Texas A&M matchup thoughts

[Biggus Piggus]

Would like to start the discussion of Arkansas's 2015 SEC opener against Texas A&M at Jerry World.

They should be better at QB than they were when they beat us in OT last season. Kyle Allen is pretty solid. As a freshman, completed 61%, 12 TDs / 6 INTs with only four starts. He beat Auburn on the road. Not bad. Allen has to hold off 5-star recruit Kyler Murray, son of Kevin. If you remember Kevin, you are probably my age.

A&M has enviable talent at the WR positions. Those guys will be hard to stop. At running back they still have Tra Carson, Brandon Williams and James White, plus a renewed commitment to running well.

Kevin Sumlin shook up his coaching staff, adding John Chavis as DC and Dave Christensen to coach OL.

In case you don't recall, Chavis was DC at Tennessee from 1995-2008 then at LSU from 2009-14. Does Chavis's arrival automatically change anything? Hard to tell. Chavis really knows what he's doing with the front seven of a defense. The Aggies have talent on the line led by Myles Garrett, but the linebackers are not up to his standards. The secondary has to replace three starters and adopt a style change with Chavis's scheme.

My biggest questions are

1. How much progress can Chavis make with the defense?
2. How good is the offensive line?

The Aggies are counting on two redshirts from juco to start. They also do not know whether they have a true left tackle. Two true freshmen are in the Oline two-deep. Throw in a new position coach. Not sure what they have.

Nevertheless, I look at this team, and seems to me the Hogs will get a tougher game out of the Aggies than they face from Tennessee, Missouri and Mississippi State.

[hoghiker]

We really should have beat Tamu last year. That was a tough lost. It will get harder not easier to beat them in my opinion.

[Biggus Piggus]

We really should have beat Tamu last year. That was a tough lost. It will get harder not easier to beat them in my opinion.

Like last season, Arkansas probably needs to score more than 28 to win. This time, I like the Hogs' chances of doing that.

[HF#1]

I'm of the opinion that A&M will not be strong enough on defense.  We will keep their offense off the field. Our running game and new air attack will be too much.  I think we will win this game by more than people think we should. 

[daBoar]

Playing A&M early may be better than playing them later. Opposite the way we dtarted last year with Aubie, I believe the Hogs will be in fine form as the season starts.

I love beating the Aggies.

[MJ2]

The key for the Hogs this year vs TAMU will be to NOT let the Aggies jump out ahead by 21 or so.   Keep it close, and then win it by 7 late in the game.   Victories are precious in the SEC.

[GolfnHog]

The key for the Hogs this year vs TAMU will be to NOT let the Aggies jump out ahead by 21 or so.   Keep it close, and then win it by 7 late in the game.   Victories are precious in the SEC.

Though I agree w/ your sentiment why did I read that last sentence with the sound of HDN's voice going through my head? Damn!

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

We whipped aTm up and down the field for the majority of this game.

We couldn't close them out because:
1) Jim Cheney's goofy playcalling in the 4th Quarter. Too many called passes.
2) Cheap penalties that cost Arkansas two TDs. One would have made it 35-14. Game over.
3) Bad FG kicking. Couldnt even come close on a 44 yarder that would have won it.
4) Allen's fumbled snap on the last drive that set us behind the sticks when we were gashing aTm in the run game.

aTm has Chavis and a better QB but I think we take it to them this year regardless. Big time revenge game here.

[HogWall Jackson]

Like last season, Arkansas probably needs to score more than 28 to win. This time, I like the Hogs' chances of doing that.

Biggus, you whiffed on the main change at A&M brought by Chavis. You did elude to the Front 7, well that group will play much better together than in the past and they will be much more Physical to boot! Unless I missed something LSU's Defense under Chavis had great secondary's. I see their whole defense being improved. You hit it on the head, they will score some points too, but they won't be good enough to beat Arkansas @ Arlington. We win by 9 or 10 in a hard fought game.

[gmarv]

We whipped aTm up and down the field for the majority of this game.

