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OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)

Started by WILL CLINTON, August 28, 2011, 09:41:36 pm

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DadVader1

Quote from: BoynamedWooPigSooie on November 02, 2013, 04:01:00 am
Can't believe I left off S. Miss, that's an automatic pick against, regardless of spread lol.

Ha!  Yes, I've done pretty well this year when giving points to S. Miss and Cal.

WILL CLINTON

Plays today so far

VTech -4
UMass +28 (went the opposite way than my initial lean, almost always a bad idea)

both for 1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

 

WILL CLINTON

Okie St is now at -1 and is a MONSTER need from the bookie on therx. He is batting a ridiculous percentage on the MONSTER needs this year, so I'm thinking of dropping some coin because this is also Jeff's dime play today, so thats 2 pros and not a con I can think of yet.

Added:

Ok St -1 3* 
MTSU o63.5 1*
Indiana -7.5  1*
Arizona -14.5  1*
Mich St -4  1*
Miami +21  2*
UCLA -29  1*

Laying off Ga Tech.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

Adding Navy Notre Dame under 50 / dime play

Utep Tx gay & M under 77.5 / dime play

I am now officially done for the day win lose or draw!
Let's make some waves.

WILL CLINTON

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

staring down the barrell of 0-5 to start the day. Should've listened to myself about N Illini and UMass.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

BoynamedWooPigSooie

Sweet.  OT with Penn St./Illinois ensures my +10 play on the Illini pays out.
Hogville's resident uniform designer.

WILL CLINTON

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

BoynamedWooPigSooie

GT plays always make me nervous, but I like them against PITT too.
Hogville's resident uniform designer.

WILL CLINTON

tailing Jeff on his ND u50  1*

also got a ND u53.5 in game line  1*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Porked Tongue

First play since my dime win over a month ago.

I'm taking Aub/Ark over 55 for 2 units.

I see that the live line has gone back to Aub -8.5

Porked Tongue

Quote from: BoynamedWooPigSooie on November 02, 2013, 02:27:05 pm
Sweet.  OT with Penn St./Illinois ensures my +10 play on the Illini pays out.
Not always a guarantee.  There are cases where it didn't.

yraciv


 

BoynamedWooPigSooie

Quote from: Porked Tongue on November 02, 2013, 02:55:39 pm
Not always a guarantee.  There are cases where it didn't.

I don't see how a team could win by more than 8 points in an OT game. 
Hogville's resident uniform designer.

WILL CLINTON

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

DadVader1

GREAT call on your dime plays Jeff!  YOU da Man!

I was sweating it after a slow start on Thurs, but I avoided a week-3 skid and had a good weekend despite a 1-2 start on Thursday.  I ended up going 4-2-1 ATS for +10 units before juice and 6-0 on parlays for +7.4 units after juice (with one push and a few hooks) for a +17.4 weekend.  That puts me at 45-27-3 ATS (63%) and 26-10 on parlays (72%) for +58.1 units on the season. 

Aub -8    W 5 units
Houston -18  L 5 units
Minn. +10  W 5 units
Mizz -9.5  W 5 units
Rice +4.5 L 5 units
AZ St. -11.5 W 5 units
MdTNSt -3 Push

2-team parlays:
Aub -7  W
Minn +8  W
MO -9.5  W
MTSU -3  Push

Porked Tongue

Quote from: BoynamedWooPigSooie on November 02, 2013, 06:42:45 pm
I don't see how a team could win by more than 8 points in an OT game. 

in college, Team A scores first.
Then when they go on defense they get a pick 6.

It has happened.

WILL CLINTON

I'm chasing lost money from yesterday on NFL today. I tailed all these.

Pitt +6
Philly +1.5
Cleveland +2
Tampa +16.5
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Porked Tongue

These large double digit dogs are money in the NFL.

WILL CLINTON

Damn you Pitt. looking hard at colts v texans. have good info for both sides, and the over, and the under. hard to make decisions.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

widespreadsooie

Well gentlemen, I'm done with CFB until bowl season. Took it on the chin last week, good. I'll still be posting plays for fun, but there won't be any real money involved. I'll be sure to reiterate that when plays are posted. I have a little bank roll left, but want to sit on it while I can build it back up to where it needs to be for bowl and early CBB action. I'll get around to updating my records by tomorrow evening.

DadVader1

Sorry to hear that Widespread!  It looks like last weekend was indeed a "correction" weekend.  The rating system that had been hitting at 58% for the season hit in the 30's and several of the systems that had been hitting at around 55% for the season hit in the low 40's.  Hopefully, last weekend was just one of those hiccups that you get once every few/several weeks, and we'll get back to more predictable results next weekend.

