Apologies for Overrating Stanford ... Not

[jbcarol]

The Lock Box"   

Here are the actual seeds assigned to the Schools in the final saved "Lock Box"
All "Locks" made it in.  You can see why I had to move Hawgs late to the "Bubble".

28 "Locks" (Seeds 1-7 in theory.  Could even be a 12 seed but still a "lock") 

1. Ohio State Buckeyes           (1)
2. Kansas Jayhawks                (1)
3. U-C-L-A Bruins                   (2)
4. Wisconsin Badgers              (2)
5. Memphis Tigers                   (2)
6. Florida Gators                     (1)
7. Texas A&M Aggies               (3)
8. North Carolina Tar Heels       (1)
9. Georgetown Hoyas              (2)
10. Nevada Wolf Pack              (7)
11. Pittsburgh Panthers            (3)
12. Washington State Cougars   (3)
13. Southern Illinois Salukis       (4)
14. Texas Longhorns                (4)
15. Louisville Cardinals              (6)
16. Notre Dame Fighting Irish     (6)
17. Butler Bulldogs                   (5)
18. Oregon Ducks                    (3)
19. Marquette Golden Eagles      (eight)
20. Maryland Terrapins             (4)
21. Duke Blue Devils                 (6)
22. Winthrop Eagles                 (11)
23. B-Y-U Cougars                  (eight)
24. Virginia Cavaliers                (4)
25. U-N-L-V Rebels                  (7)
26. Virginia Tech Hokies            (5)
27. Boston College Golden Eagles (7)
28. Tennessee Volunteers         (5)

Charles Thomas injury makes match up problems too deep to overcome.  With sadness the lock moves to the bubble.

[jbcarol]

Now let's see which bubble teams noted at the last edit got a bid and what seed


Updated following March 10 action and most Conference Tournament games decided:  (March 12, 2:45 EDT)

After the bids are announced each year ILMFHO looking at the "best road win" of some of the selections (usually Cha/umps of Weak Conferences).  Last year the Committee showed that quality road wins showed your team had something and bad home losses were minimized.  I have picked 28 "locks" (including Arkansas!).  The "locks" do not include winners of conferences that would not have gotten in as an at-large on their own merit.  There will be 22 of these "bottom seeders".  That leaves 15 teams (accounting for the play-in game) out of the now 22 bubble teams I chose which are still eligible.  Of these bubble teams I chose what is arguably their best road win.  For two teams, Miss. St. and Mich. St. that was not hard since they won only one road game.  I include National Ranking of the losing home team using now the current ranking:

Seed Bubble Team   Best Road Win   Comment if any
----- ------------   --------------   --------------
  10  Texas Tech     7 Texas A&M    Road win over your boy Billy G.  Won away at Kansas St., ...
  12  Old Dominion    9 Georgetown   Got Hoyas at a good time.  Also got Drexel (see below) and ...
   --  Kansas St.      14 Texas          Big Tournament win over Texas Tech.  10-6 in Big 12.
   8   Kentucky        15 Louisville      Got Hawgs at BWA.  Second straight year to play first day ...
   5   So. California   18 Oregon        Also road win over Arizona.  Finals of Pac-10-T but "hit the wall"
   8   Arizona          18 Oregon         Oregon got 'em back in Pac 10 Tourney
  12  Arkansas        Vanderbilt         Also beat 'Bama on the road.  Great run in SEC Tourney.  ...
   6   Vanderbilt       Kentucky          SEC East #2 and Hawgs slammed shut the Commodores ...
  --   Drexel            Villanova          Good road wins: Vermont, St. Joe's, Syracuse, Temple, (13-4)
  --   Okla. St.        Syracuse          6-10 in Reg. Conference.  Big tourney win over Texas A&M. ...
   9   Villanova        U Conn             Would have looked better last year (skin of teeth right now)
   7   Indiana           U Conn            Ditto. Also, no big Big 10 road win
  12  Illinois            Missouri           Took Mike Anderson at home.  No big Big 10 road win.  ...
   9   Xavier            Dayton            Good road win but lost in A-10 Tourney. 
  --   Missouri St.     Bradley           Best road win is over an MVC. ... Early neutral win over Wisc.
  --   Syracuse        Providence       Could not get a better Big East win, first round loser
  --   Mississippi       South Alabama  Almost no road wins, not even U. Conn.  ...
  --   Miss. St.         Miami (Fla.)      Only road win of the year but Miami beat Maryland in ACC-T... 
   9   Purdue           Oklahoma         Advancing in Big 10 Tourney, 9-7 in Big 10.  ...     
  --   Akron             Oral Roberts     11-5 Road Record.  26-7 (15-4 in MAC).  Lost to UALR.
  10  Georgia Tech   Florida St.        Maui win over Memphis.  Not a lot of good road wins.  ...
   9   Michigan St.    Penn St.          Only road win (1-8) but can you have "madness" without Lupe' ?

