2017 MLB Draft Thread

[SPAL]

I think that any player chosen after the first ten rounds may not receive a bonus for more than $ 100,000. Any bonus above that amount is deducted from the club's total bonus pool. This is a place where teams with some money to play with after their selections from the first 10 rounds can take some shots on players whom they're not certain to sign.

If a team doesn't sign their pick in the first round, they lose the slot money as it can't be reallocated. It's why Daniel Tillo will sign with the pros. But they can sign kids for less that slot and can reallocate it to other picks.

It's why I'm still apprehensive on Bonnin

[dotnet]

Do worst case for us would be something like a team takes a flyer on Knight in a late round and then fails to sign one or more of their top 10 picks freeing up some money?

No. Failing to sign a player in the top ten costs you. The worst is that's team signs some college seniors or easy sign guys in the top ten and frees up some money to sign knight or bonnin early on day three

[SPAL]

Do worst case for us would be something like a team takes a flyer on Knight in a late round and then fails to sign one or more of their top 10 picks freeing up some money?

No, if they fail to sign a kid, they cannot reallocate that money.

[thebignasty]

No, if they fail to sign a kid, they cannot reallocate that money.

Cool deal.

Thanks to both of you.

[BroyledNutts]

No, if they fail to sign a kid, they cannot reallocate that money.

But they can reallocate on picks after round 10 ...? (If they can get player X form the 13th round to sign for less money, and then use that extra to reallocate to Bonnin, for example?)

[Hogbody]

But they can reallocate on picks after round 10 ...? (If they can get player X form the 13th round to sign for less money, and then use that extra to reallocate to Bonnin, for example?)

No, those are not part of the bonus pool. Would need to come from underpaying on a top 10 round player

[jry04]

I have no doubt many of our guys will be drafted tomorrow. Then, it will just be a matter of the teams waiting until they sign their top 10 round picks and seeing how much money they have available to allocate to others.

[ucahogfan]

Yeah, it all depends on pool amounts, but it's looking like we are only going to lose Tillo and Smith and get Knight back. Would say it has been a very good draft for the Hogs so far.

[jry04]

Yeah, it all depends on pool amounts, but it's looking like we are only going to lose Tillo and Smith and get Knight back. Would say it has been a very good draft for the Hogs so far.

Agreed. No way we get the first two at this point, but I would be shocked if we lose Knight. Could still lose someone like Turney, Bonnin, etc, but even getting most of them, if not all, looks very likely. I think a guy like Turney's number is probably more doable for a team beyond the 10th round than Bonnin or Knight who could potentially make 7 figures by coming/returning to school.

[yraciv]

Hmm interesting, thanks. 

Also, of our top recruits (Bonnin, Rutledge, Turney), if they end up coming to campus, will any of them be forced to stay at the UofA for 2 years based on their age? (Ex Mize)

Bonin's birthday is 10/11/98
Rutledge - 4/1/99
Turney - 1/16/99

Bonin is the oldest, and turns 21 in October 2019 (how SO enter), so I believe he with the others should be here in 2018, 2019, and 2020.

[bulldog04]

Here is a list of highly ranked undrafted SEC High School commits in MLB Top 200

Tanner Burns, RHP-Auburn
Daniel Cabrera,LHP-LSU
Jake Eder, LHP-Vandy
Bryce Bonnin, RHP/SS- Woo Pig
Brady McConnell,SS-Florida
Jackson Rutledge, RHP- Woo Pig
Kyle Jacobsen, CF-USCe
Jordan Anderson, CF-Miss St
Carmen Mlodzinski, RF-USCe
Asa Lacy, LHP-A&m
Tommy Mace, RHP-Florida
Steven Williams, C-Auburn
Hunter Ruth, RHP-Florida
Hugh Fisher, LHP-Vandy
Jack Leftwich, RHP-Florida
Pat Demarco, CF-Vandy
Cole Turney, RF-Woo Pig
Nick Storz, RHP-LSU

[TebowHater]

Bonin's birthday is 10/11/98
Rutledge - 4/1/99
Turney - 1/16/99

Bonin is the oldest, and turns 21 in October 2019 (how SO enter), so I believe he with the others should be here in 2018, 2019, and 2020.

Great research on the birthdays. Thanks for looking into this! Would be big big to have them!

