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Author Topic: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?  (Read 1645 times)

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MuskogeeHogFan

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Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« on: April 08, 2017, 08:29:03 am »

Since 2002 Arkansas has had 6 different Defensive Coordinators and haven't been consistently good (not great, just good) since about 2007.

From 2002-2004 Dave Wommack was the DC for the Hogs. In terms of total yardage allowed, here is what he produced.
2002-348.1
2003-344.0
2004-397.2
HDN fired him after a 43-14 loss to LSU to end the season 5-6. Wommack's defense averaged 363.1 yards per game over his 3 years.

From 2005-2007 Reggie Herring was at the helm of the Defense. Here are his total defense numbers.
2005-365.6
2006-299.6
2007-341.9
Herring, who was also the Interim HC in our bowl game that last year (and mailed-in that coaching job), left with the departure of HDN. His 3 year average was 335.7 YPG.

With the arrival of a new HC came a new DC. Willy Robinson who was our DC from 2008-2011. Here are his total defense numbers.
2008-362.9
2009-347.9
2010-401.2
2011-375.2
Willy was alleged to not be much of a recruiter or a teacher of the game of football at the time. His 4 year average was 371.8 YPG.

Right now I would be happy to have seen the Hogs have any of those three DC's averages regardless of anything else that might be said about those coaches.

In 2012 we were graced with the JLS "era" at Arkansas and again, a new DC. Paul Haynes was the DC for one year.
2012-409.1
One and done with the departure of JLS.

In 2013 with the hiring of Bielema we had Chris Ash as our DC. Another one and done.
2013-413.4

In 2014 Ash's departure for Co-DC at Ohio State brought us Robb Smith. Here are his 3 year total defense numbers.
2014-323.4
2015-391.6
2016-426.6
His 3 year average at Arkansas was 380.5 YPG.

Now comes Paul Rhoads and a new defensive scheme in the 3-4. Recruiting seems to have improved and Rhoads seems like a very capable and obviously qualified Coach who his players love. We are being told that the difference is like night and day and that the defense would run through a wall for Rhoads. That is great and we will certainly need that attitude in 2017.

But the bottom line is that Arkansas needs to get back to playing sound defense and not for just a year or two. Even Willy is looking pretty good to me right now. I hope Paul Rhoads changes my mind.
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2017, 08:41:50 am »

Since 2002 Arkansas has had 6 different Defensive Coordinators and haven't been consistently good (not great, just good) since about 2007.

From 2002-2004 Dave Wommack was the DC for the Hogs. In terms of total yardage allowed, here is what he produced.
2002-348.1
2003-344.0
2004-397.2
HDN fired him after a 43-14 loss to LSU to end the season 5-6. Wommack's defense averaged 363.1 yards per game over his 3 years.

From 2005-2007 Reggie Herring was at the helm of the Defense. Here are his total defense numbers.
2005-365.6
2006-299.6
2007-341.9
Herring, who was also the Interim HC in our bowl game that last year (and mailed-in that coaching job), left with the departure of HDN. His 3 year average was 335.7 YPG.

With the arrival of a new HC came a new DC. Willy Robinson who was our DC from 2008-2011. Here are his total defense numbers.
2008-362.9
2009-347.9
2010-401.2
2011-375.2
Willy was alleged to not be much of a recruiter or a teacher of the game of football at the time. His 4 year average was 371.8 YPG.

Right now I would be happy to have seen the Hogs have any of those three DC's averages regardless of anything else that might be said about those coaches.

In 2012 we were graced with the JLS "era" at Arkansas and again, a new DC. Paul Haynes was the DC for one year.
2012-409.1
One and done with the departure of JLS.

In 2013 with the hiring of Bielema we had Chris Ash as our DC. Another one and done.
2013-413.4

In 2014 Ash's departure for Co-DC at Ohio State brought us Robb Smith. Here are his 3 year total defense numbers.
2014-323.4
2015-391.6
2016-426.6
His 3 year average at Arkansas was 380.5 YPG.

Now comes Paul Rhoads and a new defensive scheme in the 3-4. Recruiting seems to have improved and Rhoads seems like a very capable and obviously qualified Coach who his players love. We are being told that the difference is like night and day and that the defense would run through a wall for Rhoads. That is great and we will certainly need that attitude in 2017.

But the bottom line is that Arkansas needs to get back to playing sound defense and not for just a year or two. Even Willy is looking pretty good to me right now. I hope Paul Rhoads changes my mind.

Thanks for the hardwork with the stats. I wonder how our averages compared with the rest of the SEC?

With our offense I feel we only need a middle of the pack defense to add another game or two in the win column.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2017, 08:54:31 am »

Thanks for the hardwork with the stats. I wonder how our averages compared with the rest of the SEC?

With our offense I feel we only need a middle of the pack defense to add another game or two in the win column.

