Apologies for Overrating Stanford ... Not

[jbcarol]

Stanford had a similar defeat earlier this year.  Against Air Force.  Wasted pick.

[TuckFexas]

I thought Georgia beat Auburn?

[jbcarol]

I thought Georgia beat Auburn?

Was that a better road win than to beat Arkansas at BWA ?  Let the debates begin

[TuckFexas]

No, I'm saying you have an "x" by Georgia when they beat Auburn tonight.

[jbcarol]

No, I'm saying you have an "x" by Georgia when they beat Auburn tonight.

No Tuck me then.  Thanks for the typo.  This is getting hairy.  +1 for you.  I redefined road win in the description in case their was confusion.  There was.  With me

[silvertip]

Good stuff, jb.

If UGA's win at BWA is their BEST road win---then that bodes well for the Hawgs.
Because Hawgs have road wins at Vandy & Bama.  Advantage Hawgs.

[TuckFexas]

No, I'm saying you have an "x" by Georgia when they beat Auburn tonight.

No Tuck me then.  Thanks for the typo.  This is getting hairy.  +1 for you.  I redefined road win in the description in case their was confusion.  There was.  With me

No problem, that's what I'm here for.

[jbcarol]

Good stuff, jb.

If UGA's win at BWA is their BEST road win---then that bodes well for the Hawgs.
Because Hawgs have road wins at Vandy & Bama.  Advantage Hawgs.

Thanks Silvertip.  I keep updating as the game results come in. 

[jbcarol]

Updates just in with all scores reporting

[HawgG]

jbcarol wasn't that GT win over Memphis on a neutral court? I believe it was in a tournament.

[dhornjr1]

jbcarol wasn't that GT win over Memphis on a neutral court? I believe it was in a tournament.

Yep. It was in Hawaii.

[jbcarol]

jbcarol wasn't that GT win over Memphis on a neutral court? I believe it was in a tournament.

Yep. It was in Hawaii.

Thanks for the fact check folks!  That's why Hogville.net is the best!  My original source was incorrect.  I have no excuse because I watched the Maul Tournament.

Upon review, Georgia Tech has no road win this year.  Their bubble has burst!  Another bites the dust.

[jbcarol]

Who needs editors and fact checkers anyway?   I am going to run my stuff thru Hogville.net.  You are faster, more competent, a lot less expensive, you don't eat us out of house and home, what's a benefit package to Hogville.net (comradarie?), the only unions are Darkside and Hugger that I can tell.  Your performance review is whether or not you are right and your feedback is instant.  It is the new outsourcing strategy for '07.

[jbcarol]

To roll Ky back on the bubble?  I don't know let me see how the games shake out today.  Right now it's all Hawgs!

[jry04]

I don't know if it was mentioned on here, but Miami lost in OT to BC. They were on the bubble with 20 or 21 wins and a big win over MD yesterday. Losing today helps Arkansas' chances if they can beat Vandy.

[jbcarol]

I don't know if it was mentioned on here, but Miami lost in OT to BC. They were on the bubble with 20 or 21 wins and a big win over MD yesterday. Losing today helps Arkansas' chances if they can beat Vandy.

12-19 regular season required Miami to win tourney to advance.  The loss to BC sealed the deal. 

Miss. State's only road win all year long was at Miami.

[HogFan1973]

Not on that list is Baylor who just beat Missouri last night and is killing UT right now.

[Table Rocker]

Not on that list is Baylor who just beat Missouri last night and is killing UT right now.

seriously where the F did baylor come from? i just can't seem them winning that tourney though, they won't get in even if making it to the finals

[jbcarol]

 :razorback:

[jbcarol]

Not on that list is Baylor who just beat Missouri last night and is killing UT right now.

seriously where the F did baylor come from? i just can't seem them winning that tourney though, they won't get in even if making it to the finals

The difference in this bubble watch is it gives weight to quality road wins which the Committee loved last year.  Believe it or not Baylor did not win a road game all year.  Need to win Big 12-T to dance.

Other Big 12 teams are jumping into the picture.  Okla. State was there, left, and came back.  6-10 Conf. Record not good.

[dj shanon "Notshavin" smeya]

FIRE HOUSTON NUTT

[jbcarol]

FIRE HOUSTON NUTT

Don't worry.  In the midst of much calculation and research we will always keep the main thing the main thing !!! 

[dj shanon "Notshavin" smeya]

FIRE HOUSTON NUTT

Don't worry.  In the midst of much calculation and research we will always keep the main thing the main thing !!! 

I hadn't done it in a while, kind of felt the urge...

[HogFan1973]

FIRE HOUSTON NUTT

Don't worry.  In the midst of much calculation and research we will always keep the main thing the main thing !!! 

+1 - Now that is funny.

[jbcarol]

The bubbles are expanding again.  Check the first post in thread for latest updates.  Got internal pressure to put KY on the bubble.  Vandy going to bubble is no disrespect to Arkansas.  It is acknowledgment that they should not necessarily be above Hawgs on the ladder.