We couldn't close them out because:
1) Jim Cheney's goofy playcalling in the 4th Quarter. Too many called passes.
2) Cheap penalties that cost Arkansas two TDs. One would have made it 35-14. Game over.
3) Bad FG kicking. Couldnt even come close on a 44 yarder that would have won it.
4) Allen's fumbled snap on the last drive that set us behind the sticks when we were gashing aTm in the run game.

aTm has Chavis and a better QB but I think we take it to them this year regardless. Big time revenge game here.

I think you got it about right,we play them just a little later in the year last year,they don,t get back in the game.we win this time going away.cbb brags about taking 3 knees at the end.

[Hawgzinbowlz]

...The Aggies are counting on two redshirts from juco to start. They also do not know whether they have a true left tackle. Two true freshmen are in the Oline two-deep. Throw in a new position coach. Not sure what they have.

Nevertheless, I look at this team, and seems to me the Hogs will get a tougher game out of the Aggies than they face from Tennessee, Missouri and Mississippi State.

I think our D-Line depth will overmatch A&M in the second half.

I agree on A&M being a tougher out than Missouri and Mississippi State. The crowd at Knoxville will be tough and that game may be as tough as Dallas.

I just got four tickets for the wife, son and his fiancée to see 'Jerry's World' September 26...and I expect us to have a pleasant drive back to The Ozarks.

This would be a good subject the week before we travel to Dallas, and after our OOC games.

" GO HOGS "

[JIHawg]

I'm just not sold on the Aggie coaching staff.  I think we win going away by outcoaching them.

[Lake City Hog]

Let's look at their season and see if that helps just a bit. The 2 games that really stand out to me are the Arkansas game and the Auburn game. Beating USCe in game 1 wasn't so much of a surprise, except maybe the margin. That could be just one of those 1st game anomalies.


   at South Carolina   W   28-52   
   vs Lamar              W   73-3   
   vs Rice                 W   38-10   
   at SMU                   W   6-58   
   vs Arkansas          W   35-28   
   at Mississippi State   L   31-48   
   vs Ole Miss            L   35-20   
   at Alabama           L   0-59   
   vs ULM                 W   21-16   
   at Auburn             W   38-41   
   vs Missouri            L   34-27   
   vs LSU                  L   23-17   
   at West Virginia     W   37-45

We gave them our game, simply no other way to say it. Instead of scoring the TD that breaks their back and turns the game into rout we commit a dumb penalty away from the play and give them hope. We were the better team on the field that day, period.
To say Kyle Allen is better than our Allen may be true, but it may not be true. Want to talk about "System Quarterbacks"?? QB's from Houston, Tulsa, Texas A&M and Texas Tech throw up HUGE numbers in college and win some games, but are they really good quarterbacks?
They won 3 conference games! The amazing thing is that 2 of the 3 were on the road!   

Chavious will make the defense better, IF Sumlin will allow it and the players buy in. Will he make them that much better in year 1??? Losing all 3 starters at Linebacker can't be good. Losing your starting LT and LG will create a hole.

This is a very winnable game! Run the ball, the same way that we ran the ball on Chavious and LSU last year and throw in a few well timed passes and we will put some points on the board. Play solid defense and make them go the long way and we can maybe help them to make a few mistakes.

[GoHogs1091]

A&M probably will have the 2nd best Wide Receiver Corps in the nation (2nd only to Clemson).  If Kyle Allen has improved much from last season, then our Secondary will have a tough task.

[bphi11ips]

Aggies = bug

Hogs = windshield

[Arkansas Fan]

Chavis will make A&M's defense a lot better, no matter who they have on the field.

[Hog N Bama]

(1) While Kyle Allen is a good QB, BA has experience and is smarter IMO. Pressure on Kyle Allen will be relentless.
(2) I also think Rob Smith is much further along with defense.
(3) Physicality and TOP will be a huge factor in favor of the Hogs.

[Theolesnort]

Like last season, Arkansas probably needs to score more than 28 to win. This time, I like the Hogs' chances of doing that.

