How Do You Think The BCS Will Shake Out This Year? See Remaining Schedules

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Remaining schedules for the top 10 of the current BCS.

#1 Alabama                     #2 Texas Tech
NR-Miss State-H                 #5-Oklahoma-A
NR-Auburn-H                      NR-Baylor-H

#3 Texas                         #4 Florida
NR-Kansas-A                     #25-S. Carolina-H
NR-Texas A&M-H                NR-Citadel-H
                                      #19-Florida State-A

#5 Oklahoma                    #6 Southern California
#2-Texas Tech-H                NR-Stanford-A
#13-Okla State-A                NR-Notre Dame-H
                                        NR-UCLA-A

#7 Utah                           #8 Penn State
NR-San Diego St.-A             NR-Indiana-H
#17-BYU-H                        #15-Mich State-H

#9 Boise State                   #10 Georgia
NR-Idaho-A                         NR-Auburn-A
NR-Nevada-A                       NR-Georgia Tech-H
NR-Fresno St-H

Oklahoma obviously has the most difficult remaining schedule playing the #2 and #13 teams. Florida probably has the next most difficult remaining with two of their final three games being against the #25 and #19 teams.

Alabama, for all intents and purposes should stroll undefeated into the SECCG. Florida, even with a loss to S. Carolina, will still be in the CG having already beaten the 2nd place team in the East, Georgia.

But BCS wise, there could be a lot of movement in these next three weeks. If OU wins out, they could very well jump Texas in the BCS as the remaining SOS for Texas won't serve them well.

I believe that Florida will beat Alabama in the SECCG and by winning out, they could easily jump from #4 to #1 given the scenario above.

This could wind up with a Florida vs OU NCG, a Texas vs. Alabama match up and a Texas Tech vs. USC match up, with probably a Penn State vs. Utah match up and possibly a Georgia vs. Boise State match up. Can there be two "at large" bids for two non-BCS schools if they are in the top 10?

Now all of that might not work out as the Bowls are aligned to certain conferences, so for those of you who know how that works, add your two cents.

Based on these remaining schedules, how do you guys/gals see this playing out?

[Rocky Mountain Living]

I think it will be FL vs TX for the BCSNCG.
Third place will be Alabama vs OK.
All others...who knows....but I do know one thing....BYU BEATS Utah....you can take that to the bank...there is nothing else in the world that BYU would rather do now to beat their most bitter rival and crush their BCS hopes.  Yall should mark that game on the calender....I feel I am qualified because I live in MORMON country! 

[PORKINATOR]

I don't date a Mormon, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last nite. Bama vs TT. Tech has too much offense for OU's defense. Saban proves why he's worth the big bucks.

[rzrbaxfan]

B 12 champ v SEC champ, and I hope its Tech v Fla.  It still could go several ways, and be a good matchup no matter who it winds up being.

If the B12 N somehow pulls an upset, I don't see why Penn State doesn't get the bid.  If Oregon State wins out, Penn St would be the only one loss conference champ from a BCS conference, right?

PS  I dont see Utah or Boise getting a national title bid...BCS bowl maybe, but not the NC game.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I don't date a Mormon, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last nite. Bama vs TT. Tech has too much offense for OU's defense. Saban proves why he's worth the big bucks.

I'll just say this. Since 2003 season, TT has averaged 42, 36, 39, 32 and 41 points per game respectively each year. This year, they are averaging the most yet at almost 48 points a game. From 2003-2007, they played at OU twice, 2004 and 2006 and scored only 13 points in one game and 24 in other other despite having a high powered offense that scores a lot of points and puts up a lot of yards. Even at home in those other years, twice they scored in the 20's and only once did they break 30 points with 34 last year in Lubbock. They have perhaps their best offense since Leach arrived at TT and probably their best defense as well. But unless they play flawlessly in Norman, OU will find a way to win.  Additionally, since the 2000 season, OU is something like 50-2 at home in Norman.

I am not sure I would bet against OU, but on the other hand, I guess you could say they are due to lose another one in Norman?

[Ouachihog]

Fla vs OU.  Both teams win out to reach the title game. 

That will be one heck of a game. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I think it will be FL vs TX for the BCSNCG.
Third place will be Alabama vs OK.
All others...who knows....but I do know one thing....BYU BEATS Utah....you can take that to the bank...there is nothing else in the world that BYU would rather do now to beat their most bitter rival and crush their BCS hopes.  Yall should mark that game on the calender....I feel I am qualified because I live in MORMON country and date a MORMON! 

I'd love to see that vaunted and highly regarded Alabama defense go up against the fast break Texas Tech offense. Now THAT my friends would be an interesting game.

[hoghelmet14]

none of this will be necessary next year as obama wants a play off for colledge football....

