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NFL Mock Draft

Started by bennyl08, April 21, 2017, 03:47:42 pm

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bennyl08

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000801382/article/2017-sevenround-nfl-mock-draft-undrafted-free-agents

7 round mock.

Has all 5 razorback picks occurring in the 5th round with Wise Jr at 147 to da bears, Skipper 156 to Bills, Sprinkle 161 to niners, Baker at 179 to Cardinals, and Ledbetter 180 to KC.

Then lists Ellis as the 9th top priority free agent to get following the draft.

Morgan, and Hatcher are nowhere to be found. Neither is Reed or Collins.

Walter football mocks Wise Jr to the Vikings in the 4th round at 128 and doesn't have anybody else, though it doesn't have a 7th round.

CBS mock draft is a full 7 rounds. Has Wise Jr in the 4th at 140 to the Giants, Skipper 5th at 161 to niners, Sprinkle 6th 206 to rams, and nobody else.

Especially outside of the first round, it is basically impossible to predict the exact picks. However, by comparing a lot of drafts, particularly those from people who have some connections to multiple NFL teams themselves, you can get a decent sense of what range a player is likely to be drafted and where they relatively rank. It should come as no surprise that Wise Jr, Skipper, and Sprinkle are our three best prospects. Ledbetter's performance in the combine/pro day should get him a look and IMO is our next most likely draft prospect. Specialists are luck of the draw. Breeding was every bit of Hocker's equal at his position, but Hocker was drafted and Breeding was not. Baker is one of the top 5 punters, but only one, maybe two will usually be drafted. Collins has the pro day numbers to be drafted and had very good 2014 and 2016 years as a corner. Teams could see our overall defense and overlook him though. Morgan and Hatcher are not priority receivers, IMO, but both have as good a chance at being drafted as not. Reed made a lot of headlines after the pro day which shouldn't surprise anybody here. That alone could net him a late round flier pick just from his potential. If he continued where he left off at the end of 2015, he could have been the first pick taken from our school.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

bennyl08

USA today: Sprinkle 174 to Falcons in 5th, Skipper 242 Oakland 7th.

fox sports: Sprinkle 142 Texans in 4th, Wise Jr 154 Redskins 5th, Skipper 183 Patriots 5th

bleacher report: Sprinkle 150 Jets 5th, Wise Jr 176 Jets 6th,

drafttek: Skipper 187 ravens in 6th, Sprinkle 193 cincy 6th, Wise Jr 212 GB 6th, Ledbetter 242 Oakland 7th
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

 

ChitownHawg

Seems no one can agree on who is going where. I do like the idea of Wise to Da Bears!
PonderinHog: "My mother gave me a framed cross-stitch picture that reads, "You can tell a Hog fan, but you can't tell him much.  Go Hogs!" It's a blessing and a curse."  :razorback:

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PorkSoda

Quote from: ChitownHawg on April 21, 2017, 04:06:09 pm
Seems no one can agree on who is going where. I do like the idea of Wise to Da Bears!
would be a wise pick
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Quote from: PonderinHog on August 07, 2023, 06:37:15 pmYeah, we're all here, but we ain't all there.

ChitownHawg

Quote from: PorkSoda on April 21, 2017, 04:46:43 pm
would be a wise pick

I think Wise would flourish in Fangio's aggressive D.
PonderinHog: "My mother gave me a framed cross-stitch picture that reads, "You can tell a Hog fan, but you can't tell him much.  Go Hogs!" It's a blessing and a curse."  :razorback:

Klamath River Hog: " Is your spell check made in India?"

Spikes

Question for the individuals that may know.  Are all of the players expecting to be drafted all CBB, Smiles or Bobby?

You only have one life, so you better enjoy it!

HogHomer

Quote from: Spikes on April 24, 2017, 10:38:35 am
Question for the individuals that may know.  Are all of the players expecting to be drafted all CBB, Smiles or Bobby?
Well considering some have spent almost 4 years with Bret then I'd say they are Bret's players but to actually answer your question I believe Morgan, Hollister, Ledbetter and Skipper are Coach B recruited players.

a0ashle

It's anyone's guess 5th round and beyond, really. You can see projected FAs get picked 5-7th, and projected 5th rounders go until 7th or even undrafted.

If I were a player, I would not assume I would be drafted if I didn't have a 4th round or better projection. That's just the nature of the draft.

bennyl08

Wise Jr, Jared Collins, Sprinkle, and Hatcher were all Petrino recruits.

Ellis technically committed either in the early Smiles regime or possibly still in the limbo coach-less time between the firing and the hiring.

Ledbetter, Skipper, and Reed are all unequivocally Bielema Recruits.

Morgan I'm 99.7% sure is strictly a Bielema recruit. He was committed to Ark St before us. Committed to us on Dec 3rd 2013 which I think was the day Bielema was announced.

