Welcome to Hogville!      Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Early SEC Vegas lines

Started by ricepig, May 29, 2017, 07:34:42 pm

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

ricepig


daBoar

Quote from: ricepig on May 29, 2017, 07:34:42 pm
Looks like we're a -6 dog at home to TCU, and double digit to aTm.


https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/early-lines-sec-games-year-released-vegas-sports-book/
Gotta be the result of RW3's retirement and the view that the Hogs will have nearly zero offense returning.

 

Al Boarland

Quote from: ricepig on May 29, 2017, 07:34:42 pm
Looks like we're a -6 dog at home to TCU, and double digit to aTm.


https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/early-lines-sec-games-year-released-vegas-sports-book/

Interesting. I expected to be -3 against TCU. They must think we'll have a hard time stopping them.

upperdeck_hawg

I don't see how we're -10 vs A&M. They lost so many guys and got a new QB. We should cover this one easy if not win outright.
I don't hate the guy.  He's a great Hog, and a needed contributor.  I despise that he does not understand his role as a complimentary player puts an absolute ceiling on this team.

-ErieHog on Devo Davis

Poker_hog

Quote from: Al Boarland on May 29, 2017, 09:43:51 pm
Interesting. I expected to be -3 against TCU. They must think we'll have a hard time stopping them.

Exactly.  This is 8-10 points worse than I expected.  I know a lot can change, but if this is an accurate assessment of how we match up it's going to be another frustrating 6-7 win year.
Sometimes wrong, but never in doubt

ChicoHog

Quote from: upperdeck_hawg on May 29, 2017, 09:53:30 pm
I don't see how we're -10 vs A&M. They lost so many guys and got a new QB. We should cover this one easy if not win outright.
We are +10.  They are favored by 10.

The next article in that link was about a 4 star wide receiver in St. Louis.  I guess we never recruited him?  I wonder why?  Coaches feel confident in our WR group for next couple years I guess. 

Medic821

Last coach to take Hogs to SEC Football title game??    Not a Nutt lover..  Just sayin Get over it.  Hes gone.. Move on.

Al Boarland

Quote from: Poker_hog on May 29, 2017, 10:10:59 pm
Exactly.  This is 8-10 points worse than I expected.  I know a lot can change, but if this is an accurate assessment of how we match up it's going to be another frustrating 6-7 win year.
We could drop to 6, but I think we are around that 7/8 win mark.

ATU HOG

2 ways to look at this

We know how good our QB is and the potential this team has.  Defense cannot be worse than last year, but replacing a ton on offense.  I don't see A&M being great, so to me that's a huge slap in the face.

The other side of the boat is they know something and we are missing the boat.  Example... Auburn last year

HognotinMemphis

Quote from: daBoar on May 29, 2017, 07:38:49 pm
Gotta be the result of RW3's retirement and the view that the Hogs will have nearly zero offense returning.
That never matters with the Razorbacks. They had a bunch of returning starters last year and the defense was terrible.
I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

Al Boarland

Quote from: ATU HOG on May 30, 2017, 10:07:49 am
2 ways to look at this

We know how good our QB is and the potential this team has.  Defense cannot be worse than last year, but replacing a ton on offense.  I don't see A&M being great, so to me that's a huge slap in the face.

The other side of the boat is they know something and we are missing the boat.  Example... Auburn last year

The defense can be worse than last year. New system, confusion, lack of talent, better offenses.

Pig in the Pokey

Quote from: HoginMemphis on May 30, 2017, 10:09:29 am
That never matters with the Razorbacks. They had a bunch of returning starters last year and the defense was terrible.
every one who said, "What good are returning starters that got roasted all year?" were right.