[MuskogeeHogFan]

none of this will be necessary next year as obama wants a play off for colledge football....

No doubt getting that done right after he balances the budget, provides national health care and finds a way to spend twice as much as he collects in taxes. Simple stuff. Yeah, we ought to have a play off in place next year.

[hoghelmet14]

No doubt getting that done right after he balances the budget, provides national health care and finds a way to spend twice as much as he collects in taxes. Simple stuff. Yeah, we ought to have a play off in place next year.

... thats why I come here every night! LOL.. this place can be funnier than the comedy channel!

good post!

[kcabrozaR]

none of this will be necessary next year as obama wants a play off for colledge football....

He will be in charge of a lot of things, but this is not one of them.

[PORKINATOR]

MHF, I just think TT has the defense to play with the big boys this year. Even at Norman. Sooners are due to lose one that stings at home. Florida is better on paper and stars. Saban is the better coach. Bama vs TT. It would be a H*ll of a game, best matchup of all scenarios. although Tejas vs florida would be great as well.

[want2be]

Since Penn St. got beat this year falls in the hands of the BullcShit system for their method of operation. The majority of fans will like to see the two best conferences represented. SEC vs Big12

As far as Texas Tech....If you have been to Lubbock, you know why they have a home advantage!!...They have a great team and since they have a running game and defense they are not one dimensional. Their coach is crazy (in a good way) and the lineman have taken on his craziness and they are winning in the trenches......Saying all that.......they can not bring the smell of Lubbock to Norman...and they will go down!
Bud Wilkinson will be overlooking this one !!

[kingoftherapids]

none of this will be necessary next year as obama wants a play off for colledge football....

No, obama wouldnt award a national championship. he would divide all of the crystal trophy and give equal amounts to every team. regardless if one team works their arses off and one team never practices.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

MHF, I just think TT has the defense to play with the big boys this year. Even at Norman. Sooners are due to lose one that stings at home. Florida is better on paper and stars. Saban is the better coach. Bama vs TT. It would be a H*ll of a game, best matchup of all scenarios. although Tejas vs florida would be great as well.

As I said somewhere on here I do believe that Leach has the best offense, the best QB and the best defense he has had since his arrival in the american version of the Gobi desert, Lubbock, TX. Above I posted their average scoring per game/per year since 2003 and this year they are averaging more points per game than they ever have. But let's look at their total defense and scoring defense.

2003            453.38            34.0         Lost in Lubbuck 25-56
2004            357.0              26.17       Lost in Norman 13-28
2005            335.83            18.83        Won in Lubbock 23-21
2006            333.46            25.08        Lost in Norman 24-34
2007            365.38            25.92        Won in Lubbock 34-27
2008            351.40            22.20         ?

[Tusks]

Tex vs. FL/Bama winner.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

But in discussing the entire BCS, it looks like Alabama won't be beaten until they face Florida in the SECCG.

Tech will lose to OU in Norman.

Texas may get jumped by OU provided OU wins out.

Florida, with three games left, faces a potential stumbling block in SC and then later Florida State, but I think they win out and wind up in the NCG.

As I said above, I think OU beats Tech, Okla State, wins the Big 12 Championship and jumps Texas, winding up potentially, in the NCG.

USC stands no chance of getting to the NCG but can stay in a BCS game if they win out against what remains of a weak schedule.

Utah-I am hoping that BYU hands them their heads. It's bad enough that USC with a weak schedule gets into the BCS, but Mountain West and WAC schools getting in is just beyond me.

Penn State can remain in the BCS picture provided they win out and now that they got a wake up call from Iowa, I expect they will do just that.

Boise State, unfortunately, will sweep right through their last three games and wind up higher in the BCS than their current #9 ranking.

Georgia will win out with a chip on their shoulder knowing how close they were to getting to the SECCG. They'll jump a spot or two higher in the BCS and I would really hate to play them in a bowl game. They'll be ticked and they are probably the strongest team in the bottom half of the top 10.

Ohio State lurks on the edge of the top 10 hoping for a loss above them to put them back in the top 10.

With Missouri(the most likely Big North rep) and Okla State next in line, and with OSU getting beat by OU and Missouri more than likely getting beat by OU in the Big 12 CCG, that leaves Ball State, of all people, with a chance to slide into the Top 10 and a BCS Bowl. It would be a long shot, but if they win out vs. Central Michigan and Western Michigan and someone above them gets beat, we could actually see Ball State in the top 10 of the BCS, which I almost find unbelieveable.

What do all of you think about how this plays out?

[longtimeHogfan]

Tex vs. FL/Bama winner.

This is my pick, too...and I give Bama the slight edge overall.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

This is my pick, too...and I give Bama the slight edge overall.

