Florida is a 11.5 point favorite?

[checkraiser88]

Time to bet the farm on the hogs in this one

[Rome26]

Time to bet the farm on the hogs in this one

That line is surprising. I was thinking 7 or 8....might have to drop a few coins on that one myself

[phadedhawg]

wow....a bit rich but I can see it happening.

[SouthTulsaHog]

Well if you look at the Kenpom efficiency numbers Florida is 12.75 points per 100 possessions better than us. That totals 0.1275/possession. If you look at the tempo statistics, both us and UF average around 70 possessions per game. So if you multiply efficiency/possession times tempo (70 possessions) the you get roughly 8.92 points per game better than us.

That doesnt factor in home court advantage. Per Boydsbet.com home court advantage, the home court advantage for Florida is roughly 3.8 points per game. Therefore, based on pure numbers Florida would be about a 13 pt favorite.

Granted, this doesnt take into account recent form and what not. I think we have a decent change to cover the spread, but those are the types of numbers that go in point spread.

WPS!

[shown006]

Hogs have won 5 in a row as most everyone knows....they are also 5-0 last 5 ATS.....probably due to not cover.  Would expect Arkansas to be a 5-6 point favorite next Sat against Georgia.  Can afford to lose to Florida and not lost than more than one line in seeding.  Can't afford to lose two in a row, and be put back on the bubble.

[Rome26]

Well if you look at the Kenpom efficiency numbers Florida is 12.75 points per 100 possessions better than us. That totals 0.1275/possession. If you look at the tempo statistics, both us and UF average around 70 possessions per game. So if you multiply efficiency/possession times tempo (70 possessions) the you get roughly 8.92 points per game better than us.

That doesnt factor in home court advantage. Per Boydsbet.com home court advantage, the home court advantage for Florida is roughly 3.8 points per game. Therefore, based on pure numbers Florida would be about a 13 pt favorite.

Granted, this doesnt take into account recent form and what not. I think we have a decent change to cover the spread, but those are the types of numbers that go in point spread.

WPS!

This is why I think this line is way off. We have played much better since the Vandy loss.

[HawgHeadCheese]

That line is surprising. I was thinking 7 or 8....might have to drop a few coins on that one myself

How do you guys make a bet on a game? I'm trying to make bet.

[Poker_hog]

Time to bet the farm on the hogs in this one

Sucka...

[ATU HOG]

As good as I think the line for us is, is why I'm gonna shy away from this one and watch from afar.  When everyone really likes it is when they get you the most.  Most everyone loved the hogs at Auburn this past year when that line was.... (+7) I believe.

Woo Pig.  I think we can cover,  just avoiding this one.

[NuttinItUp]

How do you guys make a bet on a game? I'm trying to make bet.

Google "Sportsbooks" or "best sportsbooks" or something similar. There are a million out there. (Bovada, 5Dimes, BetOnline, etc..)

[lynbug]

I hope MA uses this crazy line stuff to motivate the team.  I think it could work.

[010HogFan]

I can see it. I think we are going to get beaten badly. I like what the team has been doing and I'm excited to watch us in the tournament, but this is the type of game we historically lose badly just as things are starting to look better.

[daBoar]

This is why I think this line is way off. We have played much better since the Vandy loss.

We haven't played MSU, KY, Missou, and FLA since then, either.

[ErieHog]

I would have put the line at 9.5 or 10,  but I can see that 11.5

[cosmodrum]

Sucka...

Yup. Never bet on your own team.

[1highhog]

I see us losing this one pretty bad.  I wouldn't mind seeing us lose one, as long as it's not to Georgia.  We actually need to lose and then get our heads straight going into Tourney time, and with this team, you never know.  They could lose the 1st game, or go on a tear and go all the way to the final game and I'd to see them have another shot at Kentucky.  As hard as I've been on wanting MA fired, which I still don't think he's the right Coach for us, I'd love for nothing better than to have him and this team win the SEC Tournament and him go into the NCAA Tourney and win a couple of games and buy him another year, because win or lose, he wasn't going anywhere anyway.  So, as I said, like it worked for our team way back when we won the National Championship, that humbling lose we had against Kentucky right before going into the NCAA Tournament is what propelled them into having a clear head and focusing on winning out.  Hope it happens that way with this team, we can afford to lose to Florida.

[lumphog]

How do you guys make a bet on a game? I'm trying to make bet.

