SEC Tourney

[lynbug]

I have not analyzed all SEC teams remaining schedules.  But does anyone think we have a chance of climbing into the top four by the end of the season?  And if so,  What team(s) might we be likely to climb over?

[YtownHog]

We have 4 very winnable games coming.  I think the picture might clear up a little then.  Right now it's so tight in the standings, but it would be tough to knock one of those top 4 out.

[razCzar]

I have not analyzed all SEC teams remaining schedules.  But does anyone think we have a chance of climbing into the top four by the end of the season?  And if so,  What team(s) might we be likely to climb over?

Got some time and like stuff like this, so I'll bite.

Based on remaining schedules of say the 11 teams at 4-6 or better, listed below is about how the final standings could look.  Only real shot of the Hogs slippping into the top four would be to go 7-1 down the stretch - which actually isn't that farfetched... considering five of our opponents have losing conference records and the two with winning records we get within the friendly confines.

PREDICTED Final SEC Standings

      2/7  2/28   Final     Remaining
SC   7-3   6-2   13-5   LSU, KY, @MO, FL, TN, @MSU, GA, @AR
KY   7-3   6-2   13-5   GA, @SC, TN, @AM, AL, @VU, @FL, LSU
LSU  8-2   4-4   12-6   @SC, AM, AL, @TN, @AR, FL, MO @KY
AM   7-3   5-3   12-6   @AL, @LSU, OM, KY, MSU, @MO, @AU, VU
FL    6-4   5-3   11-7   OM, AL, @GA,@SC, VU, @LSU, KY, @MO
AR   5-5   6-2   11-7   @MSU, @OM, AU, MO LSU, @TN, @AL, SC   
GA   6-4   4-4   10-8   @KY, @MSU, FL, @VU, @AU, OM, @SC, AL
OM   5-5   4-4    9-9   @FL, AR, @AM, @AU, MO @GA, MSU, @TN
VU   5-5   4-4     9-9   MO, @AU, @MSU, GA, @FL, KY, TN @AM
AL    4-6   3-5   7-11   AM, @FL,@LSU, MSU, @KY, AU, AR, @GA
TN   4-6   3-5   7-11   AU, @MO, @KY, LSU, @SC, AR, @VU, OM

[ErieHog]

I expect we'd have to go 7-1 down the stretch.  I don't think we'd come out ahead of tiebreakers with Florida or A&M--  6-2 probably isn't going to cut it.

This team has played its way back into the conversation- but for our postseason fate, we might be better served being 5th, getting a winnable game, then the #4 in our second tournament game.

[shown006]

Hogs current RPI is right about 93.  If they can go 6-2 and win 1 in the SEC tourney would get them to 18 wins...which might be good enough for an NIT Bid. 

[lynbug]

Hogs current RPI is right about 93.  If they can go 6-2 and win 1 in the SEC tourney would get them to 18 wins...which might be good enough for an NIT Bid.

I agree.  NIT for this team would be a respectable accomplishment.  In reference to the SEC tourney, I have forgotten....is it the top 2 or 4 that don't play until Friday.  And I agree with a previous poster.....sometimes if you don't play until Friday you meet one of those lower teams that has gotten hot down the stretch.  I'm just glad that didn't bite us last year, but we did have a much better team, although sometimes I think this year's team plays harder.

[gmarv]

getting to that fifth spot looks possible we have to get at least two on the road thou.

[wheelspigharvey]

I think we are a lock for this tournament guys.

[daBoar]

The Hogs have won one game on the road, against the worst team in the SEC.  I don't believe we've won a single game that the pundits thought we'd lose.  We've lost several games we should have or could have won. 

While each of the remaining games appears winnable, and the Hogs are improving and fun to watch (especially at home), I don't see them as having the fire power in the second group to enable a 6-2 or 7-1 run.

I feel one of the top four needs to lose 5 games to enable the Hogs a solid chance of being in the top 4.

And, even if the Hogs can win 6, I feel the team that has the best shot at moving into the top 4 is Florida.

