2016 MLB Draft Thread

[Wisco Pig]

The Red Sox took Groome with the 12th pick.

[Cornfed Pig]

Are we rooting for SEC opponents' signees to get drafted early?  Seems to make it funner.

[Wisco Pig]

Are we rooting for SEC opponents' signees to get drafted early?  Seems to make it funner.

Hudson Sanchez signed with Texas A&M and was drafted by the Padres with the 24th pick.

[Scott7703]

So far, so good for the hogs. Just wonder if the second round is as nice to us as the first has been so far?

[Wisco Pig]

So far, so good for the hogs. Just wonder if the second round is as nice to us as the first has been so far?

Our luck just ran out.  Ben Rortvedt to the Twins at #56.

[rangertaunton]

Maybe theres still a chance. Critics mentioned that they thought he shouldve went earlier. Maybe he will be disappointed with money and make it to campus

[pigture perfect]

Good thing it was the twins. It means we still have a chance.

[ucahogfan]

Good thing it was the twins. It means we still have a chance.

Why do you say that?  The Twins are a team close to his home of Wisconsin and have a good size bonus pool in the 8-10M range.

[jry04]

I really wanted Rortvedt, but if any of our top prospects had to go I would choose him. Not because he isn't going to be a stud, because he is, but because I feel the most comfortable at that position with Koch behind the plate than I do at other positions. Just my personal opinion. Sure hope he somehow makes it. Twins lost a top 3 pick last year in Kyle Cody, so hopefully it happens again, but I highly doubt it.

[ucahogfan]

I really wanted Rortvedt, but if any of our top prospects had to go I would choose him. Not because he isn't going to be a stud, because he is, but because I feel the most comfortable at that position with Koch behind the plate than I do at other positions. Just my personal opinion. Sure hope he somehow makes it. Twins lost a top 3 pick last year in Kyle Cody, so hopefully it happens again, but I highly doubt it.

Fully agree with you.  I wanted Rortvedt because he would be a star at the collegiate level, but Grant Koch is a high level talent as well.

I think this might be the Twins comp pick for Cody so it might be a use it or lose it deal as an unprotected pick.  Must mean they know they can sign him.

[jry04]

Fully agree with you.  I wanted Rortvedt because he would be a star at the collegiate level, but Grant Koch is a high level talent as well.

I think this might be the Twins comp pick for Cody so it might be a use it or lose it deal as an unprotected pick.  Must mean they know they can sign him.

That pick comes at #74 actually.

[pigture perfect]

Why do you say that?  The Twins are a team close to his home of Wisconsin and have a good size bonus pool in the 8-10M range.

seems I remember reading that he wanted to move out of that area. And the twins are terrible, but money does talk.

[ucahogfan]

That pick comes at #74 actually.

Well, works in our favor then IMO.  At least we don't have to wait until August to find out.

[ucahogfan]

7 more picks left tonight.  Stobbe is the 5th best player available according to MLB.com.

[ucahogfan]

Day 1 ends with only Rortvedt coming off the board.  Still 8 more rounds to make it through to truly feel good about our signees making it to campus.

[yraciv]

Maybe theres still a chance. Critics mentioned that they thought he shouldve went earlier. Maybe he will be disappointed with money and make it to campus

5% chance.  Twins are motivated to get a bigtime C prospect due to their lack of prospects in the organization.

[dotnet]

If he's drafted in the first ten rounds than its more like less than 2% chance regardless of the situation

[Scott7703]

Day 1 ends with only Rortvedt coming off the board.  Still 8 more rounds to make it through to truly feel good about our signees making it to campus.

Stobbe will be taken today but after listening to Vitello I personally feel good about our chances to get him to campus. Sounded to me like it would take 2nd round money or better to sign him. Hopefully that played a role in him slipping out of the second round.

Rortvedt fell further than I expected but as you and I have talked about UcA I looked at him as the one signee that was most likely gone. Kid is a stud at a position of major need so I kind of assumed he would get his money.

[ucahogfan]

Stobbe will be taken today but after listening to Vitello I personally feel good about our chances to get him to campus. Sounded to me like it would take 2nd round money or better to sign him. Hopefully that played a role in him slipping out of the second round.

