Opponent Roster Losses

[bennyl08]

Fair warning, I'm going to ignore alcorn state and texas state in this analysis. This takes some time and while the team needs to put in the time, as a fan, I can live with not.

LA TECH: Losses: Starting qb, both rb's, starting RT and RG, both TE's, and a starting WR.

This equates to: 94% of passing attempts, 96% of yards, 96.4% of td's but only 73% of int's. 73% of rushing attempts, 71.4% of rushing yards, and 93% of rushing td's. 29.6% of receiving yards, 29% of receiving yards, and 35.7% of receiving td's. According to their game notes, they are also losing their starting center, and will be replacing 3 of their OL players. However, they have lost at least 3 OL players the past 4 seasons though by their game by game starters, he only started the first game. Their LT will be in his 3rd year at the position next season. They lose a tiny bit of their KR yardage and while they only lose 2/16 of their pun returns, that equates to 44% of yards lost and their only td.

DEFENSE: Lose starting DT and RDE, all 3 LB'ers, both cb's, and their SS.

Overall, they lose 8 out of the nine top tacklers. In total 60% of solo tackles, 62.4% of assists, 54.4% of TFL,s 54.2% of sacks, 61.5% of INTs, 76.5% of passes defended, 53.3% of qb hurries, 77.8% of fumbles recovered, 60% of forced fumbles, and 100% of the 4 blocked kicks they had. They also lose their starting punter who was very good.

What does this tell us? Offensively, they are in a similar boat that we are in. Losing their qb, top rb, and a chunk of the OL, but returning most of their receivers. However, defensively, we see that they lose almost all of their big play players. The backups accumulated some stats as you can see by only losing 60% of tackles. However, the backups did not make as many splash plays. The other hat they have on defense is that they are pretty balanced in what they lose on the DL. TFL's, sacks, qb hurries are all hovering around 50% loss. That is on the higher end to overcome, but it shows that it wasn't just one single guy their making all the noise. Whether or not one of the players they lose allowed the others guys to make plays, I do not know. Stats don't do a good job telling that story.

TCU: Starting qb and backup, two starting WR's and a backup, Starting Tailback, backup TE, Starting RG, C, both LGs, and both LT's. Also losing their starting punter and kicker.

Lose 68.6% of rushing attempts, 70.3% of yards, and 81% of rushing td's. 93.6% of passing attempts, 80% of interceptions, 95% of yards, and 92.3% of TD's. 42.3% of receptions, 48% of yards, and 56.4% of td's. On the OL, the starters all have started at least 2 full years, and the backup LT has 2 years of starts as well. Center was a 3 year starter and All Big 12 past 2 seasons.

Defense: Lose both RE's and their starting DT. Also, lose their starting FS and CB.

93 Solo tackles, 68 assists, 13 tfls, 5 sacks, 1 int, 18 pbu's, 7 qbh's, 2 ff's and 2 fr's. So, around 17% of tackles either way you slice it, 15.5% of tf's and sacks, 14.3% of int's, 31.7% of pub's, 21% of qbh's and 16.7% of fumbles forced and recovered. Not a lot lost on defense.

Like us, they return most of their defense this year, but they lose a lot of offense and even more on the OL. As the numbers bear out, they lose a lot of their impact OL players. I.e. they lose more in yards and scores than they lose in touches.

Texas A&M They've lost most of their quarterbacks due to transfers. Starting tailback is gone. Backup WR, starting center, RT, and RG will leave as well. The RT declaring early.

They lose all of their starting experience sans the bowl game at qb. They return 15.8% of passing attempts, 6.7% of int's, 12% of yards and td's. 13.2% of catches, 7% of yards and 4% of td's. 79% of rushing attempts gone, 81.7% of rushing yards, and 84.6% of rushing td's. They lose 36 starts at center, 37 at RT, and 23 starts at RG.

On defense: both starting DT's, both starting cornerbacks. That's 79 starts on the DL and and at least 51 starts in the secondary. They also lose their starting place kicker and punter.

On defense, only looking at those leaving from their two deep, 24% of solo tackles, 19.3% of assists, 15% of TFL's, 7.3% of sacks, 9% ints 27.7% pbu's, 7% qbh,s 22% ff's 14.3% fr's.

Overall, the aggies don't lose a whole lot on defense. They do lose their leading tackler, but not really their guys who cause the impact plays. On offense, they lose their running production and a lot on the OL and almost all of their qb experience. However, they return some dangerous guys at receiver.

