247Sports predicts every SEC team's first SEC loss

[redleg]

It appears that 247Sports played it safe with these predictions. I'll be interested to see how wrong they are by the end of the season.
I will stick with my pre-season prediction, and say the Hogs first SEC loss will be to A&M.

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Nick-Saban-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Georgia-Bulldogs-Florida-Gators-LSU-Tigers-schedule-first-loss-SEC-134631369/

[go hogues]

I don't understand the hype MSU is receiving.

[Tejano Jawg]

I don't understand the hype MSU is receiving.

Neither do I. Someone must know something I don't. All I know is they lost the 2 most important positions on the field—quarterback and their entire defensive line—since last year.

The writer of this article seems pretty confident in Miss State's sister-wife Ole Miss too.

[nwahogfan1]

I don't understand the hype MSU is receiving.

So often teams are predicted based on how well they did last year.  MS ST had a good team last year and a VERY good defense but they lost a bunch on both sides of the ball so I just do not see them sustaining last years success but SEC writers will not do their research and make a more educated prediction.   

Fans live on the cool aid of very loyal and very biased reporters.   Reality is usually somewhere in the middle.

[PorkSoda]

So often teams are predicted based on how well they did last year. 

I usually base my predictions on how well they did next year.

[LZH]

Seems MSU has taken our place as normally the third or fourth best team in the west......

[rtr]

The media is in love with Joe Moorehead for some reason.  He underperformed last year and this year will be worse.

[redleg]

Seems MSU has taken our place as normally the third or fourth best team in the west......

Only for the moment.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Seems MSU has taken our place as normally the third or fourth best team in the west......

They should start trending down. I would sell now.

[Hogwild]

I don't understand the hype MSU is receiving.

based on their schedule- on paper they are penciling in 8 wins before they get to the toss ups games

4 OOC wins (ULL, USM, Kansas ST, ACU)
2 East wins (Tennessee & Kentucky)
2 West wins (Ole Miss & Arkansas)  Note State beat them 87-9 last season

2 possible upsets Top 15 teams (Auburn & A&M) Note State beat both teams last season
2 giant killers  Top 10 teams (Bama & LSU)

[Al Boarland]

I don't understand the hype MSU is receiving.

What hype?  This article is about their first loss.  Below is who they play leading up to Auburn.

Louisiana
Southern Miss
Kansas State
Kentucky

Everyone thinks we are going to beat Tucky, so they must be terrible, right?  Until proven otherwise the Miss St program is in better shape than we are.

[Porkys Revenge]

Seems MSU has taken our place as normally the third or fourth best team in the west......

Looks like they recruit really well. We stole Greg Brooks from them last year. I figured he'd be good in a couple years but dude has come in and grabbed a starting roll. Pretty amazing.

[26.2Hog]

The media is in love with Joe Moorehead for some reason.  He underperformed last year and this year will be worse.

Pretty much agree, but at the same time I won't talk trash about a team that beat us 52-6 last year.

[HogPharmer]

The media is in love with Joe Moorehead for some reason.  He underperformed last year and this year will be worse.

If going 8-4 in the regular season with a FIRST YEAR head coach is considered underperforming, then where do I sign up? 2 of those losses were on the road to Top 5 programs.

[RME]

If going 8-4 in the regular season with a FIRST YEAR head coach is considered underperforming, then where do I sign up? 2 of those losses were on the road to Top 5 programs.

This board has hated on Mississippi State forever. Until they give me reason to do so, I'm not gonna hold my breath.

They rank something like 92nd in the country in returning production for this year. If Moorhead wins 8 games with that, then yeah, I'm gonna say they'll be alright long-term.

[PharmacistHog]

What hype?  This article is about their first loss.  Below is who they play leading up to Auburn.

Louisiana
Southern Miss
Kansas State
Kentucky

Everyone thinks we are going to beat Tucky, so they must be terrible, right?  Until proven otherwise the Miss St program is in better shape than we are.

EVERY single post you have to include a backhand to the Hawgs.  I don't know if you just like to troll, or you are miserable, or you just aren't really even a fan.  Probably all three. 

[HogPharmer]

This board has hated on Mississippi State forever. Until they give me reason to do so, I'm not gonna hold my breath.

They rank something like 92nd in the country in returning production for this year. If Moorhead wins 8 games with that, then yeah, I'm gonna say they'll be alright long-term.

I don't think they'll maintain the level of success that Dan Mullen got them to. But it's obviously TBD. Do I think that Mullen probably would have won over Florida had he been on the other sideline? Absolutely. Especially with the level that Florida has been at the last several years PRIOR to Mullen's arrival there. Mullen took a 4 win Florida team and won 10 games in his first year there. That shows just how good of a coach that Mullen is (as if taking Mississippi State of all teams to a #1 position in the polls isn't proof enough).

Mullen also probably would have beaten Kentucky with his roster at Mississippi State too.

So a first year head coach lost 2 more games than what arguably the second best head coach in the conference would have won with the same players. I wouldn't really call that grossly underperforming.

[Boardon Hamsay]

I usually base my predictions on how well they did next year.

I go 4 years out to get a larger, forward based sample size for my predictions.

