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Author Topic: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West  (Read 2719 times)

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RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #50 on: July 11, 2017, 02:49:54 pm »

The reasoning  about South Carolina was posted above by someone else.

Miss State will have a good QB but not a great deal of talent around him.

Based on what? Have you looked at their projected returning starters playing time and statistics compared to ours?
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GuvHog

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #51 on: July 11, 2017, 02:55:38 pm »

Based on what? Have you looked at their projected returning starters playing time and statistics compared to ours?

Based on the fact that he didn't have much talent around him last year and they don't have an exceptionally great freshman class coming in. Remember, Miss State got lucky 2 year ago and beat the Hogs in DWRRS on a late blocked kick due to O line issues but that isn't happening this year.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #52 on: July 11, 2017, 02:57:44 pm »

Based on the fact that he didn't have much talent around him last year and they don't have an exceptionally great freshman class coming in.

Man. Can't beat that logic.
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CFB_Fanatic

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #53 on: July 11, 2017, 03:07:17 pm »

I believe a lot of the "wait and see" crowd, me included, are unsure as to whether or not we can actually finish more games in the second half. This has been one of our biggest Achilles' heel over the past several years, but most glaringly last season. There were at least three games-TAM (AGAIN), Mizzou and the bowl game against VT- that could/should have gone the other way. While we've most certainly had our issues on both sides of the ball, especially defense, it's the inability to "go for the throat and stomp on it" that has repeatedly been a major problem for the Hogs. Do we finally "GET IT" and develop a nastier streak or do we fall back into the same old (bad) habits? Therein lies the rub.....

Very true. We also had 2 games that we won that we could have easily lost in the final minutes as well, so we could've been a 9 win team or a 5 win team, and we wound up in the middle
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #54 on: July 11, 2017, 04:09:02 pm »

I believe a lot of the "wait and see" crowd, me included, are unsure as to whether or not we can actually finish more games in the second half. This has been one of our biggest Achilles' heel over the past several years, but most glaringly last season. There were at least three games-TAM (AGAIN), Mizzou and the bowl game against VT- that could/should have gone the other way. While we've most certainly had our issues on both sides of the ball, especially defense, it's the inability to "go for the throat and stomp on it" that has repeatedly been a major problem for the Hogs. Do we finally "GET IT" and develop a nastier streak or do we fall back into the same old (bad) habits? Therein lies the rub.....

Makes sense. I'm all in for the Hogs every year but I agree with you about what I see as an inability to find that, "go for the throat" mentality when we have a team down. Over the last three years we probably could have/should have won 8 more games than we have, all legit reasons and/or excuses aside. So while I love our Hogs and I am excited to get the season started, I want to see the team play as they area cable of playing or heaven forbid, play inspired over-their-heads football on a consistent basis. And yes, finish games. If they don't I won't abandon them...the Hogs are my team. But if the facts end up being that in year 5 Bielema can't produce 9 wins or at least 8 with the four that we lose being all very competitive games where we aren't just blowing it, then I will be in the camp that Long needs to start looking for a replacement for 2019.
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hogman64

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #55 on: July 11, 2017, 04:17:29 pm »

"It does not what"? Yes I agree, he has 4 years here and is going into his 5th season and I agree that we need to see more success than we have had in the past. OK? Got that out of the way.

That doesn't alter the fact that no one really knows what to expect which is why I believe that they choose the safe pick of anywhere from 5-7 to 9-4 (Phil Steele) and they all fall within that range. That alone tells you that they don't have any idea about how to accurately project what they expect the Hogs to produce. And really, most of us have no idea either. The Anti-Bielema crowd will as usual have a more negative projection. The Bielema homers will have a more favorable projection and others will be hanging around with the prognosticators in a "wait and see" mode. This last group is probably the biggest group by far.

they don't know what ANYONE  is going to do, not just us but they are putting us thru the same criteria they do every other team , they  didn't just decide to play it "safe" with Arkansas  that is ridiculous.......Steele does extensive analysis and it doesn't mean he is going to be right but he does the same thing  regarding every team, so his Hog prediction is no "safer" than his Alabama  prediction to him.  He has us 5th in the west and would have us sixth except he thinks Ole Miss will tank their season because of no bowl......
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colbs

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #56 on: July 11, 2017, 04:18:52 pm »

Man. Can't beat that logic.
What's your thoughts on MSU?
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hogman64

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #57 on: July 11, 2017, 04:26:07 pm »

Very true. We also had 2 games that we won that we could have easily lost in the final minutes as well, so we could've been a 9 win team or a 5 win team, and we wound up in the middle

well one of those 2 games you are talking about us winning we had to pull  out a miraculous win because of  horrible second half play that let TCU back in the game  because we folded after a missed FG. So you can almost put that game in with A&M,Mizzou and Tech.......
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AugustaHog

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #58 on: July 11, 2017, 04:26:56 pm »

