To be successful at Arkansas...

[bphi11ips]

It continues to amaze me how people here want to discount everything bad about the Hogs location, act as if those things do not even factor in at all - WHEN IT COMES TO RECRUITING DALLAS - but they want to point out all the time how those things mean we should not even waste time in Fla or GA or even South La or South MS.

It continues to amaze me how you just pull stuff out of your posterior on here.  Have you ever looked at a map of the United States?  Here is a quiz:

Which of these cities is approximately 5 hours by car from Fayetteville, AR?

a)  Miami, FLA
b)  Dallas, TX
c)  Macon, GA
d)  Hattiesburg, MS

How many daily direct flights are available between Miami, FLA and Fayetteville, AR?

a)  3
b)  5
c)  0
d)  2

How many direct daily flights are there between Dallas and Fayetteville?

a)  7
b)  3
c)  0
d)  2

True or False?  An round-trip flight from Miami to Fayetteville is less expensive on the average than a round-trip flight from Dallas to Fayetteville.

If you scored 100 on this quiz, congratulations.  You are now qualified to apply to the University of Arkansas for a position as a Recruiter.

Surely you are aware of the number of students from Arkansas attending the UofA:

https://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2013/09/30/hook-em-hogs-texas-big-factor-in-growth-at-university-of-arkansas

It seems many students from the DFW area prefer to go out-of-state:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/education/2011/08/26/students-in-wealthier-texas-districts-much-likelier-to-go-to-out-of-state-colleges

That article also mentions UA's tuition break for students from bordering states.  Why would athletes be any different than other students?

[bphi11ips]

What is competing for us? 3 SEC West titles in 20+ years. That is our reality. If you want to believe that Arkansas can be better then by all means do it but don't act like it's just a poor Lil Arkansas syndrome when people analyze our history in the SEC and then come to the conclusion that we do have disadvantages that certainly affects the program in a negative way.

And a great coach will help but he's not going to raise our population or move our campus closer to major metro areas.

Show me where I mentioned Poor Whiddle Arkiesaw syndrome above?  I will tell you that I have been very familiar with the Arkansas Razorbacks for 50 years.  I know the difference between Frank Broyles, Lou Holtz, Ken Hatfield and Bobby Petrino and Jack Crowe, Houston Nutt and Bret Bielema.  I also know the difference between the SWC and the SEC.

You are free to base your opinions on Arkansas's SEC record and conclude that it can not be improved upon.  I choose to base my belief that a coach can make all the difference in the world based upon what I have seen on the football field the last 50 years.  And upon what I have seen at other schools.  Records fluctuate with coaches.  That is not unique to Arkansas.   

[HogHomer]

It continues to amaze me how you just pull stuff out of your posterior on here.  Have you ever looked at a map of the United States?  Here is a quiz:

Which of these cities is approximately 5 hours by car from Fayetteville, AR?

a)  Miami, FLA
b)  Dallas, TX
c)  Macon, GA
d)  Hattiesburg, MS

How many daily direct flights are available between Miami, FLA and Fayetteville, AR?

a)  3
b)  5
c)  0
d)  2

How many direct daily flights are there between Dallas and Fayetteville?

a)  7
b)  3
c)  0
d)  2

True or False?  An round-trip flight from Miami to Fayetteville is less expensive on the average than a round-trip flight from Dallas to Fayetteville.

If you scored 100 on this quiz, congratulations.  You are now qualified to apply to the University of Arkansas for a position as a Recruiter.

Surely you are aware of the number of students from Arkansas attending the UofA:

https://www.arktimes.com/ArkansasBlog/archives/2013/09/30/hook-em-hogs-texas-big-factor-in-growth-at-university-of-arkansas

It seems many students from the DFW area prefer to go out-of-state:

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/education/2011/08/26/students-in-wealthier-texas-districts-much-likelier-to-go-to-out-of-state-colleges

That article also mentions UA's tuition break for students from bordering states.  Why would athletes be any different than other students?

The fact that transportation is more readily available doesn't change the fact that our biggest recruiting base is still farther for us then about 10 other Universities. So here we are still in the same predicament.

And since you're bringing up Miami. Are Miami parents going to want to pay for plane tickets when they can go to Miami or the other Florida schools to see their kids play 5-7 times a year? Will kids want to only go home twice a year because they don't have the time to fly back to wherever and are just there for a weekend?

[HogHomer]

Show me where I mentioned Poor Whiddle Arkiesaw syndrome above?  I will tell you that I have been very familiar with the Arkansas Razorbacks for 50 years.  I know the difference between Frank Broyles, Lou Holtz, Ken Hatfield and Bobby Petrino and Jack Crowe, Houston Nutt and Bret Bielema.  I also know the difference between the SWC and the SEC.

You are free to base your opinions on Arkansas's SEC record and conclude that it can not be improved upon.  I choose to base my belief that a coach can make all the difference in the world based upon what I have seen on the football field the last 50 years.  And upon what I have seen at other schools.  Records fluctuate with coaches.  That is not unique to Arkansas.

On the other hand, there is now an entrenched belief that Arkansas can not compete with the deep south SEC teams, including A&M, because Arkansas is hopelessly stuck at the bottom of the conference because of inherent recruiting disadvantages.

That is the same sentiment as the poor Lil Arkansas syndrome people attach to the ones trying to talk about the disadvantages of Arkansas.

Football is not the same as it was 50 years ago it's changed. Arkansas isn't what it was 50 years ago. If you choose to not look at where Arkansas is and why it's there you are blinding yourself to reality.

[bphi11ips]

Success often breeds success and we haven't had any success for years.  Most Seniors in High School cannot remember anything about Arkansas that would make them want to come here.

When Arkansas was popular with recruits, we had only a few Bowls and Arkansas usually cracked one of them, sometimes one of the big 4.  Back then, about 20 teams went Bowling and you better find a way to get on one of those teams if you wanted to go bowling. 

Now, just about any team can reach the Bowls Arkansas has reached recently, meaning you can go to Anywhere University and have just as good of a chance of gong bowling as you could at Arkansas.  We do not offer anything at Arkansas that a Kid can't get anywhere he goes.

What we haven't had is a scheme most Kids like, a coach they wish to go play for, a name brand school to brag about, Top that off with poor location and we got nothing.

