Is My Math Correct?

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

It appears Arkansas is still mathematically eligible to win the SEC West.

IF Mississippi state beats LSU 2-1 (and 2-1 only) at Miss State next weekend, Mississippi State and LSU will have identical 19-11 confernce records.  If that happens, and Arkansas sweeps Texas A&M, Arkansas would finish as West champs by 1/2 game at 19-10.

I think that's right. Is it not?  To be in title contention the last series of the year is good feeling no matter the outcome.

[onebadrubi]

It appears Arkansas is still mathematically eligible to win the SEC West.

IF Mississippi state beats LSU 2-1 (and 2-1 only) at Miss State next weekend, Mississippi State and LSU will have identical 19-11 confernce records.  If that happens, and Arkansas sweeps Texas A&M, Arkansas would finish as West champs by 1/2 game at 19-10.

I think that's right. Is it not?  To be in title contention the last series of the year is good feeling no matter the outcome.

Lets just sweep A&M and see how it puts us.  That would sure be nice for post season seeding.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

Lets just sweep A&M and see how it puts us.  That would sure be nice for post season seeding.

Im just looking for a yes or no clarification as to whether that scenario is correct?

[BroyledNutts]

Yes it is

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

Yes it is

Thank you sir.

[WizardofhOgZ]

It appears Arkansas is still mathematically eligible to win the SEC West.

IF Mississippi state beats LSU 2-1 (and 2-1 only) at Miss State next weekend, Mississippi State and LSU will have identical 19-11 confernce records.  If that happens, and Arkansas sweeps Texas A&M, Arkansas would finish as West champs by 1/2 game at 19-10.

I think that's right. Is it not?  To be in title contention the last series of the year is good feeling no matter the outcome.

You are correct - just came here to post that after thinking about it, but you beat me to it.

Furthermore, we are out of the overall SEC race.  19-8 Florida and 18-9 Kentucky play a series that will produce at least one team with 20 SEC wins, with 10 or less losses; so we cannot match that.

But there is still a solid hope of hosting.  If we win 2 of 3 at A&M, we should end up in the top 15-16 RPI, and depending how the rest falls out, we'd definitely be in the mix to host.  MSU's RPI has now dropped to 24th (poor Auburn, who looked like a lock to host just 2 weeks ago, is now at 45 in the RPI, so their hosting hopes are gone), so unless they catch LSU, we may be ahead of them in the pecking order of non-SEC Division Champions who merit strong consideration.  Were we to sweep the Aggies, I think we host regardless - though you never know for sure until they announce the brackets.

So, there is still ample motivation for these Hogs to take care of business in College Station, even though it won't be easy.

[Kevin]

Hope I'm wrong but I don't think that the hogs have enough arms to make much of a splash in the post season.

negative post, who would have guessed

[jry04]

Hope I'm wrong but I don't think that the hogs have enough arms to make much of a splash in the post season.

Regionals will be the toughest, but all you have to do is win 3 games. There is no question Stephan and Knight are good enough to win on any given night if they have their good stuff. If Taco can build on the success he had against Vandy and stay healthy then he is going to be a solid #3 option. Reindl and Murphy give us good options out of the pen. The biggest thing we have to do in tournament play is get at least 5 or 6 innings from our starters. Our bullpen does not need to pitch more than our starters.

[BroyledNutts]

Hope I'm wrong but I don't think that the hogs have enough arms to make much of a splash in the post season.

Possibly not enough to make a dent if we make it to Omaha and get into the loser's bracket early, but there are a lot of unknowns to consider about post season play.

Who is in our bracket? Are there teams who have played tough competition and seen quality pitching all year?
Who are we paired with? The first day of a regional can produce wild results - win our game, and Saturday night's game might not require the whole bullpen to win.
What happens on Sunday? If you stay in the winner's bracket, winning Sunday gets a whole lot easier...the other two teams remaining are fighting for their lives, and will have to use everything to advance - extra innings elimination games are particularly good news for the team waiting for Sunday night's game.

Granted, you have to stay in the winner's bracket for an easier path to a regional win. The Hogs have the offense to survive and advance - they just can't afford horrible quick outings by starting pitching.
Supers are like any other weekend in the SEC.

