What Will It Take To Beat Miss State In Their House?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

We come into this game facing a down, but not out, Miss State team that might be a lot like a wounded animal, and while they may seem somewhat less strong, they are nonetheless, still dangerous.

Looking at who Miss State has played and how they have performed it seems to me that defensively we are most similar to Middle Tennessee in terms of average defense. Miss State generated 366 yards of total offense vs. Mid Tenn.(197 yards in the air, 169 rushing). They committed no fumbles or INT's. By the same token, Middle Tenn is the best passing team that Miss State has faced all season and they got burned for 268 yards passing in that game and forced no turnovers. Miss State managed to beat Mid Tenn 31-22.

Offensively, it seems we most compare to LSU who, while throwing one INT, passed for 261 yards vs. MSU. Total offense wise, this is who we are most similar to. But you gotta keep in mind that they also rushed 37 times for 166 yards as well.

While we may be the best passing offense that Miss State has faced all season, the key, at least to me, is insuring that we not only reach our average numbers passing, but that we also rush for more than 100 yards. In the three games that MSU has won, they have limited teams to less than 100 yards of team rushing. Yes, turnovers are always a factor in any game, but in 2 of the ones they won, Vandy turned it over 2 times and SE La 1 time, Mid Tenn had zero turnovers. They had close one point losses to Auburn and Kentucky where Auburn turned it over three times and Kentucky twice and they still won.

Key Factor
MSU has the #2 pass defense in the country. But if you look at the SEC level teams that they have faced, only one is ranked higher than #60(LSU at #59) and the rest are all over the #90 ranking and three of those at #100 or lower. We are at #25. I would suggest that while they may good, their stats have been built on facing teams whose strength wasn't passing.

What I hope is that MSU puts so much emphasis on stopping the pass that it will open up our run game more(their rush defense is ranked #72 allowing 148 yards per game). Open up the run game, hurt them with that, get the LB's and CB's crowding the line and then go back to the pass.

They are ranked 80th in sacks and 87th in tackles for loss(both below our ranking). They are ranked below us in punt returns and kick off returns. Their offense is ranked #111 with 283 yards per game.

If we can not turn the ball over at key times, play OUR game, rush for over 100 yards and pass for our average, we'll win in Starksville. If we shoot ourselves in the foot as we have before, all bets are off.

What do all of you think about our chances in this game?

[Pigdiana Jones]

What do I think it will take?

At least 1 more point at the end of regulation

[Nutts and Bolts]

What do I think it will take?

At least 1 more point at the end of regulation

don't ya love people like this? 

-1

[jpenrod1]

I think 24 points will win this game.

[RunnerHog]

We will have out score them to beat them

[MuskogeeHogFan]

What do I think it will take?

At least 1 more point at the end of regulation

While true, not the in depth opinion I was exactly looking for.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

We will have out score them to beat them

Ahhh, ok, thank you Mr. Obvious.

[jst01]

If we can not turn the ball over at key times, play OUR game, rush for over 100 yards and pass for our average, we'll win in Starksville. If we shoot ourselves in the foot as we have before, all bets are off.

I think you can win about any game if you achieve those goals. 

If we dont hold MSU to under 24 I think we lose.  We have to score at least 75% of the time we enter the redzone. 

[Boardon Hamsay]

After getting wordy on previous breakdowns, I'm going to keep it simple against MSU.

Offense: Avoid turnovers and stupid penalities and execute.
Defense: Wrap up, get pressure on the QB, and don't give up big plays.

[Pigdiana Jones]

don't ya love people like this? 

-1

Wow, someone needs a chill pill.

[Hoggish1]

To me it is simple.  If we can hold onto the ball like we did at KY and regain our rushing ability (where has it gone?), we'll win this game.

2nd:  It goes without saying that if we have a 3-pick game out of Casey, we lose.  Perhaps we will see more use of Nathan and much earlier regardless of whether Casey struggles.

3rd:  If we don't tackle better and take better angles we lose.

4th:  Special teams play improvement is essential.

5th:  We are a more talented team.  We have more playmakers. We have a superior coach and staff.  If we don't turn the ball over, MSU can't stay with us.  With two weeks to get the kinks out and to  game plan, our play calling should keep MSU off balance all game, provided we can blend the pass/run effectively, which is a Petrino hallmark.  THANK GOD FOR the WEEK OFF!

