Will We Beat Auburn?

[hogcard1964]

This really isn't true this year.  It's the best Auburn defense I've seen since Tuberville left, and it's not even close.  We are 30th in the country vs the pass (199.7 yds per game).  But the biggest improvements for us have been red zone defense and 3rd down defense.  We are 11th in the nation in scoring defense at only 16 points per game.  And where we used to be unable to get off the field on 3rd downs, we are now 21st in the nation in 3rd down defense, only giving up a 31.46% conversion rate (last year we were 110th, giving up 45%).

But I do agree the key will be pass protection.  Allen is a very good QB, so giving him time to find people is dangerous.

You guys still trying to fire Malzahn?

[HyperDrive]

I suspect that Auburn will get their yards. But the difference between LSU and us is that we have a passing game that far exceeds anything that they could offer up against Auburn.

But outside of the Ole Miss game, your running game hasn't been all that great because of the inconsistency with your O-line.  Whether RWIII's breakout was a sign of your running game coming together or the fact that Ole Miss has a terrible run defense this year is still an open question.

I suspect you'll be right up there with Clemson and A&M in the passing game, so we'll have to play well up front and get pressure on Allen.  Even if we don't get a ton of sacks, we just need to hurry his decisions and disrupt timing.

Short of untimely T/O's or key injuries, I expect this to be a close game. I suspect that you are favored heavily because it is being played at your house, Auburn has had a week off to rest and prepare and Auburn's offensive strength in the rushing game, hasn't exactly been our defensive strength so far this season. We will see how this plays out.

I'm a little surprised at the betting line so far.  Not that it couldn't be a 9-10 point win, I just figured it to be more in the 5-6 point range. 

[Youngsta71701]

If we can stop the run and make them one dimensional we win the game. And it might not even be that close.

[hogpc]

I think a lot of points will be scored.  Hawgs will have a hard time stopping their run and the barners will have a hard time stopping us at all.  Our run game/OL has turned the corner - Froholdt and Whaley are both significantly better than they were, coaches are doing a great job of coaching them up as the year has come along. Sprinkle blocked much better last week too. I say we win it 31 - 30.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

But outside of the Ole Miss game, your running game hasn't been all that great because of the inconsistency with your O-line.  Whether RWIII's breakout was a sign of your running game coming together or the fact that Ole Miss has a terrible run defense this year is still an open question.

I suspect you'll be right up there with Clemson and A&M in the passing game, so we'll have to play well up front and get pressure on Allen.  Even if we don't get a ton of sacks, we just need to hurry his decisions and disrupt timing.

I'm a little surprised at the betting line so far.  Not that it couldn't be a 9-10 point win, I just figured it to be more in the 5-6 point range. 

Ole Miss was soft in run defense and we took advantage of that, but I didn't say anything about the run game when speaking of a comparison between us and LSU. But since you brought it up, LSU ran for 220 against your defense, in the absence of a solid passing game to help open holes. Out of their schedule they hadn't run for more than 200 yards on anyone except Jacksonville State (244) and Missouri (418), which of course helps make their rushing rank and average per game (#24-228) look even better.

I agree with your generalized comparison of our passing game to that of Clemson, but not with that of A&M. Their QB isn't that great in passing, but he is one of the best QB's I have seen lately who takes advantage of the opportunities that are presented to him throughout a game, particularly running (#2 rusher for A&M with over 500 yards).

I will be surprised if the margin of victory for either team is 9-10 points.

[HyperDrive]

Ole Miss was soft in run defense and we took advantage of that, but I didn't say anything about the run game when speaking of a comparison between us and LSU. But since you brought it up, LSU ran for 220 against your defense, in the absence of a solid passing game to help open holes. Out of their schedule they hadn't run for more than 200 yards on anyone except Jacksonville State (244) and Missouri (418), which of course helps make their rushing rank and average per game (#24-228) look even better.

LSU is a strong running team with the best RB in the country.  We gambled that they couldn't sustain drives just doing that and decided not to let any of their excellent WRs get open downfield for big plays.  It was very "bend but don't break" and for the most part it worked. 

I agree with your generalized comparison of our passing game to that of Clemson, but not with that of A&M. Their QB isn't that great in passing, but he is one of the best QB's I have seen lately who takes advantage of the opportunities that are presented to him throughout a game, particularly running (#2 rusher for A&M with over 500 yards).

