2024 SEC Football Projections, Updates

[jbcarol]

Initial leans on early lines for Texas at Michigan, LSU vs USC and other big non-conference matchups in the 2024 season

by:
Jesse Simonton
•

2024 college football season will feature some juicy non-conference games, including LSU-USC squaring off in Las Vegas and Texas making a Week 2 trip to the Big House to play the reigning national champion Michigan Wolverines.

FanDuel Sportsbook recently updated more than a dozen early betting lines for some big games in 2024. Dynamics can (and will) change:


Georgia (-12.5) vs. Clemson (Atlanta)
Early Lean: The Bulldogs are the preseason favorites for the 2024-25 national title, so it's no surprise they open as a big favorite over a Tigers team looking to replicate their championship success again under Dabo

LSU (-6.5) vs. USC (Las Vegas)
Early Lean: This is an incredible matchup between two programs looking to replace the last two Heisman Trophy winners —

A&M (-1.5) vs. Notre Dame
Early Lean: Mike Elko will kickstart his tenure as the Aggies' head coach going up against his former quarterback and top defensive lineman at Duke (Riley Leonard and RJ Oben) in Week 1 against the Irish.

Texas (-2.5) at Michigan
Early Lean: Two of the four 2023 College Football Playoff representatives will meet in Week 2, and what a tremendous helmet game

A lot has changed in Ann Arbor.

[jbcarol]

Analyzing Tennessee's chances to win 10 games, make College Football Playoff

by:
Chandler Vessels
•

Just two years removed from an 11-win season, Tennessee is hopeful that it can make the College Football Playoff in 2024. The Volunteers have never made the CFP since its inception in 2014, but with the expanded 12-team field will have a greater chance than in the past.

Tennessee is currently has an over/under of 9.5 wins for the 2024 season according to FanDuel. If it can reach the 10-win mark, especially while facing a tough SEC schedule, one would think that could be enough to get the Vols in the playoff.

Brent Hubbs of VolQuest joined On3's Andy Staples to highlight the areas Tennessee needs to step up this season to reach the College Football Playoff.

"Certainly you can make that case (for a playoff berth) without a doubt," Hubbs said. "That's the fun part of it. Tennessee's in a conversation that they haven't been in much over the last decade-and-a-half. There's a relevancy factor there that hasn't been there. You can get every beat writer on here for every team that's projected as a playoff team with the exception of maybe Georgia, but there's a few teams you go 'that should be a playoff team.'

"There's a lot of people with a lot of holes. The transfer portal makes those holes very fillable very fast in a lot of ways if you hit. That's why you look at this thing, in particular Tennessee, Jermod McCoy at corner is really important for Tennessee. You look at Jakobe Thomas, who's a transfer from MTSU. He's got to hit because you're replacing two safeties on the back end who had a ton of experience.

"There's no more important position for Josh Heupel's offense, outside of quarterback, than the tight end spot," Hubbs said. "They play with a tight end almost exclusively on offense. They don't go four and five-wide even though there's depth at receiver. They want that tight end in there because they can manipulate so much in the run game with the ability to flex the tight end out, move him back and move him back in. Make him an end line blocker, an H-back. Can Holden Staes handle that?

"Ethan Davis, can he be physical enough? Where are they at that tight end position? They only really have two tight ends on the roster. Cole Harrison will be a third, who arrives this summer. But I'm not sure he's gonna be able to help them after being a high school senior graduating in May. If there's one position they can ill-afford an injury outside of quarterback, it's the tight end position. They must hit with Staes and they must stay healthy there for this offense to achieve what fans expect them to achieve with Nico, the balance in the run game and what we saw two years ago that everybody wants to try to get back to."

Tennessee's matchup vs. Alabama changes without Nick Saban...

[jbcarol]

College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy's Early Predictions for 2024


Updated:
Mar 18, 2024, 01:57 PM EDT

[jbcarol]

Elko updates injury recovery of Conner Weigman

by:
Matt Connolly
•

A&M quarterback Conner Weigman missed most of last season with a foot injury. Aggies head coach Mike Elko shared recently that Weigman is still working his way back to 100 percent.

The sophomore is taking part in spring practice, but he's not yet back fully healthy after being injured last September, per Elko.

"Still battling," Elko said when asked where Conner Weigman is at from a health standpoint. "He'll be out there practicing. I don't think he's exactly where he'd like to be long-term. Not that he's behind or anything or hasn't done what he's supposed to do or there's concerns. I just think he would obviously like to be a little bit healthier."