I missed #11 Stanford (On purpose ?

Inferference is that Kansas St. or Drexel should have been in Stanford's place.

[jbcarol]

Lunardi's Last Four In:  Purdue, Stanford, Drexel, Kansas St.
Actual Last Three In:  ODU, Illinois, Hawgs

Lunardi's Last Four Out:  ODU, Illinois, Fla. State, Air Force
Lunardi's Next Four Out:  Arkansas, Akron, Appalachain St., Okla. State

[jbcarol]

Next up.  A relook at posts from the last 72 hours in light of what actually happened.

[jbcarol]

I'm will watch and record any change.  As of now Lunardi the at-large last in is:

12 Drexel

The next tier at-large 11 seeds are:

Kansas State and Texas Tech (The Bob Knight/Huggins love factor from the Big 12)
Purdue (Big 10) and Stanford (Pac-10, I don't see it)  I guess these picks were "academic".

There is a love affair with Stanford that I do not get.

I liked this one from just before tip off.

[jbcarol]

On the flip side.  Two considerations:

1) Thou shalt not have a March Madness (a registered TM of CBS) without a representative from the SEC West.  If it is not Arkansas, who is it.

2) It is getting later on Sunday afternoon.  The low seeds are fixed and taken care of.  There are a handful of higher profile conference tournament championships to determine for the sake of the higher seeds and those contingencies have been figured or will just be ignored.

Somewhere in the mix is the question, what do we do with Arkansas? 
And I hope in an entirely different category, what do we do with NC State?

For NC State I hope it is just like South Carolina last year.  If you win you take the last at-large berth away from someone. If you lose NIT.

For Arkansas, I hope they see it differently and they have a spot picked out around Seed 10 where they will safely land, win or lose.  Otherwise we are in the same boat as NC State when the only thing we truly have in common is a nice tournament run.  Arkansas' road victories were superior.

From early this AM over some coffee

[jbcarol]

Hawgs learned the NCAA equivalent Catch-22.  Here is the NCAA version of Catch-22.  Arkansas to earn a bid in the NCAA tournament you must go on the road and beat Top-20 Vanderbilt.  Remember they have a tremendous home court advantage so we require this of you.  Hawgs to qualify for the NCAA tournament you must now win the rematch against this Vanderbilt team in the Conference Tournament.  They will get a day of rest, you must come off of a 20 hour rest after game one.

Well done Arkansas.  You accomplished the requirements and beat Mississippi State as you had to.  Oh bad news.  Vanderbilt lost their last home game, Senior Day, no less and they lost in the first round of the SEC Tournament, despite getting a bye.  We no longer hold Vanderbilt in sufficient regard to count them as high quality wins for you at the end of the season.  Sorry that precludes your inclusion.

Of course we will take Vanderbilt's earlier season successes into full account and award them the last SEC spot given this year.

A scenario that could play out.  Not pretty.

This really played out.  The good news was that the combination of the last post and this came through.  Best of both!

[jbcarol]

Stanford, Air Force, Appalachain St. (a nice little place nestled in the Boone, NC) were not included in my most "generous" bubble.  Stanford did not road wins on any significance, went out early in the tourney, and did not win 20 games.  They are way down the list of a conference (Pac-10) that is already overloaded with teams in consideration.   Air Force was regarded high earlier, but did not finish strong and did not show the road wins.  Appalachain St. could not overcome the lack of quality competition.

