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Author Topic: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?  (Read 3619 times)

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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #100 on: April 10, 2017, 06:37:19 pm »


Absolutely and coach Saban has said so on numerous occasions. You build your offense around what the QB does best, not what your OC fancies himself doing. What will change is the short yardage stuff and red zone. More pro-style, downhill running with big backs. Jalen will be under center more and from the first scrimmage we just had Saturday, it's obvious that a more concerted effort will be made in getting the ball downfield to our receivers.

I would say Sark's approach cost us badly in the NC. But Bo getting hurt was the biggest blow. Afterward, our OC lost his mind and started to throw way too much. With Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs, there was no reason to change the gameplan. Hurts still brought us back but by then our defense was out there way too long.

That's precisely what I was referring to...more traditional Alabama offensive football running the ball with the QB under Center so that if you have a QB who can make the throws needed, offers big play opportunities downfield in the passing game out of play action. That isn't Kiffin/Sarkisian football, IMO.
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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #101 on: April 10, 2017, 06:58:26 pm »

That's precisely what I was referring to...more traditional Alabama offensive football running the ball with the QB under Center so that if you have a QB who can make the throws needed, offers big play opportunities downfield in the passing game out of play action. That isn't Kiffin/Sarkisian football, IMO.

It's definitely not Kiffin's style and Sark was going to have to tweak the O had he stuck around. Daboll is coming from an NFL team that uses spread concepts and tempo more than a lot of other NFL teams. It's also true he worked with Bennett and Gronk so there is the added dimension of the TE as a weapon. It's a position we are deep at even with Howard's departure. So with Daboll, expect the spread/uptempo to be a big part of the gameplan. With Jalen, it is what he does best.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #102 on: April 10, 2017, 07:05:25 pm »

It's definitely not Kiffin's style and Sark was going to have to tweak the O had he stuck around. Daboll is coming from an NFL team that uses spread concepts and tempo more than a lot of other NFL teams. It's also true he worked with Bennett and Gronk so there is the added dimension of the TE as a weapon. It's a position we are deep at even with Howard's departure. So with Daboll, expect the spread/uptempo to be a big part of the gameplan. With Jalen, it is what he does best.

Tell me about your TE's. Earlier in this thread I expanded a bit on Musk's position grouping breakdowns. For all of Alabama's success, and being largely a power based offense, you guys have done really poorly in the TE department which was surprising to me. Under Saban, to date you have only had 2 TE's drafted, both in the 7th round, and it has been several years since your last NFL draftee at the position. Obviously Howard is going to be this year's first TE taken, but for a team that uses power schemes, your track record at TE is really poor.

Also, that came off a bit more attacking than I meant it to be, because I do want to hear you discuss the TE's that you have returning and would be interested to hear why you haven't had TE success before Howard.
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Pork-n-Boots

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #103 on: April 10, 2017, 07:21:47 pm »

Always a chance, but I'd be shocked if we won. While they do lose a lot on defense, they reload rather than rebuild. I'm sure Saban will field another stout defense, plus I don't see us stopping their offense. aTm is VERY beatable and I'd love to win that one to get the momentum going.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #104 on: April 10, 2017, 07:34:25 pm »

Always a chance, but I'd be shocked if we won. While they do lose a lot on defense, they reload rather than rebuild. I'm sure Saban will field another stout defense, plus I don't see us stopping their offense. aTm is VERY beatable and I'd love to win that one to get the momentum going.

Everyone would be, that is why no one even considers it to be a realistic chance. The thing that is different this year is that Alabama has never lost so many quality players to the draft in any year before. That doesn't mean that they still don't have quality players, it just means that they have a great many quality, experienced players to replace and that usually isn't accomplished over one season, even for Alabama. Alabama will still be a very formidable foe in 2017 but I wouldn't be shocked if they lose 2-3 games this year and then back to the CFB Play Offs in 2018.
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #105 on: April 10, 2017, 07:41:40 pm »

Tell me about your TE's. Earlier in this thread I expanded a bit on Musk's position grouping breakdowns. For all of Alabama's success, and being largely a power based offense, you guys have done really poorly in the TE department which was surprising to me. Under Saban, to date you have only had 2 TE's drafted, both in the 7th round, and it has been several years since your last NFL draftee at the position. Obviously Howard is going to be this year's first TE taken, but for a team that uses power schemes, your track record at TE is really poor.

Also, that came off a bit more attacking than I meant it to be, because I do want to hear you discuss the TE's that you have returning and would be interested to hear why you haven't had TE success before Howard.


I'm curious, how much was the TE involved during the Petrino era? We have had some big guys playing the role, but mainly as blockers. Michael Williams, Collin Peeks, Smiley could and did catch the football. We also instituted an H-back in our pro style with a lot of pistol and spread concepts thrown in even during the McCarron/McElroy era. It never was 3 yards and a cloud of dust. With our receivers like Julio, Amari Cooper, Maze, Ridley, Stewart and a host of others, we have always had a very serious downfield policy. With Kiffin, we ran a lot of 11 personnel, one running back, one TE and 3 WRs.

From an article on Al.com:

The 3 guys that will see a lot of playing time is Hentges, Forristall and Smith.

The 6-foot-5, 255-pound Hentges is probably the top blocker out of the group. While he only has four career catches, he's played a decent amount the last two years because of his blocking ability.

Forristall and Smith, meanwhile, are more athletic and bring more to the table as receivers.

Forristall had five catches for 73 yards as a freshman last season, including a 22-yard catch during the Tide's win over LSU. The 6-foot-5 Georgia native has put on about 30 pounds since arriving in Tuscaloosa early last year, now listed at 238 pounds.

Saban referred to Forristall as Howard-like because, like Howard early in his career, Forristall needs to improve as a blocker but is a "very good receiver."

Smith has the potential to be, too. frankly Smith

While most outside the Alabama program have probably never heard of Smith, the redshirt freshman may be Alabama's most complete tight end. At 6-foot-4, 245 pounds, the former three-star recruit ran the 40-yard dash in 4.59 seconds during Alabama's spring testing and bench-pressed 425 pounds.

"This guy has a ton of talent," Hentges said of Smith. "I'm sure you guys are going to be seeing him coming up in the coming season."

The Tide also has converted running back Ronnie Clark, who is back healthy and working at a new position after two torn Achilles tendons, and 6-foot-5, 245-pound four-star freshman Major Tennison.

"Major is a young player that looks like he's got some potential and promise to maybe develop into a guy that can do all the things," Saban said, "but it'll take him a while to feel confident and comfortable."

Still, as noted by Hentges, there's "a good bit of depth."

Last year, Howard was by far the primary contributor among tight ends. This year, it may be more of a group effort as Alabama looks to take advantage of that depth and young talent.

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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #106 on: April 10, 2017, 09:14:58 pm »

TE was heavily used under Petrino with DJ Williams winning the Mackey award for the nation's top TE and being drafted in the 5th round with his backup, Chris Gragg, being used a fair amount as well until he was top dog being drafted in the 7th round, though having a much better NFL career, in part to being more NFL sized than DJ Williams was. In the Bielema era, we've since had Derby and Henry (6th and 2nd respectively) with Sprinkle in line to be drafted this year.

Reads like Bama's TE's are going to be in a similar spot to where we were last year. Losing the top dog TE and having a collection of TE's with potential but where none have really separated from the pack. You have a Will Gragg type in Hentges, a smaller O'Grady with Forristall, and DJ Williams type in Smith.

TE and QB are probably the two position groups that I wouldn't hesitate to take Arkansas' players over Bama's.
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gchamblee

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #107 on: April 11, 2017, 12:48:33 am »

Pros: Lack of experienced depth behind Hurts. Hurts plays a style that is liable to get himself ... hurt.
Cons: If Hurts is healthy, based on recent history with the hogs defense, I'd much rather the opposing team have a qb like Mallett than a Nick Marshall. This is a different year, but different coordinators haven't made a difference in the past.