SEC Total Defense averages from 2002-2016 (excluding Arkansas' average but including Missouri and A&M in the years prior to joining the SEC):

2002-338.8
2003-358.3
2004-335.4

2005-340.2
2006-318.0
2007-359.3

2008-324.6
2009-335.2
2010-352.6
2011-328.1

2012-359.9

2013-377.0

2014-374.5
2015-356.9
2016-392.6
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2017, 09:51:54 am »

SEC Total Defense averages from 2002-2016 (excluding Arkansas' average but including Missouri and A&M in the years prior to joining the SEC):

2002-338.8
2003-358.3
2004-335.4

2005-340.2
2006-318.0
2007-359.3

2008-324.6
2009-335.2
2010-352.6
2011-328.1

2012-359.9

2013-377.0

2014-374.5
2015-356.9
2016-392.6

So if I am looking at this correctly we need to lose about 75-100 yards per game from last year's horrendous 426 yards.. Which would equate to removing one brain fart or a couple missed tackle. If this were our second year in the 3-4 I would say this is very doable.

Being it is the first year of the install if we could get to 375 would put us slightly above average for the SEC. I'm cautiously optimistic.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2017, 10:04:42 am »

So if I am looking at this correctly we need to lose about 75-100 yards per game from last year's horrendous 426 yards.. Which would equate to removing one brain fart or a couple missed tackle. If this were our second year in the 3-4 I would say this is very doable.

Being it is the first year of the install if we could get to 375 would put us slightly above average for the SEC. I'm cautiously optimistic.

A 10% reduction in yards allowed would bring us in at about 384 YPG.
15% = 363 YPG 
20% = 341 YPG

I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect a reduction of 10% to 15% in yards per game. And when they say that football is "a game of inches", here is why.

Given that we averaged 63 defensive plays p/game last season, if you use that same average number of plays and give up just a little over 2 feet less per play, it gets you to 384 YPG. 1 yard less per play on average gets you to 363 YPG allowed. And giving up just 4 feet less per play gets you down to 341 yards allowed per game.

Not being able to accomplish that could be something as small as being slightly misaligned, just a step out of position, utilizing a bad technique, not wrapping up a tackle. I mean there are so many small things that can contribute to not being able to reach better numbers that are literally, just inches away.

« Last Edit: April 08, 2017, 10:38:01 am by MuskogeeHogFan »
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2017, 11:17:27 am »

A 10% reduction in yards allowed would bring us in at about 384 YPG.
15% = 363 YPG 
20% = 341 YPG

I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect a reduction of 10% to 15% in yards per game. And when they say that football is "a game of inches", here is why.

Given that we averaged 63 defensive plays p/game last season, if you use that same average number of plays and give up just a little over 2 feet less per play, it gets you to 384 YPG. 1 yard less per play on average gets you to 363 YPG allowed. And giving up just 4 feet less per play gets you down to 341 yards allowed per game.

Not being able to accomplish that could be something as small as being slightly misaligned, just a step out of position, utilizing a bad technique, not wrapping up a tackle. I mean there are so many small things that can contribute to not being able to reach better numbers that are literally, just inches away.

Take out the Auburn game and the defense didn't play that bad last year. Out of those 63 plays they would collapse on about 10-12 (just a guess) chunk plays which ran up the score. Or allowed a team back into the game. If they can pressure the QB and hold the edge then I think your 10% reduction is doable. I think.  ;D

Another benefit of improving the defense to at least middle of the pack keeps pressure off the offense from feeling they have to score every drive.
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Farmer Hogget

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2017, 11:52:50 am »

Raw numbers like this don't tell you about the level of competition in those games.  The schedule in 2007 is not comparable to the schedule the last few years.  Rob's first year, the defense was highly rated.  This data tells us very little, actually.
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2017, 12:18:18 pm »

Raw numbers like this don't tell you about the level of competition in those games.  The schedule in 2007 is not comparable to the schedule the last few years.  Rob's first year, the defense was highly rated.  This data tells us very little, actually.

What's up Capt. Obvious? Of course there are other factors, but most of us don't have the access to an algorithm that can provide that kind of analysis.

Unless you care to create that sophisticated analysis? Otherwise move along as some of us understand this isn't a complete analysis and enjoy discussing anyway.
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bennyl08

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2017, 01:36:47 pm »

A 10% reduction in yards allowed would bring us in at about 384 YPG.
15% = 363 YPG 
20% = 341 YPG

I don't think it would be unreasonable to expect a reduction of 10% to 15% in yards per game. And when they say that football is "a game of inches", here is why.

Given that we averaged 63 defensive plays p/game last season, if you use that same average number of plays and give up just a little over 2 feet less per play, it gets you to 384 YPG. 1 yard less per play on average gets you to 363 YPG allowed. And giving up just 4 feet less per play gets you down to 341 yards allowed per game.

Not being able to accomplish that could be something as small as being slightly misaligned, just a step out of position, utilizing a bad technique, not wrapping up a tackle. I mean there are so many small things that can contribute to not being able to reach better numbers that are literally, just inches away.

Some good work with the numbers but my god, it's like nails on a chalkboard to me seeing       p/game. It's like saying atm machine or scuba device.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2017, 01:46:04 pm »

Some good work with the numbers but my god, it's like nails on a chalkboard to me seeing       p/game. It's like saying atm machine or scuba device.