Maybe and yeah probably but then I am looking forward to a Rob Smith defense being tested by one of these new fangled offenses, plus the ball control, keeping the time of possession away from A&M a bunch, just might also cut down their scoring quite a bit. It will be interesting to see. My guess is the Chavis will not have near as much to work with at A&M as he had a LSU due to the emphasis put on recruiting offensive players by Sumlin. At the end of the year where will this defense in allowing points per game be? Stay tuned.

[HogWildBison2011]

I don't really hold any grudges but there is a certain OL on Texas A&M's roster that should be starting at LG that I hope we absolutely embarrass. I do think we get them this year. 65 days & 7 hours!  :razorback:

[bigred223]

We gave them a gift last year.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Texas A&M relied heavily on non-RZ points last year to win games. An average of 14.8 per game, the highest in the SEC.

If our Pass Defense can avoid momentary lapses in focus/coverage that we saw at times last season and we can prevent some of this, we will provide ourselves with a better opportunity to win this game.

On the other hand, A&M also gave up more non-RZ points last season than any other school in the SEC with 12.5 per game. I'm sure that this will be a major focus of Chavis with this defense.

[Jek Tono Porkins]

I think these marriages of hard-nosed DC's with hurry-up/spread head coaches isn't going to mesh too well. The best defenses don't have quickly-scoring offenses and there's a reason for that. It's so the defense can rest and make adjustments while the offense is chewing up clock and limiting the other team's possessions.
So what happens when, for example, Chavis' defense is gassed after a long drive by the opposing offense and then A&M's offense scores in a minute?
The argument can be made that the DC's job will be easier because they won't have to do as much to win the game, but I think that's sort of like saying "our offense will take the best from bielema's run game and the best from chaney's pass game." Sounds great in theory but to get two people with fundamentally different ideas on how to play the game to be on the same page, particularly in a crunch-time situation, is a tall order.

[Biggus Piggus]

I think these marriages of hard-nosed DC's with hurry-up/spread head coaches isn't going to mesh too well. The best defenses don't have quickly-scoring offenses and there's a reason for that. It's so the defense can rest and make adjustments while the offense is chewing up clock and limiting the other team's possessions.
So what happens when, for example, Chavis' defense is gassed after a long drive by the opposing offense and then A&M's offense scores in a minute?
The argument can be made that the DC's job will be easier because they won't have to do as much to win the game, but I think that's sort of like saying "our offense will take the best from bielema's run game and the best from chaney's pass game." Sounds great in theory but to get two people with fundamentally different ideas on how to play the game to be on the same page, particularly in a crunch-time situation, is a tall order.

Very good insights here. I was thinking about what it will be like for Chavis to prepare his defense, practicing against the A&M offense. No way are they going to be able to get in enough run-D work. The Aggies might have an effective running game, but the practice time splits will influence a lot. If Chavis wants to focus on run D, he will have to do a lot of it against the scout team.

[Biggus Piggus]

(1) While Kyle Allen is a good QB, BA has experience and is smarter IMO. Pressure on Kyle Allen will be relentless.
(2) I also think Rob Smith is much further along with defense.
(3) Physicality and TOP will be a huge factor in favor of the Hogs.

Kyle Allen went to Auburn and won last year, but Auburn didn't have a pass rush to speak of.

[ChitownHawg]

Very good insights here. I was thinking about what it will be like for Chavis to prepare his defense, practicing against the A&M offense. No way are they going to be able to get in enough run-D work. The Aggies might have an effective running game, but the practice time splits will influence a lot. If Chavis wants to focus on run D, he will have to do a lot of it against the scout team.

CBB said something similar. With all of the spread offenses our style makes it very hard to prepare for. When you are use to playing finesse teams and then come against a team who wants a street fight can be troublesome.

[wholehog92]

It's one of the more interesting games on our schedule in my opinion.  I think they will be able to somewhat neutralize our D line advantage with the spread quick game and try to get our DBs to take some chances. 

I think if we can stay disciplined and make them drive the length of the field and avoid the big plays, they will put their self behind down and distance with penalties or broken plays.

