Paul Finebaum's Predictions on SEC Win Totals

[WilsonHog]

He updated them this afternoon.

Alabama - 10.5
Auburn - 9
LSU - 9
Texas A&M - 7.5
Arkansas - 6
Ole Miss - 5.5
Mississippi State - 5

Georgia - 9
Florida - 8
Tennessee - 7.5
Kentucky - 7
Missouri - 6
Vanderbilt - 6
South Carolina - 5

If those numbers bear out, Texas A&M and Tennessee will be looking for new head coaches come Thanksgiving weekend.

[Sed76]

And we will all be upset or depressed while CBB is given more time to win. Not fun to think about at all but it wouldn't shock me.

[gchamblee]

Inb4 all the posters that think Finebaum is an idiot think he is suddenly a prophet and use it as evidence of something.

[ricepig]

Looks what South Point Sportsbook updated today.


https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/south-point-sportsbook-updates-sec-overunder-win-totals-odds/

[HogsonHicks]

Arkansas too low; Missouri too high.

[hawganatic]

He updated them this afternoon.

Alabama - 10.5
Auburn - 9
LSU - 9
Texas A&M - 7.5
Arkansas - 6
Ole Miss - 5.5
Mississippi State - 5

Georgia - 9
Florida - 8
Tennessee - 7.5
Kentucky - 7
Missouri - 6
Vanderbilt - 6
South Carolina - 5

If those numbers bear out, Texas A&M and Tennessee will be looking for new head coaches come Thanksgiving weekend.

Suspect A&M is going to be looking for a coach regardless.  If we only hit six wins this season there will be a lot more people jumping off of BB's wagon.  Mainly because six wins means we end the season with a loss in the bowl game. 

Really the projections don't make much sense.  Going by his projected win totals he thinks we are better than Missouri, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Miss State (and we are).   We win those games we are 4-4 in conference.  Three cupcake wins puts us at 7 for the season.  That should probably be the floor for anybody's predictions going into the season.

[WilsonHog]

Suspect A&M is going to be looking for a coach regardless.  If we only hit six wins this season there will be a lot more people jumping off of BB's wagon.  Mainly because six wins means we end the season with a loss in the bowl game. 

Really the projections don't make much sense.  Going by his projected win totals he thinks we are better than Missouri, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Miss State (and we are).   We win those games we are 4-4 in conference.  Three cupcake wins puts us at 7 for the season.  That should probably be the floor for anybody's predictions going into the season.

After a coach gets a couple of recruiting classes in, a 7-5 regular season should be the floor for any season. Playing .500 football within the conference and winning three cupcake games really ought not be too much too ask. Do that a few seasons in a row, however, and the coach in question opens himself up to a very reasonable argument that he has taken the program as far as he can.

[hawganatic]

After a coach gets a couple of recruiting classes in, a 7-5 regular season should be the floor for any season. Playing .500 football within the conference and winning three cupcake games really ought not be too much too ask. Do that a few seasons in a row, however, and the coach in question opens himself up to a very reasonable argument that he has taken the program as far as he can.

Absolutely agree.  I'm just making a point about these specific projections.  Not sure how he can look at our schedule and project only six wins.  Think the schedule wasn't factored in at all.

Think we have a good shot at 9 wins this season.  The games I laid out before and beat A&M/TCU.  Losses to Aub, Bama, and LSU.

Get a good match up in the bowl game and I think we can hit 10 wins for the season.

[lumphog]

   Yall do know that Paul is a friggin IDIOT.... He's NEVER right about ANYTHING..... EVER!!!

[HiggiePiggy]

Man. So if it plays out like he has it that would mean the sec had only 1 team win 10+ games.

[TheRazorback500]

Tennessee and Kentucky are overrated IMO.

[gchamblee]

  Yall do know that Paul is a friggin IDIOT.... He's NEVER right about ANYTHING..... EVER!!!

Based on what rice posted, these arent even Pauls predictions, he is just echoing someone elses predictions.

[WilsonHog]

I couldn't make a case for a nine or 10-win season unless I had a gun to my head.

