Hurrican Ike and the Texas game [merged]

[rules]

I live in Houston and have my whole life and Im not going anywhere. The only thing that will happen is its going to rain in Austin, this can only help the Hogs the way we are playing right now.

[Tammany Tom]

Not good news for Hogsanity or the Gulfcoast.  Hope that high breaks down and the damn thing goes to Mexico.

His opinion is definetly in the minority. However, me and everyone else that lives on the Gulf has to pay extremely close attention whenever any hurricane gets in the Gulf.

[Feralhog]

His opinion is definetly in the minority. However, me and everyone else that lives on the Gulf has to pay extremely close attention whenever any hurricane gets in the Gulf.

I'm watching the weather channel and their expert basically parroted your guys opinion as one possible option.

[razorback1975]

Texas is a little different then arky .  We have more than 1 major roadway(ie: nwa).  The last time i looked Austin was not on the coast, so thanks for sucking

I smited you for being a smarta$$, but it was still funny. This is why we "Love" playing Texass

[hogsanity]

Not good news for Hogsanity or the Gulfcoast.  Hope that high breaks down and the damn thing goes to Mexico.

Oh, I fully expect to get fricked by this.

[whatsshakinbacon]

I just hope the 70 mph winds don't negatively impact our kicking game.

Bacon out...

[want2be]

I live in Houston and have my whole life and Im not going anywhere. The only thing that will happen is its going to rain in Austin, this can only help the Hogs the way we are playing right now.

Rain and WINDS at least 30 mph...........I don't mind the rain but the WIND is going to cause alot of problems........our backs are not big enough to pound the yards in the rain.

The bad thing about these wind/rain bands they do not come out of a consistent direction so there is no advantage

[Tammany Tom]

For those of you that are interested in following Ike closely and you haven't really followed hurricanes in the past, here are the key times of the day when updated info comes out:

The NHC updates their track every 6 hours (10am cst, 4pm cst, 10pm, 4am). So, a new track will come out in the next 30 minutes or so.

The computer models are updated every 6 hours (1am cst, 7 am cst, 1 pm, 7 pm).

The NHC gives intermediate updates every 3 hours between the Major track update times. They update the exact location and speed of the hurricane.

Hope this helps.

[Tammany Tom]

One more thing: This thing has blown up quite a bit in the past 3 hours. Our local news just showed it coming off Cuba and how it formed a really nice eye in the past 2 hours. In the last update by the NHC they had it at 75 mph. Our local news meterologist just said that he thinks that right now it is at least 90 mph, so expect a change when the update comes out in a few minutes.   The temps of the Gulf are around 85 to 86 degrees right now and that is very fertile temps to blow it up. They don't expect much wind shear, so it will get much stronger. He expects it to be a Cat 2 or 3 by tommorrow afternoon.   

[taintlint]

One more thing: This thing has blown up quite a bit in the past 3 hours. Our local news just showed it coming off Cuba and how it formed a really nice eye in the past 2 hours. In the last update by the NHC they had it at 75 mph. Our local news meterologist just said that he thinks that right now it is at least 90 mph, so expect a change when the update comes out in a few minutes.   The temps of the Gulf are around 85 to 86 degrees right now and that is very fertile temps to blow it up. They don't expect much wind shear, so it will get much stronger. He expects it to be a Cat 2 or 3 by tommorrow afternoon.   

You sound like you have been through this song and dance before. What do YOU think it will do?

I'm saying it lands just about smack dab in the middle of the Texas coast and then pushes north.

[Tammany Tom]

You sound like you have been through this song and dance before. What do YOU think it will do?

I'm saying it lands just about smack dab in the middle of the Texas coast and then pushes north.

Oh, I have been through it a few times. I have no idea where it's gonna go, but here is an interesting archived track of Rita in 2005:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

Notice how similar the forecast is to Ike. Pretty amazing. That is why anyone from Brownsville, TX to Lafayette, LA has to really watch this thing.

[moses_007]

Why not do a Thursday or Friday Night game and get it done before tropical winds are a problem.