[jbcarol]

Evaluating Florida's early-season home games vs. Miami, A&M, UCF

by:
Steve Samra
•

On3's Andy Staples and J.D. PicKell reacted to it

"There's nothing that's going to be said that's going to remedy the thing that Steve Spurrier said, that Princely Umanmielen said. What's gonna help remedy this is getting a win week one against Miami, start the season off with a bang and then we — you know, don't even think about this," PicKell said, regarding Florida's current predicament.

Staples: "It's one of those crazy games where it does not matter who wins. The opposing fan base is going to want to jump off a cliff."

"This whole game, not to go back too far to this preview. If it were played at a neutral site, I'd probably lean pretty heavily towards Miami," PicKell added. "Maybe that's me, like you just said, with the recency bias. Maybe that's me drinking the Cam Ward Kool-Aid.

"But the fact that it's played in Gainesville, in the swamp, just throws a total variable of like, who the heck knows what's about to happen in this game kind of feel."

Andy Staples on Florida's 'scary' early season schedule...

[jbcarol]

Making the case for college football's most-improved offense in 2024

by:
Kaiden Smith
•

On3's Andy Staples selected three teams that he believes will have the most improved offenses in 2024 compared to their production last season.

Auburn Tigers
Staples tabs Auburn as one of the offenses that will make a jump in the 2024 season in their second season under head coach Hugh Freeze. Believing that one particular five-star weapon in their most recent recruiting class has the potential to take their offense to another level.

"I do know that of all the recruits in the class of 2025 Jeremiah Smith, receiver at Ohio State, probably the one people are most excited about. Cam Coleman the receiver coming to Auburn, probably a close second, and Ohio State they're used to having incredible receivers all the time. Auburn? When is the last time Auburn had a truly dominant receiver?" Staples asked. "It's been a long time ... so this is a guy that should scare everybody."

Utah

Penn State

[jbcarol]

Brian Kelly shares what to expect from 2024 LSU football season

by:
Justin Rudolph
•

LSU Tigers have had two respectable seasons in Brian Kelly's first two years at the helm. In year one, the Tigers made it to the SEC title game against Georgia. In the following season, they had one of the most potent offenses in the country, led by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels.

But as many individuals (Coach O ) know, when it comes to sports, the past is the past.

"I don't know that we'll have any one singular superstar like we had this past year, but I think the sum is going to be greater than any one of our parts. I think there's a lot of depth on this football team that we've developed over the past couple of years. I think that there is a winning culture that's developed over the past two years of winning games."

"So I think you'll find a football team that's a lot more balanced. I think on offense and defense, as you know, we were one-sided. We were an offensive football team where we needed to have better balance. So I think you'll see a better-balanced football team in all areas and a deep team where you'll see a lot of contributors."

Jayden Daniels honors LSU teammate Greg Brooks Jr. at Pro Day amid cancer battle

[jbcarol]

How many teams can win the 2024 national title?
by:
Jesse Simonton
•

It's a simple question, yet one that invariably would return multiple answers depending on who you polled.

FanDuel Sportsbook recently updated its title odd for next season, with 11 teams holding odds at +2800 or better.

Georgia (+300)
Texas (+700)
Alabama (+1300)
LSU (+1500)
Ole Miss (+1500)

How many of those teams — or even others ranked right below them like Clemson, Tennessee, Missouri or USC — can win the 2024 national title?

The fact is, in an expanded 12-team field the group of teams that can win three or four games is even smaller than a contenders list in season's past.

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart laid out exactly why in a wide-ranging Q&A with ESPN over the weekend.

"It keeps your hopes alive with one loss, maybe two," the two-time national champion head coach said when asked about his thoughts on the 12-team playoff in 2024. 

"A lot of coaches have complained that once they lost a game, their kids just said that they were done. There won't be as much of that. Everybody's fighting for the same thing, and that's the beauty of making those last three or four weeks really, really eventful. I know some people say, 'It devalues the late-season games because you'll know you're in.' Well, there will be more people in the hunt now. So there will be a lot of meaningful games. That team with two losses late in the year that has played a tough schedule is going to be fighting and scratching to earn that 12th spot."

The biggest benefactors of the expanded playoff aren't the teams that suddenly get fair representation. It's the who's who that now get a mulligan — or more — only to find their footing come season's end and roll through the playoffs.

Like, say a 9-3 Alabama.

We're about to enter a season where the national title winner will play a record 17 or 18 games. Only the elite rosters stacked with blue-chip talent will withstand that much pounding.