Take a Valium, practice taking deep breaths and call me tomorrow.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #10 on: April 08, 2017, 01:52:53 pm »

Raw numbers like this don't tell you about the level of competition in those games.  The schedule in 2007 is not comparable to the schedule the last few years.  Rob's first year, the defense was highly rated.  This data tells us very little, actually.

Generally speaking, scoring defense matters more but the purpose of this was just to look at yards allowed which, though not a perfect way to analyze defensive play, nonetheless is typically an indicator of success or failure. It is at least enough so that you know that a team that allows 325-375 yards/game has at least some chance to be successful and help the offense. But you can also usually say that in this conference, if you average allowing over 400 yards each game, you have a significantly lesser chance to be successful in terms of wins and most likely, your DC is going to have to look for another job.
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hog.goblin

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #11 on: April 08, 2017, 02:05:44 pm »

I thought Paul Haynes had two years as DC, one under Bobby and the one under Johnelle?

Good information though.  Very telling watching the yards climb 3 years in a row under Robb Smith.

I didn't think much of Reggie personally, but he was a very underrated DC here.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #12 on: April 08, 2017, 02:13:13 pm »

I thought Paul Haynes had two years as DC, one under Bobby and the one under Johnelle?

Good information though.  Very telling watching the yards climb 3 years in a row under Robb Smith.

I didn't think much of Reggie personally, but he was a very underrated DC here.

You could say the same about Wommack who HDN fired, despite the fact that he had produced defenses in 2002 and 2003 that yielded just 348 and 344 YPG respectively. The 2004 defense was filled with young, inexperienced players which contributed greatly to the increase in yards allowed to 397.
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tophawg19

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2017, 04:12:59 pm »

Some good work with the numbers but my god, it's like nails on a chalkboard to me seeing       p/game. It's like saying atm machine or scuba device.
dude if that bothers you then you need serious help. ATM bothers you ????
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bennyl08

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2017, 06:11:32 pm »

I thought Paul Haynes had two years as DC, one under Bobby and the one under Johnelle?

Good information though.  Very telling watching the yards climb 3 years in a row under Robb Smith.

I didn't think much of Reggie personally, but he was a very underrated DC here.

Not really. He coached the KSU bowl game as our DC un Bobby Petrino, but between that game and the next he coached as a razorback, April Fools day happened. As far as calendar years go, he only coached one year here. Technically was indeed involved in two different seasons though.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2017, 09:35:16 am »

Some good work with the numbers but my god, it's like nails on a chalkboard to me seeing       p/game. It's like saying atm machine or scuba device.

Is this the voice of a generation obsessed with "analytics"? 

Yards allowed per game has always been one of the best ways to judge the effectiveness of a defense.  It will continue to be, along with rushing yards allowed per game and points allowed per game.  You can run algorithms all day, but MHG gave us 15 years of data from seasons which included what were essentially round robin SEC schedules.  The data is the best weathervane available.  It would be interesting to see it on a graph.

Thanks for the info, Muskogee.   
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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2017, 11:28:18 am »

!978-79 the Hogs had a D.
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GuvHog

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #17 on: April 10, 2017, 12:38:08 pm »

Since 2002 Arkansas has had 6 different Defensive Coordinators and haven't been consistently good (not great, just good) since about 2007.

From 2002-2004 Dave Wommack was the DC for the Hogs. In terms of total yardage allowed, here is what he produced.
2002-348.1
2003-344.0
2004-397.2
HDN fired him after a 43-14 loss to LSU to end the season 5-6. Wommack's defense averaged 363.1 yards per game over his 3 years.

From 2005-2007 Reggie Herring was at the helm of the Defense. Here are his total defense numbers.
2005-365.6
2006-299.6
2007-341.9
Herring, who was also the Interim HC in our bowl game that last year (and mailed-in that coaching job), left with the departure of HDN. His 3 year average was 335.7 YPG.

With the arrival of a new HC came a new DC. Willy Robinson who was our DC from 2008-2011. Here are his total defense numbers.
2008-362.9
2009-347.9
2010-401.2
2011-375.2
Willy was alleged to not be much of a recruiter or a teacher of the game of football at the time. His 4 year average was 371.8 YPG.

Right now I would be happy to have seen the Hogs have any of those three DC's averages regardless of anything else that might be said about those coaches.

In 2012 we were graced with the JLS "era" at Arkansas and again, a new DC. Paul Haynes was the DC for one year.
2012-409.1
One and done with the departure of JLS.

In 2013 with the hiring of Bielema we had Chris Ash as our DC. Another one and done.
2013-413.4

In 2014 Ash's departure for Co-DC at Ohio State brought us Robb Smith. Here are his 3 year total defense numbers.
2014-323.4
2015-391.6
2016-426.6
His 3 year average at Arkansas was 380.5 YPG.

Now comes Paul Rhoads and a new defensive scheme in the 3-4. Recruiting seems to have improved and Rhoads seems like a very capable and obviously qualified Coach who his players love. We are being told that the difference is like night and day and that the defense would run through a wall for Rhoads. That is great and we will certainly need that attitude in 2017.