[opineonswine]

Excellent QB play among other things.

[ErieHog]

8 points.

[OnYourToes]

This is a different game then in years past.  We match up pretty well on all aspects of the game.

Our edge is our passing game and the ability to move the football.  Unluckily their strength is their passing defense.

Assuming both of those wash out I have to say 3 areas will be the determining factors.
1) Special teams play
   When we have to punt, pin them deep and flip the field.
   When we return, we need good field position.  Also let's take another to the house!
2) Pressure the QB
   D line need to spend a lot of time in MSU's backfield, disrupting the running and passing game.
3) QB play
    Decisions and reads will be the name of the game for us on offense.  An incomplete pass is better then a sack.  Dumping it to the RB in the flat is better then taking a shot down field on 3rd down.  If our QB holds onto the ball for any length of time, he better be running down field.   

[MuskogeeHogFan]

To me it is simple.  If we can hold onto the ball like we did at KY and regain our rushing ability (where has it gone?), we'll win this game.

2nd:  It goes without saying that if we have a 3-pick game out of Casey, we lose.  Perhaps we will see more use of Nathan and much earlier regardless of whether Casey struggles.

3rd:  If we don't tackle better and take better angles we lose.

4th:  Special teams play improvement is essential.

5th:  We are a more talented team.  We have more playmakers. We have a superior coach and staff.  If we don't turn the ball over, MSU can't stay with us.  With two weeks to get the kinks out and to  game plan, our play calling should keep MSU off balance all game, provided we can blend the pass/run effectively, which is a Petrino hallmark.  THANK GOD FOR the WEEK OFF!

MSU has picked 2-INT's in only two games this year, Vandy, the 114th ranked passing offense and La-Tech the 105th ranked passing offense. I just don't see that happening to us.

Auburn rushed for more than their rushing average against Miss State and I expect us to do the same.

Defensively I think we will shine this week. Miss State hasn't exceeded 400 yards of total offense in any game this year and gained their most yards vs. Mid Tenn and SE-La.

Hopefully we have cured some ills with an open week to prepare.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

This is a different game then in years past.  We match up pretty well on all aspects of the game.

Our edge is our passing game and the ability to move the football.  Unluckily their strength is their passing defense.

Assuming both of those wash out I have to say 3 areas will be the determining factors.
1) Special teams play
   When we have to punt, pin them deep and flip the field.
   When we return, we need good field position.  Also let's take another to the house!
2) Pressure the QB
   D line need to spend a lot of time in MSU's backfield, disrupting the running and passing game.
3) QB play
    Decisions and reads will be the name of the game for us on offense.  An incomplete pass is better then a sack.  Dumping it to the RB in the flat is better then taking a shot down field on 3rd down.  If our QB holds onto the ball for any length of time, he better be running down field.  

But their high ranking that we feel is their strength in pass defense has been built against non-passing teams, so I am not so sure that they are as good as advertised in this area.

[want2be]

Miss State is below average on offense but we sometimes have a way of making these type team look better than they are. Teams that run straight at us tend to do ok, and they have a huge back in Dixon....Our linebackers will be tested. They scored 24 against LSU, but I would need to look at the details of that game to see how they got their points. Goods news is we should have some of our wounded back including our best Dend, Davis who needs to put pressure on their QB.Hopefully Neslon will be full speed also.

On offense, our Oline is the key....They were disappointing against SC and they need to come to play. If Casey or Nathan has time and they get rid of the ball in a timely fashion, I think we will get 250 in passing.....And if Smith is healthy and gets some help from Barnett we will get over 100 yards in rushing......Again the Oline is the key. Miss St is ranked 80 in sacks....so we should have more time to pass.

On special teams I don' think any team has a significant advantage. Especially not like Bama had against them.

I don't think either team will be looking past this one and I would expect a hard hitting tuff match.

I'm thinking somewhere in the range of 21-17, Hogs take it.

