Getting Ready for Oaklawn

[hogoffate]

I got the Oaklawn Handicapper and Oaklawn Handicapper Trainer Detail for Christmas.
This gives me something to read over the holidays along with my other books.

Looking forward to the meet.

Hope everyone prospers this meet.

Good Luck to all

[PineyWoodsRooter]

I got my Oaklawn Park 2013 Handicapper last Saturday and have been putting together
different sets of stats to prepare me for this year. I'll post some of what I came up with that might be of interest and use to other members. I hope I can get it to line up.

Oaklawn Trainers's Sprint & Route Win and In The Money Percent for the last 3 seasons at Oaklawn Some trainers just do a lot better in one than the other.
-------------------------------------Sprints-----------------------------Routes
Asmussen, Steve---------------------22/51------------------------------23/56
Autrey, Cody-------------------------18/41------------------------------16/52
Becker, Scott-------------------------15/45-----------------------------10/33
Biehler, Mike--------------------------8/53-------------------------------13/32
Bonde, Jeff---------------------------27/57-------------------------------7/33
Broberg, Karl--------------------------12/49------------------------------11/22
Bruner, Jack---------------------------20/52-------------------------------X/X
Caldwell, J.R.--------------------------11/34------------------------------15/53
Calhoun, Bret--------------------------25/53------------------------------13/43
Cates, Al------------------------------7/33-------------------------------18/46
Cox, Brad---------------------------30/60---------------------------------27/64 Fired by Midwest since last year
Cox, John------------------------------15/33------------------------------17/57
Dodgen, James-------------------------27/64------------------------------14/43
Fires, William---------------------------12/38------------------------------13/44
Frost, Jack-----------------------------15/33-------------------------------0/21
Hall, John------------------------------14/44-------------------------------6/22
Hartlage, Gary "Red Dog"----------------0/42-------------------------------18/46
Hobby, Steve--------------------------16/50-------------------------------15/47
Howard, W.T.--------------------------10/34--------------------------------7/36
Ice, Tim--------------------------------9/35-------------------------------14/25
Jackson, Richard-----------------------13/39-------------------------------10/33
Lauer, Michael-------------------------10/38--------------------------------20/54
Lukas, D.W.----------------------------10/36-------------------------------20/45
Martin, Joe-----------------------------13/35-------------------------------17/43
Martin, Tim-----------------------------9/27---------------------------------5/23
Mason, Ingrid--------------------------22/51--------------------------------14/43
McPeek, Ken---------------------------0/8----------------------------------21/42
Milligan, Allen--------------------------15/36--------------------------------13/39
Moquett, Ron--------------------------12/35--------------------------------10/36
Morse, Randy--------------------------14/44--------------------------------13/38
Ness, Jamie----------------------------31/55--------------------------------16/46
Peitz, Daniel----------------------------17/37--------------------------------22/43
Petalino, Joe----------------------------7/35----------------------------------4/11
Prather, J.H.----------------------------5/24---------------------------------20/33
Richards, Chris--------------------------21/44--------------------------------17/37
Roberts, Stanley------------------------7/27----------------------------------7/26
Robertson, McLean---------------------18/48---------------------------------16/50
Salazar, Laffit--------------------------13/13----------------------------------40/60
Smith, Kenny---------------------------11/42-----------------------------------8/30
Tomlinson, Mike------------------------16/35----------------------------------17/43
Von Hemel, Donnie K.--------------------12/31---------------------------------13/45
Whited, David--------------------------10/34-----------------------------------8/32
Whiting, Lynn---------------------------14/44---------------------------------29/46
Williamson, Brian-----------------------10/20----------------------------------21/53
Witt, Ernie------------------------------18/37---------------------------------0/22

[PineyWoodsRooter]

