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Author Topic: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?  (Read 3620 times)

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HiggiePiggy

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #50 on: April 09, 2017, 05:31:11 pm »

Lot's of thought and analysis and reading going into some of these posts. Let's see...Alabama? Nope.

It's more of we haven't beaten them in a decade.  The same will be said for Texas A&M also if we keep losing to them.
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Hawgar The Horrible

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #51 on: April 09, 2017, 05:33:37 pm »

The odds for a win are improving with every passing year.
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HamSammich

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #52 on: April 09, 2017, 06:01:36 pm »

The odds for a win are improving with every passing year.

Actually the true Mathematical odds stay 50/50 each year. Just like when you flip a coin and it's heads 8 times... it's 50/50 heads comes up again.


But from a gambling statistical insight you are right. We beat Bama this year. Book it. I called that play chuck.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #53 on: April 09, 2017, 06:22:24 pm »

It's more of we haven't beaten them in a decade.  The same will be said for Texas A&M also if we keep losing to them.

Team strengths and weaknesses change every year, even for the teams that typically reside at the top of the college football rankings. Nothing is static, there is always an ebb and flow.
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The Hawg Marshal

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #54 on: April 09, 2017, 06:23:09 pm »

We'll need to keep that guy from signaling our plays across the field to have a chance. I hope we beat them and a&m.
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Poker_hog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #55 on: April 09, 2017, 06:44:09 pm »

Team strengths and weaknesses change every year, even for the teams that typically reside at the top of the college football rankings. Nothing is static, there is always an ebb and flow.

The recruiting advantage they've enjoyed over us has been very static.  That has been the issue.  If we played a team that we constantly outrecruited by 25 spots in the rankings I'd expect to beat them 9/10 years.
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247Hog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #56 on: April 09, 2017, 06:44:12 pm »

I will say...if we win, it'll be because of Jalen Hurts. He IMO is the weakest QB we've seen them have for years. Kentucky did a really good job controlling him and came close to an upset. Ruin his day, we have a chance.
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Danny J

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #57 on: April 09, 2017, 06:54:17 pm »

Less than a 5% chance.  If it was a home game I'd say 20%.
I am with ya on that
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HamSammich

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #58 on: April 09, 2017, 07:17:45 pm »

Quitters that shroud them self in a cloak of "realism" still are what they are. You can see it on the news and in life every day.
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arlhog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #59 on: April 09, 2017, 07:39:32 pm »

They have more talent on offense and more talent on defense.  They are well coached and play good special teams.   We could beat them, but the odds are stacked against us.   It would be a big upset for us to win and being someone that plays the odds you have to say bama wins again this year.  I hate Alabama almost as much as I hate texas but I don't see us beating them as long as saban is there.
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Hoggish1

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #60 on: April 09, 2017, 08:34:48 pm »

YES!
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HiggiePiggy

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #61 on: April 09, 2017, 08:44:28 pm »

The recruiting advantage they've enjoyed over us has been very static.  That has been the issue.  If we played a team that we constantly outrecruited by 25 spots in the rankings I'd expect to beat them 9/10 years.

In this case it's 10/10 and going on a possible 11/11.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #63 on: April 09, 2017, 10:03:07 pm »

Is this the year that we beat Alabama? I know, hard to say right now and we know that Alabama always seems to be deep enough in talent that when one player leaves it always seem like it is just, next man up. That could be the case again this year but it does look like they are losing an awful lot of experienced talent from their team last year. Lets look at it by position group.

QB
We know Hurts is back and he is pretty special but behind him (after the defection of so many QBs) they have Montana Murphy from Trophy Club, TX who didnt see a snap LY. They did sign two 4-stars in Tua Tagovailoa of Honolulu, HI and Mac Jones of Jacksonville, FL, but they better hope that they can keep Hurts upright.

Pros: Lack of experienced depth behind Hurts. Hurts plays a style that is liable to get himself ... hurt.
Cons: If Hurts is healthy, based on recent history with the hogs defense, I'd much rather the opposing team have a qb like Mallett than a Nick Marshall. This is a different year, but different coordinators haven't made a difference in the past.

That being said, Hurts was not rated as one of the top 10 returning players in the SEC next season and Austin Allen was. Austin was also just in his first year of starting and thus we should expect a decent jump in production from him from year 1 to year 2.

Adv Arkansas in this position.

Quote
RB
They are in a good position here with everyone returning that contributed to 2700 yards rushing and another 297 yards receiving.