However, do note that each of these players all spent a majority of their time here on the Hill under Bielema. While somebody like Swanson I'd still give a majority of the credit to Petrino. Hatcher and Wise Jr and so on get credit to Bielema.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

bennyl08

Quote from: a0ashle on April 24, 2017, 11:17:56 am
It's anyone's guess 5th round and beyond, really. You can see projected FAs get picked 5-7th, and projected 5th rounders go until 7th or even undrafted.

If I were a player, I would not assume I would be drafted if I didn't have a 4th round or better projection. That's just the nature of the draft.

To a degree. If I was being projected by pretty much everybody to be a 5th round pick in the week leading up to the draft, I'd feel pretty confident in being drafted in the 5th round and would be almost guaranteed to be drafted in general. In general, 6th round is when teams really start taking chances on players and you can see some guys drafted that out of like 1000 potential draft picks, this guy wasn't even on that list. Similarly, in trades, 6th/7th round is typically meh, while a 5th round is a bit more meaningful.

There are typically 2 things that will really blow up a players draft ranking earlier than the 6th round though. First and foremost, outdated rankings. Bama's Foster is a great example of that. Pre-combine, he considered pretty unanimously a top 16 pick. Post-combine, his draft stock had fallen, but still a first round pick.  Now that he's also had a pro-day, and he failed a drug test at the combine, while his on-field tests didn't produce great numbers, he's probably a 2nd rounder. Similarly, CBSsports has a pretty thorough ranking of players and it shows it is pretty up to date. However, they only really update the top level guys. Knile Davis was questionable to be drafted before the combine and was a sure mid-round pick after, but was still shown to be late round/FA.

2nd thing that can really throw a player outside of their projection is off-field issues. See OM's Tunsil. This year, Foster is a good example and Okla's rb could very well bee one too. Those are high profile ones, but Sprinkle could be hurt by that too. Good tape on the field. Good testing at the combine/pro day. But that Belk Bowl incident could slide him.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

311Hog

i guess i just don't get it.  Why do people think Trubisky should be picked No.1 ? or even ahead of Watson?  Seems crazy to me i see the mock draft has Mahomes and Trubisky ahead of the national champion Watson, the guy torched Bama TWICE, what has Trubisky and Mahomes done?  sure they have skill, but i would take Watson every day of the week and twice on sunday.

bennyl08

Quote from: 311Hog on April 24, 2017, 11:54:32 am
i guess i just don't get it.  Why do people think Trubisky should be picked No.1 ? or even ahead of Watson?  Seems crazy to me i see the mock draft has Mahomes and Trubisky ahead of the national champion Watson, the guy torched Bama TWICE, what has Trubisky and Mahomes done?  sure they have skill, but i would take Watson every day of the week and twice on sunday.

NFL is chock full of those who didn't win as many games in college doing vastly better than their collegiate superiors.

For example, check out the receivers in the NFL from the 2013 draft and what they did in the 2013 season. Amari Cooper is by far the start of the class, but is well below Hamilton who for example, recorded literally his first catch in the NFL this past season, his fourth. Cobi was top 10 in the country, and doing it against SEC defenses week in and week out. Want another example? Michael Sam wrecked the SEC as a pass rusher. Co-defensive player of the year in the SEC his final season. He didn't have the physical tools to succeed at the NFL level, ended up being a late round pick and washing out in a year or two. Competing and winning against an SEC, even Bama, means nothing to the NFL. Majority of Bama's recruiting classes don't go on to play in the NFL. Very few of Bama's starters become NFL starters. Succeeding against Bama is like beating a family in a flag football game (including wives, grandparents, kids, etc...) and then assuming that everybody in your family is better than the other family's best player.

The NFL is a totally different animal. Johnny Manziel did a heckuva lot more than Dak Prescott ever did. Especially against Bama. Which qb would you rather have? In college, there really isn't any debate, even in the SEC. Manziel would help your team more than Prescott. In the NFL, no debate as well. Prescott is hands down the better option.

Same phenomena happens in a lot of areas of life. You ever met somebody that will wipe the floor with you in checkers but whom you beat in chess? That person who will learn a new subject much faster than you at the beginning, but if you start going deeper into the field plateaus quickly? Same thing.

NFL looks for who has the physical tools to succeed at the next level. Somebody like Hurd was able to work really hard to have great technique and end up not allowing a single sack his last year here after coming as a walk-on and I think being a walk-on either his whole time here or only getting a scholly his senior year. However, he was barely even a summer camp body and was cut before fall camp much less the pre-season games.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

311Hog

April 24, 2017, 01:04:02 pm #12 Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 01:15:46 pm by 311Hog
No i agree with what you are saying, but some of the guys like Manziel who honestly thought that guy would succeed in the NFL? i sure didnt.  He was small, and his "schtick" relied almost exclusively on improvisation.

Watson is totally different.  He is as big physically if not bigger, than Trubisky. I am sure he is faster and has just as strong of an arm with more results.

