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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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MuskogeeHogFan

OK guys, what do you think of these three?

Utah @ BYU (-7) 61 O/U

Ariz St @ Stanford (-7) 50 1/2 O/U

Mich State @ Notre Dame (-6 1/2) 41 O/U
Go Hogs Go!

OldCoot

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on September 19, 2013, 06:32:42 am
OK guys, what do you think of these three?

Utah @ BYU (-7) 61 O/U

Ariz St @ Stanford (-7) 50 1/2 O/U

Mich State @ Notre Dame (-6 1/2) 41 O/U

I wouldn't mind hearing more analysis on Stanford game.  It looks favorable to Arizona.

 

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Dude on September 19, 2013, 06:52:31 am
I wouldn't mind hearing more analysis on Stanford game.  It looks favorable to Arizona.

I'm leaning towards an upset by Arizona State.
Go Hogs Go!

widespreadsooie

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on September 19, 2013, 06:32:42 am
OK guys, what do you think of these three?

Utah @ BYU (-7) 61 O/U

Ariz St @ Stanford (-7) 50 1/2 O/U

Mich State @ Notre Dame (-6 1/2) 41 O/U

That ND/MSU total is so low, would be hard to take the under no matter how few of points you may think will be scored in this game. I would almost look at the over out of sheer mathematical probabilities.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: widespreadsooie on September 19, 2013, 07:51:59 am
That ND/MSU total is so low, would be hard to take the under no matter how few of points you may think will be scored in this game. I would almost look at the over out of sheer mathematical probabilities.

I think the "over" is definitely a good play in that game. I think ND scores 20 and with as poor as their defense is this year, I think Mich State beats them so MSU +6-1/2 might be a good play as well. The ND faithful are going to be majorly p.o.'d after this weekend.
Go Hogs Go!

MuskogeeHogFan

Utah St @ S. California (-6 1/2) 51.5

Two good defenses and one good offense from all appearances but Utah State gave up 302 passing and 148 rushing (450 total to Utah in a 26-30 loss.

USC hasn't shown the ability to generate a lot of offense but they are allowing only 212 yds in total offense per game.

Not sure about this game but if I had to go with what I feel right now I'd say USC wins, but may not cover the 6.5.
Go Hogs Go!

Huckleberry Pig

First two picks of the weekend are...

Clemson (-13.5) -- 5*  -  First 5* play of the year.  On the road here tonight against a NC State team that has given them problems in years past.  However, I think this one will be different.  NC State is very young, only 11 starters returned from last year.  Currently, their QB Pete Thomas has thrown 0 TDs to 3 picks.  Their leading rusher and leading receiver are both true freshman.  This will be NC State's biggest game of the year and there will be a lot of pressure on those kids.  I just don't think they will deal with it well even if they are at home. 

With the big win against Georgia, Clemson knows this is their year.  They know that they must win the ACC and win big to get a chance to make the BCS Championship.  Their team speed should overwhelm NC State, who's D isn't great.  I just think this one is a 21-30 point game and was expecting the line at -18 to -21 at the least, not -13.5.  I know the problems Clemson has had in the past but with their big win against LSU last season and Georgia this year I think they are for real. 


Kansas City (+3) -- 2*  -  The Kansas City Chiefs are a REAL team.  This team returns a ton of pro bowlers and finally has a coach/QB capable of winning games.  Their O-line looked good against Dallas and should be even better against a weak Eagles D.  Jamaal Charles should have a BIG day.  I think Reid will really try to stick to running the ball/short passes and milk that time of possession.  Best D against Chip Kelly's O will be to have the ball out of their hands.  KC has the running game to do this. 

KC Defense is not bad either and after each game Chip Kelly has coached, that's another game of film teams get to watch.  This KC D is by no means a juggernaut but I think they are better than any D the Eagles have played yet.  Cheifs hang on to the ball, milk the clock, and win 27-24. 

UAstudent13

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 19, 2013, 09:17:10 am
First pick of the weekend is...

Clemson -13.5 -- 5*  -  First 5* play of the year.  On the road here tonight against a NC State team that has given them problems in years past.  However, I think this one will be different.  NC State is very young, only 11 starters returned from last year.  Currently, their QB Pete Thomas has thrown 0 TDs to 3 picks.  Their leading rusher and leading receiver are both true freshman.  This will be NC State's biggest game of the year and there will be a lot of pressure on those kids.  I just don't think they will deal with it well even if they are at home. 

