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College Football Playoff Projections and Committee Rankings

Started by jbcarol, October 26, 2014, 07:24:14 am

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jbcarol

 Big 12 Conference ‏@Big12Conference 18h18 hours ago

We're just going to leave this here. #Big12FB

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 Michael Carvell ‏@Carvell_AJC 4m4 minutes ago

National championship sites announced for 2018-2020 http://trib.al/HHe45Hy

Quote
    2018: Atlanta, Ga. (TBD)
    2019: Santa Clara, Calif. (Levi's Stadium)
    2020: New Orleans, La. (Mercedes-Benz Superdome)

The games in 2016 and 2017 are scheduled to be played at University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.) and Raymond-James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.), respectively.
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jbcarol

Chris Low ‏@ClowESPN 8h8 hours ago Hartford, CT

According to the FPI, LSU and Baylor have the toughest remaining schedules of the top 8 teams. Clemson and Notre Dame have the easiest.
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Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 3h3 hours ago

.@LVSuperBook title odds: Ala/OhioSt 5-2, Clem 4-1 Bay 12-1, Stan 15-1, OkSt/ND 18-1, OU 20-1, UF/Iowa/LSU 25-1, MichSt/TCU 40-1, Utah 80-1
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AL.com sports ‏@aldotcomSports 20m20 minutes ago

"When it comes to quality wins, no one has a more impressive win right now nationally than #Alabama." – @MattScalici http://ow.ly/Utxr7

QuoteOne thing we learned from last week's debut edition of the rankings is that the playoff selection committee clearly places a heavier emphasis on accomplishments rather than failures. A better way of putting it: it's not who you've lost to but who you've beaten that matters the most to the playoff committee.
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jbcarol

Curated SEC Infotainment and aggregated college sports updates where it just means more on Hogville.net

jbcarol

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 12h12 hours ago

Wins vs. current @CFBPlayoff T25:

Bama, Clem, Iowa, LSU, ND 2 each;

Mich., MichSt, Navy, NW, OkSt, Stan, Utah 1 each;

Everyone else: 0
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Bruce Feldman ‏@BruceFeldmanCFB Nov 11

.@ToddFuhrman asked me & others whether it'd be a good idea if an oddsmaker was on the CFP Playoff committee: http://www.toddstake.com/2015/11/10/oddsmaker-on-the-committee/ ...

QuoteIn order to create an equal playing field there needs to be that math guy balancing out the process among college football blue bloods and athletic directors. Who better than an oddsmaker to share his or her take on proper valuations of the best teams in the land...
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Todd Fuhrman ‏@ToddFuhrman Nov 12

VEGAS TOP 10: Oddsmakers share their college football rankings (SPOILER ALERT: Iowa didn't make my top 10) http://www.sportsline.com/insiders/25371648/vegas-top-10-do-the-cowboys-hawkeyes-have-a-beef/ ...

QuoteThanks to the oddsmaking team at Bookmaker for providing us with a snapshot of four potential playoff games/national championship scenarios:

Clemson (-2.5) vs. Oklahoma
Alabama (-3) vs. Ohio State
Oklahoma (-5.5) vs. Iowa
Baylor (-5) vs. Stanford
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Chris Low ‏@ClowESPN  3h3 hours ago Connecticut, USA
How good a job has Art Briles done? Baylor won 14 Big 12 games in its first 14 years in the league. Bears have won 13 last year and a half.
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jbcarol

Curated SEC Infotainment and aggregated college sports updates where it just means more on Hogville.net

jbcarol

Ralph D. Russo ‏@ralphDrussoAP 6h6 hours ago

PLAYOFF PULSE: Pac-12 falls out; Baylor in big trouble. Predicting Tuesday's rankings; Projecting the final four.
http://collegefootball.ap.org/article/playoff-pulse-scratch-stanford-baylor-big-trouble ...

QuotePREDICTING TUESDAY'S RANKINGS

1. Clemson

2. Alabama

3. Ohio State

4. Notre Dame

5. Iowa

6. Oklahoma

7. Oklahoma State

___

PROJECTING THE FINAL FOUR

Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma.
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Chris Low ‏@ClowESPN 6h6 hours ago Connecticut, USA

My top four this week is same as last week: 1. Clemson, 2. Alabama, 3. Ohio State, 4. Oklahoma State. Notre Dame is No. 5 and Iowa is No. 6.
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jbcarol

Heather Dinich ‏@CFBHeather 22h22 hours ago

Your Week 11 @CFBPlayoff winners and losers: http://es.pn/1Qp3YxU

Winners include the Oklahoma schools

QuoteWinners

Florida: Don't forget about the Gators. They fell into the shadows after a pedestrian performance against Vanderbilt in Week 10, but they've already clinched the SEC East and should be favored in their two remaining games, against FAU and rival Florida State. If a one-loss Florida team can knock off Alabama in the SEC title game, it should be in the top four.