Bama: Lose starting qb, both rb's (one declaring early and a heisman winner), 2 TE's, 2 receivers one who started, their C and RT.

That leads to 88% of passing attempts, 80% of int's, 91.3% of yards, and 95.5% of td's gone. 85% of rushing attempts gone, 90% of yards, and 94% of td's. 27.2% of catches, 24.2% yards, and 31.8% of td's. 47 career starts at the OL are gone.

Defense: all 3 starting DL players and 1 backup, 3/4 LB's and one backup, 1 starting cb and safety along with 1 backup. Also, starting PR and KR.

They lose 56.6% of KR's, 70.5% of yards and their only td's scorer, 94% of punt returns and yardage, but only 4/5 returns for td (one might have been a blocked punt? it was only 16 yards). 43.3% of solo tackles, 50% of assists, 33.3% of TFLs, 20.8% of sacks, and 28% of qbh's, 31.6% of int's, 32.5% of pbu's, 31.25% of forced fumbles and 50% of fumble recoveries and 50% of 6 blocked kicks.

So basically, they are gutted in the run game, they lose their starting qb for the 3rd year running, but they retain most of the receiving corps and OL. They lose a lot on defense in terms of people who have played, but to lose soo many starters but less than half the stats means they rotate guys a whole lot so the damage won't be felt much.

Two extra thoughts on the offense though is that having 3 guys lead your team in 3 years leads to one of three things, their qb's are simply really good leaders each and every year, they find somebody else to really be the true leader, or hopefully, their leadership and identity on offense is going to take a hit. Secondly, you may bring up how much Bama simply reloads at running back. However, Coffee was 1a to Ingrams 1b, then Ingram and Richardson, Richardson/Lacy, Lacy/Yeldon, Yeldon/Henry. This year was Henry and a bit of Drake, but both of those guys are gone now. It has been a long time since they haven't had a 1b starter returning for the team.

[DeltaBoy]

Good analysis. I expect we go into the Bama game 4-0 or 3-1 at the Worse.

[WaltonCollege]

LA Tech is a decent team don't get me wrong but this is Bielema's 4th year. If we don't have the LA Tech game in the bag by halftime things need to be looked at. More importantly on to TCU: They lose their QB, backup QB, 4 starting O Linemen, 2 backup O linemen, their top 2 WRs, their top RB, 2 starters on their D Line, two starters in their secondary and last their kicker (laugh now but given our kicking woes I guess special teams are kinda important). I wish we played TCU first and not second because a football team's biggest learning curve happens after the first game before the 2nd. Regardless I think we 'SHOULD' win. Go Hogs

[hobhog]

LA Tech is a decent team don't get me wrong but this is Bielema's 4th year. If we don't have the LA Tech game in the bag by halftime things need to be looked at. More importantly on to TCU: They lose their QB, backup QB, 4 starting O Linemen, 2 backup O linemen, their top 2 WRs, their top RB, 2 starters on their D Line, two starters in their secondary and last their kicker (laugh now but given our kicking woes I guess special teams are kinda important). I wish we played TCU first and not second because a football team's biggest learning curve happens after the first game before the 2nd. Regardless I think we 'SHOULD' win. Go Hogs

Tcu recruits well and is well coached. Hogs will probably be the underdog in that road game.

[onebadrubi]

TCU will have a few weapons and be in a spread it out wide open offense, what has shown to give us fits.  That, the way it looks right now will not be a sure win.  We will have one of the toughest schedules again next year, just like we have for what seems to be forever.

[HogimusMaximus]

Should be 3-1 before Bama rips us.

[DeltaBoy]

Should be 3-1 before Bama rips us.

I would not bet on that one this year.

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

Should be 3-1 before Bama rips us.

I'm thinking 4-1.

[welchog]

We are due a good Sept/Oct and definitely a win against Bama.   In my lifetime I have never seen such a streak even against texass.  We owe a 40 point thumping on the elephants.

[welchog]

BTW, I'm 48.

[RussVegas Hawg]

Should be 3-1 before Bama rips us.

They haven't ripped us the last 2 years, and they won't next yr either.

[code red]

We are due a good Sept/Oct and definitely a win against Bama.   In my lifetime I have never seen such a streak even against texass.  We owe a 40 point thumping on the elephants.