With the big win against Georgia, Clemson knows this is their year.  They know that they must win the ACC and win big to get a chance to make the BCS Championship.  Their team speed should overwhelm NC State, who's D isn't great.  I just think this one is a 21-30 point game and was expecting the line at -18 to -21 at the least, not -13.5.  I know the problems Clemson has had in the past but with their big win against LSU last season and Georgia this year I think they are for real.

I didn't bet on this game, but if I had I would also take Clemson -13.5. Good luck with your 5* play.

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: UAstudent13 on September 19, 2013, 09:23:06 am
I didn't bet on this game, but if I had I would also take Clemson -13.5. Good luck with your 5* play.

thanks, added the NFL pick above as well.  anyone playing either game?

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 19, 2013, 09:17:10 am
First two picks of the weekend are...

Clemson (-13.5) -- 5*  -  First 5* play of the year.  On the road here tonight against a NC State team that has given them problems in years past.  However, I think this one will be different.  NC State is very young, only 11 starters returned from last year.  Currently, their QB Pete Thomas has thrown 0 TDs to 3 picks.  Their leading rusher and leading receiver are both true freshman.  This will be NC State's biggest game of the year and there will be a lot of pressure on those kids.  I just don't think they will deal with it well even if they are at home. 

With the big win against Georgia, Clemson knows this is their year.  They know that they must win the ACC and win big to get a chance to make the BCS Championship.  Their team speed should overwhelm NC State, who's D isn't great.  I just think this one is a 21-30 point game and was expecting the line at -18 to -21 at the least, not -13.5.  I know the problems Clemson has had in the past but with their big win against LSU last season and Georgia this year I think they are for real. 


Kansas City (+3) -- 2*  -  The Kansas City Chiefs are a REAL team.  This team returns a ton of pro bowlers and finally has a coach/QB capable of winning games.  Their O-line looked good against Dallas and should be even better against a weak Eagles D.  Jamaal Charles should have a BIG day.  I think Reid will really try to stick to running the ball/short passes and milk that time of possession.  Best D against Chip Kelly's O will be to have the ball out of their hands.  KC has the running game to do this. 

KC Defense is not bad either and after each game Chip Kelly has coached, that's another game of film teams get to watch.  This KC D is by no means a juggernaut but I think they are better than any D the Eagles have played yet.  Cheifs hang on to the ball, milk the clock, and win 27-24. 

So you are taking Clemson -13.5? I just don't see it. Maybe you see something I don't and that is very possible, but I just don't see Clemson covering the point spread. I agree that they will win, but I just have doubts about that PS.
Go Hogs Go!

Huckleberry Pig

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on September 19, 2013, 09:32:57 am
So you are taking Clemson -13.5? I just don't see it. Maybe you see something I don't and that is very possible, but I just don't see Clemson covering the point spread. I agree that they will win, but I just have doubts about that PS.

any reason why not?  I can see why people would be on NC State, 2TDs is a lot of points.  I just don't have faith in NC State D or O.  They were down by 11 to Richmond...  Richmond.  Ya maybe they were looking ahead but I'm just not sold.  Too young of a team, I like Clemson to run away. 

I could very well be wrong, won't be the first/last time I am  ;D 

BJOhog

Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on September 19, 2013, 07:59:12 am
I think the "over" is definitely a good play in that game. I think ND scores 20 and with as poor as their defense is this year, I think Mich State beats them so MSU +6-1/2 might be a good play as well. The ND faithful are going to be majorly p.o.'d after this weekend.
were our defense might be  little overrated right the now michigan state really do have the best defense in the nation i think you have to have large canoes to put money on any over they are in

BJOhog

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 19, 2013, 10:07:08 am
any reason why not?  I can see why people would be on NC State, 2TDs is a lot of points.  I just don't have faith in NC State D or O.  They were down by 11 to Richmond...  Richmond.  Ya maybe they were looking ahead but I'm just not sold.  Too young of a team, I like Clemson to run away. 