[jbcarol]

N.C. State is hot and beat "lock" Va. Tech and Wake Forest on the road.  But the conference schedule is too weak.  Need to win ACC-T to get in.  Good luck against a fired up N.C. if you can repeat against Va. Tech and N.C. takes care of B.C.  Those cinderellas do not help Hawgs or the SEC as a whole.

[jbcarol]

I watched USC take apart Wash. St. last nite in Pac-10-T.  Put them back in the lock box.  Good bye Rocky Top.  Only one SEC team left as a "lock" on my list which is ... well you know who it is.  You can't leave the SEC with one bid... I don't think.  It is wide open for the Hawgs.  Need to TCB today, 3rd game in less than 48 hours.  At least KY took Dawgs to OT but it's only the Dawgs second game. 

Appreciate the emotion Hawgs, but leave some for the Finals.  Or as Pitino would say, The NCAA Finals.  "No net will be cut down before its time "

[jbcarol]

jbcarol wasn't that GT win over Memphis on a neutral court? I believe it was in a tournament.

Yep. It was in Hawaii.

Are you the HC at WKU or perhaps related?  On the short list of developing coaches to take KY into the 2010's.  Looks like the oughts ('00's) are shot.

[jbcarol]

FIRE HOUSTON NUTT

Don't worry.  In the midst of much calculation and research we will always keep the main thing the main thing !!! 

+1 - Now that is funny.

The bubble watch is a once a year celebration of an NCAA D-1 sport who has a tourney to decide its champion and captures the heart of a nation.  We agonize over the mediocrity of these schools who may feel cheated if they don't get the 12-seed (there is money to be gained, fan support to satisfy).  Imagine the bubble talk if D-1 football had a tourney with 4 or even 8 teams. 

[jbcarol]

FIRE HOUSTON NUTT

Don't worry.  In the midst of much calculation and research we will always keep the main thing the main thing !!! 

+1 - Now that is funny.

More importantly the Bubble Watch is a way to channel our pain and create a temporary diversion from all that went wrong on the Hill this academic year so far.  Mr. jb also suggests drugs (Rx only, of course, for you young folks reading the posts).  As you can tell by some of the assessments, both are in play as he channels his pain.  

Not shavin', your post was just a stark reminder for why we are here.  In a sense you burst our bubble.

[jbcarol]

 :razorback:

[jbcarol]

Big Conference Counts of Locks and Bubbles (double-check, this was quick b/4 morning mtg.):

Big East:  5 Locks and 2 Bubbles
Big 12:    3 Locks and 3 Bubbles
ACC:       5 Locks and 2 Bubbles (Billy Packer must have slipped me a "Mickey")
Big 10:    2 Locks and 4 Bubbles
Pac 10:   4 Locks and 1 "thin ice" Bubble
SEC:       3 Locks and 4 Bubbles (I am being firm but fair)

The rest.  Display your NCAA Tournament Banner in the post-1970 era and then we'll talk

[jbcarol]

Akron (26-6, MAC 15 -3) has been brought up as a bubble risk is they lose to Miami (O) in Tourney.  They lost to UALR.

Their road wins:  Gardner-Webb, Niagara, Oral Roberts, Binghamton, Youngstown, Bowling Green, No. Illinois, E. Mich., Duquesne, Buffalo, Kent State (w/o Heath).

Lots of quantity (comes with the record and they do travel) but no quality.  Off the bubble.

Hawgs beat Miss. St. and Akron is irrelevant.

[jbcarol]

.

[jbcarol]

Getting ready to update the Lock list to include the Razorbacks

[jbcarol]

 :razorback:

[jbcarol]

Like Auerbach's victory cigar let's light it up, Arkansas just moved from "Bubble" to "Lock".  BC better take a "BC powder" as they just moved back to the bubble.

[jbcarol]

New title to the Bubble Watch thread.  Now it's all about seed for the Hawgs regarding these Bubble teams.

[dotnet]

I don't think Tech won at BWA

[Hawgvillain]

Updated after March 9 action and some Conference Tournament games decided:  (March 10, 3:00 PM EST)

After the bids are announced each year ILMFHO looking at the "best road win" of some of the selections (usually Cha/umps of Weak Conferences).  Last year the Committee showed that quality road wins showed your team had something and bad home losses were minimized.  I picked 28 "locks" (including Arkansas!) not counting winners of conferences that would not have gotten in as an at-large on their own merit.  There are 14 of those as of this posting, and being pessimistic expect as many as 10 more.)  That leaves about 13 teams (depending on who wins Conference Tournaments) out of the now 20 bubble teams I chose which are still eligible.  Of these bubble teams I chose what is arguably their best road win.  For one team, Miss. St. that was not hard since they won only one road game.  I include National Ranking of the home team at the time of the road victory for the bubble team (not the current ranking):