The big deal will be can we get TDs in the red zone.  We cannot have 3 and outs.  Basically the same as a turnover to an offense like that.  We have to drive the football to where we can force them to go the length of the field every possession.  Chavis is one of the best in the business at getting 3 and outs from his defenses.  His game film prep has to be off the charts or he just has a knack for calling the right plays.  Either way he is one of the best I've seen at it.

I think we are better in the trenches.  A and M is better at the skill positions short of RB.  They are deeper at RB IMO, but we have a better top, I'm calling it a draw pre-season.  The real matchup is LB/DL vs RBs.  I think we are better off in the matchup.  As noted, our DL is better and the RBs are a draw.  I think that means A and M will focus on the Wideouts vs our secondary.  I think they have an advantage there talent for talent.  I think we have a bit of an advantage with experience.  Utilizing your experience takes discipline.  We have the advantage with our Oline vs their Dline without question.  They will likely bring safeties on run blitzes daring us to get out of our offense and throw it deep.  They have talent in the secondary, it just hasn't been coached well in the past.  They probably think they can get away with this.  Our play action game has to be money.  Reed will need to be a factor in this game.  BA will need to be reliable. 

The game could go either way and the interesting thing is a lot will depend on coaching and discipline.  Neither team can afford to get behind the chains on offense because it takes away their advantage and gives the advantage to the defense for both teams.  If either team gets cute with play calling on first down or commits penalties, they will basically give up that possession. 

First down on defense is interestingly the best time to take a risk in the game.  Both teams will likely get their 10 if they win the first down.  If you lose 1st down, you are really trying to prevent the big play on 2nd and 3rd and hope they make a mistake. 

I like our chances against the aggies any time they have to make fewer mistakes than we do.  It is a game where unfortunate breaks could change the game though.

[mizzouman]

A&M will completely different on offense with a new OC. They will run up some serious points this year. Should be explosive.

[Biggus Piggus]

Biggus, you whiffed on the main change at A&M brought by Chavis. You did elude to the Front 7, well that group will play much better together than in the past and they will be much more Physical to boot! Unless I missed something LSU's Defense under Chavis had great secondary's. I see their whole defense being improved. You hit it on the head, they will score some points too, but they won't be good enough to beat Arkansas @ Arlington. We win by 9 or 10 in a hard fought game.

Well I am glad I have you to help me understand what is going on with the Texas Aggies. LSU had great secondary talent -- especially that talent recruited before Chavis. He came in when, 2009? Patrick Peterson was in the 2008 class. Morris Claiborne in 2009 (Chavis didn't influence recruiting until the 2010 class). He was there when they got Tyrann Mathieu.

But to me Chavis benefited from the tradition and talent flow already established in the LSU secondary. He has fielded well-balanced defenses, but I see his coaching specialization being in the front seven. That is where his coaching makes the difference. A&M has the talent on the line to do what Chavis wants. Their linebacker talent level is not in the same ballpark.

[Biggus Piggus]

A&M will completely different on offense with a new OC. They will run up some serious points this year. Should be explosive.

A&M does not have a new offensive coordinator. Where do you get that? Kevin Sumlin is the offensive coordinator and always will be.

[Hoggish1]

This will be a frustrating year for Chavis—the type he's not used to.  TAMU's O will be off the field too much for his liking...

[mizzouman]

A&M does not have a new offensive coordinator. Where do you get that? Kevin Sumlin is the offensive coordinator and always will be.

OK, technically the OL and run game coordinator but I know why Christensen is there.

[Seebs]

You can have a great DC but how do you plan for the two/three TE formations that only Arkansas will give you? I honestly don;t know if TAMU will have more than a week to look at our scheme - everything else is so similar now  (spread) and we are the one off.
How to you prepare the D-Line used to attacking pass Blocking to now know they will have run blocking bulldozers knocking the snots out of you for four quarters - with a FB blowing you up as well.

Chavis is making their defense more complicated I imagine as opposed to our DC making life easier.

