Apologies for Overrating Stanford ... Not

[jbcarol]

  :razorback:

[jbcarol]

Upon further review Tennessee is a lock.  Opening round loss did not help seed.

[jbcarol]

With Ole Miss loss, Hawgs are now the class of the SEC West (rings optional, forget 1 game difference in regular season).  Rule of Selecton Committee:  Thou shall not have Madness (Registered TM of CBS) without a team from the SEC West !!!

[jbcarol]

The bubble teams have proved to be mortal in the semi-finals!

That's why the Hawgs are in the "Lock Box" baby!!!

[jbcarol]

Despite a great run it is too late for NC State to be hopping on the bubble.  The ACC has their share.  However, win the tournament and ...

[jbcarol]

The bubble teams have proved to be mortal in the semi-finals!

That's why the Hawgs are in the "Lock Box" baby!!!

And Oklahoma State just joined the mortality club.  Hangin' on the bubble by a thread, Cowboys.

[jbcarol]

Post from very early yesterday morning that is looking real good to me right now.

RPI is a great indicator but watch this.  Take the instant RPI at 5:00 PM EST on Sunday.  Watch the injustices. at 6:00 PM.

Quality Road Wins!  The factor that emerged, and worked, and for one of the first times made The Committee look like geniuses, and allowed them to say to Packer, CBS, et al., in your face, was quality road wins.

If you can win a big game or more on the road, it shows you have what it takes to be better than one-and-done in the Tourney.  That's how the GW's and the MVC schools and other majors helped the Committee have credibility.  You are going to stick with a winning formula.

Check out the first post in this thread to see the quality road win barometer for teams competing for a slot.  While you bemoan the Hawgs road record, note this.  Almost none of these teams are winning on the true road, and for many their best road win is a joke.  I have eliminated many of the teams with no real road cred as of now.

Last word on RPI.  After watching KY take #1 or top 3 in RPI year after year and not get a #1 seed or not get the #1 overall, I started wondering about the RPI's significance.  In 2003, KY wins 26 straight, goes 19-0 in the SEC counting the tournament championship and does not get #1 overall seed.

Then in 2004 the RPI comes in at about 10 and voila, KY gets the #1 overall seed.

As the RPI is one of many factors they consider.  Good road wins are gold, and they supercede bad home losses.

[jbcarol]

I still think USC is in, but with a blowout, let me flipflop again and put you back on the bubble.  (Sorry D-Will).

Besides, I like multiples of 4.

[jbcarol]

"The Lock Box"   

28 "Locks" (Seeds 1-7 in theory.  Could even be a 12 seed but still a "lock") 

1. Ohio State Buckeyes 
2. Kansas Jayhawks 
3. U-C-L-A Bruins
4. Wisconsin Badgers
5. Memphis Tigers
6. Florida Gators
7. Texas A&M Aggies
8. North Carolina Tar Heels
9. Georgetown Hoyas
10. Nevada Wolf Pack
11. Pittsburgh Panthers
12. Washington State Cougars
13. Southern Illinois Salukis
14. Texas Longhorns
15. Louisville Cardinals
16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
17. Butler Bulldogs
18. Oregon Ducks
19. Marquette Golden Eagles
20. Maryland Terrapins
21. Duke Blue Devils
22. Winthrop Eagles
23. B-Y-U Cougars
24. Virginia Cavaliers
25. U-N-L-V Rebels
26. Virginia Tech Hokies
27. Arkansas Razorbacks   
28. Tennessee Volunteers

[jbcarol]

George Washington does their part to help by winning the A-10.  Not a lock on my list, they would have been a sentimental favorite of the returning members of the Committee by making them look like geniuses last year.  Now they only have to decide their seed.

[jbcarol]

The updated Bubble Chart remains the first message on this thread.  No one on that list can do anything to put themselves in the Lock Box.  The Lock Box is closed for the evening and Hawgs are in it.  I may add to the Bubble list if I missed someone with merit. 

I will bring forward the automatic qualifiers who are "bottom seeders" after the minor conf. tourneys shake out this evening.  For now I will update those real time on Page 1 of this thread.

[jbcarol]

A 3-pointer with one second left gives Miami, OH (remember Wally) the win over Akron (26-7) in the MAC final.  Akron rates a bubble spot based on road record and overall wins. 