I really think it is going to wind up being Florida vs. OU, BUT, I'd love to see Florida or Bama vs. Texas Tech.....especially Bama vs. Tech...Bama has a better "D" than Tech, but Tech's offense is so much more overwhelming than that of Alabama's that I think they might actually embarrass Alabama in a NCG.

[kingoftherapids]

Is that like spreading the wealth around???

LMAO!

Hmmm. I think you may be on to something...

[pitbull1]

Need to keep the politics out of college sports

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Need to keep the politics out of college sports

I agree, so based on that, how about your post/opinion on what the original thread stated?

[longtimeHogfan]

I really think it is going to wind up being Florida vs. OU, BUT, I'd love to see Florida or Bama vs. Texas Tech.....especially Bama vs. Tech...Bama has a better "D" than Tech, but Tech's offense is so much more overwhelming than that of Alabama's that I think they might actually embarrass Alabama in a NCG.

Alabama and TT.....yeah, I'd pay to see that one.

[Nuclearhog]

TT ended OU's BCS title hopes last year.  I believe OU was #1 or #2, when they went to TT.  They will remember that lose and take out some revenge on TT.  Emotional money is on OU.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I agree, I think OU is laying in wait for them. Also, OU is 50-2 in Norman since 2000. Not easy to go in there and come out with a win.

[arklahoman36]

I agree, I think OU is laying in wait for them. Also, OU is 50-2 in Norman since 2000. Not easy to go in there and come out with a win.

I also think the bye week serves OU more than TTech. TTech was damn hot, now has to take a week off and get enamored by their own press. OU has also lost only once coming off a bye week in the regular season since 2000.
TTech definitely has the firepower to win in Norman, but not sure they're going to be mentally tough enough to deal with: their own press, the anticipation of waiting two weeks for likely the biggest game in school history to this point and their first significant road test of the season at a venue where they've never won under Leach.
That being said, OU has had struggles with OSU in Stillwater, so even if OU ends TTech's streak, I'm not convinced they'll win in Stillwater.

[want2be]

With all the SEC vs Big12 talk this year, what would be the most matchups we could see this year. I would like to see:

BSC Championship...................Florida vs Okie or Fexus
Sugar Bowl.............................Bama vs TTech
Cotton Bowl............................Georgia vs Mizzu

Any comination of these 7 teams would be interesting matchups to prove how balanced both conferences are this year. Out of all the teams, Florida is playing the best defense at this point in the year and they have the most potential to put up the points also....I hope they shut out Superior and his Cocks and score 40....payback for sourpuss.

[want2be]

With all the SEC vs Big12 talk this year, what would be the most matchups we could see this year. I would like to see:

BSC Championship...................Florida vs Okie or Fexus
Sugar Bowl.............................Bama vs TTech
Cotton Bowl............................Georgia vs Mizzu

Any comination of these 7 teams would be interesting matchups to prove how balanced both conferences are this year. Out of all the teams, Florida is playing the best defense at this point in the year and they have the most potential to put up the points also....I hope they shut out Superior and his Cocks and score 40....payback for sourpuss.

Correction to the above...Florida has the best potential to score points in the SEC....TTech should have the best potential overall, but we will find out against the Sooners.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Correction to the above...Florida has the best potential to score points in the SEC....TTech should have the best potential overall, but we will find out against the Sooners.

Scoring points, ahhhh yes. BUT, what about defense? Florida is ranked at #14 with 286.22 allowed per game. Tech comes in at #57 allowing 357.4. OU is ranked at #51 allowing 345.6.

Red Zone Defense-Florida is #1 with opponents only scoring .600 of their times in the Red Zone. Texas Tech and Oklahoma are tied at #41 with a .790 score.

Red Zone Offense-Florida and OU are tied at #1 with a .950 effectiveness. Tech comes in at #23 and an .880 effectiveness.

Florida and OU might be the only two teams in the country that can beat Tech and one of them, they get to play next week.

[hei5manhog]

Scoring points, ahhhh yes. BUT, what about defense? Florida is ranked at #14 with 286.22 allowed per game. Tech comes in at #57 allowing 357.4. OU is ranked at #51 allowing 345.6.

Red Zone Defense-Florida is #1 with opponents only scoring .600 of their times in the Red Zone. Texas Tech and Oklahoma are tied at #41 with a .790 score.

Red Zone Offense-Florida and OU are tied at #1 with a .950 effectiveness. Tech comes in at #23 and an .880 effectiveness.

Florida and OU might be the only two teams in the country that can beat Tech and one of them, they get to play next week.

what he said, OKLA VS FL for it all

prediction for OKLA v TTECH: whatever last seasons basketball score was.