That being said, Hurts was not rated as one of the top 10 returning players in the SEC next season and Austin Allen was. Austin was also just in his first year of starting and thus we should expect a decent jump in production from him from year 1 to year 2.

Adv Arkansas in this position.

We are in a similar boat to them in this regard. From the looks of things, they are going back to their older offense with a run heavy team so I expect them to have more running yards than us. Our defense will need to be able to stop the run vs this team more than the pass IMO.

Just going off of past levels of success, I'm going to guess that Bama's backs are probably more athletic than ours; however, I don't think the gap is terribly high. Further, we have 3 guys that I'd feel confident could each go over 1k yards next year, though given our passing attack and the third guy being a true freshmen, I'm betting we "only" have the 2 go over 1k.

Adv: Probably a slight advantage to Bama, but not by much.

Bama is going to have some good players they can replace Howard with, but Howard has been anomalously talented by their standards, they didn't use him well enough, and they don't actually have a great history of TE's under Saban. Only have had 2 TE's drafted, in the 2012 and '13 drafts, and both went in the 7th round. That said, I'd expect a similar amount of TE success/threat as we had this past year. Yeah, our TE's were there, they did some blocking, they caught some passes, but they weren't the position group leading our offense by any stretch.

In contrast, I expect our TE group next year to be much better. Cantrell, O'Grady, and Gragg will be at the top of the pack as far as experience on the team (unless Kraus remains) with Cantrell getting extensive playing time last year and O'Grady coming on strong at the end of the year. Combine that with Gunter being too talented for the coaches to keep on the sideline last year now having a full year of college and a year of some actual playing time and I'd already give our group a solid edge. However, I haven't even mentioned the addition of Patton who could come in and become our #1 TE.

Further, like us, this could be one of their best receiver groupings in a long while. Calvin Ridley is positioned to be the next Julio/Amari for the team. They signed the #3/4 receiver in the country and return some physically gifted, but to date mostly inexperienced receivers.

Bad news is, their inexperienced receivers are a lot more experienced than ours. Good news is, I like our group overall more than theirs. They wanted Jordan Jones badly but we kept him. Coming into his second year, I like his odds to produce more than their true freshmen receiver simply due to practicing and having a year in the weight room. Ridley is no question better than Cornelius as an overall talent, but Cornelius isn't some pushover and has the most NFL potential of any of our key players from last season. The big difference, IMO, is the addition of Brandon Martin for us. They have a big guy receiver as well, but he's been there a while and hasn't produced despite not being behind a slough of receivers like our Pettway and Stewart were (not big guys).

Adv: Slight to arkansas.

Losing Cam Robinson will hurt them. However, returning 3+ OL is always a good thing. I don't think OL will be a liability for them at all next season. However, they should be more vulnerable to the pass rush than they have been in recent seasons. I'm still a bit skeptical of the 3-4 and our ability to utilize it well; however, we have as good a chance as any.

Our OL similarly returns a lot of experience, but we only lose 1 starter. However, with the questions at RG, we potentially only return 3 full time starters as well. We also lose our LT, but I don't think that will be as big a problem for us as them. Namely, Skipper wasn't a LT and the coaches clearly didn't want him playing there as evidenced by him not moving their till late in fall. We had more athletic players capable of playing the LT position; however, they lacked the experience of Skipper. Now, those players are more experienced and I'd bet that even if Skipper in all of his 'nother year of experience was still here, would not be our LT. Froholdt and Ragnow rival the talent of any Bama OL player. Our other players are all SEC worthy and this is shaping up to be our best OL under Bielema yet.

Adv: push.

It's telling that they lose a higher percentage of their impact plays than their regular plays. They will inevitably reload with some good players. However, Allen was a great player even by Bama standards and there's no guarantee their reloading will be that good. Further, there will inevitably be growing pains for their DL. What was it, 2 or 3 seasons ago, they had almost zero pass rush after losing a similar amount as they lose this year. This sets up well for us. Namely, I'd guess they will be good at stopping the run and struggle to consistently get a pass rush next season. This sets up well for us as our offensive strength should be run blocking and running which would cancel out there strength while our weakness in pass blocking will be met with their weakness in pass rushing next season.

As far as personnel, I think we will be fine on the DL, with Agim, Guidry, Smith, Dean, Marshall, Jackson, Capps, and Watts. However, there are a lot of scheme questions that remain, so it is very hard to compare front 7 units b/w the two. Will our coaching staff even want the DL to get any pass rush next season, or will that mean that they are no longer occupying blockers and thus are neglecting their assignment? What type of 3-4 will we be running? Really too early to say.

Adv: ? I like our personnel better in both experience and pass rushing potential, but hard to say which position group will be better due to questions about schemes.

That doesn't tell us that they have kids who have played a great deal. It would be possible for them to have players who have played 3 snaps in a lot of games and nothing more. What does tell us that there is a fair amount of actual experience in the players despite not many starts is that 1/3 of the tackles among the LB group return. The good news there is that the players made about a third of the tackles, but were very down on the impact plays. For example, they were half as effective at getting a tfl as they were a tackle and so on. Compare that to the likes of DeJone Harris who similarly was only a backup player and didn't start, but was proportionally more likely to make a big play.

Which brings us to our players. Sadly, this is a similar post to the DL one. We lose Ellis, but return ample experience in Greenlaw, Eugene, Harris, and Ramsey from last year. Further, we have guys like Taylor waiting in the wing as pass rushing specialists as well. Thus again, I think we are a better set up jimmy and joe wise to get pressure on the qb than Bama next season, we still have a lot of x's and o's questions. Bama's seem to be good at defending the pass (interceptions are a rare occurrence, but the pbu's being mostly proportional to tackles suggests the backups were just as good at that as the starters).

Adv: ?

And everybody but Collins (and Dean) return for us. Tolliver and Pulley are great corners. Ramirez shows a lot of promise and Coley is a good SS for us. However, Curtis, Calloway, Curl, and Brown IMO are going to be on a whole other level for us in due time. How quickly they progress for us remains to be seen. However, with the Bama game coming around mid-season, if any of them are ready to play significant playing time as a true freshmen, it should be happening by this game and I expect at least a couple will be seeing significant snaps by then.

Adv Bama, but I think we more than hold our own at the corner position. I think our new safeties (including Micah) will be much more competitive with Bama's talent in the future, but it takes time for players to develop and Bama has been stronger in the safety department than corner.

We'd been spoiled with Kicker with the likes of Hocker. Hedlund's woes were seemingly on par for a Bama starter. Hedlund's been improved this spring, so worst case scenario, I don't think they have any kicking advantage.

As for punting, Scott is a very good punter. However, we've been really spoiled at punter as well going from Breeding, to Irwin-Hill, to Baker, and Blake Johnson in his limited punting duties did extremely well as well. Scott as a senior is an advantage to Johnson's first year starting, but I don't think the gap will be too big.

Adv: push.

2010 was the biggest down year Bama's had in a while.

Honestly, I don't think their losses at TE or WR will have much of an impact on their team this year. They return a solid OL, real good RB's, a running qb, and enough talent at WR to keep their offense from being one-dimensional. If our 3-4 scheme isn't able to stop the run, then we are going to be in trouble. While normally that is going to be an issue, against somebody like OM or Mizzou, I still like our ability to win so long as we can have some success with the pass defense. I think our personnel sets up great next year to be good pass rushers and a good secondary, but I honestly have no clue how we will be stopping the run. First scrimmage didn't go well, but we return a very talented OL and RB's in a consistent scheme while the D is completely new, so it's just really hard to make any judgements yet.