We keep talking about a coach them up coach.  Hell, first we just need a coach that can coach them, period.  We need a coach that can evaluate players like women can evaluate clothes.  I need this Dude to return punts and kickoffs.  This player could take the handoff rolling right and throw it 30 yards downfield to an uncovered receiver.  They will only leave the WR uncovered once to close on the run.  Now I got one less person to block on the end sweep. and on and on and on.  We need our coach to not be so damn lazy he doesn't find time to recruit hard or so egotistical no Parents can stand him or so dumb its obvious to even the Parents that their Kid shouldn't go there.  Once we half assed take care of the things we can take care of, then we can worry about getting Mr. 5 star to come here.  Right now, Arkansas is no better than any of the top 60 to 80 schools out there.  HopefulHog is just that, hopeful.  The folks we want to come here has no idea what HopefulHog is talking about.  The worst thing we could do right now is try to sell this hundred dollar program for thousands of dollars. Most folks can see right through that LOS.

There's a lot of truth here, even though you are overly negative.  The location is not horrible.  It is not great, either.  There are not 60-80 college football teams playing in a 75,000 seat stadium in the SEC.  There aren't 60-80 teams playing regularly in prime slots on ESPN and network television.  There aren't 60-80 teams with Arkansas's brand.

And while Arkansas has not been a household name in the memory of current recruits, many high school seniors today with the potential to play college football are familiar with Arkansas and remember the Petrino years.  Some remember McFadden, Jones and Hilllis.  In Arkansas they remember them because they are Arkansans.  Out-of-state they remember them because a lot of these kids have played football since they were five years old.  And these kids have parents.  Parents are heavily involved in the decision on where to go to play football for most of these kids. 

Arkansas has to overcome its recent poor performance, but even that is not as bad as you make it sound.  Three of the last six years have been awful.  We missed bowl games, but we went to bowl games the other three and will generally go to a bowl game as long as the current framework is in place.

[bphi11ips]

On the other hand, there is now an entrenched belief that Arkansas can not compete with the deep south SEC teams, including A&M, because Arkansas is hopelessly stuck at the bottom of the conference because of inherent recruiting disadvantages.

That is the same sentiment as the poor Lil Arkansas syndrome people attach to the ones trying to talk about the disadvantages of Arkansas.

Football is not the same as it was 50 years ago it's changed. Arkansas isn't what it was 50 years ago. If you choose to not look at where Arkansas is and why it's there you are blinding yourself to reality.

If you believe your "Poor Whiddle ArkieSaw Syndrome" mentality you might as well find another team to support unless you enjoy misery.

Nothing repeats itself like history.  Save the football lecture for someone who doesn't understand the game. 

[cram224]

Sigh. If you've read my other post you would see i am talking about the person behind the 247 profile page. I'm talking about the family. Their situations. The GF thing isn't my big point it's a piece of a much bigger picture.

When I was on campus during FB season, I seen enrollment numbers and was surprised at the number of kids from Texas. That in its self should be a good recruiting tool.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I think it's absolutely crucial that the coach be able develop 3 star players, to the level of 4-5 star athletes that are hungry to win. Petrino was excellent at that.  I believe that was a big problem with the style Bielema ran.  It required incredible talent, that we just couldn't get here on a regular basis.

It's a MUST that Chat Morris and staff are able to recruit players with lesser talent,  or at least not as highly ranked as the top recruits, and develop them into stars.  For those of you in the know,  that have done more research than me, can Chad Morris do this?  Does he have a pretty good history of developing players?  As I said,  in my opinion,  it's a must here at Arkansas if he expects to win.

Depends on your definition of success.

[HogHomer]

If you believe your "Poor Whiddle ArkieSaw Syndrome" mentality you might as well find another team to support unless you enjoy misery.

Nothing repeats itself like history.  Save the football lecture for someone who doesn't understand the game.

I root for Arkansas because it is my state, my team, my University. So you can shove it just because you fail or deny to assess the situation that Arkansas is in with the landscape of college football. You obviously would rather live with what ifs rather than stats and facts. Football is a game to be enjoyed I am not an emotional roller coaster if arkansas doesn't do well but I'm also not the one to bail on this team if it can't achieve anything more than it already has.

[jimhog]

Morris will have to recruit talented players to be competitive because other sec coaches aren't standing still to allow Arkansas to develop players. Player improvement will occur across all teams so we had better start on the common starting line.

[rtr]

Arkansas will play in the SEC championship game again.

[From Tusk Till Dawn]

The starting point is typically with a new HC, a big hire that creates buzz or does something exotic in regards to scheme (someone like Chip Kelly at Oregon).  That has a magnet effect with the big recruits.  Next, he has to do something with those big recruits pretty quickly and then sustain it for 2-3 years in order to keep them coming.  We havent done that.  Only 6 seasons of 9 or better since joining the SEC 25+ years ago.  The other approach is a slow steady upward trajectory with an occasional bump,  something like 5 wins, then 7, 8, 9, 6, 8, not news worthy but solid.  Those schools get the scraps and coach em up (Dan Mullen at Miss St.), Over time they will get less scraps and more talent because they are a safe bet, especially if you are a 4* and want to play sooner vs. later.  Felt like that was where CBB was heading but just left too many on the table.  Will be interesting to see what happens with CCM, he's not a big name but but does have an exotic scheme.  Only time will tell.

[OLEJACKETFAN]

Give Morris time, he will CHANGE Recruiting at Arkansas! He can get the Talent just give him a little time. Also, if he doesn't pursue a talented player, don't be alarmed. Chads not going to chase a problem HS athlete. Lots of Texas Players are going to jump at the chance to come play in the SEC West for Arkansas! It also looks like he is putting a fence around the top Arkansas players now!

[bphi11ips]

I root for Arkansas because it is my state, my team, my University. So you can shove it just because you fail or deny to assess the situation that Arkansas is in with the landscape of college football. You obviously would rather live with what ifs rather than stats and facts. Football is a game to be enjoyed I am not an emotional roller coaster if arkansas doesn't do well but I'm also not the one to bail on this team if it can't achieve anything more than it already has.

Sit up, put your feet on the floor, and put your drink down.  And learn some manners.  It is embarassing when alumni show such lack of civility.

Most of the BOT members are old enough to be your grandfather.  They remember the early fifties and haven't seen anything like it since.  They saw what Frank Broyles was able to do and they saw how he did it.  They remember Ronnie Caveness and Bill Montgomery and Chuck Dicus and they have seen plenty like them from Texas impact Arkansas' s roster since.  They know what they are doing and they don't share your pessimism.

