What Will It Take To Beat Miss State In Their House?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Petrino's presser today he announced that the QB position is open pending who practices the best this week...My gut feeling is he is going to start Nathan...Let's hope he steps up

The fact that CD didn't get a "vote of confidence" by BP speaks volumes to me. I suspect we may see a new starter Saturday and if not a new starter, a new face(Like ND) in around the second or third series. But heck, if we are going to do that, might as well start him from the very beginning. But then, you never know, this may be a motivational ploy for CD to get with the game. We'll see Saturday, or maybe Friday?

[elksnort]

If we can not turn the ball over at key times, play OUR game, rush for over 100 yards and pass for our average, we'll win in Starksville. If we shoot ourselves in the foot as we have before, all bets are off.
-MuskogeeHogFan

What you are saying above is the basically what I think. No KO returns for TDs, no pic 6, no gimmies for Mississippi State and we should win.

[want2be]

Ms State has played us close in the past because we had NO effective passing game. Normally we might want to run to set up the pass, but in this game it could  be opposite.

Ms State is not all that good on the pass rush, and this should benefit Casey or Nathan's confidence. I think we will come out with alot of short routes and make their linebackers loosen up so that we can establish the run.

If Petrino can continue creative red zone play calling, I think we can get 21 points.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Ms State has played us close in the past because we had NO effective passing game. Normally we might want to run to set up the pass, but in this game it could  be opposite.

Ms State is not all that good on the pass rush, and this should benefit Casey or Nathan's confidence. I think we will come out with alot of short routes and make their linebackers loosen up so that we can establish the run.

If Petrino can continue creative red zone play calling, I think we can get 21 points.

I agree but in reverse. I think we have to establish the run game first. We are the best passing team they have faced this year so they are going to game plan to take away our quick routes and throws inside to DJ...they will be on him like white on rice. Got to be able to run the ball effectively and draw those LB's and CB's back up to the LOS and then when we do, run the play action and start hitting the short routes underneath for 10-15 yards a catch. We have to be efficient and keep them off balance and as you alluded to earlier, the O-Line HAS to show up this week.

[want2be]

I agree but in reverse. I think we have to establish the run game first. We are the best passing team they have faced this year so they are going to game plan to take away our quick routes and throws inside to DJ...they will be on him like white on rice. Got to be able to run the ball effectively and draw those LB's and CB's back up to the LOS and then when we do, run the play action and start hitting the short routes underneath for 10-15 yards a catch. We have to be efficient and keep them off balance and as you alluded to earlier, the O-Line HAS to show up this week.

I would normally agree, but after Ms State scouts our offense they are surely going to key on Michael Smith...Kentucky tried to, Tulsa did, S.Carolina did.........He was the biggest weapon we had and the leading all purpose back in the SEC until teams focused on him.

Petrino is old school and he would like to use the run to set up the pass, but he has seen the trends that defenses are using to limit Smith. Petrino is going to have to call one of his better games to keep State on their heels. When it comes to this team, one thing I have faith in is that he will have the right offensive plan to give us the shot at a win.

[Dances With Hogs]

I say start Dick.

Hopefully, MSU receivers will drop as many passes as they did against Bama.

Let Nathan Dick start. We need a QB with better decision making ability.

I think we actually have enough players to win this game but they will have to be used and then they will have to perform at their best.  Casey isn't good enough to lead us to victory here but I think Nathan might be.  There will be 10 plays in this game where if the QB does everything right, we have success and that will rub off  on the entire team.  Casey usually fails on 8 of the 10 every game.  If our offense is clicking, the defense will stand up and play enough to keep MSU from scoring enough to beat us.  Those 10 near perfect plays should net us 24 to 28 points and I doubt MSU could score that many against air.  All that said, we are very likely to lose because Casey is the likely QB and asking our team for 10 near perfect offensive plays in one game is near impossible.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I say start Dick.

I'd say it is a safe assumption that a "Dick" will start.

[want2be]

I say start Dick.

