Honest predictions for Auburn.......

[hydro_dynamic_spatula]

Florida's DBs are much better than Auburn's.

Probably more NFL talent in Florida's secondary.  Torched against Josh Dobbs though who's not a great passer.

[hydro_dynamic_spatula]

Yes, it does matter. There is no "garbage time" to Saban.

Ok even if I 100% agree with that, you still had so many negative plays on offense.  You gave up two defensive touchdowns which basically nullifies two touchdowns scored by your offense.  Taking all that away the final score would've been 35-16.

Like I said.  I think you have a good offense, but you can't sell me it's good solely because you put 30 on Bama.  You can sell me it's good because you average 34 points a game.  I'll buy that.  I just think Auburn's defense at home coming off a bye is good enough to hold you to a touchdown less than that.

[hogfansince79]

Hogs 38
Tigers 26

:razorback: :razorback: :razorback:

[Razorback_2007]

Razorbacks 38
War Beagle 24

[rhames]

Giving up a defensive touchdown does not nullify scoring a touchdown. You still had to score a touchdown and gain yards to do it.


I get what you're trying to say but the logic doesn't work.

[a0ashle]

Ok even if I 100% agree with that, you still had so many negative plays on offense.  You gave up two defensive touchdowns which basically nullifies two touchdowns scored by your offense.  Taking all that away the final score would've been 35-16.

Like I said.  I think you have a good offense, but you can't sell me it's good solely because you put 30 on Bama.  You can sell me it's good because you average 34 points a game.  I'll buy that.  I just think Auburn's defense at home coming off a bye is good enough to hold you to a touchdown less than that.

wait, so because we turned the ball over 5 times, and because they scored on those turnovers, that some how means we scored less than 30pts on Bama?

We turned the ball over 5 times and scored 30 pts on Bama. He11, I'll even take out the late TD. We had 5 turnovers and we still scored 24pts on Bama....

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

Not buying into the auburn hype at all. Some of the worst teams we have ever had kicked that ass in Jordan. I think the John l. Smith team set a record for sacks in a game. Heck even bobby Petrino's first team won down there.
This 2016 Arkansas team is much much better than those two squads.
Everyone in the media is hyping auburn just like they were hyping ole miss last week,
Their one and only win of note is against les miles.

We will pull away in the 2nd half.
Ark- 38
Auburn- 21

[hydro_dynamic_spatula]

wait, so because we turned the ball over 5 times, and because they scored on those turnovers, that some how means we scored less than 30pts on Bama?

We turned the ball over 5 times and scored 30 pts on Bama. He11, I'll even take out the late TD. We had 5 turnovers and we still scored 24pts on Bama....

No.  You scored 30 on Bama, but if you want to look at scoring 30 on Bama as a sign of how great your offense is, you also have to include that your offense gave Bama 14 points, which is a +16 differential.  I wouldn't say that's great.

[a0ashle]

No.  You scored 30 on Bama, but if you want to look at scoring 30 on Bama as a sign of how great your offense is, you also have to include that your offense gave Bama 14 points, which is a +16 differential.  I wouldn't say that's great.

You could factor that in if you want, but unless you think you're gonna recreate that kind of defensive performance, you would only be kidding yourself. You won't get 5 turnovers, you won't score 2 defensive touchdowns, and hopefully you don't benefit from a phantom holding call negating a touchdown.


So how many points do we score against Bama-like defense, if we don't turn it over 5 times, if we don't give you free points and we don't get jobbed by the refs on a touchdown throw? More than 30.

[rhames]

No.  You scored 30 on Bama, but if you want to look at scoring 30 on Bama as a sign of how great your offense is, you also have to include that your offense gave Bama 14 points, which is a +16 differential.  I wouldn't say that's great.

That's more evidence of how good Bama's defense is though so actually that proves the opposite of the poring the you're trying to make.

[Michael_E_Davis]

I changed my prediction just because of GameDay.   

Arkansas: 35
Auburn: 28

[hydro_dynamic_spatula]

You could factor that in if you want, but unless you think you're gonna recreate that kind of defensive performance, you would only be kidding yourself. You won't get 5 turnovers, you won't score 2 defensive touchdowns, and hopefully you don't benefit from a phantom holding call negating a touchdown.


So how many points do we score against Bama-like defense, if we don't turn it over 5 times, if we don't give you free points and we don't get jobbed by the refs on a touchdown throw? More than 30.