Trubisky looks like a career back up to me, A Chase Daniel if you will.  Watson may also be that, but he just seems like he "might" be an above average to great QB depending on the tools around him.

All other positions you can get guys who may have not produced in college to much but blow up in the league, so it isn't impossible i am just surprised by this trio because if you stand all 3 side by side physically I would take Watson, and he has shown nothing but football IQ on the field.

as much as i hate Cam Newton, or Peyton Manning those guys are clear number one over all draft picks.  You really think Mitch Trubisky is deserving of the No. 1 over all pick?  I mean we are talking about the Browns so maybe i should just think about that lol...


 

hogsanity

Quote from: Spikes on April 24, 2017, 10:38:35 am
Question for the individuals that may know.  Are all of the players expecting to be drafted all CBB, Smiles or Bobby?



Bobby's last class was the 2012 class, so the only players left from it would be any RS Sr's the Hogs had last year. JLS never signed a class. BB signed the 2013 class.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

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a0ashle

Quote from: bennyl08 on April 24, 2017, 11:47:43 am
To a degree. If I was being projected by pretty much everybody to be a 5th round pick in the week leading up to the draft, I'd feel pretty confident in being drafted in the 5th round and would be almost guaranteed to be drafted in general. In general, 6th round is when teams really start taking chances on players and you can see some guys drafted that out of like 1000 potential draft picks, this guy wasn't even on that list. Similarly, in trades, 6th/7th round is typically meh, while a 5th round is a bit more meaningful.

There are typically 2 things that will really blow up a players draft ranking earlier than the 6th round though. First and foremost, outdated rankings. Bama's Foster is a great example of that. Pre-combine, he considered pretty unanimously a top 16 pick. Post-combine, his draft stock had fallen, but still a first round pick.  Now that he's also had a pro-day, and he failed a drug test at the combine, while his on-field tests didn't produce great numbers, he's probably a 2nd rounder. Similarly, CBSsports has a pretty thorough ranking of players and it shows it is pretty up to date. However, they only really update the top level guys. Knile Davis was questionable to be drafted before the combine and was a sure mid-round pick after, but was still shown to be late round/FA.

2nd thing that can really throw a player outside of their projection is off-field issues. See OM's Tunsil. This year, Foster is a good example and Okla's rb could very well bee one too. Those are high profile ones, but Sprinkle could be hurt by that too. Good tape on the field. Good testing at the combine/pro day. But that Belk Bowl incident could slide him.

I put that point only one round earlier then you do, but I also follow the GB Packers the closest and it may skew my evaluation. Ted Thompson starts drafting 5th rounders in the third ;)

bennyl08

Well, from what I've seen, it is basically guaranteed that the Browns take Myles with the #1 pick. Honestly didn't look to see if any of my links said otherwise since I was just looking at the hogs.

The general consensus is that there are no sure picks at qb this year. No Cam, Peyton, Luck, etc... Watson has good size and was productive in college, but his arm is demonstrably the worst of the upper group. Combine that with the offense he ran in college and his teams success is largely the reason he's in consideration.

Trubisky is a lot like a Ben Roethlesberger, Warren Moon, Blake Bortles, type. Big arm, big body, mobile. However, lot of variability of success of the guys I listed. He, iirc, has only one year to his resume. That is both good and bad. Lot of potential for absolutely massive improvement. Lots of question marks. High risk, high reward.

Mahomes is very balanced and is more Aaron Rodgers like. Mobile, solid size, quick release but an arm good enough to make all the throws. If he played for a pro style team, there'd be very few questions. However, by playing for ttu,  his biggest question is system or not.

Kizer is pretty much a clone of the average first round qbin measurables and had solid production in college.

Honestly, this class could go anywhere from the 2004 class full of greats like Rivers, Ben, and to a lesser extent Eli or 2011 with busts like Ponders, Gabbert, among others. There's not a single one in that top group I'd bet against winning multiple super bowls nor would I bet that any of them even make a pro bowl.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

311Hog

shrug. 

I looked up the height and weight of those you mention.

Trubisky is 6 foot 3 209 lbs
Ben Rothlisberger is 6 foot 5 and 245
Moon 6 foot 3 221
Watson 6 3 220

Basically everyone you mentioned is quiet a bit bigger than Trubisky and i can find no where, where it says Watson's arm is weak and Trubsiky's is strong.

I mean 2 of the guys you mentioned are hall of famers.  I just feel like there is bias towards Watson for some reason.  And i can't find anything to justify it.

bennyl08

Quote from: a0ashle on April 24, 2017, 01:47:10 pm
I put that point only one round earlier then you do, but I also follow the GB Packers the closest and it may skew my evaluation. Ted Thompson starts drafting 5th rounders in the third ;)

Haha, true.