Coming from a female fan, I am not sure how to respond....But I am sure Dick wants to start

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Enough talk about Dicks, all we have to do as a team is find a set of balls.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

No Turnovers and MS goes for 250 and 2TD's & Nathan passes for 175 and 2 TD's

I'm not sure we will need 250 from Smith, though that would be sweet. If we just rush for more than a hundred yards and throw for 250 or more, we'll win no matter what else happens because MSU's offense is AWOL.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

It will take 3 points to beat them.  Auburn proved that.  If we lose it could well be because their Defense scored more points than us or their offense.  They put up a decent effort for about a half against Bama but Bama is their #2 rival with Ttown being only 80 or so miles from Starkville. 

One reason that we have done so well against MSU in the past is that we have the luxury of being sandwiched in between their two top rivals.  They are usually drained if not beaten up after Bama and can't help but look ahead to Ole Miss.

Bottom line is if State's offense beats us then Willy Robinson should be fired.  I don't care who you are in the SEC if you get beaten by the two headed monster known as Tyson Lee and Wes Carroll then you suck period.

Now if we beat ourselves with bad special teams play and some pick six's then that's not the defenses fault.   I think this is the most likely scenario for us losing since the defense overall has looked better each week.

We need to get up early like we did against KY.  State doesn't have what it takes to mount any sort of comeback.

This is the most important game of the year for me.  My wife went to State and I lived in Starkville for 10 years.

MSU's offense isn't going to beat our defense, you can mark that down. This year we are sandwiched between(can't believe you brought that up, certain posters on here think that is illegitimate b.s.) Alabama and Ole Miss and I like it that way. I know with only three wins, their season would almost be made if they beat Ole Miss in Oxford. Might be a slight advantage for us. We'll get over 100 rushing and pass for our average 250+, have maybe one INT and we'll win this game. I'd love to see another return for a TD as well. We'll win this weekend unless we just shoot ourselves in the foot again.

[wendellgee]

I'll go with the 98 roster with Petrino on the sideline.

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

I'll go with the 98 roster with Petrino on the sideline.

That would = NC

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I'll go with the 98 roster with Petrino on the sideline.

If only that were possible, but just for S&G's, let's talk about what we have on the team today and what it will take to win at MSU.

[jmingram911]

Excellent QB play among other things.

Opine, I want to smoke whatever you are smoking.  That is not likely to happen until next year, is it?

[msudawgs64]

just so you know Muskogee, our offense is pretty much the same one that played last year against Arkansas.  Same RB's, pretty much the same receivers, same OL, but I think a better QB in Tyson Lee than Carroll who threw for 400 plus against the Hogs last year, he won't have a 400 yard game on Saturday, but I did not think Wesley Carroll would have last year.  Yes that same offense that was ranked something like 110th in the country last year going into our game.

What does this mean?  Not a lot really other than throw your stats away for this game, they mean nothing and for the most part, never have in this series.   

[bolo]

go dick

[bolo]

i'm a bench warmer

[MuskogeeHogFan]

just so you know Muskogee, our offense is pretty much the same one that played last year against Arkansas.  Same RB's, pretty much the same receivers, same OL, but I think a better QB in Tyson Lee than Carroll who threw for 400 plus against the Hogs last year, he won't have a 400 yard game on Saturday, but I did not think Wesley Carroll would have last year.  Yes that same offense that was ranked something like 110th in the country last year going into our game.

What does this mean?  Not a lot really other than throw your stats away for this game, they mean nothing and for the most part, never have in this series.   

If this were LSU I might agree about the stats, but it isn't. This isn't like some big rivalry game with Ole Miss where you can throw the stats out. Not that we don't want to beat you guys, of course we do. But it just doesn't carry the same "throw the stats out" impact that a rivalry game does. And yeah, I know Tyson Lee is a good QB and will get better. Right now he avgs 59% compl avg and 139 yds per game having thrown for 4 INT's and 5 TD's in 9 games. I expect he'll get 150 passing and probably rush for another 35 or so on Saturday but he also loses about 17 yards in game in sacks or tackles for loss. It will be an interesting game but I wouldn't be looking for a 400 yard passing day again if I were you. These aren't Hooties Hogs.