Most expect a resurgence in the SEC. Steele certainly does. QB play will be improved across the board. I don't see the deep flaws for LSU and AU. Can you provide some clarity on that? I understand LSU is limited at QB, but I'm not aware of any other deficiencies. They are young, but talented on D and have excellent coordinators. AU returns a lot of guys and potentially significantly upgraded at QB.
I'm not sold on Stidham, but offense has never been AU's problem.  The D was good against the run, but they lost some beef up front.  Their pass D was pretty mediocre last season.  They kicked the crap out of us, but other than that game I wasn't terribly impressed with them.  That had some to do with them and a ton to do with us.  They are probably going to be better than us, but I just don't see them as being as tough as they were several years ago.  Same thing with LSU.  They lost some key guys too.  I think both schools re-load with studs pretty easily.  Etling is God-awful.  If Guice gets contained, they will struggle to win.  Both coaches are guys that I would cringe at having at the helm.  Gus and Ed O are flawed coaches, no doubt about it.  All that being said, we have plenty of flaws too and less talent to cover them up.  They will be good teams, just not on the level that they were when the West was at it's peak.  It's still going to be a tough division with no completely terrible teams. 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #59 on: July 11, 2017, 04:27:41 pm »

they don't know what ANYONE  is going to do, not just us but they are putting us thru the same criteria they do every other team , they  didn't just decide to play it "safe" with Arkansas  that is ridiculous.......Steele does extensive analysis and it doesn't mean he is going to be right but he does the same thing  regarding every team, so his Hog prediction is no "safer" than his Alabama  prediction to him.  He has us 5th in the west and would have us sixth except he thinks Ole Miss will tank their season because of no bowl......

I'll disagree about the conclusions that they come to and it does vary from team to team. For Arkansas, when Bielema took over they predicted we would be a lot better than we were. They were wrong. In 2014 after seeing 2013, they picked us to finish last in the West. That was wrong. After seeing 2014 they picked us to contend for the West in 2015. Wrong again. They were pretty right last year, but no one, including Bielema or us saw the Auburn loss or the LSU loss happening the way they did, let alone the melt downs at Missouri and Va Tech. In reality, they should have been really wrong about us. So that said, because of the inconsistency of our performance, I can understand why they pick us where they do, just like I understand why they pick Alabama the way they do.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #60 on: July 11, 2017, 04:30:27 pm »

Based on the fact that he didn't have much talent around him last year and they don't have an exceptionally great freshman class coming in. Remember, Miss State got lucky 2 year ago and beat the Hogs in DWRRS on a late blocked kick due to O line issues but that isn't happening this year.

I'll look when I get a chance, but I'm sure their recruiting classes aren't far from ours.
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hogman64

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #61 on: July 11, 2017, 04:36:47 pm »

I'll disagree about the conclusions that they come to and it does vary from team to team. For Arkansas, when Bielema took over they predicted we would be a lot better than we were. They were wrong. In 2014 after seeing 2013, they picked us to finish last in the West. That was wrong. After seeing 2014 they picked us to contend for the West in 2015. Wrong again. They were pretty right last year, but no one, including Bielema or us saw the Auburn loss or the LSU loss happening the way they did, let alone the melt downs at Missouri and Va Tech. In reality, they should have been really wrong about us. So that said, because of the inconsistency of our performance, I can understand why they pick us where they do, just like I understand why they pick Alabama the way they do.

I still  say you are sounding  ridiculous, he picks us where he does because that is what his analysis tells him , I don't care how wrong or right he has been in the past, he  does his analysis of the Hogs just like he does every other team. nothing more nothing less....obviously  he misses on a lot of teams every year, but the facts show he has been the best at his predicting  and he sees us as 5th in the west.    he isn't picking us there to be "safe".. doesn't mean we cant win it, if tons of things went our way, just  his professional opinion that we wont finish in the upper half of the west.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #62 on: July 11, 2017, 04:44:12 pm »

Based on the fact that he didn't have much talent around him last year and they don't have an exceptionally great freshman class coming in. Remember, Miss State got lucky 2 year ago and beat the Hogs in DWRRS on a late blocked kick due to O line issues but that isn't happening this year.

2017 Hogs 27 St. 24 (Current)
2016 Hogs 23 St. 29
2015 Hogs 22 St. 18
2014 Hogs 29 St. 36
2013 Hogs 23 St. 24

Source: 24/7

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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #63 on: July 11, 2017, 04:47:07 pm »

Based on the fact that he didn't have much talent around him last year and they don't have an exceptionally great freshman class coming in. Remember, Miss State got lucky 2 year ago and beat the Hogs in DWRRS on a late blocked kick due to O line issues but that isn't happening this year.