[Hogs49ers]

If Missouri State hosts and we do not, I will lose it and not watch any postseason play...

Well hold that, I will watch postseason play, but will watch very angrily!

[ThisTeetsTaken]

Possibly not enough to make a dent if we make it to Omaha and get into the loser's bracket early, but there are a lot of unknowns to consider about post season play.

Who is in our bracket? Are there teams who have played tough competition and seen quality pitching all year?
Who are we paired with? The first day of a regional can produce wild results - win our game, and Saturday night's game might not require the whole bullpen to win.
What happens on Sunday? If you stay in the winner's bracket, winning Sunday gets a whole lot easier...the other two teams remaining are fighting for their lives, and will have to use everything to advance - extra innings elimination games are particularly good news for the team waiting for Sunday night's game.

Granted, you have to stay in the winner's bracket for an easier path to a regional win. The Hogs have the offense to survive and advance - they just can't afford horrible quick outings by starting pitching.
Supers are like any other weekend in the SEC.

DVH brought out the CREAM unis just in time for the tourneys.  Watch us catch fire!

[HogFansReunited]

If Missouri State hosts and we do not, I will lose it and not watch any postseason play...

Well hold that, I will watch postseason play, but will watch very angrily!

I am pretty sure that I heard that Missouri State won't be able to host because the stadium they use won't be available.  I may have heard wrong but I am pretty certain this is correct.  If it is correct and we are the number 2 seed in the same bracket as them, we will host.  Same thing happened in 2015.

[HogFansReunited]

DVH brought out the CREAM unis just in time for the tourneys.  Watch us catch fire!

Personally, I love the cream uniforms but I have heard that the players don't like them.

[Razorback7281]

I am pretty sure that I heard that Missouri State won't be able to host because the stadium they use won't be available.  I may have heard wrong but I am pretty certain this is correct.  If it is correct and we are the number 2 seed in the same bracket as them, we will host.  Same thing happened in 2015.

Springfield Cards play at home the weekend of June 2-4 so they are in the same situation they were in a couple years ago when they couldn't host the Super.

[HogFansReunited]

Springfield Cards play at home the weekend of June 2-4 so they are in the same situation they were in a couple years ago when they couldn't host the Super.

Thanks for clarification. I was pretty sure I heard that mentioned by someone earlier this year.

[Hawgzinbowlz]

Hope I'm wrong but I don't think that the hogs have enough arms to make much of a splash in the post season.

Dave's ability to mix and match may prove you wrong. The losers bracket will put us at a bigger disadvantage than in years past.
We have enough to win if we can get out in front in the winners bracket.
Our hitting may have to carry the day in some of the games.
Omaha is beautiful in June...And Dave likes it there.
" Arkansas was not expected to make it to the College World Series in 2015, especially after a slow start to the season left the Razorbacks sitting at .500 heading into April."

" GO OMAHOGS "

[tucsonhogfan]

While this thread started by exploring the way the Hogs could win the West, there are other favorable outcomes.  Looking at the possible outcomes for the LSU/Miss St series, I think we get the following:

LSU sweeps - The Hogs must win 1 game to finish 2nd in the West
LSU wins 2-1 - The Hogs must win 2 games to finish 2nd in the West
MSU wins 2-1 - The Hogs must win 3 to finish 1st in the West.  Second is not possible here.
MSU sweeps - The Hogs must win 2 games to finish 2nd

While winning the West would be great, a 2nd place finish would be huge as well as we would get a 1st round bye in the SEC Tournament.  That should also give the Hogs a slight advantage over the 3rd place team as far as hosting goes. 

So, if we win the series with A&M there is a very good possibility that we will end up in 2nd place in the West.

[WBOBO]

Let's just get an invite to the tourney and be humble.  Walk
softly and carry a big stick.  Last year sucked and I'm spoiled.

[WBOBO]

FDR had it right.

[theFlyingHog]

Let's just get an invite to the tourney and be humble.  Walk
softly and carry a big stick.  Last year sucked and I'm spoiled.

Just get an invite? We're talking about hosting.

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

Just get an invite? We're talking about hosting.

Dang right. Hosting is big. Spotlight stuff. That is why the TAM series reigns far the biggest of the year. Gotta love SEC baseball!