[msudawgs64]

but you can throw the stats out regardless of if it is a rivalry game or not really based on the games played in Starkville, that was my point and the context I was referring to, make sense?  Look at the past history of this series of the games played there and some damn fine Hog teams got out of there with a close win, Hootie or not, and probably below a lot of their season averages in stats categories that they were far better than us in. 

Agreed about Lee and rest assured, I ain't looking for a 400 yard game from him, hell 400 yards last year was an anomoly, we have never been a passing team, which is part of the problem we now have. Last I checked a West Coast offense or any variation of it, requires that you pass the ball, though I could be wrong here.  Bascially Croom is stuck between what we have always had, power running, and trying to run a WCO but really has not recruited a QB who can run it, or McCorvey's game plan sucks..I will take a combination of the two.

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

but you can throw the stats out regardless of if it is a rivalry game or not really based on the games played in Starkville, that was my point and the context I was referring to, make sense?  Look at the past history of this series of the games played there and some damn fine Hog teams got out of there with a close win, Hootie or not, and probably below a lot of their season averages in stats categories that they were far better than us in. 

Agreed about Lee and rest assured, I ain't looking for a 400 yard game from him, hell 400 yards last year was an anomoly, we have never been a passing team, which is part of the problem we now have. Last I checked a West Coast offense or any variation of it, requires that you pass the ball, though I could be wrong here.  Bascially Croom is stuck between what we have always had, power running, and trying to run a WCO but really has not recruited a QB who can run it, or McCorvey's game plan sucks..I will take a combination of the two.

Close or not here's what I look at the past 13 years 12-1.  AR teams had losing record going into this game in 5 of those years (1996, 1997, 2000, 2004, 2005).  The 1997-2000 Bulldogs went 33-15 but still couldn't beat Arkansas in any of those 4 years.  It's odd that in 1998 MSU beat us in a close game and then decided it was such a monumental win that they tore down the goal post.  They were 7-4 the year before, we were 4-7.  Yes we were having a good year, but TN had already taken us from the ranks of the unbeaten so it's wasn't  even a big upset.  Well since MSU had that program defining win they have gone 0-9 against us.

1995@AR   W
1996@MSU W
1997@AR   W
1998@MSU L (Thanks Todd Latourette)
1999@AR   W
2000@MSU W
2001@AR   W
2002@MSU W
2003@AR   W
2004@MSU W
2005@AR   W
2006@MSU W
2007@AR   W

[scarolinahog]

We come into this game facing a down, but not out, Miss State team that might be a lot like a wounded animal, and while they may seem somewhat less strong, they are nonetheless, still dangerous.

Looking at who Miss State has played and how they have performed it seems to me that defensively we are most similar to Middle Tennessee in terms of average defense. Miss State generated 366 yards of total offense vs. Mid Tenn.(197 yards in the air, 169 rushing). They committed no fumbles or INT's. By the same token, Middle Tenn is the best passing team that Miss State has faced all season and they got burned for 268 yards passing in that game and forced no turnovers. Miss State managed to beat Mid Tenn 31-22.

Offensively, it seems we most compare to LSU who, while throwing one INT, passed for 261 yards vs. MSU. Total offense wise, this is who we are most similar to. But you gotta keep in mind that they also rushed 37 times for 166 yards as well.

While we may be the best passing offense that Miss State has faced all season, the key, at least to me, is insuring that we not only reach our average numbers passing, but that we also rush for more than 100 yards. In the three games that MSU has won, they have limited teams to less than 100 yards of team rushing. Yes, turnovers are always a factor in any game, but in 2 of the ones they won, Vandy turned it over 2 times and SE La 1 time, Mid Tenn had zero turnovers. They had close one point losses to Auburn and Kentucky where Auburn turned it over three times and Kentucky twice and they still won.

Key Factor
MSU has the #2 pass defense in the country. But if you look at the SEC level teams that they have faced, only one is ranked higher than #60(LSU at #59) and the rest are all over the #90 ranking and three of those at #100 or lower. We are at #25. I would suggest that while they may good, their stats have been built on facing teams whose strength wasn't passing.