I will be surprised if the margin of victory for either team is 9-10 points.

A&M's passing game is good because they have big time talents at the WR positions and Knight's running ability causes gaps in coverage as DBs have to decide whether he's going to tuck it and run or throw it over them.  Your passing game is good because of the QB.  The flip side is, I think A&M's offensive line is playing better than yours in run and pass blocking.

[HF#1]

You think your defense is better than LSU's?

It's getting better and better every week.

[HyperDrive]

It's getting better and better every week.

So is our offense.  But I'm not ready to declare ours better than A&M's, Bama's, Baylor's, et al just yet.

[SpeedyHog]

What is Aubbie best win this season? ULM? LSU?

[HF#1]

So is our offense.  But I'm not ready to declare ours better than A&M's, Bama's, Baylor's, et al just yet.

The most critical match up in this game will be our Offensive Line against your defensive line. If we win that battle, we will win the game. Defensively, I think we can stop you regardless of our previous performances.

[HyperDrive]

The most critical match up in this game will be our Offensive Line against your defensive line.

I think this matchup is critical no matter who has the ball.

If we win that battle, we will win the game.

Not necessarily, if our offensive line is wearing out your defensive line as well.

Defensively, I think we can stop you regardless of our previous performances.

This is a position of faith, not anything borne out in how your defense has actually played.

[HyperDrive]

What is Aubbie best win this season? ULM? LSU?

Yeah.  And congrats to you on that 3-point win over unranked TCU as well.

[SpeedyHog]

Yeah.  And congrats to you on that 3-point win over unranked TCU as well.

At least Arkansas won against a then ranked TCU at their place and at home against a ranked  Ole Miss team. When was the last time Aubbie beat a ranked team? What Cam the scam year?LOL 

[HyperDrive]

At least Arkansas won against a then ranked TCU at their place and at home against a ranked  Ole Miss team. When was the last time Aubbie beat a ranked team? What Cam the scam year?LOL

LSU is still ranked.  So I'd say...about 3 Saturdays ago.  And TCU isn't ranked for a reason.  Hanging on by their fingernails to outscore South Dakota State probably has a little to do with that.

And the two best teams you've played (currently ranked #1 and #6), you've lost by an average margin of 20 points.  The two best teams we've played (currently ranked #3 and #6), we lost by an average of 9.5.

[SpeedyHog]

LSU is still ranked.  So I'd say...about 3 Saturdays ago.  And TCU isn't ranked for a reason.  Hanging on by their fingernails to outscore South Dakota State probably has a little to do with that.

And the two best teams you've played (currently ranked #1 and #6), you've lost by an average margin of 20 points.  The two best teams we've played (currently ranked #3 and #6), we lost by an average of 9.5.

LSU wasn't ranked when You beat them. When was the last time? I honestly don't remember last time aubbie beat a ranked team.

[HyperDrive]

LSU wasn't ranked when You beat them. When was the last time? I honestly don't remember last time aubbie beat a ranked team.

First of all, yes they were.  They were 18th at the time.  But more importantly, they still are.  So as I said...the last time we beat a ranked team was three Saturdays ago.

[MJ2]

On the road
Vs Auburn
Refs are against us
Gus has his back to the wall
We have AA
Reed has come alive again
War Eagle Tigers - 27   Hogs 31  late score does the trick

[SpeedyHog]

First of all, yes they were.  They were 18th at the time.  But more importantly, they still are.  So as I said...the last time we beat a ranked team was three Saturdays ago.

Wrong.

[SpeedyHog]

They were 25th not 18th. Last time My Hogs beat a ranked team? 3 days ago. Boo Yah.

[12247]

I said last week about this time that OM was a game we might could win but I didn't believe we would.  I figured we would lose by 10 to 14 and we won by 4.  I don't expect to beat Aubbie.  Their QB was horrible early this year but the last I saw of him he was doing well.  Their D is the second best D we will have faced this season.  The BAMA D was the best but they played mentally dead against us so we didn't see their best.  If Aubbie plays as good as they can and at home getting the homer calls, they should win the game.  I hope our D can still tackle in space, stay agressive like last week, the kicking game is still together like last week and we don't try the 11 players all bunched together to punch the ball in from the 5, giving the o-line 3 layers of defensive players to try and roll back.  If we play smart and look like we have been coached this week in practice, then we got a good chance to win.