Could I have not shown more distain for the choice of Stanford?  I had noted earlier that Air Force beat Stanford in Palo Alto.  Said "the big tree got buzzed" by the Air Force.

[jbcarol]

Last word of encouragement.  During the season Florida was clearly the superior team in the SEC, reigning National Champion and they have a good run in the SEC Tournament.  The second place team overall in the SEC was -- emphasis on was -- Vanderbilt.  There was not a big spread between Vandy and say Auburn in the 2 through 10 spots.  With the virtual lock in those nine spots, Arkansas stepped up and beat Vandy soundly in their difficult on-campus arena (Memorial Gym) and then took 3 straight in the tourney including an assertion of passing Vandy for the #2 spot in the SEC and a win over Miss. St. in case there was any doubt about the superior team in the SEC West.

Tennessee might be gifted as the second team in the SEC but based on no end of season merit.  You have to think the SEC will get at least 3 bids.  If the Razorbacks are not one of them, they were misled on what is most important and can have regret for some earlier losses that would have pushed them over with more certainty. 

Making a stump speech.  Did not even give Kentucky any props here, with whom I had by now become ambivalent

[jbcarol]

I still think USC is in, but with a blowout, let me flipflop again and put you back on the bubble.  (Sorry D-Will).

Besides, I like multiples of 4.

Hello.  Looks like we meet again.

[jbcarol]

Greensboro is just far enough away from the "Triangle" to have them covered.  Charlotte of course has the arena and hotel space.  Watch that happen nearly every year.

This year Winston-Salem hosts the tourney.  Just far enough away that, oh, North Carolina could be playing their first two rounds there.

"From the Trash Can of last nite".  Discussion of why hosting a Tournament round in Fayetteville is not only not possible (has to be off campus) and not practical (Hawgs could not be in it).  I predicted where No. Carolina would open play and nailed it.  This wasn't that hard.  They do this every year (Tar Heels or Blue Devils).

[jbcarol]

The bubble teams have proved to be mortal in the semi-finals!

That's why the Hawgs are in the "Lock Box" baby!!!

Well had to take the Hawgs out of the "Lock Box" in the 11th hour but the other Bubble teams did their job and made three more spaces.  Hawgs took one of them.

[jbcarol]

I watched USC take apart Wash. St. last nite in Pac-10-T.  Put them back in the lock box.  Good bye Rocky Top.  Only one SEC team left as a "lock" on my list which is ... well you know who it is.  You can't leave the SEC with one bid... I don't think.  It is wide open for the Hawgs.  Need to TCB today, 3rd game in less than 48 hours.  At least KY took Dawgs to OT but it's only the Dawgs second game. 

Appreciate the emotion Hawgs, but leave some for the Finals.  Or as Pitino would say, The NCAA Finals.  "No net will be cut down before its time "

Moved Tennessee back in didn't I ?  I guess the Committee felt good about both of these teams.  USC is supposed to get O.J. Mayo next year.

[jbcarol]

With Ole Miss loss, Hawgs are now the class of the SEC West (rings optional, forget 1 game difference in regular season).  Rule of Selecton Committee:  Thou shall not have Madness (Registered TM of CBS) without a team from the SEC West !!!

Note the time stamp. 

[jbcarol]

Akron (26-6, MAC 15 -3) has been brought up as a bubble risk is they lose to Miami (O) in Tourney.  They lost to UALR.

Their road wins:  Gardner-Webb, Niagara, Oral Roberts, Binghamton, Youngstown, Bowling Green, No. Illinois, E. Mich., Duquesne, Buffalo, Kent State (w/o Heath).

Lots of quantity (comes with the record and they do travel) but no quality.  Off the bubble.

Hawgs beat Miss. St. and Akron is irrelevant.

Akron got themselves beat on a last second shot by Miami.  Their coach cried and called it a lucky shot.  Hawgs beat Miss. St.  Akron was irrelevant.   Win your tournament when you play in the MAC, etc., etc.  Don't want your tears.