We are in a similar boat to them in this regard. From the looks of things, they are going back to their older offense with a run heavy team so I expect them to have more running yards than us. Our defense will need to be able to stop the run vs this team more than the pass IMO.

Just going off of past levels of success, I'm going to guess that Bama's backs are probably more athletic than ours; however, I don't think the gap is terribly high. Further, we have 3 guys that I'd feel confident could each go over 1k yards next year, though given our passing attack and the third guy being a true freshmen, I'm betting we "only" have the 2 go over 1k.

Adv: Probably a slight advantage to Bama, but not by much.

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TE
Gone is O.J. Howards 37 career starts and his 45 receptions for 595 yards LY. They return 3 TEs with any experience at all, sharing 10 starts between them along with 8 receptions for 83 yards and 0 TDs.

Bama is going to have some good players they can replace Howard with, but Howard has been anomalously talented by their standards, they didn't use him well enough, and they don't actually have a great history of TE's under Saban. Only have had 2 TE's drafted, in the 2012 and '13 drafts, and both went in the 7th round. That said, I'd expect a similar amount of TE success/threat as we had this past year. Yeah, our TE's were there, they did some blocking, they caught some passes, but they weren't the position group leading our offense by any stretch.

In contrast, I expect our TE group next year to be much better. Cantrell, O'Grady, and Gragg will be at the top of the pack as far as experience on the team (unless Kraus remains) with Cantrell getting extensive playing time last year and O'Grady coming on strong at the end of the year. Combine that with Gunter being too talented for the coaches to keep on the sideline last year now having a full year of college and a year of some actual playing time and I'd already give our group a solid edge. However, I haven't even mentioned the addition of Patton who could come in and become our #1 TE.

Quote
WR
Alabama loses Ardarius Stewart and Gehrig Dieter who combined for 40 career starts and just LY for 69 catches for 1078 yards and 12 TDs. Of the 106 catches and 1095 yards that return 72 of those receptions for 769 yards and 7 TDs belong to one player, Calvin Ridley. Like us, they are going to have a lot of new and less experienced players taking the field.

Further, like us, this could be one of their best receiver groupings in a long while. Calvin Ridley is positioned to be the next Julio/Amari for the team. They signed the #3/4 receiver in the country and return some physically gifted, but to date mostly inexperienced receivers.

Bad news is, their inexperienced receivers are a lot more experienced than ours. Good news is, I like our group overall more than theirs. They wanted Jordan Jones badly but we kept him. Coming into his second year, I like his odds to produce more than their true freshmen receiver simply due to practicing and having a year in the weight room. Ridley is no question better than Cornelius as an overall talent, but Cornelius isn't some pushover and has the most NFL potential of any of our key players from last season. The big difference, IMO, is the addition of Brandon Martin for us. They have a big guy receiver as well, but he's been there a while and hasn't produced despite not being behind a slough of receivers like our Pettway and Stewart were (not big guys).

Adv: Slight to arkansas.

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O-Line
Alabama loses a couple of starters and a couple more that were depth players mainly at LT (Cam Robinson) and RG (Alphonse Taylor). Korrie Kirven and Brandon Greene at LT and RT respectively, combined had just 10 starts, but 83 games of experience. Alabama will return 3/5ths of their starters with decent depth behind them.

Losing Cam Robinson will hurt them. However, returning 3+ OL is always a good thing. I don't think OL will be a liability for them at all next season. However, they should be more vulnerable to the pass rush than they have been in recent seasons. I'm still a bit skeptical of the 3-4 and our ability to utilize it well; however, we have as good a chance as any.

Our OL similarly returns a lot of experience, but we only lose 1 starter. However, with the questions at RG, we potentially only return 3 full time starters as well. We also lose our LT, but I don't think that will be as big a problem for us as them. Namely, Skipper wasn't a LT and the coaches clearly didn't want him playing there as evidenced by him not moving their till late in fall. We had more athletic players capable of playing the LT position; however, they lacked the experience of Skipper. Now, those players are more experienced and I'd bet that even if Skipper in all of his 'nother year of experience was still here, would not be our LT. Froholdt and Ragnow rival the talent of any Bama OL player. Our other players are all SEC worthy and this is shaping up to be our best OL under Bielema yet.

Adv: push.

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D-Line
Alabama was hit pretty hard by graduation and the NFL along the D-Line. They lose 75% of their career starts and 73% of their career experience. They also lose 78% of their Tackles, 83% of their TFL, 82% of their Sacks and 86% of the D-Line PBUs. Basically the only true starter that they have coming back is DaRon Payne at NT. It will be interesting to see what Saban does about this.