I'll just say that it might have been luck and maybe not. Miss State has improved their talent, whether through recruiting or development. From 2012-2017 Miss State has had 6 Offensive Draftees (not UDFA's) go to the NFL and 10 Defensive Draftees. Now that is less than us over the same period of time, but Mullen is a good coach, so I'm not sure that I would dismiss them so easily. This year they have 7 offensive starters and 6 on defense that return plus 49 lettermen, 26 of which will be Seniors. 
« Last Edit: July 11, 2017, 05:32:04 pm by MuskogeeHogFan »
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GuvHog

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #64 on: July 11, 2017, 04:48:28 pm »

I'll look when I get a chance, but I'm sure their recruiting classes aren't far from ours.

Let me put it like this: With a very suspect O Line, the Hogs managed to score 58 points against Miss State's defense last year.

Miss state was able to put up only 42 points against an extraordinarily bad Hog defense.

Do you seriously believe Miss state will be THAT dramatically improved and Arkansas won't be to the point that the Bulldogs will beat the Hogs in DWRRS???
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Al Boarland

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #65 on: July 11, 2017, 05:00:45 pm »

Let me put it like this: With a very suspect O Line, the Hogs managed to score 58 points against Miss State's defense last year.

Miss state was able to put up only 42 points against an extraordinarily bad Hog defense.

Do you seriously believe Miss state will be THAT dramatically improved and Arkansas won't be to the point that the Bulldogs will beat the Hogs in DWRRS???

I think the game is a toss up at this point. I also think people have an archaic way of thinking about the MS schools. Our program is not head and shoulders above their programs and games against them are not automatic W's.
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bigpigpimpin

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #66 on: July 11, 2017, 05:05:50 pm »

It's pretty simple, really. 14 teams in the league, and we average about 10th in recruiting.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #67 on: July 11, 2017, 05:26:41 pm »

What's your thoughts on MSU?

I think they're definitely worthy of some respect and shouldn't be chalked up as an automatic W. Guv doesn't want to look at stats or figures (what's new) and see they're returning the same amount of starters as we are, and they really only lost one stud receiver from last year in regards to skill positions.

Mullen is a good coach, and Fitzgerald put up borderline better numbers than Dak did his sophomore year. They're not a pushover. Do I think we'll beat them? Yeah I do. Is it a sure thing? No. No SEC opponent is a sure thing.
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bennyl08

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #68 on: July 11, 2017, 05:31:12 pm »

Returning starters:

Team   Tot.   Off.   Def.   QB?

Georgia   17   7   10   Yes
Kentucky   17   8   9   Yes
S. Car   16   10   6   Yes
Vanderbilt   16   9   7   Yes
Auburn   15   8   7   Yes
Missouri   15   10   5   Yes
Florida   14   9   5   Yes
Tennessee   14   7   7   No
Arkansas   13   7   6   Yes
Miss State   13   7   6   Yes
Texas A&M12   5   7   No
Alabama   11   6   5   Yes
LSU           11   6   5      Yes
Ole Miss   11   5   6   No

Would love your reasoning as to why South Carolina "won't improve enough" to potentially beat us, and how Mississippi State "will be about the same."

Well, I'm not Guv, but look at what SC accomplished last year. Again, SC could improve 100 spots on offense and not be a top 10 offense. Last year, they managed 347.5 yards per game on offense and gave up 411.9 on defense. For comparison, we managed 428.4 ypg on offense and gave up 426.6 yards per game on defense. They were outgained an average of 64.4 yards per game whereas we outgained our opponents by 1.8 yards despite having a historically bad defense for our program.

Maybe yards don't matter. Points are what win games. Their defense gave up 5.7 more points per game than their offense was able to score. Our defense also gave up more points than our offense, but by 0.8 points per game. If they improve by 5 points per game and we improve by 1, we will still be better than them. If they improve by 5 and we improve by 0.1 (they have a 50 fold improvement on our program), then it becomes a true toss up. Muschamp has not shown anything in the SEC to be capable of a 50-fold improvement over another SEC team. To the contrary. It would be akin to having a coach crash and burn at LSU or Bama coming to a program like Arkansas and people suddenly thinking he will have better success here than was capable of having at the school that had a lot more advantages. And it isn't like his failure in the swamp was a long time ago or something and he has suddenly improved.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #69 on: July 11, 2017, 05:34:48 pm »

Their defense gave up 5.7 more points per game than their offense was able to score. Our defense also gave up more points than our offense, but by 0.8 points per game. If they improve by 5 points per game and we improve by 1, we will still be better than them. If they improve by 5 and we improve by 0.1 (they have a 50 fold improvement on our program), then it becomes a true toss up.

That's a great stat and analysis. Good way to look at it.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #70 on: July 11, 2017, 05:42:16 pm »

Well, I'm not Guv, but look at what SC accomplished last year. Again, SC could improve 100 spots on offense and not be a top 10 offense. Last year, they managed 347.5 yards per game on offense and gave up 411.9 on defense. For comparison, we managed 428.4 ypg on offense and gave up 426.6 yards per game on defense. They were outgained an average of 64.4 yards per game whereas we outgained our opponents by 1.8 yards despite having a historically bad defense for our program.