[want2be]

Scoring points, ahhhh yes. BUT, what about defense? Florida is ranked at #14 with 286.22 allowed per game. Tech comes in at #57 allowing 357.4. OU is ranked at #51 allowing 345.6.

Red Zone Defense-Florida is #1 with opponents only scoring .600 of their times in the Red Zone. Texas Tech and Oklahoma are tied at #41 with a .790 score.

Red Zone Offense-Florida and OU are tied at #1 with a .950 effectiveness. Tech comes in at #23 and an .880 effectiveness.

Florida and OU might be the only two teams in the country that can beat Tech and one of them, they get to play next week.

Florida has not been tested this year from any one who has an effective passing offense. The dominated Georgia and Stafford but I would not consider them an effective passing team this year against good competition.

That is what's makes an opponent like Okie or TTech intriguing. I don't think Florida can hold them under 30 like they have all their other opponents this year, but I do think
Florida can score more than 40 like they have done in the past 4 games. I think Florida might score +50 and the Big12 opponent would get +40.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Florida has not been tested this year from any one who has an effective passing offense. The dominated Georgia and Stafford but I would not consider them an effective passing team this year against good competition.

That is what's makes an opponent like Okie or TTech intriguing. I don't think Florida can hold them under 30 like they have all their other opponents this year, but I do think
Florida can score more than 40 like they have done in the past 4 games. I think Florida might score +50 and the Big12 opponent would get +40.

Mmmmm, "not so fast my friend"    Stafford only had a 54% completion percentage vs. Florida but threw for 292 yards. Problem was, Florida created 4 turnovers with their defense, 3 of which were INT's. Was it a poor offense? Georgia ranks #22 with 436.8 per game. Or was it just good defense? Now granted, they haven't met the #2 offense(Texas Tech) or the #3 offense(Oklahoma) this year, But the #1 offense was humbled here at Arkansas, the #4 and #5 offenses are just 5-4 on the season so far, and the #6 and #7 offenses are just 8-2 each on the season, while the 8th ranked offense is 5-4, the 9th ranked offense is 9-1 and the 10th ranked offense is only 7-3. So, bottom line to me is that while it is important tohave a dynamic and productive offense, in the absence of an equally productive defense, it may matter less where you rank as an offense. Example: Check Alabama-not exactly setting the world on fire offensively, but their defense wins games for them. Just sayin.

[want2be]

Mmmmm, "not so fast my friend"    Stafford only had a 54% completion percentage vs. Florida but threw for 292 yards. Problem was, Florida created 4 turnovers with their defense, 3 of which were INT's. Was it a poor offense? Georgia ranks #22 with 436.8 per game. Or was it just good defense? Now granted, they haven't met the #2 offense(Texas Tech) or the #3 offense(Oklahoma) this year, But the #1 offense was humbled here at Arkansas, the #4 and #5 offenses are just 5-4 on the season so far, and the #6 and #7 offenses are just 8-2 each on the season, while the 8th ranked offense is 5-4, the 9th ranked offense is 9-1 and the 10th ranked offense is only 7-3. So, bottom line to me is that while it is important tohave a dynamic and productive offense, in the absence of an equally productive defense, it may matter less where you rank as an offense. Example: Check Alabama-not exactly setting the world on fire offensively, but their defense wins games for them. Just sayin.

If trends tell a story....no team that has been ranked lower than 35 (in defense) has won the NC in the past 20 years (no link, but heard this stated on the radio today)....IF that holds true the Big 12 is a HUGE underdog to Bama or Florida......Saying that, I still am interested in seeing the match up....because the top 3 in the Big 12 can match up well with the lines and speed in the SEC.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

If trends tell a story....no team that has been ranked lower than 35 (in defense) has won the NC in the past 20 years (no link, but heard this stated on the radio today)....IF that holds true the Big 12 is a HUGE underdog to Bama or Florida......Saying that, I still am interested in seeing the match up....because the top 3 in the Big 12 can match up well with the lines and speed in the SEC.

Can't respond to that right now, but that sounds reasonable. SEC vs. Big 12 will be the premier and bst match ups of the BCS bowl season in my opinion.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

what he said, OKLA VS FL for it all

prediction for OKLA v TTECH: whatever last seasons basketball score was.

This game will be sooooooo close. I would expect that the early line on this may anywhere from -1 to -2.5 in favor of Oklahoma with an O/U of about 74 points. Neither team has had a lot of success in the FG department and they are virtually identical in run and pass defense. OU runs on average for about 60 more yards per game than Texas Tech and TT throws for about 80 more yards per game than OU. Their QB's are ranked #2(Bradford) and #7(Harrell) in passing efficiency. Both teams average about the same number of yards penalized per game as well.