I hope to be wrong.

[nwahogfan1]

He updated them this afternoon.

Alabama - 10.5
Auburn - 9
LSU - 9
Texas A&M - 7.5
Arkansas - 6
Ole Miss - 5.5
Mississippi State - 5

Georgia - 9
Florida - 8
Tennessee - 7.5
Kentucky - 7
Missouri - 6
Vanderbilt - 6
South Carolina - 5

If those numbers bear out, Texas A&M and Tennessee will be looking for new head coaches come Thanksgiving weekend.

Funny both coaches came on board at their school about the same as CBB and is expected to win almost 2 games more than us but cbb is not on the hot seat yet.  It shows either the condition of where our program was when cbb took over or our AD and fans just do not expect as much.

I am hoping soon we will start expecting more and coaches will deliver.  But when?  I am hoping NLT 2020 season but we have to bring in more difference makers on more sides of the ball.

[OneTuskOverTheLine™]

Suspect A&M is going to be looking for a coach regardless.  If we only hit six wins this season there will be a lot more people jumping off of BB's wagon.  Mainly because six wins means we end the season with a loss in the bowl game. 

Really the projections don't make much sense.  Going by his projected win totals he thinks we are better than Missouri, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Miss State (and we are).   We win those games we are 4-4 in conference.  Three cupcake wins puts us at 7 for the season.  That should probably be the floor for anybody's predictions going into the season.

You're probably right, but it's more fun for me to watch those who predict 6 wins or less change their tune by the end of the season. I feel 8 or 9 coming on, but I have been wrong 97.8% of the time...

[MuskogeeHogFan]

He updated them this afternoon.

Alabama - 10.5
Auburn - 9
LSU - 9
Texas A&M - 7.5
Arkansas - 6
Ole Miss - 5.5
Mississippi State - 5

Georgia - 9
Florida - 8
Tennessee - 7.5
Kentucky - 7
Missouri - 6
Vanderbilt - 6
South Carolina - 5

If those numbers bear out, Texas A&M and Tennessee will be looking for new head coaches come Thanksgiving weekend.

Predicting 6 wins for Arkansas isn't as a result of any in-depth analysis on the part of Finebaum. Everyone is projecting 6 to 7 wins for us. He's just hopping on the bandwagon. I believe we will win more than 7 this year in the regular season. Might win 8-9 in the regular season if everything goes just right. Bielema needs to win 9 if he hopes to stick around. The pressure is on.

[ricepig]

Predicting 6 wins for Arkansas isn't as a result of any in-depth analysis on the part of Finebaum. Everyone is projecting 6 to 7 wins for us. He's just hopping on the bandwagon. I believe we will win more than 7 this year in the regular season. Might win 8-9 in the regular season if everything goes just right. Bielema needs to win 9 if he hopes to stick around. The pressure is on.

He's going nowhere next year.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

He's going nowhere next year.

I know that, but if he doesn't knock out 9 wins in 2017, the process of gathering and vetting candidates may begin in more earnest in order to put together a succession plan following the 2018 season.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Inb4 all the posters that think Finebaum is an idiot think he is suddenly a prophet and use it as evidence of something.

So you think he's an idiot right?  I mean come on we will win at least 9 games! 😉

[MuskogeeHogFan]

So you think he's an idiot right?  I mean come on we will win at least 9 games! 😉

Come on man, saying "6 wins" is the easy way to keep from taking the time to do a serious analysis. It's low hanging fruit. That's all Finebaum is doing. He hasn't dedicated any time to real analysis. Oh let's see...Alabama #1 in the SEC West, could be either of Auburn or LSU who might surprise, in the East, most likely Florida, Georgia or Tennessee....see how easy that is? Oh yeah and Arkansas, ummmmm, 6-6.

[GuvHog]

Predicting 6 wins for Arkansas isn't as a result of any in-depth analysis on the part of Finebaum. Everyone is projecting 6 to 7 wins for us. He's just hopping on the bandwagon. I believe we will win more than 7 this year in the regular season. Might win 8-9 in the regular season if everything goes just right. Bielema needs to win 9 if he hopes to stick around. The pressure is on.