In general, I'd say most teams put the rounds somewhere like this
1st: This will be a pro bowl starter for us
2nd/3rd: Will be a starter for us sooner rather than later.
4/5th: We want some depth at these positions/somebody to push our current starters
6th/7th: Risky picks that could pay off. High potential player with minimal production, high production player with minimal potential.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

bennyl08

Quote from: 311Hog on April 24, 2017, 02:00:11 pm
shrug. 

I looked up the height and weight of those you mention.

Trubisky is 6 foot 3 209 lbs
Ben Rothlisberger is 6 foot 5 and 245
Moon 6 foot 3 221
Watson 6 3 220

Basically everyone you mentioned is quiet a bit bigger than Trubisky and i can find no where, where it says Watson's arm is weak and Trubsiky's is strong.

I mean 2 of the guys you mentioned are hall of famers.  I just feel like there is bias towards Watson for some reason.  And i can't find anything to justify it.

Where are you getting Trubisky weighing 209? His combine weight was 222. He'll likely be in the 230's by the time the season starts.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/04/2017-nfl-draft-quarterback-rankings-scouting-reports-mitchell-trubisky-deshaun-watson-patrick-mahomes-deshone-kizer

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2017/04/24/nfl-draft-quarterback-qb-rankings-scouts-deshaun-watson-mitchell-trubisky-deshone-kizer/100817778/

http://walterfootball.com/draft2017QB.php

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/nfl-draft-quarterback-rankings-best-worst-top-12-2017-042117

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000800363/article/hot-150-gil-brandts-topranked-prospects-for-2017-nfl-draft

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2017/03/13/greg-gabriel-is-a-quarterbacks-velocity-an-indicator-of-how-good-he-will-be-in-the-nfl/a93ef5p/

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2017/QB % check out the individual assessments

Note, there is a lot of variability in how they rank the qb's in the multiple links shown. Several of the one's I posted have Watson ranked as the best qb even. However, each one suggests that Watson's arm strength isn't as much of a strength as many of the other top qb's. Mahomes apparently has arguably the top arm strength, but Trubisky is among the strongest arms in this class as well.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

311Hog

First weight/height that came up in a google search for Trubisky.  On the right side of the screen.

If he is 220 ish that still kind goes to my point that he isn't a physical" specimen to such a degree that it stands out.  He is basically generic QB 101, doesn't run to fast, isn't to big, sounds like above avg. arm and marginal results in college.

Big Ben is big, Cam is big and Fast you know those guys stand out to me as "special" talents worthy of a No. 1 over all draft pick.

And you are right it varies according to publication, i mean i wouldn't take any of this year's QB's first but that is just me. And this is a QB league so we are told.

bennyl08

Doesn't run too fast? From the combine

Trubisky: 6'2 222, 32" arm, 9.5" hands
4.67 forty, 27.5" vert, 116" broad, 6.87 3cone
304-447 68% completion, 8.4 ypa, 30td:6int (5:1 ratio which is insane)
93 rushes, 308 yards 5 tds's, 3.3 ypc, 1 reception, 8 yards.

Watson: 6'2 221, 33.125" arms, 9.25" hands,
4.66 forty, 33" vert, 118" broad, 6.92 3cone
388-579 67% completion, 7.9 ypa, 41td:17int (2.4:1 ratio)
165 rushes, 625 yards, 9 td's, 3.8 ypc

Ht/wt are virtually identical. Watson has longer arms which is good but smaller hands which is bad. Their forty times and broad jumps are almost the same. Watson has a significantly better vertical, but a significantly worse 3-cone suggest better explosion but less wiggle and tighter hips. Watson averaged 0.5 more yards per carry. Trubisky completed a slightly higher % of passes for a significant 0.5 ypa, and made much fewer mistakes. Watson was surrounded by a heckuva lot more talent and therefore didn't need to do as much as Trubisky to win. However, from the stats, it suggests that Watson pressed a lot more than Trubisky. On 61% of snaps, Watson either threw the ball or ran the ball while Trubisky did the same on 63%. However, while Watson was responsible for 2/3rds of the team's offensive td's, he was also responsible for over 2/3'rds of the teams turnovers. Trubisky was responsible for over 2/3rds of the td's and just over half the turnovers. Thus, despite having much less help around him than Watson and thus more pressure to do things himself, he took care of the ball much more than Watson did.