[ricepig]

I said last week about this time that OM was a game we might could win but I didn't believe we would.  I figured we would lose by 10 to 14 and we won by 4.  I don't expect to beat Aubbie.  Their QB was horrible early this year but the last I saw of him he was doing well.  Their D is the second best D we will have faced this season.  The BAMA D was the best but they played mentally dead against us so we didn't see their best.  If Aubbie plays as good as they can and at home getting the homer calls, they should win the game.  I hope our D can still tackle in space, stay agressive like last week, the kicking game is still together like last week and we don't try the 11 players all bunched together to punch the ball in from the 5, giving the o-line 3 layers of defensive players to try and roll back.  If we play smart and look like we have been coached this week in practice, then we got a good chance to win.

Everyone else good, we bad, we completely understand your agenda.

[NashvilleHog]

The ESPN FPI gives Auburn an 85% chance to win, so I don't even know why we should bother showing up to play.  Maybe we'll go over and make it respectable...

[SpeedyHog]

The ESPN FPI gives Auburn an 85% chance to win, so I don't even know why we should bother showing up to play.  Maybe we'll go over and make it respectable...

It said same thing about our chances against Ole Miss. You know what happened to Ole Miss. I give a flying freak about ESPN FPI.

[HogimusMaximus]

I figure we lose by 7, maybe 10.

[Science Fiction Greg]

I figure we lose by 7, maybe 10.

You aren't properly equipped to do any "figuring."

[PORKULATOR]

So is our offense.  But I'm not ready to declare ours better than A&M's, Bama's, Baylor's, et al just yet.

That's okay.  I ready to declare our offense head and shoulders above Poor Beagle's.

[ceegar]

not a good match up.  war eagles 34 hogs 31

[wildhogman]

not a good match up.  war eagles 34 hogs 31

no offense but after going back and reading your picks and conclusions, if I was a betting man I would bet on hogs.
I just think we have Guz's number now and without Marshal or Cam to run his offense its just not that scary.

[PorkSoda]

I don't think it will be close.  Hogs 42, war beagles 24

[kaptainkory]

Solomweenie

Salame?

https://youtu.be/FWqimMpbTyU

[HawginFL1991]

Hogs 30 Tigers 23. We still haven't played a complete game yet in all phases, this week may be the week.  :razorback:

[hogcard1964]

I am impressed by Auburn turnaround. This game scares Me a little. Malzahn is safe for another year IMHO.

He'll start feeling the heat again in a few weeks.

[hogcard1964]

On the road
Vs Auburn
Refs are against us
Gus has his back to the wall
We have AA
Reed has come alive again
War Eagle Tigers - 27   Hogs 31  late score does the trick

No

Hogs 36
Auburn 20

[colbs]

I figure we lose by 7, maybe 10.

Probably a good sign since you are rarely right.  I am going to say 3 times in the last 14 games since you always pick the Hogs to lose.

[GuvHog]

I said last week about this time that OM was a game we might could win but I didn't believe we would.  I figured we would lose by 10 to 14 and we won by 4.  I don't expect to beat Aubbie.  Their QB was horrible early this year but the last I saw of him he was doing well.  Their D is the second best D we will have faced this season.  The BAMA D was the best but they played mentally dead against us so we didn't see their best.  If Aubbie plays as good as they can and at home getting the homer calls, they should win the game.  I hope our D can still tackle in space, stay agressive like last week, the kicking game is still together like last week and we don't try the 11 players all bunched together to punch the ball in from the 5, giving the o-line 3 layers of defensive players to try and roll back.  If we play smart and look like we have been coached this week in practice, then we got a good chance to win.

I have a hard time believing Auburn's defense is a s good as A&M's defense. Truth be told, LSU even with the bad coaching they had, should have beaten Auburn. There was absolutely no excuse for that loss. I do agree that Auburn's defense is better than the Ole Miss defense but claiming they are the 2nd best defensive team the Hogs have faced this year is going too far.

[prattville pig]

Hogs WILL win!!  go hogs

[5HOG5]

Hogs win! Not buying all this auburn hype or doubters!