[WizardofhOgZ]

While this thread started by exploring the way the Hogs could win the West, there are other favorable outcomes.  Looking at the possible outcomes for the LSU/Miss St series, I think we get the following:

LSU sweeps - The Hogs must win 1 game to finish 2nd in the West
LSU wins 2-1 - The Hogs must win 2 games to finish 2nd in the West
MSU wins 2-1 - The Hogs must win 3 to finish 1st in the West.  Second is not possible here.
MSU sweeps - The Hogs must win 2 games to finish 2nd

While winning the West would be great, a 2nd place finish would be huge as well as we would get a 1st round bye in the SEC Tournament.  That should also give the Hogs a slight advantage over the 3rd place team as far as hosting goes. 

So, if we win the series with A&M there is a very good possibility that we will end up in 2nd place in the West.

Not 100% sure, but I believe the four byes go to the two division winners, and then the two best records among those who do not win their divisions.  So, a second place finish in the West - while a very positive result - does not guarantee us a bye, given the SEC records of UK and Florida.

[carter]

Here are the scenarios:
Ark goes 0-3 vs TA&M; then, no way for Ark. to finish 2nd and get a bye on first day of SEC Tourn.

Ark goes 1-2 vs TA&M and LSU goes 3-0 vs MissSt. - Ark finishes 2nd in West and gets bye on day one - All other LSU vs MissSt outcomes; then Ark. can not get a bye on day one
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               of SEC Tourn.

Ark goes 2-1 vs TA&M:  (1) LSU goes 3-0 - Ark finishes 2nd in West  (2) LSU goes 2-1 - Ark finishes 2nd in West  (3) LSU goes 1-2 - Ark finishes 3rd in West and Ark. can not
                                                                                                                                            get a bye on day one of SEC Tourn.  (4) LSU goes 0-3 - Ark finishes 2nd in West

Ark goes 3-0 vs TA&M; (1) LSU goes 3-0 - Ark finishes 2nd in West (2) LSU goes 2-1 - Ark finishes 2nd in West (3) LSU goes 1-2 - Ark finishes 1st in West (4) LSU goes 0-3 - Ark
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    finishes 2nd in West

[LJHOG]

negative post, who would have guessed

Negative yes it is.  Unfortunately just might be too accurate also.

[carter]

The scenarios post in not negative but it is very positive.  It shows 7 ways we can end up in second place and have a bye in the SEC Tourn.  And it shows one way that we can win the West outright.  All razorback fans will take any of these eight outcomes.

[jbell96]

Not 100% sure, but I believe the four byes go to the two division winners, and then the two best records among those who do not win their divisions.  So, a second place finish in the West - while a very positive result - does not guarantee us a bye, given the SEC records of UK and Florida.

I know your post was from Tuesday, but going in to this weekend, the only way we were going to finish below 5th was to get swept, and obviously that's not happening. Now that we've won one game, nobody in the East behind UK and UF can finish with a better record than us, so if we finish 2nd in the West we'll get a bye.

[Pig in the Pokey]

Let's just get an invite to the tourney and be humble.  Walk
softly and carry a big stick.  Last year sucked and I'm spoiled.

why do people say this? if you dont want to speculate, don't. why cant we?

[duck slayer]

It appears Arkansas is still mathematically eligible to win the SEC West.

IF Mississippi state beats LSU 2-1 (and 2-1 only) at Miss State next weekend, Mississippi State and LSU will have identical 19-11 confernce records.  If that happens, and Arkansas sweeps Texas A&M, Arkansas would finish as West champs by 1/2 game at 19-10.

I think that's right. Is it not?  To be in title contention the last series of the year is good feeling no matter the outcome.

So after yesterdays games, we keep pace with the Dogs, win or lose, the rest of the way then we finish second. If we both win out, then we win the West by the half game.  This sound right?

[bighog2255]

So after yesterdays games, we keep pace with the Dogs, win or lose, the rest of the way then we finish second. If we both win out, then we win the West by the half game.  This sound right?

That's correct. Sweep and win the west also gets us squarely in the national seed discussion.

[duck slayer]

That's correct. Sweep and win the west also gets us squarely in the national seed discussion.

Agreed, then settle that discussion in the SEC tournament. Go Hogs!!!!