Texas Tech has an edge in offensive third down conversions converting 57.8% of the time to OU's 46.4% of the time and OU has had 10 more 3rd down opportunities than Tech. OU has the edge in defensive third down conversions only allowing opponents to convert 30.1% of the time to Tech's 33.9% and Oklahoma has had to defend 3rd down conversions 22 more times this year than Tech. Ou has the edge in T/O Margin at 1.60 to 1.0, so with everything else so close, this may very well be the difference in the game.

I can't wait to see us beat Miss State next weekend and see OU beat Tech.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I also think the bye week serves OU more than TTech. TTech was damn hot, now has to take a week off and get enamored by their own press. OU has also lost only once coming off a bye week in the regular season since 2000.
TTech definitely has the firepower to win in Norman, but not sure they're going to be mentally tough enough to deal with: their own press, the anticipation of waiting two weeks for likely the biggest game in school history to this point and their first significant road test of the season at a venue where they've never won under Leach.
That being said, OU has had struggles with OSU in Stillwater, so even if OU ends TTech's streak, I'm not convinced they'll win in Stillwater.

Check this out and let me know what you think:

This game will be sooooooo close. I would expect that the early line on this may anywhere from -1 to -2.5 in favor of Oklahoma with an O/U of about 74 points. Neither team has had a lot of success in the FG department and they are virtually identical in run and pass defense. OU runs on average for about 60 more yards per game than Texas Tech and TT throws for about 80 more yards per game than OU. Their QB's are ranked #2(Bradford) and #7(Harrell) in passing efficiency. Both teams average about the same number of yards penalized per game as well.

Texas Tech has an edge in offensive third down conversions converting 57.8% of the time to OU's 46.4% of the time and OU has had 10 more 3rd down opportunities than Tech. OU has the edge in defensive third down conversions only allowing opponents to convert 30.1% of the time to Tech's 33.9% and Oklahoma has had to defend 3rd down conversions 22 more times this year than Tech. Ou has the edge in T/O Margin at 1.60 to 1.0, so with everything else so close, this may very well be the difference in the game.

I can't wait to see us beat Miss State next weekend and see OU beat Tech.

[PBHogg]

Alabama vs Oklahoma

Alabama wins out (beating FL in the SEC championship game) Stays BCS #1
OK wins out (beating TT and OK St and the Big 12 championship)  This will vault them to the BCS #2 team.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Alabama vs Oklahoma

Alabama wins out (beating FL in the SEC championship game) Stays BCS #1
OK wins out (beating TT and OK St and the Big 12 championship)  This will vault them to the BCS #2 team.

That could happen, but doggone it, if it is going to be a SEC vs. Big 12 match up for the NC, which is how it appears it could be, I sure would rather see Florida and Texas Tech go at each other or even Alabama and Tech. I think those would be more entertaining ball games, though I don't think it will happen.

[want2be]

This game will be sooooooo close. I would expect that the early line on this may anywhere from -1 to -2.5 in favor of Oklahoma with an O/U of about 74 points. Neither team has had a lot of success in the FG department and they are virtually identical in run and pass defense. OU runs on average for about 60 more yards per game than Texas Tech and TT throws for about 80 more yards per game than OU. Their QB's are ranked #2(Bradford) and #7(Harrell) in passing efficiency. Both teams average about the same number of yards penalized per game as well.

Texas Tech has an edge in offensive third down conversions converting 57.8% of the time to OU's 46.4% of the time and OU has had 10 more 3rd down opportunities than Tech. OU has the edge in defensive third down conversions only allowing opponents to convert 30.1% of the time to Tech's 33.9% and Oklahoma has had to defend 3rd down conversions 22 more times this year than Tech. Ou has the edge in T/O Margin at 1.60 to 1.0, so with everything else so close, this may very well be the difference in the game.

I can't wait to see us beat Miss State next weekend and see OU beat Tech.

I agree with all the stats and they appear close.....Tech took advantage of riding the high of the home field advantage against Texas and Ok State. I give Tech alot of credit and this is the best team they have had (Crabtree could go pro now), BUT........Okie is going to be on their HOME HIGH this time.

If Harrell can throw 50 passes w/o an interception like he did against Ok State, Tech may come out on top.

It is time for Bradford to prove he is the best QB in the nation and should be tops in the drafts. If he faulters so may the Sooners.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I agree with all the stats and they appear close.....Tech took advantage of riding the high of the home field advantage against Texas and Ok State. I give Tech alot of credit and this is the best team they have had (Crabtree could go pro now), BUT........Okie is going to be on their HOME HIGH this time.

If Harrell can throw 50 passes w/o an interception like he did against Ok State, Tech may come out on top.

It is time for Bradford to prove he is the best QB in the nation and should be tops in the drafts. If he faulters so may the Sooners.

GH won't get away with that kind of completion percentage vs. OU. This will be a close game.