It's telling that they lose a higher percentage of their impact plays than their regular plays. They will inevitably reload with some good players. However, Allen was a great player even by Bama standards and there's no guarantee their reloading will be that good. Further, there will inevitably be growing pains for their DL. What was it, 2 or 3 seasons ago, they had almost zero pass rush after losing a similar amount as they lose this year. This sets up well for us. Namely, I'd guess they will be good at stopping the run and struggle to consistently get a pass rush next season. This sets up well for us as our offensive strength should be run blocking and running which would cancel out there strength while our weakness in pass blocking will be met with their weakness in pass rushing next season.

As far as personnel, I think we will be fine on the DL, with Agim, Guidry, Smith, Dean, Marshall, Jackson, Capps, and Watts. However, there are a lot of scheme questions that remain, so it is very hard to compare front 7 units b/w the two. Will our coaching staff even want the DL to get any pass rush next season, or will that mean that they are no longer occupying blockers and thus are neglecting their assignment? What type of 3-4 will we be running? Really too early to say.

Adv: ? I like our personnel better in both experience and pass rushing potential, but hard to say which position group will be better due to questions about schemes.

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LBs
Even though Alabama loses 96.7% of their career starts at LB they only lose 54% of their career games at these positions which tells you that they have a lot of kids coming back who have played a great deal even though they didnt start. Still, they are losing 67% of their Tackles, 84% of their TFL, 78% of their Sacks, 70% of their PBUs and all of the LBs who made INTs last year (7) are now gone. This will probably be a down year for Alabama LBs.

That doesn't tell us that they have kids who have played a great deal. It would be possible for them to have players who have played 3 snaps in a lot of games and nothing more. What does tell us that there is a fair amount of actual experience in the players despite not many starts is that 1/3 of the tackles among the LB group return. The good news there is that the players made about a third of the tackles, but were very down on the impact plays. For example, they were half as effective at getting a tfl as they were a tackle and so on. Compare that to the likes of DeJone Harris who similarly was only a backup player and didn't start, but was proportionally more likely to make a big play.

Which brings us to our players. Sadly, this is a similar post to the DL one. We lose Ellis, but return ample experience in Greenlaw, Eugene, Harris, and Ramsey from last year. Further, we have guys like Taylor waiting in the wing as pass rushing specialists as well. Thus again, I think we are a better set up jimmy and joe wise to get pressure on the qb than Bama next season, we still have a lot of x's and o's questions. Bama's seem to be good at defending the pass (interceptions are a rare occurrence, but the pbu's being mostly proportional to tackles suggests the backups were just as good at that as the starters).

Adv: ?

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Secondary
Everyone but Eddie Jackson (SS) returns so Alabama will have a good Secondary again.

And everybody but Collins (and Dean) return for us. Tolliver and Pulley are great corners. Ramirez shows a lot of promise and Coley is a good SS for us. However, Curtis, Calloway, Curl, and Brown IMO are going to be on a whole other level for us in due time. How quickly they progress for us remains to be seen. However, with the Bama game coming around mid-season, if any of them are ready to play significant playing time as a true freshmen, it should be happening by this game and I expect at least a couple will be seeing significant snaps by then.

Adv Bama, but I think we more than hold our own at the corner position. I think our new safeties (including Micah) will be much more competitive with Bama's talent in the future, but it takes time for players to develop and Bama has been stronger in the safety department than corner.

Quote
FGs/XPs/Punting
Adam Griffith is finally gone though he didnt exactly set the world on fire LY converting on only 75% of his FGs (21 of 28).
JK Scott is returning for his Senior year as their Punter.

We'd been spoiled with Kicker with the likes of Hocker. Hedlund's woes were seemingly on par for a Bama starter. Hedlund's been improved this spring, so worst case scenario, I don't think they have any kicking advantage.

As for punting, Scott is a very good punter. However, we've been really spoiled at punter as well going from Breeding, to Irwin-Hill, to Baker, and Blake Johnson in his limited punting duties did extremely well as well. Scott as a senior is an advantage to Johnson's first year starting, but I don't think the gap will be too big.

Adv: push.

Quote
Is this the down year that everyone always hopes for from Alabama? Possibly. If it isnt this year with all that they lose on defense at TE and WR, when will it be? We need to take advantage of this.

2010 was the biggest down year Bama's had in a while.