[SPAL]

Here is a list of highly ranked undrafted SEC High School commits in MLB Top 200

Tanner Burns, RHP-Auburn
Daniel Cabrera,LHP-LSU
Jake Eder, LHP-Vandy
Bryce Bonnin, RHP/SS- Woo Pig
Brady McConnell,SS-Florida
Jackson Rutledge, RHP- Woo Pig
Kyle Jacobsen, CF-USCe
Jordan Anderson, CF-Miss St
Carmen Mlodzinski, RF-USCe
Asa Lacy, LHP-A&m
Tommy Mace, RHP-Florida
Steven Williams, C-Auburn
Hunter Ruth, RHP-Florida
Hugh Fisher, LHP-Vandy
Jack Leftwich, RHP-Florida
Pat Demarco, CF-Vandy
Cole Turney, RF-Woo Pig
Nick Storz, RHP-LSU

Good contribution. Thanks.

[Supermark101]

No, if they fail to sign a kid, they cannot reallocate that money.

Do they still get that same pick the next year?

[billmontgomery10]

The Twins are following the Phillies model: draft a very good player first, sign him for about 1 1/2 million less than slot and use that on other picks  over slot. They are using the money to try and sign two of LSU's best blue chippers Enlow and Bechtold. If it works, great, only time will tell. They got a break on picking Rooker so high, they are saving money on him too, plus they reached for two college pitchers who are seniors and out of options.
Don't be surprised to see them pick Knight and offer him way over slot too. This is a brand new GM and staff with the Twins. They do things differently now.

[hogwild04]

 Saw a tweet that Bonnin sent out, he also sent some out prior to the draft that indicated he was coming,

Here's to the next chapter of my life as Razorback🐗⚾️#WPS




 

[ucahogfan]

Do they still get that same pick the next year?

They get the pick after it.  The Pirates picked at 42 this year because they failed to sign Nick Lodolo at 41 last year.

[ucahogfan]

The Twins are following the Phillies model: draft a very good player first, sign him for about 1 1/2 million less than slot and use that on other picks  over slot. They are using the money to try and sign two of LSU's best blue chippers Enlow and Bechtold. If it works, great, only time will tell. They got a break on picking Rooker so high, they are saving money on him too, plus they reached for two college pitchers who are seniors and out of options.
Don't be surprised to see them pick Knight and offer him way over slot too. This is a brand new GM and staff with the Twins. They do things differently now.

Enlow is probably going to bring a 2M+ bonus and Rooker still has some leverage left and won't go for much of if any discount.  Will be interesting to follow who they draft today though.

[jry04]

The Twins are following the Phillies model: draft a very good player first, sign him for about 1 1/2 million less than slot and use that on other picks  over slot. They are using the money to try and sign two of LSU's best blue chippers Enlow and Bechtold. If it works, great, only time will tell. They got a break on picking Rooker so high, they are saving money on him too, plus they reached for two college pitchers who are seniors and out of options.
Don't be surprised to see them pick Knight and offer him way over slot too. This is a brand new GM and staff with the Twins. They do things differently now.

Yeah, they have a lot of money to play with. Both Greene and McKay wanted too much money. McKay was their #1 target, but he wouldn't accept their offer. SS was a need too, so they are still addressing a need but saving money while they are at it.

[dotnet]

I have no doubt many of our guys will be drafted tomorrow. Then, it will just be a matter of the teams waiting until they sign their top 10 round picks and seeing how much money they have available to allocate to others.

I ran the numbers a few years ago, and while there may 2 guys in the top ten rounds who don't sign.. there won't be more than 1 or 2 per round for the first 5 today who don't sign.  Meaning, teams are still trying to acquire organizational assets early on today.  And while the penalty for not signing a player is less and so the team can be riskier than it would in rounds 8-10, with very few exceptions the teams are intent on signing every player they draft early today. 

Unless there is a Tyler Benninghoff (sp?) situation, which we would know relatively early, it seems unlikely you'd lose Bonnin, Knight, or Rutledge at this point.  But there will probably be a good indication on what Shaddy and Bonfield are thinking by when they get drafted.  if they go 18-25 then they may be leaning towards coming back.  If they go in the first five rounds today then I think they're definitely gone

[jry04]

I ran the numbers a few years ago, and while there may 2 guys in the top ten rounds who don't sign.. there won't be more than 1 or 2 per round for the first 5 today who don't sign.  Meaning, teams are still trying to acquire organizational assets early on today.  And while the penalty for not signing a player is less and so the team can be riskier than it would in rounds 8-10, with very few exceptions the teams are intent on signing every player they draft early today. 