[Hoggish1]

Remaining schedules for the top 10 of the current BCS.

#1 Alabama                     #2 Texas Tech
NR-Miss State-H                 #5-Oklahoma-A
NR-Auburn-H                      NR-Baylor-H

#3 Texas                         #4 Florida
NR-Kansas-A                     #25-S. Carolina-H
NR-Texas A&M-H                NR-Citadel-H
                                      #19-Florida State-A

#5 Oklahoma                    #6 Southern California
#2-Texas Tech-H                NR-Stanford-A
#13-Okla State-A                NR-Notre Dame-H
                                        NR-UCLA-A

#7 Utah                           #8 Penn State
NR-San Diego St.-A             NR-Indiana-H
#17-BYU-H                        #15-Mich State-H

#9 Boise State                   #10 Georgia
NR-Idaho-A                         NR-Auburn-A
NR-Nevada-A                       NR-Georgia Tech-H
NR-Fresno St-H

Oklahoma obviously has the most difficult remaining schedule playing the #2 and #13 teams. Florida probably has the next most difficult remaining with two of their final three games being against the #25 and #19 teams.

Alabama, for all intents and purposes should stroll undefeated into the SECCG. Florida, even with a loss to S. Carolina, will still be in the CG having already beaten the 2nd place team in the East, Georgia.

But BCS wise, there could be a lot of movement in these next three weeks. If OU wins out, they could very well jump Texas in the BCS as the remaining SOS for Texas won't serve them well.

I believe that Florida will beat Alabama in the SECCG and by winning out, they could easily jump from #4 to #1 given the scenario above.

This could wind up with a Florida vs OU NCG, a Texas vs. Alabama match up and a Texas Tech vs. USC match up, with probably a Penn State vs. Utah match up and possibly a Georgia vs. Boise State match up. Can there be two "at large" bids for two non-BCS schools if they are in the top 10?

Now all of that might not work out as the Bowls are aligned to certain conferences, so for those of you who know how that works, add your two cents.

Based on these remaining schedules, how do you guys/gals see this playing out?

This is one of the toughest things to pick ever.  It looks to me like Florida beats Alabama close in SECCG, but Florida loses in a huge upset to FL. State the week before (even though that seems remote to most, I'm thinking UF gets derailed this year in Tallahassee).

I see OK beating TTech. (I hope it doesn't happen because OK has been a big under achiever in BCS games and would lay an egg in a NCG).

To see this more clearly I need to wait for OU vs. TT.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

This is one of the toughest things to pick ever.  It looks to me like Florida beats Alabama close in SECCG, but Florida loses in a huge upset to FL. State the week before (even though that seems remote to most, I'm thinking UF gets derailed this year in Tallahassee).

I see OK beating TTech. (I hope it doesn't happen because OK has been a big under achiever in BCS games and would lay an egg in a NCG).

To see this more clearly I need to wait for OU vs. TT.

If Florida gets beat by Florida State but turns around and beats Alabama in the SECCG, guess what.......an SEC team will not be in the national championship game. So you better hope that either Florida doesn't get beat by FSU and beats Alabama, or that Alabama wins out and wins the SECCG, because those are the only two chances the SEC will have of being in the NCG.

[hawgsav1]

Remaining schedules for the top 10 of the current BCS.

#1 Alabama                     #2 Texas Tech
(W) NR-Miss State-H                 (L) #5-Oklahoma-A
(W) NR-Auburn-H                      (W) NR-Baylor-H
(W) #4 Florida

#3 Texas                         #4 Florida
(W) NR-Kansas-A                     (W)#25-S. Carolina-H
(W) NR-Texas A&M-H                (W) NR-Citadel-H
                                             (W) #19-Florida State-A
                                             (L) Alabama

#5 Oklahoma                    #6 Southern California
(W) #2-Texas Tech-H                (W)NR-Stanford-A
(W) #13-Okla State-A                (W) NR-Notre Dame-H
(W) Mizzou                               (W) NR-UCLA-A

#7 Utah                           #8 Penn State
(W) NR-San Diego St.-A             (W) NR-Indiana-H
(W) #17-BYU-H                        (W) #15-Mich State-H

#9 Boise State                   #10 Georgia
(W) NR-Idaho-A                         (W) NR-Auburn-A
(W) NR-Nevada-A                       (W) NR-Georgia Tech-H
(W) NR-Fresno St-H

The key to this will be two games: Tech vs. OU, and Bama vs. Florida.  If OU wins out against Tech and OSU, they'll probably jump Texass to get into the Big 12 championship game.  They will most likely beat Mizzou (I think OU's offense is more powerful than Mizzou's, and OU's defense, while hobbled, is still not bad).  However, the Tech game will be key.  I wouldn't bet against the Sooners in Norman, and their offense is quite capable of putting up points on the board.  While Tech's pass rush has been strong (ranked 17th nationally in sacks), OU's protection has been good (only given up 7 sacks all season).  OU's pass rush has been good also (2nd overall in sacks though losing Auston English will hurt, and it will be interesting to see how OU's loss of depth will hurt them).  Nevertheless, Texas is/was also ranked second, and Tech neutralized Texass's pass rush, so we'll see how that works out in Norman.  I don't see OSU beating OU, if Tech can't do it.  I see OU going up against Mizzou in the Big 12 title game, and I don't think Mizzou can outscore OU either.  The results will be similar to what happened with Texass, except less embarrassing. 