I believe they'll win 9 regular season games myself but if They only manage 6 wins as Finebaum predicts, Bret will lose a lot of support from the BOT, some of the big money boosters will pony up the money for his buyout, and Jeff Long will be under tremendous pressure to cut him lose. The question is would Long cave in to the pressure again or stand firm??

[ChicoHog]

I already bet on over 7 for Hogs, under 9 for LSU and I think my best bet is over 5 for South
Carolina.  They are in  a weak division, finished pretty decent last year and I think they keep improving as Muschamp is a good recruiter and defensive coach.  They have to fix their offense but that new QB they have should be much improved.  I think they win at least 6 and maybe 7.  Just hope they don't beat us!

[hawgon]

That's awesome.  We'll get to watch A&M fire a coach ours has never been good enough to beat and bring in Chip Kelly.  At this rate, we may not beat them for another decade.

[Al Boarland]

I know that, but if he doesn't knock out 9 wins in 2017, the process of gathering and vetting candidates may begin in more earnest in order to put together a succession plan following the 2018 season.

It will have to be an up and comer or a washout.

[LRRandy]

Come on man, saying "6 wins" is the easy way to keep from taking the time to do a serious analysis. It's low hanging fruit. That's all Finebaum is doing. He hasn't dedicated any time to real analysis. Oh let's see...Alabama #1 in the SEC West, could be either of Auburn or LSU who might surprise, in the East, most likely Florida, Georgia or Tennessee....see how easy that is? Oh yeah and Arkansas, ummmmm, 6-6.

or....... Maybe the serious  analysis is little returning production at offensive skill positions.  Offensive line that struggled lost starting tackle. Defense that was abysmal implementing entirely new scheme.  Head coach that seemed to get out coached at halftime returns. Number one running back retires due to injury. Mentality of dropping last two games of the season with big halftime leads may carry over to next season. Questions about talent level of many starting positions cast doubt about this years team ability to win 8-9 games. Is it not reasonable to think that may be part of the thinking going into such prognostications.

You dismiss what seems to be a consensus among numerous sites and number of win predictions as low hanging fruit. The number 6 is not an outlier. It is consistently coming up all over the web. Maybe the serious analysis has been done and you can find possible other outcomes to the conclusion so you choose not to believe it. It's called being a fan.
         Anyone predicting anything about the coming season is just guessing. Wether they get paid a lot of money to do it or they live on a local fan message board. We will find out soon enough. That's part of the fun of college football.

[kodiakisland]

Come on man, saying "6 wins" is the easy way to keep from taking the time to do a serious analysis. It's low hanging fruit. That's all Finebaum is doing. He hasn't dedicated any time to real analysis. Oh let's see...Alabama #1 in the SEC West, could be either of Auburn or LSU who might surprise, in the East, most likely Florida, Georgia or Tennessee....see how easy that is? Oh yeah and Arkansas, ummmmm, 6-6.

Or, maybe he caught the last two games of the year. 

I think 6 is low, but I certainly understand where that comes from. 

[Al Boarland]

Or, maybe he caught the last two games of the year. 

I think 6 is low, but I certainly understand where that comes from.

Agreed. I think 7 is the number, but you can easily make an argument for 6 just like you could 8.

[bphi11ips]

Come on man, saying "6 wins" is the easy way to keep from taking the time to do a serious analysis. It's low hanging fruit. That's all Finebaum is doing. He hasn't dedicated any time to real analysis. Oh let's see...Alabama #1 in the SEC West, could be either of Auburn or LSU who might surprise, in the East, most likely Florida, Georgia or Tennessee....see how easy that is? Oh yeah and Arkansas, ummmmm, 6-6.

Objectively, 6-6 is the current consensus ouside of Hogville.

TCU is getting its usual preseason respect.  It will win 8 or so because it plays a comparatively weak schedule.  College football has always been based on number of wins, not SOS.  So, TCU is favored to beat Arkansas. Don't think they will myself.  Arkansas is a bad physical matchup for them.  Could they be Texas Tech in 2015?  Probably not.  Our secondary may be the strength of the defense.  So, if we beat TCU, we go 4-0 out of conference.  The question becomes this - how many SEC teams do we beat?