[jbcarol]

Graham Mertz: Florida's daunting 2024 schedule providing 'urgency'
Derek Peterson | 

Graham Mertz quipped he decided on a sixth season of college football so he could make 1 more appearance on The Paul Finebaum Show. Florida's suffered through 3 consecutive losing seasons...

Gators will face what many believe will be the hardest schedule in the country. Strength-of-schedule metrics aren't available yet, but Florida could be looking at an all-timer when it's all said and done.

Florida will face each of the other 3 top in-state programs — season-opener vs. Miami on Aug. 31, UCF on Oct. 5, at Florida State on Nov. 30. The Gators have road SEC games against Tennessee and Texas.

In the month of November, they play 5 straight weeks against Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State. In Bill Connelly's preseason SP+ rankings for 2024, those teams rank No. 1, No. 4, No. 10, No. 8, and No. 12, respectively.

Napier finds himself in a make-or-break year; the program hasn't seen 4 consecutive losing seasons since 1935-38.

"This is why you come to the SEC, this is why you play at Florida, for these matchups," Mertz said. "You want to play at the highest level against the greatest competition. We know what's ahead of us, we see it every day when we walk in the locker room, and that excites us. We feel the urgency every day when we come in here, knowing we've got to work, especially in this league.

"It all comes down to execution and what you do in the offseason. For us, we know what people are saying but what happens in these walls, we know what we're striving for and we know it takes consistency and attention to detail every day. We're excited. We see that and we see it as opportunity."

[jbcarol]

O'Gara: LSU's defense struggled in the spring game

It can't be that bad again ...

Right  

At some point between watching a receiver get 17 yards of separation on the game's first play and a botched "duck, duck, goose" celebration, reality sank in.

Another LSU defense is getting cooked.

[jbcarol]

Which college football programs NEED to win a national title soon?

by: Andy Staples
•

A&M
Last national title: 1939

No one is expecting Mike Elko to win a national title in his first year in College Station. The Aggies just spent six seasons expecting Jimbo Fisher to win a national title, and all that got them was a schedule of massive buyout payments.

But Texas A&M does have a decent talent base upon which to build, and if Elko can combine the coaching/culture wizardry he demonstrated in two seasons at Duke with the kind of high school and portal recruiting Texas A&M should be capable of, national title contention should be the goal.

Texas
Last national title: 2005

The Longhorns staggered through the 2010s trying to recapture the glory of the 2000s. The program took serious backward steps in terms of development. But now Texas is... nah, we're not going to say it quite yet.

And that's why Texas needs to win a title.

Oklahoma
Last national title: 2000

The Sooners are in a strange place. They haven't won a national title in 24 years, but because they dominated the Big 12 for most of the 21st century we tend to lump them in with teams that won national titles

Tennessee
Last national title: 1998

There are a LOT of usernames on the Internet that include some form of the phrase "Feels like '98." With all due respect — and that is a significant amount of respect —

These programs and other B1G programs need a title like a fat man needs cake.

[jbcarol]

O'Gara: A&M likely won't wreck the SEC in 2024

Nic Scourton will

No. 11 was a menace on Saturday. He had 7 tackles, 3.5 sacks and he unofficially had 2.5 sacks (sic), but it felt like more. That didn't include the times he appeared to have a clear path to Conner Weigman but he threw his hands up, nor did those stats include him beating Weigman to the edge and forcing him to bury a throw into the dirt.

By day's end, it was clear that Mike Elko's best player on the field was the all-important Scourton, who could soon have Saturdays like that against SEC offenses.

Yeah, it was a spring game.

Sure.

[jbcarol]

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The 6'2 210 LB from Manassas, VA is ranked as the No. 4 LB in '25 (per On3 Industry)

Where Should He Go ⬇️

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[jbcarol]

Why didn't the spring transfer portal window alter the 2024 national championship picture

by: Jesse Simonton
•

So much for transfer portal Armageddon, huh?

The 2024 spring window closed Wednesday, and while a few more names may trickle out in the next day or so (schools have 48 hours to officially submit a player's name), the carousel of movement should stop until the holidays this December.

Hundreds of FBS players tested the waters over the two weeks, but while notables like Kadyn Proctor, Damien Martinez and Dylan Edwards, among others, switched teams, there wasn't some cataclysm of fireworks many anticipated.

Star players didn't start suddenly switching teams because of major NIL deals. 

Of the Top 50 transfers in the 2024 cycle, per On3, just seven have or will change teams this spring — three of whom (Proctor, Tyler Baron and Peny Boone) are on their second transfer this year.

