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Author Topic: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017  (Read 1461 times)

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WizardofhOgZ

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SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« on: April 12, 2017, 03:31:54 pm »


. . . at 6-6.  And their pre-season ratings have us at #10 in the SEC.

Just presented as an "FYI" . . .

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/fpi
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pigheaded

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2017, 03:38:53 pm »

Can't argue
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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2017, 03:46:59 pm »

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rhames

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2017, 03:58:46 pm »

They have us beating Miss State and Mizzou. Not having us picked to beat Ole Miss is a little puzzling…but that's about it. Our bad play (at times) last year is really sticking with us. Until we show everyone something different, this is how we'll be treated.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2017, 04:05:02 pm »

Not surprised in the least. In fact, it sounds as if ESPiN may have just used the consensus of most HV members.  ;)
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Steef

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2017, 04:10:33 pm »

. . . at 6-6.  And their pre-season ratings have us at #10 in the SEC.

Just presented as an "FYI" . . .

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/fpi

In their Arkansas header, they list us at a probability of 6.1 wins. But if you scroll down the list, they only pick us for 5 wins. Three rent-a-wins and two conference wins. They pick us to lose to TCU.

Not to be a 'downer', but those two (supposed) conference wins come at the end of a 10 game continuous run, so they're not 'gimmees' either.

However, I think we have a shot against TAMU & Ole Miss...so it COULD be as good as 7-5.

We WILL score points. Our offense should be able to move the ball. But we could see some basketball-like scores.
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Atlhogfan1

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2017, 04:13:22 pm »

They have us beating Miss State and Mizzou. Not having us picked to beat Ole Miss is a little puzzling…but that's about it. Our bad play (at times) last year is really sticking with us. Until we show everyone something different, this is how we'll be treated.

OM is a road game.  Bama, SC and LSU road games.  A&M "neutral".  This will factor into the simulated results.  3 of the top 6 in the FPI are in our division.

SC is going to get some darkhorse contender attention but I don't buy it. 
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Al Boarland

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2017, 07:47:06 pm »

I'm extremely concerned with the defense. Offense is having their way and that's what the D should be doing in the spring. Hell, they see the same plays every day and still can't stop it?
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bondhue

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2017, 10:45:30 pm »

I projected us at 6-7 regular season wins last year.   After leaving the important home games early because they were clearly lost by halftime, I did not buy tickets this year.  Too painful.
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jgphillips3

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2017, 08:54:44 am »

I'm extremely concerned with the defense. Offense is having their way and that's what the D should be doing in the spring. Hell, they see the same plays every day and still can't stop it?

To be fair, before Austin was planted like a tree too many times (or the beginning of a second half) our offense was pretty potent and will be salty this year.  I would say we will be one of the most efficient offenses in the SEC and at least in the top 4 or 5 offenses in the league this year in a variety of measures.  Our defense is a brand new install and isn't even 100% installed yet so there is no way our defense should be anywhere close to able to cope with Enos' 3rd year offense in the first Spring of its install.  By fall I expect to see competent defense with some errors the first four games or so but continual improvement especially in the last half of the season as they grow comfortable with it.
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Al Boarland

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2017, 09:33:01 am »

To be fair, before Austin was planted like a tree too many times (or the beginning of a second half) our offense was pretty potent and will be salty this year.  I would say we will be one of the most efficient offenses in the SEC and at least in the top 4 or 5 offenses in the league this year in a variety of measures.  Our defense is a brand new install and isn't even 100% installed yet so there is no way our defense should be anywhere close to able to cope with Enos' 3rd year offense in the first Spring of its install.  By fall I expect to see competent defense with some errors the first four games or so but continual improvement especially in the last half of the season as they grow comfortable with it.

Let's say you're right. Iit's possible. However, they see the plays everyday, so you would expect they can line up and tackle when they know what's going to happen. This defense will see plenty of players just as talented as the ones we have on O. Bottom line, I don't think we have the ponies on D. We don't have the LB's for this system and we don't have the quality depth.
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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2017, 09:55:55 am »

They must have seen our defense play last year
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hogcard1964

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2017, 09:57:10 am »

. . . at 6-6.  And their pre-season ratings have us at #10 in the SEC.

Just presented as an "FYI" . . .

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/fpi

As disappointing as this would be, I can actually see us winning only 7 games.

I think I saw they had Tenner winning 9.
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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2017, 10:00:24 am »

That Loss to the zoo and WV in the bowl hurt us in the eyes of the media.
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Jackrabbit Hog

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2017, 10:01:28 am »

That Loss to the zoo and WV in the bowl hurt us in the eyes of the media.

Actually VaTech, Delta, but same difference really...

