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Trade advice sought...

Started by jayhog, March 30, 2005, 12:11:19 pm

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jayhog

I just traded Carlos Beltran for Aubrey Huff and Jimmy Rollins.  Any thoughts on whether or not this was good/bad???

razormatt


 

Porkahontas

Again, all depends on needs and what else you had on your roster.

If you're loaded with outfielders and lacking at SS and 3rd (or 1st, where Huff could play both), it's probably a good move.

If you've already got Furcal, Tejada, or Jeter at SS, I'd not like the move.

Personally, I'd rather have Beltran over both of them simply because he'll get you close to 40 HR's and 40 SB's by himself instead of needing two positions to get those types of numbers, but Huff could have a big year this year and Rollins is underrated, so it's not a bad trade by any means.

WindyCityHog

Dirty....I think you did VERY well.  I love Carlos Beltran, but Shea Stadium has a way of "dumbing down" some great players.....and as good as Beltran is, I think a lot of his "love" comes from his playoff performance  last year.....He's a great player.....5-tool....

....but Huff is very underrated....The biggest thing is his position-versatility....That is HUGE.  He's a legit 30, 100. .300 guy.....and Rollins is solid....

You did well.

big dread hog

I think you did well, but the real test is how Bartlett or Perlatta plus Beltran compares to Huff and Rollins. Beltran actually will do well at Shea, better than thought which is why I went ahead and did that deal. I really like Huff position flexibility, and I got him be accident not intention because I screwed up the computer for about 3 rounds which yielded Cabrera and Huff... now Crawford and Beltran.  Rollins will run a lot this yr, but will not match Crawford and Beltran.  I had to sell myself on Beltran and I did by statistical means:

2/25/2005 -- How will Carlos Beltran fare as a Met? He was an easy consensus as the top free agent hitter on the offseason market, and the perception was that he would end up in New York. However, most thought that the Bronx, and not Queens, would be Beltran's destination for 2005 and beyond. Now, as a member of the Mets, how will he fare in Shea Stadium as opposed to Kaufmann Stadium in KC or Minute Maid Park in HOU?

In assessing Beltran's past performance, it is important to note the park effects where he has played. At KC, Kaufmann had long played as a pitcher's park before the Royals moved the fences in before the 1995 season. Since that time, Kaufmann has played as much more of a hitter's park up until last year, when the fences were moved back. Minute Maid Park in HOU has of course played very solidly as a hitter's park during its five-year history. And then there's Shea, known as a pitcher's park. How exactly do these parks stack up in comparison over the last four years?

Years      Park  HR Index  H Index
=========  ====  ========  =======
2000-2001  KC    106       112
           HOU   123       104
           NYM    86        94   
----------------------------------
2002-2003  KC    120       115
           HOU   104       104
           NYM    96        99
----------------------------------
2004       KC     71        98
           HOU   108        99
           NYM    80       103
Beltran had a career high in HRs last year with 38, which most people would look at and say that the increase was due primarily to playing 90 G in HOU. But, although HOU was a better hitter's park in 2004 than either KC or NYM, it is not as extreme as most people think. Also, Beltran's AB/HR rate in KC was 17.7 last year, as opposed to 14.5 in HOU, and he hit for a worse average in HOU (.258) than in KC (.278). So park effects alone cannot explain Beltran's jump in power this past season. If you project Beltran's whole year in KC based on his 69 G there, his HR rate would extrapolate to 35 HR in the 159 G he played.

More on point than where Beltran played is how he developed as a hitter in 2004. His PX (194) and SX (167) were both career highs, as was his batting eye (0.91). And his .326 xBA suggests that his .267 BA was definitely lower than it should have been. Beltran will turn 28 in April, so he is at his peak performance level right now. Thus, Shea or no Shea, Beltran's numbers should not suffer from the move as it really looks like he is coming into his own as a hitter, and he should give Mets fans something to cheer for several years.

From the Batting Buyer's Guide




How well Beltran projects is the key, Rollins and Huff are more definte in their anticipated production. It was a good trade, kinda surprised I did it because I was very pleased with Huff and Rollins and kinda hate any Met uniform wearing player known to man. Oh well, gotta give up some favoritism to play fantasy baseball.