Honest predictions for Texas A&M

[hawgsalot]

Looking at Arkansas' 2 games against more legit opponents, the Hogs have averaged .92 points for every minute that they hold the ball, while our opponents have averaged 1.2 points per minute of possession.

Using the same model for A&M, they have averaged 1.2 points for every minute they have held the ball while their opponents have averaged just .62 points per minute of possession.

If the Hogs can log 33 or more minutes of possession time, they should win. Of course there are a lot of other factors to be observed for this game (turnovers, sacks, TFL, big plays, etc) but looking at it purely from a ball control standpoint, the other team can't score if they don't have the ball.

Another thing is, A&M has relied upon and kicked 9 FG's in 3 games. Without those FG's they only beat UCLA by 3 and they don't beat Auburn (15 points from 5 FG's). Big Dan Skipper might play a big role in this game on FG defense.

When you have an overtime game it screws the above averages up.

[Tsarcasm]

35-28 Hogs  :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback: :razorback:

[YtownHog]

23-21 Hogs.  Baker pins a punt at the 1 with under a minute to play.  Wise and Ledbetter meet in the middle again to sack TK for the game winning safety. 

Heard it here first!

[96Ag]

I'm an Aggie fan.  Graduated in '96.  Haven't watched any Arky games. 

We've played (IMHO) 2 legit P5 programs and 1 scrub.  At Auburn is not an easy place to play. 

We dominated UCLA (for most of the game) with our defense.  Similar against Auburn. 

Our defense hasn't given up over 28 points in 10-12 games.  (even 'Bama last year - the offense gave up 21 points on 3 pick sixes). 

Trevor Knight isn't the most accurate passer, but he hasn't made mistakes, and has made plays with his legs when he needs to.

We are actually 2nd in the conference in rushing offense, 3rd in passing, and 1st in total offense. 

And we are #2 in defense in yards per play that we give up. 

Arky will be amped for the game, I have no doubt.  Our defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. 

Arky hasn't played the toughest schedule so far. 

Should be a good game, but I expect us to come out on top. 

[ARKANSAS@HOGS]

41-38 HOGS  OT

[hogcard1964]

I'm an Aggie fan.  Graduated in '96.  Haven't watched any Arky games. 

We've played (IMHO) 2 legit P5 programs and 1 scrub.  At Auburn is not an easy place to play. 

We dominated UCLA (for most of the game) with our defense.  Similar against Auburn. 

Our defense hasn't given up over 28 points in 10-12 games.  (even 'Bama last year - the offense gave up 21 points on 3 pick sixes). 

Trevor Knight isn't the most accurate passer, but he hasn't made mistakes, and has made plays with his legs when he needs to.

We are actually 2nd in the conference in rushing offense, 3rd in passing, and 1st in total offense. 

And we are #2 in defense in yards per play that we give up. 

Arky will be amped for the game, I have no doubt.  Our defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. 

Arky hasn't played the toughest schedule so far. 

Should be a good game, but I expect us to come out on top.

Unfortunately, I kind of agree.

So ya'll don't want to fire Sumlin again?

[96Ag]

Oh, I'd say its still 50/50 want to / don't want to. 

I think he's learned from his mistakes, and hired a great defensive coordinator and a decent offensive coordinator.  The play of our QB's last year (sans against you guys and State) was horrible last year. 

Most of our fans are in a "wait and see" approach. 

[elksnort]

Before reading any posts, I will give my take.

We've only scored 21 and 28 in regulation against the good teams. And 7 of the 28 was a pick 6. So, our offense has really only scored 21 ppg. Are we holding A&M to 20 or less? Looking at it this way can make me worry.

I think it is up to our offense to win this game. Our defense just needs to not give up too many big plays. And yes, this might mean no press coverage that most of us would like to see. Keep the Aggies in front of us and let our defensive line do their job.

Toby Baker and Cole Hedlund can certainly play a big role in this game also.

How well we do on 1st and 2nd downs I think will help determine if we win this game or not.

[Biggus Piggus]

I'm an Aggie fan.  Graduated in '96.  Haven't watched any Arky games. 

We've played (IMHO) 2 legit P5 programs and 1 scrub.  At Auburn is not an easy place to play. 

We dominated UCLA (for most of the game) with our defense.  Similar against Auburn. 

Our defense hasn't given up over 28 points in 10-12 games.  (even 'Bama last year - the offense gave up 21 points on 3 pick sixes). 

Trevor Knight isn't the most accurate passer, but he hasn't made mistakes, and has made plays with his legs when he needs to.