We may win...but that won't happen.  You wanta beat Bama.....you gotta recruit like Bama.  Spare me with the Ole Miss garbage.  Bama has to turn the ball over to get beat.  The rest of college football is mere mortals.

[scorekeeper]

We may win...but that won't happen.  You wanta beat Bama.....you gotta recruit like Bama.  Spare me with the Ole Miss garbage.  Bama has to turn the ball over to get beat.  The rest of college football is mere mortals.

I don't totally disagree since Bama did win most of their games by 10 points, but one or two plays could very well be the difference between a win and a loss and turnovers are a part of the game.

[bennyl08]

TCU and aTm added.

[songofthesword]

i honestly believe we have a better chance of beating bama than beating tcu.  the spread is and has killed us. we've done well against traditional offenses

[HogBreath]

They haven't ripped us the last 2 years, and they won't next yr either.

Maxie don't catch on real quick.

[Lake City Hog]

Benny, Thanks for the info.
Soon you need to start another thread with our roster losses.

ATM does have a pretty good answer coming in at QB. I do think that there will be a little transition time for him. A 1 year answer may be all that Sumlin is looking for!

[bennyl08]

Ole Miss: Lose starting RB, RT, C, LG, LT, backup C, and their starting two receivers.

They lose 3/3 passing from Treadwell for 134 yards and a td, but that is it in that department. They lose 32% of rushing attempts, 30.5% of yards, and 27.5% of rushing td's. 44.7% of receptions, 46% of receiving yards, and 45.7% of td's. They are losing 30 starts at rb, 51 starts at WR, and most dramatically, 135 combined starts on the OL.

Defense: 2 starting DE's, 1 backup, starting NT, starting MLB, nickle, backup mlb, and starting rover position (think of Nelson) and FS. They also lose their starting two returners.

However, their returners didn't really do very much so I won't put those numbers up. 40% of total tackles, 44% of TFLs, 31% of sacks, 66.66% of INT's, 50.7% of PBU's, 36.5% of qbh's, 37.5% of fr's, 26.7% of forced fumbles and 2/3 blocked kicks.

[Jackrabbit Hog]

BTW, I'm 48.

Mike Gundy???

[Hogs run wild]

losses on the coaching staff is important too.

[welchog]

Mike Gundy???

Knew someone would say that.  My point of course was to point to the years of pain I have endured, although I know many have more.   Hard habit to break. 

[hogfan58]

Fair warning, I'm going to ignore alcorn state and texas state in this analysis. This takes some time and while the team needs to put in the time, as a fan, I can live with not.

LA TECH: Losses: Starting qb, both rb's, starting RT and RG, both TE's, and a starting WR.

This equates to: 94% of passing attempts, 96% of yards, 96.4% of td's but only 73% of int's. 73% of rushing attempts, 71.4% of rushing yards, and 93% of rushing td's. 29.6% of receiving yards, 29% of receiving yards, and 35.7% of receiving td's. According to their game notes, they are also losing their starting center, and will be replacing 3 of their OL players. However, they have lost at least 3 OL players the past 4 seasons though by their game by game starters, he only started the first game. Their LT will be in his 3rd year at the position next season. They lose a tiny bit of their KR yardage and while they only lose 2/16 of their pun returns, that equates to 44% of yards lost and their only td.

DEFENSE: Lose starting DT and RDE, all 3 LB'ers, both cb's, and their SS.

Overall, they lose 8 out of the nine top tacklers. In total 60% of solo tackles, 62.4% of assists, 54.4% of TFL,s 54.2% of sacks, 61.5% of INTs, 76.5% of passes defended, 53.3% of qb hurries, 77.8% of fumbles recovered, 60% of forced fumbles, and 100% of the 4 blocked kicks they had. They also lose their starting punter who was very good.

What does this tell us? Offensively, they are in a similar boat that we are in. Losing their qb, top rb, and a chunk of the OL, but returning most of their receivers. However, defensively, we see that they lose almost all of their big play players. The backups accumulated some stats as you can see by only losing 60% of tackles. However, the backups did not make as many splash plays. The other hat they have on defense is that they are pretty balanced in what they lose on the DL. TFL's, sacks, qb hurries are all hovering around 50% loss. That is on the higher end to overcome, but it shows that it wasn't just one single guy their making all the noise. Whether or not one of the players they lose allowed the others guys to make plays, I do not know. Stats don't do a good job telling that story.

TCU: Starting qb and backup, two starting WR's and a backup, Starting Tailback, backup TE, Starting RG, C, both LGs, and both LT's. Also losing their starting punter and kicker.