Ultimately, the blockbuster teasers for the spring window were mostly a bust, which was great news for many of college football's 2024 title contenders.

[jbcarol]

Greg McElroy breaks down win totals for Auburn, Oklahoma in 2024
Spenser Davis | 6 minutes ago

Greg McElroy broke down Auburn and Oklahoma:

2024 campaign will be a pivotal one for both the Tigers and Sooners. Auburn is entering Year 2 of the Hugh Freeze era and is hoping to take a big step forward offensively this upcoming season. For Oklahoma, Brent Venables is entering Year 3 in Norman as OU transitions to the SEC.

Both Auburn and Oklahoma have win totals set at 7.5, according to ESPN BET. McElroy made the case for both teams.

For Auburn, McElroy praised how Freeze's staff has rebuilt the WR room this offseason with the additions of KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Penn State transfer) and Cam Coleman (5-star freshman).

"I think KeAndre Lambert-Smith is rock solid," McElroy said. "Will he ultimately be the No. 1 wide receiver? I don't know if I can go that far. But I do think incoming freshman Cam Coleman could be. That guy could be an immediate difference-maker. They really needed to bolster their personnel at wide receiver."

For Oklahoma, McElroy is optimistic about new starter Jackson Arnold.

McElroy said he'd take Auburn to have more wins than Oklahoma in 2024 — partially because of OU's difficult schedule.

"I think Oklahoma has a very, very difficult schedule," McElroy said. "And while I like them an awful lot this year, it's tough for me to have a ton of confidence in telling you right now that 'without question, they're going over the 7.5-win plateau.'

McElroy said he sees 6 "losable" games for Auburn on its schedule and 7 such contests for Oklahoma.

[jbcarol]

2024 Running Back Unit Rankings: Ohio State duo nets top spot but Penn State, Georgia also feature loaded rooms

by: Jesse Simonton
•

Georgia
In one of the wilder transfer portal moves this offseason, Florida tailback Trevor Etienne switched sides in the border war rivalry, instantly upgrading UGA's running back room.

In Etienne, the Bulldogs added a versatile playmaker with true three-down skills (7.0 yards per touch in 2023). The junior will be the team's No. 1 'back, but with options like Rod and Branson Robinson (coming off a major injury) as well as talented freshmen Nate Frazier (Top 50 prospect nationally) and Chauncey Bowens, this is likely a room that will share a lot of carries.

5. Ole Miss
Credit to Lane Kiffin, as Ole Miss' head coach didn't sweat losing Quinshon Judkins to THE^TM Ohio State

6. Bama
The Crimson Tide's running back room doesn't return the production of many of the other units on this list, but what they lack in stats is made up for in raw upside

9. Texas
Like Alabama, Texas' running back room is all about projection, but the upside with CJ Baxter, a former 5-star recruit, and Jaydon Blue is undeniable. They get to run behind one of the best OLs in our nation

Just Missed: West Virginia, Oregon, Cal, Oklahoma

[jbcarol]

O'Gara: The ceiling for each SEC team in 2024

I believe 8 SEC teams have Playoff upside in 2024.

Many things can determine a ceiling. Strength of schedule — at least how it's perceived in the preseason —

Alabama — 11-1 ceiling
The over/under on Alabama's regular season wins at 9.5 (via DraftKings) because as respected as Kalen DeBoer is, it's still a new coaching staff with a challenging schedule to navigate. But no returning player finished higher in the 2023 Heisman Trophy voting than Milroe

Arkansas — 7-5 ceiling
It all comes down to the Taylen Green-Bobby Petrino marriage being a happy one. So far, so good. Pre-spring, this was a 6-6 ceiling. Post-spring, I'm talking myself into a much-improved offensive line with a more hands-on Sam Pittman, along with some defensive scheme continuity being important. As bad as last year was, 5 of those losses were by 1 score.

Auburn — 8-4 ceiling
A pair of new coordinators and a not-new quarterback is why the Tigers don't have 9-3 upside.

Florida — 7-5 ceiling
I almost went with 8-4, but I can't because a team with 3 consecutive losing seasons doesn't have an 8-4 ceiling with a schedule that brutal.

Georgia — 12-0 ceiling
It's a team with 2 losses (and 2 titles) in the last 3 seasons, both of which were to Alabama in the SEC Championship.

Kentucky — 8-4 ceiling
Two things can be true at the same time. One is that Mark Stoops has undoubtedly elevated the floor of UK in a significant way. The other is that 2 wins vs. SEC teams who finished with a winning conference record in the Stoops era means the ceiling is still limited.