MOre complicated and early in the season will  lead to some big plays - espcially from our new fast WRs that will do a stop and go while the CBs bite on yet another soul crushing run play.

Sorry this was all over the place.

[Biggus Piggus]

This will be a frustrating year for Chavis—the type he's not used to.  TAMU's O will be off the field too much for his liking...

This is a similar deal as you see at Auburn.

Average offense time of possession vs. defensive pts allowed

2010 - 29:18, 24.1
2011 - 27:58, 28.9
2012 - 29:37, 28.3
2013 - 30:22, 24.7
2014 - 29:53, 26.7

These comparisons are very crude with a lot of the subtleties lost because of differences in schedule strength. Auburn down the stretch last year gave up 38 to MSU, 35 to South Carolina, 31 to Ole Miss, 41 to TAM, 34 to Georgia, 55 to Alabama, and 34 to Wisconsin.

In general, Auburn isn't going to control the football and rest the defense. Anybody who expects Gus Malzahn to suddenly field a great defense solely because he hired Muschamp is optimistic.

Maybe Malzahn can change his formula, but through his career his goal has been to score as quickly as possible on every possession.

[Biggus Piggus]

OK, technically the OL and run game coordinator but I know why Christensen is there.

Christensen is there to improve the offensive line coaching and effectiveness of the running game. It will be interesting to see how Sumlin incorporates pieces, anything, from all the offensive schemes that Christensen knows. Might be a genius move, might be a cluster.

Obviously, Christensen is overqualified for his current job. Asking a bigtime-quality coordinator to be a glorified Oline coach is different. It's only possible because A&M can throw around cash + Christensen was underemployed due to his crash-and-burn as head coach of Wyoming.

[Hoggish1]

Maybe Malzahn can change his formula, but through his career his goal has been to score as quickly as possible on every possession.

A tiger can't change his stripes (Malzahn) and an Aggie can't quit him (Sumlin). 

Chavis = good at TN and LSU where the HC believed in ball control with the running game.  Muschamp = good at Auburn under Tubby who wanted to run the ball to control the game.

@ Albarn and TAMU , where the Os scores too fast, DCs get frustrated and their effectiveness is drastically reduced (Muschamp & Chavis).

[mizzouman]

Christensen is there to improve the offensive line coaching and effectiveness of the running game. It will be interesting to see how Sumlin incorporates pieces, anything, from all the offensive schemes that Christensen knows. Might be a genius move, might be a cluster.

Obviously, Christensen is overqualified for his current job. Asking a bigtime-quality coordinator to be a glorified Oline coach is different. It's only possible because A&M can throw around cash + Christensen was underemployed due to his crash-and-burn as head coach of Wyoming.

DC will have a say in the offensive scheme. That's why he's there. I would not be surprised if he starts calling plays. If so, they should be explosive.

[MJ2]

Though I agree w/ your sentiment why did I read that last sentence with the sound of HDN's voice going through my head? Damn!

After the JLS season and the CBB 3-9 year, it just sounded right.  Sorry.

[Biggus Piggus]

DC will have a say in the offensive scheme. That's why he's there. I would not be surprised if he starts calling plays. If so, they should be explosive.

Oh you got to be kidding. You really believe Sumlin is ready to give up control of the offense? If so, you are not paying attention to the Aggies even a little.

[BearsBisonsBoars]

We really should have beat Tamu last year. That was a tough lost. It will get harder not easier to beat them in my opinion.

Nah.

Sumlin is Chizik 2.0. He's a mediocre HC coach who was elevated by a transcendent (in college, at least) QB.

He's a good offensive mind, make no mistake. But there's an X factor that you need to be the head man, and I just don't see it in him the way I see it in coaches like Jones, Sabin or CBB.

My prediction - He'll disappoint again this year, and then again the next and be asked to leave. After that, A&M will have a Tennessee-esque period of bad coaching changes and will wallow around in the bottom of the West for a while.

[mizzouman]

Oh you got to be kidding. You really believe Sumlin is ready to give up control of the offense? If so, you are not paying attention to the Aggies even a little.

It's time and the time is now.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

It's time and the time is now.