[longtimeHogfan]

  I'm concerned about their big back.  I would not be surprised to see an all-out attempt to stop the run and make them beat us with the pass.  I don't think they have the passing game to do that.  If we can curtail their running game, apply some pass rush, play an error free game ourselves, we can win this game.  We can't turn the ball over and come away with a 'W'. 

[want2be]

By the way the only odds I have seen for far is Ms State -1

[kcabrozaR]

Just in SEC competition this year MSU averages 11 points per game, the Hogs average 18.

WE WIN

[PORKINATOR]

As it has been all year, it will come down to our QB playing error free, good special teams performance, and a solid Run game both sides of the line of scrimmage. Couple lucky calls or breaks wouldn't hurt either. 14-10 Hogs

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Miss State is below average on offense but we sometimes have a way of making these type team look better than they are. Teams that run straight at us tend to do ok, and they have a huge back in Dixon....Our linebackers will be tested. They scored 24 against LSU, but I would need to look at the details of that game to see how they got their points. Goods news is we should have some of our wounded back including our best Dend, Davis who needs to put pressure on their QB.Hopefully Neslon will be full speed also.

On offense, our Oline is the key....They were disappointing against SC and they need to come to play. If Casey or Nathan has time and they get rid of the ball in a timely fashion, I think we will get 250 in passing.....And if Smith is healthy and gets some help from Barnett we will get over 100 yards in rushing......Again the Oline is the key. Miss St is ranked 80 in sacks....so we should have more time to pass.

On special teams I don' think any team has a significant advantage. Especially not like Bama had against them.

I don't think either team will be looking past this one and I would expect a hard hitting tuff match.

I'm thinking somewhere in the range of 21-17, Hogs take it.

Vs. LSU, Miss State's first two scoring drives were as a result of the initial KO return going back to the LSU 32, where they ran 4 plays, gaining 7 yds and then kicked a FG.

The second was in the 2nd Qtr where MSU got the ball in a short field at the LSU 47, ran the ball 6 times and punched it in the TD.

The other two times in the third and fourth qtrs, they had a legit 18 play-74 yard drive for a TD and then a 5 play-68 yard drive that was helped greatly by a lucky 41 yd pass play that was followed by a 15 yard personal foul by LSU that gave them prime position at the LSU 15, from which they wound up scoring a TD.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Just in SEC competition this year MSU averages 11 points per game, the Hogs average 18.

WE WIN

But at home, they average 19 points to 13 points for visitors, while we average scoring 19 on the road while allowing 32.

[HotlantaHog]

I think turnover margin and special teams wil be key. Even in the games Hogs have won (Auburn), we have had to overcome 20 points or more spotted to the other team via gifts from fumbles, bad interceptions or special teams errors.

Mississippi State has a great defense (No. 2 in passing as noted), so this shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. Arkansas cannot spot the other team huge points in special teams or turnovers and expect to win, especially on the road.

QB play will be key, and you would hope with a week's extra practice, both defense and offense will come out and execute a bit better, even with the youth.

[want2be]

Vs. LSU, Miss State's first two scoring drives were as a result of the initial KO return going back to the LSU 32, where they ran 4 plays, gaining 7 yds and then kicked a FG.

The second was in the 2nd Qtr where MSU got the ball in a short field at the LSU 47, ran the ball 6 times and punched it in the TD.

The other two times in the third and fourth qtrs, they had a legit 18 play-74 yard drive for a TD and then a 5 play-68 yard drive that was helped greatly by a lucky 41 yd pass play that was followed by a 15 yard personal foul by LSU that gave them prime position at the LSU 15, from which they wound up scoring a TD.

Thanks for the LSU rundown....An LSU team who also allowed Auburn 24, Florida 51, S.Car 17, Ga. 52, Bama 27, Troy 31

LSU played a good game against Satan, but other than that their defense does not appear to be better than ours. I think we hold MSU to 17 (if that funny ball bounces right)

[drivetimeporks]

i think the hogs will win mostly b/c we will score at least 17 points, which i think  is plenty  ..Miss St  is good for about 10-14 pts a game

[kcabrozaR]

But at home, they average 19 points to 13 points for visitors, while we average scoring 19 on the road while allowing 32.

Just SEC They score 15.7 at home, We score 22.3 on the road.