LSU — 10-2 ceiling
I was tempted to go with 11-1, but that spring game didn't make me feel great about the notion that defense improvement is imminent under the well-paid new DC Blake Baker.

State — 6-6 ceiling
It's a Year 0 for Jeff Lebby. Period. Having 41 players enter the portal since the end of the 2022 season is significant, especially when the Bulldogs don't recruit at a top-10 level

Mizzou — 10-2 ceiling
What a time to be alive. Mizzou's offensive ceiling is top 10 nationally. That's how impressed I was with Kirby Moore as the OC

Oklahoma — 9-3 ceiling
If not for Florida, we'd all be talking about Oklahoma's schedule. It's a nightmare. You've got 6 teams who won at least 9 games last year, 4 of which were in a New Year's 6/Playoff game in 2023. That's tough

Ole Miss — 11-1 ceiling
Entering 2023, Lane Kiffin was searching for his first win against a Power 5 team who won at least 9 regular season games since 2012. Then he beat LSU and Penn State en route to the program's first 11-win season, thus, dunking on my stat. So yes, an 11-1 ceiling exists for a team that dominated the transfer portal with Princely Umanmielen, Walter Nolen, Chris Paul Jr., Juice Kiffin and Logan Diggs

South Carolina — 7-5 ceiling
It's a schedule with 6 matchups against teams who won at least 9 games in 2023. That's not including a matchup at Kentucky, or a matchup vs. an A&M team that South Carolina has 1 win against since they became annual rivals.

Tennessee — 10-2 ceiling
The Vols might have the best returning defensive player in the country in James Pearce Jr.

Texas — 12-0 ceiling
I never thought I'd be the guy saying Texas could realistically have an undefeated regular season

A&M — 8-4 ceiling
The Aggies have 2 things working in their favor. One is that all of their biggest games (Notre Dame, Mizzou, LSU and Texas) are at home and nobody that they play away from home had a winning record in 2023. A&M also ranks No. 1 in the SEC in percentage of returning production with a team that updated at the head coaching spot.

Vanderbilt — 4-8 ceiling
Entering 2024, Vandy is:

A) Seeking to end a 10-game losing streak vs. Core 4 opponents
B) Replacing both coordinators
C) Dealing with 25 players lost via the transfer portal
D) Stay within single digits vs. SEC competition for the first time since Nov. 19, 2022 vs. Florida
E) All the above

It's always "E"

[jbcarol]

McElroy explains reasons behind cautious optimism

Auburn's 2024 season
Paul Harvey | 

Greg McElroy is starting to believe in Auburn's potential for the 2024 season. Though he's not willing to throw caution out the window, the ESPN analyst and broadcaster admitted he is becoming "cautiously optimistic" about the potential for Hugh Freeze's team.

Mc specifically pointed to Auburn's work in the transfer portal this offseason. Those additions hold a key role for the 2024 season with the Tigers returning just 65% of their total production from a season ago, including 55% on the defensive side:

"You look at the additions in the portal, and this is why I'm cautiously optimistic about Auburn. I think KeAndre Lambert-Smith is rock-solid. Will he ultimately be the No. 1 receiver? I won't go that far, but I do think incoming freshman Cam Coleman could be," predicted McElroy. "That guy could be an immediate difference-maker."

[jbcarol]

Joel Klatt reveals post-spring Top 25 rankings for 2024

by: Kaiden Smith
•

Check out Klatt's post-spring top 25 rankings

2. Georgia

Georgia was a close call to be crowned as Klatt's top team ahead of the season, especially with the return of quarterback Beck. But a tough schedule that features road games against Texas, Alabama, and Ole Miss

3. Texas

Longhorns occupy the No. 3 spot following their most impressive season since 2009 after winning the Big 12 title and making their first College Football Playoff appearance. Texas joins the SEC and has some key pieces to replace from last year

5. Ole Miss

On paper Ole Miss has one of the most talented rosters across college football, thus the Rebels cracking Klatt's top five following an impressive transfer portal haul by head coach Lane Kiffin.

7. Alabama

Klatt admitted that Alabama was the hardest team to rank on his top 25 given their massive roster turnover and the departure of the greatest college football coach.

10. Missouri

Rounding out Klatt's top 10 are the Missouri Tigers, fresh off of an impressive and unexpected 11-2 season that was capped of with a Cotton Bowl victory over Ohio State. And despite losing some key pieces from last year's squad, Klatt believes Mizzou will continue their dominance in 2024.