[12247]

Morris reminds me of a decent baseball pitcher.  Any pitcher knows and i know because I was a baseball pitcher, that you split the plate enough and you will be hit and hit hard.  So its your intention to throw it where they ain't.  On O, Morris hopes to put the ball where there is the least resistance by the defense.  Do that enough, much like the pitcher, you will be successful.  Be stupid enough to groove the plate over and over or run it up the middle over and over and you are going down.  Unless you are completely overpowering the competition, you cannot line up and run over folks.  And if you can just run it over folks, then about any scheme you choose to operate will work just fine. 

It is the same on D.  You must find a way to get your best on the ball and it becomes a guessing game.  The better you coach, the more likely you guess correctly and the better chance you have for success.  You put  Kid a half step slower in the correct position and have his attitude adjusted and desire in afterburner mode and you got one hell of a chance to win some battles.  See TCU and their entire team of lessors doing far more than they should based on talent, power and speed.  Those Kids refuse to be denied and totally forget they aren't that good.  They believe they are that good.  Sure there are limits to what attitude, desire and good coaching can do, but you can win a lot with those 3 items.

[bphi11ips]

Morris reminds me of a decent baseball pitcher.  Any pitcher knows and i know because I was a baseball pitcher, that you split the plate enough and you will be hit and hit hard.  So its your intention to throw it where they ain't.  On O, Morris hopes to put the ball where there is the least resistance by the defense.  Do that enough, much like the pitcher, you will be successful.  Be stupid enough to groove the plate over and over or run it up the middle over and over and you are going down.  Unless you are completely overpowering the competition, you cannot line up and run over folks.  And if you can just run it over folks, then about any scheme you choose to operate will work just fine. 

It is the same on D.  You must find a way to get your best on the ball and it becomes a guessing game.  The better you coach, the more likely you guess correctly and the better chance you have for success.  You put  Kid a half step slower in the correct position and have his attitude adjusted and desire in afterburner mode and you got one hell of a chance to win some battles.  See TCU and their entire team of lessors doing far more than they should based on talent, power and speed.  Those Kids refuse to be denied and totally forget they aren't that good.  They believe they are that good.  Sure there are limits to what attitude, desire and good coaching can do, but you can win a lot with those 3 items.

That second paragraph is a pretty good description of a vintage Arkansas defense, and we aren't talking the 60's.

[rtr]

Give Morris time, he will CHANGE Recruiting at Arkansas! He can get the Talent just give him a little time. Also, if he doesn't pursue a talented player, don't be alarmed. Chads not going to chase a problem HS athlete. Lots of Texas Players are going to jump at the chance to come play in the SEC West for Arkansas! It also looks like he is putting a fence around the top Arkansas players now!

This.^^^^

and

That second paragraph is a pretty good description of a vintage Arkansas defense, and we aren't talking the 60's.

This.^^^^

[HogHomer]

Sit up, put your feet on the floor, and put your drink down.  And learn some manners.  It is embarassing when alumni show such lack of civility.

Most of the BOT members are old enough to be your grandfather.  They remember the early fifties and haven't seen anything like it since.  They saw what Frank Broyles was able to do and they saw how he did it.  They remember Ronnie Caveness and Bill Montgomery and Chuck Dicus and they have seen plenty like them from Texas impact Arkansas' s roster since.  They know what they are doing and they don't share your pessimism.

Keep clinging to an era that has come and gone. It's time to embrace today not 50 years ago.

It's embarrassing to tell another hog fan to find another team, one who has actually probably been closer to the team and university than you ever have. I have seen how much the program means to the people you mention and more. I have seen what they have given to this program but that doesn't change the fact that I can take a step back and look at where this program is. With all the stats and facts of what conference Arkansas is in, the population of the state, the sorry state of many of the HS programs, who have to start producing for this university.

So don't you tell me that I am an embarrassment for this university when you have no idea who I am or what I've done.

[bphi11ips]

Keep clinging to an era that has come and gone. It's time to embrace today not 50 years ago.

It's embarrassing to tell another hog fan to find another team, one who has actually probably been closer to the team and university than you ever have. I have seen how much the program means to the people you mention and more. I have seen what they have given to this program but that doesn't change the fact that I can take a step back and look at where this program is. With all the stats and facts of what conference Arkansas is in, the population of the state, the sorry state of many of the HS programs, who have to start producing for this university.

So don't you tell me that I am an embarrassment for this university when you have no idea who I am or what I've done.

The closer you are to the program the more concerning are your comments and defeatism.  A poster here recently started a thread in which he described a conversation with two recent players who work for him.  The gist was that Bret Bielema is the best coach Arkansas has ever had and that Arkansas will never be able to compete in the SEC.  That is precisely the reason that comments like yours should be addressed.  It is precisely that sort of attitude that got Jeff Long and Bret Bielema fired.

If you want to argue, you will be more effective if you avoid misrepresenting your adversary's viewpoint.  I said I have closely watched Arkansas football for 50 years.  That means from 1967 to 2017.  When I say closely I mean on a daily basis and all sports, from recruiting to post-game analysis wherever available to me. It does not mean I am suggesting that Arkansas should be great now because it was great in the 1960's, most of which I don't personally remember.  I have read every book I know about on the Razorbacks' history and coaches. 

Bob Stoops recently described Arkansas as a sleeping giant.  Someone said the same thing more recently about Tennessee.  Arkansas and Tennessee are similar programs, with Tennessee having the biggest potential upside in most years for a variety of reasons, including location and demographics.  But Arkansas has the facilities and tradition to have a similar upside with the right coach, one who understands what made the program great to begin with.  Those factors haven't changed since 1958.  There are two differences - integration and the SEC.  Arkansas competed well on a national basis for twenty years post-integration and has done so periodically since 1990.  By-and-large, the same teams that were national powers before integration are the same teams that have been national powers post-integration.  Notable exceptions are Miami, Florida and Florida State.  Arkansas will win fewer conference games in the SEC than it did in the SWC.  If that bothers anyone, they should lobby for a conference change or follow an SEC team with inherent advantages over Arkansas.  Those teams will win more games over time.

The point I made was not that Arkansas would be Alabama with Nick Saban.  That is preposterous and I've stated exactly the opposite here several times when someone has suggested it.  The point is that Alabama's recruiting spiked with Saban and has remained there.  Saban went to Alabama proclaiming that he was not the best coach in college football but that he is the best recruiter.  His record at Michigan State vs. his record at Alabama tends to support his claim, as do his recruiting classes at LSU.  Saban knew what he was doing when he took the job.  He was planting himself in the heart of recruiting territory.  Even closer to it than he had been in Baton Rouge.  But note that Saban signs only about 6 players every year from Alabama.  Most of the rest come from surrounding states.  He draws a 5 hour circle around Tuscaloosa and proceeds from there.