Lose 68.6% of rushing attempts, 70.3% of yards, and 81% of rushing td's. 93.6% of passing attempts, 80% of interceptions, 95% of yards, and 92.3% of TD's. 42.3% of receptions, 48% of yards, and 56.4% of td's. On the OL, the starters all have started at least 2 full years, and the backup LT has 2 years of starts as well. Center was a 3 year starter and All Big 12 past 2 seasons.

Defense: Lose both RE's and their starting DT. Also, lose their starting FS and CB.

93 Solo tackles, 68 assists, 13 tfls, 5 sacks, 1 int, 18 pbu's, 7 qbh's, 2 ff's and 2 fr's. So, around 17% of tackles either way you slice it, 15.5% of tf's and sacks, 14.3% of int's, 31.7% of pub's, 21% of qbh's and 16.7% of fumbles forced and recovered. Not a lot lost on defense.

Like us, they return most of their defense this year, but they lose a lot of offense and even more on the OL. As the numbers bear out, they lose a lot of their impact OL players. I.e. they lose more in yards and scores than they lose in touches.

Texas A&M They've lost most of their quarterbacks due to transfers. Starting tailback is gone. Backup WR, starting center, RT, and RG will leave as well. The RT declaring early.

They lose all of their starting experience sans the bowl game at qb. They return 15.8% of passing attempts, 6.7% of int's, 12% of yards and td's. 13.2% of catches, 7% of yards and 4% of td's. 79% of rushing attempts gone, 81.7% of rushing yards, and 84.6% of rushing td's. They lose 36 starts at center, 37 at RT, and 23 starts at RG.

On defense: both starting DT's, both starting cornerbacks. That's 79 starts on the DL and and at least 51 starts in the secondary. They also lose their starting place kicker and punter.

On defense, only looking at those leaving from their two deep, 24% of solo tackles, 19.3% of assists, 15% of TFL's, 7.3% of sacks, 9% ints 27.7% pbu's, 7% qbh,s 22% ff's 14.3% fr's.

Overall, the aggies don't lose a whole lot on defense. They do lose their leading tackler, but not really their guys who cause the impact plays. On offense, they lose their running production and a lot on the OL and almost all of their qb experience. However, they return some dangerous guys at receiver.

Bama: Lose starting qb, both rb's (one declaring early and a heisman winner), 2 TE's, 2 receivers one who started, their C and RT.

That leads to 88% of passing attempts, 80% of int's, 91.3% of yards, and 95.5% of td's gone. 85% of rushing attempts gone, 90% of yards, and 94% of td's. 27.2% of catches, 24.2% yards, and 31.8% of td's. 47 career starts at the OL are gone.

Defense: all 3 starting DL players and 1 backup, 3/4 LB's and one backup, 1 starting cb and safety along with 1 backup. Also, starting PR and KR.

They lose 56.6% of KR's, 70.5% of yards and their only td's scorer, 94% of punt returns and yardage, but only 4/5 returns for td (one might have been a blocked punt? it was only 16 yards). 43.3% of solo tackles, 50% of assists, 33.3% of TFLs, 20.8% of sacks, and 28% of qbh's, 31.6% of int's, 32.5% of pbu's, 31.25% of forced fumbles and 50% of fumble recoveries and 50% of 6 blocked kicks.

So basically, they are gutted in the run game, they lose their starting qb for the 3rd year running, but they retain most of the receiving corps and OL. They lose a lot on defense in terms of people who have played, but to lose soo many starters but less than half the stats means they rotate guys a whole lot so the damage won't be felt much.

Two extra thoughts on the offense though is that having 3 guys lead your team in 3 years leads to one of three things, their qb's are simply really good leaders each and every year, they find somebody else to really be the true leader, or hopefully, their leadership and identity on offense is going to take a hit. Secondly, you may bring up how much Bama simply reloads at running back. However, Coffee was 1a to Ingrams 1b, then Ingram and Richardson, Richardson/Lacy, Lacy/Yeldon, Yeldon/Henry. This year was Henry and a bit of Drake, but both of those guys are gone now. It has been a long time since they haven't had a 1b starter returning for the team.

You do know that TCU has Kenny Hill, former A&M QB on campus and ready to go as their QB, right? He sat out this year after transferring....recall what he did against us in their 35-28 win in 2014...

21-41-1 386  4 td      6 rushes   30 yds