[Clint Alan]

You sound like you have been through this song and dance before. What do YOU think it will do?

I'm saying it lands just about smack dab in the middle of the Texas coast and then pushes north.

It has slowed down quite a bit since the eye has gotten back over water......last report had it moving more in a W/NW at 9 mph.......

I bet this thing slams Louisiana......unfortunately for them.......

[taintlint]

Why not do a Thursday or Friday Night game and get it done before tropical winds are a problem.

Because winds aren't the issue in the first place. Coastal evacuations and Austin's role in them are.

[Michael Porkleone]

Fox map now shows Ike over central Texas at 8 PM Sat - didn't it used to say 2 PM?

[threeNout]

For those of you that are interested in following Ike closely and you haven't really followed hurricanes in the past, here are the key times of the day when updated info comes out:

The NHC updates their track every 6 hours (10am cst, 4pm cst, 10pm, 4am). So, a new track will come out in the next 30 minutes or so.

The computer models are updated every 6 hours (1am cst, 7 am cst, 1 pm, 7 pm).

The NHC gives intermediate updates every 3 hours between the Major track update times. They update the exact location and speed of the hurricane.

Hope this helps.

thanks for that info,

looks like we could be getting a new track anytime now.

[Tammany Tom]

Fox map now shows Ike over central Texas at 8 PM Sat - didn't it used to say 2 PM?

Yep, it has slowed down to 9 mph. That is not good news for us in Louisiana. The more it slows down, then the trough can pick it up before it hits Texas.

Like I said in an earlier post, expect the forecast track and times to change numerous times over the next few days.

[HoopS]

Well, I don't like that it slowed.  If it would have picked up speed, it would have stayed more south.   What I just saw puts the cone pretty much border to border Texas and moving North when it hits land. 

By morning, I suspect we'll know the plan. 

[hogwildinhouston]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

Notice how similar the forecast is to Ike. Pretty amazing. That is why anyone from Brownsville, TX to Lafayette, LA has to really watch this thing.

Having been in Houston with Rita, that is really amazing.....the 10 pm cst update that Tuesday night had Rita centered almost exactly where Ike is now.  Forecast path at that time is almost exactly what Ike's is tonight.

It will be very interesting to see if the forecast creeps up the Texas coast as Rita's did, or holds steady at around Corpus. 

Houston was almost surreal starting around that Wednesday morning with Rita.  I wonder if the bullet dodged with Rita will make people more passive this time if the forecast does shift more towards us. 

[Clint Alan]

I'd be willing to put $50, this thing has changed paths again by the time we wake up in the morning........Tom is right on I think in what he posted from the one Hurrican fella......that pressure to the west is pushing on the system, which has caused it to slow down quite a bit since the last report.....They also said it has started more in a northern fashion than what it was earlier......

I would be prepared if I were in Louisiana......

[taintlint]

Ike updated (10pm).....
http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current
http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/

[Feralhog]

Ike updated (10pm).....
http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current
http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/

It this path is correct, there will be H2 winds in Austin at kickoff

[taintlint]

Looking at all the possibilities, excluding a very sharp turn north, I have a hard time seeing the coast not being evacuated and the AD's hand not forced to cancel.

[GuvHog]

Looking at all the possibilities, excluding a very sharp turn north, I have a hard time seeing the coast not being evacuated and the AD's hand not forced to cancel.

Agreed, the chances of the game being canceled are growing with each passing day.

[whatsshakinbacon]

This thing slowing down does not bode well for the coast...wherever it hits.  Gustav didn't grow strong in the gulf because it was moving so fast, at times 17-20 mph.  Unfortunately Ike is at the optimum speed for major strengthening.  If it doesn't pick up speed watch the forecast to upgrade from a grade 3 to a grade 4 by the time it hits wherever it's going.

Bacon out...