Maybe yards don't matter. Points are what win games. Their defense gave up 5.7 more points per game than their offense was able to score. Our defense also gave up more points than our offense, but by 0.8 points per game. If they improve by 5 points per game and we improve by 1, we will still be better than them. If they improve by 5 and we improve by 0.1 (they have a 50 fold improvement on our program), then it becomes a true toss up. Muschamp has not shown anything in the SEC to be capable of a 50-fold improvement over another SEC team. To the contrary. It would be akin to having a coach crash and burn at LSU or Bama coming to a program like Arkansas and people suddenly thinking he will have better success here than was capable of having at the school that had a lot more advantages. And it isn't like his failure in the swamp was a long time ago or something and he has suddenly improved.

Good post and opinion, Benny. Of course, there isn't anything to say that they won't make huge improvement and play way better, but they were pretty miserable on offense last year and defensively, they didn't apply any more pressure to opponents than we did. Better run defense than us and more INT's than us, but they gave up one TD in every 12.2 pass completions, the second worst in the East behind Kentucky in that particular category.
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AugustaHog

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #71 on: July 11, 2017, 06:22:28 pm »

A couple points to be made here regarding MSU and USCe.  That was a really weird game vs. MSU.  Both QBs had career days and I don't think a lick of defense was played in the second half.  Fitzgerald is a good QB who can make some big-time plays.  I just feel like AA is fully capable of out-playing him.  If that happens we win that thing in DWRRS 9 times out of 10.  I can't speak to their improvement or what to expect from them this season.  I still would expect them to leave the state with an L.  USCe is difficult to judge looking at the stats from last season because they were a totally different team once Bentley became the QB.  The offense perked up a bit with him at the helm.  Although, most of those games were vs. the weak East, UMass, USF, W. Carolina, and Clemson.  In the 7 games that he played, only Clemson and UF had defenses that were of any count.  He only broke 225 yds twice and those were vs. USF and Mizzou.  Neither of those teams are going to be confused for the '85 Bears.  He seems like an accurate passer, especially against mediocre defenses.  The only time he completed less than 60% of his passes was against Clemson and UF.  He is truly the wild card in that game.  They will have a good D and a decent running attack.  The OL may get the guy killed though.  He is the type that will give us fits if the underneath throws are there and we fail to pressure him.  I'm not marking that down as a W, but we will kick ourselves if we don't get that win.  4-4 in the league is possible, but winning games vs. the MS schools and the East teams is going to be a must. 
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bennyl08

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #72 on: July 11, 2017, 07:23:56 pm »

SC's first 6 games, pre Bentley at QB.
299.5 Offensive ypg
14 Oppg
395.7 Defensive ypg
20.1 Dppg

SC's last 7 games, Bentley at QB
384.4 Oypg
26.6 Oppg
425.9 Dypg
31.9 Dppg

The first 6 games included Vandy, MSU, ECU, UK, aTm, and UGA. Two good SEC teams, two bad, one middle, and a solid OoC.

The back 7 included UMass, Tenner, Mizz, UF, WCU, Clemson, USF. One terrible OoC, one weak OoC, one strong OoC, along with 3 SEC games that range from middle of the pack to good as well as a lower tier bowl opponent than we faced.

Which half of the schedule is harder it tough to say. Their bye week perfectly splits the two halves as well.

Their offensive performance definitely increased, but their defense took a nosedive as well. Anybody touting the offensive improvement with Brantley as a sign for improvement would need to also look at the defensive regression during the season.

First half, they were out yarded by 96.2 ypg and outscored by 6.1 ppg. In the back half, they were out yarded by "only" 41.5 ypg and outscored by 5.3. So, improvement in the net.
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Großer Kriegschwein

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #73 on: July 11, 2017, 07:34:19 pm »

What was their average possession time on scoring drives? Defense getting winded? Or maybe teams figuring out Muschamp's defensive schemes?

Those two don't have to be related, but often times they are.
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HamSammich

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #74 on: July 11, 2017, 07:34:26 pm »

He is pretty high on the QB, OL and expects the defense to be better.  However, it doesn't appear that all that elevates us in the West standings when it's all said and done.  I just don't get, with the expected improvement, why the expectation is middle of the pack.  What can CBB do going forward if the above is true to push the program forward.  If those positional groups are strong that should put us in contention this year yet that isn't the expectation. 

So, if not now then when and how?

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/philsteele/2017/07/10/sec-west-preview


You just don't get it? Really? I mean really?