Losers

Pac-12...

LSU: Forget about the top four; LSU is trying to hang on to second place in the SEC West. The loss to Arkansas coupled with Alabama's win against Mississippi State was a dagger to LSU's playoff hopes. The Tigers have lost back-to-back games, Leonard Fournette is no longer the Heisman front-runner, and a road trip to Ole Miss looms.
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Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 14h14 hours ago

ESPN's Top 10 strength of record rankings, which measures the impressiveness of a team's W-L given its schedule

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 AL.com sports ‏@aldotcomSports 5h5 hours ago

#Oklahoma's Bob Stoops says Sooners should be in College Football Playoff, takes subtle jab at SEC http://ow.ly/ULZZ1 

Quote"I don't know how you couldn't," Stoops said Monday night in an interview on ESPN's SportsCenter. "If you go on the road and beat the No. 6 team in the country, you beat the No. 11 team in the country (TCU) and Oklahoma State also on the road -- the No. 4 team in the country -- who else is doing that at the end of the year, or even through the whole year?

"Look at whoever else has won, and what top teams have they beaten?" Stoops said on the broadcast. "If you're able to do that, then certainly you should be one of those teams. And also, by the way, won on the road to Tennessee, one of those SEC teams."
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jbcarol

CFBPlayoff ‏@CFBPlayoff 50s50 seconds ago

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame

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jbcarol

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 58m58 minutes ago

.@LVSuperBook lines using current @CFBPlayoff pairings: Clemson -3.5 Notre Dame; Alabama -4 Ohio State
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jbcarol

Hanging onto the past or sending a message?

Chuck Dunlap Retweeted
BCSKnowHow.com ‏@BCSKnowHow Nov 17

Side-by-side comparison of the new @CFBPlayoff ranking and what the #BCS would have looked like this week

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jbcarol

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 3h3 hours ago

Unless Ohio upsets NIU next week, Toledo can't win MAC so American champ (Navy, UH or Temple) all but guaranteed New Year's 6 bowl berth
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Michael Carvell ‏@Carvell_AJC 8h8 hours ago

Quick Reactions: Florida's College Football Playoff rankings drop could ultimately bring doom to SEC http://trib.al/jOjhlsG

QuoteNo. 12 Florida suddenly has minimal odds of vaulting eight spots in the coming days, short of routing Florida State and Alabama (SEC championship) by 30 points apiece over the next two weekends.

If Florida had trouble taking down Vanderbilt (by two points) and Florida Atlantic (overtime) at home, then Alabama should be a heavy favorite for next week's SEC championship. Of course, the No. 2 Crimson Tide (10-1 overall) still need to take care of business this week (at Auburn), before booking a trip to Atlanta.

An Iron Bowl defeat would also open the door for No. 18 Ole Miss (8-3 overall, 5-2 SEC; tiebreaker advantage over Alabama) potentially claiming the SEC West title. In that scenario, a Gators-Rebels championship bout probably wouldn't thrill the Playoff committee too much.
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CFBPlayoff ‏@CFBPlayoff Nov 24

Full #CFP25 for games played through November 21 http://bit.ly/1Lyb1g5

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Michael Carvell ‏@Carvell_AJC 9h9 hours ago

3 scenarios where SEC champion Florida could miss the College Football Playoff http://trib.al/lqFi7vC

QuoteFlorida has a daunting two weeks ahead, but beating rival Florida State and upsetting Alabama in the SEC Championship game should vault the Gators into the College Football Playoff. [This is arguably a tougher task than winning the two playoff games.]

First, let's examine the Gators' schedule. At this point, Florida's best win is clearly against Ole Miss, which is currently No. 18 in the Playoff rankings. The second-best win is ... well, here is the beginning of Florida's problem.

According to the computers, Florida's next-best wins are Tennessee at No. 28 and UGA at No. 29.

The entire SEC West is ranked in the top 35, but the bottom four schools in the SEC East are not helping the Gators. Missouri, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and South Carolina are all ranked between 66 and 85. So too is another Florida opponent, East Carolina, which checks in at No. 80. Florida Atlantic (No. 115) and New Mexico State (No .111) ... well, the Gators got what they paid for.