I can't see any way possible that Sumlin is removed from the offensive equation. It is, what he does. He may be toying with some changes that depart from his primary philosophy, but we saw how that worked out between Bielema and Chaney. In Sumlin's case, why try to fix something that doesn't seem to be broken especially when you are recruiting well to that side of the ball?

[bphi11ips]

Chavis will be so worried about Henry getting behind his safeties that Hatcher will have a field day underneath. 

[Aggie96]

You can have a great DC but how do you plan for the two/three TE formations that only Arkansas will give you? I honestly don;t know if TAMU will have more than a week to look at our scheme - everything else is so similar now  (spread) and we are the one off.
How to you prepare the D-Line used to attacking pass Blocking to now know they will have run blocking bulldozers knocking the snots out of you for four quarters - with a FB blowing you up as well.

Chavis is making their defense more complicated I imagine as opposed to our DC making life easier.

MOre complicated and early in the season will  lead to some big plays - espcially from our new fast WRs that will do a stop and go while the CBs bite on yet another soul crushing run play.

Sorry this was all over the place.

Sorry, but I have to call you out here, You obviously know nothing about Chavis or what is going on with our Defense. Chief has dramatically simplified our schemes. The players have all commented on how simple the scheme is now and that they used to have to do the equivalent of football calculus on the every play to determine where they needed to be and now it is more of a "just beat the man in front of you"

[mizzouman]

I can't see any way possible that Sumlin is removed from the offensive equation. It is, what he does. He may be toying with some changes that depart from his primary philosophy, but we saw how that worked out between Bielema and Chaney. In Sumlin's case, why try to fix something that doesn't seem to be broken especially when you are r
ecruiting well to that side of the ball?

DC did not go go A&M to coach the OL and running game. In fact he doesn't want to. It's just a title. DC is an OC and will have a lot to say in the scheme even if it's not made public. They should be more explosive.

[Hawgzinbowlz]

As long as he is the HC I don't believe that Sumlin will ever cede control of the offense (see BP).

" GO HOGS "

[Locutus_of_Boar]

1. How much progress can Chavis make with the defense?
2. How good is the offensive line?

I think Chavis reputation was built and sustained as much by the clock chewing power rushing games of Phil Fulmer and Les Miles as it was Chavis' own talent.  Even at that in 20 meetings with all variety of Arkansas teams his defenses have yielded a very ordinary 24 ppg. 

Paired with an offense that scores quickly or gives the ball back quickly Chavis' defenders are going to be just as susceptible to wearing down as the game goes along...especially against Bielema's offense.

With a good performance by the DB's and acceptable LB play Arkansas' chief risk is mistakes leading to self destruction.  Arkansas can give this game away but it is doubtful A&M can take it away.

[Seebs]

Sorry, but I have to call you out here, You obviously know nothing about Chavis or what is going on with our Defense. Chief has dramatically simplified our schemes. The players have all commented on how simple the scheme is now and that they used to have to do the equivalent of football calculus on the every play to determine where they needed to be and now it is more of a "just beat the man in front of you"

Good to know - which is why I prefaced with 'I imagine' .. simple is better IMO.  Should be fun to watch.

[Aggie96]

Good to know - which is why I prefaced with 'I imagine' .. simple is better IMO.  Should be fun to watch.

I think it also plays to the strengths of our DL as well, which is just get up the field in a hurry and put pressure on the backfield to make the decision on what to do.

I think the game will be one of the more physical games on either of our schedules this year. I really do wish that we would go back to a Home and Home though. I hate it being at Jurra world.

[bphi11ips]

Sorry, but I have to call you out here, You obviously know nothing about Chavis or what is going on with our Defense. Chief has dramatically simplified our schemes. The players have all commented on how simple the scheme is now and that they used to have to do the equivalent of football calculus on the every play to determine where they needed to be and now it is more of a "just beat the man in front of you"

Chavis' s defense is simple: grab the receivers.  SEC officials usually don't call pass interference.

[Stillwater]

I bet we hang 50 on them this year.