I've said for 8 months (before the 'experts') that CBB wins seven and beats Bama. I still stand by that. I think beating Bama gets him an extension and that is probably warranted
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bennyl08

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #75 on: July 11, 2017, 07:57:54 pm »

What was their average possession time on scoring drives? Defense getting winded? Or maybe teams figuring out Muschamp's defensive schemes?

Those two don't have to be related, but often times they are.

Don't have time for all of that today. Maybe musk is willing to take a crack at it.

Or if you want to do it yourself, go to SC's football page on ESPN, schedule, change to 2016, then go to the play by play tab. It breaks it down by drives and you can quickly glean how the drive ended and the duration of the drive without having to expand all the plays in that drive. There might be a better, easier place to get that info, but that's how I'd go about it.

Cheers.
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Großer Kriegschwein

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #76 on: July 11, 2017, 08:01:30 pm »

Don't have time for all of that today. Maybe musk is willing to take a crack at it.

Or if you want to do it yourself, go to SC's football page on ESPN, schedule, change to 2016, then go to the play by play tab. It breaks it down by drives and you can quickly glean how the drive ended and the duration of the drive without having to expand all the plays in that drive. There might be a better, easier place to get that info, but that's how I'd go about it.

Cheers.

Meh. I have twins, therefore no time for that.
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Dominicanhog

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #77 on: July 11, 2017, 08:20:02 pm »

2017 Hogs 27 St. 24 (Current)
2016 Hogs 23 St. 29
2015 Hogs 22 St. 18
2014 Hogs 29 St. 36
2013 Hogs 23 St. 24

Source: 24/7

thought we lost on a blocked kick BA's sr yr..
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colbs

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #78 on: July 11, 2017, 09:10:07 pm »

thought we lost on a blocked kick BA's sr yr..
Those are the recruiting rankings.
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The ColonelHog

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #79 on: July 11, 2017, 11:34:41 pm »

South Carolina. The Hogs won't lose in Columbia, SC and they aren't going to lose to Missouri in DWRRS either.

I'll go out even farther on a limb in some peoples eyes: I believe there is a very strong possibility that when Arkansas takes the field in Bryant Denny Stadium to play Alabama, the Hogs will be 5-0.

A lot of people are underestimating the Hogs this season. This is Bret's 5th season as Hog HC, his back is close to being up against a wall, and he as well as his assistants sense the urgency of the situation. The players realize it too and they be more than ready when they line up for the opening kick off against FAMU. I wouldn't want to be one of FAMU's players because the Hogs will be looking to take a years worth of frustration over how last season ended out on those guys. It ain't gonna be pretty from FAMU's standpoint.

I agree with Guv.  I think we will be 5-0 going into Bama and at worst will finish the regular season 9-3.    I'll take 8-4 as I have said all spring and so far this summer, but I think 9-3 is on the money.  I'm not a BB lover or hater and don't wear rose colored glasses.  9-3 just smell right this season!

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bennyl08

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #80 on: July 12, 2017, 12:45:03 am »

5-0 is a very reasonable expectation for heading into the Bama game.

The two cupcake games we should win by quite a lot.

SC will be our next toughest game, and I've gone over why we should win that game. As an SEC road game, by no means am I saying this is a guaranteed win. However, this will be by far our easiest SEC game of the season. If we lose this game, it will not bode well.

Next up in difficulty is TCU. TCU should be a much tougher game than SC. Coming into last season, both teams were in a similar position in terms of returning and green talent. Both teams played neck and neck, and we won in their place. This season, our rosters and depth charts are again in a similar situation. However, the game is at our place this time. While I think we've both improved similarly, I think our raw talent is better than theirs and we end up with a bit more breathing room this year than last year.

The toughest game to win during this stretch is obviously the aggies. In terms of raw talent, they might be the 4th best team we play. 4th to 6th for sure. From 2009-2011, we beat the aggies, but they were closing the gap. In the forgotten year, they beat us senseless, but that was the only time that we have not been readily in the game. 2013, a still bad year for us, we were within 1 possession in the 4th quarter and lost by 12. 2014, we were up by 14 for most of the 2nd half, the game went to OT and we lost. 2015 similarly went to OT. Last year we were again w/in a td of them in the 4th quarter before collapsing to lose by 21. People bring up that we have lost 5 straight as though they have been an insurmountable team. Under Bielema, there hasn't been a single game where we haven't been within one possession into the 4th quarter. Half the games under Bielema have gone into OT with them. We haven't gotten over the hump, that is for sure. However, they have not been heads and shoulders above us. We have largely shot ourselves in the foot against them. This is the only game that I wouldn't currently favor the hogs, but I'd still consider it in the range of being a toss-up and this is before considering their team. There has been discontent amongst their team, leading to a loss of qb's and rumors of hot seats. Yet again, they'll be breaking in a new qb. They lost the #1 overall draft pick. They previously had several elite OL players that they lost in past years and have not been able to replace. This is still a talented team, but next year's team does not project to have the elite talent (Manziel, Evans, Miller, Garrett, ...) that others have had.