This argument is invalid by it's very nature.  You note Auburn as a "Bama-like" defense, but say it's impossible for Auburn to recreate Bama's performance. 

But anyway, I'll agree you are not going to turn the ball over 5 times and we will not score two touchdowns on defense.  Auburn's defensive identity is much different than Bama's.  It's more about keeping a team in front and making them execute at a high level the length of the field.  I think Arkansas is capable of doing this for around 20-27 points.  Not more, but you don't have to prove it to me.  We will find out tomorrow. 

[hydro_dynamic_spatula]

That's more evidence of how good Bama's defense is though so actually that proves the opposite of the poring the you're trying to make.

You can't look at one side of the argument and ignore the other.  You are assuming that both your offense and Bama's defense are inherently good.  You are looking at Bama scoring 14 points on you as only Bama having a good defense, and you are looking at you scoring 30 on Bama as only you have a good offense. 

[Snoop Hoggy Hogg]

It's not that simple.  You were down 42-17.  Everyone in the solar system knew you were done.  You scored a TD late in the 3rd to get to 24.  Bama tacked on another TD to go up 49-24 and you scored a garbage TD with 3 mins left.  You know as well as I do that's not the same as scoring 30 in the course of a competitive game.  It's a mirage.

You pretending you're not a troll is a mirage.

[hogcard1964]

Making the real final score A&M 29 Auburn 10

19 points is a pretty good thumping.

[bpoecell]

A&M didn't get to 30, and that was when our offense was stuck in neutral.  I don't see you outdoing them.

That offense got out of neutral against UL Monroe and the worst team in the West. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that turns out to be a mirage. You've run the ball very well, but other than Kelly getting free a few times we were able to stuff the Ole Miss running game pretty well, and that was with the threat him taking off.

I don't doubt your d-line's ability to get to Austin, and I suspect they will a couple of times, but he's shown the ability to take a sack or two and keep plugging on. It won't be easy, but I'm not too worried about our offense.

It's a very intriguing matchup and I honestly wouldn't be surprised with any outcome, but I feel pretty good about our chances. Good luck tomorrow night.

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

This is a game to where one team is going to prove they have stepped up to the next level,  and I think that team is going to be Auburn; sorry.  This game just does not set up well for us.  We have had two hard games in a row, Auburn has had a chance to rest up for this.  They are at home.  They have a good defense against the run,  and Arkansas has to establish the run to be successful.  I just don't think this game is going to go well for us.  I think Auburn is going to win pretty big.

Arkansas: 28
Auburn: 42

In what universe is auburn scoring 42 points in an SEC game? Maybe if they played miss state again.

[rhames]

You can't look at one side of the argument and ignore the other.  You are assuming that both your offense and Bama's defense are inherently good.  You are looking at Bama scoring 14 points on you as only Bama having a good defense, and you are looking at you scoring 30 on Bama as only you have a good offense. 

Reading this made me flash back to this scene

[TheRazorback500]

Hogs 31-28

:razorback:

[Großer Kriegschwein]

Check it out. Here's what the line is all about. There is a 74% chance that the elevators will work, but a 87% chance the QC coaches can make it thru the blockade to the locker room with over 13 minutes remaining at halftime. Pair that with a 49% chance we get a head referee on the Auburn payroll and you get the inherent difficulties of playing Auburn.

They are coming off a bye-week and playing at home factor in there a little too along with us having played aTm, Alabama and Mississippi in consecutive weeks without a bye.

[HogimusMaximus]

34-24 AllBarn, dont think we get it done this week.

[Großer Kriegschwein]

34-24 AllBarn, dont think we get it done this week.

That's a shock.

[Hoggish1]

Hogs 42
Auburn 17

...something in that area.

This is closer to what I had in mind (41-24).

I saw the O-line light come on last week.  With another week to get better we are going to see the running game continue to improve.  When AU can't stop our running game and brings more into the box, the passing game is going to put them away.

[31to6]

Gus bus runs out of steam and has to settle for FGs.

AA leads a 4Q TD drive to win the game.

Ark 27 AU 23

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I predict right now in our locker room there is a poster of some analyst stating our O-line cannot handle their D-line or pass rush. Motivation.  And I don't think it will be much past our first 2 possesions until we find out the true answer to that question.  CBB isn't much of a true 'riverboat' gambler like a former coach. He is gonna want to know exactly where things stand as quickly as possible.  That's just my opinion. If we can run between the tackles efficiently, its going to be a long game for the tiggers. If not, then plan B and student body left/right with a good mixture of passing.

