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Author Topic: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?  (Read 3552 times)

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MuskogeeHogFan

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Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« on: April 09, 2017, 09:45:53 am »

Is this the year that we beat Alabama? I know, hard to say right now and we know that Alabama always seems to be deep enough in talent that when one player leaves it always seem like it is just, next man up. That could be the case again this year but it does look like they are losing an awful lot of experienced talent from their team last year. Lets look at it by position group.

QB
We know Hurts is back and he is pretty special but behind him (after the defection of so many QBs) they have Montana Murphy from Trophy Club, TX who didnt see a snap LY. They did sign two 4-stars in Tua Tagovailoa of Honolulu, HI and Mac Jones of Jacksonville, FL, but they better hope that they can keep Hurts upright.

RB
They are in a good position here with everyone returning that contributed to 2700 yards rushing and another 297 yards receiving.

TE
Gone is O.J. Howards 37 career starts and his 45 receptions for 595 yards LY. They return 3 TEs with any experience at all, sharing 10 starts between them along with 8 receptions for 83 yards and 0 TDs.

WR
Alabama loses Ardarius Stewart and Gehrig Dieter who combined for 40 career starts and just LY for 69 catches for 1078 yards and 12 TDs. Of the 106 catches and 1095 yards that return 72 of those receptions for 769 yards and 7 TDs belong to one player, Calvin Ridley. Like us, they are going to have a lot of new and less experienced players taking the field.

O-Line
Alabama loses a couple of starters and a couple more that were depth players mainly at LT (Cam Robinson) and RG (Alphonse Taylor). Korrie Kirven and Brandon Greene at LT and RT respectively, combined had just 10 starts, but 83 games of experience. Alabama will return 3/5ths of their starters with decent depth behind them.

D-Line
Alabama was hit pretty hard by graduation and the NFL along the D-Line. They lose 75% of their career starts and 54% of their career experience. They also lose 67% of their Tackles, 71% of their TFL, 72% of their Sacks and 86% of the D-Line PBUs. The returning starter that they have coming back is DaRon Payne at NT but D'Shawn Hand is experienced at one DE, though he has never started. The other 7 returning D-Linemen have 12 games of experience between them with So. Raekwon Davis having 7 of those 12. It will be interesting to see how Saban handles this.

LBs
Even though Alabama loses 96.7% of their career starts at LB they only lose 54% of their career games at these positions which tells you that they have a lot of kids coming back who have played a great deal even though they didnt start. Still, they are losing 67% of their Tackles, 84% of their TFL, 78% of their Sacks, 70% of their PBUs and all of the LBs who made INTs last year (7) are now gone. This will probably be a down year for Alabama LBs.

Secondary
Everyone but Eddie Jackson (SS) returns so Alabama will have a good Secondary again.

FGs/XPs/Punting
Adam Griffith is finally gone though he didnt exactly set the world on fire LY converting on only 75% of his FGs (21 of 28).
JK Scott is returning for his Senior year as their Punter.

Is this the down year that everyone always hopes for from Alabama? Possibly. If it isnt this year with all that they lose on defense at TE and WR, when will it be? We need to take advantage of this.
« Last Edit: April 17, 2017, 04:30:19 pm by MuskogeeHogFan »
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hoghiker

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2017, 09:57:56 am »

Too much classical conditioning for me:no.
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MountieDawg

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2017, 10:13:10 am »

Need to beat ATM first
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McKdaddy

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2017, 10:18:41 am »

Doubt it, but there's always a chance.
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McKdaddy

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2017, 10:19:08 am »

Need to beat ATM first

I'm ready for the Hogs to beat them.
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Boss Hog in the Arkansas

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2017, 10:26:50 am »

We have the ability to play with them i offense
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Boss Hog in the Arkansas

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2017, 10:27:44 am »

We have the ability to play with them on offense, but defense is still a liability as of right now
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bphi11ips

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2017, 10:32:43 am »

Can we stop the run?
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2017, 10:37:47 am »

Need to beat ATM first

One outcome isn't dependent upon the other. I want to beat A&M as well, but if I had to pick between the two, I'll take Alabama.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2017, 10:43:28 am »

Can we stop the run?

We are about to find out if the change to the 3-4 improves the way our defense performs. From a big picture standpoint, just give up 1 yard less per play than we did last year and I think we will have plenty of opportunities to improve our record significantly. 
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azhog10

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2017, 10:45:40 am »

I do know it's not the year we have another one of these types of posts.
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Seebs

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2017, 10:50:32 am »

No
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #12 on: April 09, 2017, 10:55:38 am »

I do know it's not the year we have another one of these types of posts.