Finally, as for the alignment of those first 5 games, we open with a tune up, we get a challenging game at home, a bye week to analyze how the first challenge went before heading over to a neutral site for our most challenging game of the opening 5. After that, we get a real cupcake to rest up a bit, make some more tuning, before having our first true road game against the very forgiving game cocks.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #81 on: July 12, 2017, 06:17:59 am »

What was their average possession time on scoring drives? Defense getting winded? Or maybe teams figuring out Muschamp's defensive schemes?

Those two don't have to be related, but often times they are.

I'm not looking at TOP but here is what I did notice.

Their first 6 games included 3 at Home against E. Carolina, A&M and Georgia and 3 Away at Vandy, Miss St and Kentucky. They were 1-2 at Home and 1-2 Away in the those first 6 games. Their average margin of victory was by 4 points and their average margin of loss was by 11.3 points. The average number of plays that they ran in those games were 63.7 and the number they defended was 74.3 for a difference of 10.7 plays.

The last 7 games (including a bowl game against USF) they were 4-0 at Home against Massachusetts, Tenn, Missouri and W. Carolina and 0-3 Away against Florida, Clemson and USF. Their average margin of victory in those 4 Home games was 8 points. The average margin of loss in their 3 Away games was 23 points. The average number of plays that they ran in those 7 games was 70.7 compared to defending 72.4 plays for a difference of 1.7 plays.

Though they kinda got their arses handed to them on the road in the last half of the season, take note of the fact that at home (where they were 5-2) they were a more difficult team to play last year. This is by no means a slam dunk but I like our chances to come out of Columbia with a win. With the game being in the first week of October the humidity will hopefully not be a factor.
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rhames

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #82 on: July 12, 2017, 07:11:48 am »

My question is will Guv be at the South Carolina game?
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GuvHog

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #83 on: July 12, 2017, 09:47:28 am »

My question is will Guv be at the South Carolina game?

No, I'll be watching it on TV.
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Großer Kriegschwein

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #84 on: July 12, 2017, 09:52:33 am »

I'm not looking at TOP but here is what I did notice.

Their first 6 games included 3 at Home against E. Carolina, A&M and Georgia and 3 Away at Vandy, Miss St and Kentucky. They were 1-2 at Home and 1-2 Away in the those first 6 games. Their average margin of victory was by 4 points and their average margin of loss was by 11.3 points. The average number of plays that they ran in those games were 63.7 and the number they defended was 74.3 for a difference of 10.7 plays.

The last 7 games (including a bowl game against USF) they were 4-0 at Home against Massachusetts, Tenn, Missouri and W. Carolina and 0-3 Away against Florida, Clemson and USF. Their average margin of victory in those 4 Home games was 8 points. The average margin of loss in their 3 Away games was 23 points. The average number of plays that they ran in those 7 games was 70.7 compared to defending 72.4 plays for a difference of 1.7 plays.

Though they kinda got their arses handed to them on the road in the last half of the season, take note of the fact that at home (where they were 5-2) they were a more difficult team to play last year. This is by no means a slam dunk but I like our chances to come out of Columbia with a win. With the game being in the first week of October the humidity will hopefully not be a factor.

Well, they are South Carolina and their coach is Will Muschamp.

More than likely, by the time we get to the game, their players will all be suffering from PTSD from fall camp.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #85 on: July 13, 2017, 03:56:29 pm »

Well, they are South Carolina and their coach is Will Muschamp.

More than likely, by the time we get to the game, their players will all be suffering from PTSD from fall camp.

Well he isn't a patient person and he has a pretty aggressive (or explosive) personality. Probably a nice guy over a cup of coffee, but probably not so nice when you are the one that he has lined up in the crosshairs of his scope.
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HF#1

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #86 on: July 13, 2017, 04:23:28 pm »

Picking the Hogs to lose to a team that is in their second year of rebuilding under a new HC isn't being realistic. Sadly, that's what some are doing.

When you look objectively at the team and the schedule, middle of the pack is absolutely realistic.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #87 on: July 13, 2017, 04:34:51 pm »

When you look objectively at the team and the schedule, middle of the pack is absolutely realistic.

S. Carolina will likely be improved and while still trying to find their way last season they did go 5-2 on the season at home. 3 of those wins came against E. Carolina (a decent OOC opponent) and 2 others against (Mass.-not so good) and W. Carolina (another rent a win) but those home wins also included games against Tennessee and Missouri.

Despite the fact that they lost their last three games last season by an average margin of 23 points, I think Muschamp will have them playing better this season. Being in Columbia and Muschamp's second year, they certainly aren't a "gimmee" kind of game.
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rljjr

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #88 on: July 13, 2017, 04:45:33 pm »

Most expect a resurgence in the SEC. Steele certainly does. QB play will be improved across the board. I don't see the deep flaws for LSU and AU. Can you provide some clarity on that? I understand LSU is limited at QB, but I'm not aware of any other deficiencies. They are young, but talented on D and have excellent coordinators. AU returns a lot of guys and potentially significantly upgraded at QB.