However, that leads to a bit of a double edged sword and part of the big debate b/w the two. If we ignore experience here, statistical production of the two is about the same as is physical testing. Really, where the two differ most in their resume's is what their teams accomplished. On the one hand, Watson had way more surrounding talent than Trubisky had. Watson won a lot more games as well. Trubisky took care of the ball a lot more than Watson did despite being asked to do more. However, you'd expect the qb with the less surrounding talent to push more and probably make more mistakes. Which leads to the question. If Watson made that many mistakes with one of the best supporting casts in the entire country, how many more mistakes will he be making in the NFL where even if he is on the best team in the NFL, the talent gap will be ridiculously smaller than he had supporting him in college. On the flip side, Trubisky took care of the ball and thus didn't press too much as a qb. How much then did he try to win games? Now, he wasn't throwing the ball away when there was pressure like BA did since he had a really good 68% completion. Further, he wasn't just dumping the ball off due to his ypc not to mention he had the most yards in the air so his yards weren't simply yac from the receiver padding his stats. Yet, where was the risky throw that would be the difference b/w getting a td and punting? I didn't watch any NC games so I can't say. However, 17 interceptions is bad in the NFL when you are playing 16+ games, much less in college.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

311Hog

4.67 is fast, but it isn't elite. D Tackles in the league run 4.6 was my point.  And i am surprised they are more similar physically from the combine.

For me Watson stands out in 1 very special way.  everyone put the big star over his head for 2 years he was the target of defenses etc. Trubisky is a 1 year player, and wasn't the focus and for sure didn't have to make the lap back through conference schedule etc. after one off season of opposing defenses game planning for you like Watson did.

If i were the Browns i would take DE 1, and then do all i could to package a trade with that 2nd 1st round pick to get high enough to get one of these 3 QB's we have been talking about.  Because you know Garrett will not be there at any pick below 2.

bennyl08

Quote from: 311Hog on April 24, 2017, 04:31:15 pm
4.67 is fast, but it isn't elite. D Tackles in the league run 4.6 was my point.  And i am surprised they are more similar physically from the combine.

For me Watson stands out in 1 very special way.  everyone put the big star over his head for 2 years he was the target of defenses etc. Trubisky is a 1 year player, and wasn't the focus and for sure didn't have to make the lap back through conference schedule etc. after one off season of opposing defenses game planning for you like Watson did.

If i were the Browns i would take DE 1, and then do all i could to package a trade with that 2nd 1st round pick to get high enough to get one of these 3 QB's we have been talking about.  Because you know Garrett will not be there at any pick below 2.

Really? Geno Atkins and Aaron Donald are routinely known as the two smallest and quickest DT's in the NFL. Atkins ran a 4.75 at the combine and Donald who is a first team all pro and PFF defensive player of the year ran a 4.68. So, I can't name a single DT in the NFL who runs a 4.60 or faster, much less plural of the word.

Heck, majority of pass rushers don't run a 4.6 forty. Literally, a 4.67 forty is faster than the average forty for any defensive position in the front 7.

http://www.nflsavant.com/combine.php

2nd paragraph I can't argue with and that is the big question with any 1 year star. However, if you are an NFL team, you have to ask how important that is. Essentially, at the college level, it's like asking whether the person played tic tac toe more than once and trying to determine how well they will do at playing Risk. It's like playing 1 race vs an opponent in Mario Kart 64 vs playing for an hour and then trying to decide who will better be able to land a rocket ship on an asteroid.

By all accounts that is exactly what they are going to do. Please, links showing that serious people are projecting Trubisky #1? Also, no. They should in way shape or form move UP from #12 to get one these qb's and in all likelihood give up a 2nd round pick in the process.

Who's going to take a QB in front of their 2nd first round pick?
2: SF, needs to draft a qb, they'd be idiots to take one in this class 2nd overall. Best option for them is to trade down so somebody can get a Jamaal Adams or Fournette or something and get more picks this year.
3. Chi: Similar position as SF. However, they traded for Glennon. Not going to be taking a qb here.
4. Jax, they have Bortles who'd they be foolish to give up on yet. Doubly so to take any of these in the top 5.
5. Titans, they have Mariota, not taking a qb.
6. Jets, they've taken Hackenberg, in a somewhat early round. They are a threat to take a qb,
7. Chargers, no. They have Rivers. He could use a backup, but you don't use a top 10 pick to reach for a backup.
8. Panthers, no.
9. Bengals, no. They even have their backup, so doubly no.
10. Bills, very doubtful, but definitely possible. Bills re-signed Tyrod Taylor. Not going to use a top 10 pick on a qb.
11. Saints: Doubtful. They are planning on signing a replacement for Brees. They are outside the top 10. If their #1 choice is on the board, it's a possibility here. However, much more likely is that they'll go qb early in the 2nd or move into the late first to nab Watson.

So, what's the damage? Jets could take a qb at #6. I wouldn't be a fan of the move, but it is well within the realm of possibility. Outside of them, Saints are the next highest threat and only if their #1 guy is on the board which would likely mean the Jets didn't draft one or were very stupid. Worst case scenario for Browns at #12 is that 2 qb's are off the board. Knowing the NFL, there will be reaches on qb's. However, there isn't much difference in terms of floors and ceilings in this year's top crop. B/w Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes, Webb, and Kizer in no particular order, you are getting a similar bag of question marks and answers. Compare that to 2012 draft with RG3 and Luck and then a major dropoff after that. This year is basically the same, but without Griffin or Luck at the top.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

311Hog

"However, there isn't much difference in terms of floors and ceilings in this year's top crop. B/w Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes, Webb, and Kizer in no particular order,"

I just don't see how you can say this.