But the bottom line is that Arkansas needs to get back to playing sound defense and not for just a year or two. Even Willy is looking pretty good to me right now. I hope Paul Rhoads changes my mind.

Good points Muskogee. IMHO the main reason the defense declined so in 2015 and 2016 is because the 2013 and 2014 defensive recruiting classes were not very good. That combined with the number of Petrino defensive recruits leaving after the 2014 season really hurt in 2015 and 2016. Defensive recruiting began to improve starting with the 2015 class and I believe we'll see signs of that improved recruiting on the field this season.
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bennyl08

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2017, 12:58:49 pm »

Is this the voice of a generation obsessed with "analytics"? 

Yards allowed per game has always been one of the best ways to judge the effectiveness of a defense.  It will continue to be, along with rushing yards allowed per game and points allowed per game.  You can run algorithms all day, but MHG gave us 15 years of data from seasons which included what were essentially round robin SEC schedules.  The data is the best weathervane available.  It would be interesting to see it on a graph.

Thanks for the info, Muskogee.

What a strange post.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2017, 01:39:35 pm »

Good points Muskogee. IMHO the main reason the defense declined so in 2015 and 2016 is because the 2013 and 2014 defensive recruiting classes were not very good. That combined with the number of Petrino defensive recruits leaving after the 2014 season really hurt in 2015 and 2016. Defensive recruiting began to improve starting with the 2015 class and I believe we'll see signs of that improved recruiting on the field this season.

11 of the 23 in 2013 class were defensive players. We signed the likes of DJ Dean, Carroll Washington, Alex Brignoni, Coley, T. Coleman (all DB's) Tevin Beanum, Ketyrus Marks, Brooks Ellis and Martrell Spaight. Melvinson Hartfield left and so did Myke Tavarres and I believe Brignoni had to quit due to injuries. On top of that (as I recall) Washington and Spaight were short termers and Coleman never really panned out. So almost half that class either didn't pan out or were just here a short time.

The 2014 class was different in that 13 of the 25 were defensive players, 6 DB's, 3 LB's, 2 DT's and 2 DE's. We still have Toliver, Ramirez, Floyd, Hackett and Liddell but we lost Christopher Murphy from that class. As far as LB's go we landed Ramsey, Eugene and Josh Williams who are still with the team. Both DT's in that class are still with us, Bijhon and Armon Watts and one of the DE's remain, Jake Hall. Anthony Brown has moved on. So how bad can that class really be?

And from the 2015 class only Derrick Graham and Willie Sykes have departed.
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bennyl08

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2017, 01:50:34 pm »

TQ Coleman was a JUCO guy as well. Was mentioned as our most athletic safety but broke the team rules to the point that coach didn't allow him to compete at our pro day.

Josh Williams is no longer with the team, at least as far as being an eligible player.

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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #21 on: April 10, 2017, 01:54:51 pm »

TQ Coleman was a JUCO guy as well. Was mentioned as our most athletic safety but broke the team rules to the point that coach didn't allow him to compete at our pro day.

Josh Williams is no longer with the team, at least as far as being an eligible player.



Right you are. Good catch.
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bennyl08

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #22 on: April 10, 2017, 02:03:15 pm »

Right you are. Good catch.

Also Hackett is off the team.
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bennyl08

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #23 on: April 10, 2017, 02:19:16 pm »

2013:
Carrol Washington: JUCO player and had injury issues keep him off the field during his time here. Didn't pan out.
Ellis: 4 year starter
Tavarres: Transferred out
Hartfield: Left the program
Spaight: had one good season, but it was a great season
DJ Dean: Solid contributor but injuries hurt him past two years and even when healthy was passed over by younger players
Beanum: Was a solid contributor/decent starter for us, but had to leave the program early, possibility for a return.
Marks: high risk, high reward project, didn't pan out, transferred
Coley: Been a good starter for us
TQ Coleman: broke team rules, wasn't allowed to participate in the pro day
Roesler: Hasn't contributed much yet, but could be a rotational player this year
Brignoni: Injuries

Of the 11 players, signed, 8 of the players didn't finish, didn't contribute very much, or were passed over by younger players, and Roesler could make that 9 depending on how 2017 goes.

2014: Jackson: Hasn't lived up to his potential yet, but 2017 is shaping up for him to have a Hodge-like senior year resurgence.
Toliver: Been one of our most productive DB's under Bielema, and honestly, one of our most productive defensive players overall.
Murphy: Gone
Floyd: Gone
Watts: Hasn't contributed much yet.
Ramirez: Saw an increased role last year and performed well but made mistakes as well.
Hall: Honestly forgot he was on the team still. Hasn't contributed yet.
Hackett: No longer on the team
Liddell: Been a solid starter
Ramsey: Off the team as part of this class (came back later), has shown potential
Eugene: Gave us a good end half of the season last year
Brown: Gone
Williams: Expired eligibility.