The big questions for them and our biggest reasons to win come on the other sides of the ball. They lost a lot on defense from last year overall, and particularly in regards to a pass rush. Their backups had significant playing time, but also plenty of playing time to show that they did not excel at rushing the passer. Past 2 years Bama has had 50+ sacks led by 2 players no longer there. They had more than 30 sacks in only 3 of the previous 7 years and never more than 35. If history is any indicator, they could very well be down in the 20 cumulative sack range next season while being solid at stopping the run. This bodes extremely well for Austin Allen who despite their pass rush last year, was able to effectively move the ball, passing for 400 yards and getting 30 points on them last year. Their secondary will improve with experience for sure. However, no secondary can cover forever when their DL isn't getting a pass rush. Combine that with our improvements on the OL and at RB should at worst cancel out their run defense and still allow us to have a modest ground game, and we are set up to be able to move the ball and score on them.

Which brings us back to the first part with us stopping their run. If they are able to run the ball on us, they could keep our offense on the sideline for long stretches, which really hurts the passing game. While I think we can still have a modest run game assuming they sell out to stop the run knowing they can't generate a pass rush, we wouldn't be able to lean on it to move the ball.

However, if we do see solid improvement on defense and our scheme allows us to utilize the very good talent that we have on the defensive side of the ball, then this is our best chance, IMO to beat Bama since 2010. We have more talent than many hog fans like to admit for some strange reason. This is borne out by out ability to play competitively all 3 of the past years. In 2014, our defense shut down their offense, but our offense couldn't move the ball. 2015, we were neck and neck for 3 quarters but couldn't sustain the effort. 2016, we moved the ball on them, but couldn't stop them from moving it as well and lost the shootout. Our offense is more prepared to move the ball this year than they were last year and their defense is even less set up to stop it. However, will our defense be able to slow down their offense enough for us to win?

Dude I came in here to say this same thing, nearly word for word. Creepy.
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HamSammich

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #108 on: April 11, 2017, 12:56:29 am »

Lol this thread is full of tl;dr pulitzers
« Last Edit: April 11, 2017, 10:23:01 pm by HamSammich »
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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #109 on: April 11, 2017, 07:49:08 am »

TE was heavily used under Petrino with DJ Williams winning the Mackey award for the nation's top TE and being drafted in the 5th round with his backup, Chris Gragg, being used a fair amount as well until he was top dog being drafted in the 7th round, though having a much better NFL career, in part to being more NFL sized than DJ Williams was. In the Bielema era, we've since had Derby and Henry (6th and 2nd respectively) with Sprinkle in line to be drafted this year.

Reads like Bama's TE's are going to be in a similar spot to where we were last year. Losing the top dog TE and having a collection of TE's with potential but where none have really separated from the pack. You have a Will Gragg type in Hentges, a smaller O'Grady with Forristall, and DJ Williams type in Smith.

TE and QB are probably the two position groups that I wouldn't hesitate to take Arkansas' players over Bama's.

I doubt it, we aren't running your offense and the TE won't be counted on with the same need you put on the position. I can predict an offense with more running back depth that any team in the country and a QB who gained a thousand yards running with a lot more power and balance as a team. WR is an extremely deep position for us and the emphasis will be as much there as anywhere. Perhaps somewhere between short yardage and the redzone, positional football, we will see. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #110 on: April 11, 2017, 08:06:30 am »

I doubt it, we aren't running your offense and the TE won't be counted on with the same need you put on the position. I can predict an offense with more running back depth that any team in the country and a QB who gained a thousand yards running with a lot more power and balance as a team. WR is an extremely deep position for us and the emphasis will be as much there as anywhere. Perhaps somewhere between short yardage and the redzone, positional football, we will see. 

Howard averaged 3 catches p/gm last season. None of your other TE's, no matter how much potential they may have, came anywhere close to that and Howard's utilization is exactly how we tended to utilize our TE's. So now you are saying that how you utilize your TE's is going to be different from LY? Going to use them more as blockers and only occasionally as receivers?

You do have all of your RB's returning and you have some good ones, no doubt.

Jalen Hurts actually had 954 yards rushing LY but did a good job passing as well. But you better be praying that he doesn't go down since you lost 3 QB's to transfer in about the last year.

Bascially the only accomplished WR that you have returning is Ridley, and he is a good one. The other 7 returnees that saw any game time at all share 34 receptions for 326 yards. By the way, did former 5 star WR Robert Foster ever decide whether he was going to transfer, or is that going to be decided after spring ball?
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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #111 on: April 11, 2017, 09:57:09 am »

Howard averaged 3 catches p/gm last season. None of your other TE's, no matter how much potential they may have, came anywhere close to that and Howard's utilization is exactly how we tended to utilize our TE's. So now you are saying that how you utilize your TE's is going to be different from LY? Going to use them more as blockers and only occasionally as receivers?

You do have all of your RB's returning and you have some good ones, no doubt.

Jalen Hurts actually had 954 yards rushing LY but did a good job passing as well. But you better be praying that he doesn't go down since you lost 3 QB's to transfer in about the last year.

Bascially the only accomplished WR that you have returning is Ridley, and he is a good one. The other 7 returnees that saw any game time at all share 34 receptions for 326 yards. By the way, did former 5 star WR Robert Foster ever decide whether he was going to transfer, or is that going to be decided after spring ball?

No one knows what the next team looks like until the next year, not even the coaches. So for a fact what can I say, nothing, so we speculate about potential and then reality will show up at the first game of the year.

As far as potential is concerned, 5* Robert Foster was not a favorite of Kiffin for whatever reason. The talent is there and Saban said he's having a great spring. 5* WR Jerry Jeudy is the real deal and folks in the know who are at these practices are saying he's the real deal. Cameron Sims is also stepping up. Those 3 with Calvin Ridley you shall see a lot of this season.

Reviewing stats from the previous year is often a waste of time, especially with us. It doesn't reflect the talent coming next. 5* Ben Davis was the #1 LB in the nation last season and he redshirted. I can say this with certainty, this will be the most talent from 1 to 85 at Alabama since coach Saban has been here. It will also be the most dominant offensive team in the Saban era. The defense will be faster than last season.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #112 on: April 11, 2017, 10:31:19 am »

Dude I came in here to say this same thing, nearly word for word. Creepy.

;)
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Poker_hog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #113 on: April 11, 2017, 10:33:27 am »

Reviewing stats from the previous year is often a waste of time, especially with us. It doesn't reflect the talent coming next. 5* Ben Davis was the #1 LB in the nation last season and he redshirted. I can say this with certainty, this will be the most talent from 1 to 85 at Alabama since coach Saban has been here. It will also be the most dominant offensive team in the Saban era. The defense will be faster than last season.

Exactly.  I can buy that we may be equal or slightly better than bama on offense.  I think it's quite delusional to think our defense will be anywhere close to as good bama. 
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #114 on: April 11, 2017, 10:34:06 am »

Exactly.  I can buy that we may be equal or slightly better than bama on offense.  I think it's quite delusional to think our defense will be anywhere close to as good bama.

Has anybody claimed that?
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #115 on: April 11, 2017, 10:39:17 am »

Exactly.  I can buy that we may be equal or slightly better than bama on offense.  I think it's quite delusional to think our defense will be anywhere close to as good bama. 

No one said were were going to be and what is more, it doesn't have to be, it just has to limit the big plays allowed.
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Poker_hog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #116 on: April 11, 2017, 10:43:20 am »

Has anybody claimed that?

You said basically our front sevens are equal and/or you not sure who is better.  And while you give the advantage to bama in the secondary you imply we are close to their level.  It's wishful thinking. 
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Poker_hog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #117 on: April 11, 2017, 10:51:08 am »

No one said were were going to be and what is more, it doesn't have to be, it just has to limit the big plays allowed.