WE WIN

[PORKINATOR]

Short fields are our defensive specialty, right? Playing defense within spittin distance of our goal line after a long return of a kick (theirs) or a pass (ours) is standard operating procedure for WILLIE AND THE BOYS. If we stop their run game, I don't think their QB can beat us with his arm, wish I could say the same for ours.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

FYI-In Special Teams:

Punt Returns-
#99 Arkansas  6.23 p/ret
#106 MSU       5.69 p/ret

Punt Return Def-
#33 Arkansas    6.36 p/ret
#102 MSU        12.85 p/ret

KO Returns-
#27 Arkansas     23.25 p/ret
#71 MSU           20.88 p/ret

KO Return Def-
#107 Arkansas    24.46 p/ret
#21 MSU            19.13 p/ret

FG Percentage
NR  Arkansas  8 of 13  .615%
#96  MSU   6 of 11     .545%

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Just SEC They score 15.7 at home, We score 22.3 on the road.

WE WIN

I think you are misquoting here, as well intentioned as it may be.
In SEC Games ONLY:
At home they average 15 and allow 10.
On the road we average scoring 22 but allow 26.

[kcabrozaR]

I think you are misquoting here, as well intentioned as it may be.
In SEC Games ONLY:
At home they average 15 and allow 10.
On the road we average scoring 22 but allow 26.

I did not misquote, I just did not put in the allow part, because I did not like them.

WE WIN

[HogSlop]

I know our D isn't spectacular, but I honestly don't think they have the offense to beat us. If Dick doesn't turn the ball over three times I think we win easily. I've already written this off as a win in my mind, because we CAN'T lose this game.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I did not misquote, I just did not put in the allow part, because I did not like them.

WE WIN

Just trying to be fair and balanced here. Like you, I think we win, but not because of scoring averages. We are the best passing team they have faced all year. If we can get our run game going and just get over 100 yards of run offense and keep them off guard and be unpredictable about what we are going to do(lots of play action by virtue of our success early running the ball), we might beat these guys by three TD's. If we don't establish the run early on, it may be a long day. In special teams we are better than them in every case except KO Return Defense. We'll need to be better in this regard. Play OUR game and dictate the tempo, we'll win. Do it not, a closer than we would like ballgame.

[want2be]

Kentucky may be the best common opponent game to look at which State lost at home 13-14. We got beat against Kentucky at their house 21-20, but we handed them the game late in the 4th quarter with our lack of pass defense.

I don't think their defense is any better than Kentucky's was at the time we played them. Everyone is going to key on Smith and make Casey or Nathan win the game and I think this is what State will do also. With Petrino's play calling I would give the advantage to the Hogs, again IF the Oline comes in with an attitude and IF our QB play is consistent. I have a feeling we will see more of Nathan.

Neither State or the Hogs appear to finish well, and this may be a game where the team that gets out front early should take the advantage.

I guess the battle of the cellar dwellers will be a good one !!

[Tomhog™]

Hopefully, MSU receivers will drop as many passes as they did against Bama.

Let Nathan Dick start. We need a QB with better decision making ability.

[kcabrozaR]

Just trying to be fair and balanced here. Like you, I think we win, but not because of scoring averages. We are the best passing team they have faced all year. If we can get our run game going and just get over 100 yards of run offense and keep them off guard and be unpredictable about what we are going to do(lots of play action by virtue of our success early running the ball), we might beat these guys by three TD's. If we don't establish the run early on, it may be a long day. In special teams we are better than them in every case except KO Return Defense. We'll need to be better in this regard. Play OUR game and dictate the tempo, we'll win. Do it not, a closer than we would like ballgame.

Just having a little fun with stats.
I enjoy your posts, even though I'm not smart enough to understand most of them.

I SURE HOPE WE WIN

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Kentucky may be the best common opponent game to look at which State lost at home 13-14. We got beat against Kentucky at their house 21-20, but we handed them the game late in the 4th quarter with our lack of pass defense.

I don't think their defense is any better than Kentucky's was at the time we played them. Everyone is going to key on Smith and make Casey or Nathan win the game and I think this is what State will do also. With Petrino's play calling I would give the advantage to the Hogs, again IF the Oline comes in with an attitude and IF our QB play is consistent. I have a feeling we will see more of Nathan.