6 of the 13 players are no longer here with only one of those using up the eligibility. Another 2 haven't contributed much to the team yet.

2015: Froholdt: Played as a true freshmen on the DL, but is now a starter on the OL
Bell: moved to TE, hasn't played yet
Ledbetter: Expired eligibility, was a good player for us
Dean: Hasn't contributed yet
Greenlaw: Freshmen all american, been a key player
Dalton: hasn't contributed yet
Graham: gone
Jackson: moved to offense, FB
Pulley: very good player for us
TJ Smith: hasn't contributed yet
Sykes: Gone
Phillips/Keaton: walk-ons, still here

Of the 11 scholarship defensive players we signed, 6 of them are already no longer part of our defense, with 3 of them no longer part of the team, and 3 of them on offense. Of the remaining 5, 2 have been great players for us, and 3 haven't made an impact yet.

2016: Agim: started for us as a true freshmen
Capps: significant PT as a true freshmen
Guidry: projected starter for us next year
Marshall: redshirted, but will be 3rd string NT next year as of this point in spring ball
AJB: Was able to redshirt, should be in 2-deep next year
Harris: key player as a true freshmen, projected starter next year
LaFrance: Rs, but expected to be in 2 deep next year
Edwards: Rs, haven't heard much about him
Taylor: Expected starter next year
Tutt: injured last year, expected to be a contributor next year
Walker: Rs, haven't heard much about yet
Smith: Rs, heard some about him but not much yet

This class has only been here 1 season, of the 12 players, 3 were already playing a good amount their first year, and at least 9 of the 12 are expected to make significant contributions in their 2nd year.
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bennyl08

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #24 on: April 10, 2017, 02:23:55 pm »

TL;DR

2013 had a lot of attrition on the team that hurt us.

2014 was a pretty good class for defense. There was attrition, but not a terrible amount.

2015 was really bad as far as the defense goes. These should be the juniors/RsSo for the upcoming season and we are down to just 5 players from that class left on defense with 2 of them being very good, and 3 of them still having time to make an impact.

2016 was a very good class on defense in contrast to 2015 with 9/12 players on that side expected to be significant contributors in just their 2nd year.

2017 I didn't due since half of them aren't even on campus yet, but on paper, it looks to rival that of 2016.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #25 on: April 10, 2017, 03:23:08 pm »

What a strange post.

Maybe I misunderstood your reference to atm machines and scuba devices, which I thought was strange.  I took it as a suggestion that yards allowed per game is not an indication of the strength of a defense. I thought Muskogee took it the same way and was just defending his OP.

You usually offer thoughtful, educated football related opinions.  I enjoy your posts and can't recall seeing you hyping "advanced analytics".  Some stats are helpful, especially where they show individual player tendencies or situational tendencies.  On the other hand, much of what statistician/techies label "analytics" is just gobbledygook, in my opinion.  Football is not that complicated. That's what I meant. 
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bennyl08

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #26 on: April 10, 2017, 04:26:22 pm »

Maybe I misunderstood your reference to atm machines and scuba devices, which I thought was strange.  I took it as a suggestion that yards allowed per game is not an indication of the strength of a defense. I thought Muskogee took it the same way and was just defending his OP.

You usually offer thoughtful, educated football related opinions.  I enjoy your posts and can't recall seeing you hyping "advanced analytics".  Some stats are helpful, especially where they show individual player tendencies or situational tendencies.  On the other hand, much of what statistician/techies label "analytics" is just gobbledygook, in my opinion.  Football is not that complicated. That's what I meant.

Mine was mostly a playful post about notation. Muskogee has a habit of typing out things like points p/game or yards p/game.

If you read that out loud, it is saying points per per game or yards per per game rather than blank per game. It's combining the notation of ppg and ypg where the single "p" in the middle represents the per with the notations of points/game and yards/game where the "/" denotes per. Thus, blank p/game is saying blank per per game and it equivalent to saying atm machine (where atm stands for automatic teller machine) or a scuba device (where scuba stands for self contained underwater breathing apparatus).
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bphi11ips

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #27 on: April 10, 2017, 08:49:54 pm »

Mine was mostly a playful post about notation. Muskogee has a habit of typing out things like points p/game or yards p/game.

If you read that out loud, it is saying points per per game or yards per per game rather than blank per game. It's combining the notation of ppg and ypg where the single "p" in the middle represents the per with the notations of points/game and yards/game where the "/" denotes per. Thus, blank p/game is saying blank per per game and it equivalent to saying atm machine (where atm stands for automatic teller machine) or a scuba device (where scuba stands for self contained underwater breathing apparatus).

Redundancy occurred to me with "atm machine".  Had you said "scuba apparatus" maybe I would have figured it out.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #28 on: April 11, 2017, 06:04:03 am »

Mine was mostly a playful post about notation. Muskogee has a habit of typing out things like points p/game or yards p/game.

If you read that out loud, it is saying points per per game or yards per per game rather than blank per game. It's combining the notation of ppg and ypg where the single "p" in the middle represents the per with the notations of points/game and yards/game where the "/" denotes per. Thus, blank p/game is saying blank per per game and it equivalent to saying atm machine (where atm stands for automatic teller machine) or a scuba device (where scuba stands for self contained underwater breathing apparatus).