We need to see some damn development.
At least we'll have an attacking defense. Our read-react/prevent-the-big-play defeense was gashed over and over. At least maybe we'll make some damn plays in between the long TDs surrendered.
I'm a defense guy. This last decade of Arkansas football, sans 2015, has been terribly frustrating to me. Even that top 10 defense from 2015 didnt really feel like it until we pulled the shut-outs. How do we go from that (back-2-back SOs) to that disgusting defensive display last year? unreal.
You must be on one if you think i aint on one! ¥420¥   «roastin da bomb in fayettenam» Purspirit Gang

Al Boarland

Quote from: Pig in the Pokey on May 30, 2017, 11:22:27 am
How do we go from that (back-2-back SOs) to that disgusting defensive display last year? unreal.
Talent.

 

Pig in the Pokey

Quote from: Al Boarland on May 30, 2017, 11:29:46 am
Talent.
it's the only answer. i guess 'coaching" and "system" apply, too, but yeah. Talent.
You must be on one if you think i aint on one! ¥420¥   «roastin da bomb in fayettenam» Purspirit Gang

phadedhawg

Seems about right.  I'd hate to set a line for Ark vs A&M.  Weird things happen when we play them.

ATU HOG

Quote from: Al Boarland on May 30, 2017, 11:10:19 am
The defense can be worse than last year. New system, confusion, lack of talent, better offenses.
It can't be worse than last year.  It might be as bad but surely it can't be worse.  Get what you're saying but that was the worst defense we've ever fielded.

Al Boarland

Quote from: ATU HOG on May 30, 2017, 12:52:42 pm
It can't be worse than last year.  It might be as bad but surely it can't be worse.  Get what you're saying but that was the worst defense we've ever fielded.

A possible outcome is the defense does not improve with offenses improving.  QB play will should be taking a step forward, so it's a real possibility that the numbers can look worse than 2016.

Hogwild

QuoteArkansas vs. Texas A&M -10 (Dallas)

Alabama -10.5 at Texas A&M
Texas A&M at LSU -12

so they have us as a double digit dog, to a team that is a double digit dog to 2 other division teams? That doesn't seem right.

Paul

Quote from: Poker_hog on May 29, 2017, 10:10:59 pm
Exactly.  This is 8-10 points worse than I expected.  I know a lot can change, but if this is an accurate assessment of how we match up it's going to be another frustrating 6-7 win year.
Vegas lines are made to entice the population at large to bet evenly on both sides.  You can except these lines to shrink as kickoff nears.  I wouldn't lay the spread on either game at this point but I may take the points now.

widespreadsooie

I wouldn't touch the A&M spread but the TCU spread is more than surprising. What's going on at TCU to make them 6 point faves in Fayetteville?

wildhogman

Quote from: widespreadsooie on May 30, 2017, 08:45:55 pm
I wouldn't touch the A&M spread but the TCU spread is more than surprising. What's going on at TCU to make them 6 point faves in Fayetteville?
Its not so much whats going on at TCU. Its history. Rightnow history says we destroyed Texs tech at their place and then laid and egg the next year against them. We beat TCU last year at their place so history says we should lay an egg again. The betting public will look at that. The ones not emotionally vested in the game anyway

onebadrubi

Quote from: wildhogman on May 31, 2017, 05:58:35 am
Its not so much whats going on at TCU. Its history. Rightnow history says we destroyed Texs tech at their place and then laid and egg the next year against them. We beat TCU last year at their place so history says we should lay an egg again. The betting public will look at that. The ones not emotionally vested in the game anyway

Because it happened once does not make it a pattern in history to help predict whats to come...

widespreadsooie

Quote from: wildhogman on May 31, 2017, 05:58:35 am
Its not so much whats going on at TCU. Its history. Rightnow history says we destroyed Texs tech at their place and then laid and egg the next year against them. We beat TCU last year at their place so history says we should lay an egg again. The betting public will look at that. The ones not emotionally vested in the game anyway

I don't think one occurrence justifies history in this context. You're probably right though about the betting public looking at that, they'll draw erroneous conclusions off anything. 

