Jacob Schlesener Signing Watch

[ucahogfan]

With the signing deadline nearing, I figured it would be good to start this thread and see what the Cardinals can potentially give him.

Cardinals Pool for 2015 - $7,387,600 * 1.05 = $7,756,980

The last number above is the highest the Cards can go without incurring any severe penalty.

Here are their draft picks in the top 10 rounds:

1.  Nick Plummer - Signed for $2,124,400 (Full Slot Value)
2.  Jake Woodford - Signed for $1,800,000 (Over Slot by $214,600)
3.  Bryce Denton - Signed for $1,200,000 (Over Slot by $264,600)
4.  Harrison Bader - Signed for $400,000 (Under Slot by $170,300)
5.  Jordan Hicks - Signed for $600,000 (Over Slot by $56,700)
6.  Paul DeJong - Signed for $200,000 (Under Slot by $222,900)
7.  Ryan Helsley - Signed for $225,000 (Under Slot by $91,500)
8.  Jacob Evans - Signed for $150,000 (Under Slot by $87,000)
9.  Jesse Jenner - Signed for $10,000 (Under Slot by $169,100)
10.  Ian Oxvenad - Signed for $500,000 (Over Slot by $332,600)
11.  Andrew Brodbeck - Signed for $5,000 (Under Slot by $151,200)
12.  Kep Brown - Unsigned (Slot of $149,700)

By my calculations, the Cards have already spend $7,214,400 out of the maximum $7,599,795 they can spend should they fail to sign Brown.  I would think Brown probably takes $500K being a HS player which would take the remainder of their pool.  I am not aware of any players they have given more than $100K to outside the top 10 rounds currently.

So, if they sign Brown, I just don't see them having the money let over to give Schlesener should both their numbers be in the $500K neighborhood.  However, if they fail to sign Brown, the Cards will be able to give Schlesener about $475K which might get the job done without knowing his number.

[snf6278]

Great work uca. I know it's been said a thousand times but you guys make EI the best there is!

[21chill]

Thanks UCA.  I'm a baseball guy, don't post often but log in here specifically to read your analysis.  I don't always agree but you know your stuff. 

[lookawayquick]

STL media skeptical about a Kep Brown signing.  Cards have signed their top 9 picks.  Haven't read much about  Schlesener.  Keep the faith.

[yraciv]

What is up with guys signing for 5,000 and 10,000? I know one was a SR with limited options, but my gosh play some hardball and get 25,0000.  Your a top 11 round pick and now your essentially playing for peanuts.  Got to love it when that high school kid picked around you got 500,000.

[rolyat_2008]

What is up with guys signing for 5,000 and 10,000? I know one was a SR with limited options, but my gosh play some hardball and get 25,0000.  Your a top 11 round pick and now your essentially playing for peanuts.  Got to love it when that high school kid picked around you got 500,000.

Zero leverage, you can't play hardball as a senior. What are you going to do not play pro ball?

[bulldog04]

What is up with guys signing for 5,000 and 10,000? I know one was a SR with limited options, but my gosh play some hardball and get 25,0000.  Your a top 11 round pick and now your essentially playing for peanuts.  Got to love it when that high school kid picked around you got 500,000.

Yeah 5k blows my mind

[flippinhogmana]

What is up with guys signing for 5,000 and 10,000? I know one was a SR with limited options, but my gosh play some hardball and get 25,0000.  Your a top 11 round pick and now your essentially playing for peanuts.  Got to love it when that high school kid picked around you got 500,000.

got the same question Yraciv...I figured maybe they were college seniors?

[southarkhog06]

$5,000 and $10,000 and then some Jap or Cuban gets signed for $8,000,000. What a screwed up system.

Cmon man really?

anyway, How many college seniors have first or second year production like Puig, Ichiro, Cespedis, or Darvish? GMs are running a business the arent gonna pay extra just cause a kid is 'Murican.

[ucahogfan]

STL media skeptical about a Kep Brown signing.  Cards have signed their top 9 picks.  Haven't read much about  Schlesener.  Keep the faith.

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB  · 7h7 hours ago 
Nope, @Cardinals lack $ to sign him. Worthwhile gamble in 10th rd. Other 89 guys in rds 8-10 signed. @xxNewbBoyxx: No Kep Brown? @MLBDraft

Looks like you're right.  It seemed weird for them to take a Miami commit in the 10th round especially someone as highly touted as Brown.  It would have been a great get if they had managed to sign him.