Redundancy occurred to me with "atm machine".  Had you said "scuba apparatus" maybe I would have figured it out.

I try to express things in the most simple way so that everyone understands what I am talking about when I post statistics. We have a lot of good posters on here that come from a wide range of backgrounds. It probably isn't a good idea to post things in an abbreviated manner. It would seem that you have embraced the same theory, Benny. ;)
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #29 on: April 11, 2017, 06:19:17 am »

I try to express things in the most simple way so that everyone understands what I am talking about when I post statistics. We have a lot of good posters on here that come from a wide range of backgrounds. It probably isn't a good idea to post things in an abbreviated manner. It would seem that you have embraced the same theory, Benny. ;)

Ok, I apologize for dragging the IQ level down.  ;)
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #30 on: April 11, 2017, 06:46:08 am »

Ok, I apologize for dragging the IQ level down.  ;)

That wasn't where I was going with that. Not what I meant.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #31 on: April 11, 2017, 07:00:00 am »

I'll point out that it's early, but reports out of spring camp are not looking good for the D. We just don't have the talent on that side of the ball. We switched to a 3-4 because we can't consistently get good DL players, but we also don't get elite LB's. People say it can't be as bad a last year. Well, if you still don't have talent and you are learning on the fly it can be worse.

Maybe the freshman class can help out, but good luck counting on freshman to come in and contribute immediately.  With the gaps in recruiting it could take a couple more years to see if this D can come around. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #32 on: April 11, 2017, 07:34:49 am »

I'll point out that it's early, but reports out of spring camp are not looking good for the D. We just don't have the talent on that side of the ball. We switched to a 3-4 because we can't consistently get good DL players, but we also don't get elite LB's. People say it can't be as bad a last year. Well, if you still don't have talent and you are learning on the fly it can be worse.

Maybe the freshman class can help out, but good luck counting on freshman to come in and contribute immediately.  With the gaps in recruiting it could take a couple more years to see if this D can come around. 

Given that we are just now learning a new defense I think that passing judgement at this time could lead to making inaccurate assumptions about what our defense will look like when the season kicks off. Let's give it time and see what the talent that we do have (and Rhoads) can do with this new scheme.
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ChitownHawg

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #33 on: April 11, 2017, 07:41:49 am »

That wasn't where I was going with that. Not what I meant.

Just some early morning self-deprecating humor.  ;D
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #34 on: April 11, 2017, 07:44:53 am »

Just some early morning self-deprecating humor.  ;D

I know, I just wanted to be clear about that.
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Pork Twain

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #35 on: April 11, 2017, 08:04:14 am »

If people do not know what ppg or ypg game stand for, they need to log off.  Wait, this is Hogville...
« Last Edit: April 11, 2017, 09:39:36 am by Pork Twain »
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bphi11ips

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #36 on: April 11, 2017, 08:09:11 am »

I'll point out that it's early, but reports out of spring camp are not looking good for the D. We just don't have the talent on that side of the ball. We switched to a 3-4 because we can't consistently get good DL players, but we also don't get elite LB's. People say it can't be as bad a last year. Well, if you still don't have talent and you are learning on the fly it can be worse.

Maybe the freshman class can help out, but good luck counting on freshman to come in and contribute immediately.  With the gaps in recruiting it could take a couple more years to see if this D can come around. 

The defense is the reason I'm afraid we could be in for a very long season. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #37 on: April 11, 2017, 08:14:58 am »

The defense is the reason I'm afraid we could be in for a very long season. 

For a multitude of reasons, I think our defense will be improved over last year. Now do I think they are going to allow just 300 ypg? No. But I wouldn't be surprised to see us around 375 ypg.
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bphi11ips

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #38 on: April 11, 2017, 08:56:17 am »

For a multitude of reasons, I think our defense will be improved over last year. Now do I think they are going to allow just 300 ypg? No. But I wouldn't be surprised to see us around 375 ypg.

Of course I hope you're right.  But those reasons can't be based on personnel and experience.  Only one returning player, Dre Greenlaw, can really be counted as an upperclassman proven SEC starter.  And that assumes he returns at full strength after a long rehab.  We lost four senior linemen, all of whom were considered to be the strength of the defense, a four year starter at MLB, another senior situational LB, and our two best defenders in the secondary.  All of this from the worst defense any of us have ever seen Arkansas put on the field.   That totals about 100 years for you and I.

Few here wear rosier colored glasses then I do.  I'd like to think this defense will play with passion, be in position, and tackle in space.  If you think they will do all of these things, then your optimism is justified.  But comparing the two-deep to last year, you have to swallow pretty hard.
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Sho Nuff

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #39 on: April 11, 2017, 09:02:16 am »

Take out the Auburn game and the defense didn't play that bad last year. Out of those 63 plays they would collapse on about 10-12 (just a guess) chunk plays which ran up the score. Or allowed a team back into the game. If they can pressure the QB and hold the edge then I think your 10% reduction is doable. I think.  ;D

Another benefit of improving the defense to at least middle of the pack keeps pressure off the offense from feeling they have to score every drive.
I just checked with Ray Biggers, he confirmed that your estimation was spot on.
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GuvHog

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #40 on: April 11, 2017, 09:03:58 am »

For a multitude of reasons, I think our defense will be improved over last year. Now do I think they are going to allow just 300 ypg? No. But I wouldn't be surprised to see us around 375 ypg.