What I hope is that MSU puts so much emphasis on stopping the pass that it will open up our run game more(their rush defense is ranked #72 allowing 148 yards per game). Open up the run game, hurt them with that, get the LB's and CB's crowding the line and then go back to the pass.

They are ranked 80th in sacks and 87th in tackles for loss(both below our ranking). They are ranked below us in punt returns and kick off returns. Their offense is ranked #111 with 283 yards per game.

If we can not turn the ball over at key times, play OUR game, rush for over 100 yards and pass for our average, we'll win in Starksville. If we shoot ourselves in the foot as we have before, all bets are off.

What do all of you think about our chances in this game?

We need Mallett under center to win this one.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

We need Mallett under center to win this one.

It would be nice to have him but we can win with who we have on the team right now provided we play a good game and commit few mistakes.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

but you can throw the stats out regardless of if it is a rivalry game or not really based on the games played in Starkville, that was my point and the context I was referring to, make sense?  Look at the past history of this series of the games played there and some damn fine Hog teams got out of there with a close win, Hootie or not, and probably below a lot of their season averages in stats categories that they were far better than us in. 

Agreed about Lee and rest assured, I ain't looking for a 400 yard game from him, hell 400 yards last year was an anomoly, we have never been a passing team, which is part of the problem we now have. Last I checked a West Coast offense or any variation of it, requires that you pass the ball, though I could be wrong here.  Bascially Croom is stuck between what we have always had, power running, and trying to run a WCO but really has not recruited a QB who can run it, or McCorvey's game plan sucks..I will take a combination of the two.

I know how you guys like stats(well, some of you), but here is what it has taken for MSU and Arkansas, offensively/defensively when they have won and more than likely, what they each have to do to win this weekend.

Arkansas Defense Vs. MSU Offense:
                                           Pass    Yds               Rush     Yds
                Att  Cmpl   Comp%  Yds   P/Compl  INT's   Yds    P/Rush
Arkansas    29     15     53.5     209      14         1      166      4.4
Miss State  25     16      63      154      9.6        0      184      4.1

Arkansas Offense Vs. MSU Defense:
                                           Pass     Yds               Rush     Yds
                Att   Cmpl   Comp% Yds   P/Comp   INT's    Yds    P/Rush
Arkansas    36     22       61      313      14        1       124      3.6
Miss State  28     13       48      148      11        1        53      1.9

I'm not sure that we will see 300+ yards passing by the Hogs, but 124 yards rushing is very possible. We cannot let them hold us under 100 yards rushing or this game will be in doubt. On the other hand, we cannot let them rush for 184 yards and this has been our achilles heel all season as 6 of the 10 teams we have played have rushed for 150 yards or more per game.

We have to shut down their run game and force them to throw and they will attempt to do the same to us. If we can get 70 offensive plays into this ball game, I believe we will win.

[msudawgs64]

It's odd that in 1998 MSU beat us in a close game and then decided it was such a monumental win that they tore down the goal post. 

Not sure why you would think it is odd, it was the win that got us to Atlanta, if it would have been against anyone else, I want to think they would have come down against that team.  It was not the win over Arkansas that we were celebrating, it was the fact we won the West.  You guys just happened to be the opponent on the field that day.  There is the old axiom, act like you have been there, just so happens, we had not been there and last, and only, SEC championship was the same year WWII started, so forgive us if we were a bit overjoyed by the prospect of actually playing for another championship, they come oh so rarely.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Close or not here's what I look at the past 13 years 12-1.  AR teams had losing record going into this game in 5 of those years (1996, 1997, 2000, 2004, 2005).  The 1997-2000 Bulldogs went 33-15 but still couldn't beat Arkansas in any of those 4 years.  It's odd that in 1998 MSU beat us in a close game and then decided it was such a monumental win that they tore down the goal post.  They were 7-4 the year before, we were 4-7.  Yes we were having a good year, but TN had already taken us from the ranks of the unbeaten so it's wasn't  even a big upset.  Well since MSU had that program defining win they have gone 0-9 against us.

