Recent Buys

[Boardon Hamsay]

In a effort to get a little more exposure outside the mag 5, 6, 7, or whatever, below are some buys I've made in the past month or so with the thought that a market broadening could supply some nice returns the rest of the year.

GE
CAT
MLM
LOW
WMT(pre split)
SCHA(small cap ETF)
EUSA(equal wgt ETF)
HSY

Everything but HSY is up 10-13%. HSY is up a percent and a half or so and it was mainly a technical and catch up trade based thesis. My thesis is that the bottom was put in aroud $179 back in December and all the cocoa commodity pricing and GLP-1 drug headwinds were priced into the stock as part of an ugly 1 yr chart. Ultimately, my catch up and technical price target of around $230 by the end of August may prove to be a bit optimistic and/or aggressive. The biggest headwind to the stock was actually PEP's earnings call where they lamented the snack business being light on guidance. After that, Campbell's comes out a couple weeks later with snack segment guidance that was positive and HSY gained on the tailwinds.

So far at least, my thesis is still intact but price wise, the resistance around $202 has held up twice and it may take a few more tests to break through it while also avoiding any new bad news. I think closing above $202 or thereabouts could setup a nice run but with this one I'm also monitoring my bail out price around $179 as if it drops below that, I think the next stop down is $150. It has bounced off higher lows around $184 from the PEP snack guidance sell off. It's definitely not a trade for everyone and I had to hold my nose a bit to buy it but it's been an interesting one to watch from a thesis and technical testing point of view.

[Boardon Hamsay]

Two previous holdings that I am also watching to maybe re-enter are CSCO and ZTS. I sold ZTS at $200 in late December because the 2 year chart was flat and I was ready to move on to something with more upside. It's plummeted in 2024 so far but it could get interesting down in the mid to low $150s.

CSCO I also sold in late December around $51 because I had little gains to show for a long position, the 5 yr chart was around par, and the broader chart showed a head and shoulders top. It could become interesting again down around $40 or so.

Neither are likely to be sexy, exciting moving stocks but not everything can be NVDA, ARM, AMD, etc. I think these are the type of stocks you keep in your bullpen to get into and out of at the right levels and collect a little yield along the way. Getting into either would probably be a 3-6 month type of position.

[rzrbackramsfan]

I'll throw down some of my favorite of the other non mag 7 picks with no explanation:

Yum brands
LIT (lithium ion etf)
Lennar/DHI/TOL/NVR(if you want to buy a 7500 stock)
RXRX
East West Bank but regional banks in general
Camden Properties or Equity Residential
Copx copper etf
Chat etf (ok mag 7 basically)
Puts on ACM
British American Tobacco (10% dividend yield) but Altria has around the same yield and Phillips morris is 6-7%

[rzrbackramsfan]

Maybe it is time for a little Hershey's in the protfolio. Cocoa has gotta be done pricing upwards.  Someone is in love with the Cocoa!

[rzrbackramsfan]

Pretty sure I caught the bottom on Hershey.

Gotta brag, though, I bought amc pits last week.  Trimmed my position by half today and threw some winnings in cat, John Deere and regions.  Not a fan of cat or John Deere but need the diversification

[Boardon Hamsay]

Just a quick update on a few names.

HSY has held up above the 12/20 closing low/12/21 intraday low and found support around $182/$183 for a bounce 3 times. The 6 month chart has been in a $20 range bound pattern with resistance coming just north of $200. Trade thesis is still intact in terms of bottom fishing but solid earnings, positive margin growth, and cocoa price normalization on 5/3 is critical for the price thesis breakout above $200 run. If I didn't own it, I'd watch from the sidelines or just find an easier stock to own as this one is a bit high maintenance.

ZTS could also be finding a bottom here around $148. That level has found support five times previously since 2021 but now ZTS has more competition. They report on 5/2. I don't own it and will probably watch it from the sidelines. I do think there's a good chance it bottoms here but I don't have a good thesis for what sends it back to $200. They better have some exciting pipeline drugs to go with Apoquel and others in their aging portfolio.

CSCO I think it can hold up here around $48 and the 3.3% yield should be safe but I don't think the Splunk acquisition is going to send it to $60 and beyond. Defensive, dividend holding that probably isn't going to hurt you too much and it's also probably not going to move much between $45 and $55.

Inflation numbers are due Friday and if it's a hot number, hang onto your skis.

[Boardon Hamsay]

I did end up holding my nose and initiating a small position on ZTS around $155, paying up a bit for a little more trustworthiness from the bottom thesis bounce off $148. Looking for a "the worst is priced in" catch up trade based momentum continuation off earnings being somewhere between not as bad as feared to an upside surprise. Not anything that I would recommend to others and more of a technical and hunch wager. I'd look to exit somewhere between $175 and $180 and then punt just below $148.

[rzrbackramsfan]

I'll throw down some of my favorite of the other non mag 7 picks with no explanation:

Yum brands
LIT (lithium ion etf)
Lennar/DHI/TOL/NVR(if you want to buy a 7500 stock)
RXRX
East West Bank but regional banks in general
Camden Properties or Equity Residential
Copx copper etf
Chat etf (ok mag 7 basically)
Puts on ACM
British American Tobacco (10% dividend yield) but Altria has around the same yield and Phillips morris is 6-7%

Update on some context buys here.

Yum, I sold off.  I thought the chizza was going to go more viral lol.

RxRx hasn't done well.  Their stock will likely fall until they make some discovery but I'm holding as long as the Nvidia founder is.

Puts on acm did really well.  I had sold out but am back in on them hoping the stock falls to 2-2.1.

Fannie Mae put out an article on a wave of homes hitting the market from boomers, but there are plenty of buyers on the sideline.  I don't think interest rates come down that much.  Still like the homebuilders but not as much.

LIT and COPX were great picks when I posted this, they're correcting a bit today.

Outside of match group which I posted about in a separate post, my favorite recent buy has been zoom.  I think they found a solid footing and gad had upwards earnings revisions as of late.

[Boardon Hamsay]

HSY reported a top and bottom line beat this am and reaffirmed guidance. Stock is once again looking to retest a nasty 7th attempt at holding above $200. If it can do that, I think it can get a little more mojo as a catch up trade. If it fails again, I'm punting it for a small gain and moving onto to the next idea(which undoubtably would send the stock to $400).

ZTS has also been acting well after some bottom fishing so I'm looking for it to continue momentum and complete that trade north of $180.

I can't find anything enticing on CSCO. Buy at $48 and collect a yield and see it sell off at $52? Just not the right conditions to do anything with it, IMO.

[Boardon Hamsay]

Hopped on some cheap, out of the money 5/10 expiration AMD $160 calls last week for .28 and sold this morning on the open for $1.21.  Good rebound bounce trade from the light guidance sell off from AMD earnings. Long run think AMD is fine and own the stock. Got into the options after seeing huge call volumes in several out of the money strikes over the next couple expirations.

Added ETN, HUBB, and VRT to my watch list as possible AI plays that are more based on the power needs to build out AI.

[rzrbackramsfan]

Right now is probably a good time to buy in general. Wall Street had high expectations and results aren't bad they're just falling short and many good stocks are getting hammered

[rzrbackramsfan]

Right now is probably a good time to buy in general. Wall Street had high expectations and results aren't bad they're just falling short and many good stocks are getting hammered

I called that narrative, brother