Unless there is a Tyler Benninghoff (sp?) situation, which we would know relatively early, it seems unlikely you'd lose Bonnin, Knight, or Rutledge at this point.  But there will probably be a good indication on what Shaddy and Bonfield are thinking by when they get drafted.  if they go 18-25 then they may be leaning towards coming back.  If they go in the first five rounds today then I think they're definitely gone

Don't forget Turney.

[dotnet]

Don't forget Turney.

yeah, hes with the unlikely to lose group to me.  I forget about him because I actually always (read the last month or so) thought he would get to campus based on all the rumors.

This draft makes me even more bummed about losing Vitello.  He definitely did a great job of getting high end talent that actually really wanted to play in college. 

[HogFansReunited]

Can anyone explain how Knight fell so far. I really expected him to be taken in the 3rd round maybe 4th at the very least.

[jry04]

Ryan Gridley, the MSU SS, was taken in the 11th. Doug Still, the Lefty ace for MSU, was taken in the 11th, as well.

Zero recruits or Arkansas players went in the 11th round.

[jry04]

Can anyone explain how Knight fell so far. I really expected him to be taken in the 3rd round maybe 4th at the very least.

He would have been, but if he returns he will go no worse than that, but likely 2nd or 1st. He likely told teams to pay him 2nd round or maybe 1st round money or he will go back to school. Teams aren't going to draft you in the top 10 rounds if they do not think they can sign you. Instead, they will draft kids in these later rounds and hope they can work something out. Knight fell because of his own doing, not his talent. He made a smart decision in my opinion.

[rolyat_2008]

Dakota Bennett went in the eleventh round...

[onebadrubi]

Can anyone explain how Knight fell so far. I really expected him to be taken in the 3rd round maybe 4th at the very least.

Only a guess but my guess is he wanted too much money.

[HogFansReunited]

He would have been, but if he returns he will go no worse than that, but likely 2nd or 1st. He likely told teams to pay him 2nd round or maybe 1st round money or he will go back to school. Teams aren't going to draft you in the top 10 rounds if they do not think they can sign you. Instead, they will draft kids in these later rounds and hope they can work something out. Knight fell because of his own doing, not his talent. He made a smart decision in my opinion.

Thanks. That makes sense.

[jry04]

Dakota Bennett went in the eleventh round...

Good call, I missed that. I am so worried about tracking if Bonnin, Turney, Rutledge, Milligan, and Opitz go that I overlooked him. The 4 I listed are the guys I think we really need to get to campus. I would assume Bennett's number will be met.

[bosshog84]

Thru 12 rounds now and still looking good!

[gutshot]

I think that any player chosen after the first ten rounds may not receive a bonus for more than $ 100,000. Any bonus above that amount is deducted from the club's total bonus pool.

This is correct, but I think that has been raised to $125K this year.  I'm trying to track down where I read that last week.

[rolyat_2008]

It is $125k 11-40

[gutshot]

Every choice in the top 10 rounds has an assigned value, and the total for each of a club's selections equals what it can spend in those rounds without incurring a penalty. Any bonus money above $125,000 given to an individual player picked in rounds 11-40 also counts against a team's bonus pool.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/223686792/2017-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-pick-values/

[navyhog24]

Dakota Bennett went in the eleventh round...

I'm assuming they think he signs being drafted that high. Sucks to lose a lefty

[jry04]

I'm assuming they think he signs being drafted that high. Sucks to lose a lefty

I would assume so. The good news is we have Lucas Krull, Murphy, Lee, and Cronin all as LHP. Weston Rogers too, if he returns. Plus Milligan, Cwik, and Bonds all committed.

Honestly, it would do us some good to see some of the kids at the bottom of our recruiting class take lower offers. We are going to have to do some serious cutting if the draft continues to go the way we hope. There will be a lot of current players asked to look elsewhere, more than likely. Imagine if by chance Shaddy and Bonfield also want to return. I have a list of guys I think probably end up leaving the program just because the numbers have to work themselves out.

[bighog2255]

It is $125k 11-40

Am I thinking about this wrong.....or is that basically saying it doesn't matter where someone is drafted rounds 11-40, as long as they get their "number" for signing bonus?

[PintailKiller]

Am I thinking about this wrong.....or is that basically saying it doesn't matter where someone is drafted rounds 11-40, as long as they get their "number" for signing bonus?

Any amount over $125K counts against the total signing pool that each team has.

[jry04]

Am I thinking about this wrong.....or is that basically saying it doesn't matter where someone is drafted rounds 11-40, as long as they get their "number" for signing bonus?

A team has to save in the first 10 rounds to be able to offer anything over $125k. The later this thing goes, the less likely you are to get much more than $125k.