"Missouri's coming off that 11-win year and I don't think that they'll slow down, although they do lose a lot of players. They lost a lot of draft picks in night one and night two in the NFL Draft," Klatt said. "They do have Brady Cook, he's entering his third year as a starter and Luther Burden is maybe the best wide receiver in all of college football."

14. LSU

16. Tennessee

17. Oklahoma

25. Texas A&M

[jbcarol]

Georgia or Ohio State? Analysts unified on preseason No. 1 entering summer
Paul Harvey | 

While the analysts have Ohio State as the top team coming out of the spring, Georgia still headlines the national championship odds entering 2024 at +320.

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Alabama Crimson Tide in 2024

by: Alex Weber
•

Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire took on the mountainous task of evaluating the ceiling and floor for each SEC football team heading into the first year of the expanded conference.

Alabama's range of outcomes may be a little bit wider this year with the unknowns that come with no longer having Nick Saban:

Ceiling: National Championship
Staples made no compromises on his expectations and believes Alabama fans should still uphold those national title expectations even in year one.

"The return of Kadyn Proctor sort of was the tipping point for me," he commented.

Floor: 9-3
Shifting the focus towards a worst-case scenario, Staples struggles to see how Alabama loses four

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Texas Longhorns in 2024

by: Nick Kosko
•

Ceiling: National Championship
Now, this ceiling is certainly movable for Texas. But Staples and Bellaire think this team in 2024 will make a big run based on its regular season schedule.

"Basically put the SEC on notice and say like hey guys, like we can play with you guys."

Ewers back, backed up by Arch Manning, bring in wide receiver Bond, Isaiah Bond...

Floor: 9-3 regular season
It's tough to see Texas lose more than two games, but the floor might be a maximum of three losses, according to Staples.

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Georgia Bulldogs in 2024

by: Kaiden Smith
•

The standards in Athens have been sky-high since Georgia head coach Kirby Smart led the Bulldogs to a national championship appearance in his second season.

This upcoming season is loaded with changes surrounding the Bulldogs, to the SEC getting rid of divisions and adding Oklahoma and Texas to the fold.

CEILING: National championship
Georgia has firmly supplanted themselves in the national championship conversation annually following their recent success. Boasting a 42-2 record in the past three seasons with two national championships to their name, and nobody would be surprised if they were able to take home another

FLOOR: 8-4
Before Georgia fans start a riot, both Staples and Bellaire believe that the Bulldogs losing four games during the regular season is very unlikely. But given their tough schedule, there's no question that UGA will be tested in their first season in the new look SEC.

"I had 8-4, because I thought losing to Clemson might be a possibility. But the more I think about it, I don't think they're going to," Staples admitted.

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Tennessee Volunteers in 2024

by: Dan Morrison
•

2024 season is looking like it's going to be an exciting one for the Tennessee Volunteers. It's also one in which head coach Josh Heupel knows there's going to be high expectations.

CEILING: College Football Playoff
There's going to be a very high ceiling on the Tennessee Volunteers this season, with Andy Staples arguing that he thinks the Volunteers could make their first trip to the College Football Playoff in 2024. That's in no small part due to a relatively manageable schedule compared to their peers.

Cody Bellaire agreed that a potential Playoff run is on the table for Tennessee. That's largely because of Nico

FLOOR: 8-4
Both Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire are clearly excited for what Tennessee could be this season. Because of that, they set the Volunteers' floor for 2024 at 8-4.

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Florida in 2024

by: Griffin McVeigh
•

Not many coaches have more riding on the 2024 season than Billy Napier. His first two seasons at Florida have resulted in losing records and the pressure to perform is on. Only problem —

CEILING: 8-4
Everyone in Florida is looking for a best-case scenario. And despite the roster upgrades, where Bellaire believes a better product, both offensively and defensively, will be put on the field —

FLOOR: 3-9
Now looking at worst case scenario for Florida, Staples and Bellaire say the Gators' floor is 3-9. A record that would certainly have Napier looking for a job this offseason, Bellaire wonders if there is a scenario where Florida moves on midseason.

"If they're 1-2, going into Mississippi State," Bellaire began. "If that team loses on the road to the new Mississippi State Bulldogs with Jeff Lebby at the helm, I think that seat is absolute fire, read hot."

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for LSU in 2024

by: Thomas Goldkamp
•

Tigers are coming off a second straight 10-win season under coach Brian Kelly, but LSU will have to replace a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback and two first-round NFL Draft picks at receiver

CEILING: College Football Playoff appearance
Both Staples and Bellaire felt pretty good about LSU's potential to have a really good offense again, even with Jayden Daniels now off

FLOOR: 7-5 or 6-6 regular season
When you start talking about LSU's floor in 2024 the first thing that comes to mind is the defense. It has been the problem spot in recent years. And the Tigers probably haven't fared quite as well in the transfer portal as they'd have hoped.