Oaklawn Trainers with minimum 6 wins and Go To Jockeys 2012 Season

Asmussen, Steve--------------Berry 15/55, Nakatani 13/41, Quinonez 5/32
Autrey, Cody-------------------Berry 4/17, Cintron 5/37
Bonde, Jeff---------------------Marquez 3/15, Court 2/10, AOJ (All other jockeys) 2/13
Broberg, Karl------------------Wade 5/42, AOJ 1/12
Caldwell, J.R.------------------McNeil 7/68, AOJ 3/23
Calhoun, Bret-----------------Berry 6/34, Quinonez 4/13, AOJ 3/25
Cates, Al------------------------Birzer 4/11, AOJ 3/32
Cox, Brad----------------------Ocampo 15/52, Marquez 4/9
Frost, Jack---------------------Santana 3/12, Mello 3/30, AOJ 0/7
Hobby, Steve-----------------Marquez 8/31, Court 3/8, AOJ 9/42
Jackson, Richard-------------Cintron 2/9, Court 2/12, AOJ 3/36
Lukas, D. W.-------------------Thompson 6/55, AOJ 1/38
Martin, Joseph----------------Vazquez 10/52, Gonzalez 8/35
Martin, Tim--------------------Cintron 5/37, AOJ 4/60
Mason, Ingrid------------------Diego 10/58
Milligan, Allen-----------------Escobar 9/68, Berry 5/32,Thompson 10/37, Quinonez 3/4,
Moquett, Ron------------------Santana 4/45, AOJ 6/73
Morse, Randy-------------------Court 3/11, AOJ 6/84
Ness, Jamie----------------------Birzer 20/62
Richard, Chris-------------------Thompson 8/16, Wade 6/29
Roberts, Stanley-----------------Birzer 6/32, AOJ 5/73
Robertson, McLean-------------Berry 8/39, AOJ 3/45
Smith, Kenny---------------------Laviolette 8/67, AOJ 1/26
Tomlinson, Mike-----------------Vasquez 2/3, Morales 2/10, AOJ 3/21
Von Hemel, Donnie K-----------Quinonez 8/46, Berry 2/5, AOJ 3/30
Whited, David--------------------Berry 7/39, AOJ 2/35

[PineyWoodsRooter]

Oaklawn Jockey's Sprint & Route Win and In the Money % for the last 3 Years

If I asked you to name the Top 4 Oaklawn Route jockeys by percent of wins for the last 3 years most would have Terry Thompson in their Top 4. You would be correct because Thompson has won 20% and been in the money with 44% of his Route rides the last 3 years at Oaklawn. Very few of you would get the next 3 correct however. C.H. Marquez Jr is 17%W 43% ItM, Gabriel Saez is 16% W 46% ItM, Israel Ocampo is 16% W 41% ItM and Joe Johnson is 16% W 37% ItM riding Route races at Oaklawn the last 3 years. But don't bet Joe Johnson in a Sprint race because he only wins 6% of the time in Sprints at Oaklawn. Below is a chart of the Oaklawn jockeys and their Sprint and Route Win and In the money percents.
------------------------------------------W/I$------------------ W/I$
Jockey------------------------------------Sprint-----------------Route
Berry, Cliff--------------------------------21/46-----------------13/43
Birzer, A----------------------------------16/38-----------------10/31
Borel, C-----------------------------------16/38-----------------14/43
Cintron, A---------------------------------12/40------------------7/36
Compton, P--------------------------------6/23-------------------7/36
Court, J-----------------------------------12/37-----------------11/37
Diego, I-----------------------------------10/35-----------------10/32
Escobar, M---------------------------------8/28-----------------11/26
Gonzalez, C-------------------------------10/27------------------9/22
Johnson, Joe-------------------------------6/22------------------16/37
Joubert, J----------------------------------3/17-------------------5/21
Laviolette, S-------------------------------5/25------------------12/35
Marquez, C-------------------------------18/46------------------17/43
McNeil, B----------------------------------6/31-------------------7/27
Mello, D-----------------------------------9/24-------------------2/26
Morales, R--------------------------------11/22------------------12/32
Murphy, G---------------------------------7/28--------------------4/27
Ocampo, I---------------------------------14/38-----------------16/41
Quinonez, L-------------------------------10/34------------------12/39
Rosier, C-----------------------------------6/25-------------------8/27
Saez, G-----------------------------------12/38------------------16/46
Santana, R---------------------------------8/31------------------12/35
Shino, K------------------------------------4/18-------------------6/17
Thompson, T------------------------------14/38-------------------20/44
Vasquez, R--------------------------------13/37--------------------9/33
Wade, L-----------------------------------12/37-------------------10/29

[PineyWoodsRooter]

Oaklawn First Time Starter (FTS) Trainers

Possibly because of the time of the year that the meet is run Oaklawn usually does not have many FTS win each year. Below is a list of trainers that have had some success in the past. It's also good to know the Sire's FST win rate before you make your final decision and often as not the tote board will give you a hint.