[ucahogfan]

Cmon man really?

anyway, How many college seniors have first or second year production like Puig, Ichiro, Cespedis, or Darvish? GMs are running a business the arent gonna pay extra just cause a kid is 'Murican.

How about the Diamondbacks paying 16M (8M bonus, 8M penalty) for a 22 year old Yoan Lopez who has an upside of #3 starter?  And then they ship 19 year old Touki Touissant who has ace potential with two 70 pitches at his best to save about 14.5M on Bronson Arroyo.  Doesn't make much sense to me.

Or how about the Red Sox paying 63M (31.5M bonus, 31.5M penalty) for a 19 year old Yoan Moncada?  Sure, he is a top 10 prospect, but was still a teenager when he signed.

The FA market for international players is definitely more profitable for players compared to the draft.  Brady Aiken would have probably gotten 30+M last year had all teams been able to talk to him and not just the Astros.

[onebadrubi]

Somebody needs to pull a Curt Flood and fix this.

For us that don't know what this is, care to explain?

[southarkhog06]

How about the Diamondbacks paying 16M (8M bonus, 8M penalty) for a 22 year old Yoan Lopez who has an upside of #3 starter?  And then they ship 19 year old Touki Touissant who has ace potential with two 70 pitches at his best to save about 14.5M on Bronson Arroyo.  Doesn't make much sense to me.

Or how about the Red Sox paying 63M (31.5M bonus, 31.5M penalty) for a 19 year old Yoan Moncada?  Sure, he is a top 10 prospect, but was still a teenager when he signed.

The FA market for international players is definitely more profitable for players compared to the draft.  Brady Aiken would have probably gotten 30+M last year had all teams been able to talk to him and not just the Astros.

well theres a reason the Dbacks havent been winning much, Im all for changing  the system for International players, maybe make them be drafted like the NBA does?, but that doesnt mean start throwing a fit and using racial slurs like homboy did in the post i quoted.

[flippinhogmana]

For us that don't know what this is, care to explain?

curt Flood was an above average centerfielder for the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1960's.  He was traded to the Phillies (in 1969 if memory serves me right, been a long time unsure of the date) along with I believe Tim McCarver and a couple of other players for I believe three Philly players who never really amounted to much for the Cards. 

Curt Flood refused to go.  He in effect challenged MLB right to his rights,  it took about five or six years for his case to get through the courts but he won.  It severely curtailed baseball's trading ability but they have largely found ways around that now through personal services contract and union bargaining agreements.  Still they don't have as much unbridled 'ownership' as they once did.

I think the op is alluding to that in a figurative way.

I think also I should expand on how it affected player rights-again if memory serves, I believe his lawyer was named Miller and they targeted the 'reserve clause' in MLB at the time.  I think that is how 'free agency' started.  Curt Flood payed a heavy price for the benefits others who followed him.  He was in the peak of his earnings career and lost them.  As I recall the suit and its duration broke him physically and emotionally.  Like I said, he paid a heavy price and didnt get that much out of it, but others have since.

I was young (not that young, 18) when it happened and wouldnt remember it at all, but Curt was one of my favorite Cards at the time.  I hated it when they traded him, and I hated it when he couldn't play for years later.

[pignparadise]

curt Flood was an above average centerfielder for the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1960's.  He was traded to the Phillies (in 1969 if memory serves me right, been a long time unsure of the date) along with I believe Tim McCarver and a couple of other players for I believe three Philly players who never really amounted to much for the Cards. 

Curt Flood refused to go.  He in effect challenged MLB right to his rights,  it took about five or six years for his case to get through the courts but he won.  It severely curtailed baseball's trading ability but they have largely found ways around that now through personal services contract and union bargaining agreements.  Still they don't have as much unbridled 'ownership' as they once did.

I think the op is alluding to that in a figurative way.

I think also I should expand on how it affected player rights-again if memory serves, I believe his lawyer was named Miller and they targeted the 'reserve clause' in MLB at the time.  I think that is how 'free agency' started.  Curt Flood payed a heavy price for the benefits others who followed him.  He was in the peak of his earnings career and lost them.  As I recall the suit and its duration broke him physically and emotionally.  Like I said, he paid a heavy price and didnt get that much out of it, but others have since.

I was young (not that young, 18) when it happened and wouldnt remember it at all, but Curt was one of my favorite Cards at the time.  I hated it when they traded him, and I hated it when he couldn't play for years later.

Curt Flood was more than "better than average". In 1968 Sports Illustrated named him baseball's best center fielder on an SI cover.