I'm not sure what that is supposed to mean but I do know that a lot of posters never bother to read the original post and the reasons why the question is being asked. Many read the title or the latest post and just post off of that.

Alabama appears to have some atypical weaknesses this year in terms of plugging in experienced depth in key areas like WR, TE, LB and the D-Line. That really is unusual for a Saban-coached Alabama team. Thus, the reason for the question.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2017, 10:58:39 am »

Along with every other Hog fan I'm more than ready to finally break through against them. However, at this point I also think it's unlikely. >:(
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2017, 11:04:21 am »

Along with every other Hog fan I'm more than ready to finally break through against them. However, at this point I also think it's unlikely. >:(

I understand and to some degree, I think we have been conditioned to wear our blinders and just shake our heads and utter a, "nope".

Now we may not be ready, I know we have a lot of work to do and we have to hope that the 3-4 proves to be better sooner than many of us expect. But sometimes beating those teams that you really want to beat (whether A&M or Alabama) ends up being a function of not only what we have and how we perform, but what our opponents have and how they perform.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2017, 11:22:11 am »

I understand and to some degree, I think we have been conditioned to wear our blinders and just shake our heads and utter a, "nope".

Now we may not be ready, I know we have a lot of work to do and we have to hope that the 3-4 proves to be better sooner than many of us expect. But sometimes beating those teams that you really want to beat (whether A&M or Alabama) ends up being a function of not only what we have and how we perform, but what our opponents have and how they perform.
While I agree, and hope that we can beat both, I think our first task is obviously to complete the deal that has been a real major issue for us the past four or five years. Finish the deal once and for all and beat those clowns from College Station. Man, talk about galling!! >:(
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2017, 11:31:42 am »

While I agree, and hope that we can beat both, I think our first task is obviously to complete the deal that has been a real major issue for us the past four or five years. Finish the deal once and for all and beat those clowns from College Station. Man, talk about galling!! >:(

I guarantee you that if you think that upsets all of us, it really upsets Bielema. And while I still contend that one of those outcomes has nothing to do with the outcome of the other, if we are capable of beating Alabama, I feel certain that we will beat A&M. I know A&M comes first but the point is being good enough, having solved enough problems to be able to beat Alabama, then beating A&M shouldn't be a problem for us.

We talked about A&M and beating them in another thread on here. This one is about debating the strengths and weaknesses of Alabama and whether or not posters feel that it might give us a shot at beating them this season.
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rtr

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #17 on: April 09, 2017, 11:41:59 am »

Beat the Aggies and Bama becomes even more beatable.  One game at a time.  Arkansas fans are not used to being beaten by A&M every year, I think you may underestimate how important this game is to the fan base. It sticks in their crawl.
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HamSammich

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #18 on: April 09, 2017, 11:55:12 am »

We beat Bama and win exactly 7 games. Been calling this for months.
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alohawg

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #19 on: April 09, 2017, 12:02:20 pm »

I'm sure whatever weakness they have will be worked out just in time for Arkansas, as usual.
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DoubleReedHawgCaller

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #20 on: April 09, 2017, 12:09:40 pm »

No. Going to be too many growing pains with the  3-4 scheme in the first year.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 12:21:25 pm by DoubleReedHawgCaller »
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FineAsSwine

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #21 on: April 09, 2017, 12:19:19 pm »

If we continue to play them every year, it will happen someday. Kinda like the cicadia cycle, once every thirteen to seventeen years.
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Hawghiggs

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #22 on: April 09, 2017, 12:25:05 pm »

 I have zero faith in Bret Bielema. So I don't expect to beat Florida A&M let alone Alabama.
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jgphillips3

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #23 on: April 09, 2017, 12:42:46 pm »

Oddly enough, because of the way implementing a defense can go, we could lose to A&M and beat Bama.  It could be just that weird kind of year.  I put our chances as better than last year but no better than average.  I think we may be good enough to beat them once if we played them 3 times this year so I'll give us a 1 in 3 chance.  Normally, I would feel they beat us 4 out of 5 so I actually do feel better this year, especially with the game being in the middle of the season giving the defense time to gel.
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Dwillhog66

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #24 on: April 09, 2017, 12:59:42 pm »