Honestly, I don't think their losses at TE or WR will have much of an impact on their team this year. They return a solid OL, real good RB's, a running qb, and enough talent at WR to keep their offense from being one-dimensional. If our 3-4 scheme isn't able to stop the run, then we are going to be in trouble. While normally that is going to be an issue, against somebody like OM or Mizzou, I still like our ability to win so long as we can have some success with the pass defense. I think our personnel sets up great next year to be good pass rushers and a good secondary, but I honestly have no clue how we will be stopping the run. First scrimmage didn't go well, but we return a very talented OL and RB's in a consistent scheme while the D is completely new, so it's just really hard to make any judgements yet.

The big questions for them and our biggest reasons to win come on the other sides of the ball. They lost a lot on defense from last year overall, and particularly in regards to a pass rush. Their backups had significant playing time, but also plenty of playing time to show that they did not excel at rushing the passer. Past 2 years Bama has had 50+ sacks led by 2 players no longer there. They had more than 30 sacks in only 3 of the previous 7 years and never more than 35. If history is any indicator, they could very well be down in the 20 cumulative sack range next season while being solid at stopping the run. This bodes extremely well for Austin Allen who despite their pass rush last year, was able to effectively move the ball, passing for 400 yards and getting 30 points on them last year. Their secondary will improve with experience for sure. However, no secondary can cover forever when their DL isn't getting a pass rush. Combine that with our improvements on the OL and at RB should at worst cancel out their run defense and still allow us to have a modest ground game, and we are set up to be able to move the ball and score on them.

Which brings us back to the first part with us stopping their run. If they are able to run the ball on us, they could keep our offense on the sideline for long stretches, which really hurts the passing game. While I think we can still have a modest run game assuming they sell out to stop the run knowing they can't generate a pass rush, we wouldn't be able to lean on it to move the ball.

However, if we do see solid improvement on defense and our scheme allows us to utilize the very good talent that we have on the defensive side of the ball, then this is our best chance, IMO to beat Bama since 2010. We have more talent than many hog fans like to admit for some strange reason. This is borne out by out ability to play competitively all 3 of the past years. In 2014, our defense shut down their offense, but our offense couldn't move the ball. 2015, we were neck and neck for 3 quarters but couldn't sustain the effort. 2016, we moved the ball on them, but couldn't stop them from moving it as well and lost the shootout. Our offense is more prepared to move the ball this year than they were last year and their defense is even less set up to stop it. However, will our defense be able to slow down their offense enough for us to win?
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oldbooniehog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #64 on: April 09, 2017, 10:18:34 pm »

no
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jkstock04

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #65 on: April 09, 2017, 10:48:00 pm »

At Bama this year. Nope. Other than Ole Miss I can't think of anyone in recent years who has beat them at home.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #66 on: April 09, 2017, 10:55:18 pm »

At Bama this year. Nope. Other than Ole Miss I can't think of anyone in recent years who has beat them at home.

Rebels in 2015.
Aggies in 2012.
LSU in 2011.
Auburn in 2010.
UGA, LSU, and ULM in 2007
MSU, Auburn in 2006

Suffice it to say, it has become increasingly infrequent.
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #67 on: April 10, 2017, 06:59:16 am »

Do we have a chance? Yes. But it is a slim chance. I have a lot of respect for what Saban has built and they are the one sure-lock loss for us.

Then you add in the new defensive scheme and the variables simply do not look good for us to shock the world that Saturday.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #68 on: April 10, 2017, 07:01:30 am »

So how much talent does Alabama lose this year? It is possible (according to at least one mock draft) that they could have as many as 10 players drafted in the first 4 Rounds of the draft. Last time that happened? Never. They are expected to place 5 in the 1st Round alone and could have as many as 12 players drafted. Now Alabama doesn't lose many games but twice recently when they have had 8 and 9 players drafted they followed up that draft with a season where they lost 2 games. I expect that there will be an opportunity to catch Alabama in a slightly down period (for them) where they will lose at least 2 games.
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #69 on: April 10, 2017, 07:08:15 am »

So how much talent does Alabama lose this year? It is possible (according to at least one mock draft) that they could have as many as 10 players drafted in the first 4 Rounds of the draft. Last time that happened? Never. They are expected to place 5 in the 1st Round alone and could have as many as 12 players drafted. Now Alabama doesn't lose many games but twice recently when they have had 8 and 9 players drafted they followed up that draft with a season where they lost 2 games. I expect that there will be an opportunity to catch Alabama in a slightly down period (for them) where they will lose at least 2 games.

Those are impressive numbers and are results of their consistent #1 recruiting classes over the last five years. The key question is how much playing time do the new starters have? Those new starters were most likely 4 and 5-star recruits.