Hoggish1

Key word connected to line is "early."  Vegas allows a fool to get his money on the table as early as he wants...

 

HognotinMemphis

Quote from: Pig in the Pokey on May 30, 2017, 11:22:27 am
every one who said, "What good are returning starters that got roasted all year?" were right.

We need to see some damn development.
At least we'll have an attacking defense. Our read-react/prevent-the-big-play defeense was gashed over and over. At least maybe we'll make some damn plays in between the long TDs surrendered.
I'm a defense guy. This last decade of Arkansas football, sans 2015, has been terribly frustrating to me. Even that top 10 defense from 2015 didnt really feel like it until we pulled the shut-outs. How do we go from that (back-2-back SOs) to that disgusting defensive display last year? unreal.
I am with you. I will take a 13-7 game for a win any day over an offensive shootout. I would love to see defense every year like the Hogs had in '75 and '77 with a bunch of low scoring games even if the offense was average.
I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

wildhogman

Quote from: onebadrubi on May 31, 2017, 11:55:52 am
Because it happened once does not make it a pattern in history to help predict whats to come...
Are you kidding me?  lol  In this microwave world, if something happens one time most people under age 35 think it is history. If it happened 6 months ago. most under 25 think it is ancient history. Thus since it happened almost 9 months ago or whatever, a lot of people age 25 to 35 will think, "oh yeah, the hogs will blow this one just like they do 'every year'.  None will look up actual facts lol. 

hogcard1964

Huh?

How are we an underdog to TCU?

go hogues

Quote from: Leadbelly on September 24, 2019, 09:05:22 pm<br />Dude, our back has been against the wall so long, we are now on the other side of the wall!<br />

hogcard1964


Al Boarland

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 12, 2017, 08:37:39 am
Huh?

How are we an underdog to TCU?

I haven't read much on the expectations for TCU, but you will be hard pressed to find someone that expects the Hogs to be very good this season.  That might have something to do with it.

RME

Quote from: wildhogman on May 31, 2017, 05:58:35 am
Its not so much whats going on at TCU. Its history. Rightnow history says we destroyed Texs tech at their place and then laid and egg the next year against them. We beat TCU last year at their place so history says we should lay an egg again. The betting public will look at that. The ones not emotionally vested in the game anyway

Quote from: wildhogman on June 11, 2017, 01:15:37 pm
Are you kidding me?  lol  In this microwave world, if something happens one time most people under age 35 think it is history. If it happened 6 months ago. most under 25 think it is ancient history. Thus since it happened almost 9 months ago or whatever, a lot of people age 25 to 35 will think, "oh yeah, the hogs will blow this one just like they do 'every year'.  None will look up actual facts lol.

Oh wow. Wow.

hogcard1964

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 12, 2017, 11:15:14 am
I haven't read much on the expectations for TCU, but you will be hard pressed to find someone that expects the Hogs to be very good this season.  That might have something to do with it.

I've yet to see TCU picked to be better than 8-4 this season.   ...within a shi^^% conference.

Redhogs

Quote from: Poker_hog on May 29, 2017, 10:10:59 pm
Exactly.  This is 8-10 points worse than I expected.  I know a lot can change, but if this is an accurate assessment of how we match up it's going to be another frustrating 6-7 win year.
" I came here to win the SEC!" ....season 5 coming up.  Funny stuff.
Will I live long enough to see us win again? Will any of us?

PonderinHog

Quote from: Pig in the Pokey on May 30, 2017, 11:22:27 am
every one who said, "What good are returning starters that got roasted all year?" were right.

We need to see some damn development.
At least we'll have an attacking defense. Our read-react/prevent-the-big-play defeense was gashed over and over. At least maybe we'll make some damn plays in between the long TDs surrendered.
I'm a defense guy. This last decade of Arkansas football, sans 2015, has been terribly frustrating to me. Even that top 10 defense from 2015 didnt really feel like it until we pulled the shut-outs. How do we go from that (back-2-back SOs) to that disgusting defensive display last year? unreal.
Because that top ten defense was in 2014.

gchamblee

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 12, 2017, 08:37:39 am
Huh?