We are actually 2nd in the conference in rushing offense, 3rd in passing, and 1st in total offense. 

And we are #2 in defense in yards per play that we give up. 

Arky will be amped for the game, I have no doubt.  Our defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. 

Arky hasn't played the toughest schedule so far. 

Should be a good game, but I expect us to come out on top. 

Who is "Arky?"

Aggy's offense has been really weird, which is what one would expect after running off several excellent QB talents and having to do a diving save with a grad transfer who got beaten out at OU by a former Texas Tech walk-on.

Knight's 2-20 passing on third downs = a mind-blowing statistic. It suggests that if Aggy's offense gets in an obvious passing situation, the protection is porous.

Aggy has a long tradition of being less than the sum of its parts. I don't know how you guys ever have any optimism about anything. The 2014-15 record -- 16-10 -- was more of the same.

It is pretty hard to contend that Aggy's defensive performance against UCLA and Auburn was any great accomplishment. BYU held UCLA to 17 points. The Bruins had 50 yards rushing on 34 carries in that game. Auburn's offense is a complete disaster.

Aggy's offense had 15 possessions and scored two touchdowns at Auburn. Holee crap.

Before you go lauding Auburn's effort against Clemson, they (Clemson) went on to beat Troy 30-24 the next week. Something is wrong with Clemson.

This is the first time ever that Aggy has had to play Arkansas the week after an SEC road game. Arkansas is coming off a nice practice game, completely shutting down a spread-option offense that had scored 56 at Ohio (which lost 28-19 at Tennessee last weekend).

Comparative scores are crap indicators.

Arkansas is 9-1 in its last 10 games. Aggy is 6-5 in its last 11.

Frig 'em, or whatever. Glad you came by to play.

[5HOG5]

I'm an Aggie fan.  Graduated in '96.  Haven't watched any Arky games. 

We've played (IMHO) 2 legit P5 programs and 1 scrub.  At Auburn is not an easy place to play. 

We dominated UCLA (for most of the game) with our defense.  Similar against Auburn. 

Our defense hasn't given up over 28 points in 10-12 games.  (even 'Bama last year - the offense gave up 21 points on 3 pick sixes). 

Trevor Knight isn't the most accurate passer, but he hasn't made mistakes, and has made plays with his legs when he needs to.

We are actually 2nd in the conference in rushing offense, 3rd in passing, and 1st in total offense. 

And we are #2 in defense in yards per play that we give up. 

Arky will be amped for the game, I have no doubt.  Our defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. 

Arky hasn't played the toughest schedule so far. 

Should be a good game, but I expect us to come out on top.

It will be a good game! And your right Ag96, arkansas has not played the toughest games yet but like A&M they have knocked off a ranked team already. And i agree about auburn they are not an easy team to beat but Arkansas has been winning against them the last few years. I expect this game to go down very close again to the end of the game. The difference with Arkansas is they are very much different than the last few years and they will absolutely not quit as the country got a lesson in Forth Worth, and another thing Arkansas is getting better every game which will be bad for other teams. Never be fooled that Arkansas doesn't know they haven't won in Arlington in a couple years. They will be ready! Hogs Win!

This would have been the perfect time to have the college gameday crew in a neutral site in Arlington. #10 Texas A&M vs #17 Arkansas what a shame!

[Polecat]

I'm an Aggie fan.  Graduated in '96.  Haven't watched any Arky games. 

We've played (IMHO) 2 legit P5 programs and 1 scrub.  At Auburn is not an easy place to play. 

We dominated UCLA (for most of the game) with our defense.  Similar against Auburn. 

Our defense hasn't given up over 28 points in 10-12 games.  (even 'Bama last year - the offense gave up 21 points on 3 pick sixes). 

Trevor Knight isn't the most accurate passer, but he hasn't made mistakes, and has made plays with his legs when he needs to.

We are actually 2nd in the conference in rushing offense, 3rd in passing, and 1st in total offense. 

And we are #2 in defense in yards per play that we give up. 

Arky will be amped for the game, I have no doubt.  Our defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. 

Arky hasn't played the toughest schedule so far. 

Should be a good game, but I expect us to come out on top. 

Weak. Just try to keep your QB from transferring before kickoff

[TexHog188]

Denfense has best game to date. Hogs win by 4, 28-24.

[96Ag]

Who is "Arky?"

Aggy's offense has been really weird, which is what one would expect after running off several excellent QB talents and having to do a diving save with a grad transfer who got beaten out at OU by a former Texas Tech walk-on.