If they are juniors or seniors then most likely they have seen the field a few times and know the playbook quite well.

I hope you are right and I will celebrate the win big time. Just not seeing it as they reload every year.
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thefisher

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #70 on: April 10, 2017, 07:40:29 am »

Arkansas will not just line up and beat Bama.  Simply to much talent.

However, if Bama has some turnovers and/or a couple key injuries then they are definitely beatable.  The Hogs will need some help via turnovers or injuries.  However, both those things do happen at times and if the timing is right the Hogs can certainly win it.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #71 on: April 10, 2017, 07:50:46 am »

Those are impressive numbers and are results of their consistent #1 recruiting classes over the last five years. The key question is how much playing time do the new starters have? Those new starters were most likely 4 and 5-star recruits.

If they are juniors or seniors then most likely they have seen the field a few times and know the playbook quite well.

I hope you are right and I will celebrate the win big time. Just not seeing it as they reload every year.

You can get some of that information in the OP of this thread.
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The NewEra

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #72 on: April 10, 2017, 08:20:35 am »

If we were to beat Alabama it would be one heck of a way to finish A. Allen, Jackson, Cornelius, Ragnow, Liddell and several others careers at Arkansas.
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jkstock04

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #73 on: April 10, 2017, 08:22:54 am »

You can get some of that information in the OP of this thread.
We see one of these threads every year, but at least this time you brought some objective reasoning behind it and it's not just another mindless homer thread.

Maybe Bama will be "down" this year and they lose a couple games in conference. Stranger things have happened.
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go hogues

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #74 on: April 10, 2017, 08:23:35 am »

This team didn't beat Mizzou. We're not gonna beat Bama - especially at their place.
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #75 on: April 10, 2017, 08:29:39 am »

This team didn't beat Mizzou. We're not gonna beat Bama - especially at their place.

The team that lost to Mizzou is not the team that will be walking onto the field this season. While I agree we most likely will not beat Bama - losing to Mizzou is not one of the reasons.

As the OP pointed out, CFB teams are different each year. Last year's team is not this year's team.
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carolinahogger

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #76 on: April 10, 2017, 08:42:15 am »

Muskogee, I just read every post to here.  Bama has overall better talent, better overall coaching, the winners mental mindset and a refuse to be denied attitude.  We've caught BAMA 2 years ago playing their worst game of the season against us at our house while we were moving along decent and they still beat us.  They have good players to replace any losses they had LY.  Usually 2 or more good players per position lost.  Saban is working overtime understanding every nuance of his team and his laying the framework for another Championship type season.  The only opportunity for us to beat Bama this coming season is for them to take us lightly and usually BAMA doesn't take teams lightly.



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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #77 on: April 10, 2017, 09:19:03 am »

We see one of these threads every year, but at least this time you brought some objective reasoning behind it and it's not just another mindless homer thread.

Maybe Bama will be "down" this year and they lose a couple games in conference. Stranger things have happened.

Obviously Alabama probably does a better job of replenishing the ranks than anyone else in the conference but the thing that I am looking at as well is that they have never had this many players being drafted away on any single team in any single draft. Now we all know that Saban is very good at what he does but even he can have experienced depth issues when he has a record number of quality players leaving for the NFL Draft.

I'll admit that the odds aren't very high for us to go in and pull the upset at their place and yeah, he has 6 games to get his players acclimated before we meet, but the good news is that they have to play 6 games in a row without a rest before they get to us so we can hope that they have developed some nagging injuries before we play. And, with the QB defections that they have experienced they had better hope that they can keep Jalen Hurts healthy.

The odds may not be all that high for a potential upset, but we have to have a better chance this year than in any recent years.
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redleg

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #78 on: April 10, 2017, 10:13:59 am »

If this year's game was in Fayetteville, I would say yes. But since it is in Tuscaloosa, and since the Hogs haven't proven they can beat the Tide in a decade, I will say ... No, Arkansas will not beat Alabama in 2017
I do not see Arkansas beating LSU in Baton Rouge, either, and I can also see Auburn coming to DWRRS and leaving with a W.
However, I believe that the Hogs can finally end their five game losing streak to Texas A&M this season. The Aggies are ripe for a butt whipping on a neutral field, after losing key starters on both sides of the ball (QB, multiple WR's, both OT's, both DE's, LB, S).
9-3 for Arkansas in 2017.
 :razorback:
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NaturalStateReb

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #79 on: April 10, 2017, 10:34:57 am »

Some year, Arkansas is going to break through and beat Alabama again, but that's probably going to be a year when Arkansas gets Bama at home.  Since the game will be at Tuscaloosa this year, I don't think 2017 is the year.