What would Saban do at Arkansas?  First, he'd approach the situation with respect for the program.  He remembers what it was, knows why it was great, and knows it has suffered from mediocre coaches for 25 years with the exception of Bobby Petrino, who scared him to death.  Saban would do at Arkansas the same thing he has done at Alabama.  He would draw a 5 hour circle and pursue the talent within it.

Over twenty million people live within a five hour drive of Fayetteville.  About 4 million are African American.  Most did not grow up as Razorbacks fans.  Only 3 million of those live in Arkansas, with about 450,000 being African American, the vast majority of whom reside in Central and South Arkansas.  Chances are good that Arkansans grew up Razorbacks fans, but loyalty has eroded over time, and the publicly expressed attitudes of Long  and Bielema have hastened that erosion.  Again, that's why they are gone, aside from the terrible record.

Bielema, and Petrino before him, abandoned Arkansas's 5 hour circle and tried to recruit nationally.  That was a mistake.  Arkansas has suffered for it, especially at skill positions where speed is the difference in a PBU and a TD.  Meanwhile, TCU, Oklahoma State and OU have speed in abundance on both sides of the ball.  Part of the problem was Bielema's "system", but the pro-style offense requires speed, too.  Defense requires speed regardless of offensive philosophy.  Bielema would have had a better shot at finding speed had he looked for it closer to home.  Instead, he looked for it in Florida and southern Louisiana where he beat G5 schools for skilled players.  Fans were impressed.  Some of us weren't. A few said so here at the time and got flamed for speaking up.  Tennessee made the same mistake post-Fulmer.  They tried to go national and killed themselves in the process.  That's why Fulmer is back, at least for a minute.

Football has changed in the last 50 years.  Everything changes.  I've seen the rise of the Wishbone, watched Jimmy Johnson kill it and replace it with the pro-style offense, watched Spurrier take that offense to Florida and build a national power where one had never existed, watched Rich Rodriguez introduce the Spread, and have watched as Chip Kelly and many others have designed versions of it built around every sort of read option imaginable.  It's an exciting time for offense.  I've also watched the rise of 7 on 7, "elite"
prospect camps, and the proliferation of recruiting services and player representatives starting at the middle school level.  I consider the cottage industry that has developed around these to be bad for the kids and bad for the game itself.

So where does this put Arkansas?  In great position to get back to its roots and use beautiful new players' facilities and a renovated stadium, plus an opportunity to be part a renaissance in a powerful SEC program, to attract the best players in its recruiting footprint.  The offensive philosophy will no longer work against the predominant style of football in the footprint.  The head coach and his staff will no longer be persona non grata in that footprint. 

None of this changes geography or demographics.  But those have always been disadvantages for Arkansas, even in the days of the SWC.  Arkansas succeeded then and at times in the SEC with a can-do, underdog mentality.  Arkansas was well-known at one time for swarming defense.  At times under Bielema it looked like Arkansas was playing with 8 defenders in a swiss-cheese defense.  It was bizarre and frustrating. 

Yes - Arkansas high school football must improve.  So must public education in Little Rock.  But there are just as many great athletes per capita in Arkansas as there are anywhere else.  The athletic department needs to do everything reasonably possible to insure they grow up Razorbacks fans.

If you don't understand why the BOT did what it just did and hired the guy they just hired, I can't help you much to understand why Arkansas is not doomed to become mired in the 60 year low of the last six years.  Some of the men on the Board are old enough to be my father. One is a former law partner of mine.  He says the BOT is the best board he has ever served on, and he is one smart man who loves Arkansas and has served on many boards.

You're right, I don't know who you are.  I respect you as an alum.  I am one myself, as have been many of my ancestors.  My grandfather's first game was Arkansas's 1909 win over LSU in Memphis.  He was a season ticket holder.  So was my father.  My avatar is a photo of me taken in 1963.  It hung in Papaw's den until he died.  I first read Orville Henry at breakfast with him before the Big Shootout in 1969.  I graduated from UA's law school and have been back three times to teach as a visiting professor.  I have lived in Nashville, Tennessee for 25 years where I represent recording artists, songwriters, record producers, record labels, and music publishing companies.  That is what I do.  An Arkansan and Razorback is who I am.  Now you know something about me. 

[rtr]

The closer you are to the program the more concerning are your comments and defeatism.  A poster here recently started a thread in which he described a conversation with two recent players who work for him.  The gist was that Bret Bielema is the best coach Arkansas has ever had and that Arkansas will never be able to compete in the SEC.  That is precisely the reason that comments like yours should be addressed.  It is precisely that sort of attitude that got Jeff Long and Bret Bielema fired.

If you want to argue, you will be more effective if you avoid misrepresenting your adversary's viewpoint.  I said I have closely watched Arkansas for 50 years.  That means from 1967 to 2017.  When I say closely I mean on a daily basis and all sports, from recruiting to post-game analysis wherever available to me. It does not mean I am suggesting that Arkansas should be great now because it was great in the 1960's, most of which I don't personally remember.  I have read every book I know about on the Razorbacks' history and coaches. 

Bob Stoops recently described Arkansas as a sleeping giant.  Someone said the same thing more recently about Tennessee.  Arkansas and Tennessee are similar programs, with Tennessee having the biggest potential upside in most years for a variety of factors, including location and demographics.  But Arkansas has the facilities and tradition to have a similar upside with the right coach, one who understands what made the program great to begin with.  Those factors haven't changed since 1958.  There are two differences - integration and the SEC.  Arkansas competed well on a national basis for twenty years post-integration and has done so periodically since 1990.  Arkansas will win fewer conference games in the SEC than it did in the SWC.  If that bothers anyone, they should lobby for a conference change or follow an SEC team with inherent advantages over Arkansas.  Those teams will win more games over time.

The point I made was not that Arkansas would be Alabama with Nick Saban.  That is preposterous and I've stated exactly the opposite here several times when someone has suggested it.  The point is that Alabama's recruiting spiked with Saban and has remained there.  Saban went to Alabama proclaiming that he was not the best coach in college football but that he is the best recruiter.  His record at Michigan State vs. his record at Alabama tends to support his claim, as do his recruiting classes at LSU.  Saban knew what he was doing when he took the job.  He was planting himself in the heart of recruiting territory.  Even closer to it than he had been in Baton Rouge.  But note that Saban signs only about 6 players every year from Alabama.  Most of the rest come from surrounding states.  He draws a 5 hour circle around Tuscaloosa and proceeds from there.