If your a fan of the Razorbacks you have to believe there is always a chance. A fan cannot concede a loss by definition alone, that's a fact!
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #25 on: April 09, 2017, 01:10:29 pm »

I have zero faith in Bret Bielema. So I don't expect to beat Florida A&M let alone Alabama.
Tell you what. Since you have zero faith in CBB you can put your money where your large mouth is. I will make you a SERIOUS bet with you on the Florida A and M game. How about a cool $1,000, "cash on the barrel head"?
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LZH

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #26 on: April 09, 2017, 01:12:56 pm »

Sure.  Women's Track and Field is always up for grabs.
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McKdaddy

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #27 on: April 09, 2017, 01:13:12 pm »

While I agree, and hope that we can beat both, I think our first task is obviously to complete the deal that has been a real major issue for us the past four or five years. Finish the deal once and for all and beat those clowns from College Station. Man, talk about galling!! >:(


Yes, the Ag in-laws have begun to express sincere sympathy to me for our losses to them.
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247Hog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #28 on: April 09, 2017, 01:16:40 pm »

One outcome isn't dependent upon the other. I want to beat A&M as well, but if I had to pick between the two, I'll take Alabama.

IMO it benefits us more to beat A&M. Bama is a power we will not out match for recruits. A&M has not been that good and we have a more realistic change to go head to head vs. for recruits. Being told to players that they own us hurts especially in Texas.
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Hawghiggs

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #29 on: April 09, 2017, 01:20:51 pm »

Tell you what. Since you have zero faith in CBB you can put your money where your large mouth is. I will make you a SERIOUS bet with you on the Florida A and M game. How about a cool $1,000, "cash on the barrel head"?

No.
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rtr

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #30 on: April 09, 2017, 01:23:42 pm »

There is always a chance, Bama's reign will end someday. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #31 on: April 09, 2017, 01:24:38 pm »

Sure.  Women's Track and Field is always up for grabs.

Oh yeah, I know how it goes for you guys that are always seated on the emotional roller coaster...let us be 5-0 and having played full games (instead of just halves of games) going into Tuscaloosa and everyone will be singing a different tune. ;)

I hope we all get to experience that ride.
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GoHogzzGo

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #32 on: April 09, 2017, 01:46:30 pm »

Great breakdown. Their depth to replace defense and massive coaching advantage makes me say no chance. But hey gotta be greater then zero.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #33 on: April 09, 2017, 01:50:38 pm »

No.
Ahh.....how come I'm totally NOT surprised in the least? You just proved the adage that "talk is cheap".
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HiggiePiggy

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #34 on: April 09, 2017, 01:51:27 pm »

One outcome isn't dependent upon the other. I want to beat A&M as well, but if I had to pick between the two, I'll take Alabama.

I would take Texas A&M. Since they have joined they have been pretty average in the SEC and they still manage to beat us every year.  Alabama is and will be until Saban retires the top team in the sec almost every year.  Texas A&M was beat until the second half of our games if not the 4th quarter in a couple of games.  If our team can figure out the second half in games we will be very good.  We have yet to do that in a lot of our games no matter who the competition is. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #35 on: April 09, 2017, 02:13:04 pm »

Great breakdown. Their depth to replace defense and massive coaching advantage makes me say no chance. But hey gotta be greater then zero.

Thanks for taking the time to read the OP that supplies the facts behind the thread. I really do appreciate it. Most just post off the cuff without examining their potential weaknesses.
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ICEman

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #36 on: April 09, 2017, 02:33:30 pm »

The short answer is no.
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12247

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #37 on: April 09, 2017, 02:34:02 pm »

Muskogee, I just read every post to here.  Bama has overall better talent, better overall coaching, the winners mental mindset and a refuse to be denied attitude.  We've caught BAMA 2 years ago playing their worst game of the season against us at our house while we were moving along decent and they still beat us.  They have good players to replace any losses they had LY.  Usually 2 or more good players per position lost.  Saban is working overtime understanding every nuance of his team and his laying the framework for another Championship type season.  The only opportunity for us to beat Bama this coming season is for them to take us lightly and usually BAMA doesn't take teams lightly.  A&M on the other is just a huge mental block by us from us owning them.  If we can get over the we cannot beat this team mental problem, they belong to us.  The largest weakness of our team is our mental approach when we face any duress.  We fold like a 10 high hand facing 4 of a kind.
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Mike_e

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #38 on: April 09, 2017, 02:37:23 pm »

Will we?  Maybe not.

Can we?  Maybe so.

