PredictionMachine.Com anaylizes home field advantage

[Locutus_of_Boar]

http://www.predictionmachine.com/Home-Field-Advantage-College-Football-2015

Which teams have the best home field advantage in college football?

If you are a college football fan, then you probably have thought of a list of the loudest and toughest stadiums to play in on Saturdays in the fall. However, the true home field advantage for each program may surprise even the most diehard fans.

Home field advantage in college football is typically presumed to mean about three points for the hosting team. This means that if two teams are identical, neither team should be favored on a neutral field, while the home team would be favored by about three if they played at one of the team's stadium. This can lead to essentially a six point swing from one venue to the next. The truth is that some stadiums could actually mean up to six points, while some do not help much at all (the expected difference in the margin of victory between Arkansas and Wisconsin from one stadium to the next, for instance, could be around 12 points, while the location does not really matter when Central Michigan plays Bowling Green).

1 North Texas Green 5.94 C-USA
2 Wisconsin Badgers 5.77 B1G
3 Arkansas Razorbacks 5.66 SEC
4 Kansas Jayhawks 5.66 B12
5 Marshall Herd 5.20 C-USA
6 Baylor Bears 5.18 B12
7 Rice Owls 5.12 C-USA
8 Michigan Wolverines 4.99 B1G
9 Kansas State Wildcats 4.96 B12
10 Buffalo Bulls 4.74 MAC
11 UTEP Miners 4.48 C-USA
12 Oklahoma Sooners 4.39 B12
13 LSU Tigers 4.36 SEC
28 Mississippi State Bulldogs 3.75 SEC
30 South Carolina Gamecocks 3.73 SEC
44 Tennessee Volunteers 3.23 SEC
48 Notre Dame Irish 3.16 IND
53 Ole Miss Rebels 3.02 SEC
54 Georgia Bulldogs 3.02 SEC
58 Auburn Tigers 2.94 SEC
61 Alabama Tide 2.83 SEC
78 Texas A&M Aggies 2.50 SEC
94 Florida Gators 2.12 SEC
96 Missouri Tigers 2.07 SEC
119 Texas Longhorns 0.51 B12

[SooiecidetillNuttgone]

Awesome find and mega-interesting to say the least.

According to the way they are interpreting this number crunch isn't exactly flattering though.

See this excerpt:

"The best teams should be closer to the bottom of the rankings than the top because they should dominate more consistently and not be subject to the large swings in performance from home to away like what is seen in other teams.

While traditionally elite FBS teams should not fare well in this exercise, the same can be said about teams that are traditionally really bad.

Where home field means most is with the next tier of teams - mostly BCS conference teams that can usually compete for conference titles, but do not have the depth to be consistent College Football Playoff contenders. That's when the value of home field matters most; when the talent is strong but not elite and players are more susceptible to the impact of crowd noise, tradition and atmosphere."

I'm not sure that I completely agree.   Having not been to a live game in several years, I'd love to hear what all of you think about how this data is being interpreted.

[bphi11ips]

I think some statisticians don't know a football from a grapefruit.