What would Saban do at Arkansas?  First, he'd approach the situation with respect for the program.  He remembers what it was, knows why it was great, and knows it has suffered from mediocre coaches for 25 years with the exception of Bobby Petrino, who scared him to death.  Saban would do at Arkansas the same thing he has done at Alabama.  He would draw a 5 hour circle and pursue the talent within it.

Over twenty million people live within a five hour drive of Fayetteville.  About 4 million are African American.  Most did not grow up as Razorbacks fans.  Only 3 million of those live in Arkansas, with about 450,000 being African American, the vast majority of whom reside in Central and South Arkansas.  Chances are good that Arkansans grew up Razorbacks fans, but loyalty has eroded over time, and the publicly expressed attitudes of Long  and Bielema have hastened that erosion.  Again, that's why they are gone, aside from the terrible record.

Bielema, and Petrino before him, abandoned Arkansas's 5 hour circle and tried to recruit nationally.  That was a mistake.  Arkansas has suffered for it, especially at skill positions where speed is the difference in a PBU and a TD.  Meanwhile, TCU, Oklahoma State and OU have speed in abundance on both sides of the ball.  Part of the problem was Bielema's "system", but the pro-style offense requires speed, too.  Defense requires speed regardlessof offensive philosophy.  Bielema would had a better shot at finding speed had he looked for it closer to home.  Instead he looked for it in Florida and southern Louisiana where he beat G5 schools for skilled players.  Fans were impressed.  Some of us weren't. A few said so here at the time and got flamed for speaking up.  Tennessee made the same mistake post-Fulmer.  They tried to go national and killed themselves in the process.  That's why Fulmer is back, at least for a minute.

Football has changed in the last 50 years.  Everything changes.  I've seen the rise of the Wishbone, watched Jimmy Johnson kill it and replace it with the pro-style offense, watched Spurrier take that offense to Florida and build a national power where one had never existed, watched Rich Rodriguez introduce the Spread, and have watched as Chip Kelly and many others have designed versions of it built around every sort of read option imaginable.  It's an exciting time for offense.  I've also watched the rise of 7 on 7, "elite"
prospect camps, and the proliferation of recruiting services and player representatives starting at the middle school level.  I consider the cottage industry that has developed around these to be bad for the kids and bad for the game itself.

So where does this put Arkansas?  In great position to get back to its roots and use beautiful new players' facilities and a renovated stadium, plus an opportunity to be part a renaissance in a powerful SEC program, to attract the best players in its recruiting footprint.  The offensive philosophy will no longer work against the predominant style of football in the footprint.  The head coach and his staff will no longer be persona non grata in that footprint. 

None of this changes geography or demographics.  But those have always been disadvantages for Arkansas, even in the days of the SWC.  Arkansas succeeded then and at times in the SEC with a can-do, underdog mentality.  Arkansas was well-known at one time for swarming defense.  At times under Bielema, it looked like Arkansas was playing with 8 defenders in a swiss-cheese defense.  It was bizarre and frustrating. 

Yes - Arkansas high school must improve.  So must public education in Little Rock.  But there are just as many great athletes per capita in Arkansas as there are anywhere else.  The athletic department needs to do everything reasonably possible to insure they grow up Razorbacks fans.

If you don't understand why the BOT did what it just did and hired the guy they just hired, I can't help you much to understand why Arkansas is not doomed to become mired in the 60 year low of the last six years.  Some of the men one the Board are old enough to be my father. One is a former law partner of mine.  He says the BOT is the best board he has ever served on, and he is one smart man who loves Arkansas and has served on many boards.

You're right, I don't know who you are.  I respect you as an alum.  I am one myself, as have been many of my ancestors.  My grandfather's first game was Arkansas's 1909 win over LSU in Memphis.  He was a season ticket holder.  So was my father.  My avatar is a photo of me taken in 1963.  It hung in Papaw's den until he died.  I first read Orville Henry at breakfast with him.  I graduated from UA's law school and have been back three times tomteach as a visiting professor.  I have lived in Nashville, Tennessee for 25 yearscwhere I represent recording artists, songwriters, record producers, record labels, and music publishing companies.  That is what I do.  An Arkansan and Razorback is who I am.  Now you know something about me. 

Very well said.

[hogsanity]

What would Saban do at Arkansas?.........  He would draw a 5 hour circle and pursue the talent within it.

Over twenty million people live within a five hour drive of Fayetteville.  About 4 million are African American.  Most did not grow up as Razorbacks fans.  Only 3 million of those live in Arkansas, with about 450,000 being African American, the vast majority of whom reside in Central and South Arkansas.  Chances are good that Arkansans grew up Razorbacks fans, but loyalty has eroded over time, and the publicly expressed attitudes of Long  and Bielema have hastened that erosion.  Again, that's why they are gone, aside from the terrible record.


None of this changes geography or demographics.  But those have always been disadvantages for Arkansas, even in the days of the SWC.  Arkansas succeeded then and at times in the SEC with a can-do, underdog mentality.  Arkansas was well-known at one time for swarming defense.  At times under Bielema it looked like Arkansas was playing with 8 defenders in a swiss-cheese defense.  It was bizarre and frustrating. 

Yes - Arkansas high school football must improve.  So must public education in Little Rock.  But there are just as many great athletes per capita in Arkansas as there are anywhere else.  The athletic department needs to do everything reasonably possible to insure they grow up Razorbacks fans.

And all that is going to add up to a program that, on average wins about 7 or 8 games a year.

[Beached]

And all that is going to add up to a program that, on average wins about 7 or 8 games a year.

hogsanity - making Eeyore look like an optimist since 2005.

[hogsanity]

hogsanity - making Eeyore look like an optimist since 2005.

Better than looking like the unrealistic homers who predict that every thing the Hogs try is going to result in 12 win seasons and multiple nc's. At least the poster I quoted di acknowledge the geographic and demographic issues are not going away, no matter who the coach is. Most people here just ignore those things like they never existed.

I like the Cm hire. I think he has a chance to do some things here based on how he coaches/recruits, and he might actually be able to work around some of the recruiting issues, BUT those things are going to be what keeps the Hogs from ever being a program that CONSISTENTLY is at or near the top of the secw.

[Hoggish1]

Agreed..if Clemson can do it?  We can do it!!!  Time will tell yes.  The spread offense attracts recruits like flies to honey.  We got the right guy. 