Knight's 2-20 passing on third downs = a mind-blowing statistic. It suggests that if Aggy's offense gets in an obvious passing situation, the protection is porous.

Aggy has a long tradition of being less than the sum of its parts. I don't know how you guys ever have any optimism about anything. The 2014-15 record -- 16-10 -- was more of the same.

It is pretty hard to contend that Aggy's defensive performance against UCLA and Auburn was any great accomplishment. BYU held UCLA to 17 points. The Bruins had 50 yards rushing on 34 carries in that game. Auburn's offense is a complete disaster.

Aggy's offense had 15 possessions and scored two touchdowns at Auburn. Holee crap.

Before you go lauding Auburn's effort against Clemson, they (Clemson) went on to beat Troy 30-24 the next week. Something is wrong with Clemson.

This is the first time ever that Aggy has had to play Arkansas the week after an SEC road game. Arkansas is coming off a nice practice game, completely shutting down a spread-option offense that had scored 56 at Ohio (which lost 28-19 at Tennessee last weekend).

Comparative scores are crap indicators.

Arkansas is 9-1 in its last 10 games. Aggy is 6-5 in its last 11.

Frig 'em, or whatever. Glad you came by to play.

So, by your logic, comparative records in the last 10 or so games are crap indicators as well, since Arky lost their 2 best RB's, their quality QB, and some OL members. 

A&M isn't the same team as last year either.  Yes, we suck at 3rd down conversions, but our defense has bailed us out, and we still won by double digits at Auburn - not an easy thing to do.  We have a new OC, so a transition period is to be expected. 

I haven't posted anything inflammatory - just my opinion in a very respectful manner.

[DiamondHogFan]

I'm an Aggie fan.  Graduated in '96.  Haven't watched any Arky games. 

We've played (IMHO) 2 legit P5 programs and 1 scrub.  At Auburn is not an easy place to play. 

We dominated UCLA (for most of the game) with our defense.  Similar against Auburn. 

Our defense hasn't given up over 28 points in 10-12 games.  (even 'Bama last year - the offense gave up 21 points on 3 pick sixes). 

Trevor Knight isn't the most accurate passer, but he hasn't made mistakes, and has made plays with his legs when he needs to.

We are actually 2nd in the conference in rushing offense, 3rd in passing, and 1st in total offense. 

And we are #2 in defense in yards per play that we give up. 

Arky will be amped for the game, I have no doubt.  Our defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. 

Arky hasn't played the toughest schedule so far. 

Should be a good game, but I expect us to come out on top.

He is due.  We will make it 3 games in a row with a pick 6.

[a0ashle]

He is due.  We will make it 3 games in a row with a pick 6.

He sure floats them out there.

[Biggus Piggus]

So, by your logic, comparative records in the last 10 or so games are crap indicators as well, since Arky lost their 2 best RB's, their quality QB, and some OL members. 

Most definitely. Comparing scores tells you nothing. Hell, the 24/7 Sports guy used a formula based on game outcomes to predict that Arkansas would lose to Texas State last week. Crazy huh?

In the past two seasons, Aggy's offense started the season with hair on fire, then went into the Arkansas game and struggled to get to overtime.

This season, Aggy's offense is a field goal machine. What are we to expect next? If history is any guide, this will be your coming-out party. Opposites and all.

I went into this year noting the staff turnover at College Station and the weird QB exodus, and thought that Noel Mazzone was, at best, a mercenary hire. The Oline coach hire was just a patch job, and man that guy is a mess.

But John Chavis (another mercenary) is a really good defensive coach, and that seems to be the main angle for an Aggy team that has to depend on a grad transfer QB and a really green Oline. Arkansas has its best Dline in a long time, just like Aggy.

If I were you, I'd feel good about the fact that Arkansas still does not know who all is going to start on the Oline this weekend, while Aggy has the pass rush kings. We do not know what the line is going to be like. No idea. Either somebody is doing brilliant wizardry, or they screwed up months ago and only now have been forced by reality to redo everything.

Plus, Arkansas's special teams are mostly fouled up, while you have great returners. And what should be a three-headed running back monster is two heads short.

The QB matchup is unfavorable for you. That could be an important factor.

[hawginbigd1]

So, by your logic, comparative records in the last 10 or so games are crap indicators as well, since Arky lost their 2 best RB's, their quality QB, and some OL members. 

A&M isn't the same team as last year either.  Yes, we suck at 3rd down conversions, but our defense has bailed us out, and we still won by double digits at Auburn - not an easy thing to do.  We have a new OC, so a transition period is to be expected. 