^^^^^^^ == Undercover Officer with the FBI == ^^^^^^^

[TNhawgfan]

Florida has a top 10 defense, has only lost one game since mid January, and owns us in Gainesville. Yeah the line is fine

[Tony Perkis]

Pretty much what I expected. Might move to 11 by tip off.

[CabotHog87]

^^^^^^^ == Undercover Officer with the FBI == ^^^^^^^

Lol that's awesome

[King Kong]

Florida has a top 10 defense, has only lost one game since mid January, and owns us in Gainesville. Yeah the line is fine

People are really underestimating how good FL is

[HawgHeadCheese]

^^^^^^^ == Undercover Officer with the FBI == ^^^^^^^

Lmao naw man actually Im a elementary school teacher and a HS Football coach. I just really dont know what site to use. I tried to find some on my own but was confused how it worked.

[bigred223]

Rooting hard for us, but I could easily see it being that big of a spread.

[GoHogzzGo]

Could definitely see a back and forth game with FL pulling away late to cover. Hope that is not the case.

[RazorPiggie]

I can see Florida covering. Hogs are actually playing a good team will be interesting to see what happens.

[ErieHog]

People are really underestimating how good FL is

There is a reason they've been a Top 16 National seed.      We've won at all 12 other SEC road locations more recently than we have won at Gainesville.

[ShadowHawg]

Could definitely see a back and forth game with FL pulling away late to cover. Hope that is not the case.

I would like us if it were a back and forth contest. I think Florida needs to start hot to cover this line. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they do. We won't be sneaking up on them.

[Ham Sandwich]

I see us losing this one pretty bad.  I wouldn't mind seeing us lose one, as long as it's not to Georgia.  We actually need to lose and then get our heads straight going into Tourney time, and with this team, you never know.  They could lose the 1st game, or go on a tear and go all the way to the final game and I'd to see them have another shot at Kentucky.  As hard as I've been on wanting MA fired, which I still don't think he's the right Coach for us, I'd love for nothing better than to have him and this team win the SEC Tournament and him go into the NCAA Tourney and win a couple of games and buy him another year, because win or lose, he wasn't going anywhere anyway.  So, as I said, like it worked for our team way back when we won the National Championship, that humbling lose we had against Kentucky right before going into the NCAA Tournament is what propelled them into having a clear head and focusing on winning out.  Hope it happens that way with this team, we can afford to lose to Florida.

Good grief. He's got really good recruiting classes coming in for the next 2 years and things are clearly moving in the right direction.

But you just don't think he's the right coach for us. What a bunch of hogwash.

The guy bleeds razorback red.

[Ham Sandwich]

People are really underestimating how good FL is

They lost their center and another big man I'm pretty sure. I guess this just slips peoples minds.

[ADavisTheGOAT]

I think we lose this one by around 17 points. That's just me though.

[Hollywood870]

Gonna go ahead and blame the refs before the game starts. Touch fouls on us, we get hammered no calls. Then they tack on some fouls after the fact to make it not look as bad. Classic SEC BBall.

[pigsooie1000]

not sure why people are surprised, just think back to our game with them. they missed a bunch of open threes, but had good looks almost every possession while we couldn't get good looks with any consistency

[1highhog]

Good grief. He's got really good recruiting classes coming in for the next 2 years and things are clearly moving in the right direction.

But you just don't think he's the right coach for us. What a bunch of hogwash.

The guy bleeds razorback red.

Just because a Coach bleeds Razorback Red is no reason to keep him, to quote you: (What a bunch of Hogwash!) 

And he's got good recruiting classes coming in, okay, but he's got to be a good enough Coach to Coach "up" that talent coming in.  He hasn't shown that yet, no matter what you say.  Like I said in my earlier post, if he takes us far in the SEC Tournament, and at least two games in the NCAA Tournament, to me, he gains a year, he shouldn't get a raise, but he should at least be retained. 

But this is all moot anyway, CMA wasn't going anyway if he had went "0"fer for the whole season this year.  He's here and us fans, those who love him, like FCJ, who has said on DTS that he would stand behind him and want him as Coach if he did go winless the whole season, or me, that clearly has stated since before he was hired that he is and was not the Coach for this job, likes it or not.  He's going to be here until he retires.  We have no say in it.  This is just a place for us to vent, that's all.

[riccoar]

Unless of perimeter defense is on lockdown every trip, that 11.5 is easily attainable by Florida.  Best chance at a victory is to get Allen in foul trouble.