Anderson, Doug------2/7--29% Win 57% ItM
Autrey, Cody--------1/2--50% Win 100% ItM
Bonde, Jeff----------1/2---50% Win 50% ItM
Dodgen, James------1/3---33% Win 67% ItM
Fires, William--------2/12--17% win 33% ItM
Morris, Randy--------2/8---25% Win 25% ItM
Reed, Eric-----------2/4---50% Win 75% ItM
Wirth, Kenneth—----1/2---50% Win 100% ItM

Also note Steve Hobby is only 1/18 with FTS but 10/18 or 56% have been ItM.
Michael Lauer likewise is only 1/7 with FTS but 5/7 or 57% have been ItM.
Steve Asmussen is a terrible 1/20 with FST but 10/20 or 50% have been ItM
If their last name is Von Hemel avoid their FTS.The 3 are a combined 2/47 and are 13/47 27% ItM

[hogoffate]

love the info, I'm checking out this info along with mine,
I love the trainer/jockey team angle.  Trainers just trust some jocks better than others;
16 days..

[jdelo77]

I have the same set for Gulfstream ... Let me know if anyone wants them

[PineyWoodsRooter]

Longshot Trainers to Watch at Oaklawn

Anderson,Doug-------------$28.60 average win payoff, Sprints, back in 15-30 days, 1st start of meet, Owner Cathy or Roger Anderson

Caldwell, J.R.----------------$15.20 average win payoff, back in 15 to 35 days, McNeil rides, 2nd start of meet

Compton, Greg-------------$18.50 average win payoff, back in 15 to 40 days, down in class, 2nd start of meet, 11/1 to 20/1 odds

Fires, William---------------$16.80 average win payoff, back in 15 to 30 days, Court rides, turnback in distance

Frost, Jack-------------------$17.60 average win payoff, Sprints, down in class, Greater than 20/1 odds

Hall, John--------------------$49.70 average win payoff, Sprints, back in 15 to 30 days, Marquez rides, 2nd Off Layoff

Hornsby, Tammy-----------$41.50 average win payoff, Routes, Kurtweiler rides, Stretch out from sprint

Irvin, Ralph------------------$30.50 average win payoff, Sprint, Maiden Claiming or bottom level claiming, Quinonez or Shino rides, Drop in Class, back in less than 15 days

Martin, Tim------------------$24.20 average win payoff, Sprint, Maiden Claiming, 2nd or 3rd off layoff, Cintron rides, back in 7 to 28 days

Milligan, Allen--------------$17.60 average win payoff, Maiden Claiming or MSW at 6F or 1 Mile, Escobar or Quinonez ride, 1st off a 50 day or greater days layoff .

O'Briant, Bobby--------------$77.40 average win payoff, Arky Bred, Maiden Claiming, 1st off layoff or FTS, One Horse Stable that has won 1 race a year for last 3 years at odds of 37/1, 38/1 and 44/1. Usually on runs about 7 races a year

[PineyWoodsRooter]

Oaklawn Top Trainers 1st Race Off a 30 Day or More Layoff by Win and ItM Percentage
Witt, Ernie----------------------30/47
Williamson, Brian-----------------27/64
Ness, Jamie----------------------27/47
Calhoun, Bret--------------------24/55
Hartlage, Gary-------------------24/49
Lauer, Michael-------------------23/53
Asmussen, Steve----------------23/49
Peitz, Daniel---------------------22/39
Hobby, Steve--------------------21/52
Autrey, Cody--------------------21/41
Richards, Chris-------------------19/37
Morse, Randy--------------------18/53

Oaklawn Trainers 2nd Race Off a 30 Day or More Layoff by Win and ItM Percentage
Ness, Jamie----------------------40/57
Whiting, Lynn--------------------30/50
Hall, John------------------------28/50
Asmussen, Steve-----------------25/69
Calhoun, Bret---------------------24/55
Robertson, McLean----------------21/56
Mason, Ingrid---------------------21/39
Richards, Chris--------------------20/35
Baker, James---------------------18/55
Lukas, D.W.----------------------18/43
Von Hemel, Donnie K.-------------18/42
Becker, Scott--------------------17/50



Oaklawn Trainers 3rd Race Off a 30 Day or More Layoff by Win and ItM Percentage
Calhoun, Bret---------------------39/72
Cox, John-------------------------36/64
Cline, Leon------------------------36/45
Richards, Chris---------------------28/60
Ness, Jamie------------------------24/57
Robertson, McLean-----------------22/49
Milligan, Allen----------------------22/44
Ritchey, Tim-----------------------18/55
Jackson, Richard-------------------18/45
Von Hemel, Donnie K.---------------16/63

[Rendezvous Cook]

Good info.  Thanks for posting. 