Neither State or the Hogs appear to finish well, and this may be a game where the team that gets out front early should take the advantage.

I guess the battle of the cellar dwellers will be a good one !!

I'd still say that we are most like Mid Tenn in terms of defense and LSU in terms of offense, though they haven't been common opponents for us at least to date. But if you want to look at SOS overall, ours has been .670 to their .577. In just the games that each of us have won, our opponents SOS has been for Arkansas, .524 and for MSU, .484. That's just fodder for conversation and may not mean a thing for this game, but if it reveals anything, our guys have had to compete and grow against a lot more difficult scheduel than they have. Hopefully this will make us a better and mentally tougher team than MSU.

[idochog]

All I know is that it would sure be nice to have a WIN and a CHANCE for a bowl game against LSU.

[pitbull1]

Lets hope for a good game for the Hogs, down in Starkville!!

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Lets hope for a good game for the Hogs, down in Starkville!!

We are due and if you review what I posted above in stats, you too will see this really is a perfect set up for us. We have to take care fo our business, but if we do that, we may win this game going away. It could be a victory with our largest win margin to date. That would give us great confidence heading into the LSU game. This win is very important to us and not just because we are sitting here with 4 wins right now.

[12247]

I think we actually have enough players to win this game but they will have to be used and then they will have to perform at their best.  Casey isn't good enough to lead us to victory here but I think Nathan might be.  There will be 10 plays in this game where if the QB does everything right, we have success and that will rub off  on the entire team.  Casey usually fails on 8 of the 10 every game.  If our offense is clicking, the defense will stand up and play enough to keep MSU from scoring enough to beat us.  Those 10 near perfect plays should net us 24 to 28 points and I doubt MSU could score that many against air.  All that said, we are very likely to lose because Casey is the likely QB and asking our team for 10 near perfect offensive plays in one game is near impossible.

[peakhog]

Our only chance is with a short passing game. Send the wideouts deep and throw to DJ and the RB's. Their LB's will already be in the box and they can't match up with our quickness. Casey holds the ball too long in the pocket for deep throws and he is rarely on the mark. His long completions have been with the assistance of great adjustments by our WR's. DJ should have 8 to 10 catches with Adams & Co. another 10 to 20. Let's keep their D on the field for 8 minute stretches!

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I think we actually have enough players to win this game but they will have to be used and then they will have to perform at their best.  Casey isn't good enough to lead us to victory here but I think Nathan might be.  There will be 10 plays in this game where if the QB does everything right, we have success and that will rub off  on the entire team.  Casey usually fails on 8 of the 10 every game.  If our offense is clicking, the defense will stand up and play enough to keep MSU from scoring enough to beat us.  Those 10 near perfect plays should net us 24 to 28 points and I doubt MSU could score that many against air.  All that said, we are very likely to lose because Casey is the likely QB and asking our team for 10 near perfect offensive plays in one game is near impossible.

You bring up a very good point that is an old football axiom and that is that there are normally 4-5 plays, for each team, in an entire game that cause the game to either be won or lost. This is why it is so deplorable to hear about players taking plays "off". You never know when these plays are coming, or when the defense or the offense just happens to be in the right position with the right combination of things happening to either bust a big play on the offensive side or spoil it on the defensive side. Every team generally has them and that is why both teams have to be prepared, playing smart and playing hard every single play of a game. It is not unlike a chess match. I have no doubt that Miss State won't come into this game playing hard, but I believe we have the base talent and certainly the coaching, to take better advantage of those moments than Miss State does. It is all about being in the right place, at the right time and giving it all you have got every single play. I'd grade us out higher this year than in years past in this regard.

I think we'll bust some big runs and regardless of who the QB is, we'll make some major completions vs. Miss State. Their reputation as the #2 pass defense in the country has been forged by playing teams that are not good passing teams. I think we win by perhaps as much as 2 TD's and if we are really on our game on both sides of the ball, by perhaps three.

[jst01]

I think we win by perhaps as much as 2 TD's and if we are really on our game on both sides of the ball, by perhaps three.