Everyone wants to pick FLorida over Alabama, simply because they've looked good as of late.  Frankly, Meyer has ran up the score against demoralized teams just to make his squad look good. The key for Alabama will be to not get behind big early, because that will play right into Florida's hands.  John Parker Wilson is a guy that can make passes when he needs to, but it won't be good for Bama to have to put the offense on his and Julio Jones' shoulders to win the game.  I think the question of whether Bama's defense can slow down Florida's offense will start right up at NT vs. C.  If Terrence Cody or John Chapman (who's in better shape than Cody) can occupy two blockers (Florida's linemen aren't that big, and since it's a spread offense, they often use wider splits I believe), it will open up lanes for LBs McClain and Hightower to get inside and stop Tebagged and the rest of the run game.  Also, Bama will have to maintain containment outside and have solid open field tackling (which I think they're good enough to do).  Alabama's offense is good enough to get 2-3 TDs on Florida's defense, which is a good unit, but I think Bama can overpower them up front.  I think Bama wins 28-17. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

hawgsav1:
"I think the question of whether Bama's defense can slow down Florida's offense will start right up at NT vs. C.  If Terrence Cody or John Chapman (who's in better shape than Cody) can occupy two blockers (Florida's linemen aren't that big, and since it's a spread offense, they often use wider splits I believe), it will open up lanes for LBs McClain and Hightower to get inside and stop Tebagged and the rest of the run game."

What you bring up here in regard to quickness, size and athleticism inside, is a good and traditional argument when more conventional teams play teams that run the spread. You may be right about Alabama handling Florida. But let's jump ahead for a moment and just for the sake of conversation let's assume Bama wins out and Texas Tech wins out and they face each other in the NCG.

Tech loves traditional teams like you describe Bama as being. Tech takes monster splits up front in their O-Line creating a lot of distance between the D-Line/LB's and the QB who, at Tech, is always operating out of the shotgun. Defenses tend to salivate with excitement looking at the huge splits thinking about easy it will be to blitz and stunt and get into the backfield. This of course is exactly what Tech wants because with Harrell's quick release, they will wear a defense out running their arse's off trying to get to him.....which of course, has only happened 5 times in 10 games this year.

Bama might jam up their run game, but Tech's bread and butter is the dink and dunk, dink and dunk, lull you to sleep and frustrate you with the little underneath passes and then BAM they go over the top and a defense is left wondering what the heck happened. If Tech gets Bama in the NCG, SEC fans aren't going to be happy because I think Tech would beat Bama by a minimum of 21 points and cruise to a NC.

[hawgsav1]

hawgsav1:
"I think the question of whether Bama's defense can slow down Florida's offense will start right up at NT vs. C.  If Terrence Cody or John Chapman (who's in better shape than Cody) can occupy two blockers (Florida's linemen aren't that big, and since it's a spread offense, they often use wider splits I believe), it will open up lanes for LBs McClain and Hightower to get inside and stop Tebagged and the rest of the run game."

What you bring up here in regard to quickness, size and athleticism inside, is a good and traditional argument when more conventional teams play teams that run the spread. You may be right about Alabama handling Florida. But let's jump ahead for a moment and just for the sake of conversation let's assume Bama wins out and Texas Tech wins out and they face each other in the NCG.

Tech loves traditional teams like you describe Bama as being. Tech takes monster splits up front in their O-Line creating a lot of distance between the D-Line/LB's and the QB who, at Tech, is always operating out of the shotgun. Defenses tend to salivate with excitement looking at the huge splits thinking about easy it will be to blitz and stunt and get into the backfield. This of course is exactly what Tech wants because with Harrell's quick release, they will wear a defense out running their arse's off trying to get to him.....which of course, has only happened 5 times in 10 games this year.

Bama might jam up their run game, but Tech's bread and butter is the dink and dunk, dink and dunk, lull you to sleep and frustrate you with the little underneath passes and then BAM they go over the top and a defense is left wondering what the heck happened. If Tech gets Bama in the NCG, SEC fans aren't going to be happy because I think Tech would beat Bama by a minimum of 21 points and cruise to a NC.