We are not going to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. 

It will takes miracles to beat Auburn or LSU.

We play South Carolina in Columbia.  That is usually a loss.  Vegas and ESPN power rankings have the game as a push.

Bret Bielema has never beaten Texas A&M.

Ole Miss is a road game.  We usually lose in Oxford.  Thy have better recruiting rankings, cheaters or not.

So that leaves two home games to close the season.  Arkansas is 1-2 against Missouri since Missouri joined the SEC, 3-8 all-time. 

Brett Bielema is 1-3 against Mississippi State.  RPO's were our Achilles Heel in 2016.  Nick Fitzgerald is the best RPO QB in the conference. 

Finebaum is not going to go out on a limb for Arkansas.  We can do that here, though. 

[Al Boarland]

Objectively, 6-6 is the current consensus ouside of Hogville.

TCU is getting its usual preseason respect.  It will win 8 or so because it plays a comparatively weak schedule.  College football has always been based on number of wins, not SOS.  So, TCU is favored to beat Arkansas. Don't think they will myself.  Arkansas is a bad physical matchup for them.

Are we really a physical team?

[bphi11ips]

Are we really a physical team?

Compared to TCU?  Yes.

Are you kidding me?

[Al Boarland]

Compared to TCU?  Yes.

Are you kidding me?

We slung it around quite a bit and got pushed around. That doesn't scream physicality to me.

[Jborohog09]

Objectively, 6-6 is the current consensus ouside of Hogville.

TCU is getting its usual preseason respect.  It will win 8 or so because it plays a comparatively weak schedule.  College football has always been based on number of wins, not SOS.  So, TCU is favored to beat Arkansas. Don't think they will myself.  Arkansas is a bad physical matchup for them.  Could they be Texas Tech in 2015?  Probably not.  Our secondary may be the strength of the defense.  So, if we beat TCU, we go 4-0 out of conference.  The question becomes this - how many SEC teams do we beat?

We are not going to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. 

It will takes miracles to beat Auburn or LSU.

We play South Carolina in Columbia.  That is usually a loss.  Vegas and ESPN power rankings have the game as a push.

Bret Bielema has never beaten Texas A&M.

Ole Miss is a road game.  We usually lose in Oxford.  Thy have better recruiting rankings, cheaters or not.

So that leaves two home games to close the season.  Arkansas is 1-2 against Missouri since Missouri joined the SEC, 3-8 all-time. 

Brett Bielema is 1-3 against Mississippi State.  RPO's were our Achilles Heel in 2016.  Nick Fitzgerald is the best RPO QB in the conference. 

Finebaum is not going to go out on a limb for Arkansas.  We can do that here, though. 

Hogs are actually 5-3 in Oxford since the turn of the century and only 5-6 all-time at SC so not really an automatic loss, especially since they'll still be young next year.  The Missouri series is actually 5-3 all-time in favor of them.  Should be 4-4, but well...you know.  Everything is else is on point.  Hopefully the bye week before the A&M game will help, but we'll just have to wait and see. 

[bphi11ips]

We slung it around quite a bit and got pushed around. That doesn't scream physicality to me.

Maybe.  If you look at the boxscore from last year, that's a fair conclusion.  On the other hand, we led in TOP by 7 minutes and had a positive turnover margin of 2.0.  Arkansas gave up chunk plays to TCU like it did to everyone in 2016.

Arkansas is still the more physical team.  That doesn't mean we'll win.

[bphi11ips]

Hogs are actually 5-3 in Oxford since the turn of the century and only 5-6 all-time at SC so not really an automatic loss, especially since they'll still be young next year.  The Missouri series is actually 5-3 all-time in favor of them.  Should be 4-4, but well...you know.  Everything is else is on point.  Hopefully the bye week before the A&M game will help, but we'll just have to wait and see. 

Yeah.  I meant to type 3-5 against Mizzou. 