I agree we don't have to be on bama's defensive level this year.  If we can just have an average sec defense we will have a big year.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #118 on: April 11, 2017, 10:54:21 am »

You said basically our front sevens are equal and/or you not sure who is better.  And while you give the advantage to bama in the secondary you imply we are close to their level.  It's wishful thinking.

I said nothing remotely of the sort. I said I think we will be better suited for a pass rush with our front 7 than Bama next season. That is only a small part of what the front 7 does. There is still tackles for loss, limiting big plays, stopping the run, pass coverage, and probably some other things I'm forgetting too. It would be akin to me saying our receivers are better equipped to block than WSU's and you hearing that I'm basically saying our passing attack is going to be more prolific than Mike Leach's in the Pac 12.

Also, it is not wishful thinking that we would get more sacks on defense than Bama as we have done than many times over the past 10 years. We did so in 2013, 2012 (per game), were just 1 sack behind in 2011, we had 10 more sacks than they did in 2010, led in 2009 (per game), and we led them in 2008 (tied total, but had a higher per game).
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Poker_hog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #119 on: April 11, 2017, 11:14:37 am »

I said nothing remotely of the sort. I said I think we will be better suited for a pass rush with our front 7 than Bama next season. That is only a small part of what the front 7 does. There is still tackles for loss, limiting big plays, stopping the run, pass coverage, and probably some other things I'm forgetting too. It would be akin to me saying our receivers are better equipped to block than WSU's and you hearing that I'm basically saying our passing attack is going to be more prolific than Mike Leach's in the Pac 12.

Also, it is not wishful thinking that we would get more sacks on defense than Bama as we have done than many times over the past 10 years. We did so in 2013, 2012 (per game), were just 1 sack behind in 2011, we had 10 more sacks than they did in 2010, led in 2009 (per game), and we led them in 2008 (tied total, but had a higher per game).

With regards to positional match up for the DL you posted:

Adv: ? I like our personnel better in both experience and pass rushing potential, but hard to say which position group will be better due to questions about schemes.

With regard to LB:

Adv: ?


I don't agree with you on any of that.  We might have a good DL.  Most of our talent there is young.  LB is a huge question mark.  I'd be happy if we can just be average there.  Like you, I like or cb play but safety play has been atrocious.  I'd rate it like this:

DL:  slight edge to bama
Lb: huge edge to bama
Secondary:  huge edge to bama.
Secondary:

Adv Bama, but I think we more than hold our own at the corner position. I think our new safeties (including Micah) will be much more competitive with Bama's talent in the future, but it takes time for players to develop and Bama has been stronger in the safety department than corner.


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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #120 on: April 11, 2017, 11:22:50 am »

With regards to positional match up for the DL you posted:

Adv: ? I like our personnel better in both experience and pass rushing potential, but hard to say which position group will be better due to questions about schemes.

With regard to LB:

Adv: ?


I don't agree with you on any of that.  We might have a good DL.  Most of our talent there is young.  LB is a huge question mark.  I'd be happy if we can just be average there.  Like you, I like or cb play but safety play has been atrocious.  I'd rate it like this:

DL:  slight edge to bama
Lb: huge edge to bama
Secondary:  huge edge to bama.
Secondary:

Adv Bama, but I think we more than hold our own at the corner position. I think our new safeties (including Micah) will be much more competitive with Bama's talent in the future, but it takes time for players to develop and Bama has been stronger in the safety department than corner.

You don't agree our DL is more experienced than theirs? That's like not agreeing that water is wet. As for pass rushing potential, I've already posted the numerous years we've had more sacks than them. The past two years, Bama has been at 50+ sacks, largely due to 2 players that will both be gone as well as losing most of their other sack production. They have not historically been dominant at getting sacks. There is no precedent to assume that they will be good at getting pressure on the qb next year at all.
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #121 on: April 11, 2017, 11:33:35 am »


Also, it is not wishful thinking that we would get more sacks on defense than Bama as we have done than many times over the past 10 years. We did so in 2013, 2012 (per game), were just 1 sack behind in 2011, we had 10 more sacks than they did in 2010, led in 2009 (per game), and we led them in 2008 (tied total, but had a higher per game).

We changed our defensive formations and we have downsized and recruited a different type of defensive player for the last 3 or 4 years. Add to that, our DC, Jeremy Pruitt just has a different mindset than Kirby. He is extremely aggressive in his approach and often blitzed a ton more than a much more conservative Smart. Gone is the Boa Constrictor type defensive style that was content with the mush rush, you know, surround the QB. We are now smaller and much faster on the edges. We don't want to affect the QB, we want to eat his spleen.

That's not just because of personnel, that's a different scheme entirely. With Christian Miller, Terrell Hall, Dylan Moses, Ben Davis, expect this bunch to also have their hand in the dirt on the edges and they will be coming hard for the QB.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #122 on: April 11, 2017, 11:47:25 am »

We changed our defensive formations and we have downsized and recruited a different type of defensive player for the last 3 or 4 years. Add to that, our DC, Jeremy Pruitt just has a different mindset than Kirby. He is extremely aggressive in his approach and often blitzed a ton more than a much more conservative Smart. Gone is the Boa Constrictor type defensive style that was content with the mush rush, you know, surround the QB. We are now smaller and much faster on the edges. We don't want to affect the QB, we want to eat his spleen.

That's not just because of personnel, that's a different scheme entirely. With Christian Miller, Terrell Hall, Dylan Moses, Ben Davis, expect this bunch to also have their hand in the dirt on the edges and they will be coming hard for the QB.

Everybody wants to go after the quarterback, but not all are successful in doing so. Pruitt came in this year with a ton of pass rushing talent that was already developed and productive before he got there and now that talent is gone.

I wouldn't be basing your future success and style on such a situation.
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Poker_hog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #123 on: April 11, 2017, 12:09:43 pm »

You don't agree our DL is more experienced than theirs? That's like not agreeing that water is wet. As for pass rushing potential, I've already posted the numerous years we've had more sacks than them. The past two years, Bama has been at 50+ sacks, largely due to 2 players that will both be gone as well as losing most of their other sack production. They have not historically been dominant at getting sacks. There is no precedent to assume that they will be good at getting pressure on the qb next year at all.

Maybe I missed understood you.  Were you comparing the units solely off of experience?  That doesn't seem very useful.  I'd be like saying lsu will have an experience advantage over Kentucky in basketball next year. 

And we may have more sacks but that's only part of the DL's responsibility.  Our run defense was the issue last year. 
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #124 on: April 11, 2017, 12:18:49 pm »

You said basically our front sevens are equal and/or you not sure who is better.  And while you give the advantage to bama in the secondary you imply we are close to their level.  It's wishful thinking.

I think CBB addresses this issue well. He has said (paraphrasing) what makes Bama great is not so much their starters. It is they send onto the field a very stout second and third string with little drop off.

We may be closing the gap on their starters, but we not closing the gap on their rotation. Their rotation is what makes them great into the 4th quarter.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #125 on: April 11, 2017, 12:29:40 pm »

Maybe I missed understood you.  Were you comparing the units solely off of experience?  That doesn't seem very useful.  I'd be like saying lsu will have an experience advantage over Kentucky in basketball next year. 

And we may have more sacks but that's only part of the DL's responsibility.  Our run defense was the issue last year.

No, I was comparing the units off of everything. Experience is part of it. Pass rushing is part of it. Run Stopping is part of it. QB contain is part of it. Executing an effective scheme is part of it.