[cableguy]

Florida is really good. Even though they lost one of their big men, they are still longer than the Hogs. Florida is a well oil machine right now and it wouldn't be a stretch for them to make the Final 4. This game will definitely test Hogs manhood. If Arkansas keeps it within 10 that will be okay with me. MK will have to play well and at least two of our guards most have outstanding games for us to win.   

[GoHogzzGo]

I would like us if it were a back and forth contest. I think Florida needs to start hot to cover this line. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they do. We won't be sneaking up on them.

Agreed, I like our chances if we keep it close and Hannahs or Macon gets hot. Or whomever. Hope it is a good game.

[dhornjr1]

Certainly a reasonable line on the road against the 12th ranked team in the country. I could totally see an 82-70 type final score.

[Rome26]

Just because a Coach bleeds Razorback Red is no reason to keep him, to quote you: (What a bunch of Hogwash!) 

And he's got good recruiting classes coming in, okay, but he's got to be a good enough Coach to Coach "up" that talent coming in.  He hasn't shown that yet, no matter what you say.  Like I said in my earlier post, if he takes us far in the SEC Tournament, and at least two games in the NCAA Tournament, to me, he gains a year, he shouldn't get a raise, but he should at least be retained. 

But this is all moot anyway, CMA wasn't going anyway if he had went "0"fer for the whole season this year.  He's here and us fans, those who love him, like FCJ, who has said on DTS that he would stand behind him and want him as Coach if he did go winless the whole season, or me, that clearly has stated since before he was hired that he is and was not the Coach for this job, likes it or not.  He's going to be here until he retires.  We have no say in it.  This is just a place for us to vent, that's all.

The only team Mike had with talent won 27 games. What makes you think he won't win with better talent coming in?

[HawgTrough]

+500 moneyline

not looking good

[woodhog14]

They lost their center and another big man I'm pretty sure. I guess this just slips peoples minds.

They are a nightmare match up for us even though they lost 2 big men. That doesn't matter. We have troublr with teams that have very good guard play, which Florida has. I look for the Hogs to lose because it is a bad match up for us. Them losing 2 big men has not hurt them at all.

[HotlantaHog]

If I bet every time I felt pretty good about the Hogs beating the spread, I would be a lot poorer right now.

[ErieHog]

They are a nightmare match up for us even though they lost 2 big men. That doesn't matter. We have troublr with teams that have very good guard play, which Florida has. I look for the Hogs to lose because it is a bad match up for us. Them losing 2 big men has not hurt them at all.

Florida is a bad matchup;  the hope is that by having a reasonable shot at an upper hand inside, particularly on the glass, some of that  creative guard play and scoring ability can be offset.

I don't see it happening, but that's the thought.

[yraciv]

not sure why people are surprised, just think back to our game with them. they missed a bunch of open threes, but had good looks almost every possession while we couldn't get good looks with any consistency

That effort won't have any effect on this game, and I think we've gotten better in the last 2 months. I expect us to cover, but Florida is still pretty good even without Egbenu.

[riccoar]

Florida is a bad matchup;  the hope is that by having a reasonable shot at an upper hand inside, particularly on the glass, some of that  creative guard play and scoring ability can be offset.

I don't see it happening, but that's the thought.

1.  Moses and Thompson have to play like they are auditioning to leap into the lottery of the NBA Draft

and

2.  Our 3 point offense and defense has to be better than theirs.

[phadedhawg]

I like our situation going into this game.  We've done enough to meet our goals.  Tonight is house money.  No pressure. 

Worst case scenario would be a deflating loss that seems into the Georgia game.  Best case, we clinch NCAA tourney birth tonight. 

I hope we stick with 'em and take 'em to the wire come what may.  A competent loss would be a boost against a team as good as Florida at their gym.

[Pigsknuckles]

Just don't force ourselves into a game we can't play. Make our layups and free throws, get some boards, and limit turnovers. If we get some good rolls we could keep it close enough to have a chance at the end.

[jkstock04]

Time to bet the farm on the hogs in this one

Classic Hogville thread here. You are gonna come out of this looking like either  a genius or a non objective homer. 

[lefty08]

Florida in the final four?  LOL

[mckinneyhog5]

Hogs will cover..I'm gonna say
82-79

[upperdeck_hawg]

The best bets are when you think the dog has  a good chance to win straight up. I think we could pull this one out. That line is way too big. Of course Fla can cover, but I like the dog in this one to cover.