Rortvedt fell further than I expected but as you and I have talked about UcA I looked at him as the one signee that was most likely gone. Kid is a stud at a position of major need so I kind of assumed he would get his money.

Not a guarantee he will be taken today just like Bonfield and McKinney fell out of the top 10 rounds. Teams aren't going to use a top 10 round pick now unless they fully expect to sign the player.

[dotnet]

Stobbe will be taken today but after listening to Vitello I personally feel good about our chances to get him to campus.

These statements are irrational.  If he is taken today, there are paid professional executives who are betting half a million dollars and some of their organization health that he is going to sign.  Yes, sometimes guys in the top ten make it to campus... but it is very very unlikely. 

If Vitello is right, the teams have paid professionals who are supposed to know these things as well.  They're not going to waste a pick and draft him if there is any reason for you to actually feel good about him making it to campus. They, like UCA alluded to, just will not draft him. 

[dotnet]

I actually don't feel too great about getting Stobbe to campus at this point.  This draft is pretty weak at the top (see prior conversation about a player with 2 wins on a 50 win team being billed as potential top player in draft) which means I think there will be more than a few teams who are going to spread money pretty evenly throughout the draft and have even less than usual concentrated at the top. 

If this is the case, he could easily get close to a million much later in the draft than normal which increases the window of potential slots for him to be drafted and still get his desired money.  I hope I am wrong - though I would sacrifice him right now if it could guarantee getting everyone else to campus.

[jry04]

I actually don't feel too great about getting Stobbe to campus at this point.  This draft is pretty weak at the top (see prior conversation about a player with 2 wins on a 50 win team being billed as potential top player in draft) which means I think there will be more than a few teams who are going to spread money pretty evenly throughout the draft and have even less than usual concentrated at the top. 

If this is the case, he could easily get close to a million much later in the draft than normal which increases the window of potential slots for him to be drafted and still get his desired money.  I hope I am wrong - though I would sacrifice him right now if it could guarantee getting everyone else to campus.

It all depends on his number. If he feels he is a future 1st rounder in 3 years, then he may want much more than $1 million. The last pick of the first round slot is $1.8m this year. The last pick of the lottery round A is slotted at $1.5m. Last year, everyone of the first 42 picks signed for at least $1 million, with everyone in the first round going for well over $1 million. I think the lowest 1st round signing was $1.6m, and over half of the first round signed for north of $2m. Granted, if you are offered $1 million out of high school, you are really playing with fire if you turn it down.


This is all opinion, and probably plays out differently, but I feel if Stobbe doesn't go in the 3rd round then his number is too high and he probably doesn't get taken until later. Realistically, if you take a risk on a guy who may not be signable after the 6th round, then you are only risking losing about $200k from your pool on a guy who has 1st or 2nd round talent. Getting guys taken in the 7th-10th round does not concern me as much as if they go in the first 5 rounds.

[hawgcraZ]

They are saying Stobbe first pick in 3rd to Phils.  Would be worst case scenario

[jry04]

Stobbe gone. Let's hope nobody else goes. Only like 2 players in the top 5 rounds failed to sign last season.

[dotnet]

Realistically, if you take a risk on a guy who may not be signable after the 6th round, then you are only risking losing about $200k from your pool on a guy who has 1st or 2nd round talent. Getting guys taken in the 7th-10th round does not concern me as much as if they go in the first 5 rounds.

No, you're losing a lot more than that.  You are losing an asset.  And by definition, you're losing an asset you are able to pay below market rate because the asset pool has no position at the collective bargaining table and so they're underpaid. 

There are only so many professional caliber baseball players available for selection/signing.  You only get 1/30 of them.  If you do not sign a pick in the top 10 rounds, then every other team gets two players before you get 1 again and your talent pool is diminished.

Look at last year and the number of players who didn't sign in rounds 11-15 when there was no longer a monetary penalty.  It is still very few - though more than the first ten rounds - because they need the talent.  they're not interested in wasting a draft pick at that stage in the draft on someone who they don't think will sign. 