Agreed. Up front, Agim is as good as Philon was in 2014, Guidry is young but has the talent to be that good on the other side, and the nose guard Bijhon seems to have taken to the 3-4 defense like a duck to water. Also the Hogs have some good LBs and Randy Ramsey will be playing on the outside where he has the possibility of being able to be as good as A&M's DEs were last year.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #41 on: April 11, 2017, 09:28:23 am »

Of course I hope you're right.  But those reasons can't be based on personnel and experience.  Only one returning player, Dre Greenlaw, can really be counted as an upperclassman proven SEC starter.  And that assumes he returns at full strength after a long rehab.  We lost four senior linemen, all of whom were considered to be the strength of the defense, a four year starter at MLB, another senior situational LB, and our two best defenders in the secondary.  All of this from the worst defense any of us have ever seen Arkansas put on the field.   That totals about 100 years for you and I.

Few here wear rosier colored glasses then I do.  I'd like to think this defense will play with passion, be in position, and tackle in space.  If you think they will do all of these things, then your optimism is justified.  But comparing the two-deep to last year, you have to swallow pretty hard.

I'm not as skeptical. In the Secondary we have Pulley, Ramirez, Coley, Liddell, Richardson and Toliver (who may be seeing work at LB) and apparently Reid Miller (though smallish) has come along nicely. 5 of those players combine for 93 starts and 247 game appearances in their time here.

I am concerned about depth at NT but both Bijhon and Capps have experience playing in the middle. It appears we will have to lean on Marshall for a 3rd team back up.

I think we will be fine at DE with Agim on one side and maybe Roesler at the other. T.J. Smith may be in the mix and we really need Guidry and Dean to step up their game to provide a two deep rotation.

At LB we are going to have Dejon, LaFrance, Greenlaw, Josh Harris and maybe Jean-Baptiste in the middle. The OLB is more of a concern to me in terms of depth with Ramsey, Taylor, Eugene and Dee Walker.

I may not have all of these guys in the right positions as I know that they are moving them around but I think we are good enough at the two-deep. It is more a matter of learning the defense and the calls and being more certain than last year that we are properly aligned and not out of position.

The overall attitude on defense from what I hear is a lot different than last year and this defense will allow us to be more flexible and pro active (attacking) than our 4-3 concept LY under Smith. Not enough adjustments and being too predictable made is easier for OC's to move us around the field to open up opportunities for them. Add in being out of position frequently and you can see why there were so many attempted arm tackles LY.

I'm going to be optimistic about our chances until it comes time to not be optimistic but I certainly expect Rhoads to be far more capable and get more out of the defense than Robb Smith did the last 2 seasons.
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LZH

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #42 on: April 11, 2017, 09:49:14 am »

Good job as usual, MHF.  Always much appreciated.
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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #43 on: April 11, 2017, 10:25:52 am »

Take out the Auburn game and the defense didn't play that bad last year. Out of those 63 plays they would collapse on about 10-12 (just a guess) chunk plays which ran up the score. Or allowed a team back into the game. If they can pressure the QB and hold the edge then I think your 10% reduction is doable. I think.  ;D

Another benefit of improving the defense to at least middle of the pack keeps pressure off the offense from feeling they have to score every drive.

Look at these games in terms of big plays allowed.

Vs. Auburn
Total Plays:            69-632 yds-9.2 p/play
Big Plays:               18-440 yds-24.4 p/play
Remainder:             51-192 yds-3.8 p/play

Vs. Alabama
Total Plays:             51-517 yds-10.1 p/play
Big Plays:                12-345 yds-28.8 p/play
Remainder:              39-172 yds-4.4 p/play

Vs. Texas A&M
Total Plays:             59-591 yds-10.0 p/play
Big Plays:                16-504 yds-31.5 p/play
Remainder:              43-87 yards-2.0 p/play

That's just an example. Basically we allowed big plays to our opponents on 20-25% of their plays throughout the season.

Limit the big plays to a greater extent, improve ability to be less predictable, increased aggressiveness in terms of style, being aligned properly and better tackling will make the 2017 defense far more productive.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2017, 10:55:02 am by MuskogeeHogFan »
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bphi11ips

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #44 on: April 11, 2017, 10:59:57 am »

I'm not as skeptical. In the Secondary we have Pulley, Ramirez, Coley, Liddell, Richardson and Toliver (who may be seeing work at LB) and apparently Reid Miller (though smallish) has come along nicely. 5 of those players combine for 93 starts and 247 game appearances in their time here.