Hillbilly Hawg

"You're not your job. You're not how much money you have in the bank. You're not the car you drive. You're not the contents of your wallet. You're not your f****** khakis. You're the all-singing, all-dancing crap of the world."        -Tyler Durden

Hawgndaaz

played zero NFL games this week. finished down 4 units on dumb west coast game bets late Saturday after too many spirits.

 

WILL CLINTON

I never thought I'd say this, but thank God for the NFL. Really bailed me out big time. I hit 3-1 on those, and multiple parlays involving those 4 teams, so it saved me from a negative weekend.

Otherwise, I have to stop playing so many games. I say the same thing every year, and every year I see something on a website or get a text or something that completely makes me forget about it. Oh well.

Bad week last week, but this week could and should be a bounce back weekend. G/L to everyone.

ND u53.5  1*  L -$26
ND u50  1*  L -$26
Ga Tech -11  1*  Push
2h VTech -.5  1*  L -$26
2h Temple +7  1*  L -$26
Ok St -1 3*  W +$97
MTSU o63.5 1* L -$26
Indiana -7.5  1*   L -$26
Arizona -14.5  1*  L -$26
Mich St -4  1*  W +$24
Miami +21  2*  L -$52
UCLA -29  1*  L -$26
VTech -4  1*  L -$26
UMass +28  1*  L -$26
Or St -3.5 2*  L -$52
USC +7 1*  W +$24
USC v Or St under 52.5  1*  W +$24
Arizona St -11  1*  W +$24
Arizona over 71  1*  W +$24
2half Houston -8.5 1*  L -$26
2half Rice -1.5  1*  L -$26

Weekly Record:
6-14-1 (30%)

Overall Record:
53-70-6 (43%)  $286  -90% ROI
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

And just like that, I'm already on 3 for tonight

BG ov 48  1*
Buffalo -4  2*
Buffalo u54  1*

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

FINALLY...a great start to the week.

3-0 and it's only Tuesday. Celebrate the small victories.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

DadVader1

YES!  Congrats.  I'm still waiting on a few more rating systems to post their data.  One early lean is AZ St. -7 @ Utah.  I hope to have more to post by this evening.

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on November 05, 2013, 10:44:19 pm
FINALLY...a great start to the week.

3-0 and it's only Tuesday. Celebrate the small victories.

I know its frowned upon, but I tailed all 3 of your bets and didn't post it. thanks regardless!

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on November 06, 2013, 09:20:11 am
I know its frowned upon, but I tailed all 3 of your bets and didn't post it. thanks regardless!

don't worry, all 3 of mine were gleaned from different people on a few different websites I read. I usually just get my leans and then compare with what other people are doing. If 2 or 3 of the people I follow are on them with me, I bet. If too many people are on them with me, I may reduce the bet or slack off completely.

Feel free to tail me anytime. The goal is for everyone to make money. The only people I want to "beat" are the bookies.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hawgndaaz

I just meant I didn't post beforehand that I was going with the same

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on November 06, 2013, 02:30:17 pm
I just meant I didn't post beforehand that I was going with the same

Oh. reading hasn't been my strong suit this week
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

goind for the unheard of 5-0 to start the week by adding the following

CMU +21
CMU under 58
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

Hawgndaaz


DadVader1

November 06, 2013, 09:43:50 pm #5534 Last Edit: November 06, 2013, 10:00:57 pm by DadVader1
I'm still waiting on one key rating system that is later than usual in posting its data, but my leans at this point are:

Utah St. -13.5 @ UNLV
AZ St. -7 @ Utah
TX -6 @ W. VA
Fresno St. -9 @ Wyoming
MO -14 @ Kentucky

The spreadsheets are also leaning Hawaii +17 @ Navy, but I'll probably skip that one because that has to be a LONG trip for Hawaii traveling to the East Coast, and I seriously doubt that rating systems try to take that into account.

WILL CLINTON

Quote from: Hawgndaaz on November 06, 2013, 07:02:20 pm
well crud i took BSU -20.5



Hope you bought the hook bro. I pushed on one site, and won the other. 4-1 isn't too shabby though.

For tomorrow I'm tempted to go OU, but Im so unsure I don't now if I'd think of  that as more than a thought. I'm guess I'm joe public, but I'm hard core Oregon.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

DadVader1

November 07, 2013, 04:24:20 pm #5537 Last Edit: November 07, 2013, 04:50:19 pm by DadVader1
Here's what I've done so far, 5 units each on:

Utah St. -13.5
AZ St. -6.5
TX -6.5
Fresno -9.5
MO -13.5
OM -17 
USCw -16

Also have nine 2-team parlays on the following teams for a total of 4.5 units:
TX -6.5
Utah St. -13.5
AZ St. -6.5
MO -13.5
Fresno -9

The spreadsheets also liked Syracuse +5 (I passed because MD gets their QB back for this game), and Hawaii +17 (I passed because of the long trip from Hawaii to East Coast), and Colorado +28.  I almost played Colorado.  For my final cut, it came down to taking Colo & getting a lot of points or taking USC and giving points to Cal.  It was a close call, but giving points to Cal has been a good move this year, and USC just got back their star receiver (who had a nice game last week).