What does that mean for the defense? Well, the jury is still out.

"We had a long talk with Billy Embody on the show on Tuesday," Staples said. "And I was not jolted with much confidence for LSU's defense. I did not get that surge of confidence that I was hoping Billy might be able to give me."

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Ole Miss in 2024

by: Nick Kosko
•

Ceiling: Win one, multiple College Football Playoff games
Staples is of the mind Ole Miss should be in the bracket once we hit the postseason. How far do the Rebels get?

Floor: 8-4 regular season
Ole Miss will hit this floor if everything goes wrong, essentially.

"I've got the floor for them at 8-4, and that's an abject disaster if things go completely wrong," Staples said. "They do play some good teams and they play some teams like, we talked about, like the Florida situation, when they go to Gainesville, right after they play Georgia. That can be a little bit tricky. But if Florida is bad at that time, like let's say they've already fallen off or hit a really bad stretch, then no, it's not going to be tough. Like you're gonna win that game. ..."

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Missouri in 2024

by: Kaiden Smith
•

Tigers turned some heads last season after finishing the year with the program's best record since 2014. Ending the season 11-2 capped off with a Cotton Bowl victory over Ohio State.

But with a multitude of key players ending their time with the program including six NFL Draft selections, many are curious if head coach Drink and his squad can match their success in 2024 ahead of a season featuring numerous changes.

CEILING: Double-digit wins, College Football Playoff
With the Tigers finishing last season with a No. 9 ranking in the final College Football Playoff poll, them making the CFP in this year's expanded 12-team playoff is not unrealistic. Especially after doing a solid job on paper of replacing their lost production and being dealt a favorable schedule in a new look SEC.

FLOOR: 8-4
Eight wins for the Tigers next season would represent their second-best finish in the past six seasons only trailing their standout 2023 campaign. Showing a quick shift in their culture and expectations from both inside and outside of the program as of late.

"I had 8-4 as the floor if the defense does not come around and again you lost some really impactful players and your coordinator. But I don't think it's much worse than that," Staples said. "And you think about where they were a couple years ago, the idea that the floor for Missouri in the SEC, an SEC that includes Texas and Oklahoma, that the floor is 8-4. That's a pretty big jump for them."

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Kentucky in 2024

by: Nick Kosko
•

Kentucky has a very interesting ceiling and floor this coming season, according to On3's Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire.

The ceiling and floor are close together, but that's a good and bad thing.

Ceiling: 9-3 regular season
Can the Wildcats have a lot of success this season? Sure they can. But Kentucky has a brutal scheduled (sic) in the SEC.

Floor: Go 6-6 in the regular season
Bellaire doesn't have high expectations of Kentucky, but it's at least a team that's going to be competitive. How many wins does that exactly translate to though?

"Like I think there's a world in which this team can pretty comfortably lose five games this year," Bellaire said. "And I say comfortably lose in the sense where you look at the matchup and you're like, well, they weren't supposed to win that one. I think there's five games on the schedule where you say that This team could go .500 Andy, I think that's very realistic."

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Oklahoma Sooners in 2024

by: Alex Weber
•

Ceiling: CFP berth
Andy Staples declared that "Oklahoma is a big mystery right now" and he could see any range of outcomes for the Sooners this fall, including a playoff appearance. "My ceiling is CFP berth and I believe anything in between."

Floor: 6-6
For as great as Oklahoma's roster is in other areas, Staples and Bellaire really believe that offensive line could be the killer, especially if they are getting beat up early on to send Arnold running for his life.

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Texas A&M in 2024

by: Thomas Goldkamp
•

Today it's time to take a look at Texas A&M.

They both agreed the ceiling for Texas A&M is quite high, though the floor is low enough that there's a wide range of possible outcomes:

CEILING: 10 wins, College Football Playoff appearance
Texas A&M's ceiling is almost certainly a product of some serious recruiting in the last few years. The Aggies aren't hurting for talent, even if it hasn't necessarily been developed at the college level just yet.

FLOOR: 5-7 regular season
If things don't go well for the Aggies this fall, there's probably one area of the team that will have come up a little short.

But just in general the roster may not be as good as many in College Station are hoping. That was the consensus Bellaire got in speaking to industry colleagues.