Our front 7 next year has an experience advantage. I am projecting that they will have a pass rushing advantage which there is a historical precedent for. I am projecting that based on the lack of being able to recruit a consistent pass rush that Bama will focus on being a run stopping front 7 (i.e. think of our 2015 defense, except throw in being a top 10 score stopping defense and having a much more talented secondary and generally a more talented defense overall, but they have often not cared too much about giving up passing yards so long as they don't give up rushing yards, total yards, and points).
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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #126 on: April 11, 2017, 12:35:35 pm »

Everybody wants to go after the quarterback, but not all are successful in doing so. Pruitt came in this year with a ton of pass rushing talent that was already developed and productive before he got there and now that talent is gone.

I wouldn't be basing your future success and style on such a situation.

Then you're an idiot. I said we changed our formations and have downsized the front 7, that's on film, not hearsay. Gonna have to look hard for the next Mt. Cody, dude? The guy anchoring the middle spot of this defense is Da'Ron Payne at about 300 lbs.

Not to worry, we will soon be far beyond your wishful thinking.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #127 on: April 11, 2017, 12:59:47 pm »

Then you're an idiot. I said we changed our formations and have downsized the front 7, that's on film, not hearsay. Gonna have to look hard for the next Mt. Cody, dude? The guy anchoring the middle spot of this defense is Da'Ron Payne at about 300 lbs.

Not to worry, we will soon be far beyond your wishful thinking.

I heard you. However, getting consistent pressure on the qb is more than just scheme and size of the players. Maybe Bama can simply say "Let there be a consistent pass rush" and it will be so. I'll believe it when I see it.

It was on film that we were playing press coverage, blitzing, and playing disruptive on the DL rather than gap control. However, without the players to be able to execute that, our scheme changed. Not trying to compare our defensive talent to yours, but finding good pass rushers isn't super easy and your new schemes have been based on having two of the best in the business.

Something tells me that Saban wasn't out there saying "eww gross, don't give me any Von Millers or Justin Houstons, I am actively avoiding trying to rush the passer." Same way I don't think Saban has been actively avoiding having a qb like a Winston, Luck, or Goff in favor of Cokers and McElroy's. He was able to get one good quarterback with AJ who has unsurprisingly gone on to have the most success in the NFL of recent qb's. However, qb's are like good pass rushers and there's a reason the NFL highly covets them, they are rare.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #128 on: April 11, 2017, 04:53:58 pm »

Then you're an idiot. I said we changed our formations and have downsized the front 7, that's on film, not hearsay. Gonna have to look hard for the next Mt. Cody, dude? The guy anchoring the middle spot of this defense is Da'Ron Payne at about 300 lbs.

Not to worry, we will soon be far beyond your wishful thinking.

Payne is your sole returning starter at NT on the D-Line. In losing Tomlinson, Ball, Allen and Hand you lose 55 career starts and 138 games of experience.

Payne is good, no doubt and he comes back with 18 starts and 30 games of experience. Frazier, backing up Payne, has seen 25 games of experience and 0 starts. Aside from those two, you have 12 games of experience spread among King, Dwight and R. Davis. On top of that (with regard to your D-line) you lose 78% of your Tackles, 83% of your TFL, 82% of your Sacks and all but 1 of your PBU's by the D-line from last year.

Now I'm not trying to Troll you or spark any kind of argument. I am however, just listing facts. I know you have talented recruits and Saban is really good at re-loading as opposed to re-building, but even Alabama is susceptible to a potential downturn in production when less experience comes into play. Will you experience that downturn (even to a slight degree) like most teams do when faced with this issue? Maybe? I don't know, we will see.

And by the way, please refrain from name calling.
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #129 on: April 11, 2017, 04:57:03 pm »

 ::) um, no.
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TNRazorbacker

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #130 on: April 11, 2017, 05:20:07 pm »

I really don''t think we will beat them until Saban leaves. Too much talent too well coached.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #131 on: April 11, 2017, 07:45:52 pm »

Pros: Lack of experienced depth behind Hurts. Hurts plays a style that is liable to get himself ... hurt.
Cons: If Hurts is healthy, based on recent history with the hogs defense, I'd much rather the opposing team have a qb like Mallett than a Nick Marshall. This is a different year, but different coordinators haven't made a difference in the past.

That being said, Hurts was not rated as one of the top 10 returning players in the SEC next season and Austin Allen was. Austin was also just in his first year of starting and thus we should expect a decent jump in production from him from year 1 to year 2.

Adv Arkansas in this position.

We are in a similar boat to them in this regard. From the looks of things, they are going back to their older offense with a run heavy team so I expect them to have more running yards than us. Our defense will need to be able to stop the run vs this team more than the pass IMO.

Just going off of past levels of success, I'm going to guess that Bama's backs are probably more athletic than ours; however, I don't think the gap is terribly high. Further, we have 3 guys that I'd feel confident could each go over 1k yards next year, though given our passing attack and the third guy being a true freshmen, I'm betting we "only" have the 2 go over 1k.

Adv: Probably a slight advantage to Bama, but not by much.

Bama is going to have some good players they can replace Howard with, but Howard has been anomalously talented by their standards, they didn't use him well enough, and they don't actually have a great history of TE's under Saban. Only have had 2 TE's drafted, in the 2012 and '13 drafts, and both went in the 7th round. That said, I'd expect a similar amount of TE success/threat as we had this past year. Yeah, our TE's were there, they did some blocking, they caught some passes, but they weren't the position group leading our offense by any stretch.

In contrast, I expect our TE group next year to be much better. Cantrell, O'Grady, and Gragg will be at the top of the pack as far as experience on the team (unless Kraus remains) with Cantrell getting extensive playing time last year and O'Grady coming on strong at the end of the year. Combine that with Gunter being too talented for the coaches to keep on the sideline last year now having a full year of college and a year of some actual playing time and I'd already give our group a solid edge. However, I haven't even mentioned the addition of Patton who could come in and become our #1 TE.

Further, like us, this could be one of their best receiver groupings in a long while. Calvin Ridley is positioned to be the next Julio/Amari for the team. They signed the #3/4 receiver in the country and return some physically gifted, but to date mostly inexperienced receivers.

Bad news is, their inexperienced receivers are a lot more experienced than ours. Good news is, I like our group overall more than theirs. They wanted Jordan Jones badly but we kept him. Coming into his second year, I like his odds to produce more than their true freshmen receiver simply due to practicing and having a year in the weight room. Ridley is no question better than Cornelius as an overall talent, but Cornelius isn't some pushover and has the most NFL potential of any of our key players from last season. The big difference, IMO, is the addition of Brandon Martin for us. They have a big guy receiver as well, but he's been there a while and hasn't produced despite not being behind a slough of receivers like our Pettway and Stewart were (not big guys).

Adv: Slight to arkansas.

Losing Cam Robinson will hurt them. However, returning 3+ OL is always a good thing. I don't think OL will be a liability for them at all next season. However, they should be more vulnerable to the pass rush than they have been in recent seasons. I'm still a bit skeptical of the 3-4 and our ability to utilize it well; however, we have as good a chance as any.

Our OL similarly returns a lot of experience, but we only lose 1 starter. However, with the questions at RG, we potentially only return 3 full time starters as well. We also lose our LT, but I don't think that will be as big a problem for us as them. Namely, Skipper wasn't a LT and the coaches clearly didn't want him playing there as evidenced by him not moving their till late in fall. We had more athletic players capable of playing the LT position; however, they lacked the experience of Skipper. Now, those players are more experienced and I'd bet that even if Skipper in all of his 'nother year of experience was still here, would not be our LT. Froholdt and Ragnow rival the talent of any Bama OL player. Our other players are all SEC worthy and this is shaping up to be our best OL under Bielema yet.

Adv: push.

It's telling that they lose a higher percentage of their impact plays than their regular plays. They will inevitably reload with some good players. However, Allen was a great player even by Bama standards and there's no guarantee their reloading will be that good. Further, there will inevitably be growing pains for their DL. What was it, 2 or 3 seasons ago, they had almost zero pass rush after losing a similar amount as they lose this year. This sets up well for us. Namely, I'd guess they will be good at stopping the run and struggle to consistently get a pass rush next season. This sets up well for us as our offensive strength should be run blocking and running which would cancel out there strength while our weakness in pass blocking will be met with their weakness in pass rushing next season.