[Dominicanhog]

Got some time and like stuff like this, so I'll bite.

Based on remaining schedules of say the 11 teams at 4-6 or better, listed below is about how the final standings could look.  Only real shot of the Hogs slippping into the top four would be to go 7-1 down the stretch - which actually isn't that farfetched... considering five of our opponents have losing conference records and the two with winning records we get within the friendly confines.

PREDICTED Final SEC Standings

      2/7  2/28   Final     Remaining
SC   7-3   6-2   13-5   LSU, KY, @MO, FL, TN, @MSU, GA, @AR
KY   7-3   6-2   13-5   GA, @SC, TN, @AM, AL, @VU, @FL, LSU
LSU  8-2   4-4   12-6   @SC, AM, AL, @TN, @AR, FL, MO @KY
AM   7-3   5-3   12-6   @AL, @LSU, OM, KY, MSU, @MO, @AU, VU
FL    6-4   5-3   11-7   OM, AL, @GA,@SC, VU, @LSU, KY, @MO
AR   5-5   6-2   11-7   @MSU, @OM, AU, MO LSU, @TN, @AL, SC   
GA   6-4   4-4   10-8   @KY, @MSU, FL, @VU, @AU, OM, @SC, AL
OM   5-5   4-4    9-9   @FL, AR, @AM, @AU, MO @GA, MSU, @TN
VU   5-5   4-4     9-9   MO, @AU, @MSU, GA, @FL, KY, TN @AM
AL    4-6   3-5   7-11   AM, @FL,@LSU, MSU, @KY, AU, AR, @GA
TN   4-6   3-5   7-11   AU, @MO, @KY, LSU, @SC, AR, @VU, OM

as 6th seed we'd play UT, LSU and Kentucky and SC in the finals..

I think USC loses as many as 4 of their remaining games, I like them to be the 3rd seed and LSU 2nd..... we'd play UT, SC, LSU before UK/AM

[gmarv]

as 6th seed we'd play UT, LSU and Kentucky and SC in the finals..

I think USC loses as many as 4 of their remaining games, I like them to be the 3rd seed and LSU 2nd..... we'd play UT, SC, LSU before UK/AM

lsu has their chance right away to prove your theory.i think, kind of hope sc whips the corndogs. getting tired of the simmons love.

[ErieHog]

as 6th seed we'd play UT, LSU and Kentucky and SC in the finals..

I think USC loses as many as 4 of their remaining games, I like them to be the 3rd seed and LSU 2nd..... we'd play UT, SC, LSU before UK/AM

as 6th seed we'd play UT, LSU and Kentucky and SC in the finals..

I think USC loses as many as 4 of their remaining games, I like them to be the 3rd seed and LSU 2nd..... we'd play UT, SC, LSU before UK/AM

SC just won the hardest game left on the balance of their schedule.   I don't think they lose more than 2 from here out, let alone 4.

[BRHogfan]

The Hogs have won one game on the road, against the worst team in the SEC.  I don't believe we've won a single game that the pundits thought we'd lose.  We've lost several games we should have or could have won. 

While each of the remaining games appears winnable, and the Hogs are improving and fun to watch (especially at home), I don't see them as having the fire power in the second group to enable a 6-2 or 7-1 run.

I feel one of the top four needs to lose 5 games to enable the Hogs a solid chance of being in the top 4.

And, even if the Hogs can win 6, I feel the team that has the best shot at moving into the top 4 is Florida.

Well, we were definitely in every road game but Texas A&M, and I'm pretty sure we were expected to lose to Texas A&M in BWA. 

The road games we've lost (LSU #1, Texas A&M #3, Florida #5, Georgia #6) are all teams with winning conference records, and in three of those, Arkansas could've just as easily gone 3-0 instead of 0-3.  It isn't out of the question to think we've got a good shot of winning 7 or 8 games down the stretch.

[BRHogfan]

For the record, Mike has not been exceptional in the SEC tournament.  We need good seeding to help us out.