I haven't posted anything inflammatory - just my opinion in a very respectful manner.

I failed to see anything inflammatory about Biggus' post either, I think he pointed out some flaws with A&M we are going to exploit. I have posted elsewhere I am confident we win because we have a much better QB! I was thrilled to see ya'll put your eggs in the Trevor Knight basket. Kyle Allen and the other guy scare me, Knight not so much!

[McKdaddy]

I haven't posted anything inflammatory - just my opinion in a very respectful manner.

Appreciated.

[Hogball58]

The Razorbacks are due a win against them  Hogs 45  Aggies 16   Why not us. GO HOGS!

[saintchristopher]

38-33 hogs.... F@$K aTm

[KCHOGFAN]

So, by your logic, comparative records in the last 10 or so games are crap indicators as well, since Arky lost their 2 best RB's, their quality QB, and some OL members. 

A&M isn't the same team as last year either.  Yes, we suck at 3rd down conversions, but our defense has bailed us out, and we still won by double digits at Auburn - not an easy thing to do.  We have a new OC, so a transition period is to be expected. 

I haven't posted anything inflammatory - just my opinion in a very respectful manner.

Please quit with the Arky references

[TuskFexas]

I keep seeing that A&M is a bad matchup for us. I think we are equally a bad matchup for them.
If we can avoid penalties on offense the aggie D will have a very hard time getting us off the field.

Both offenses should be able to move the ball down the field almost at will.
The key to this game will be red zone execution. Who scores TDs and who has to settle for FGs.

28-20 hogs  :razorback:

[hoglady]

I felt a lot better about this game 2 weeks ago after the TCU game.
All that jostling around last week on the Oline  - I know they were just trying different combos to improve the line play but it's just hard to have a lot of confidence against A&M with an unsettled Oline.
Our Oline will be tested this weekend like they haven't been tested all year.
Games a tossup that will most likely be decided by that matchup.
Our defense can't hold up if our offense doesn't shorten the game by staying on the field.

[phadedhawg]

Put me on the "it's a bad matchup" wagon.  That's how I see it on paper.

But stats, sometimes don't matter, after you punch someone in the mouth.  I'm hoping Saturday is one of those magic days where good players find another level and we see something special happen.  That's what I will be cheering for every snap of the game. 

[McKdaddy]

We say Aggy, he says Arky.  Meh.

[razorbucz]

I'm an Aggie fan.  Graduated in '96.  Haven't watched any Arky games. 

We've played (IMHO) 2 legit P5 programs and 1 scrub.  At Auburn is not an easy place to play. 

We dominated UCLA (for most of the game) with our defense.  Similar against Auburn. 

Our defense hasn't given up over 28 points in 10-12 games.  (even 'Bama last year - the offense gave up 21 points on 3 pick sixes). 

Trevor Knight isn't the most accurate passer, but he hasn't made mistakes, and has made plays with his legs when he needs to.

We are actually 2nd in the conference in rushing offense, 3rd in passing, and 1st in total offense. 

And we are #2 in defense in yards per play that we give up. 

Arky will be amped for the game, I have no doubt.  Our defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. 

Arky hasn't played the toughest schedule so far. 

Should be a good game, but I expect us to come out on top.

I'm pretty sure that both TCU and La Tech could beat both UCLA and Auburn.

Auburn is going to be dead last in the SEC (even Vandy is going to beat them).

Trevor Knight < Kenny Hill

A&M hasn't played the toughest part of its schedule either!!!

[New Mexico Hog]

42-17 hogs

[Hawgzinbowlz]

The entire Razorback program is d@m& sick and tired of losing to A&M.

Hogs get 'er done 28-24.

" GO HOGS "

[code red]

I am still not sold on our second level and the ability to cover.  I would like to say we will heat up Knight but....I don't think we will.  I see us losing a close one. 
Ags 30
Hogs 27

[hogfansince79]

Hogs 34
Aggies 23

:razorback:  :razorback:  :razorback:

[IntegrityHog]

Aggies 34
Good guys 17

Still all in with CBB, this was always going to be a rebuilding year

[younghog]

Arkansas 42
A&M 28

[Boarmonger]

I don't see aTm scoring in the 20s..  Their QB is too inconsistent with a comp % of 53%.  Their run game will play right into our strength on the DL.  They have great WRs but they don't have a QB that can get them the ball on a consistent basis.  They will have some success but not enough to win.  Hogs win 31-17.

[rickm1976]

How do you expect them to score 45 points? What about anything that has happened year to date would suggest that aTm can possibly score 45 points? If we score 35 (in regulation), we'll win going away.