Really, Arkansas' 2017 schedule is one the most difficult they've had in a while. 
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #80 on: April 10, 2017, 10:43:31 am »

Lot's of thought and analysis and reading going into some of these posts. Let's see...Alabama? Nope.

Thought and analysis by fans don't win football games.  Superior talent usually wins.  Superior talent combined with superior coaching win an overwhelming percentage of the time.  Vastly superior talent combined with vastly superior coaching combined with home field advantage AND a winner's mentality almost always win.

Is there a chance?  Of course there is.  Appalachian State beat Michigan.  Then again, Saban wasn't coaching Michigan.  "There is a chance" doesn't mean the answer is yes.
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #81 on: April 10, 2017, 10:44:48 am »

NO
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #82 on: April 10, 2017, 10:49:09 am »

Is this the year that we beat Alabama? No! :razorback:
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #83 on: April 10, 2017, 12:45:55 pm »

Love the OP's optimism, but...
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #84 on: April 10, 2017, 01:22:05 pm »

Some year, Arkansas is going to break through and beat Alabama again, but that's probably going to be a year when Arkansas gets Bama at home.  Since the game will be at Tuscaloosa this year, I don't think 2017 is the year.

Really, Arkansas' 2017 schedule is one the most difficult they've had in a while.

It really isn't. The calculated SoS is either the lowest or a close 2nd lowest that we've had in the past decade.

Ignoring the numbers and just looking at the schedule, it's the by far the easiest schedule we've had under Bielema as well.

In no way shape or form is this upcoming schedule one of the most difficult they've had in a while. The biggest negative is how early the bye is. That is a negative no matter how you draw it.

The games where location isn't really a plus or a minus are on the road. The games where location could be the difference b/w a win or a loss are at home. We have one of, if not the easiest draw in the east and the only potential easier game might be vanderbilt and that isn't a given to be an easier game.

Yeah, Bama on the road is more difficult than Bama at home, but the difference is like trying to hit a 6" target with a bow and arrow from 100 yards while blindfolded galloping on a horse vs trying to hit a 10" target under the same circumstances. Harder? Yes. Does it really make a difference though? No. Compare that to getting the likes of MSU, Auburn, TCU, and Mizzou at home and the difference in difficulty there is like firing a .45LC out of a Taurus judge at 30 yards and hitting the bullseye vs firing a .22 at 5 yards which is a big difference.
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #85 on: April 10, 2017, 01:54:11 pm »

In this case it's 10/10 and going on a possible 11/11.

We are definitely overdue.  There were 2 games in last ten years that could have gone either way.  Unfortunately we lost both.  But I think as long as they are getting the number one recruiting class annually and we are constantly in the 20s we shouldn't expect to win more than 1 in 10.
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HiggiePiggy

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #86 on: April 10, 2017, 02:05:59 pm »

The bigger question should be is this the year we stop shooting ourselves in the foot against Texas A&M.  Alabama is extremely well coached. They have averaged less than 2 losses a year since Saban has taken over. Saban has averaged almost 1 loss a season in conference since starting and 4 of those losses were in his first year(12 total losses in conference in 10 years.)

I don't care about Alabama. I care about how we do against the rest of the league.  Stop shooting ourselves in other games and we would be a 8 to 10 win team almost yearly.  2 games we were ahead by 24 in the second half. Went from a 9 and 4 to a 7 and 6 team. Figure out the second half and we are a yearly contender in the sec.   
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RT1941

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #87 on: April 10, 2017, 02:35:41 pm »

Thought and analysis by fans don't win football games.  Superior talent usually wins.  Superior talent combined with superior coaching win an overwhelming percentage of the time.  Vastly superior talent combined with vastly superior coaching combined with home field advantage AND a winner's mentality almost always win.

Is there a chance?  Of course there is.  Appalachian State beat Michigan.  Then again, Saban wasn't coaching Michigan.  "There is a chance" doesn't mean the answer is yes.
This.  Alabama hasn't had a down year since 2010, and the lost a total of 3 games that year.

They went 14-1 last season with a true-frosh, 18 yr old QB and a stable of RB's that had no experience when the season started,  that offense averaged +/-40 ppg and they return a lot of those players.  If Saban has ever fielded an SEC defense ranked out of the top 10 in the country, I'd like to know the year.