2012 - 16 point loss to LSU on Thursday (before the Wednesday game was a part of the tourney)
2013 - 3 point loss to Vandy on Thursday (Vandy didn't have to play Wednesday either)
2014 - 2 point loss to USCe on Thursday (USCe played on Wednesday)
2015 - Dominating wins over Tennessee (Friday) and Georgia (Saturday) with a blowout loss to Kentucky on Sunday.

[RaisinHog]

Y couldn't we have last years team this year we would win the damn sec

[HotlantaHog]

For the record, Mike has not been exceptional in the SEC tournament.  We need good seeding to help us out.

2012 - 16 point loss to LSU on Thursday (before the Wednesday game was a part of the tourney)
2013 - 3 point loss to Vandy on Thursday (Vandy didn't have to play Wednesday either)
2014 - 2 point loss to USCe on Thursday (USCe played on Wednesday)
2015 - Dominating wins over Tennessee (Friday) and Georgia (Saturday) with a blowout loss to Kentucky on Sunday.

Not sure Mike's record those first few years means a lot. Was working with lots of pieces that didn't really fit into what he was trying to do.

Though Hogs haven't won a lot of road games this year, I have been favorably impressed that the Hogs have played pretty well outside of Bud Walton the past couple of years...

[Biggus Piggus]

Pomeroy projects Arkansas to finish 10-8 in the SEC, tied for sixth. Depending on tiebreakers, could be anywhere from sixth to eighth. That system calls the Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee and Alabama road games as very close, one-point decisions -- with the Hogs going 1-3.

Number six plays the 11 seed in the second round (Thursday). No. 11's in the neighborhood of Alabama or Tennessee.

No. 7 plays the 10 seed -- maybe Bama or Vols, could be Ole Miss.

No. 8 plays the 9 seed -- could be Vandy, Georgia, Ole Miss, even Bama/Tenn.

Winner of 6-11 plays No. 3.
Winner of 7-10 plays No. 2.
Winner of 8-9 plays No. 1.

League currently has a three-way tie for second -- aTm, UK, SC -- behind LSU.

Pomeroy projects aTm to win the league with the other three tied for second.

I know this much -- Arkansas absolutely needs to win at Starkville.

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

Pomeroy projects Arkansas to finish 10-8 in the SEC, tied for sixth. Depending on tiebreakers, could be anywhere from sixth to eighth. That system calls the Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee and Alabama road games as very close, one-point decisions -- with the Hogs going 1-3.

Number six plays the 11 seed in the second round (Thursday). No. 11's in the neighborhood of Alabama or Tennessee.

No. 7 plays the 10 seed -- maybe Bama or Vols, could be Ole Miss.

No. 8 plays the 9 seed -- could be Vandy, Georgia, Ole Miss, even Bama/Tenn.

Winner of 6-11 plays No. 3.
Winner of 7-10 plays No. 2.
Winner of 8-9 plays No. 1.

League currently has a three-way tie for second -- aTm, UK, SC -- behind LSU.

Pomeroy projects aTm to win the league with the other three tied for second.

I know this much -- Arkansas absolutely needs to win at Starkville.

Especially with Ready limited or possibly out.

[Atlhogfan1]

I still think the targets for now are Vandy, UGa and OM for 6th.  Schedule favors Hogs with the exception of having to play at OM. 

[Dominicanhog]

SC just won the hardest game left on the balance of their schedule.   I don't think they lose more than 2 from here out, let alone 4.

probably not all 4 but I was looking at LSU, KU,FL, and us... we'll see how they do down the stretch... different season..

[Iwastherein1969]

one and done

[dbhog]

Let's see.  The tourney is not being held at Bud Walton so there is no chance of winning the tournament.  Probably won't win a game since it is on the road.

[razoredge178]

one and done

Yup. They can keep the plane at the gate for this crew. Two thumbs down to this coaching staff.

[Atlhogfan1]

The positive of last night was we lost no ground in the standings to OM and UGa.  Vandy has an easy one tonight at home vs Mizzou. 

[hogginbama]

And once again we are crunching numbers in hopes of getting into the NIT.