[taintlint]

Just dragging this from page 4:

Ike as of 10pm

[Papawhog]

I believe we have a 75% chance of not playing saturday in Austin. Looks to me Ike needs to hang a hard right quickly and I don't see that happening with the high pressure directing the path. Gonna get ugly as it continues to grow and intensify in size. Katrina's wind field was around 400 miles with Ike's estimated to be 500 miles.

[EastexHawg]

Come on EastTex, take my bet.  Skeered?

No, I'm not scared.  You're on for $50.  There will be no recorded 70 mph wind from Ike in Austin, as officially recorded at either of the Austin airports, at any time on Saturday.  Let's pick someone from the board to hold the money for us and get it on.

What you apparently fail to realize is that hurricanes are routinely overhyped in order to scare people into evacuating.  The forecast for the Tyler area for Rita called for 60-70 mph winds and catastrophic rain.  As I sat and looked out the window that afternoon, I commented to my wife, "I've played golf in heavier rain than this."

Who do you trust to hold my winnings until midnight Saturday night?

[HogFan1973]

No, I'm not scared.  You're on for $50.  There will be no recorded 70 mph wind from Ike in Austin, as officially recorded at either of the Austin airports, at any time on Saturday.  Let's pick someone from the board to hold the money for us and get it on.

What you apparently fail to realize is that hurricanes are routinely overhyped in order to scare people into evacuating.  The forecast for the Tyler area for Rita called for 60-70 mph winds and catastrophic rain.  As I sat and looked out the window that afternoon, I commented to my wife, "I've played golf in heavier rain than this."

Who do you trust to hold my winnings until midnight Saturday night?

I hear what you are saying for sure.  When Rita came through Houston two years ago, a friend of mine left Houston because it was "going to be so bad" - spent 14 hours on the highway to go 30 miles, only to return to his home to see less than an inch of rain and no damage. 

That Tenn game on the saturday before 9/11, poured that night and they didn't seem to have any problem playing the game (I was soaked though).

[hogsanity]

Report that mandatory Texas evacuations could include over 1million people. 

[booogaga]

we should just play the game at the U of A

[Jim Harris]

Its almost a certainty this game will not be played at all on Saturday.  Ike did a great job of staying together across Cuba and almost certainly will be a major hurricane within two days.  Explosive development is likely (could start by tomorrow morning) and I would be more surprised if it didn't get to Cat 4 (even Cat 5) than if it did.  With it likely being at landfall at least a Cat 3 hurricane its almost impossible to have the game due to the weather itself affecting the game and the fact that the emergency managers and school officials won't want to have a game going on while evacuations were under way.  I read somewhere earlier today that the Texas AD mentioned the Texas/Arkansas bye week as this most likely replacement date.  He also mentioned that the campus/stadium is a evacuation point. 

your name says it all.

[Jim Harris]

I just hope the 70 mph winds don't negatively impact our kicking game.

Bacon out...

Gee, with 70 mile an hour winds behind him, Davis might be able to reach the 5-yard-line with a kickoff.

[ua_hogs]

Gee, with 70 mile an hour winds behind him, Davis might be able to reach the 5-yard-line with a kickoff.

too bad it would be the 5 yard line behind him

[HoopS]

I would be shocked if we play. 

[Tammany Tom]

Here are a few paragraphs from the Crown Report this morning. The Crown Tropical Weather Service does a good job of forecasting hurricanes:

I continue to believe that Ike will strengthen to at least a mid to upper Category 3 hurricane (120 to 130 mph) on Thursday and very possibly Category 4 strength and maintaining that intensity right through landfall, which is anticipated to be around dawn Saturday morning. Therefore, we are looking at the very real and dangerous potential for a Category 3 and quite possibly a Category 4 landfall on the Texas coast around dawn Saturday morning.

Ok, here is my thinking as of early this morning: I think Ike will end up making landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Freeport around dawn Saturday morning. This area is centered right on an area around Matagorda Island and Port Lavaca. I anticipate Ike to make landfall as at least a Category 3 and quite possibly a Category 4 hurricane. Even though my confidence for a landfall in the Matagorda Island/Port Lavaca area is growing, I still would like to note that the forecast track of Ike is by no means set in stone and everyone along the entire Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana should be preparing for a major hurricane landfall.