[jbcarol]

22 with Automatic Bids who were not Locks on their own merit apart from winning their conference title:
(Most of these teams are vying for those 11-16 seeds plus play-in game)

Albany
Belmont
George Washington
Weber St.
Long Beach State
VCU
Wright State
Penn
Niagara
Miami of Ohio
Florida A&M
Oral Roberts
Creighton
C. Conn. St.
Eastern Kentucky
Holy Cross
Davidson
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
No. Texas
Jackson State
New Mexico St.
Gonzaga

These are in no particular order.  For explanation, Conference champs Georgetown, Memphis, Winthrop, UNLV, Oregon and more though automatic qualifiers are not included because they were Locks.  We could use more Winthops to help the Hawgs and the SEC.  Gonzaga was not a lock but may do better than say a 12-seed.  But again a Gonzaga or a George Washington helps the Hawgs by going ahead and winning their conference even if they individually should not have been picked over Hawgs.  That way some tagalong conference partner does not win the tourney and steal an extra bid.

[jbcarol]

With time change tonite and a loss of an hour of sleep, I will update the winners of the "Bottom Seeders" list tomorrow. 

[jbcarol]

Did y'all see our boy on the Deuce tonite.  He's on fire

[Hogzilla]

Missouri State - 66  Univ. Wisc. 64 on 11/24/06.  Neutral or not. still goes a a W

[jbcarol]

Missouri State - 66  Univ. Wisc. 64 on 11/24/06.  Neutral or not. still goes a a W

The school from Springfield, MO is still on my bubble. 

Got you covered.  Noteworthy win even if early on.

[jbcarol]

Dropped Long Beach State from their temporary spot on the bubble after watching their first half against California Polytechnical Institute.  If they can make up a five-point deficit, they can earn their bid.

[jbcarol]

OK.  Last game of the nite is in the books.  Long Beach State did their part.  Onto the Bottom Seeders they go. 

[jbcarol]

Last word of encouragement.  During the season Florida was clearly the superior team in the SEC, reigning National Champion and they have a good run in the SEC Tournament.  The second place team overall in the SEC was -- emphasis on was -- Vanderbilt.  There was not a big spread between Vandy and say Auburn in the 2 through 10 spots.  With the virtual lock in those nine spots, Arkansas stepped up and beat Vandy soundly in their difficult on-campus arena (Memorial Gym) and then took 3 straight in the tourney including an assertion of passing Vandy for the #2 spot in the SEC and a win over Miss. St. in case there was any doubt about the superior team in the SEC West.

Tennessee might be gifted as the second team in the SEC but based on no end of season merit.  You have to think the SEC will get at least 3 bids.  If the Razorbacks are not one of them, they were misled on what is most important and can have regret for some earlier losses that would have pushed them over with more certainty. 

[jbcarol]

Stanford, Air Force, Appalachain St. (a nice little place nestled in the Boone, NC) were not included in my most "generous" bubble.  Stanford did not road wins on any significance, went out early in the tourney, and did not win 20 games.  They are way down the list of a conference (Pac-10) that is already overloaded with teams in consideration.   Air Force was regarded high earlier, but did not finish strong and did not show the road wins.  Appalachain St. could not overcome the lack of quality competition.

[jbcarol]

The Committee will have their work cut out for them this year.  Hawgs hope is they hold to formula and remember who finished strong and who won big on the tough road late.  The better formula is to hang an "L" on Florida. 

Looks like there are 22 teams that are very stong and have no surprise, especially those that are also Conference Champs.  There are 22 teams that were given the gift of their Conference Title to be allowed to have a bottom seed and be in this tournament.

That leaves 21 (considering the play-in game).  Of remaining teams, 6 more I gave the label of "locks" due to the criteria they demonstrated matching what last year's successful Committee showed they wanted in a team.  22 more teams were given bubble consideration.  These teams are not equal in qualification of course.  Then there are at least 3 more media darlings whose names keep coming up.  As if they are being set up for disappointment or lobbied into a 12-seed.

A majority of this Top 22 are serious contenders for the National Title.
A few teams in the Bottom 22 will give many the thrill of an upset and maybe a Cinderella story.
There are 21 spots in the middle to fill.  Not serious national title contenders but all feeling they deserve the shot over their peers.  28 teams (31 if you count the media darlings) all looking for one of those precious 21 spots in the middle.

In a plush hotel room in Indianapolis on an otherwise cold day, the temperature will be feeling very warm.

[jbcarol]

An Arkansas victory over Florida today will make the Hawgs one of a handful of teams to ever win a Conferernce Tournament by playing the full 4 days (joining of course the 2000 Hawg Team).  KY came oh so close in the first year the SEC-T was brought back in 1979.  In that year alone, the top two teams were given the ridiculous advantage of only having to play two games to win it all.  It was one of the years (coming off a National Title) that KY was not one of the top 2 teams.  They lost a heart breaker to Tennessee in OT with Kevin Nash (who went on to become an entertainer of sorts).