I could very well be wrong, won't be the first/last time I am  ;D

score wil be 70 to 10
i am going large tonight to

 

Huckleberry Pig


widespreadsooie

FL/TN u47.5 3 units

Gonna a take at look at MIC St. +6.5 for a possible final add.

MuskogeeHogFan

Quote from: billyjoeozark on September 19, 2013, 11:08:37 am
were our defense might be  little overrated right the now michigan state really do have the best defense in the nation i think you have to have large canoes to put money on any over they are in

I think you have to take into consideration that Mich State generates 34 points off of 370 yards of offense, which indicates to me that they tend to generate some points off of defense as well.

Not so much with ND.

The "over"? ND has a bad defense and it is very possible that between the two, there are more than 41 points scored. That is pretty low.
Go Hogs Go!

The Hogfather

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 19, 2013, 09:17:10 am
First two picks of the weekend are...

Clemson (-13.5) -- 5*  -  First 5* play of the year.  On the road here tonight against a NC State team that has given them problems in years past.  However, I think this one will be different.  NC State is very young, only 11 starters returned from last year.  Currently, their QB Pete Thomas has thrown 0 TDs to 3 picks.  Their leading rusher and leading receiver are both true freshman.  This will be NC State's biggest game of the year and there will be a lot of pressure on those kids.  I just don't think they will deal with it well even if they are at home.

I'm totally with you here.  Normally, I cringe taking a big favorite on the road, for a weekday game, especially coming off of a huge win.  However, Clemson had a bye to focus on NC St. and has a sorry game next week, so they won't be looking ahead.  With Mitchell at QB, I might make this a really small play.  Since he is out and the QB they will be starting is a step below him, I don't think they'll score much.  I'll say it will be somewhere around 38-10 or 45-10.

The Hogfather

I also like the Chiefs and the Under in that game.  KC's D is for real and their O will attempt to keep the ball away from Philly.

SPAL

My only concern is that the line hasn't shifted much in Clemson favor. Why is a Lin that seems obvious still at its opening number. It has moved to 14 an back to 13.5.

I've got a few hours to try and work on it, but Clemson look lik easy winners. But why is nobody betting that way?


McHogLovin

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 19, 2013, 01:12:26 pm
My only concern is that the line hasn't shifted much in Clemson favor. Why is a Lin that seems obvious still at its opening number. It has moved to 14 an back to 13.5.

I've got a few hours to try and work on it, but Clemson look lik easy winners. But why is nobody betting that way?



Clemson always lays an egg in Raleigh.  Dabo Swinney and Clemson do it every year somewhere.  Always vulnerable to lose to a lesser team it seems.  That said I think this is the year that their talent is just too much. 

The Hogfather

Quote from: McHogLovin on September 19, 2013, 01:18:12 pm
Clemson always lays an egg in Raleigh.  Dabo Swinney and Clemson do it every year somewhere.  Always vulnerable to lose to a lesser team it seems.  That said I think this is the year that their talent is just too much.

This is how I feel.  I just think this year sets up perfectly for Clemson with a bye week last week and no game to look ahead to.  Also, I think NC St doesn't have the talent, especially in key positions like QB, to hang with this year's Clemson.

SPAL

I've looked this game over for a couple of days, and other than the lack of line movement, I see no Reason this shouldn't hit as Clemson wins easily.

SPAL

Thursday card:

Clemson -14.    4 units


Eagles -3.   2 units


Good luck all.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

I hve two plays tonight

Clemson -13 / 10 unit dime play

KC &Philly under 51 / 5 units
Let's make some waves.

 

SPAL

Jeff throws his first dime of the season....(I think)

And he is playing on the same side as I am...(whew)

Good luck buddy

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 19, 2013, 02:21:46 pm
Jeff throws his first dime of the season....(I think)

And he is playing on the same side as I am...(whew)

Good luck buddy

Yep first dime.  Will go nuts if I find out 30 minutes before kickoff that taj boyd is out or something.  :)

I have a feeling their will be some heavy money coming in on Clemson soon.  Could be wrong though.

Good luck to you as well my man!
Let's make some waves.

ur

Using a 14 pt spread and a total of 66, they are predicting the score to be 40-26. I don't see nc state scoring that many points. They scored 23 against Richmond.