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for South Carolina in 2024

by: Andrew Graham
•

Where South Carolina will sit in the pecking order of the new-look SEC come this fall will, ultimately, get sorted out on the field. But On3's Andy Staples and Bellaire took a stab:

CEILING: 8-4 season
The optimists take on South Carolina in 2024 was mostly taken on be Bellaire, who revealed his high — very high, for that matter — hopes for new quarterback LaNorris Sellers.

While Staples didn't necessarily come to it with the same thinking, he did agree with Bellaire that the general talent level at South Carolina is high enough to surprise some folks

FLOOR: 4-8 season
For as good as things could go for the Gamecocks, there's every chance that a new quarterback, remaining questions about line depth and a gauntlet of a schedule could sink them.

"That schedule is hard. It is hard," Staples said. "They're at Oklahoma, they get Missouri in Columbia. Ole Miss comes to Williams-Brice Stadium, LSU comes to Williams-Brice Stadium. They're in Tuscaloosa, they're at Clemson this year, they're at Kentucky. This is a very difficult schedule, but what you're saying, what you're describing is you are leaning toward that ceiling I suggested."

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Mississippi State in 2024

by: Kaiden Smith
•

2024 football season will mark the start of the Jeff Lebby era in Starkville, with the longtime offensive coordinator making his head coaching debut this season as he'll look to set a new standard at Mississippi State.

CEILING: 7-5
It's no secret that Mississippi State's schedule is not doing Lebby any favors in year one with Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Ole Miss representing the Bulldogs' conference road opponents. But Staples and Bellaire believe that an undefeated record against MSU's non-conference opponents could set the team up to potentially knock off a few SEC teams and slide into bowl contention.

FLOOR: 3-9
"I have the floor for this team being three wins, it (the schedule) is brutal. It is absolutely brutal plus you're bringing in a new head coach, you're bringing in a new starter at quarterback in Blake Shapen at Baylor. He had some bright moments, but wasn't necessarily this big game-changer for that offense," Bellaire said. "The o-line is in rough shape, the defense has some holes in it. And I tell you what, I like Lebby, and I think he's going to get the offense figured out. But it's going to take some time."

[jbcarol]

Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Vanderbilt in 2024

by: Dan Morrison
•

2024 season will be the fourth for the Vanderbilt Commodores under head coach Clark Lea. At this point in the rebuild, the program is looking to show more improvement in the win and loss column. However, that won't be an easy task:

CEILING: 6-6, Bowl Game
Andy Staples gave Vanderbilt a ceiling of going 6-6 and making it to a bowl game this season. That is, in large part, because of some notable names Clark Lea added from New Mexico State.

"I've been waiting to talk about this quarterback...the Vanderbilt Commodores," Andy Staples said. "Not only do you get Diego Pavia from New Mexico State, you also get Jerry Kill as a consultant. I mean, come on now. If you're Clark Lea, Jerry Kill makes teams better, wins in impossible situations like New Mexico State, and then you bring in Diego Pavia who won at New Mexico State, which is a place where you are not supposed to be able to win as a quarterback."

FLOOR: 3-9
While making a bowl game is reasonable for Vanderbilt. The Commodores could just as easily struggle and end with just three wins.

[jbcarol]

Andy Staples asks 'burning question' in SEC heading into 2024 season

by: Griffin McVeigh
•

"Which of the SEC teams are going to make this first 12-team playoff?"

Even so, it's incredibly unlikely the conference sends seven teams to a 12-team playoff. Staples says "at most" four teams will make it but three is a more realistic number. SEC scheduling plays will heavily factor (sic) into the equation, with some having tougher opponents than others.

[jbcarol]

ESPN's Matt Barrie breaks down his SEC pecking order

Paul Harvey |

Matt Barrie firmly believes Georgia is the clear-cut No. 1 team for the 2024 season.

"Georgia's the runaway No. 1. I would put Texas No. 2... Then I think it's a battle with LSU getting in there and Ole Miss getting in there if you're looking at the pecking order in the SEC," Barrie explained.

Outlook for 2024
Oddsmakers agree with Barrie's initial assessment with Georgia (+190) the favorite to win the SEC at DraftKings and Texas following behind at +320. Ole Miss is third at +700 and Alabama, even under new head coach Kalen DeBoer, rounds out the top 4 at +850.

Setting that pecking order in the SEC also holds bigger than normal ramifications for the outlook for the 12-team College Football Playoff. The SEC champion will be a lock to make the field, but how many teams the conference gets in after that will be something to monitor.

By all measures, the No. 2 team in the SEC — whoever that winds up being —