[DenaoStyle]

I don't understand the hype MSU is receiving.

Preseason prognostications are based primarily on the previous year's production.  Very little foresight goes into them. 

[Lsudental7]

If going 8-4 in the regular season with a FIRST YEAR head coach is considered underperforming, then where do I sign up? 2 of those losses were on the road to Top 5 programs.

He had 3 first round draft picks on that team.

8-4 was absolutely underachieving.

It was the most talented defense he will ever have there.  Also had a very experienced qb, who under Mullen played well. 

[RME]

He had 3 first round draft picks on that team.

8-4 was absolutely underachieving.

It was the most talented defense he will ever have there.  Also had a very experienced qb, who under Mullen played well.

Well, if there were ever a team that knew about underachieving...

[GuvHog]

I usually base my predictions on how well they did next year.

That is a mistake because some of the SEC teams have lost a lot of starters on both sides of the line of scrimmage and they are not close to being the same team they were last year.

[HogPharmer]

That is a mistake because some of the SEC teams have lost a lot of starters on both sides of the line of scrimmage and they are not close to being the same team they were last year.

Like who?

[Hogwild]

Miss. State received votes in both the coach and AP poll that would put them 28th in both, just ahead of the U.

Here's what a Mississippi newspaper thinks of the Dawgs schedule

Mississippi State won eight games in the first season of the Joe Moorhead era. One year later, Bovada has the Bulldogs' win total projected for that same exact number. Most sports books have State slated at either eight or 8.5 wins.

It won't be easy for Moorhead to match last year's total, but there are reasons to think he just might. He gets to face three of the teams he lost to on the road last year — Kentucky, LSU and Alabama — at Davis Wade Stadium this season.

If the Bulldogs can manage to win two of those games, the most likely combination being Kentucky and LSU, then they'd be in great shape to match or even exceed eight wins. State has a lot of games to get through before battling the Crimson Tide on Nov. 16, though.

After easing into the season with four very winnable games, the middle third of State's season will be the determinant in how the Bulldogs fare overall. If Mississippi State gets through that middle third with a 2-2 record, it's in good shape to reach eight wins.

The final third of the season is full of must-win games against Arkansas, Abilene Christian and Ole Miss. State has to face Arkansas on the road, but it's clear Chad Morris is very much still in re-building mode. The Dawgs' final three games of the year are at home, with Alabama being the toughest one.

[GuvHog]

Like who?

Ole Miss and Kentucky. Both lost a HUGE number of starters off of their last year's teams.

[HogPharmer]

He had 3 first round draft picks on that team.

8-4 was absolutely underachieving.

It was the most talented defense he will ever have there.  Also had a very experienced qb, who under Mullen played well.

In their 4 losses, their worst loss was by 24 points... To Alabama (i.e. one of the greatest college football teams we will ever see in our lives). The most points they gave up in those four losses was 28. It doesn't matter how talented your defense is if your offense doesn't score points.

Also, that "very experienced qb" (who was indeed good while playing for the best QB coach in the SEC) came back from just getting his leg snapped in half in the Egg Bowl in 2017. He also was never that great of a QB, IMO. He was a mediocre passer at best (completing less than 52% of his passes last season and never completing more than 56% in his 3 seasons as a starter at MSU) that wasn't afraid to tuck the ball and run. Mullen knew how to use him because he is Dan Mullen. Heck, Mullen made Feleipe Franks a serviceable QB last year and he sucks.

[HogPharmer]

Ole Miss and Kentucky. Both lost a HUGE number of starters off of their last year's teams.

Oh, I didn't realize they both lost that many... Thanks.

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

In their 4 losses, their worst loss was by 24 points... To Alabama (i.e. one of the greatest college football teams we will ever see in our lives). The most points they gave up in those four losses was 28. It doesn't matter how talented your defense is if your offense doesn't score points.

Also, that "very experienced qb" (who was indeed good while playing for the best QB coach in the SEC) came back from just getting his leg snapped in half in the Egg Bowl in 2017. He also was never that great of a QB, IMO. He was a mediocre passer at best (completing less than 52% of his passes last season and never completing more than 56% in his 3 seasons as a starter at MSU) that wasn't afraid to tuck the ball and run. Mullen knew how to use him because he is Dan Mullen. Heck, Mullen made Feleipe Franks a serviceable QB last year and he sucks.

Yep, a lot of times teams take a step back with a coaching change even if the coach is good and the team is talented.  Why?  Because it's a new coach. They didn't fall off a cliff and Mullen may have gone 9-3 with them so 8-4 is no huge under achieving feat.  Moorhead was not just new he was new to the SEC as well.  A lot of coaches take over good established programs and totally tank.  Besides coming back from a horrific injury I think Fitz also got into a little trouble over the summer and was suspended for the first game.

[woodhog14]

Neither do I. Someone must know something I don't. All I know is they lost the 2 most important positions on the field—quarterback and their entire defensive line—since last year.

The writer of this article seems pretty confident in Miss State's sister-wife Ole Miss too.

The one thing people need to look out for about State is that their passing game will improve. They have a transfer from Penn State that is going to be a good QB. He's a better passer than Fitzgerald. I think that's why they still get some love. Plus they have two stud RB's back from last year.