The ones who don't sign are usually drafted as insurance policies for risky plays earlier in the draft or the talent is good enough that you take a shot.  But even then, we all thought the lefty committed last year fell into that category and he still signed.  Teams need good players. 

[hillbilly]

Zach Jackson goes in Round 3, Pick 102 to the Blue Jays.

[Scott7703]

Stobbe gone. Let's hope nobody else goes. Only like 2 players in the top 5 rounds failed to sign last season.

Have to think they like there chances to sign him. We shall see if Vitello had a good feel or not on this one.

[ucahogfan]

Have to think they like there chances to sign him. We shall see if Vitello had a good feel or not on this one.

Phillies have a lot of money to play with. Slot for first pick was over 9M so they probably save at least 4M with that one. Phillies were one of the worst teams to pick him to help the Hogs chance.

[colbs]

Phillies have a lot of money to play with. Slot for first pick was over 9M so they probably save at least 4M with that one. Phillies were one of the worst teams to pick him to help the Hogs chance.

Yeah not looking good.

[jry04]

If those are the only two we lose, plus return everyone but Jackson who have eligibility left, then I will be pumped for next season. We still have 4 or 5 guys in this class who would have an immediate impact, and have potential to start who haven't been drafted thru 5 rounds. Getting Heiss, Fletcher, McFarland, and Benninghoff would be amazing.

[colbs]

If those are the only two we lose, plus return everyone but Jackson who have eligibility left, then I will be pumped for next season. We still have 4 or 5 guys in this class who would have an immediate impact, and have potential to start who haven't been drafted thru 5 rounds. Getting Heiss, Fletcher, McFarland, and Benninghoff would be amazing.

Agreed, I am just being greedy and was hoping we got Stobbe too!  How far does  Bonfield and Shaddy need to fall to come back?

[jry04]

Agreed, I am just being greedy and was hoping we got Stobbe too!  How far does  Bonfield and Shaddy need to fall to come back?

I personally think Bonfield is already back. No idea on Shaddy, because I don't see him getting drafted until the much later rounds, if at all. That is just my personal opinion. He doesn't have a position, and the ones that he does play he does it poorly. He is also a year removed from TJ surgery. That is just my opinion, though.

[dotnet]

I personally think Bonfield is already back. No idea on Shaddy, because I don't see him getting drafted until the much later rounds, if at all. That is just my personal opinion. He doesn't have a position, and the ones that he does play he does it poorly. He is also a year removed from TJ surgery. That is just my opinion, though.

I agree  - since they have two years to play, it makes a lot of sense for them to return. 

I wonder if Eagan doesn't get drafted until after round 10... what does he do?

[dotnet]

If those are the only two we lose, plus return everyone but Jackson who have eligibility left, then I will be pumped for next season. We still have 4 or 5 guys in this class who would have an immediate impact, and have potential to start who haven't been drafted thru 5 rounds. Getting Heiss, Fletcher, McFarland, and Benninghoff would be amazing.

Here is a question, as we wait for people to be drafted: of the incoming freshmen who have not been drafted, who do you feel the most confident will reach the Brian Anderson / Brett Eibner / Smyly level? 

To clarify, am not asking who has the highest ceiling to be the AB/Nick Schmidt level... (and stanek/cox are probably in between the two) because you can't really predict that so well.  But the all SEC, great, rounds 2-3 drafted player... which several of the guys left have a shot, do you think is most likely? 

Edit: with the caveat that none (probably) of us have seen the incoming freshman play and we're just listening to interviews/reading scouting reports/etc

[jry04]

I agree  - since they have two years to play, it makes a lot of sense for them to return. 

I wonder if Eagan doesn't get drafted until after round 10... what does he do?

No idea. DVH kind of made it sound like he didn't have a ton of desire to turn pro. If he does, I would encourage him to go if drafted, because he has had 3 pretty solid years here and I don't see his stock improving enough to matter for next year's draft. Take the money while you can, because he won't make anything as a senior getting drafted outside of the top 10 rounds. However, if he doesn't aspire to play in the minors and wants to enjoy one more year in college, then more power to him.

[dotnet]

Yeah, It doesn't seem like he's going to get too much even this year.  But he could come back and have a monster year. 