I'm glad you say AU "potentially" upgraded at QB. I'm not sold on Stidham. He has inflated statistics from his first 7 games (not starts) in cleanup play against bad teams. He had 3 starts. He beat Kansas State (stats were significantly lower than the mop-up games); He lost to a ranked OU, throwing for 2 TD and 2 INT and just over 50% completion (and he suffered a back injury); and he played a 1 TD pass first half against a ranked Oklahoma State team. When he left that game it was tied 14-14 (Baylor did win by 10 thanks to a great effort by the 3rd string QB). In those 3 games he has 6 TDs to 2 INTs.

Does he have potential? Absolutely. Can he be better in Gus' system? Sure. But he's not a runner, so that aspect of the AU game is taken away (AU's RBs are really good, though). For me it's a wait and see situation.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #89 on: July 13, 2017, 05:12:46 pm »

I'm glad you say AU "potentially" upgraded at QB. I'm not sold on Stidham. He has inflated statistics from his first 7 games (not starts) in cleanup play against bad teams. He had 3 starts. He beat Kansas State (stats were significantly lower than the mop-up games); He lost to a ranked OU, throwing for 2 TD and 2 INT and just over 50% completion (and he suffered a back injury); and he played a 1 TD pass first half against a ranked Oklahoma State team. When he left that game it was tied 14-14 (Baylor did win by 10 thanks to a great effort by the 3rd string QB). In those 3 games he has 6 TDs to 2 INTs.

Does he have potential? Absolutely. Can he be better in Gus' system? Sure. But he's not a runner, so that aspect of the AU game is taken away (AU's RBs are really good, though). For me it's a wait and see situation.

It's not just me. You can look at what the experts say. They all expect him to do well. That's why Auburn is being picked to challenge for the West.

Not only that. Their other QB was very efficient while healthy. Meanwhile, we are switching defenses and that going to take time.

It's a wait and see for every team. However, when you have talent it's a lot easier to overcome challenges than when you recruit in the bottom third of the conference.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #90 on: July 13, 2017, 05:39:03 pm »

It's not just me. You can look at what the experts say. They all expect him to do well. That's why Auburn is being picked to challenge for the West.

Not only that. Their other QB was very efficient while healthy. Meanwhile, we are switching defenses and that going to take time.

It's a wait and see for every team. However, when you have talent it's a lot easier to overcome challenges than when you recruit in the bottom third of the conference.

Well yes, all of the prognosticators are saying how great Stidham is going to be despite not having any past stats to support that nor having taken a single SEC game snap. I guess on the strength of the Auburn spring game? And we all know how indicative spring games turn out to be.

Maybe Stidham will wind up being very good, maybe he will turn out to be average, who knows at this point? No one. The most accurate thing that you said was "potentially" because there isn't any foundation for that at this point aside from opinions, which might not mean squat once the season starts. We will see, just like we will see about our new 3-4.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #91 on: July 13, 2017, 05:45:14 pm »

Well yes, all of the prognosticators are saying how great Stidham is going to be despite not having any past stats to support that nor having taken a single SEC game snap. I guess on the strength of the Auburn spring game? And we all know how indicative spring games turn out to be.

Maybe Stidham will wind up being very good, maybe he will turn out to be average, who knows at this point? No one. The most accurate thing that you said was "potentially" because there isn't any foundation for that at this point aside from opinions, which might not mean squat once the season starts. We will see, just like we will see about our new 3-4.
Well, there are opinions shared on this board every day where there is no foundation.  So, right now it's talking season.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #92 on: July 13, 2017, 05:50:21 pm »

Well, there are opinions shared on this board every day where there is no foundation.  So, right now it's talking season.

I wasn't referring to YOUR opinion, but the opinions of "the experts". They don't know at this point either.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #93 on: July 13, 2017, 06:01:45 pm »

I wasn't referring to YOUR opinion, but the opinions of "the experts". They don't know at this point either.

I'm just going to assume 9 times out of 10 they are going to have a more informed opinion than your average message board poster that knows just enough about the game to string together a few sentences.  For example, someone like Phil Steele has a history of success and uses real data to come to conclusions.  Or a guy like Cole Cubelic who played the game and actually knows what to look for while watching game film.  It makes sense to listen to their opinions.  Mostly because they can look at things more objectively with data or a trained eye.
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onebadrubi

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #94 on: July 13, 2017, 06:08:32 pm »

Strong words coming from him. It would be just like us to come out and win a bunch this year.


I don't have high expectations this year. Next year will be the best team bret has had, but will have a New qb.