BJOhog

you men motivated me
uped it was only going to go 5 im ain at 10 now

   x   Pending   3 Team Parlay
Pending   9/19/13 8:25pm  NFL Football  301 Kansas City Chiefs +7½ -275* vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pending   9/19/13 7:30pm  College Football  303 Clemson -13½ -110* vs NC State
Pending   9/20/13 9:00pm  College Football  305 Boise State/Fresno State Over 68 -110*

   xx   Pending   9/19/13 7:30pm  Reduced Football  303 Clemson -13½ -101* vs NC State



ill put my hogvile bankrol up to 10 units clemson and 1 ut on that wacky parlayim already regretting

McHogLovin

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 19, 2013, 02:28:31 pm
Yep first dime.  Will go nuts if I find out 30 minutes before kickoff that taj boyd is out or something.  :)

I have a feeling their will be some heavy money coming in on Clemson soon.  Could be wrong though.

Good luck to you as well my man!

My only wish is I had grabbed this game at -13 when it opened. 

Hawgndaaz

Jeff single handedly tipped the hogville line back to 14 ha!


Im in behind you on that one. 4 units at -13.5

Had to pay out last week, 6.5 units total. never posted all my bets together but i'm too small time to be doubted. puts me at -2.5 units on the season.


Good luck folks!

Hawgndaaz

A few games I am looking at
Georgia Tech -6.5 at home vs NC Do Want
Maryland -5 at home vs WVU Sort of Want
Texas A&M -28.5 at home vs SMU Sort of Want
Hogs now +1.5 @ Rutgers interdasting?!

BJOhog

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on September 19, 2013, 05:00:50 pm
A few games I am looking at
Georgia Tech -6.5 at home vs NC Do Want
Maryland -5 at home vs WVU Sort of Want
Texas A&M -28.5 at home vs SMU Sort of Want
Hogs now +1.5 @ Rutgers interdasting?!

g tech has a dang good team this year i like that play and i like maryland
i actually think smu will cover there defense plays against this same offense everyday as what they will see


DadVader1

I got carried away and ramped up a bit faster than I planned.  Here's what I've done so far:

Tailed Jeff for 5 units on Clemson -12.5 (bought the hook).

I'm still working the kinks out of the system and had a Garbage In/Garbage Out moment earlier this week, but things are starting to take shape.  I played one unit each on:

Georgia -33
Georgia Tech -6.5
Baylor -29.5
A&M -28.5
Oregon St. -10.5
TN +16.5
Wyoming -4

BJOhog

i like those bets
i at first was on the tenner wagon im off
i think florida minus 5 turnovers against miami looks difernet and those gators will be mad i jus cant bet against them til i see a normal game from them
cant get much into that tamu over smu game but you guys prolly spot on

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 19, 2013, 02:28:31 pm
Yep first dime.  Will go nuts if I find out 30 minutes before kickoff that taj boyd is out or something.  :)

I have a feeling their will be some heavy money coming in on Clemson soon.  Could be wrong though.

Good luck to you as well my man!

question on the heavy money thing... does this typically happen sooner or later in the week, and does the fact that its a Thursday night make heavy hitters hesitant to load up on the visitor?

Wonder what the stat is on Thursday night home team dogs by 10 or more points.

Also, we never got the story on your Akron tshirt bet!

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on September 19, 2013, 05:12:22 pm
question on the heavy money thing... does this typically happen sooner or later in the week, and does the fact that its a Thursday night make heavy hitters hesitant to load up on the visitor?

Wonder what the stat is on Thursday night home team dogs by 10 or more points.

Also, we never got the story on your Akron tshirt bet!

This is part fact and part opinion. Fact is NFL Thursday night takes a away some from the college game.  Also heavy hitters don't have near as much to think about on Thursday night. Those in Nevada or A.C can wait till the very last minute.  Known whales can pretty much do what they want.  I know a guy that could call from his home and essentially bet 500k on a marker. Doesn't even have to put money up front. Wish I had that kind of pull with casinos.

By Saturday morning at 9:00 the really big players that don't have a middle guy are swamped with calls for info, and people trying to prove they can pick a game.  They will bet anything they are going to bet for the day by 6:00 central.  They will wait if they are contemplating a big prime time or west coast game.