Scenario No. 1

    Clemson wins out
    Iowa or Michigan State wins out
    Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State
    Notre Dame beats Stanford

Scenario No. 2

    Clemson wins out
    Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State
    Notre Dame beats Stanford
    Michigan State loses to Penn State, Ohio State beats Michigan and Iowa

Scenario No. 3

    Clemson wins out
    Iowa or Michigan State wins out
    Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State
    Stanford beats Notre Dame and UCLA
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Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN  2h2 hours ago
Toledo loss virtually guarantees American champion will get New Year's 6 Group of 5 berth
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jbcarol

 Heather Dinich ‏@CFBHeather 10h10 hours ago

TCU's double OT win over Baylor knocked the Bears out of the CFP and race for the Big 12 title, leaving Oklahoma...  ...
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Brian Davis Verified account
‏@BDavisAAS

Props to Art Briles for trying to find Patterson afterward. No kudos to maniac TCU fans trying to get in Briles' face.
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https://twitter.com/CFBHeather/status/670795706798575616

Chris Low ‏@ClowESPN 8m8 minutes ago

Chris Low Retweeted Heather Dinich

Heather, I didn't see the eye test on that list.
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jbcarol

ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo  6m6 minutes ago
No. 9 Stanford makes a 45-yard FG as time expires to beat No. 6 Notre Dame, 38-36!
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jbcarol

ESPN Stats & InfoVerified account ‏@ESPNStatsInfo  24m24 minutes ago
Oklahoma: 5-0 against AP-ranked teams this season after going 0-4 in such games in 2014; most such wins by any team this season w/o a loss
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jbcarol

Heather Dinich ‏@CFBHeather 23h23 hours ago

Your Week 13 @CFBPlayoff perspective: The Power 5 Path to the Playoff http://es.pn/1TeWgV3

Simple. Bama loses it's out, no league title. Florida wins the SEC, SEC is toast. No way Gators are a top 4 team.
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jbcarol

Ralph D. Russo ‏@ralphDrussoAP 30m30 minutes ago

If Alabama is overrated you should be happy to play'em in playoff. Sure plenty of Bama fans were happy to draw Ohio St, until they weren't
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jbcarol

Chuck Dunlap ‏@SEC_Chuck  7h7 hours ago
11 bowl teams on the schedule have propelled Alabama to the top of the computers by a decent margin: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/rankings/2015/11/30/college-football-computer-composite-ranking-alabama-clemson-ohio-state/76549912/ ...

QuoteCollege football's last week of the regular season resulted in another first: Alabama is No. 1 in the College Football Computer Composite, the weekly ranking formulated by the former Bowl Championship Series computers.

12. Ole Miss

16. Florida

18. LSU

23. UGa

25. Tennessee

27. MSSt

28. Arkansas

31. A&M
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jbcarol

SEC Network ‏@SECNetwork  3h3 hours ago
No. 2 in the nation... @AlabamaFTBL

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BCSKnowHow.com ‏@BCSKnowHow 13h13 hours ago

Side-by-side of the penultimate @CFBPlayoff rankings and what the #BCS would have looked like this week

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jbcarol

Michael Casagrande ‏@ByCasagrande 13h13 hours ago

Playoff committee had 'heated' debate about ranking Alabama No. 1 over Clemson. http://ow.ly/VmacA

Quote"The committee debated long and hard about the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams," Long said. "Clemson is again ranked No. 1, but it was close and indeed very close. They both have impressive bodies of work. Clemson is 6-0 against teams with winning records including two wins against teams in this week's top 10. Alabama is 8-1 against teams with winning records. While that is an impressive résumé, Alabama has not played a team in the current top 10. Clemson's undefeated record was also clearly a factor."

But it was close.

"We had a number of revotes, and there were times in the meeting I actually thought Alabama was going to be voted ahead of Clemson," Long said. "But they were not."

Alabama (11-1) will face No. 18 Florida at 3 p.m. Saturday in the SEC Championship Game.

Clemson (12-0) meets 10th ranked North Carolina in the ACC title game.

Long said there was Alabama-Clemson debate before last week's ranking, but this time it was more "heated."

"Well, we had additional pieces to the résumé," Long said. "We saw a Clemson team struggle against a South Carolina team, that same South Carolina team..."
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jbcarol

 Jon Solomon ‏@JonSolomonCBS 15h15 hours ago

Long: Committee won't try to manipulate rankings to make sure Oklahoma doesn't play in Dallas if it's a No. 3 or 4 seed.
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jbcarol

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 16h16 hours ago

If Clemson loses, ACC is out; if Alabama loses, SEC is out. If both lose, @CFBPlayoff immediately expands to 8 teams
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ESPN SEC ‏@ESPN_SEC 21h21 hours ago

Alabama, Ole Miss and how the CFP avoided true chaos http://es.pn/1Pw4Gtx

QuoteLet me start by saying Alabama is clearly or, to use College Football Playoff lingo, unequivocally one of the best four teams this season.

Now that we have that established, let's have a little fun with this whole selection process, which is jeered, cheered and smeared every Tuesday night when the committee's rankings are unveiled.