JB Moss (A&M just got drafted.  He hit 250 last year. His senior year he hit 325 and was much improved.  As a 7th round pick, I'm sure he'll sign well below slot... but I bet its definitely more than he could have ever gotten in the post 10th round last year as a junior.

[jry04]

Here is a question, as we wait for people to be drafted: of the incoming freshmen who have not been drafted, who do you feel the most confident will reach the Brian Anderson / Brett Eibner / Smyly level? 

To clarify, am not asking who has the highest ceiling to be the AB/Nick Schmidt level... (and stanek/cox are probably in between the two) because you can't really predict that so well.  But the all SEC, great, rounds 2-3 drafted player... which several of the guys left have a shot, do you think is most likely? 

Just based on all the articles I have read and all of their accolades, I would say the 4 I mentioned have the best shot out of the ones who still may make it. There are some rankings out there that have all 4 as high as the top 100, but all are unanimous top 200 prospects right now. Heiss had an arm injury, so hopefully he is fine, but he hit 95+mph a few times last year. Benninghoff was ranked the #25 recruit in the country by prep baseball report, and #75 by PG. Fletcher is ranked in the top 100 by nearly every publication too for high school recruits. Heiss was #18 by Prep Baseball Report pre-injury, but checked in at #138 a few months ago on Perfect Game. McFarland is top 100 on PG, as well.

If you are a top 500 prospect out of HS you have a pretty good chance of being a pretty good college player before your career is up. That is like being a top 250 recruit in football, or a top 150 recruit in basketball. If you are a top 100 recruit in baseball, since there are so many recruits in baseball, that is like being a 4 or 5* recruit in football/basketball. I would say the 4 I mentioned along with Stobbe and Rortvedt are the baseball equivalent to 4 and 5* players.

[jry04]

Rd 8 and no more news, so that is great news.

[dotnet]

I would say the 4 I mentioned have the best shot out of the ones who still may make it.

yeah... pick one

[TebowHater]

Eagan in the 9th...pick 285 to Pirates...

Probably gone

[jry04]

yeah... pick one

My bad, I think Benninghoff for pitcher and Fletcher for position player, personally.

[dotnet]

Today went about as well as one could reasonably have hoped

[hawgcraZ]

Agreed.  Really need to avoid those top 5 or so teams that pick first with big bonus pools tomorrow and this could be a home run draft for us all things considered!

[bulldog04]

Draft has been good to us so far fellas.  Losing two recruits and two players isn't bad.  Just don't need any surprises tomorrow

[ricepig]

Eagan in the 9th...pick 285 to Pirates...

Probably gone

Yeah, the baseball twitter account calls him the newest Pirate?? Anyway, good luck with whatever decision you make Clark.


https://twitter.com/RazorbackBSB/status/741407495235592192

[Scott7703]

My bad, I think Benninghoff for pitcher and Fletcher for position player, personally.

I like Gates, McFarland, Williams and fletcher. Think all four start in the field for us. I'm not sure on the pitching but have heard good things about Benninghoff and lefty whose name slips myind now.

[Supermark101]

Why do you say that?  The Twins are a team close to his home of Wisconsin and have a good size bonus pool in the 8-10M range.

They also had 4 pick in the first 2 rounds. That's 8 million or so right there. Unless they save on the kid from Pitt, we have a shot, If he isn't happy with 1,5 million

[jry04]

I like Gates, McFarland, Williams and fletcher. Think all four start in the field for us. I'm not sure on the pitching but have heard good things about Benninghoff and lefty whose name slips myind now.

I just hesitate to trust a juco like Gates, and Shaddy needs a position. DVH said he is going to likely try Shaddy there. I think Williams is going to be a great fielder, but not sure about his bat. McFarland and Fletcher should hit from day 1.

[Supermark101]

I figured all juniors are gone until they are not. I'm sad about the 2 high school kids. we all need a win after last season.

What is the significance of them playing in a college summer league?  Leverage?

[lefty08]

I figured all juniors are gone until they are not. I'm sad about the 2 high school kids. we all need a win after last season.

What is the significance of them playing in a college summer league?  Leverage?

I'd say exposure, mainly