As far as personnel, I think we will be fine on the DL, with Agim, Guidry, Smith, Dean, Marshall, Jackson, Capps, and Watts. However, there are a lot of scheme questions that remain, so it is very hard to compare front 7 units b/w the two. Will our coaching staff even want the DL to get any pass rush next season, or will that mean that they are no longer occupying blockers and thus are neglecting their assignment? What type of 3-4 will we be running? Really too early to say.

Adv: ? I like our personnel better in both experience and pass rushing potential, but hard to say which position group will be better due to questions about schemes.

That doesn't tell us that they have kids who have played a great deal. It would be possible for them to have players who have played 3 snaps in a lot of games and nothing more. What does tell us that there is a fair amount of actual experience in the players despite not many starts is that 1/3 of the tackles among the LB group return. The good news there is that the players made about a third of the tackles, but were very down on the impact plays. For example, they were half as effective at getting a tfl as they were a tackle and so on. Compare that to the likes of DeJone Harris who similarly was only a backup player and didn't start, but was proportionally more likely to make a big play.

Which brings us to our players. Sadly, this is a similar post to the DL one. We lose Ellis, but return ample experience in Greenlaw, Eugene, Harris, and Ramsey from last year. Further, we have guys like Taylor waiting in the wing as pass rushing specialists as well. Thus again, I think we are a better set up jimmy and joe wise to get pressure on the qb than Bama next season, we still have a lot of x's and o's questions. Bama's seem to be good at defending the pass (interceptions are a rare occurrence, but the pbu's being mostly proportional to tackles suggests the backups were just as good at that as the starters).

Adv: ?

And everybody but Collins (and Dean) return for us. Tolliver and Pulley are great corners. Ramirez shows a lot of promise and Coley is a good SS for us. However, Curtis, Calloway, Curl, and Brown IMO are going to be on a whole other level for us in due time. How quickly they progress for us remains to be seen. However, with the Bama game coming around mid-season, if any of them are ready to play significant playing time as a true freshmen, it should be happening by this game and I expect at least a couple will be seeing significant snaps by then.

Adv Bama, but I think we more than hold our own at the corner position. I think our new safeties (including Micah) will be much more competitive with Bama's talent in the future, but it takes time for players to develop and Bama has been stronger in the safety department than corner.

We'd been spoiled with Kicker with the likes of Hocker. Hedlund's woes were seemingly on par for a Bama starter. Hedlund's been improved this spring, so worst case scenario, I don't think they have any kicking advantage.

As for punting, Scott is a very good punter. However, we've been really spoiled at punter as well going from Breeding, to Irwin-Hill, to Baker, and Blake Johnson in his limited punting duties did extremely well as well. Scott as a senior is an advantage to Johnson's first year starting, but I don't think the gap will be too big.

Adv: push.

2010 was the biggest down year Bama's had in a while.

Honestly, I don't think their losses at TE or WR will have much of an impact on their team this year. They return a solid OL, real good RB's, a running qb, and enough talent at WR to keep their offense from being one-dimensional. If our 3-4 scheme isn't able to stop the run, then we are going to be in trouble. While normally that is going to be an issue, against somebody like OM or Mizzou, I still like our ability to win so long as we can have some success with the pass defense. I think our personnel sets up great next year to be good pass rushers and a good secondary, but I honestly have no clue how we will be stopping the run. First scrimmage didn't go well, but we return a very talented OL and RB's in a consistent scheme while the D is completely new, so it's just really hard to make any judgements yet.

The big questions for them and our biggest reasons to win come on the other sides of the ball. They lost a lot on defense from last year overall, and particularly in regards to a pass rush. Their backups had significant playing time, but also plenty of playing time to show that they did not excel at rushing the passer. Past 2 years Bama has had 50+ sacks led by 2 players no longer there. They had more than 30 sacks in only 3 of the previous 7 years and never more than 35. If history is any indicator, they could very well be down in the 20 cumulative sack range next season while being solid at stopping the run. This bodes extremely well for Austin Allen who despite their pass rush last year, was able to effectively move the ball, passing for 400 yards and getting 30 points on them last year. Their secondary will improve with experience for sure. However, no secondary can cover forever when their DL isn't getting a pass rush. Combine that with our improvements on the OL and at RB should at worst cancel out their run defense and still allow us to have a modest ground game, and we are set up to be able to move the ball and score on them.

Which brings us back to the first part with us stopping their run. If they are able to run the ball on us, they could keep our offense on the sideline for long stretches, which really hurts the passing game. While I think we can still have a modest run game assuming they sell out to stop the run knowing they can't generate a pass rush, we wouldn't be able to lean on it to move the ball.

However, if we do see solid improvement on defense and our scheme allows us to utilize the very good talent that we have on the defensive side of the ball, then this is our best chance, IMO to beat Bama since 2010. We have more talent than many hog fans like to admit for some strange reason. This is borne out by out ability to play competitively all 3 of the past years. In 2014, our defense shut down their offense, but our offense couldn't move the ball. 2015, we were neck and neck for 3 quarters but couldn't sustain the effort. 2016, we moved the ball on them, but couldn't stop them from moving it as well and lost the shootout. Our offense is more prepared to move the ball this year than they were last year and their defense is even less set up to stop it. However, will our defense be able to slow down their offense enough for us to win?
Well done. Funniest thing I've read on the internet today.
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GoHogs1091

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #132 on: April 11, 2017, 10:58:28 pm »

We probably won't beat them because we don't have an elite QB like Watson, and we don't have an elite Defensive Coach like Venables.

We could play them tough until the early part of the 3rd Quarter, but you have to have the above, and you also have to have very physical line-of-scrimmage play in order to win against Alabama.
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Torqued pork

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #133 on: April 12, 2017, 05:39:52 am »

I love Hogville. Fresh off a season with a horrid defense, a qb who regressed during the season and back-to-back collapses,  there's  a serious thread asking if this is the year we finally beat Saban and Bama. Good stuff.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #134 on: April 12, 2017, 06:00:42 am »

I love Hogville. Fresh off a season with a horrid defense, a qb who regressed during the season and back-to-back collapses,  there's  a serious thread asking if this is the year we finally beat Saban and Bama. Good stuff.

There is some good discussion on the topic, if you cared to read the thread.
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #135 on: April 12, 2017, 06:02:30 am »

I love Hogville. Fresh off a season with a horrid defense, a qb who regressed during the season and back-to-back collapses,  there's  a serious thread asking if this is the year we finally beat Saban and Bama. Good stuff.

Well, you had the option of just ignoring the thread. No one put a gun to your head to read and post in the thread.

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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #136 on: April 12, 2017, 08:18:43 am »

Payne is your sole returning starter at NT on the D-Line. In losing Tomlinson, Ball, Allen and Hand you lose 55 career starts and 138 games of experience.

Payne is good, no doubt and he comes back with 18 starts and 30 games of experience. Frazier, backing up Payne, has seen 25 games of experience and 0 starts. Aside from those two, you have 12 games of experience spread among King, Dwight and R. Davis. On top of that (with regard to your D-line) you lose 78% of your Tackles, 83% of your TFL, 82% of your Sacks and all but 1 of your PBU's by the D-line from last year.

Now I'm not trying to Troll you or spark any kind of argument. I am however, just listing facts. I know you have talented recruits and Saban is really good at re-loading as opposed to re-building, but even Alabama is susceptible to a potential downturn in production when less experience comes into play. Will you experience that downturn (even to a slight degree) like most teams do when faced with this issue? Maybe? I don't know, we will see.