Every year is a different team, just ask ole Nick it's what he preaches.  And since defense is easier than offense to install we might just scrape by on the timing.

Since you can only put 11 on the field at a time we don't have to worry about their humongous recruiting advantage.  We just have to worry about having enough quality backups to stay in the game while our starters get a blow.

If it were our 85 against their 85 all at once then No. Way. In. Habanero would we win.

So, I'm sayin we have a chance.
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #39 on: April 09, 2017, 02:42:20 pm »

Is Nick Saban still the head coach?
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #40 on: April 09, 2017, 02:50:17 pm »

Muskogee, I just read every post to here.  Bama has overall better talent, better overall coaching, the winners mental mindset and a refuse to be denied attitude.  We've caught BAMA 2 years ago playing their worst game of the season against us at our house while we were moving along decent and they still beat us.  They have good players to replace any losses they had LY.  Usually 2 or more good players per position lost.  Saban is working overtime understanding every nuance of his team and his laying the framework for another Championship type season.  The only opportunity for us to beat Bama this coming season is for them to take us lightly and usually BAMA doesn't take teams lightly.  A&M on the other is just a huge mental block by us from us owning them.  If we can get over the we cannot beat this team mental problem, they belong to us.  The largest weakness of our team is our mental approach when we face any duress.  We fold like a 10 high hand facing 4 of a kind.

I don't deny that Alabama has recruited better than us. Thinking anything else would be kind of a "duh" moment. But that has been happening for years. Alabama isn't unbeatable. Things happen that make them more vulnerable than they usually tend to be. For example, there isn't any way that Clemson should have beaten them in the NCG in January...but they did with a change in offensive coordinators. Kiffin (eventually) seems to do someone damage wherever he goes.

That said, they aren't unbeatable despite their talent level. After looking at what they have coming back and what they lost, this may be the weakest that I have seen them in some years in terms of returning experience at TE/WR, along the D-Line and perhaps to a lesser degree, at LB as well. Plus, they lose their kicker. Add in the loss of any QB depth (they better protect Jalen Hurts) because of defections/transfers and Alabama, while still Alabama, looks like they might be more vulnerable than in any recent year that I can recall.

I agree that the Hogs have demonstrated a problem with confidence but I think that they overcome that this season. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see us at 5-0 going into Tuscaloosa.
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Sed76

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #41 on: April 09, 2017, 02:55:18 pm »

It's possible sure. Just have to play pretty much perfect and catch a few breaks along the way. Had it not been for a fumble going into the endzone and a blocked extra point would have had them back in 2014. Just can't do stupid stuff.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #42 on: April 09, 2017, 03:09:21 pm »

Is Nick Saban still the head coach?

No. ;)
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rtr

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #43 on: April 09, 2017, 03:32:06 pm »

Hasn't Bama outrecruited everyone?  That is just built into the equation. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #44 on: April 09, 2017, 03:37:08 pm »

It's possible sure. Just have to play pretty much perfect and catch a few breaks along the way. Had it not been for a fumble going into the endzone and a blocked extra point would have had them back in 2014. Just can't do stupid stuff.

And that is the thing...when you are playing against superior and particularly deeper talent overall you just can't make mistakes and offer up any long hanging fruit for them. You have to play as error free as possible and take advantage of every opportunity that they provide you.

There isn't any doubt that Alabama is more talented overall than we are as it relates to recruiting rankings, same goes for LSU, but since 2012 we have produced the third most NFL Draftees of any program in the West (behind Alabama and LSU) while usually having a lesser recruiting rank than most. Player development at Arkansas is better than at most SEC programs when you compare the NFL Draftees against the schools recruiting rank.
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FineAsSwine

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #45 on: April 09, 2017, 03:39:34 pm »

Is Nick Saban still the head coach?

Unfortunately, yes. Don't we play at their place next year?
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #46 on: April 09, 2017, 03:52:01 pm »

Unfortunately, yes. Don't we play at their place next year?

Yes, 10/8/17
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Poker_hog

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #47 on: April 09, 2017, 03:59:48 pm »

Less than a 5% chance.  If it was a home game I'd say 20%.
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King Kong

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #48 on: April 09, 2017, 04:17:41 pm »

No, Saban is still the coach
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Is this the year that we beat Alabama?
« Reply #49 on: April 09, 2017, 04:20:05 pm »

Lot's of thought and analysis and reading going into some of these posts. Let's see...Alabama? Nope.
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