[jry04]

Thru 15 rounds Bonnin, Turney, Rutledge, Milligan, Opitz, and Knight are all still undrafted. Looking great.

Bonnin and Rutledge are among the top 15 available prospects.

[bighog2255]

A team has to save in the first 10 rounds to be able to offer anything over $125k. The later this thing goes, the less likely you are to get much more than $125k.

I think I get it. Let's just take Bonnin for example...if someone really wants him, and his number is say, $200k (probably higher, but work with me here)....does it matter whether he is drafted in the 11th round or the 26th round? If they gave him his $200k?

Just trying to understand. Baseball draft is so odd.

[PintailKiller]

I think I get it. Let's just take Bonnin for example...if someone really wants him, and his number is say, $200k (probably higher, but work with me here)....does it matter whether he is drafted in the 11th round or the 26th round? If they gave him his $200k?

Just trying to understand. Baseball draft is so odd.

If that team has the extra $75K from it's draft signing pool, then it does not matter where he is drafted after the 11th round.

[jry04]

I think I get it. Let's just take Bonnin for example...if someone really wants him, and his number is say, $200k (probably higher, but work with me here)....does it matter whether he is drafted in the 11th round or the 26th round? If they gave him his $200k?

Just trying to understand. Baseball draft is so odd.

No, it doesn't matter technically. However, the guys they are taking now they are likely taking because they think they can sign them and are probably going to sign them for over $125k. A guy drafted in the 11th round may say his number is $300k and the team says we can do that. Then a guy taken in the 12th round says his is $300k, and they take him for that, too. Now, they are using $350k out of their bonus pool money because of those two guys signing a combined $350k over $125k. If Bonnin was drafted in the 26th round there probably isn't as much money left if they truly give the guys taken before him a higher signing priority. Bonnin and Knight going late are more than likely just picks to develop a relationship with them, and in case something goes wrong with other picks. Some guys they draft in the 11-20th may decide against signing so that frees up money to make a better offer at some of the later picks.

[woodrow hog call]

I would assume so. The good news is we have Lucas Krull, Murphy, Lee, and Cronin all as LHP. Weston Rogers too, if he returns. Plus Milligan, Cwik, and Bonds all committed.

Honestly, it would do us some good to see some of the kids at the bottom of our recruiting class take lower offers. We are going to have to do some serious cutting if the draft continues to go the way we hope. There will be a lot of current players asked to look elsewhere, more than likely. Imagine if by chance Shaddy and Bonfield also want to return. I have a list of guys I think probably end up leaving the program just because the numbers have to work themselves out.

You make a good point that people don't think about a lot. The Scholarship money and roster spots, don't stretch any, it's another cold hard fact in the life of a college baseball player.
"We would love to have you come back, but we just don't have a spot for you", is not what a returning Sr wants to hear.

[WhenPigsFly]

Can anyone explain how Knight fell so far. I really expected him to be taken in the 3rd round maybe 4th at the very least.

Or maybe he just decided he wants to stay in college another year.

[Hog in Iowa]

Or maybe he just decided he wants to stay in college another year.

I think (and hope) you're right.  If he stays and puts in the work on gaining some weight he should be no worse than 2nd round next draft.

[hogfan14]

Blake Wiggins goes in the 20th round to the Reds

[PorkRyan]

Are we getting Bonfield back as well?  We are going to be stacked next year. 

[JonClaudeVanHam]

Are we getting Bonfield back as well?  We are going to be stacked next year.

I don't like Bonfield in the pros (what position does he play?), but I'm no scout and I was under the impression that scouts really liked him. At this point does he really risk much other than injury by returning?

[Grizzlyfan]

I don't like Bonfield in the pros (what position does he play?), but I'm no scout and I was under the impression that scouts really liked him. At this point does he really risk much other than injury by returning?

I don't know how much he would be risking.  I'm not saying that $125,000 isn't serious money  but after you take out some taxes, buy a new truck and a bass boat, pay for an engagement ring for that long time girl friend, buy mom something nice.  That money is gone in the blink of an eye.  How much more valuable could another year in school be compared to that risk?

[bighog2255]

I don't know how much he would be risking.  I'm not saying that $125,000 isn't serious money  but after you take out some taxes, buy a new truck and a bass boat, pay for an engagement ring for that long time girl friend, buy mom something nice.  That money is gone in the blink of an eye.  How much more valuable could another year in school be compared to that risk?

I hope Bonfield (and Shaddy) come back for being an Arkansas fan sake, but it seems like their $$ wouldn't change much by coming back for another year.