And by the way, please refrain from name calling.


I mentioned that stats never tell the story with next man up. But the SEC better pay special attention to the caliber of player we are "reloading" this time. The year before on our defense we lost Jarren Reed, Denzel Devall, A'Shawn Robinson, DJ Pettway, Dillion Lee, Reggie Ragland, Cyrus Jones and folks said, they lost too much to the draft. You don't see what's down here and apparently you aren't paying a lot of attention either.

 One evidence of that is that 5* DL De'Shawn Hand is back for Bama for his senior campaign along with Frazier and Da'ron Payne. 6'5" Isaiah Buggs is going to start, he's a 5* JUCO and he's athletic. Terrell Hall OLB at 6'5" 250 played as a freshman and he is quick, Bama players, not me, are calling him a bigger Tim Williams type. Raekwon Davis at 6'7" 305 lbs DT played as a freshman and he is a keeper. Jonathan Allen calls Quinnen Williams DT special and he will be there.

At LB, sophomore Mack Wilson is a 5* #1 OLB out of high school and he's a heavy thumper. Redshirt freshman Ben Davis 5* #1 ILB, ironically they have both shifted LB positions at Bama. Dylan Moses 5* #1 LB this year. All three of these guys are physically as big and fast as any we have had down here. They are fighting to get on the field because our projected starters are 5* senior Ra'Shaan Evans and Dion Hamilton manning the inside spots. OLB Anfernee Jennings played a lot out of our base defense as a redshirt freshman last season and he will start on the outside. Just some of the guys who are trying to get playing time this year on D.

Point being, the caliber of player coming up on defense and offense is the best I've seen overall in the Nick Saban era. This last recruiting cycle is rated higher than the Mark Ingram, Julio Jones class. The playmakers and difference maker types are there with Najee Harris, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Leatherwood, Tua Tagovailo, Davonta Smith, LaBryan Ray, Dylan Moses, etc. It's not my nature to be overwhelmed by hyperbole, especially this time of the year, but this is not the year to pull out the ole ruler and start measuring yourself with this group of players. Just words for now, but after the Florida State game, you will know what I know.
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #137 on: April 16, 2017, 11:02:28 pm »

Tusk,

It's a certainty that this thread comes up every year, and, it's interesting how the OP supposedly asks a question but then he argues with everyone who doesn't answer the way he thinks.

The difference with what Saban has done that people like MHF don't want to admit is that Bama is no longer in a position where losing starters to the NFL makes much difference. Bama has so much depth and experienced depth that there is really not a drop off. The difference is there are very few other teams, nationally, that can seriously compete.

Anything can happen on a given Saturday, but, it won't be because Bama's talent is off.   I'm sure you saw but following the two scrimmages, everyone who has access is raving about the offense, including Hurts and Tua, the WRs, and the two frosh RBs. And MHF's obsession, the TEs, are probably going to see the ball a lot more than Howard because of Daboll.

So I guess I should just say, I hope Bama can keep the game close...
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #138 on: April 16, 2017, 11:47:58 pm »

I don't deny that Alabama has recruited better than us.
All the analysis of Alabama's roster in the world will not answer this question.

When we beat Alabama it will be much more about who the Hogs are on that given day than it will be about who Alabama is.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #139 on: April 17, 2017, 05:43:42 am »

Tusk,

It's a certainty that this thread comes up every year, and, it's interesting how the OP supposedly asks a question but then he argues with everyone who doesn't answer the way he thinks.

The difference with what Saban has done that people like MHF don't want to admit is that Bama is no longer in a position where losing starters to the NFL makes much difference. Bama has so much depth and experienced depth that there is really not a drop off. The difference is there are very few other teams, nationally, that can seriously compete.

Anything can happen on a given Saturday, but, it won't be because Bama's talent is off.   I'm sure you saw but following the two scrimmages, everyone who has access is raving about the offense, including Hurts and Tua, the WRs, and the two frosh RBs. And MHF's obsession, the TEs, are probably going to see the ball a lot more than Howard because of Daboll.

So I guess I should just say, I hope Bama can keep the game close...

And while Alabama has recruited better than we have and Saban has built one heck of a good football program, it is some Alabama fans who think that their team is absolutely invincible and incapable of being negatively affected by little things like losing the most players ever to the NFL Draft. You guys are just like any other fans of any other school when you talk about players that are going to be replacing players that were lost. It's always a case of, "But you just don't understand what a great athlete this kid is...he is an All World player who squats 1200 lbs.". Well, they all have to learn and gain experience. Our kids are just the same. There is a reason that the games are played. We hope that we will play very well.
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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #140 on: April 17, 2017, 10:23:10 am »

Tusk,

It's a certainty that this thread comes up every year, and, it's interesting how the OP supposedly asks a question but then he argues with everyone who doesn't answer the way he thinks.

The difference with what Saban has done that people like MHF don't want to admit is that Bama is no longer in a position where losing starters to the NFL makes much difference. Bama has so much depth and experienced depth that there is really not a drop off. The difference is there are very few other teams, nationally, that can seriously compete.

Anything can happen on a given Saturday, but, it won't be because Bama's talent is off.   I'm sure you saw but following the two scrimmages, everyone who has access is raving about the offense, including Hurts and Tua, the WRs, and the two frosh RBs. And MHF's obsession, the TEs, are probably going to see the ball a lot more than Howard because of Daboll.

So I guess I should just say, I hope Bama can keep the game close...


Thank goodness we play in Tuscaloosa.  ;D If you get too specific, it's considered false bravado, regardless of the results Bama has enjoyed since 2008. Yet it's silly to get into a discussion about Alabama and not mention what caliber of athlete will be taking the field in Atlanta.

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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #141 on: April 17, 2017, 10:51:07 am »

And while Alabama has recruited better than we have and Saban has built one heck of a good football program, it is some Alabama fans who think that their team is absolutely invincible and incapable of being negatively affected by little things like losing the most players ever to the NFL Draft. You guys are just like any other fans of any other school when you talk about players that are going to be replacing players that were lost. It's always a case of, "But you just don't understand what a great athlete this kid is...he is an All World player who squats 1200 lbs.". Well, they all have to learn and gain experience. Our kids are just the same. There is a reason that the games are played. We hope that we will play very well.


Let me put it in these terms. Since Nick Saban's arrival at Alabama in 2007, not one recruit who has stayed their 4-year recruiting cycle has failed to win at least one SEC championship and at least one national championship.

Records of classes recruited by Saban to Alabama:


Class of 2007: 43-11 (.796) 1 national championship, 1 SEC championship
Class of 2008: 48-6 (.889) 2 national championships, 1 SEC championship
Class of 2009: 49-5 (.907) 3 national championships, 2 SEC championships
Class of 2010: 46-7 (.868) 2 national championships, 2 SEC championships
Class of 2011: 48-6 (.889) 2 national championships, 1 SEC championship
Class of 2012: 50-6 (.893) 2 national championships, 3 SEC championships
Class of 2013: 51-6 (.905) 1 national championship,  3 SEC championships *current senior class*
Class of 2014: 40-4 (.925) 1 national championship, 3 SEC championships
Class of 2015: 28-2 (.962) 1 national championship, 2 SEC championships
Class of 2016: 14-1 (.983) 1 national playoff final,    1  SEC championship
 


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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #142 on: April 17, 2017, 11:20:23 am »


Let me put it in these terms. Since Nick Saban's arrival at Alabama in 2007, not one recruit who has stayed their 4-year recruiting cycle has failed to win at least one SEC championship and at least one national championship.