Hope you're right.  Just remember what LA Tech's QB did to us, and A&M's QB has a lot more talent surrounding him.  That, plus their DLine are what scare me.

[AFWarrior83]

35-27 Hogs.

[Grunt]

There will be a big crowd including quite a few from Arkansas. Two good teams will play and the team that makes the fewest mistakes will win. Wish I knew more. Don't bet on this one.

[younghog]

I don't see aTm scoring in the 20s..  Their QB is too inconsistent with a comp % of 53%.  Their run game will play right into our strength on the DL.  They have great WRs but they don't have a QB that can get them the ball on a consistent basis.  They will have some success but not enough to win.  Hogs win 31-17.

Hope so

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Whoever wins the turnover battle most likely wins the game. How well our OT's handle their DE's and how well our DL stops the run are keys.

It could go either way, but

31-28 Arkansas.

I refuse to pick against the Hogs.

[Bigmac2]

I believe this game is one Bielema has circled for himself. More important than to him than Bama. This is why he pursued Rhoads to come to the UofA. With the secondary making greater strides in improvement over the first 3 weeks than the other aspects of the team I am feeling good about this game. We will get our running yards, we will own the time of possession limiting A&M's number of offensive plays, we will do better in the red zone than they will, hopefully we will win the special battle by playing smart and having Toby Baker. Only concern is that Bielema will play to conservative which will keep this game close and give the Aggies a chance. All signs point to a good win for the Hogs. Not going to be a Hog blowout but will be a comfortable 2 score win. Hopefully Bielema has learned from his mistakes last year in letting A&M back into the game late which was really Smith's fault and unseasoned secondary and special teams. I don't believe A&M has the weapons like they did last year to get back into it if they are down by 3 scores or more and as I stated our secondary is improved over last year.

Hogs 34
Aggies 24


Edit: Forgot to add that we have owned Chavis the past couple of years while he was at LSU. Maybe different player but going to be the same DC calling plays.

Edit: Standing corrected. Chavis is in his second year at A&M however I still stand by that we own him.

[870hogfan]

31 Arkansas- 21 Aggies

[DoctorSusscrofa]

Want the Hogs to win badly. But I can't yet say I expect it. If we win this game I think we're for real. Until we do, though, I gotta say:

33-28 Aggies.

[DoctorSusscrofa]

I believe this game is one Bielema has circled for himself. More important than to him than Bama. This is why he pursued Rhoads to come to the UofA. With the secondary making greater strides in improvement over the first 3 weeks than the other aspects of the team I am feeling good about this game. We will get our running yards, we will own the time of possession limiting A&M's number of offensive plays, we will do better in the red zone than they will, hopefully we will win the special battle by playing smart and having Toby Baker. Only concern is that Bielema will play to conservative which will keep this game close and give the Aggies a chance. All signs point to a good win for the Hogs. Not going to be a Hog blowout but will be a comfortable 2 score win. Hopefully Bielema has learned from his mistakes last year in letting A&M back into the game late which was really Smith's fault and unseasoned secondary and special teams. I don't believe A&M has the weapons like they did last year to get back into it if they are down by 3 scores or more and as I stated our secondary is improved over last year.

Hogs 34
Aggies 24


Edit: Forgot to add that we have owned Chavis the past couple of years while he was at LSU. Maybe different player but going to be the same DC calling plays.

Chavis is in his second year at ATM.

[BassinHawg]

38-34 Hogs

[Russ22]

Chavis is in his second year at ATM.

In Chavis last 2 years at LSU, the hogs gained 360 yards (182 rush) in 2013 and 264 yards (95 rush) in 2014. Absolute ownage...   

[JMartin_AF1]

Hogs 38 - 35 overtime

[Kevin]

33-24 aggies

go hogs

[BrickTwnHog]

Arkansas 31
Aggies-30

Hogs kick field goal with 1 min left and defense has to hold

[hogsanity]

If the defense can protect the middle of the field, they have a good chance. They did this against TCU for the 1st 3 quarters. That has been the killer in many games the last 3 seasons, either short passes that turn into long runs, or deep passes down the middle to slot receivers, backs or te's beating or lb's.

[Karma]

A&M 38
Ark 28

[Ragnar Hogbrok]

If our offensive line comes together, our running game clicks, and we don't turn the ball over, I believe we win by a touchdown.

Our running game will have to effectively run at their rushing ends to slow them down to set up our passing game. 

Our special teams will have to prevent damaging plays, as well.

My heart says we win, but my brain thinks this one is too close to call.