Why is next year any projection in your mind to be better? 
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #95 on: July 13, 2017, 06:26:22 pm »

I'm just going to assume 9 times out of 10 they are going to have a more informed opinion than your average message board poster that knows just enough about the game to string together a few sentences.  For example, someone like Phil Steele has a history of success and uses real data to come to conclusions.  Or a guy like Cole Cubelic who played the game and actually knows what to look for while watching game film.  It makes sense to listen to their opinions.  Mostly because they can look at things more objectively with data or a trained eye.

Phil Steele has been wrong several times but people yearn for information so on the basis of a very detailed collection of information, people think that he is right most of the time. Great magazine with a great collection of data, I always buy it. But that doesn't make him right about his projections all of the time.

Cole Cubelic? A former Auburn Tiger? I can see why you like him since you are a closet Gus Hugger and therefore, an Auburn fan. There are lots of guys who played the game at the college level that have a better grasp of the game than he does, but perhaps don't possess the personality to be a media figure. But they can tell you whether what some media guys say is simply for the benefit of the promotion of a projected high profile player or if it is pure b.s., and no one really knows until the season plays out. And of course you would believe what Cubelic says about an Auburn QB because again, Cubelic played at Auburn and you are a Gus/Auburn fan.
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Al Boarland

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #96 on: July 13, 2017, 07:00:01 pm »

Phil Steele has been wrong several times but people yearn for information so on the basis of a very detailed collection of information, people think that he is right most of the time. Great magazine with a great collection of data, I always buy it. But that doesn't make him right about his projections all of the time.

Cole Cubelic? A former Auburn Tiger? I can see why you like him since you are a closet Gus Hugger and therefore, an Auburn fan. There are lots of guys who played the game at the college level that have a better grasp of the game than he does, but perhaps don't possess the personality to be a media figure. But they can tell you whether what some media guys say is simply for the benefit of the promotion of a projected high profile player or if it is pure b.s., and no one really knows until the season plays out. And of course you would believe what Cubelic says about an Auburn QB because again, Cubelic played at Auburn and you are a Gus/Auburn fan.

I'll tell you what. You provide me a link to someone who you think knows what they are talking about for anything related the topics we discuss and I'll be glad to look it over. That's much better than you attempting to discredit everything I put on the board.

I know you think everything will be fine and dandy this season. Of course, that's your opinion. You probably think more highly of it than Steele or Cubelic. Not sure if that is a solid line of thinking, but that's just my opinion.
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GuvHog

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #97 on: July 13, 2017, 07:06:27 pm »

I'll tell you what. You provide me a link to someone who you think knows what they are talking about for anything related the topics we discuss and I'll be glad to look it over. That's much better than you attempting to discredit everything I put on the board.

I know you think everything will be fine and dandy this season. Of course, that's your opinion. You probably think more highly of it than Steele or Cubelic. Not sure if that is a solid line of thinking, but that's just my opinion.

I can't give you a link but I'll give you a name. If you want to know about Razorback Football, the man to listen to is Clint Stoerner.
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rhames

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #98 on: July 13, 2017, 07:11:55 pm »

I can't give you a link but I'll give you a name. If you want to know about Razorback Football, the man to listen to is Clint Stoerner.


While I appreciate his time here he is no where near as knowledgeable as your razorback ears want him to be. He pretty much bashed Brandon Allen until Brandon Allen turned it around and then claimed he predicted the whole thing.


There have been other thing he has done while calling games that made me scratch my head.

The fact is, most fans of any team, love the guy who predicts a good season for their team and discredit the guy who doesn't.

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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: Phil Steele's Podcast on the SEC West
« Reply #99 on: July 13, 2017, 07:24:22 pm »

I'll tell you what. You provide me a link to someone who you think knows what they are talking about for anything related the topics we discuss and I'll be glad to look it over. That's much better than you attempting to discredit everything I put on the board.

I know you think everything will be fine and dandy this season. Of course, that's your opinion. You probably think more highly of it than Steele or Cubelic. Not sure if that is a solid line of thinking, but that's just my opinion.

Here's what I know. I know that I can say that we are going to wind up being anywhere between 5-7 and 8-4 in regular season play and be as good as Steele when it comes to that particular projection. In fact, I think I will project that...we will end up between 5-7 and 8-4 for 2017. Genius! I'm kidding, but that was what Steele said in his magazine. I mean, really? Come on, man. Getting paid for this?

Here is what else that I know. As disappointed as all of us have been the last 3 seasons, we could just as easily have won as many as 9, 10 and 10 games. We didn't, we blew it, but the opportunity and the talent was there to get it done.

If the 3-4 comes together better than many of the "experts" project and we can just limit opponents to or below 370 Yards/Gm on average and the offense produces at the rate we did last year with improved RZ scoring, we may win at least 9 this year. But I'm not an "expert" so I won't project that. I'll just say that the opportunity is laying there in front of us and it is up to the team to get it done.
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