Records of classes recruited by Saban to Alabama:


Class of 2007: 43-11 (.796) 1 national championship, 1 SEC championship
Class of 2008: 48-6 (.889) 2 national championships, 1 SEC championship
Class of 2009: 49-5 (.907) 3 national championships, 2 SEC championships
Class of 2010: 46-7 (.868) 2 national championships, 2 SEC championships
Class of 2011: 48-6 (.889) 2 national championships, 1 SEC championship
Class of 2012: 50-6 (.893) 2 national championships, 3 SEC championships
Class of 2013: 51-6 (.905) 1 national championship,  3 SEC championships *current senior class*
Class of 2014: 40-4 (.925) 1 national championship, 3 SEC championships
Class of 2015: 28-2 (.962) 1 national championship, 2 SEC championships
Class of 2016: 14-1 (.983) 1 national playoff final,    1  SEC championship
 




I guess you think that we all don't know what Alabama has accomplished under Saban? Posting things that we all already know doesn't make your point any stronger. Heck I agreed with you about the value that Saban has built into your program.

Like any fan of a successful program (as I pointed out above), the fans tend to think that their program is somehow insulated or excluded from down turns in production as they graduate classes or have players leave early for the draft. The most you guys have ever had drafted in one class was 9 and that was in the 2013 NFL Draft. In the 2014 season you ended up losing two games, one to Ole Miss and one to Ohio State. That was also the same year that you slipped by us 14-13 and had to go to OT to beat LSU. Point is, it was a heck of a coaching job by Saban, but there were still atypical chinks in the Alabama armor.

Now this year you guys may lose as many as 10-12 to the NFL Draft...a record number. Whether they all actually get drafted or not doesn't matter as much as the fact that they are gone. I don't care which team it might be, losing that many front line players to the Draft has to have some negative effect to some degree. Now that doesn't guarantee that we are going to play you real close in your own yard, but it does provide a better opportunity than in years past and since this is an Arkansas fan board and not an Alabama fan board, I'm going to remain open minded to the possibility until we play.
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bennyl08

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #143 on: April 17, 2017, 11:23:02 am »

How is it mathematically possible for 2011 to have 1 SEC championship as a class but 2012 to have 3?

2011: No
2012: Yes
2013: No
2014: Yes
2015: Yes

So, going on the 4 years cycles, that would be 2 for 2011...
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #144 on: April 17, 2017, 11:51:40 am »

While I certainly don't expect Arkansas to beat Alabama ... I hope if Hogs do, it is not a one-off ... that is, Hogs, if they are good enough to win in Tuscaloosa, it's certainly reasonable to expect they could go to Atlanta as SEC West champs, win in Atlanta and make the NCAA playoffs ...

I recall the win the Hogs had at LSU ... when LSU eventually won the title ... I mean was a good day, but essentially meaningless game .... Didn't keep LSU from winning a championship and propelled Arkansas to no championships....

The point is not just to beat Alabama but to play at a level where such a victory means something....
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #145 on: April 17, 2017, 11:55:44 am »

I guess you think that we all don't know what Alabama has accomplished under Saban? Posting things that we all already know doesn't make your point any stronger. Heck I agreed with you about the value that Saban has built into your program.

Like any fan of a successful program (as I pointed out above), the fans tend to think that their program is somehow insulated or excluded from down turns in production as they graduate classes or have players leave early for the draft. The most you guys have ever had drafted in one class was 9 and that was in the 2013 NFL Draft. In the 2014 season you ended up losing two games, one to Ole Miss and one to Ohio State. That was also the same year that you slipped by us 14-13 and had to go to OT to beat LSU. Point is, it was a heck of a coaching job by Saban, but there were still atypical chinks in the Alabama armor.

Now this year you guys may lose as many as 10-12 to the NFL Draft...a record number. Whether they all actually get drafted or not doesn't matter as much as the fact that they are gone. I don't care which team it might be, losing that many front line players to the Draft has to have some negative effect to some degree. Now that doesn't guarantee that we are going to play you real close in your own yard, but it does provide a better opportunity than in years past and since this is an Arkansas fan board and not an Alabama fan board, I'm going to remain open minded to the possibility until we play.


So far we having lost 1 player to the NFL draft. Who's speculating? The issue isn't how many we are losing to the draft, it's frankly, how many we have to replace them. The fact that the NFL thinks so high of this class is fine, but if they didn't, it doesn't change the talent coming to replace those positions. These 7 number one classes and our 10-year record says it better than you waiting for the anomaly. If you stare hard enough, you can see the only real reason behind the separation of Alabama and the rest of the SEC. RECRUITING!
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TUSKtimes

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #146 on: April 17, 2017, 12:01:04 pm »

How is it mathematically possible for 2011 to have 1 SEC championship as a class but 2012 to have 3?

2011: No
2012: Yes
2013: No
2014: Yes
2015: Yes

So, going on the 4 years cycles, that would be 2 for 2011...

I didn't mean to short-change the Tide. I did update some numbers pretty quick. Actually, the 2011 class won the 12, and 14 SECC.
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #147 on: April 17, 2017, 12:26:51 pm »


Let me put it in these terms. Since Nick Saban's arrival at Alabama in 2007, not one recruit who has stayed their 4-year recruiting cycle has failed to win at least one SEC championship and at least one national championship.

Records of classes recruited by Saban to Alabama:


Class of 2007: 43-11 (.796) 1 national championship, 1 SEC championship
Class of 2008: 48-6 (.889) 2 national championships, 1 SEC championship
Class of 2009: 49-5 (.907) 3 national championships, 2 SEC championships
Class of 2010: 46-7 (.868) 2 national championships, 2 SEC championships
Class of 2011: 48-6 (.889) 2 national championships, 1 SEC championship
Class of 2012: 50-6 (.893) 2 national championships, 3 SEC championships
Class of 2013: 51-6 (.905) 1 national championship,  3 SEC championships *current senior class*
Class of 2014: 40-4 (.925) 1 national championship, 3 SEC championships
Class of 2015: 28-2 (.962) 1 national championship, 2 SEC championships
Class of 2016: 14-1 (.983) 1 national playoff final,    1  SEC championship
 


So you are saying that none have won 4 SEC championships or 4 national championships. Which means Bama isn't invincible. Which means that some years like 2010, 2013, and 2014, you lose more than one game because you aren't as strong a team as other years.

That 2014 team was by far one the weakest teams you fielded since 2010 and at least in 2010, you could argue that Saban was still building the program as it was only his 4th year there. 2014? Can't really justify that year at all other than by admitting that Bama is the most perfect team of all time every single year.
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #148 on: April 17, 2017, 12:46:19 pm »

So you are saying that none have won 4 SEC championships or 4 national championships. Which means Bama isn't invincible. Which means that some years like 2010, 2013, and 2014, you lose more than one game because you aren't as strong a team as other years.

That 2014 team was by far one the weakest teams you fielded since 2010 and at least in 2010, you could argue that Saban was still building the program as it was only his 4th year there. 2014? Can't really justify that year at all other than by admitting that Bama is the most perfect team of all time every single year.


Actually, the 2010 team was arguably more talented than the 09 NC. Julio and Ingram along with Trent Richardson, Marcell Dareus, Eddie Lacy, Maze, were coming back. They suffered a lot of injuries including Ingram's minor knee surgery. G-Mac couldn't get it done in the air and the team never played up to its potential.

I'm not making a case for being undefeated every year, but Bama hasn't lost more than 1 regular season game since 2010. So what I'm saying is every dog has its day, they seldom have 2 in the same season against the Tide. It's gonna be mighty hard for any SEC west team to get to Atlanta with more than 1 conference loss, even if they beat Bama. Ask the rebels?
 
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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #149 on: April 17, 2017, 12:50:05 pm »

We....the fans of the Razorbacks....have not a clue how this defense will look next year.  We are hanging our hats on style to solve the issues from the last 2 season.  Yet there is no evidence of that being the case...we will just have to set back and see.
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