How are we an underdog to TCU?

You proved you are horrible at determining how good a football team is when you called TCU a trash program. I get that you are confused, but asking someone to explain it to you is just going to waste their time.

GuvHog

Quote from: gchamblee on June 13, 2017, 07:00:28 am
You proved you are horrible at determining how good a football team is when you called TCU a trash program. I get that you are confused, but asking someone to explain it to you is just going to waste their time.

I agree that TCU is not a trash program but they are not close to what they were a few years back.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

Hogwild

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 12, 2017, 11:56:26 am
I've yet to see TCU picked to be better than 8-4 this season.   ...within a shi^^% conference.

ESPN FPI has them favored in every game but 1 (OU), 61% chance of defeating the Hogs
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/2628/tcu-horned-frogs


Dallas news questions whether they will be a one loss team
https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/tcuhornedfrogs/2017/05/04/game-game-predictions-can-tcu-one-loss-school-2017

hogcard1964

Quote from: GuvHog on June 13, 2017, 08:40:01 am
I agree that TCU is not a trash program but they are not close to what they were a few years back.

They're not what they used to be.  This is why I think this is a comfortable win for us.

hogcard1964


RME

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 13, 2017, 11:38:06 am
They're not what they used to be.  This is why I think this is a comfortable win for us.

So how much are you betting on Arkansas at +6? Not Hogville betting. Cold, hard cash betting.

Al Boarland

Quote from: hogcard1964 on June 13, 2017, 11:38:06 am
They're not what they used to be.  This is why I think this is a comfortable win for us.

We aren't what we used to be either.

GuvHog

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 13, 2017, 12:22:45 pm
We aren't what we used to be either.

Granted, the hogs aren't what they were in 2011 but I still believe they'll be better than they were last year on both sides of the ball.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

Al Boarland

Quote from: GuvHog on June 13, 2017, 01:09:54 pm
Granted, the hogs aren't what they were in 2011 but I still believe they'll be better than they were last year on both sides of the ball.

That's what we hope. I'm sure fans of every team have convinced themselves they will be better this season than they were last season. It's what fans do.

gchamblee

Quote from: Al Boarland on June 13, 2017, 01:53:15 pm
That's what we hope. I'm sure fans of every team have convinced themselves they will be better this season than they were last season. It's what fans do.

Question is, are we the only fan base to have "realists" to keep us grounded? Rhetorical question, I know the answer.

Polecat

Quote from: gchamblee on June 13, 2017, 01:56:33 pm
Question is, are we the only fan base to have "realists" to keep us grounded? Rhetorical question, I know the answer.
Love your avi. One of my favorite bands ever
Arkansas born and raised. 1999 UA alum

gchamblee

Quote from: Polecat on June 13, 2017, 03:00:57 pm
Love your avi. One of my favorite bands ever

Much respect. I honestly wondered if anyone would have a clue. One of my favorite bands of all time. Even the new stuff is awesome.

hobhog

I'll take Hogs and points n both.

TNRazorbacker

Quote from: Al Boarland on May 30, 2017, 02:04:17 am
We could drop to 6, but I think we are around that 7/8 win mark.

8 wins will be an accomplishment this year. 6-7 much more likely even before losing RW.

hogcard1964

Quote from: gchamblee on June 13, 2017, 03:15:59 pm
Much respect. I honestly wondered if anyone would have a clue. One of my favorite bands of all time. Even the new stuff is awesome.

+1000

Cantrell's good.

hawganatic

Betting lines aren't designed to predict the winner.  They are designed to get equal amounts of money on both sides of the bet.  That's how they stay in business and make $$$.

We can't even get our own fanbase to believe in this team.   How is Vegas going to get anybody else to bet on the team unless there is an outlandish betting line?