Bubble Team   Best Road Win   Comment if any
------------   --------------   --------------
Texas Tech     6 Texas A&M    Road win over your boy Billy G.  Won away at BWA, Kansas St., and Iowa St.
Old Dominion    8 Georgetown   Got Hoyas at a good time.  Also got Drexel (see below) and George Mason.
Arizona          15 Oregon         Oregon got ‘em back in Pac 10 Tourney
Okla. St.         21 Syracuse     Back on bubble.  6-10 in Conference.  Big win over Texas A&M
Kansas St.      23 Texas          Big Tournament win over Texas Tech.  10-6 in Big 12.
Kentucky        Louisville          Move to bubble.  Louisville improved, Big East-T semis.  Got Hawgs at BWA.
Tennessee      Arkansas          First round SEC-T loss not a help.  Got their good road wins (also Georgia) late
Vanderbilt       Kentucky          Hot, East #2 and Hawgs slammed shut the Commodores at the end.
Drexel            Villanova          Good road wins: Vermont, St. Joe's, Syracuse, Temple, Creighton (13-4 on the road!)
Villanova        U Conn            Would have looked better last year (skin of teeth right now)
Indiana           U Conn            Ditto. Also, no big Big 10 road win
Illinois            Missouri           Took Mike Anderson at home.  No big Big 10 road win.  Big 10-T Semis
Xavier            Dayton            Good road win but lost in A-10 Tourney. 
Missouri St.     Bradley             Best win is over an MVC team unlike last year
Syracuse        Providence       Could not get a better Big East win, first round loser
Mississippi       South Alabama  Almost no road wins, not even U. Conn.  Make a statement v. LSU in SEC-T.
Miss. St.         Miami (Fla.)      Only road win of the year but Miami beat Maryland in ACC-T.  Held serve v. KY in SEC-T
Purdue           Oklahoma         Advancing in Big 10 Tourney, 9-7 in Big 10. No "big" Big 10 road win
George Wash.  Richmond         Does the Committee give props to their best friend?  Other mid-major road wins.
Boston College N.C. State       Also beat Fla. St. and U Mass on the road.  Faded in ACC Semis.


  :razorback:  "Why would you be looking for them?  They are no longer here.  They have gone on up to the "Lock Box" Baby

Texas Tech didn't win at BWA.  It was at Alltell in LR - and I think that counts as a neutral floor.

Go Hogs!

[jbcarol]

Unless Mississippi upsets Florida and there is business to settle tomorrow, you can order up some new rings while you are at (Real SEC West Champs).  Of course I would hold off and see if an SEC Tournament Championship doesn't come with it.  Very tough to take Florida playing your 4th game in less than 70 hours and Florida having a #1 seed on the line.  But never give up!  Never give up!

[jbcarol]

Purdue's loss will keep them on the bubble.

[jbcarol]

Vermont finished 25-7, beat Boston College on the road (but in Nov.) and lost one regular season conference game.  Still needed to win the conf. tourney.  Off the bubble.

[LawHoggin]

I agree that Arkansas should be in the NCAA Tournament with their win over Miss. St., but Seth Davis just stated on CBS that it was his opinion that Arkansas would have to win tomorrow to get into the dance.  However, I don't see anyway the committee can keep the Hogs out with their RPI, strength of schedule and the way they are currently playing.

[jbcarol]

Kansas State makes it to Big 12 semis.  But they stay on the bubble.

[jbcarol]

I agree that Arkansas should be in the NCAA Tournament with their win over Miss. St., but Seth Davis just stated on CBS that it was his opinion that Arkansas would have to win tomorrow to get into the dance.  However, I don't see anyway the committee can keep the Hogs out with their RPI, strength of schedule and the way they are currently playing.

We maintain that Arkansas' strong road victories compared to the rest (see first message in the thread) combined with a strong finish and lack of SEC competition makes them a lock with the win over Miss. St. which we stated before the tourney started.  We generally enjoy Seth Davis' comments.  Being primarily employed by SI, he is biased against the SEC.

More importantly, welcome to Hogville as a poster !!!

[jbcarol]

My apologies, you will no longer see in the first message of the thread that Arkansas beat Vandy and 'Bama on the road.  They are no longer sitting "on the bubble". 

[jbcarol]

Thanks for the update on Tech and Alltell.  Will be corrected and counts as half neutral which not the official "road" definition we defined.  The sources are sometimes sloppy.  The Hogvillians are great!

[jbcarol]

This is no joke.  One thing that separates Hogville.net from other college fan boards is the thoroughness and completeness of the reporting of facts.  This is much appreciated.

On Kentucky boards for example they fabricate facts conveniently or mistakenly about Tubby Smith's record and it goes without challenge.  No one mentions 26 straight wins in 2003 or 19-0 in the SEC.  It just does not come up.  (Remember I am currently on record as not a Tubby fan but the facts have to be reported as facts.)

[chiefsfan]

In the eyes of the selection commitee, Neutral Site wins count as road wins

We are 6-1 this year in games at Neutral sites, with the one loss to Texas Tech.   3 wins to win the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, and 3 wins so far in the SEC Tournament in Atlanta

Throw in the other 2 true road wins at Bama and Vandy and we are in good shape...

Other things that are helpful   and are key stats come tourney time when looking at the bubble

RPI  34  top 20 Strengh of Schedule

6-5 vs top 50 RPI, a very good record
12-10 vs Top 100 RPI...  a decent mark

We have wins over NCAA locks  Vandy(twice, both road) and Southern Illinois, as well as a win over tourney Bubble West Virginia.