I cant think of anything that has happened this year to make you think that.  We have squeaked by all 4 teams we have beat, and only 1 of those was SEC talent.  Even with Auburn playing horrible at their place, we win by 1 point.   We are still young, still inexperienced and still dont know how to win consistently. If we win by 2 it will be a great win.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I cant think of anything that has happened this year to make you think that.  We have squeaked by all 4 teams we have beat, and only 1 of those was SEC talent.  Even with Auburn playing horrible at their place, we win by 1 point.   We are still young, still inexperienced and still dont know how to win consistently. If we win by 2 it will be a great win.

All of what you say is true, but I just think that we are due and I think the off week helped us a lot. Now maybe I am over optimistic, but with the constant improvement that I have seen and seeing how Miss State sets up as an opponent for us, while it may not be probable, I thnk it is definitely possible and in any case, I believe we win.

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

It will take 3 points to beat them.  Auburn proved that.  If we lose it could well be because their Defense scored more points than us or their offense.  They put up a decent effort for about a half against Bama but Bama is their #2 rival with Ttown being only 80 or so miles from Starkville. 

One reason that we have done so well against MSU in the past is that we have the luxury of being sandwiched in between their two top rivals.  They are usually drained if not beaten up after Bama and can't help but look ahead to Ole Miss.

Bottom line is if State's offense beats us then Willy Robinson should be fired.  I don't care who you are in the SEC if you get beaten by the two headed monster known as Tyson Lee and Wes Carroll then you suck period.

Now if we beat ourselves with bad special teams play and some pick six's then that's not the defenses fault.   I think this is the most likely scenario for us losing since the defense overall has looked better each week.

We need to get up early like we did against KY.  State doesn't have what it takes to mount any sort of comeback.

This is the most important game of the year for me.  My wife went to State and I lived in Starkville for 10 years.

[jst01]

All of what you say is true, but I just think that we are due and I think the off week helped us a lot. Now maybe I am over optimistic, but with the constant improvement that I have seen and seeing how Miss State sets up as an opponent for us, while it may not be probable, I thnk it is definitely possible and in any case, I believe we win.

yeah, not sure a team as young as ours and in the 1st rebuilding year is really ever "due".  It always seems when we are just about to really get going, a penalty or t.o. or mental mistake stops us dead in our tracks. Just more evidence that we are on the brink of playing at that high level, but have some work to do. I already cant wait for next season to get here!

[DeltaBoy]

No Turnovers and MS goes for 250 and 2TD's & Nathan passes for 175 and 2 TD's

[want2be]

Petrino's presser today he announced that the QB position is open pending who practices the best this week...My gut feeling is he is going to start Nathan...Let's hope he steps up

[MuskogeeHogFan]

We are nothing like LSU.  They have a huge, experienced, and dominant offensive line with a solid running game featuring a pretty good sized back and a very inexperienced QB.  LSU doesn't even throw the ball that well.

I quit reading your thread at this point. 

Certainly your perogative to not read, but when you don't, you(or anyone) tend to miss some of the facts. But here is why I said we are "most" like LSU's offense of anyone that MSU has played, at least in terms of total offense. LSU averages 394.2 yards per game. About 181 of that is rushing and 213 of that is passing. Our rush game kinda petered away the last two games against SC and Tulsa, but prior to that we had rushing games of 104 vs Ole Miss, 236 vs Kentucky, 188 vs. Auburn and 141 vs Florida. The potential for a good rushing game is there though I am not sure what has caused its demise the last two games. Still, we are averaging over all games, about 113 per game rushing and 250.2 passing giving us a total offense of about 363 per game or about 31 yards per game behind that of LSU. I'm not meaning to say we are "like" LSU, I am saying we are MOST like them offensively of anyone that MSU has played though they tend to be more balanced overall than we seem to be.

Though they are the #2 ranked pass defense in the country, if you look at who they have played(as I stated above), they have built that ranking against non-passing teams. It's easy to appear to be #2 in pass defense if all you play are predominantly running teams or teams that for the entire season, have not been effective passing the ball.

This may be out best overall match-up of the season that actually swings in our favor. Now if we turn the ball over and generally screw up, as I said orginally, all bets are off. But if we can play a somewhat error free game, even with one INT, we can and I believe we will, win this game.