The difference is that what I posted is what they actually ran on down and distance over the course of 2 games vs. SEC opponents since the time that the Auburn posters on here said that they, "got their act together" on offense. I didn't make this up. They actually did run and pass that often on those downs and distances and as it turns out, it was very predictable.

I know the staff has identified those tendencies and has conveyed that to the kids. Now it is just a matter of what defensive sets are called to counter those tendencies and executing effectively to stop them. If you know that on 1st down there is a 91% chance that they are going to run, you probably don't make an alignment call that drops 7 into coverage. By the same token if you know they have a demonstrated history on 3rd down with a distance of anywhere from 4 to 10 or 10+ yards to go, that they have in the past thrown 100% of the time, you don't load up the box to defend the run, even if they come out in what appears to be a run set.

Auburn's offensive play calling has become predictable, if you pay attention to what they have been doing since Gus handed over the play calling duties.

[Bacons Rebellion]

Ok even if I 100% agree with that, you still had so many negative plays on offense.  You gave up two defensive touchdowns which basically nullifies two touchdowns scored by your offense.  Taking all that away the final score would've been 35-16.

...

That's one of the worst attempts at logic I've seen.

[sigpooie]

The trailer park of the plains 24
Creators of all good and divine 38
They have had 4 or 5 home games and lost 2 to 3 *lsu
Their fans are the only tolls left in the blog markets. They are always behind on the reality bus. Even when the win they don't understand the problem with cheating. They have spent more seasons than nutt coached on probation. 4th overall
And they Mommas and wifes smell like a dollars store perfume counter and take 1.4 seats per row.
And my honest prediction is that Aub will cheat and even with higher ranked recruits will choke on schedule.(oh wait they already choked)
I also heard AM players think we win and that the best  place to eat is Chester's chicken in the Valaro truck stop. Tater logs are a staple food on the trailer park of the plains. Choke on that Trolls

[jlhogfan]

No more OT's with these guys.  Hogs win 28-7

[Sir Oinksalot]

UA LimaBean ....... 31

AU mal A zahn ..... 24

[Mr. Porkleone]

Bret 42
High School 27

[Letsroll1200]

28 -27 Arkansas. Can Arkansas stop the read option. Have struggled big time with this all season. Arkansas will need two or more turnovers against Auburn to win.

Big game for Keon Hatcher.

[wildhogman]

The difference is that what I posted is what they actually ran on down and distance over the course of 2 games vs. SEC opponents since the time that the Auburn posters on here said that they, "got their act together" on offense. I didn't make this up. They actually did run and pass that often on those downs and distances and as it turns out, it was very predictable.

I know the staff has identified those tendencies and has conveyed that to the kids. Now it is just a matter of what defensive sets are called to counter those tendencies and executing effectively to stop them. If you know that on 1st down there is a 91% chance that they are going to run, you probably don't make an alignment call that drops 7 into coverage. By the same token if you know they have a demonstrated history on 3rd down with a distance of anywhere from 4 to 10 or 10+ yards to go, that they have in the past thrown 100% of the time, you don't load up the box to defend the run, even if they come out in what appears to be a run set.

Auburn's offensive play calling has become predictable, if you pay attention to what they have been doing since Gus handed over the play calling duties.

Ahh my friend, I had to go back and figure out why you address me in this post lol. Apparently by mistake instead of repying to this thred in general, I replied to your post specifically and you took it as aimed at you being the analyst. My mistake. I simply meant I think we have had a sign/poster in the locker room of all the analyst who have picked us to lose. Motivation. I think we actually agree. Like you, our own analyst have seen the patterns on Aubbi offense, and I wager they have seen patterns in their defensive play calling. I think our coaches are worlds better then their coaches and that makes a big difference.

[5HOG5]

That's more evidence of how good Bama's defense is though so actually that proves the opposite of the poring the you're trying to make.

What is being overlooked as well is that there isnt alot of QB's like AA that are gonna throw 400 yards on Bama while being knocked down all game. Arkansas is getting better in areas every game! I predict Arkansas to pull out the win!