[Jborohog09]

Yeah.  I meant to type 3-5 against Mizzou. 

I figured, but had to be sure haha.  I agree with you on the physicality against TCU.  The d-line sacked Hill several times and other positions played tough, but like you said they gave up big chunk plays.  Especially in the second half.  The o-line was actually solid for the most part that game.  They were terrible on the goal line, however, when it was 20-7 and they had a chance to punch it in to put the game on ice.  Short yardage situations were unfortunately a problem all season and they desperately need that to be corrected for this coming year. 

[jkstock04]

This team and coaches hit rock bottom to end the season, and are now getting zero respect. That could turn out to be a good thing or it could be bad.

One has to wonder about the mentality of this team going into the summer and what it will be like come late summer/early fall practice. Will they play with a chip on their shoulder with something to prove? I gotta say, I've seen very little fire or pissed off type of play throughout most of the Bielema era. I still can't get over that punk from Mizzou last year coming out the week of the game...talking all that dumb trash, and our guys can't or don't do anything about it. We just lay down and get beat by the worst team in the SEC, even after their guy talked that trash putting our team down. Arkansas teams from the past would've absolutely destroyed that team...especially given those circumstances.

I'm sure these are some great kids, but like I said there just is not much nastiness on the field. Our O-line overall is overhyped and has been the entire Bielema era. I would like to see that change this year...for Bielema to be successful here he is going to have to have dominant O-line play.

All these guys have taken a lot of flack and one would think that's gotta hurt their pride and they should come out and have something to prove. Think of Austin Allen, that's gotta irritate the hell out of him that a guy like Paul Finebaum comes out saying 6 wins for his team this year. Vegas odds putting us at 6.5. The coach talk/PR answer would be they don't pay attention to that stuff...but you know damn good and well that they do.

Things have been eerily quiet from Bielema since the end of the season. No dumb twitter stuff, no more loud mouth stuff that gets the press' attention. Maybe if we are lucky there will be no more 'being Bret Bielema'.  I almost get the feeling we are going to see his best shot this season and he may be all business.

[LRHawg]

I almost get the feeling we are going to see his best shot this season and he may be all business.

Of course he is. This year will likely decide his fate. 6 wins and he'll be back, but will be Looking for somewhere to land in 2019. I hope he's successful, for what it's worth.

[Al Boarland]

This team and coaches hit rock bottom to end the season, and are now getting zero respect. That could turn out to be a good thing or it could be bad.

One has to wonder about the mentality of this team going into the summer and what it will be like come late summer/early fall practice. Will they play with a chip on their shoulder with something to prove? I gotta say, I've seen very little fire or pissed off type of play throughout most of the Bielema era. I still can't get over that punk from Mizzou last year coming out the week of the game...talking all that dumb trash, and our guys can't or don't do anything about it. We just lay down and get beat by the worst team in the SEC, even after their guy talked that trash putting our team down. Arkansas teams from the past would've absolutely destroyed that team...especially given those circumstances.

I'm sure these are some great kids, but like I said there just is not much nastiness on the field. Our O-line overall is overhyped and has been the entire Bielema era. I would like to see that change this year...for Bielema to be successful here he is going to have to have dominant O-line play.

All these guys have taken a lot of flack and one would think that's gotta hurt their pride and they should come out and have something to prove. Think of Austin Allen, that's gotta irritate the hell out of him that a guy like Paul Finebaum comes out saying 6 wins for his team this year. Vegas odds putting us at 6.5. The coach talk/PR answer would be they don't pay attention to that stuff...but you know damn good and well that they do.

Things have been eerily quiet from Bielema since the end of the season. No dumb twitter stuff, no more loud mouth stuff that gets the press' attention. Maybe if we are lucky there will be no more 'being Bret Bielema'.  I almost get the feeling we are going to see his best shot this season and he may be all business.

I'm sure the team is disappointed with last season, but so are the other 14 teams in our league. I'm not sure what kind of mental edge you can get from that perspective. It just comes down to talent 9 times out of 10.