1995@AR   W
1996@MSU W
1997@AR   W
1998@MSU L (Thanks Todd Latourette)
1999@AR   W
2000@MSU W
2001@AR   W
2002@MSU W
2003@AR   W
2004@MSU W
2005@AR   W
2006@MSU W
2007@AR   W

That's all true, but if we don't care of business in terms of numbers as I illustrated above, this could just mean that they are "due" for another win and where we are this point of the season, I'd really hate that.

[Kenny Dowell Loggains]

Q: What will it take to beat Miss State In Their House?

A: Stop Sucking

for real though: A. Us to realize we are Arkansas and they are Mississippi State.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Less cowbell.

OK, that's doubtful.....it's all they've got. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Q: What will it take to beat Miss State In Their House?

A: Stop Sucking

for real though: A. Us to realize we are Arkansas and they are Mississippi State.

Ohhhhhhh, that's all? Huh, ok.

[Pork Authority]

Lots of Johnny Walker and earplugs to ignore the cowbells

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

Not sure why you would think it is odd, it was the win that got us to Atlanta, if it would have been against anyone else, I want to think they would have come down against that team.  It was not the win over Arkansas that we were celebrating, it was the fact we won the West.  You guys just happened to be the opponent on the field that day.  There is the old axiom, act like you have been there, just so happens, we had not been there and last, and only, SEC championship was the same year WWII started, so forgive us if we were a bit overjoyed by the prospect of actually playing for another championship, they come oh so rarely.

It's just odd that anyone would tear down goal posts after beating an HDN coached team.  Also fun since MSU hasn't won since.  I was there in person I could see the pain in poor Houston's face that day.  He swore to his boys that day that he would never lose to Mississippis State again.

[Steef]

To answer the original question...

A quarterback.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

To answer the original question...

A quarterback.

We have at least two.

[Steef]

We have at least two.

MHF,

No disrespect, bud.

But...not really.

[msudawgs64]

It's just odd that anyone would tear down goal posts after beating an HDN coached team.  Also fun since MSU hasn't won since.  I was there in person I could see the pain in poor Houston's face that day.  He swore to his boys that day that he would never lose to Mississippis State again.

well sure if you look at it that way but I don't think we were actually looking at it that way, hell if beating an Ed O Ole Miss team would have been the game, we would have done the same.   I will say this though, Nutt will lose to State again, may not be this year, but it won't be long coming.

[msudawgs64]

Q: What will it take to beat Miss State In Their House?

A: Stop Sucking

for real though: A. Us to realize we are Arkansas and they are Mississippi State.

yeah, I am sure that will work.  <sarcasm>

[fantom]

smith + 150 yards and 3 td's

[MuskogeeHogFan]

MHF,

No disrespect, bud.

But...not really.

Well Steef, no disrespect to you, but you didn't say they had to be All SEC.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

smith + 150 yards and 3 td's

Michael Smith gaining 150 yds and scoring three TD's would be a great start, but what about passing? What do we need to do there? What about on defense? Specifically, what do you see that we need to do overall to win this game? Benchmarks?

[TheRazorbackGuy]

I think Arkansas wins 31 to 14

[Steef]

Well Steef, no disrespect to you, but you didn't say they had to be All SEC.

True. But you asked what it would take to beat an SEC team.

And to go any further, I'd have to say things about some of our players, that I really don't want to say.

How's this?.....I hope we win! WPS!!

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

well sure if you look at it that way but I don't think we were actually looking at it that way, hell if beating an Ed O Ole Miss team would have been the game, we would have done the same.   I will say this though, Nutt will lose to State again, may not be this year, but it won't be long coming.

And on that day I will be a State Fan.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

We all know how BP loves to go for it on fourth down.......guess who is last in the SEC at defending 4th down conversions? That's right, Miss State. They haven't successfully defended one all year, not one, single time. Wanna bet that if we are faced with a fourth and short that BP doesn't go for it? This could be a more entertaining ballgame than we think.

[want2be]

We all know how BP loves to go for it on fourth down.......guess who is last in the SEC at defending 4th down conversions? That's right, Miss State. They haven't successfully defended one all year, not one, single time. Wanna bet that if we are faced with a fourth and short that BP doesn't go for it? This could be a more entertaining ballgame than we think.