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Jackrabbit Hog

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #16 on: April 13, 2017, 10:02:18 am »

Interestingly, if you read the first half of what's written about us, it looks like we will win 10-11 games.  But then when you read the second half, you see we only win 6 or 7.
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colbs

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #17 on: April 13, 2017, 10:30:21 am »

I think the FPI projections have been off the last few years for Arkansas.  Was it last year they only had the Hogs winning 4 or 5?  Think they had them underdogs in like every game but like 4.
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rhames

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #18 on: April 13, 2017, 10:38:47 am »

I think the FPI projections have been off the last few years for Arkansas.  Was it last year they only had the Hogs winning 4 or 5?  Think they had them underdogs in like every game but like 4.


I think it had us at 6 or 7. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #19 on: April 13, 2017, 11:42:00 am »

Regardless of FPI's I believe that Arkansas' Scoring Off will go up to 35 ppg from 30.3 last year and our Scoring Defense will go down from 31.1 to about 24 ppg. The offense should be slightly improved and if the defense can just cut the number of big plays allowed in half, we will see an improved scoring defense.

Now what that equates to in terms of a predicted record for next year, I guess everyone can debate.
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Al Boarland

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2017, 11:59:17 am »

Regardless of FPI's I believe that Arkansas' Scoring Off will go up to 35 ppg from 30.3 last year and our Scoring Defense will go down from 31.1 to about 24 ppg. The offense should be slightly improved and if the defense can just cut the number of big plays allowed in half, we will see an improved scoring defense.

Now what that equates to in terms of a predicted record for next year, I guess everyone can debate.
Seems like DB's are struggling currently. Still time to improve. I'm more concerned with RB's rolling up 400 yards in a scrimmage when the D should know it's coming.
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Deep Shoat

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2017, 12:04:45 pm »

I projected us at 6-7 regular season wins last year.   After leaving the important home games early because they were clearly lost by halftime, I did not buy tickets this year.  Too painful.
Well ain't you an awesome fan! 
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hogcard1964

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2017, 12:05:03 pm »

Seems like DB's are struggling currently. Still time to improve. I'm more concerned with RB's rolling up 400 yards in a scrimmage when the D should know it's coming.

I think as long as we don't see players literally giving up on D, as they did several times beginning in the Auburn blowout, I just can't imagine us being any worse on the defensive side of the ball.  Some of these kids flat out quit last season. Or more aptly put, "appeared to quit".  The defenders jogging after being beat was disheartening.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2017, 12:13:45 pm »

Seems like DB's are struggling currently. Still time to improve. I'm more concerned with RB's rolling up 400 yards in a scrimmage when the D should know it's coming.

Yeah I read your similar reaction above. I think that any of us that are passing judgement on how the kids are executing a new defensive scheme that they are still learning and probably isn't even 50% installed yet, are way off the mark. Now if they are still having problems in August when practice opens, then there is cause for concern. Right now? No.
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farfromgroovins

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2017, 12:52:09 pm »

I read it in another thread about how spring practice is viewed.
Offense rolls then our defense sux.
Defense shuts down the offense then our offense sux.

That's what I call a conundrum like Chuck Norris' right fist and his left fist. What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?

I think our D grows up some this year and we win 8 which includes our bowl and our losses are "respectable."
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Al Boarland

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2017, 01:04:51 pm »

Yeah I read your similar reaction above. I think that any of us that are passing judgement on how the kids are executing a new defensive scheme that they are still learning and probably isn't even 50% installed yet, are way off the mark. Now if they are still having problems in August when practice opens, then there is cause for concern. Right now? No.
It doesn't take until August to be concerned about the talent level on Defense.
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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #26 on: April 13, 2017, 04:25:27 pm »

I don't have the link but an article I read today on ESPN by Max Olson "Tom Herman Cranks Up Physicality in first spring practice at Texas". Yes I hate Texass as much as anyone. If you read it you will see similar issues. Wonder why we lost to Auburn so bad and then the skid at the last 2 games.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2017, 05:35:00 pm »

I don't have the link but an article I read today on ESPN by Max Olson "Tom Herman Cranks Up Physicality in first spring practice at Texas". Yes I hate Texass as much as anyone. If you read it you will see similar issues. Wonder why we lost to Auburn so bad and then the skid at the last 2 games.

A lack of physicality had nothing to do with the Auburn loss. They jumped on us right out of the chute and what plagued us all season long was the same thing that plagued us against Auburn.

Auburn had 18 big plays for 440 of their 632 yards. 18-440-24.4 yds p/play. The other 51 plays that they ran yielded 192 yards or 3.8 yards p/play. Both T/O's ended up in Auburn TD's and, we were 8 games in without a break and without enough depth to back up the starters. It was just a bad game for everyone involved and being down 28-3 at the half was too much for a team that lacked leadership to overcome a bad 1st half.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2017, 05:54:48 pm by MuskogeeHogFan »
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HF#1

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Re: SIAP . . . ESPN's FPI projects our record for 2017
« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2017, 07:11:04 pm »

Seems about right.
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