[ricepig]

I almost get the feeling we are going to see his best shot this season and he may be all business.

I find it comical that you think we were getting anything less than his "best shot".  Now, neither you or I, or even Bielema, has been happy with the end results, but to think he was coaching any less, is looking for an excuse.

[jgphillips3]

Regular season, I see 8 wins if we develop fast enough on defense and the receivers live up to 75% of their potential.  7 if we self destruct somewhere. 9 if someone better self destructs.  Bowl game...all about match ups.

[Al Boarland]

Regular season, I see 8 wins if we develop fast enough on defense and the receivers live up to 75% of their potential.  7 if we self destruct somewhere. 9 if someone better self destructs.  Bowl game...all about match ups.

It is about matchups. What 8 teams can you say going into the season we matchup favorably with?

[rhames]

This will be another 6 or 7 win season.

[cosmodrum]

I see 8 we COULD win, but we will drop a couple of those. 6 is about right.

[rhames]

Maybe.  If you look at the boxscore from last year, that's a fair conclusion.  On the other hand, we led in TOP by 7 minutes and had a positive turnover margin of 2.0.  Arkansas gave up chunk plays to TCU like it did to everyone in 2016.

Arkansas is still the more physical team.  That doesn't mean we'll win.

TOP means squat in most cases. Especially in a game that went into OT


The hogs were not more physical than TCU last year.


The most physical team Bret has had was in 2014 IMO. Last year's team wasn't physical at all lol.

[hawgon]

Time of possession is the most useless stat in college football.  And it is especially so when your defense is as bad as ours has been. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I'm sure the team is disappointed with last season, but so are the other 14 teams in our league. I'm not sure what kind of mental edge you can get from that perspective. It just comes down to talent 9 times out of 10.

Based on what I am hearing, I would say this vastly underestimates the attitude of the Hogs as a team about how the season ended and their different attitude since they returned to work. Not all of the other 13 teams in our conference experienced the same ending to their seasons. It isn't ending with two losses as much as it is about how those losses came to be.

[Al Boarland]

Based on what I am hearing, I would say this vastly underestimates the attitude of the Hogs as a team about how the season ended and their different attitude since they returned to work. Not all of the other 13 teams in our conference experienced the same ending to their seasons. It isn't ending with two losses as much as it is about how those losses came to be.

They all want to be the best. Do you think bama is satisfied with how their season ended? LSU? Ole Miss? Auburn with all their talent? I'm sorry, I just don't buy that theory.

[rhames]

Based on what I am hearing, I would say this vastly underestimates the attitude of the Hogs as a team about how the season ended and their different attitude since they returned to work. Not all of the other 13 teams in our conference experienced the same ending to their seasons. It isn't ending with two losses as much as it is about how those losses came to be.

Yeah but they also felt the same way after the Auburn game, the LSU game,  the MIZ game.....



We got Bret's 2nd half guarantee in the bowl game


We have been fed these statements before. "Everyone is showing up early to meetings"

"EVERYONE IS BUYING IN"


It's the same ole talk we have had for almost 5 seasons. It's time to show it on the field.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Yeah but they also felt the same way after the Auburn game, the LSU game,  the MIZ game.....



We got Bret's 2nd half guarantee in the bowl game


We have been fed these statements before. "Everyone is showing up early to meetings"

"EVERYONE IS BUYING IN"


It's the same ole talk we have had for almost 5 seasons. It's time to show it on the field.

You know, I can understand a lot of folks being doubters. All I can say is wait and see. And saying that, I'm not saying that suddenly we are going to go out and win 10 games, all I am saying is that I don't think (for multiple reasons) that we are going to see a Razorback team that folds in the second half.

[rhames]

You know, I can understand a lot of folks being doubters. All I can say is wait and see. And saying that, I'm not saying that suddenly we are going to go out and win 10 games, all I am saying is that I don't think (for multiple reasons) that we are going to see a Razorback team that folds in the second half.

Fair enough. I hope you're right!  I usually try to be optimistic but finding it hard to be right now.


Just like most if we beat TCU my excitement will go up.