[TNhawgfan]

My heart says we win. My head says this isn't a great match up and we lose by a touchdown

[5HOG5]

Not buying into the auburn hype at all. Some of the worst teams we have ever had kicked that ass in Jordan. I think the John l. Smith team set a record for sacks in a game. Heck even bobby Petrino's first team won down there.
This 2016 Arkansas team is much much better than those two squads.
Everyone in the media is hyping auburn just like they were hyping ole miss last week,
Their one and only win of note is against les miles.

We will pull away in the 2nd half.
Ark- 38
Auburn- 21

Would love to see AA throw a career high in passing yards! Had 400 against Bama!

[Razorbacker79]

I think the line being so high against us is a product of the stats of our run defense against their run game being so overwhelming in Auburn's favor.  The key here, I think, is linebacker/safety play on both sides.  Therr linebackers might be better than ours, but appear to be their weak area of a very good defense.  The numbers contribute to the perception that our linebacker/safety play is very weak and will be exacerbated in the first half by the absence of Coley.  But I thought our linebacker play improved vastly last week, which is not being taken into account by the oddsmakers.  Don't know if Eugene is better than Greenlaw, maybe he is, maybe he's more prepared, I don't know, but I expect that improvement to continue and surprise everyone.  Would love to see Eugene have a breakout game. 

Just as I expect the improvement in our Oline to continue.

I also think our OC is better than their OC.  I predict he will attack their linebackers in both the run and passing game that will result in opening up the rest of the offense.  In short I expect both run games to be moderately successful, ours less than last week and theirs less than their average to this point.  Which kind of leaves it to which QB is better.  A lot has been made of Sean White being the most efficient in the league, but that doesn't necessarily have much to do with coming thru in the clutch.  I like our guy a lot better there.  And, yes, I expect to score 30 or more points on a very good defense.

Barring key injuries, I don't see either side running away with this game.  One thing that worries me is that some are discounting White's ability to run--seems like he did pretty good against us last year.  Hope our DC doesn't neglect that.  The other worry is that if it is a very close game, their kicker is better than ours.

Hogs 32
Tiggerbuzzards 27

[Dugann]

Arkansas 34 Auburn puddie cats 17

[Grunt]

Auburn will move the ball some and get some points. Our running game will produce some nice surprises with Whaley and Williams in break-out mode. Our passing game will be crisp with some variations on routes that haven't been seen. Look for a new twist to the safety valve that will frustrate and be hard to adjust to.

Hogs 38
Auburn 24

[RazorPiggie]

Man, I don't know. I haven't had a good feeling on any of the games this year ( minus La Tech,Tx St, and Alcorn).

[Ben]

Looks like the auburn fans on the thread were the smart ones with logic....

[oxbaker]

Weird feel for this game. Hogs honestly look better on paper to me overall. The Hogs offensive line will have to be on point as the matchup does not favor them though. First true SEC road game of the season for the Hogs.

However, the Razorback defensive line should have an advantage and this is the first game of the season where the defense will not see a dual threat QB. Auburn is a run first team and I don't see them having much success offensively without being able to establish the run. That plays to the strength of the Razorback defense.

The penalties per game were very low for the Hogs during the end of last season and I feel that should repeat itself. Still, it's Auburn and it's on the road so it will be close.

Arkansas 31

Auburn 26

Good call OP

[Ben]

We scored 30 on Bama D. Could happen to your Awbarn team. Arkansas O is terrific.

Oh.

[Ben]

In what universe is auburn scoring 42 points in an SEC game? Maybe if they played miss state again.

LOL

[Snouty]

In what universe is auburn scoring 42 points in an SEC game? Maybe if they played miss state again.

In our universe, I suppose.

[jm]

That was last week, cuz.

Well, cuz!

[jlhogfan]

No more OT's with these guys.  Hogs win 28-7

What had happened wuz

[AubFaninArk]

19 points is a pretty good thumping.

Wow...then what is 53???

[WDE44]

Great read. Ark fans sure know football. 

[dagnamit]

In our universe, I suppose.

You do understand that NWA Hog fans, the coach, and the players consider playing in Little Rock an away game. Yes, playing in Auburn is another universe to them.

[jkstock04]

In what universe is auburn scoring 42 points in an SEC game? Maybe if they played miss state again.

Probably the most epic post in the entire thread.

Not just this thread...but go back to a week ago and read what most people were saying. Mind boggling.

We should've learned after the Bama game what happens when this team goes up against a smash mouth physical style team. That huge point spread made this game stink to high heaven all week long...and for good reason.