In this group you have a 1 year starter for a decent UNC team with good measurables.

2 QB's that were once team mates in a "sonny dykes yes i build system QB's that bust in the NFL" school.

Then you have the Notre Dame QB who he himself said he should have stayed in school and isn't ready for the NFL.

Then you got Watson, 2 time NC game QB 1 time winner, has all the same measurables as Trubisky, but lots more wins and vs alot more impressive competition, and he did two years in a row in the same conference as Trubisky.  and add to that zero character or off the field issues. 

But you still feel they are all the same?  and you want to write a novel because i said that 4.67 speed isn't that much different than 4.75 speed especially when you consider one guy is probably 6 5 290 pounds compared to a QB that is 6 3 220.  Unless you are Mike Vick fast a QB's speed isn't that "big" of a selling point.

IMO Watson is the only potential franchise QB in this draft.  Trubisky may be the next Derek Carr i just dont see how you can believe they are all basically the same.

 

bennyl08

Quote from: 311Hog on April 25, 2017, 09:32:29 am
"However, there isn't much difference in terms of floors and ceilings in this year's top crop. B/w Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes, Webb, and Kizer in no particular order,"

I just don't see how you can say this.

In this group you have a 1 year starter for a decent UNC team with good measurables.

2 QB's that were once team mates in a "sonny dykes yes i build system QB's that bust in the NFL" school.

Then you have the Notre Dame QB who he himself said he should have stayed in school and isn't ready for the NFL.

Then you got Watson, 2 time NC game QB 1 time winner, has all the same measurables as Trubisky, but lots more wins and vs alot more impressive competition, and he did two years in a row in the same conference as Trubisky.  and add to that zero character or off the field issues. 

But you still feel they are all the same?  and you want to write a novel because i said that 4.67 speed isn't that much different than 4.75 speed especially when you consider one guy is probably 6 5 290 pounds compared to a QB that is 6 3 220.  Unless you are Mike Vick fast a QB's speed isn't that "big" of a selling point.

IMO Watson is the only potential franchise QB in this draft.  Trubisky may be the next Derek Carr i just dont see how you can believe they are all basically the same.

When did you say that 4.67 isn't that much different from 4.75 speed? I missed that post. You did say that DT's run in the NFL run a 4.6. Of the ~50 starting DT's in the NFL, only one of them that I could find runs sub 4.70 and is one of the best overall players in the entire NFL. The second fastest is 4.75, with the average 40 yd dash for a DT being 5.08 seconds. You were trying to diminish the athleticism of a qb who can run in the 4.6 range by comparing them to DT's and your argument fell flatter than Mr. Square. Also, that isn't anywhere close to the length of one of my "novel length" posts nor do I find that insulting at all. All I hear is "What a thoroughly presented argument good sir."

Your problem is caring about what a qb did in college. Cam Newton had only one year in college as a starter before going to the NFL. Matt Cassel had a good NFL career and he was never a regular starter in college. Yes, the lack of starting experience is a negative. However, his production as a qb was better than Watson's. The difference between his team winning 8 games and Watson's going to the natty was the other 84 players on the roster.

Tell me, what did Leinhart do in the NFL? He was a more accomplished collegiate qb than Watson. Has Sam Bradford ever lived up to the #1 pick with all of his collegiate accolades? Jamarcus Russel had several SEC championships and I think a natty under his belt. Didn't work out. QB's who have had a great amount of success in college have struggled to do much in the NFL. The only starters in the NFL that I see that have won/played for a natty in college are Cam Newton, Winston, maybe Palmer can't remember, Sam Bradford, and Mariota. Tops, thats 5/32. The other 27 and the vast majority of the backups as well, did not.

Finally, that leaves us with the system they played in. Especially in the last 5 years, there have been a lot of spread qb's taken in the earlier rounds of the draft with players like Cam and Mariota having success. What matters most is the head of the player and the arm of the player. Webb and Mahomes both easily have the arm to be all pro qb's. The question that remains is can they make the harder reads in the NFL? However, that same question applies to any pro-style qb as well. From a college perspective, yeah, there is a huge difference in responsibility for a spread quick read offense vs a pro style offense. If we are doing a scale from 1 to 10, the difficulty of responsibility for a spread is a 3-4 while a prostyle is like a 7-8. However, if we use that same scale, the NFL would basically be at a 90. So while a college prostyle qb may be doing things that are twice as tough as the spread guy, compared to how difficult it is at the professional level, that difference becomes quite small.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

311Hog

See this is what i am talking about.  I do not need to type a long post because you make my point for me.

I said 4.67 wasn't that fast, and guess what? it isn't when you have DT's and DE's in the NFL that can run "almost" as fast IE 4.75 ish.