[azhog10]

How about the Diamondbacks paying 16M (8M bonus, 8M penalty) for a 22 year old Yoan Lopez who has an upside of #3 starter?  And then they ship 19 year old Touki Touissant who has ace potential with two 70 pitches at his best to save about 14.5M on Bronson Arroyo.  Doesn't make much sense to me.

It was magical what the braves did to get him. I think one of the best moves I've seen in a while.

[flippinhogmana]

Curt Flood was more than "better than average". In 1968 Sports Illustrated named him baseball's best center fielder on an SI cover.

I dont disagree.  As I said, he was one of my favorite Cards.  I watched and listened to Cards broadcasts since I was about ten so I have watched him for several years by that time.  Most major league centerfielders were good (Mays, Mantle, etc.) so describing one of my heroes as 'above average' was no insult, but was instead being modest on his behalf.  He was a very good player, and as I recall, a very good hitter, not a lot of homers but a good average, usually hit second, if again I remember correctly, behind Lou Brock.

And thanks for the pic.

[dotnet]

Back to the point - if Brown doesn't sign, then the total pool shrinks to 7,599,795 because the cardinals lose that slot amount as part of their bonus pool. 

This means they $385,395 left in their budget to give someone.  So they can give Schlesener a total of $485,395, assuming no other 11th round or later draft pick gets a dollar over $100,000. 

I am not sure what his figure is, but hopefully it is more than that.  The cardinals have signed a lot of players outside the top ten.  Quite a few of them had leverage but I am not sure if the amounts help or not at this point.

[Big Nasty 34]

I have heard he wants 400,000+. May be close.

[ucahogfan]

It was magical what the braves did to get him. I think one of the best moves I've seen in a while.

As a huge Braves fan, I was stoked about the trade.  We traded a backup INF for 14.5M of dead money in Arroyo and a potential future ace.  With international players without as high a ceiling as Touki (albeit with a much higher floor) costing teams 15-20M now such as Lopez, getting him for 14.5M is well worth the risk IMO.

[boaron]

How about the Diamondbacks paying 16M (8M bonus, 8M penalty) for a 22 year old Yoan Lopez who has an upside of #3 starter?  And then they ship 19 year old Touki Touissant who has ace potential with two 70 pitches at his best to save about 14.5M on Bronson Arroyo.  Doesn't make much sense to me.

Or how about the Red Sox paying 63M (31.5M bonus, 31.5M penalty) for a 19 year old Yoan Moncada?  Sure, he is a top 10 prospect, but was still a teenager when he signed.

The FA market for international players is definitely more profitable for players compared to the draft.  Brady Aiken would have probably gotten 30+M last year had all teams been able to talk to him and not just the Astros.

If they don't sign Brown, they will get a supplemental pick next year, isn't that right?  Could this have been their plan all along?  Didn't he drop because of signability?

Edit: I meant to quote your Brown post.

[Scott7703]

Have heard there is a good chance Schlesener signs. Obviously nothing is certain but I'm guessing there is more money available than originally expected after not signing the Miami signee.

[dotnet]

Have heard there is a good chance Schlesener signs. Obviously nothing is certain but I'm guessing there is more money available than originally expected after not signing the Miami signee.

Nope, the money is the same.  They signed Paul Salazar for $200k.  So assuming no other lower than 10th round pick has signed for over $100k, then the cardinals can give Schlesener $385k.

It all depends on what his number to sign is and what is in the Cardinals plans for signing other picks.  Most teams intend to sign their 12th round draft pick.

[justmaybe]

Curt flood did more than curtail the teams trading ability. He created free agency.

[JHicks3636]

Found this article

http://www.news-leader.com/story/sports/baseball/2015/07/01/cardinals-increase-talks-rogersville-pitcher/29598225/

[The_Iceman]

He just agreed to a deal with the Cardinals. #HeGone

[lookawayquick]

According to Derrick Goold with the STL Post Dispatch @dgoold, JS has agreed to a deal pending his physical.  Signed for over slot.  Good for Jacob.  Hope he becomes a star pitcher for the Cards!

[texas tush hog]

Yeah 5k blows my mind

There is zero negotiation as a SR past the 6th round. They talk to you about SR money which is either $1,000,00, $5,000.00 or $10,000.00. Those are the only three signing figures for seniors past the 6th round. If a player does not get drafted and sign as a junior or below he is screwed. The MLB teams hold all the cards.

FYI:  Both Jesse Jenner (7th round $10,000.00)and Andrew Brodbeck( 9th round $5000.00) were both SR's and there are no slot values for SR's for 7th round and beyond.