Vegas has a ton to focus on on Saturday and Sunday. That's my only concern with the Clemson line. Tey should win by 35.  I won't state on here what my actual fear is, but if there were a reason to fear it I should have heard by now.

This is the type game Clemson loses one of every year. Double digit favorite and lose outright.  I'm sure it will happen to them again. History suggests it, but not tonight I don't think.
Let's make some waves.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Let's make some waves.

BJOhog

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 19, 2013, 05:27:11 pm
This is part fact and part opinion. Fact is NFL Thursday night takes a away some from the college game.  Also heavy hitters don't have near as much to think about on Thursday night. Those in Nevada or A.C can wait till the very last minute.  Known whales can pretty much do what they want.  I know a guy that could call from his home and essentially bet 500k on a marker. Doesn't even have to put money up front. Wish I had that kind of pull with casinos.

By Saturday morning at 9:00 the really big players that don't have a middle guy are swamped with calls for info, and people trying to prove they can pick a game.  They will bet anything they are going to bet for the day by 6:00 central.  They will wait if they are contemplating a big prime time or west coast game.

Vegas has a ton to focus on on Saturday and Sunday. That's my only concern with the Clemson line. Tey should win by 35.  I won't state on here what my actual fear is, but if there were a reason to fear it I should have heard by now.

This is the type game Clemson loses one of every year. Double digit favorite and lose outright.  I'm sure it will happen to them again. History suggests it, but not tonight I don't think.
me to there are a lot of stats puching folk to bet on nc state i won't mention them cause im a little superstitus there are a lot o thursday night nc stats that should scare folk but i am confident that the pure talent level prevals .
just in case i started in with my friend jack about 10 mins ago

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: billyjoeozark on September 19, 2013, 05:33:51 pm
me to there are a lot of stats puching folk to bet on nc state i won't mention them cause im a little superstitus there are a lot o thursday night nc stats that should scare folk but i am confident that the pure talent level prevals .
just in case i started in with my friend jack about 10 mins ago


Ha !!! Doubt you will need your friend Jack, but he makes lots. Things better!
Let's make some waves.

widespreadsooie


BJOhog

Quote from: Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson on September 19, 2013, 05:43:04 pm
Ha !!! Doubt you will need your friend Jack, but he makes lots. Things better!
i almost jus doubled up on this game figting the urge i know better too old for last minute emotion bets

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Quote from: billyjoeozark on September 19, 2013, 06:24:44 pm
i almost jus doubled up on this game figting the urge i know better too old for last minute emotion bets


Don't do it. Bad voodoo will happen :)
Let's make some waves.

BJOhog


Huckleberry Pig

jack is a good friend of mine.  will be enjoying his company tonight as well.  as EC says though, he kicks my ass somtimes

BJOhog

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 19, 2013, 07:10:38 pm
jack is a good friend of mine.  will be enjoying his company tonight as well.  as EC says though, he kicks my ass somtimes

mr jack is telling me acc is a helelovo lot better than anyone knews me included. i knew pac12 was good and miami clemson and flor state were real but wow



ill still win this boyd will wake up

but holy crap

Huckleberry Pig

Boyd has missed two wide open TD throws.  He needs to clean that shyt up. Also, Clemson D lookin real confused with all the misdirection

SPAL

God, the ACC sucks. Can taj Boyd throw downfield? How did UGA lose to this bunch?

BJOhog

Quote from: Huckleberry Pig on September 19, 2013, 07:26:06 pm
Boyd has missed two wide open TD throws.  He needs to clean that shyt up. Also, Clemson D lookin real confused with all the misdirection

i got a lot of problems with clemson atm. look either georgia is worse than we thought or the clemsoin coaches as incredible recriuters and crappy coaches

the truth is in the middle
clemson looks bad on a lot of thigs at this game. little worried
but the deal is depth . clemsons should win on depth. i think cause im finacially involved but holy cow

BJOhog

Quote from: sir-pigs-a-lot on September 19, 2013, 07:27:36 pm
God, the ACC sucks. Can taj Boyd throw downfield? How did UGA lose to this bunch?

dude before you post do the opisdtie side. its what i do

that goddarn nc state d line is unbeliveable .

strange this game makes me respect acc more

remember this post jan 15 aftr bowl time
im impressed

BJOhog