[jbcarol]

FIRE HOUSTON NUTT

Don't worry.  In the midst of much calculation and research we will always keep the main thing the main thing !!! 

+1 - Now that is funny.

More importantly the Bubble Watch is a way to channel our pain and create a temporary diversion from all that went wrong on the Hill this academic year so far.  Mr. jb also suggests drugs (Rx only, of course, for you young folks reading the posts).  As you can tell by some of the assessments, both are in play as he channels his pain.  

Not shavin', your post was just a stark reminder for why we are here.  In a sense you burst our bubble.

Early morning fun on Saturday!  Now that Hawgs are in let's get back to the main thing

[jbcarol]

FIRE HOUSTON NUTT

Don't worry.  In the midst of much calculation and research we will always keep the main thing the main thing !!! 

+1 - Now that is funny.

The bubble watch is a once a year celebration of an NCAA D-1 sport who has a tourney to decide its champion and captures the heart of a nation.  We agonize over the mediocrity of these schools who may feel cheated if they don't get the 12-seed (there is money to be gained, fan support to satisfy).  Imagine the bubble talk if D-1 football had a tourney with 4 or even 8 teams. 

The only negative I can foresee of having a D-1 Football tournament (besides the bowl game diminishment).  All of the crying by the teams that do not get it, no matter how many teams they choose.

[jbcarol]

Not on that list is Baylor who just beat Missouri last night and is killing UT right now.

seriously where the F did baylor come from? i just can't seem them winning that tourney though, they won't get in even if making it to the finals

The difference in this bubble watch is it gives weight to quality road wins which the Committee loved last year.  Believe it or not Baylor did not win a road game all year.  Need to win Big 12-T to dance.

Other Big 12 teams are jumping into the picture.  Okla. State was there, left, and came back.  6-10 Conf. Record not good.

Baylor was getting some support by the board.  Big 12, next stop for Hawgs?

[jbcarol]

jbcarol wasn't that GT win over Memphis on a neutral court? I believe it was in a tournament.

Yep. It was in Hawaii.

Thanks for the fact check folks!  That's why Hogville.net is the best!  My original source was incorrect.  I have no excuse because I watched the Maul Tournament.

Upon review, Georgia Tech has no road win this year.  Their bubble has burst!  Another bites the dust.

The fact check was right.  The record shows I reluctantly put Ga. Tech back on the bubble last night. 

[jbcarol]

Post from very early yesterday morning that is looking real good to me right now.

RPI is a great indicator but watch this.  Take the instant RPI at 5:00 PM EST on Sunday.  Watch the injustices. at 6:00 PM.

Quality Road Wins!  The factor that emerged, and worked, and for one of the first times made The Committee look like geniuses, and allowed them to say to Packer, CBS, et al., in your face, was quality road wins.

If you can win a big game or more on the road, it shows you have what it takes to be better than one-and-done in the Tourney.  That's how the GW's and the MVC schools and other majors helped the Committee have credibility.  You are going to stick with a winning formula.

Check out the first post in this thread to see the quality road win barometer for teams competing for a slot.  While you bemoan the Hawgs road record, note this.  Almost none of these teams are winning on the true road, and for many their best road win is a joke.  I have eliminated many of the teams with no real road cred as of now.

Last word on RPI.  After watching KY take #1 or top 3 in RPI year after year and not get a #1 seed or not get the #1 overall, I started wondering about the RPI's significance.  In 2003, KY wins 26 straight, goes 19-0 in the SEC counting the tournament championship and does not get #1 overall seed.

Then in 2004 the RPI comes in at about 10 and voila, KY gets the #1 overall seed.

As the RPI is one of many factors they consider.  Good road wins are gold, and they supercede bad home losses.

Oh I liked this one!  Anyone done the RPI analysis yet.  I have done Lunardi.  He did a good job in the Seeds 1-10 area but was weak on last 4 in and of course last 8 out (of which Hawgs were on his list).