[TexomaRazorback]

I think this team wins 2, maybe three here on out.

[MikePiazza]

If season ended today:

Wednesday, March 9
G1: Mississippi State vs. Auburn

Thursday, March 10
G2: Ole Miss vs. Alabama
G3: Florida vs. G1 winner
G4: Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas
G5: Georgia vs. Tennessee

Friday, March 11
G6: South Carolina vs. G2 winner
G7: Texas A&M vs. G3 winner
G8: Kentucky vs. G4 winner
G9: LSU vs. G5 winner

Saturday, March 12
G10: G6 vs. G7 winner
G11: G8 vs. G9 winner

Sunday, March 13
G12: Championship

So Hogs would be looking at Vanderbilt rematch, then a rematch with Kentucky on Friday if they win.

[Wild Bill Hog]

If season ended today:

Wednesday, March 9
G1: Mississippi State vs. Auburn

Thursday, March 10
G2: Ole Miss vs. Alabama
G3: Florida vs. G1 winner
G4: Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas
G5: Georgia vs. Tennessee

Friday, March 11
G6: South Carolina vs. G2 winner
G7: Texas A&M vs. G3 winner
G8: Kentucky vs. G4 winner
G9: LSU vs. G5 winner

Saturday, March 12
G10: G6 vs. G7 winner
G11: G8 vs. G9 winner

Sunday, March 13
G12: Championship

So Hogs would be looking at Vanderbilt rematch, then a rematch with Kentucky on Friday if they win.

Not very promising, but any time we play away from BWA is not promising.

[JackMcQueen]

Vanderbilt is starting to heat up. I wouldn't want to be playing them right now.

[jbcarol]

GoGamecocks.com ‏@gogamecocks  2h2 hours ago
SEC Tournament Watch http://scne.ws/KZFwCc

How the SEC tournament would stack up if it began today:

*Note: Missouri has voluntarily removed itself from the SEC tournament due to self-reported NCAA violations.

Arkansas and Tennessee are tied for 10th. The Razorbacks won the head-to-head.

First Round

March 9

Game 1 – (12) Mississippi State vs. (13) Auburn

Second Round

March 10

Game 2 – (Eight) Georgia vs. (9) Alabama

Game 3 – (5) Vanderbilt vs. Game 1 winner

Game 4 – (10) Arkansas vs. (7) Ole Miss

Game 5 – (6) Florida vs. (11) Tennessee

Third Round

March 11

Game 6 – (1) Kentucky vs. Game 2 winner

Game 7 – (4) Texas A&M vs. Game 3 winner

Game 8 – (2) South Carolina vs. Game 4 winner

Game 9 – (3) LSU vs. Game 5 winner

[HawgTrough]

the Auburn loss is huge. Things look completely different if we're sitting at 7-7 right now

[TexArkHogFan]

Our goal right now is to stay out of the bottom four and the way we are playing we'll be damn lucky to do that.

[MikePiazza]

Our goal right now is to stay out of the bottom four and the way we are playing we'll be damn lucky to do that.

It actually wouldn't be horrible to be in that 11 spot since you basically get a bye since Mizzou is ineligible.

[TexArkHogFan]

According to Doc Harper we still could be seeded anywhere from 2 through 13.

[BRHogfan]

According to Doc Harper we still could be seeded anywhere from 2 through 13.

"Technically" we are not mathematically eliminated from anything besides #1 and #14.  And even if it were possible to get to 14, we would still be 13 because of Mizzou.

If Arkansas beats Tennesseee, Bama, and USCe, we will finish with a 10-8 record which technically has more wins than USCe & TAMU (currently #2).

I went through a possible scenario, and we can technically get to #2, but we have to win out, and every team ahead of us except UGA and Alabama can only win one game, and those two teams can only win two.