Hawgs have chance to make some more history today.

[jbcarol]

Big Conference Counts of Locks and Bubbles:

Big East:  5 Locks and 2 Bubbles
Big 12:    3 Locks and 3 Bubbles
ACC:       5 Locks and 2 Bubbles (Billy Packer must have slipped me a "Mickey")
Big 10:    2 Locks and 4 Bubbles
Pac 10:   4 Locks and 1 "thin ice" Bubble
SEC:       3 Locks and 4 Bubbles (I am being firm but fair)

The rest.  Display your NCAA Tournament Banner in the post-1970 era and then we'll talk

The Big East and ACC have enough.  Stanford is not on my list for the Pac 10 (I held my nose and one finger typed Arizona).  My 3 SEC locks:  Florida, Arkansas, and Tennessee.   I think Kentucky will get in due to the $ factor but the NCAA should not overrate that this year.  Big 10 bubbles lacked solid road wins outside their conference or quality road wins inside their conference.  They beat up on Penn St. (Mich. St.'s only road win all year long).

Does the Big East and ACC need 7 teams?  Were they really that good.  Not based on road record.  Georgia Tech from ACC and at least one of the Big East's Villanova or Syracuse do not belong at a minimum.  Arkansas showed more success at the end and could get that road win and perservere in the Conference Tourney.

[jbcarol]

Hawgs learned the NCAA equivalent Catch-22.  Here is the NCAA version of Catch-22.  Arkansas to earn a bid in the NCAA tournament you must go on the road and beat Top-20 Vanderbilt.  Remember they have a tremendous home court advantage so we require this of you.  Hawgs to qualify for the NCAA tournament you must now win the rematch against this Vanderbilt team in the Conference Tournament.  They will get a day of rest, you must come off of a 20 hour rest after game one.

Well done Arkansas.  You accomplished the requirements and beat Mississippi State as you had to.  Oh bad news.  Vanderbilt lost their last home game, Senior Day, no less and they lost in the first round of the SEC Tournament, despite getting a bye.  We no longer hold Vanderbilt in sufficient regard to count them as high quality wins for you at the end of the season.  Sorry that precludes your inclusion.

Of course we will take Vanderbilt's earlier season successes into full account and award them the last SEC spot given this year.

A scenario that could play out.  Not pretty.

[jbcarol]

On the flip side.  Two considerations:

1) Thou shalt not have a March Madness (a registered TM of CBS) without a representative from the SEC West.  If it is not Arkansas, who is it.

2) It is getting later on Sunday afternoon.  The low seeds are fixed and taken care of.  There are a handful of higher profile conference tournament championships to determine for the sake of the higher seeds and those contingencies have been figured or will just be ignored.

Somewhere in the mix is the question, what do we do with Arkansas? 
And I hope in an entirely different category, what do we do with NC State?

For NC State I hope it is just like Sotth Carolina last year.  If you win you take the last at-large berth away from someone. If you lose NIT.

For Arkansas, I hope they see it differently and they have a spot picked out around Seed 10 where they will safely land, win or lose.  Otherwise we are in the same boat as NC State when the only thing we truly have in common is a nice tournament run.  Arkansas' road victories were superior.

[jbcarol]

Got the morning meetings to attend be back on board around tip-off time.

Will copy the Bubble post and the "Lock Box" post at the end of the thread for those who start at the end and work back.

[jbcarol]

Updated following March 10 action and most Conference Tournament games decided:  (March 12, 2:45 EDT)

After the bids are announced each year ILMFHO looking at the "best road win" of some of the selections (usually Cha/umps of Weak Conferences).  Last year the Committee showed that quality road wins showed your team had something and bad home losses were minimized.  I have picked 28 "locks" (including Arkansas!).  The "locks" do not include winners of conferences that would not have gotten in as an at-large on their own merit.  There will be 22 of these "bottom seeders".  That leaves 15 teams (accounting for the play-in game) out of the now 22 bubble teams I chose which are still eligible.  Of these bubble teams I chose what is arguably their best road win.  For two teams, Miss. St. and Mich. St. that was not hard since they won only one road game.  I include National Ranking of the losing home team using now the current ranking:

Bubble Team   Best Road Win   Comment if any
------------   --------------   --------------
Texas Tech     7 Texas A&M    Road win over your boy Billy G.  Won away at Kansas St., and Iowa St.
Old Dominion    9 Georgetown   Got Hoyas at a good time.  Also got Drexel (see below) and George Mason.
Kansas St.      14 Texas          Big Tournament win over Texas Tech.  10-6 in Big 12.
Kentucky        15 Louisville      Got Hawgs at BWA.  Second straight year to play first day in SEC-T.
So. California   18 Oregon        Also road win over Arizona.  Finals of Pac-10-T but "hit the wall"
Arizona          18 Oregon         Oregon got 'em back in Pac 10 Tourney
Arkansas        Vanderbilt         Also beat 'Bama on the road.  Great run in SEC Tourney.  Thomas injury and ran out of gas
Vanderbilt       Kentucky          SEC East #2 and Hawgs slammed shut the Commodores at the end.
Drexel            Villanova          Good road wins: Vermont, St. Joe's, Syracuse, Temple, Creighton (13-4 on the road!)
Okla. St.        Syracuse          6-10 in Reg. Conference.  Big tourney win over Texas A&M.  Semi-finals of Big 12-T
Villanova        U Conn             Would have looked better last year (skin of teeth right now)
Indiana           U Conn            Ditto. Also, no big Big 10 road win
Illinois            Missouri           Took Mike Anderson at home.  No big Big 10 road win.  Big 10-T Semis
Xavier            Dayton            Good road win but lost in A-10 Tourney. 
Missouri St.     Bradley            Best road win is over an MVC team unlike last year.  Early neutral win over Wisconsin.
Syracuse        Providence       Could not get a better Big East win, first round loser
Mississippi       South Alabama  Almost no road wins, not even U. Conn.  Made a statement v. LSU in SEC-T.
Miss. St.         Miami (Fla.)      Only road win of the year but Miami beat Maryland in ACC-T.  Held serve v. KY in SEC-T
Purdue           Oklahoma         Advancing in Big 10 Tourney, 9-7 in Big 10. No "big" Big 10 road win
Akron             Oral Roberts     11-5 Road Record.  26-7 (15-4 in MAC).  Lost to UALR.
Georgia Tech   Florida St.        Maui win over Memphis.  Not a lot of good road wins.  Tough conf.
Michigan St.    Penn St.          Only road win (1-8) but can you have "madness" without Lupe' ?

They can only wait and hope the bubble does not burst. 

With sadness the Razorbacks move back to bubble following Thomas injury.  Not in good shape due to SEC-T finish.

[jbcarol]

"The Lock Box"   

28 "Locks" (Seeds 1-7 in theory.  Could even be a 12 seed but still a "lock") 

1. Ohio State Buckeyes 
2. Kansas Jayhawks 
3. U-C-L-A Bruins
4. Wisconsin Badgers
5. Memphis Tigers
6. Florida Gators
7. Texas A&M Aggies
8. North Carolina Tar Heels
9. Georgetown Hoyas
10. Nevada Wolf Pack
11. Pittsburgh Panthers
12. Washington State Cougars
13. Southern Illinois Salukis
14. Texas Longhorns
15. Louisville Cardinals
16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
17. Butler Bulldogs
18. Oregon Ducks
19. Marquette Golden Eagles
20. Maryland Terrapins
21. Duke Blue Devils
22. Winthrop Eagles
23. B-Y-U Cougars
24. Virginia Cavaliers
25. U-N-L-V Rebels
26. Virginia Tech Hokies
27. Boston College Golden Eagles  
28. Tennessee Volunteers

Charles Thomas injury makes match up problems too deep to overcome.  With sadness the lock moves to the bubble.

[jbcarol]

The analysts on TV are so dour and apprehensive.  This is not a funeral without hope!  This is the kick-off of a 3-week party!

Is this the new strategy for ratings or are they just not sure of themselves?  Or both

[jbcarol]

Just before Katz bold prediction reported in a thread by TableRocker, Joe Lunardi for the first tmie opened the door a little, that if Arkansas kept it close they just might get that bid.

I would prefer they cut down the nets!  Let's let the games begin!

[jbcarol]

Just for accuracy, it is Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery doing a game.  Not Brando, not Enberg.

Forget "serviceable passing game".  We need rebounding help.

[jbcarol]

I'm will watch and record any change.  As of now Lunardi the at-large last in is:

12 Drexel

The next tier at-large 11 seeds are:

Kansas State and Texas Tech (The Bob Knight/Huggins love factor from the Big 12)
Purdue (Big 10) and Stanford (Pac-10, I don't see it)  I guess these picks were "academic".

There is a love affair with Stanford that I do not get.