We got the right guy for the spread but now it's played everywhere.  CCM needs to keep developing the spread beyond what others are doing with it.

[hogsanity]

We got the right guy for the spread but now it's played everywhere.  CCM needs to keep developing the spread beyond what others are doing with it.

To me, the spread is like when Nolan and Tark and only couple others were running and gunning in college bball. IT worked, even when you had "lesser" talent because no one saw it more than once or twice a year and had real trouble defending it or simply keeping up that pace for 40 minutes. Eventually the rest of college basketball caught up to them and teams everywhere were playing that kid of game.

[Beached]

Better than looking like the unrealistic homers who predict that every thing the Hogs try is going to result in 12 win seasons and multiple nc's.

LOL, because we have so many here predicting that kind of future.

You just live to bring everyone down to your level. 

[oldhawg]

And all that is going to add up to a program that, on average wins about 7 or 8 games a year.

I'll take the high end average ---- 8.  At least that's an improvement over the 5.8 wins that Bret Bielema achieved.  An average of eight probably means a ten or eleven win season now and then.  In his short tenure Bobby Petrino averaged 8.5 wins a season, and folks were pretty fired up about that.

[hogsanity]

I'll take the high end average ---- 8.  At least that's an improvement over the 5.8 wins that Bret Bielema achieved.  An average of eight probably means a ten or eleven win season now and then.  In his short tenure Bobby Petrino averaged 8.5 wins a season, and folks were pretty fired up about that.

There is nothing wrong with a 8 win average. As you correctly point out if that is the average it is going to mean some years of 9 or 10 or more. Why some people freak out when someone says 8 win average is beyond me. Do they think this program is going to be come a 9+ win every year program?

[hogsanity]

hogsanity - making Eeyore look like an optimist since 2005.

what is wrong with being a 7 or 8 win program, on average?

[Beached]

what is wrong with being a 7 or 8 win program, on average?

Far be it from me to educate the head of the What Is Wrong department on their specialty.

[bphi11ips]

And all that is going to add up to a program that, on average wins about 7 or 8 games a year.

Maybe. You like to average the number of wins at Arkansas over its history to support your claim.  You ignore that an average is just that - an average.  Guess what? At .588, Arkansas is 25 among P5 football teams in winning percentage. Some of those teams, like Miami, have not played at the highest level as long as Arkansas. Based on a 13 game schedule, .588 comes out to about 8 wins for two years and 7 wins a third year. On average. But we all know that over 125 years that there are good and bad seasons. We won 21 in two years within the last decade. We will do that again.

At .633, Auburn comes in 14 in P5 schools in winning percentage. That is 8.22 wins per year based upon a 13 game schedule. That is smack dab in the middle of recruiting Mecca. Tim Horton told a friend of mine a few years ago that recruiting at Auburn was much easier than it is at Arkansas. Big surprise.

At .723, Alabama is 5 in all-time winning percentage. That's 9.4 wins per year based on 13 games. I'm not from Alabama and didn't go to school there. I'm a Razorbacks fan. Just makes it tgat much sweeter when we beat the Crimson Tide.

[bphi11ips]

Better than looking like the unrealistic homers who predict that every thing the Hogs try is going to result in 12 win seasons and multiple nc's. At least the poster I quoted di acknowledge the geographic and demographic issues are not going away, no matter who the coach is. Most people here just ignore those things like they never existed.

I like the Cm hire. I think he has a chance to do some things here based on how he coaches/recruits, and he might actually be able to work around some of the recruiting issues, BUT those things are going to be what keeps the Hogs from ever being a program that CONSISTENTLY is at or near the top of the secw.

When have I ever predicted that everything the Razorbacks are doing will result in 12 win seasons and multiple national championships?  Identify one poster on this board who has.

I came closer than anyone here to predicting the 4-8 season we just experienced, and I identified the reasons why it was a possibility looking at it in June. Realism does not equal pessimism. If you are educated in college football over time, and you pretty much are, then you know it is very possible that Chip Morris can have multiple double digit win seasons at Arkansas.  There is precedent for that. You don't know what will happen any more than the rest of us.

[hogsanity]

If you are educated in college football over time, and you pretty much are, then you know it is very possible that Chip Morris can have multiple double digit win seasons at Arkansas.  There is precedent for that. You don't know what will happen any more than the rest of us.

But that was not the premise of the OP. The premise of the OP was that Morris be able to "coach up " 3 star players. And that philosophy will get you 7 or 8 wins a year. Sure CM COULD have 10 consecutive 10+ win seasons, but if he does it will be because he finds a way to get 4 and 5 star players to come here, not because he is coaching up 3 star players.

It is a pipe dream to think that anyone in the sec is going to win week after week using less talent than their opponents have. Can they pull an upset, sure, can they out scheme a team, yep, but not week after week after week.

If they continue to recruit in the mid 20's they will continue to have the same results they have had since joining the sec. Every now and then, when things line up just right, they will have an exceptional season maybe even two, but it will not be maintained, they will not consistently win 9+ trying to do so with lesser talent.

[GuvHog]

what is wrong with being a 7 or 8 win program, on average?

8 regular season wins a year should be the minimum with the exception of a new HC's first year. There is no excuse for how far the program has fallen in the last 4 years. Thankfully with a new AD and a New HC, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[bphi11ips]

But that was not the premise of the OP. The premise of the OP was that Morris be able to "coach up " 3 star players. And that philosophy will get you 7 or 8 wins a year. Sure CM COULD have 10 consecutive 10+ win seasons, but if he does it will be because he finds a way to get 4 and 5 star players to come here, not because he is coaching up 3 star players.

It is a pipe dream to think that anyone in the sec is going to win week after week using less talent than their opponents have. Can they pull an upset, sure, can they out scheme a team, yep, but not week after week after week.

If they continue to recruit in the mid 20's they will continue to have the same results they have had since joining the sec. Every now and then, when things line up just right, they will have an exceptional season maybe even two, but it will not be maintained, they will not consistently win 9+ trying to do so with lesser talent.

Dude, how many times do I have to say this?  Arkansas has many 4-star players on the roster now. We have signed about 3 or 4 "5 stars" this century. One could commit to us tomorrow and drop to a 4–star. One can jump from a 4 to a 5 tomorrow by committing to Alabama. We know this. We also know Alabama is going to recruit better than we do on an annual basis and that is how it has always been. How many 5 star players played for Arkansas in 2006, 2010 or 2011? 