I am concerned about depth at NT but both Bijhon and Capps have experience playing in the middle. It appears we will have to lean on Marshall for a 3rd team back up.

I think we will be fine at DE with Agim on one side and maybe Roesler at the other. T.J. Smith may be in the mix and we really need Guidry and Dean to step up their game to provide a two deep rotation.

At LB we are going to have Dejon, LaFrance, Greenlaw, Josh Harris and maybe Jean-Baptiste in the middle. The OLB is more of a concern to me in terms of depth with Ramsey, Taylor, Eugene and Dee Walker.

I may not have all of these guys in the right positions as I know that they are moving them around but I think we are good enough at the two-deep. It is more a matter of learning the defense and the calls and being more certain than last year that we are properly aligned and not out of position.

The overall attitude on defense from what I hear is a lot different than last year and this defense will allow us to be more flexible and pro active (attacking) than our 4-3 concept LY under Smith. Not enough adjustments and being too predictable made is easier for OC's to move us around the field to open up opportunities for them. Add in being out of position frequently and you can see why there were so many attempted arm tackles LY.

I'm going to be optimistic about our chances until it comes time to not be optimistic but I certainly expect Rhoads to be far more capable and get more out of the defense than Robb Smith did the last 2 seasons.

I like the young linebackers, especially De'Jon Harris.  But the key word there is "young".  Same with Agim and Capps.  Hopefully Michael Taylor will play well at end, but A&M will be his first SEC game.  Losing Tevin Beanum hurt. 

I think the best we can hope for, especially if 3-4 becomes the dominant scheme, is to begin to jell midseason and close strong.
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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #45 on: April 11, 2017, 11:23:57 am »

For a multitude of reasons, I think our defense will be improved over last year. Now do I think they are going to allow just 300 ypg? No. But I wouldn't be surprised to see us around 375 ypg.
I think it will be greatly improved if for no other reason than all of the talent we have returning and the fact that last year's production was the worst we have seen since before HDN.
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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #46 on: April 11, 2017, 11:43:33 am »

Get some speed on the field. Find the ball and stop its progress (in other words, make the tackle).
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bennyl08

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #47 on: April 11, 2017, 11:43:51 am »

Of course I hope you're right.  But those reasons can't be based on personnel and experience.  Only one returning player, Dre Greenlaw, can really be counted as an upperclassman proven SEC starter.

So, Bijhon Jackson can't be counted on? Eugene? Pulley? Not to mention Coley is good at his role, Ramirez has been solid, and Liddell is a decent but not great safety.

Quote
And that assumes he returns at full strength after a long rehab. 

His rehab hasn't been all that long, and it's quite rare for a player not to return to full strength after such an injury, so should be a pretty safe assumption.

Quote
We lost four senior linemen, all of whom were considered to be the strength of the defense,

Brandon Lewis was a strength of the defense? Wise Jr was considered a strength of the defense going into the season, but he's been riddled with injuries his whole career here and never quite materialized as a major player for us despite testing better at the combine than Flowers and showing flashed. Taiwan Johnson was a multi-year starter for us, but didn't get a combine invite even nor did he test that well at the pro day. He was a solid player but wasn't really considered a weapon/strength of our defense. Ledbetter was considered a strength and he was. However, we struggled finding a position for him as he was never fully fit in with the 4-3.

Quote
a four year starter at MLB, another senior situational LB,

Losing Ellis hurts, but Harris is going to be better. Calling Josh Williams a situational LB is stretching his involvement a bit much. Our deep snapper, Emrich had twice as many tackles...

Quote
and our two best defenders in the secondary.

Collins was one of our best cover corners no doubt. But Dean? He was a physical corner, but was passed over on the depth chart by Toliver and Pulley so he was at best, our fourth best cornerback, and I'd put Coley and Ramirez above him as well.

Quote
All of this from the worst defense any of us have ever seen Arkansas put on the field.   That totals about 100 years for you and I.

You over-exaggerate the losses while ignoring the pluses of who we return and who we have added to the mix.

Quote
Few here wear rosier colored glasses then I do.  I'd like to think this defense will play with passion, be in position, and tackle in space.  If you think they will do all of these things, then your optimism is justified.  But comparing the two-deep to last year, you have to swallow pretty hard.

Have you been checked for colorblindness, thinking your glasses are one of the rosiest?

Compare the two deep this year on defense to last year, and you have to try really hard not to be quite optimistic.
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factchecker

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #48 on: April 11, 2017, 12:00:09 pm »

Good work Benny. It's weird that some fans would discount or overlook the play of Pulley.


Add Coley, Santos, and let's not forget McTelvin Agim.  That's several other players aside from Greenlaw who are "proven SEC starters".
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bennyl08

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Re: Our Defense Since 2002: Where are we headed now?
« Reply #49 on: April 11, 2017, 12:30:23 pm »

Good work Benny. It's weird that some fans would discount or overlook the play of Pulley.


Add Coley, Santos, and let's not forget McTelvin Agim.  That's several other players aside from Greenlaw who are "proven SEC starters".

Agim doesn't count as he specified upperclassmen in his requirements.
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