And i have no problem with caring what players do in college because well that is ALL the film of them we have. So this brings me to your Cam and Mariota example.  Both guys ran faster then any QB we are talking about in this draft hell i think Mariota even ran a sub 4.5 THAT is fast and considering Cam's size they are physically SPECIAL, and they led their teams to amazing success at the highest level they had access to. that is the point i am making.  Of all the QB's that you are touting in this years draft ALL of them have the measurements, and results of career back ups except for Watson. He is the only one of the bunch that actually ascended to the highest level in college.  he is different than the rest.

If Cam Newton's auburn team went 8-8 he would still be drafted where he was because he was physically different then all his peers.  Mariota maybe system but, he is phyiscally gifted beyond any player in this draft and he WON big on the big stage.

Sorry but give me a guy that wins/plays for NC's AND is 6 3 + running 4.5's with all the other measurables and i am taking him over the guy who led his team to a barely .500 season and an also ran bowl game if that.

I really cant see how people believe Mahomes and Webb will even be in the league much less start.  They couldn't get anywhere at T Tech and Webb even transfered out to stat happy Cal.
And you listed other college successful qb's who busted yeah there are no guarantees.  I might even say Cam has been a bust, at some point if you don't win a super bowl as a QB you are a bust especially if you are picked in the first round or heaven forbid be picked first.

BigE_23

4th-5th round draft picks on average = 6-8 wins per year on average. It's as simple as that.

hogcard1964

Quote from: ChitownHawg on April 21, 2017, 04:06:09 pm
Seems no one can agree on who is going where. I do like the idea of Wise to Da Bears!

I think the last Razorback we picked was Rouse.

bennyl08

Quote from: 311Hog on April 25, 2017, 12:21:02 pm
See this is what i am talking about.  I do not need to type a long post because you make my point for me.

I said 4.67 wasn't that fast, and guess what? it isn't when you have DT's and DE's in the NFL that can run "almost" as fast IE 4.75 ish.

You continue to miss the point. List me 5 total DT's who can run 4.5 or faster. That's like saying a CB who runs a 4.40 isn't fast because I can point to WR's running 4.22. Sure, when I say 'receivers' really I just mean Ross and anybody with any sense would know that a 4.40 CB is going to be faster than 95% of every WR. A qb who runs a 5.0 forty is going to be faster than 50+% of every DT, much less 4.67.

QuoteAnd i have no problem with caring what players do in college because well that is ALL the film of them we have.

So, have you watched the film on guys like Mahomes, Trubisky, Webb, and Kizer? You seem to only be concerned about whether or nor they played for a national championship. Football is a team game. You put Tom Brady today on the worst P5 team in the country and they'll still be lucky to be eligible for a bowl game, much less go to the national championship.

QuoteSo this brings me to your Cam and Mariota example.  Both guys ran faster then any QB we are talking about in this draft hell i think Mariota even ran a sub 4.5 THAT is fast and considering Cam's size they are physically SPECIAL, and they led their teams to amazing success at the highest level they had access to. that is the point i am making.

If that is the point you are making, then why are you arguing with me? Pretty much every link I posted said that this is not a particularly strong qb class. I have argued that none of these players are sure fire guys. Watson is not physically special either. You put on his tape and watch the throws and decisions that he made and do the same for the other qb's, none of them should go in the first round. Lots of teams have 3rd round grades on Watson due his high tendency for turnovers, inconsistent accuracy, and often bad decision making without anything physically making him superior. If the above segment is the point you are making, then you agree with me.

That you keep bring up Watson playing for the national championship as evidence he is superior means that the above isn't the main point you are arguing.

QuoteOf all the QB's that you are touting in this years draft ALL of them have the measurements, and results of career back ups except for Watson. He is the only one of the bunch that actually ascended to the highest level in college.  he is different than the rest.

No he isn't and no they don't. There is no difference in the stats and measurables of a career backup vs a starter. That you think there is is telling. Give me a list of all the national championship winning and losing qb's in college. Guess what? Most of them weren't even career backups in the NFL. Luck was the most NFL ready qb since Peyton Manning and has been the best young qb in the NFL as well with the exception of season marred by injury. He never "ascended" in college to the national championship because it is a team effort. Prescott never played in any meaningful bowl games and look at what he's doing in the NFL. Now look at guys like Coker, McCarron, etc...

quote]If Cam Newton's auburn team went 8-8 he would still be drafted where he was because he was physically different then all his peers.  Mariota maybe system but, he is phyiscally gifted beyond any player in this draft and he WON big on the big stage.[/quote]

RG3 never won on the big stage and was very successful early on before injuries derailed his career. Same appears to be happening to Mariota as well. Also, Mariota lost BIG on the big stage. Don't know where you are getting him winning big. Russell Wilson lost on the big stage. Aaron Rodgers lost on the big stage. Brady never made it to the big stage. Peyton Manning never made a national championship. Very few big stage winners become winners in the NFL.