Every opponent they face has a chance of beating them,  so there is definitely a chance for the Hogs.  That chance is slimmer than thin slice bacon....but there is a chance.
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RT1941

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #88 on: April 10, 2017, 02:38:44 pm »

I don't care about Alabama. I care about how we do against the rest of the league.  Stop shooting ourselves in other games and we would be a 8 to 10 win team almost yearly.  2 games we were ahead by 24 in the second half. Went from a 9 and 4 to a 7 and 6 team. Figure out the second half and we are a yearly contender in the sec.   
BINGO!   Good post.

Screw Alabama, if the Hogs can stop crapping the bed and find a way to beat the rest of the conference, then the Hogs will be a top 10 team on the brink of great things.
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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #89 on: April 10, 2017, 02:39:12 pm »

I think this could possibly be one of the better Arkansas offenses and you have to score to win in the SEC these days and usually a lot. Bama fans are going to say this is probably the most talent (85) coach Saban has had since he came to the Capstone. On paper, this recruiting class was freaky good even by our standard. Of the total class, 16 are EE and are now going through spring ball. We bring back the SEC offensive player of the year in QB Jalen Hurts. I would save judgment till the opening game in Atlanta against FSU. It could easily be against the top 2 teams in the nation.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #90 on: April 10, 2017, 02:51:22 pm »

2014: Alabama's total defense was behind Arkansas (12th vs 10th).

For passing defense, theirs ranked 24th last season. You remove our game and they jump to 7th..., ranked 30th in 2015, 59th in 2014, 11th in 2013, 13th in 2010, and 30th in 2008.

for TFL: they ranked 16th in 2014, 86th in 2013, 29th in 2012, 17th in 2011, 59th in 2010, 13th in 2009, 36th in 2008

for INT's, Bama was 14th in 2016, 70th in 2014, 73rd in 2013, 12th in 2012, 43rd in 2011, and 39th in 2008

sacks: 40th in 2014, 80th in 2013, 16th in 2012, 29th in 2011, 49th in 2010, 29th in 2009, 55th in 2008

3rd down % allowed: 41st in 2014, 23rd in 2013, 14th in 2012, 12th in 2010,

Scoring defense though, they were top 10 since at least 2008.
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RT1941

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #91 on: April 10, 2017, 03:20:58 pm »

Thanks Benny.  They seem to always field a top shelf defense, high scoring offense, middling special teams and they consistently contend for championships all while funneling players to the NFL.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #92 on: April 10, 2017, 04:31:23 pm »

Thanks Benny.  They seem to always field a top shelf defense, high scoring offense, middling special teams and they consistently contend for championships all while funneling players to the NFL.

It was a pretty interesting exercise to go through.

Namely, Bama is not always a ferocious play making defense. Their passing defense over the Bielema era has been consistently outside the top 10 while it was ironically much better during the Petrino years. Their TFL's, sacks, and int's are still consistently good, but not elite by any stretch.

There are only two things that they really do quite well year after year. They stop the run, and they are minimize your scoring.
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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #93 on: April 10, 2017, 05:05:23 pm »

2014: Alabama's total defense was behind Arkansas (12th vs 10th).

For passing defense, theirs ranked 24th last season. You remove our game and they jump to 7th..., ranked 30th in 2015, 59th in 2014, 11th in 2013, 13th in 2010, and 30th in 2008.

for TFL: they ranked 16th in 2014, 86th in 2013, 29th in 2012, 17th in 2011, 59th in 2010, 13th in 2009, 36th in 2008

for INT's, Bama was 14th in 2016, 70th in 2014, 73rd in 2013, 12th in 2012, 43rd in 2011, and 39th in 2008

sacks: 40th in 2014, 80th in 2013, 16th in 2012, 29th in 2011, 49th in 2010, 29th in 2009, 55th in 2008

3rd down % allowed: 41st in 2014, 23rd in 2013, 14th in 2012, 12th in 2010,

Scoring defense though, they were top 10 since at least 2008.



Bama total defense:

2008 -  #3
2009 -  #2
2010 - #5
2011 - # 1
2012 - #1
2013 - #5
2014 - #12
2015 - #3
2016 - #1

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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #94 on: April 10, 2017, 05:10:18 pm »



Bama total defense:

2008 -  #3
2009 -  #2
2010 - #5
2011 - # 1
2012 - #1
2013 - #5
2014 - #12
2015 - #3
2016 - #1

Every year I didn't list meant it was either #10 in the country or better. I was only asked for when Bama didn't have a top 10 defense.

