Sports Illustrated: Lessons learned from the 2016 college football season

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The title of this article, "Lessons Learned From The 2016 College Football Season" does point to the hope of the national media that somehow, the SEC will be displaced as the toughest conference in the country. In all fairness to S.I., they do admit that the SEC West is still the toughest place to compete in the entire country. They weren't wrong about this season and it has been true for at least the last 4 seasons in a row.

http://www.si.com/college-football/2017/02/22/college-football-2016-season-lessons-learned

So how do you fairly rank conferences and their productivity for the last 4 years? Overall W-L records? SOS? Bowl wins? Average of recruiting class rank from 2012-2016? Wins versus ranked teams? Maybe it is some of all of that but what I have done here is to break conferences down into their divisions and looked at each division's number of games vs. ranked teams (when games were played), their W-L records and their average recruiting class rank according to 24/7 Sports from 2012-2016.

In an attempt to evaluate the overall strength of each division/conference (in the case of the Big 12) I have removed the teams that have double digit wins vs. ranked teams from the averages. Though it may not be a perfect way to approach this, I do think that it may give us a better view of just how tough the overall level of competition is, aside from those that tend to achieve at high levels most every year over time.

Those removed from each conference/division for the purpose of this comparison include the following:
Team                      Vs. Ranked 2013-16               Win %                 Avg Rec Rank(2012-16)
ALA(SEC W)                     16-6                           .727                                    1
STAN(PAC N)                   10-10                          .500                                  22.2
OH St(B10 E)                   11-5                           .688                                   4.2
OKLA(B12)                       10-7                           .588                                   15
FL St(ACC A)                   10-5                           .667                                   4.6
CLEM(ACC A)                   12-7                           .632                                  13.4

So here is how the divisions/conferences lay out with the totals per division over the period of 2013-16.

Division                  Vs. Ranked 2013-16                Win %                   Avg Rec Rank(2012-16)
SEC W                           32-76                          .296                                   16
SEC E                            28-82                          .255                                  23.9

PAC S                            32-71                          .311                                  33.9
PAC N                            14-68                          .171                                  38.4

B10 W                            15-85                          .150                                  51.3
B10 E                             20-72                          .217                                  35.1

B12                              23-108                          .176                                  41.6

ACC C                            19-59                          .244                                   38.4
ACC A                             4-62                           .061                                   55.6

The more glaring instances of pretty poor play overall and yet finding their way into national rankings at times include Colorado, who over 2013-16 was 1-17 against ranked teams. Washington 2-13, Nebraska 1-11, Kansas State 0-15 and Louisville 1-9.

So the assertion that the "ACC is on the rise" may be true, but the results over the past 4 years tend to indicate that if there is a possible true competitor with the SEC West it might be the Pac 12 South, at least in terms of how the majority of their teams perform against ranked teams.

Which conference/division do you see as being most capable of challenging the SEC West for the title of the toughest place to play college football and why?

[ChicoHog]

Good breakdown Muskogee.  There is no objective way to do it but this is probably pretty close.  Another thing to consider is does it matter if the division is "Top heavy" with one or two really good teams but also one or two very poor teams?  Or it it more important that the entire division be balanced with all pretty good teams?  Sometimes when people say they are tired of the SEC winning the championship they are actually saying they are tired of Alabama winning.  Or if they say hate the Big Ten it's because they hate Ohio st or Michigan.  Two entirely different things IMO.  Anyway having these discussions is another reason why college football is great.  There are no 100% definitive answers.  Just opinions. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Good breakdown Muskogee.  There is no objective way to do it but this is probably pretty close.  Another thing to consider is does it matter if the division is "Top heavy" with one or two really good teams but also one or two very poor teams?  Or it it more important that the entire division be balanced with all pretty good teams?  Sometimes when people say they are tired of the SEC winning the championship they are actually saying they are tired of Alabama winning.  Or if they say hate the Big Ten it's because they hate Ohio st or Michigan.  Two entirely different things IMO.  Anyway having these discussions is another reason why college football is great.  There are no 100% definitive answers.  Just opinions. 

Here's another example of just that. Look at the ACC Atlantic Division. What real and consistent competition do they have within their own division? You have Florida State and Clemson that are a combined 22-12 vs. ranked teams for the past 4 seasons, but the rest of their division (5 teams mind you) combined is just 4-62 vs. ranked teams. 4-62?

In the Big Ten West it seems like it is an easier path to the CCG for someone like Wisconsin, but they are no better than Northwestern in competition vs. ranked teams over the past 4 years...both are 5-10, Iowa stands at 4-10 and the other 4 teams in that division are 1-55 vs. ranked teams over the past 4 years. One win in fifty-six games among 4 teams. That's horrible.

In comparison, the SEC West has just 1 team with less than 4 wins over the past 4 years against ranked teams. The same is true of the Pac 12 South.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Oh and I forgot to mention, take a look at the Big 12(actually 10). 6 of their teams combined have a record over the past four years against ranked teams of just 6 wins and 81 losses. Is it any wonder that the race for the Big 12 Championship (oh boy) is usually just a matter of how 4 teams perform? With Baylor's demise, Texas being way down and TCU's seeming downturn of late, it really only comes down to two teams, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, with K-State sometimes trying to play the spoiler and they may not have that opportunity in the future if Bill Snyder doesn't return.

[DeltaBoy]

Good read and until the ACC wins some more NC in football the SEC STILL THE 👑 KING.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Good read and until the ACC wins some more NC in football the SEC STILL THE 👑 KING.

It's just that while there are some very good teams in all of these conferences, they are top heavy with one or two teams that consistently play at a high level. The rest in most cases, don't provide a lot of competition. Who has two stronger divisions that just knock each other off on any given day other than the SEC?

People complain that our record isn't better than what it is, and we have certainly left some wins on the field at times over the last 3 years, but good grief, look at the competition. We would fare better than we do in the Pac North, the Big Ten West, the B12 and probably in the ACC Atlantic Division as well, but I like the SEC West even if there is little chance of getting to the SECCG more than once every 10-15 years or so.

[DeltaBoy]

It's just that while there are some very good teams in all of these conferences, they are top heavy with one or two teams that consistently play at a high level. The rest in most cases, don't provide a lot of competition. Who has two stronger divisions that just knock each other off on any given day other than the SEC?

People complain that our record isn't better than what it is, and we have certainly left some wins on the field at times over the last 3 years, but good grief, look at the competition. We would fare better than we do in the Pac North, the Big Ten West, the B12 and probably in the ACC Atlantic Division as well, but I like the SEC West even if there is little chance of getting to the SECCG more than once every 10-15 years or so.

I agree.