[HawgFan70]

Where did you guys get these Oaklawn Handicapper books?

[hogoffate]

http://www.proghandicap.com/

[jdelo77]

Did this include the 40% angle ? I know some of there other stuff has it ..

[hogoffate]

yes, 40% angle, karma moves, hare and tortoises, etc...
its all there

[jdelo77]

Nice .... I don't want to ask to much Can someone post the 40% angle for Oaklawn , if not I will trade the Gulfstream 29.99 pack ( includes everything that's been posted here ) for that one angle ...

[PineyWoodsRooter]

Trainer Stats which have produced 40% winners or greater from the past 3 Oaklawn seasons.

Asmussen, Steve------- Making 1st start off an OP claim-------3/6 W-- 6/6 $
Autrey, Cody-------------1st Start off 90+ day layoff----------4/9 W—5/9 $
Calhoun, Bret------------3rd start off layoff-------------------7/18 W—13/18 $
Calhoun, Bret------------1st start off 60-90 day layoff---------4/10 W—5/10 $
Fires, William------------Turning back in distance---------------4/9 W—5/9 $
Jones, Larry--------------1st start off a 30-60 day layoff-------4/10 W—6/10 $
Jones, Larry--------------Allowance races or 40K and up claim---7/17 W—13/17 $
Margolis, Steve---------Dirt Sprints-----------------------------5/13 W—6/13 $
Martin, Joseph----------ALW races or Claim 40K and up----------7/18 W—10/18 $
Mason, Ingrid------------Turning back in distance---------------3/4 W—3/4 $
Ness, Jamie---------------2nd start off 30+ layoff-------------12/30 W—17/30 $
Ness, Jamie---------------Back in 14 or less days---------------8/21 W—11/21 $
Ness, Jamie--------------Moving up in class-------------------11/29 W—17/29 $
Richards, Chris------------With Terry Thompson riding-----------8/16 W –9/16 $

[PineyWoodsRooter]

Oaklawn Arkansas Bred Trainers

Those that play Oaklawn know that each race card usually includes one or more Arkansas bred races. Below is a list of the top trainers for the last 3 years at Oaklawn in these Arkansas bred only races.

Cates, Al---------6/41---15% Win 54% ItM
Hobby, Steve----9/25----36% Win 84% ItM
Jackson, Richard—11/58--19% WIN 41% ItM
Martin, Joe-------15/102—15% WIN 38% ItM
Martin, Tim-------10/71---14% WIN 27% ItM
Riecken, Bruce—--3/10----30% WIN 40% ItM
Smith, Kenny-----9/58-----16% WIN 43% ItM
Witt, Ernie-------9/56-----16% WIN 39% ItM

[jdelo77]

Nice !! Thanks

[PineyWoodsRooter]

Number of days since last race. If you know something about the trainers at the meet this is an important number. At Oaklawn very few trainers win with horses coming back from a 100 days or more layoff. Steve Hobby is the "King" of this move at Oaklawn. He won last year with horses coming back in 156,163,173,201,360,473 and 673 days. Take a special note that all of these were 6 furlong sprints. In fact only 3 horses won all of last meet at a route off layoffs of 100 days or more. Stanley Roberts won with layoffs of 118,145,150 and 172 days. Again all were sprints and all came in the first 3 weeks of the meet. Other trainers that won off 100 or more days layoffs were Cody Autrey 179,218 and 228 Again early in the meet. Richard Jackson 117,172 and 530 days. Joe Martin 141,173 and 252 days. Ray Shumaker 131, 238 and 554 days. All in the first few weeks of the meet. Donnie K. Von Hemel 111,187 and 268 days. Bottom line if the horse is coming off a layoff of 100 days or more at Oaklawn for me to bet it the race must be a sprint and I'd like to see one of these trainers. You will see the "Wound Up Tight" trainer workout pattern in almost all cases with the long layoff winners.

Now for the other end of the DSL range. Allen Milligan has won in the last 3 years with 20 horses coming back in less than 16 days. Almost all of Jamie Ness's winners were coming back from 7 to 40 days. Steve Asmussen and Bret Calhoun 21 to 60 days. Chris Richards 14 to 45 days . Tom Broberg had 6 winners last year coming back in 15 or less days. Richard Jackson had 5 winners coming back in 7 to 14 days.McLean Robinson's horses run best coming back in 7 to 30 days.