[TexArkHogFan]

So, you are saying it is possible we could be the No. 2 seed  lol

[jbcarol]

http://kentuckysportsradio.com/basketball-2/if-the-sec-tournament-began-today-3

[HawgTrough]

please not a noon tipoff

[wheelspigharvey]

http://kentuckysportsradio.com/basketball-2/if-the-sec-tournament-began-today-3

If we could beat UGA and get a UK team that is looking past us, that would be tight

[HotlantaHog]

Georgia would be a good matchup. Should have won at Athens, and there is at least a mild revenge motive. Plus, there will be about 10 UGa fans in attendance in Nashville.

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

http://kentuckysportsradio.com/basketball-2/if-the-sec-tournament-began-today-3

Get me out of that 8-9 game ASAP.

We most likely are one and done in the SECT anyway but I want no part of the big blue in the SEC Tournament. Extra road game. 

[JackMcQueen]

Get me out of that 8-9 game ASAP.

Two road games coming up, we should slip down to a ten seed by the time next Saturday comes around.

[jbcarol]

GoGamecocks.com ‏@gogamecocks 7h7 hours ago

SEC Tournament Watch http://scne.ws/Kc200P 

How the SEC tournament would stack up if it began today:

*Note: Missouri has voluntarily removed itself from the SEC tournament due to self-reported NCAA violations.

First Round

March 9

Game 1 – (12) Auburn vs. (13) Mississippi State

Second Round

March 10

Game 2 – (Eight) Georgia vs. (9) Alabama

Game 3 – (5) Vanderbilt vs. Game 1 winner

Game 4 – (10) Arkansas vs. (7) Ole Miss

Game 5 – (6) Florida vs. (11) Tennessee

Third Round

March 11

Game 6 – (1) Kentucky vs. Game 2 winner

Game 7 – (4) LSU vs. Game 3 winner

Game 8 – (2) South Carolina vs. Game 4 winner

Game 9 – (3) Texas A&M vs. Game 5 winner

[jbcarol]

Pat Dooley ‏@pat_dooley 11h11 hours ago

Some odd logo placement here

[The_Iceman]

http://kentuckysportsradio.com/basketball-2/if-the-sec-tournament-began-today-3

Would much rather be the 10. Don't want to face UK.

[jbcarol]

How the SEC tournament would stack up if it began today.

*Note: Missouri has voluntarily removed itself from the SEC tournament due to self-reported NCAA violations.


First Round

March 9

Game 1 – (12) Mississippi State vs. (13) Auburn

Second Round

March 10

Game 2 – (Eight) Alabama vs. (9) Georgia

Game 3 – (5) Vanderbilt vs. Game 1 winner

Game 4 – (10) Arkansas vs. (7) Ole Miss

Game 5 – (6) Florida vs. (11) Tennessee

Third Round

March 11

Game 6 – (1) Texas A&M vs. Game 2 winner

Game 7 – (4) LSU vs. Game 3 winner

Game 8 – (2) Kentucky vs. Game 4 winner

Game 9 – (3) South Carolina vs. Game 5 winner

http://www.thestate.com/sports/college/university-of-south-carolina/david-cloninger-blog/article62972787.html

[lefty08]

Arkansas doesn't hold any tie breakers from 6th through 9th?  Damn

[jbcarol]

Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Florida and Ole Miss are tied for sixth. The Gators are a combined 5-1 against the rest and would be sixth, while Ole Miss is 3-3 and would be seventh. Alabama is 1-1 and would be eighth.

Georgia is 2-3 while Arkansas is 0-3.

David Cloninger ‏@DCTheState 10h10 hours ago

SEC men: UK, A&M 11-5.
LSU, USC, A&M 10-6.
Bama, Ark, UF, UGa, Ole 8-8.
MSU, UT 6-10.
Aub 5-11.
Mizz 3-13.

[Dominicanhog]

SC just won the hardest game left on the balance of their schedule.   I don't think they lose more than 2 from here out, let alone 4.

Hey Erie,

That call is looking a bit shaky....  :razorback:

[TNhawgfan]

Arkansas doesn't hold any tie breakers from 6th through 9th?  Damn

Two of those games - Florida and Georgia we blew. Win one of them and we're in fifth