Ike is also expected to be a very large storm in overall size and some effects from the storm will be felt all over the Gulf of Mexico.

With the current forecast track in mind, tropical storm force winds will reach the coast of Texas as early as Friday morning with tropical storm force winds potentially reaching metro Houston by midday Friday. The tropical storm force winds will extend out as far as 200 miles or so from the center. The key thing right now is to watch the overall model trends over the next day or so as I anticipate a couple of more model shifts before the model guidance finally locks into an landfall area.

[markmchog]

Report that mandatory Texas evacuations could include over 1million people. 

That's just in the Rio Grande Valley area. That figure doesn't include the Corpus to Galveston stretch of the coast.

Yahoo news is reporting that voluntary evac has begun in Corpus for the special medical needs patients, and they have opened an extra northbound lane on I-37.

[JFHWGBKRIII]

I hope all goes well for the whole area.
I have a sister and their family in Baytown.  They might be moving out if it gets really bad there.
The game is secondary to the safety of all.

[Clint Alan]

Latest update at 7 has it slowed down to moving w/nw @ 8 mph.........this thing is slowing on down a bit.......still just a category 1 hurricane..........

[GBoling5000]

Can you imagine the logistical problems that would occur if Nutty was still the coach?  First, how do you fly a banner in a 70mph breeze?  Also, do you know what kind of damage a fingernail flying at 70 mph could do?  Hooray Petrino and GHG!!!!!!!!!!!

[Nuttless]

   Oh man that was funny there.  Fingernail flying...LOL!!

[babywhiz]

LOL...that's just what I thought... +1

[hogstorm]

The pressure is falling slowly right but I still expect it to intensify quickly up to Cat 3 or 4 by tomorrow afternoon.  The IR Satellite loop is looking better all the time with the center becoming more centralized to the convection. There is no reason as this point to think there is any chance the game will be played.

You can keep track of Ike's strength the best by watching the reports from the Hurricane Hunters. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?.

The key thing to watch is on line H. which shows pressure.  Right now its at 959mb after dropping from 967mb earlier this morning.  That's not a huge pressure drop but does show it is strengthening. 

[opineonswine]

I'll be shocked if we play Sat.  New, updated forecast for Austin by the Nat'l Weather Svc:

Saturday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 86. Windy, with a northeast wind 30 to 35 mph increasing to between 45 and 50 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

[want2be]

               They are not going to play....not only is Austin going to get hit
               with high winds and heavy rains, but you also have all the evacuees
               that will coming thru the area causing major traffic problems.

           

[Clint Alan]

I hope it is postponed to the 27th. Gives our young pups an extra week to get better for Bama

Why? For us that have tickets to this game......there is not a place within an hour and half to stay the weekend of the 27th.........

[GolfingAndy]

I hope it is postponed to the 27th. Gives our young pups an extra week to get better for Bama

How does that get us better for Bama when we've been game planning for Texas? These guys need game experience.

Also, their routine would be completely thrown off.

The best possible thing for us is for this game to go down as planned. Get Texas out of the way so we can concentrate on the SEC.

[HotlantaHog]

If they move the game to the 27th, I have bad news for those going: There are NO hotel rooms available downtown. I have no clue what is happening, and there are rooms outside the downtown area but not close to campus or 6th street.

[taintlint]

Ike Updated (7am)
http://www.stormpulse.com/fullscreen/current
http://web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/
You are on crack if you think this game will be played. I don't care if UT says they are waiting til Thursday to make a decision or not. If the coast is evacuated, the game is over. The weather in Austin makes no difference. Austin is the primary evacuation point for Galveston (but Galveston is well east of many projections) and overflow for countless others. This city is already opening up additional shelters and asking for can goods. G-A-M-E-O-V-E-R

[taintlint]

Austin City Limits music festival is that weekend ... http://www.aclfestival.com/default.aspx

Yup. Couple hundred thousand will be DT the entire weekend.