Auburn's recruiting ranking (for those years that are available) has averaged about 11 while Arkansas's has averaged about 26. Head-to-head they were 10-10-1 before Bielema. Twenty years of data tends to show that recruiting rankings don't translate perfectly to the field where games are played.

Get off the Debbie-Downer rush and figure it out. Arkansas is about 6th or 7th in the conference in "putenshul", just like Broyles said we are. We have underachieved for 25 years because of poor coaching. We would not have been Alabama with Nick Saban. But we won 21 in two years with Bobby Petrino, who was great at some things but poor at others, especially when it came to building relationships within Arkansas's recruiting footprint.

I am going to predict that Chad Morris will make Arkansas very competitive on a national basis. How that translates to wins and championships is a different question, but he will make Arkansas proud and stop this incessant poor me attitude that comes with a historic string of crappy seasons.

[IronHog]

what is wrong with being a 7 or 8 win program, on average?

When a McFadden comes along you've got to be ready if you want to win a NC.


Nutt had McFadden, Anderson, etc and freaking Casey Dick at QB.


New coach has Burks in state.  He better be ready.

[razorbackfanatic]

You got to follow former MSU Coach Mullen"s formula  Get the best you can and Coach them up.  Gary Patterson been a master at this at TCU!

Yes +1

You can even see it on smaller scales at places like Texas Tech and Mizzou. Look out how many underrated DE's Mizzou has had make All SEC teams and get drafted. They weren't really underrated, they should have been 2 and 3 stars coming out of HS bc they were undersized, but they got developed and used in a scheme or philosophy that made them shine.

TT does this with undersized high school running backs. 5'9" 175lb guys that are too small to be ranked really high as college tailbacks, but they turn them into these jitterbug slot guys and get them in matchups in space that are nightmares for defenses, especially big physical defenses in the SEC. This is one reason why Texas Tech took us to school in 2015, but that same year we beat a team like #9 LSWho 31-14.
Patterson is a master of utilizing quick undersized defensive guys and even schemes them to line up off the ball more to create even more issues with their quickness for the offensive lines.

You have to find out what your niche is and become great at it. BP may have shown that at Arkansas it's having guys like Joe Adams, Jarius Wright in the slots with long receivers like Greg Childs and Cobi Hamilton out wide. Our crossing routes were practically unstoppable in 09-11. One thing Nutt was smart at was recruiting speed on defense. We've always had to play undersized LB's, DE's and rover type guys in the box, but used speed to help compensate for it. Guys like Tony Bua, Jeromy Flowers, Bo Mosley, DeAndre Berry, Caleb Miller, Jerico Nelson, Zac Painter, Jimmar Gallon, Gavin Walls, etc. Under Nutt we also always had speed at CB also. Lawrence Richardson, Batman, Marvin Jackson, Michael Grant, Eddie Jackson, etc.

[hogsanity]

To be successful ANYWHERE, you have to have better players or at least players as good as the teams you play. Would Bama have been what they have been the last 10 years if they were signing recruiting classes in the mid 20's? Aub? USC? Ohio St? Of course not. Coaching is a part of it too, just look at A&M. Imagine what they woukd have been with classes only in the mid 20's ( I mean they were pretty much 8 wins a year with better classes ).

Also, how the class gets highly ranked matters too. CM could bring in a 5 star Qb and four 4 star wr's and have a decent ranking but does it help fix the defense? Same token, he could concentrate on defense sign a bunch of highly rated defenders, have a highly ranted class, but not bring in any offensive playmakers.

[#1 STUNNA]

1. Cant let top recruits leave. 2019 class can be huge for arkansas.
2. Gotta get some top recruits out of state. morris should do this in texas.
3. Redshirt the kids that need redshirted. No reason to waste some of these kids years that are only getting in a couple games unless of course injuries. we will see if Morris believes in this.

[razorbackfanatic]

U may not be able to get a 6'5" 255lb 5* DE that runs a 4.5, but u might can get a 3* DE that's 6'3" 240 that runs a 4.9 and develop him. Jadeveon Clowney vs Trey Flowers.

[LZH]

what is wrong with being a 7 or 8 win program, on average?

Not enough Benjamins.....

[RoyInSpringdale/MizzouFan]

I think your new coach will be successful here, but give him a bit of time. He will win initially with pulling 3 stars from Texas that fit his system. The 4-5 star players will be easier to get with the wins and stability within the coaching ranks. I think you have a recruiting advantage to Fayetteville over Columbia. Even with MU's sporadic success the last 15 yrs recruiting has always been tough. So it comes down to a good coaching staff that can identify the 3 stars that were under evaluated by the bigs, and, yes, coach them up.

[elksnort]

The closer you are to the program the more concerning are your comments and defeatism.  A poster here recently started a thread in which he described a conversation with two recent players who work for him.  The gist was that Bret Bielema is the best coach Arkansas has ever had and that Arkansas will never be able to compete in the SEC.  That is precisely the reason that comments like yours should be addressed.  It is precisely that sort of attitude that got Jeff Long and Bret Bielema fired.

If you want to argue, you will be more effective if you avoid misrepresenting your adversary's viewpoint.  I said I have closely watched Arkansas football for 50 years.  That means from 1967 to 2017.  When I say closely I mean on a daily basis and all sports, from recruiting to post-game analysis wherever available to me. It does not mean I am suggesting that Arkansas should be great now because it was great in the 1960's, most of which I don't personally remember.  I have read every book I know about on the Razorbacks' history and coaches. 

Bob Stoops recently described Arkansas as a sleeping giant.  Someone said the same thing more recently about Tennessee.  Arkansas and Tennessee are similar programs, with Tennessee having the biggest potential upside in most years for a variety of reasons, including location and demographics.  But Arkansas has the facilities and tradition to have a similar upside with the right coach, one who understands what made the program great to begin with.  Those factors haven't changed since 1958.  There are two differences - integration and the SEC.  Arkansas competed well on a national basis for twenty years post-integration and has done so periodically since 1990.  By-and-large, the same teams that were national powers before integration are the same teams that have been national powers post-integration.  Notable exceptions are Miami, Florida and Florida State.  Arkansas will win fewer conference games in the SEC than it did in the SWC.  If that bothers anyone, they should lobby for a conference change or follow an SEC team with inherent advantages over Arkansas.  Those teams will win more games over time.