[jbcarol]

Lunardi's Last Four In:  Purdue, Stanford, Drexel, Kansas St.
Actual Last Three In:  ODU, Illinois, Hawgs

Lunardi's Last Four Out:  ODU, Illinois, Fla. State, Air Force
Lunardi's Next Four Out:  Arkansas, Akron, Appalachain St., Okla. State

My apologies.  Thanks to a thread from What's Shaking Bacon, it looks like Joe Lunardi made a last second change to his Last In/Out.

The one's above were accurate an hour or so before the bracket announcement.

The following were Joes' last picks on the record.  For being so visible he does a good job.

Lunardi's Last Four In:  Purdue, Stanford, Drexel, Arkansas
Lunardi's Last Four Out:  Kansas State, Old Dominion, Illinois, Florida State
Lunardi's Next Four Out:  Akron, Appalachain St., Air Force, Oklahoma State

Keeping it real.

[jbcarol]

Many thanks to the good citizens of Hogville.net as I started my first thread.  (You said don't start threads until you have about 1000 posts).  The fact checks were right on and much appreciated.  There was were no snide comments or derailed discussions.  Some risk to make yourself accountable and put yourself out there.  I also have to attribute Mr. jb for research to help though he was incorrect to take Kentucky and Vandy out of the "Lock Box".  The former was personal the latter was political.  It was hard to show Vandy over Hawgs in seeding even though you know that is how it is going to come out.

[jbcarol]

Big Conference Counts of Locks and Bubbles:

Big East:  5 Locks and 2 Bubbles
Big 12:    3 Locks and 3 Bubbles
ACC:       5 Locks and 2 Bubbles (Billy Packer must have slipped me a "Mickey")
Big 10:    2 Locks and 4 Bubbles
Pac 10:   4 Locks and 1 "thin ice" Bubble
SEC:       3 Locks and 4 Bubbles (I am being firm but fair)

The rest.  Display your NCAA Tournament Banner in the post-1970 era and then we'll talk

The Big East and ACC have enough.  Stanford is not on my list for the Pac 10 (I held my nose and one finger typed Arizona).  My 3 SEC locks:  Florida, Arkansas, and Tennessee.   I think Kentucky will get in due to the $ factor but the NCAA should not overrate that this year.  Big 10 bubbles lacked solid road wins outside their conference or quality road wins inside their conference.  They beat up on Penn St. (Mich. St.'s only road win all year long).

Does the Big East and ACC need 7 teams?  Were they really that good.  Not based on road record.  Georgia Tech from ACC and at least one of the Big East's Villanova or Syracuse do not belong at a minimum.  Arkansas showed more success at the end and could get that road win and perservere in the Conference Tourney.

A quick look at how many the conferences put in vs. their "Locks" and "Bubbles" prediction:

Big East (6):  All locks and one bubble made it.  Syracuse got their bubble burst.
Big 12 (4):  All locks but only one bubble team Texas Tech.
ACC (7):  All locks and bubbles accounted for.  Packer slipped the Committee a "Mickey".
Big 10 (6):  Both locks and all bubbles. 
Pac 10 (6):  All locks the bubble + my protest exclusion, Stanford
SEC (5):  All locks and 2 or 3 bubbles (bubble status to Miss. schools was for Co-West Reg. Season)

[jbcarol]

Stanford, Air Force, Appalachain St. (a nice little place nestled in the Boone, NC) were not included in my most "generous" bubble.  Stanford did not have road wins on any significance, went out early in the tourney, and did not win 20 games.  They are way down the list of a conference (Pac-10) that is already overloaded with teams in consideration.   Air Force was regarded high earlier, but did not finish strong and did not show the road wins.  Appalachain St. could not overcome the lack of quality competition.

Could I have not shown more distain for the choice of Stanford?  I had noted earlier that Air Force beat Stanford in Palo Alto.  Said "the big tree got buzzed" by the Air Force.

My apologies for underrating Stanford

The Committee went against nearly every stated principle in the selection of Stanford.  Except for the unstated.  To properly award a Conference on their perceived achievement, the Conference will get a minimum number of teams.