[jbcarol]

Lunardi's at-large 10 seeds:  Syracuse (no excuse) and Indiana (beat U Conn and no other good Big 10 Team on the road).  Let's also reward the coach head of the ethics committee who violated those rules.

[jbcarol]

Lunardi's 9 seeds at large defy logic except for one:

Michigan State only played 9 road games all year.  Went 1-8 (beat Penn State .  You are rewarding bad behavior if you reward them.

Arizona and Georgia Tech are marginal 6th or 7th teams in their conference.

I can agree with Kentucky as a pick.  Their fans may have spent their $ on their rare football bowl game victory this year but they will spend some money, even if you send them out West.

[jbcarol]

Lunardi's at large 8 seeds are: Vandy (we know how Hawgs stand head2head with them),

Xavier who should have won their tourney.  Always playing a marginal schedule and lost their City Championship to a weak Cincinnati team.

Villanova is a weak representative 5th or 6th team out of Big East.  No good road wins.

Southern Cal. looked good and just ran out of steam in the Pac-10 final.  On par with Arkansas.

[jbcarol]

Based on these picks Arkansas should have been a 7 or 8 seed regardless of what happens today based on Lunardi's schema.

[jbcarol]

Lunardi's 7 seeds all deserving, Duke, Butler, Virginia were all in the "Lock Box".  Boston College a 5th team out of ACC was on par with Arkansas or below because they did not make the final.  I put Arkansas in BC's spot.  They should have been a 7-seed as noted in my "Lock Box".

Except for one nagging detail that just came up and I cannot get good info about ...

[jbcarol]

Davis, Kelllogg and Gumble chucking and winking a little bit too much about not knowing who the #1 seed is.  Great guys, just great    

[jbcarol]

Not only could CBS apparently not afford Tim Brando and we get Verne but they also could not afford a sideline reporter.

We don't need a blond as much as we need Dr. Jerry.

What is the condition of Charles Thomas?  Remember 18 pts. and 18 rebounds yesterday.

Oh, that's right.  You did not do the earlier games.  Just flew in last nite.  No time for game prep.

Verne says, I was here on Dec. 2, same teams, same place, same stakes.  Find out the condition of an absolute key player and quit crying about Horford who walked off under his own power.

Still crying at I type ...

[jbcarol]

Thomas out for the game, x-rays negative is bad for now and worse for a bigger reason ....

[jbcarol]

Hawgs have to suck it up and not lay down here.  They have a new obstacle to overcome that they could not have planned for.

[Pigonometry]

Hawgs have to suck it up and not lay down here.  They have a new obstacle to overcome that they could not have planned for.

Tell us what that is...............

[jbcarol]

With an injury to a key player the Committee now has an out.  "We do not know his condition, he is obviously critical to your tournament chances based on your performance today.  Sorry, all bets are off."  Next. 

Shame.

In the 1990's Cincinnati was looking at a #1 seed when Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the Conference Tourney final.  Their status moved to a bubble team.

[Pigonometry]

With an injury to a key player the Committee now has an out.  "We do not know his condition, he is obviously critical to your tournament chances based on your performance today.  Sorry, all bets are off."  Next. 

Shame.

In the 1990's Cincinnati was looking at a #1 seed when Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the Conference Tourney final.  Their status moved to a bubble team.

Yeah, but he was their stud player.  Thomas is good but we are deep at his position..........

[jbcarol]

With an injury to a key player the Committee now has an out.  "We do not know his condition, he is obviously critical to your tournament chances based on your performance today.  Sorry, all bets are off."  Next. 

Shame.

In the 1990's Cincinnati was looking at a #1 seed when Kenyon Martin broke his leg in the Conference Tourney final.  Their status moved to a bubble team.

Yeah, but he was their stud player.  Thomas is good but we are deep at his position..........

Exactly and the studs did not step up today and box out, finish, or play interior defense.  The blow out takes the Hawgs out with sadness.  Happens to often to the team playing the fourth day in less than 70 hours but the injury just -- just is unjust.

[jbcarol]

A Technical on Stan Heath?!  Same kind of judgment we will see in 3 hours I fear.

[jbcarol]

With regret, I updated my lists to reflect the Thomas injury and blow out loss.

[jbcarol]

Need to check out 'til about 6 PM EDT.  The performance review is held the day after Selection Sunday

[jbcarol]

Glad to see the Committee still values some quality road wins
See who got left out and compare on the Bubble List.

USC got blown out by running out of gas just like Hawgs did. 
I saw their semi-final.  They looked impressive.