QuoteSorry but give me a guy that wins/plays for NC's AND is 6 3 + running 4.5's with all the other measurables and i am taking him over the guy who led his team to a barely .500 season and an also ran bowl game if that.

8-4 is barely .500 in your book? So, you don't want Watson? I mean, he "only" ran a 4.66 and was slower than Trubisky is the agility drills. He isn't 6'3 either.

For me, give me the guy who can consistently process information the fastest and most accurately who has the best arm, quickest release, and most accuracy. I don't care if he's 5'11 and runs a 5.2 forty so long as he can pass the ball well without too many turnovers or sacks. Don't care if he was division 5 on a winless team so long as he is the best and most consistent passer/defense reader with the work ethic and passion needed at the NFL.

QuoteI really cant see how people believe Mahomes and Webb will even be in the league much less start.  They couldn't get anywhere at T Tech and Webb even transfered out to stat happy Cal.
And you listed other college successful qb's who busted yeah there are no guarantees.  I might even say Cam has been a bust, at some point if you don't win a super bowl as a QB you are a bust especially if you are picked in the first round or heaven forbid be picked first.

Look up the college resume's of the qb's drafted before. Look up the college resume's of the players currently in the league. Then, you will really be able to see how people can believe it. That you might even say Cam has been a bust is absolutely foolish. That you can't see how people might thing Mahomes or Webb could be in the league much less start shows that you pay zero attention to the NFL or if you do, you have zero knowledge about the history of any of the players.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse

311Hog

Yeah i m not going to read all that. 

1. RG3 won 10 games + so did Mariota, also i never said Cam was a bust i said some may think that especially if he never wins the super bowl.  And Dak, again we got one year of results, on a team that is basically perfect in terms of supporting cast.  Pretty sure whom ever gets lucky enough to be drafted by Cleveland isn't going to have even half the success Dak had.
2. Watson probably won more games then Kizer, Webb, Mahomes and Trubisky combined.
3. We played Webb and Mahomes so yeah i saw them in person.  Unimpressed.
4. Im only arguing with you because you keep saying that Kizer, Webb, Mahomes, and Trubisky are "basically the same" as Watson when in fact there aren't.  None of them were Heisman finalists, None of them are National Champions, hell none of them won even 10 games in their career.  Sure they are all about the same height, weight, speed and what ever other "drill" you got from the combine.

Thanks for all the links and analysis though has been informative in certain aspects.

bennyl08

Quote from: 311Hog on April 25, 2017, 01:25:20 pm
Yeah i m not going to read all that. 

That make you proud?

Quote1. RG3 won 10 games + so did Mariota, also i never said Cam was a bust i said some may think that especially if he never wins the super bowl.  And Dak, again we got one year of results, on a team that is basically perfect in terms of supporting cast.  Pretty sure whom ever gets lucky enough to be drafted by Cleveland isn't going to have even half the success Dak had.

You literally said "I might even say Cam is a bust...". I never said that you do think he is a bust, but don't try to pass it off on others. Claim your words.

Funny that you dismiss Dak's year because he had strong supporting cast but you don't do the same for Watson.

Quote2. Watson probably won more games then Kizer, Webb, Mahomes and Trubisky combined.

Watson, Kizer, Webb, Mahomes, and Trubisky won as many college football games combined as I have, and that number is zero. Clemson won a lot of football games. Perhaps more so than ND, TTU, Cal, and NC, but definitely not more than them combined. Further, Clemson probably had more 5* players than all the other teams combined. I.e. he had a basically perfect team in terms of supporting cast while those other quarterbacks were having to carry their respective teams on their backs.

Quote3. We played Webb and Mahomes so yeah i saw them in person.  Unimpressed.

You saw them as freshmen. Also, Mahomes didn't play vs us at all. Webb, as a freshmen, passed for 252 yards, 3 td's, and 2 int's against our 2014 defense. Webb was able to lead his team as a freshmen for more points than MSU, LSU, OM, and Mizzou combined, which includes the likes of Dak Prescott among others.

How did Tyler Wilson look at qb as a RsFr as opposed to his Junior year? BA?

Quote4. Im only arguing with you because you keep saying that Kizer, Webb, Mahomes, and Trubisky are "basically the same" as Watson when in fact there aren't.  None of them were Heisman finalists, None of them are National Champions, hell none of them won even 10 games in their career.  Sure they are all about the same height, weight, speed and what ever other "drill" you got from the combine.

Again, Watson wasn't the only player out on the field. Heisman is all about being the best player on the best team.

Please, show me the long list of national champion winning/playing qb's in college and how successful they are in the NFL.
Quote from: PorkSoda on May 05, 2016, 09:24:05 pm
damn I thought it was only a color, didn't realize it was named after a liqueur. leave it to benny to make me research the history of chartreuse