The most fascinating "What if ..." of all in a season full of them is how everything would have played out if the ball hadn't bounced just right for Arkansas back on Nov. 7 in the Hogs' thrilling 53-52 overtime win against Ole Miss. Even Arkansas coach Bret Bielema referred to the fourth-and-25 lateral play in overtime as "divine intervention." Tight end Hunter Henry gathered in a short pass and flung it backward about 30 feet as he was being tackled. The ball was tipped by an offensive lineman and scooped up on the bounce by Alex Collins, who rambled for the first down, but not before he fumbled. Teammate Dominique Reed was there to recover for the Hogs.

The whole thing is still dizzying when you watch the replay, but the Hogs went on to score a touchdown and convert the game-winning two-point try in one of the more exciting games of the season.

It was a great win for Arkansas and a crushing loss for Ole Miss.

But think about the conundrum the committee would have right now had Henry's wild lateral not bounced just right.
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jbcarol

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 18h18 hours ago

Big 12's Bob Bowlsby tells @GottliebShow: 8-team playoff "definitely more lucrative" but "puts conference championship games in jeopardy"
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jbcarol

Todd Fuhrman ‏@ToddFuhrman 16h16 hours ago

Our @SportsLine CFB projection model believes the committee has 1 team vastly overrated...and no, it's not Iowa http://www.sportsline.com/insiders/25397208/power-ratings-where-the-committee-is-wrong/ ...

1. Bama

17. Iowa
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jbcarol

Shane Moubry
‏@lsmoubry

@CFBHeather What's the scenario you see that puts oh st in the playoff?


Heather Dinich Verified account
‏@CFBHeather

Heather Dinich Retweeted Shane Moubry

. @StanfordFball AND either Bama or Clemson would have to lose is my best guess.
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jbcarol

Matt Zenitz ‏@mzenitz 21h21 hours ago

Why any Alabama semifinal game would almost definitely be in Texas http://s.al.com/2VDPkOm

QuoteThe site of each game is determined by the top seed.

The game featuring the No. 1 team will be played in the city closest geographically to that school.

Clemson enters the weekend No. 1 in the most recent Playoff rankings.

Clemson is closer to Miami than it is to Texas, so the Tigers would play in Miami if they remain No. 1.

That would leave No. 2 and No. 3 to play in Texas.

Alabama enters the weekend No. 2.

Even if the Tide jumps Clemson for No. 1, the game would still be in Texas, as Alabama is closer to Arlington than it is to Miami.

One of the only scenarios that would lead to the Tide playing in Miami would be Clemson losing and Alabama winning but No. 3 Oklahoma jumping the Tide for No. 1.

If that happened, the Sooners would play in Texas.

The Tide would be in Miami.

That's unlikely considering Oklahoma doesn't have a game this weekend...
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jbcarol

CFBPlayoff ‏@CFBPlayoff 7h7 hours ago

Back to work. #CFBPlayoff

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jbcarol

Chris Vannini ‏@ChrisVannini 6h6 hours ago

Dantonio 7-1 in his last 8 games against top-10 teams.

6-1 in his last 7 against top-5.
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jbcarol

Heather Dinich ‏@CFBHeather 41m41 minutes ago

ICYMI how Selection Day might look http://es.pn/1lFLdth

QuoteThe committee's sixth and final top four will be released Sunday at noon ET on ESPN.

While it's possible that Big 12 champ OU could cling onto that No. 3 spot, it would be very easy for the 12-member committee to justify Michigan State's leap to the No. 3 spot after beating previously undefeated Iowa. When comparing the two one-loss teams, Michigan State's résumé is more compelling, with road wins at Ohio State and Michigan, a win over Oregon and finally beating the committee's No. 4 team in Iowa.

Curated SEC Infotainment and aggregated college sports updates where it just means more on Hogville.net

jbcarol

BCSKnowHow.com
‏@BCSKnowHow

Side-by-side comparison of the final @CFBPlayoff ranking and our simulated #BCS




AP Poll was not a factor in the BCS rating in the final years.
Curated SEC Infotainment and aggregated college sports updates where it just means more on Hogville.net

jbcarol

Bruce Feldman ‏@BruceFeldmanCFB 2h2 hours ago

Big 12 now will require its FB programs to annually play at least one non-conference game vs a Power 5 team & can't play more than 1 FCS.
Curated SEC Infotainment and aggregated college sports updates where it just means more on Hogville.net

jbcarol

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 14h14 hours ago

Former SEC commish Mike Slive on should @CFBPlayoff expand: "Why is there a push (for 8 teams)? We're not the NFL, we're not the NBA"
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jbcarol

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 24m24 minutes ago

Ohio State DT Adolphus Washington, cited for solicitation, suspended for Fiesta Bowl for violating team policy
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jbcarol

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 5h5 hours ago

National title odds via @LVSuperBook: Alabama 1-1, Oklahoma 9-4, Clemson 11-2, Michigan State 7-1
Curated SEC Infotainment and aggregated college sports updates where it just means more on Hogville.net