DadVader1

The spreadsheets have gotten pretty massive and take a fair amount of time to update and search, so I've been learning how to use macros and VBA with Excel.  I'm pretty stoked that I had a breakthrough on some beginner VBA stuff that should save a LOT of time and help me review a LOT more combinations in search of favorable trends.  Instead of running a few thousand scenarios looking for favorable trends with plain vanilla Excel formulas and functions like I've been doing, in a week or two, I should be able to run a few hundred thousand scenarios in less time.  By next season, it might even creep up to around 1 million+ scenarios (in less time) in search of profitable trends.

Hawgndaaz

Quote from: WILL CLINTON on November 06, 2013, 10:34:21 pm
Hope you bought the hook bro. I pushed on one site, and won the other. 4-1 isn't too shabby though.

For tomorrow I'm tempted to go OU, but Im so unsure I don't now if I'd think of  that as more than a thought. I'm guess I'm joe public, but I'm hard core Oregon.

I did not buy the hook. I usually ignore them unless they're a multiple of 7 once the spread is over 14. Of course the subs rattle off 14 points in the final quarter for the loss lol.

Tonight looks for some great games but who knows how the hell these teams perform? I will probably bet this three ways:

Teaser lowering both spreads and taking the favorites

Parlay both favorites

Take one or both overs.


Hawgndaaz

Nov 07 CFB [110] BAYLOR -10½-110 (B+6) 
Nov 07 CFB [113] OREGON -4-110 (B+6)
2 unit teaser



STRAIGHT BET Nov 07 CFB [110] BAYLOR -16½-110  1.5U
STRAIGHT BET Nov 07 CFB [112] UL LAFAYETTE -13½-110  1.5U
STRAIGHT BET Nov 07 CFB [113] OREGON -10-110  55.00 USD / 50.00 USD 1U
STRAIGHT BET Nov 07 CFB [1113] 1H OREGON -6½-110  2U


All favorites tonight.

widespreadsooie

I'm not betting real money on these picks but I would wager 2u on:

Stan +10
OU +16.5
ORE/Stan u61.5

Also realized I haven't updated my record. I'll try to remember to do so tonight.

WILL CLINTON

Oregon -10  1*
Oregon -11  1*
Oregon v Stanford u60  1*
Oregon v Stanford u61.5  1*

I added these because they are lines I've been studying and agonizing over this whole week. I instantly loved Oregon on Sunday -9.5 all the way up to about 14. I can't explain it, and maybe I'm the "non-sharp" that keep the bookies in action, but I can't go against my gut.

I'm thinking of jumping on OU/Baylor halftime.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

Added:

Oregon -4 in game line  1*
2h Baylor -7  3*
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

WILL CLINTON

There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

McKdaddy

Don't buy upgrades, ride up grades.

"You are everything that is wrong with this place . . . Ban me"

"CPI, ex-food and energy, is only good for an anorexic pedestrian"--Art Cashin

Hawgndaaz

Got killed on all bets but baylor. Might have to shut it down after tonight as ill be down almost 40 units on the year. Oregons QB was exposed as  a fraud when he went against a pass rush and turned into brandon allen. Somehow the skins get beat by a  god awful Vikings squad. I cant pick a game if I had to.

widespreadsooie

YTD: 53-50 -3.5u less juice/ 51%
Totals: 18-20 47%
ATS: 34-25-1 58%
Parlay: 1-1
Teases: 0-4


This is what my regular season will end at. Rough week 10. Look forward to bowls and college basketball. Also hope y'all won't mind me posting plays with no money on them. I still really enjoy it for fun.

WILL CLINTON

I was suckered into the Oregon hype. Can't believe they were beat that bad, because it was BAD. they were out-physicaled all game. Luckily that kept the score down so I hit both unders, and Baylor is legit. They could have scored 60 if they wanted, but they kept it within the 30.5 in game line I got.

So I finished 4-3 for tonight, but up 3* because of going heavy on Baylor. Already at 8-4 for the week. Degenerate doesn't begin to cover it.
There is no sacred ground for the conquered.

DadVader1

Keep posting your picks Widespread.  I doubt many will tail you on Totals, but you have a knack for picking ATS. 

Good start Will!  ... and yes, the D word comes to mind when you've already made 12 plays before Friday :) 

Last night was a good example of why I'm learning not to make plays based purely on my gut.  I trust my gut as a filter, but if I don't have some data or edge to back it up, with my handicapping skills (or lack thereof), I might as well flip a coin.  I bought into the Oregon & Baylor hype and thought both would roll.  Most of the pundits that I heard thought that Oregon was safe and Baylor was on upset alert.  Glad I passed on those games.