I see your point regarding Texas Tech and Alabama and I do agree that Tech is a better team and will most likely have a field day against Alabama.  However, I don't think we can say Tebow fits into that Graham Harrell category of the quick release.  He doesn't seem to have the passing ability of Harrell.  They (Florida) seem to like to run the ball (granted not straight up the middle. 

Alabama's 3-4 may be pretty effective at stopping the run.  On the D-line, Cody may get winded if Florida can get into a quick rhythm, but that's why I think Chapman will be able to come through for them.  He's strong enough to take on a center one on one, and may be able to disrupt Florida's linemen (though I'm very impressed with Florida's linemen.  For some reason, I thought they were small.  I looked it up, and they're pretty big and they seem pretty athletic too).

While Alabama's linebacking corps is very strong, they lack a bit in the speed department (Fanney was a converted DE), and I do agree that they may not be able to keep up with Florida's ridiculous speed.  However, it will be interesting to see how that matchup plays out.  Putting 4 LBs on the field will certainly allow for more fluidity and mobility for Alabama on defense, which should certainly help counter FLorida's speed. 

The secondary is another place where I think Alabama is very strong.  Rashad Johnson is fricking amazing.  Javier Arenas and Kareem Jackson have also had strong seasons.  I've noticed that Tebow tends to have his passes float in the air a bit, and I think Alabama's ball hawks might do pretty well against Tebow.  If Bama forces turnovers, they'll be able to control time of possession and slam the ball down Florida's throat, and keep the ball out of the hands of FLorida's offense, which will work out in their favor. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I see your point regarding Texas Tech and Alabama and I do agree that Tech is a better team and will most likely have a field day against Alabama.  However, I don't think we can say Tebow fits into that Graham Harrell category of the quick release.  He doesn't seem to have the passing ability of Harrell.  They (Florida) seem to like to run the ball (granted not straight up the middle. 

Alabama's 3-4 may be pretty effective at stopping the run.  On the D-line, Cody may get winded if Florida can get into a quick rhythm, but that's why I think Chapman will be able to come through for them.  He's strong enough to take on a center one on one, and may be able to disrupt Florida's linemen (though I'm very impressed with Florida's linemen.  For some reason, I thought they were small.  I looked it up, and they're pretty big and they seem pretty athletic too).

While Alabama's linebacking corps is very strong, they lack a bit in the speed department (Fanney was a converted DE), and I do agree that they may not be able to keep up with Florida's ridiculous speed.  However, it will be interesting to see how that matchup plays out.  Putting 4 LBs on the field will certainly allow for more fluidity and mobility for Alabama on defense, which should certainly help counter FLorida's speed. 

The secondary is another place where I think Alabama is very strong.  Rashad Johnson is fricking amazing.  Javier Arenas and Kareem Jackson have also had strong seasons.  I've noticed that Tebow tends to have his passes float in the air a bit, and I think Alabama's ball hawks might do pretty well against Tebow.  If Bama forces turnovers, they'll be able to control time of possession and slam the ball down Florida's throat, and keep the ball out of the hands of FLorida's offense, which will work out in their favor. 

If Bama plays Florida like they played MSU yesterday, and Florida plays Bama like they did S. Carolina yesterday, Florida will beat Bama by 14. Now should Texas Tech win out and wind up in the NCG, if I were them, I'd rather face Alabama than Florida. Florida, just by the nature of the team they have, I believe would give TT more fits than Alabama would.

[nwa_razorback_coffee]

When the wheels come off of Texas Tech's offense (and they will), it will be an ugly sight.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Florida SHOULD beat Bama considering their play of late, but the Tide mystique is back with Saban at the helm.  It's going to be an interesting game...like old money vs new money and the old money thinks playing for championships is a birthright.     

PorkOPine that is great analogy and steeped in championship football where the mental aspect of the game by teams is manifested in their overwhelming self confidence that a victory belongs to them because of who they are and what their program means to them and to others. However, one season does not a "mystique" make. Alabama may buy into it, and that is important, but that does not mean that others will be influenced by it. I think Florida is on a mission after being embarassed by Ole Miss. I don't see Alabama surviving an encounter with Florida, so, I see Florida representing the SEC in the NCG.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

When the wheels come off of Texas Tech's offense (and they will), it will be an ugly sight.

I'd be interested to hear what you base that theory on.

[hawgsav1]

I'd be interested to hear what you base that theory on.

I agree.  It's funny, because most teams have a game or two where their offense doesn't click or things just don't go right for a day.  However, I can't for the life of me imagine a game where Tech has had that happen to them over the past 3 years.  When they lose, it's usually because the other team outscored them.  I am thoroughly impressed with Tech's offense.