The point I made was not that Arkansas would be Alabama with Nick Saban.  That is preposterous and I've stated exactly the opposite here several times when someone has suggested it.  The point is that Alabama's recruiting spiked with Saban and has remained there.  Saban went to Alabama proclaiming that he was not the best coach in college football but that he is the best recruiter.  His record at Michigan State vs. his record at Alabama tends to support his claim, as do his recruiting classes at LSU.  Saban knew what he was doing when he took the job.  He was planting himself in the heart of recruiting territory.  Even closer to it than he had been in Baton Rouge.  But note that Saban signs only about 6 players every year from Alabama.  Most of the rest come from surrounding states.  He draws a 5 hour circle around Tuscaloosa and proceeds from there.

What would Saban do at Arkansas?  First, he'd approach the situation with respect for the program.  He remembers what it was, knows why it was great, and knows it has suffered from mediocre coaches for 25 years with the exception of Bobby Petrino, who scared him to death.  Saban would do at Arkansas the same thing he has done at Alabama.  He would draw a 5 hour circle and pursue the talent within it.

Over twenty million people live within a five hour drive of Fayetteville.  About 4 million are African American.  Most did not grow up as Razorbacks fans.  Only 3 million of those live in Arkansas, with about 450,000 being African American, the vast majority of whom reside in Central and South Arkansas.  Chances are good that Arkansans grew up Razorbacks fans, but loyalty has eroded over time, and the publicly expressed attitudes of Long  and Bielema have hastened that erosion.  Again, that's why they are gone, aside from the terrible record.

Bielema, and Petrino before him, abandoned Arkansas's 5 hour circle and tried to recruit nationally.  That was a mistake.  Arkansas has suffered for it, especially at skill positions where speed is the difference in a PBU and a TD.  Meanwhile, TCU, Oklahoma State and OU have speed in abundance on both sides of the ball.  Part of the problem was Bielema's "system", but the pro-style offense requires speed, too.  Defense requires speed regardless of offensive philosophy.  Bielema would have had a better shot at finding speed had he looked for it closer to home.  Instead, he looked for it in Florida and southern Louisiana where he beat G5 schools for skilled players.  Fans were impressed.  Some of us weren't. A few said so here at the time and got flamed for speaking up.  Tennessee made the same mistake post-Fulmer.  They tried to go national and killed themselves in the process.  That's why Fulmer is back, at least for a minute.

Football has changed in the last 50 years.  Everything changes.  I've seen the rise of the Wishbone, watched Jimmy Johnson kill it and replace it with the pro-style offense, watched Spurrier take that offense to Florida and build a national power where one had never existed, watched Rich Rodriguez introduce the Spread, and have watched as Chip Kelly and many others have designed versions of it built around every sort of read option imaginable.  It's an exciting time for offense.  I've also watched the rise of 7 on 7, "elite"
prospect camps, and the proliferation of recruiting services and player representatives starting at the middle school level.  I consider the cottage industry that has developed around these to be bad for the kids and bad for the game itself.

So where does this put Arkansas?  In great position to get back to its roots and use beautiful new players' facilities and a renovated stadium, plus an opportunity to be part a renaissance in a powerful SEC program, to attract the best players in its recruiting footprint.  The offensive philosophy will no longer work against the predominant style of football in the footprint.  The head coach and his staff will no longer be persona non grata in that footprint. 

None of this changes geography or demographics.  But those have always been disadvantages for Arkansas, even in the days of the SWC.  Arkansas succeeded then and at times in the SEC with a can-do, underdog mentality.  Arkansas was well-known at one time for swarming defense.  At times under Bielema it looked like Arkansas was playing with 8 defenders in a swiss-cheese defense.  It was bizarre and frustrating. 

Yes - Arkansas high school football must improve.  So must public education in Little Rock.  But there are just as many great athletes per capita in Arkansas as there are anywhere else.  The athletic department needs to do everything reasonably possible to insure they grow up Razorbacks fans.

If you don't understand why the BOT did what it just did and hired the guy they just hired, I can't help you much to understand why Arkansas is not doomed to become mired in the 60 year low of the last six years.  Some of the men on the Board are old enough to be my father. One is a former law partner of mine.  He says the BOT is the best board he has ever served on, and he is one smart man who loves Arkansas and has served on many boards.

You're right, I don't know who you are.  I respect you as an alum.  I am one myself, as have been many of my ancestors.  My grandfather's first game was Arkansas's 1909 win over LSU in Memphis.  He was a season ticket holder.  So was my father.  My avatar is a photo of me taken in 1963.  It hung in Papaw's den until he died.  I first read Orville Henry at breakfast with him before the Big Shootout in 1969.  I graduated from UA's law school and have been back three times to teach as a visiting professor.  I have lived in Nashville, Tennessee for 25 years where I represent recording artists, songwriters, record producers, record labels, and music publishing companies.  That is what I do.  An Arkansan and Razorback is who I am.  Now you know something about me. 

Long, but a really good read. One of the better reads in my 11 years of being on Hogville.
Thanks,
JME

[bphi11ips]

To be successful ANYWHERE, you have to have better players or at least players as good as the teams you play. Would Bama have been what they have been the last 10 years if they were signing recruiting classes in the mid 20's? Aub? USC? Ohio St? Of course not. Coaching is a part of it too, just look at A&M. Imagine what they woukd have been with classes only in the mid 20's ( I mean they were pretty much 8 wins a year with better classes ).

Also, how the class gets highly ranked matters too. CM could bring in a 5 star Qb and four 4 star wr's and have a decent ranking but does it help fix the defense? Same token, he could concentrate on defense sign a bunch of highly rated defenders, have a highly ranted class, but not bring in any offensive playmakers.

Recruiting rankings have the greatest correlation to success on the field when dealing with traditional powers.  Who would be able to predict that Ohio State, Alabama, Oklahoma and USC will be highly ranked in years to come? 

But how successful are recruiting rankings when predicting a rise at a particular school that is not a major power?  Ole Miss is the best example of a school that rose with the recruiting rankings.  Five-stars are the easiest players to identify, and Ole Miss signed a bunch for them in a hurry.  But who else is there?  Look back through the years and you will see a lot of upstarts like TCU whose recruiting rankings rose AFTER success, not before it.  Clemson is the same way.  You'll also see traditional powers with highly rated classes that fell on their face, like Tennessee under Butch Jones.  Some of that was coaching, some was overrated classes.

Recruiting is an inexact science polluted by self-fulfilling prophecies and the quest for the almighty dollar.  Money pollutes the process at all levels - from the way talent is identified to the way the information is published. Coaches worth a nickel take the information with a grain of salt and watch a lot of film.  The problem is that many succumb to fan pressure to sign highly recruited classes, especially at the P5 level where exhorbitant salaries bring enormous expectations.