Further, I only looked at the stats I thought to be most important to determining the ranking of a defense, well, except for red-zone defense. Probably should have included that as well. Given the tide's scoring defense results, I'm guessing their red zone scoring will follow suit.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #95 on: April 10, 2017, 05:49:27 pm »

It was a pretty interesting exercise to go through.

Namely, Bama is not always a ferocious play making defense. Their passing defense over the Bielema era has been consistently outside the top 10 while it was ironically much better during the Petrino years. Their TFL's, sacks, and int's are still consistently good, but not elite by any stretch.

There are only two things that they really do quite well year after year. They stop the run, and they are minimize your scoring.

I think they try to make you earn your yards and then wear you out as the game wears on. It seems to be a war of attrition on defense. But I will say that 12 times since 2002 their average in terms of defensive yards allowed has been below 300 yards/Gm. Only 3 times has it been over 300 yards/Gm. Not even going into scoring defense, that is pretty doggone exceptional and will win a lot of games for you even if you have an average offense.
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #96 on: April 10, 2017, 05:52:32 pm »

I think they try to make you earn your yards and then wear you out as the game wears on. It seems to be a war of attrition on defense. But I will say that 12 times since 2002 their average in terms of defensive yards allowed has been below 300 yards/Gm. Only 3 times has it been over 300 yards/Gm. Not even going into scoring defense, that is pretty doggone exceptional and will win a lot of games for you even if you have an average offense.

Fo sho.
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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #97 on: April 10, 2017, 05:54:09 pm »

Every year I didn't list meant it was either #10 in the country or better. I was only asked for when Bama didn't have a top 10 defense.

Further, I only looked at the stats I thought to be most important to determining the ranking of a defense, well, except for red-zone defense. Probably should have included that as well. Given the tide's scoring defense results, I'm guessing their red zone scoring will follow suit.

It's all so subjective that it's almost impossible to compare even considering defensive total yards with the same football team. In 2011 Bama had the #1 defense, giving up 183.6 yards/game. In 2016 Bama had the #1 defense, giving up 261.8 yards/game. The difference wasn't as much defensive personnel, but the offensive identity we chose.

Many more teams are still evolving to take advantage of the offensive rule changes. Even Bama has taken the, if you can't beat them, join them approach. As we do, we become a much more big play team and with up-tempo, spread concepts, you expose the defense to more reps per game, more minutes per game and more yardage and scoring as a result. Bama, this year has talked extensively about tweaking the balance between power, spread, and ball control. It's why we went after the OC that we did.   
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #98 on: April 10, 2017, 06:08:00 pm »

It's all so subjective that it's almost impossible to compare even considering defensive total yards with the same football team. In 2011 Bama had the #1 defense, giving up 183.6 yards/game. In 2016 Bama had the #1 defense, giving up 261.8 yards/game. The difference wasn't as much defensive personnel, but the offensive identity we chose.

Many more teams are still evolving to take advantage of the offensive rule changes. Even Bama has taken the, if you can't beat them, join them approach. As we do, we become a much more big play team and with up-tempo, spread concepts, you expose the defense to more reps per game, more minutes per game and more yardage and scoring as a result. Bama, this year has talked extensively about tweaking the balance between power, spread, and ball control. It's why we went after the OC that we did.   

And you think that with the addition of Brian DaBoll as the OC, on the heels of the exit of Kiffin and Sarkisian (who definitely had that mindset) is going to see Alabama continuing with that hurry-up, wide open mindset? I see it as Saban taking back his offense and becoming more conservative than he was under Kiffin/Sarkisian. And by the way, those two screwed you guys for the NCG. No way that Clemson should have won that game.
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #99 on: April 10, 2017, 06:32:54 pm »

And you think that with the addition of Brian DaBoll as the OC, on the heels of the exit of Kiffin and Sarkisian (who definitely had that mindset) is going to see Alabama continuing with that hurry-up, wide open mindset? I see it as Saban taking back his offense and becoming more conservative than he was under Kiffin/Sarkisian. And by the way, those two screwed you guys for the NCG. No way that Clemson should have won that game.


Absolutely and coach Saban has said so on numerous occasions. You build your offense around what the QB does best, not what your OC fancies himself doing. What will change is the short yardage stuff and red zone. More pro-style, downhill running with big backs. Jalen will be under center more and from the first scrimmage we just had Saturday, it's obvious that a more concerted effort will be made in getting the ball downfield to our receivers.

I would say Sark's approach cost us badly in the NC. But Bo getting hurt was the biggest blow. Afterward, our OC lost his mind and started to throw way too much. With Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs, there was no reason to change the gameplan. Hurts still brought us back but by then our defense was out there way too long.
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