I hope Tejada does not have a meltdown, because I think we will try for a field goal on fourth down (unless we are behind by more than a field goal late in the game)

Another thing, look for Barneet to get alot more carries tomorrow....If it does come to a 4th down short yardage play he may get the nod.

I do hope Petrino has designed more plays to make us effective in the red zone situation.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I hope Tejada does not have a meltdown, because I think we will try for a field goal on fourth down (unless we are behind by more than a field goal late in the game)

Another thing, look for Barneet to get alot more carries tomorrow....If it does come to a 4th down short yardage play he may get the nod.

I do hope Petrino has designed more plays to make us effective in the red zone situation.

I think BP goes for it more often than not in 4th down situations this week. With MSU being last and never having successfully defended a 4th down attempt this year, I look for him to try to capitalize on this.

[want2be]

In Petrino's presser yesterday (no link).......he stated that he might play both Casey and Nathan....He stated at Louisville he would alternate a quarterback in the second quarter. Sounds like he likes to give that starter a full first quarter rather than knee jerking or continuous swaps like Spurrier.

Either way, he will want to see his offensive plan implemented and I think Petrino is tired of low scoring outcomes and wants to proof that he can put up alot of points.

I know we have not done it all year, but if our passing game is clicking, the run game is effective, and if our red zone offense can get TD's we may put up 30-40 points. I know that sounds crazy, but I just think Petrino has something to proof and he has the offense primed and ready.

Ms State can say they are up for the game, but they have to be down after Bama and they sure want a Ol Miss win more than anything.

I have predicted we would score 24, but I would not be surprised if we lay 40 on them.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

In Petrino's presser yesterday (no link).......he stated that he might play both Casey and Nathan....He stated at Louisville he would alternate a quarterback in the second quarter. Sounds like he likes to give that starter a full first quarter rather than knee jerking or continuous swaps like Spurrier.

Either way, he will want to see his offensive plan implemented and I think Petrino is tired of low scoring outcomes and wants to proof that he can put up alot of points.

I know we have not done it all year, but if our passing game is clicking, the run game is effective, and if our red zone offense can get TD's we may put up 30-40 points. I know that sounds crazy, but I just think Petrino has something to proof and he has the offense primed and ready.

Ms State can say they are up for the game, but they have to be down after Bama and they sure want a Ol Miss win more than anything.

I have predicted we would score 24, but I would not be surprised if we lay 40 on them.

I think we will see Casey start with Nathan staying warm on the sideline. First sign of trouble, not operating the offense well or freezing in the face of a rush, and I bet we see Nathan. No more screwing around, no more giving of the benefit of the doubt. BP wants to win these last two games and he will pull out all the stops to get that done.

MSU is going to commit to stopping our running game....they don't want to allow our RB's to get creases and break off big runs because they can't defend the run and the pass. They will want to make us as one dimensional and predictable as possible. Exactly why we absolutely HAVE TO establish the run today. If we don't, their defense may spend more time in our backfield than our QB's and RB's.

Their pass defense is over-rated and their reputation has been built on playing against predominantly run oriented teams. Don't believe it? Go to NCAA.org and check it out game by game. If we can successfully establish the run this will keep their stunts and blitzes in check, and then we won't have a problem passing the ball.

MSU is down, seemingly in disarray and we need a BIG day against them to build momentum towards LSU next week.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

And just FYI, in regard to their pass defense(I posted this in the original thread),
"Key Factor
MSU has the #2 pass defense in the country. But if you look at the SEC level teams that they have faced, only one is ranked higher than #60(LSU at #59) and the rest are all over the #90 ranking and three of those at #100 or lower. We are at #25. I would suggest that while they may good, their stats have been built on facing teams whose strength wasn't passing."

I think we have a big day through the air today.

[want2be]

Two players who have not played much this year could be difference makers in this ballgame.....Nathan could show us all that he really is the best available QB and Barnnett could show us that he has the talent to alternate with Smith to give defenses another look to keep them off balance.

Also DJ will have another BIG game...He and Lucas Miller will give State fits across the middle today. Both these guys are fearless...Look for some long attempts to Wright or Adams

[nuttfreein2008]

Mallet starting.