Oaklawn Friday

[mckinneyhog5]

Gonna take a shot with the 6 Best Trick Yet in the 3rd.
50 WP and a 25 2/6 ex box.

[mckinneyhog5]

Gonna take a shot with the 6 Best Trick Yet in the 3rd.
50 WP and a 25 2/6 ex box.

It may not return nothing but current odds of 17-1 make this to tough to pass.

[userpick]

My play of the day: Detroit cowboy in the 5th

[BigBrandonAllenFan]

Good luck!

[mckinneyhog5]

It may not return nothing but current odds of 17-1 make this to tough to pass.

Should have passed.. Lol
To much trouble out of gate and had to check more then once.

[mckinneyhog5]

I like Just Do It in the 4th and Explosive Lake in the 5 th.

[Russ22]

I like Just Do It in the 4th and Explosive Lake in the 5 th.

Please explain why you would choose Do It rather than Larrissa's Love (or some other horse). Serious question...Is it an odds versus true chance to win?

[The Hogfather]

My play of the day: Detroit cowboy in the 5th

Nice!  I saw it too late.

[mckinneyhog5]

Please explain why you would choose Do It rather than Larrissa's Love (or some other horse). Serious question...Is it an odds versus true chance to win?

Combo of both..mostly odds though.
I'm usually good for one LS a day but I have to play my LS in each race that day. I can't jump back and forth from picking LS to picking the likely winner.
Today I'm fishing for long shots.
Race 6 #5 Gently tapped   20 WP

[userpick]

I'm playing #1 in race 6, Prado's Smokin. Small play

[userpick]

I've only seen a few races but looks like speed is doing well.

[The Hogfather]

Combo of both..mostly odds though.
I'm usually good for one LS a day but I have to play my LS in each race that day. I can't jump back and forth from picking LS to picking the likely winner.
Today I'm fishing for long shots.
Race 6 #5 Gently tapped   20 WP

Wow.  Nice!!

[mckinneyhog5]

Combo of both..mostly odds though.
I'm usually good for one LS a day but I have to play my LS in each race that day. I can't jump back and forth from picking LS to picking the likely winner.
Today I'm fishing for long shots.
Race 6 #5 Gently tapped   20 WP

And that ladies and gentlemen is how you do it..
47.60 to win and 19.80 for the place!

[Dropkick]

Combo of both..mostly odds though.
I'm usually good for one LS a day but I have to play my LS in each race that day. I can't jump back and forth from picking LS to picking the likely winner.
Today I'm fishing for long shots.
Race 6 #5 Gently tapped   20 WP

BOOM!

[userpick]

wow just noticed! congrats!

[mckinneyhog5]

BOOM!

Returned $674.00!

[mckinneyhog5]

Horse had a very impressive workout history usually running 4 f in 48 flat everytime he stepped on the track. Raced against much better last year and on the drop stretching out to a mile and 1/6. Horse also had very good early sped in previous races and Court had just won the previous race and it looked like he would go for the lead out of the gate.

I wish I could see things so clearly every race but we all know that's not gonna happen.

[The Hogfather]

Returned $674.00!

I had him with the 2!  Dang.

[mckinneyhog5]

I had him with the 2!  Dang.

Damn...I used to love and only play exactas but man they can be a whore!

[mckinneyhog5]

Going  with the 2 Pickett Factor 20 WP

[The Hogfather]

Damn...I used to love and only play exactas but man they can be a whore!

I'm moving that way!  Only vertical wagers and/or on the nose is coming in my future.  I can feel it.

[Russ22]

Combo of both..mostly odds though.
I'm usually good for one LS a day but I have to play my LS in each race that day. I can't jump back and forth from picking LS to picking the likely winner.
Today I'm fishing for long shots.
Race 6 #5 Gently tapped   20 WP

Thanks. I was just curious. I wrote a program to do this stuff for me. I don't put money on the picks yet. You can check out how the picks "would have done."

http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2017/03/march-2-5-mc-algorithm-results-from.html
http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2017/02/february-25-and-february-26-mc.html
http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2017/02/february-19-and-february-20-mc.html

It's a small sample size, but it is positive for $2 Win and Exacta boxes. It selected the Indian Oaks win last week at almost 70-to-1.

[Russ22]

Pickett Factor is my Monte Carlo program's top pick as well.

[mckinneyhog5]

Gonna finish the day with two late DDs

$20 2,4/2

See u guys tomorrow

[mckinneyhog5]

Thanks. I was just curious. I wrote a program to do this stuff for me. I don't put money on the picks yet. You can check out how the picks "would have done."

http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2017/03/march-2-5-mc-algorithm-results-from.html
http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2017/02/february-25-and-february-26-mc.html
http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2017/02/february-19-and-february-20-mc.html

It's a small sample size, but it is positive for $2 Win and Exacta boxes. It selected the Indian Oaks win last week at almost 70-to-1.

Your system appears to be returning a very nice profit! When do you plan on putting it into action? Do you have a certain sample size you want to reach before doing so.

[Russ22]

It is just thru 13 days. I want to give it 200 races before making a judgement on putting money on it.

[Russ22]

It is just thru 13 days. I want to give it 200 races before making a judgement on putting money on it.

It was 0 for today. Ugh. I guess it is long term deal.

[ghostzapper]

And that ladies and gentlemen is how you do it..
47.60 to win and 19.80 for the place!

Congrats!

[ghostzapper]

Thanks. I was just curious. I wrote a program to do this stuff for me. I don't put money on the picks yet. You can check out how the picks "would have done."

http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2017/03/march-2-5-mc-algorithm-results-from.html
http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2017/02/february-25-and-february-26-mc.html
http://depriest-mpu.blogspot.com/2017/02/february-19-and-february-20-mc.html

It's a small sample size, but it is positive for $2 Win and Exacta boxes. It selected the Indian Oaks win last week at almost 70-to-1.

I had Indian Oaks in a 20 cent super off of Beyer figs.  What triggered the horse under your system?

[Russ22]

Maiden claimers are in a lot ways picking the least slow of a bunch of slow horses.

The older speed / pace in equibase PP seem much better than the recent outings. The program weighs all available PP equally and runs a simulation based on random draws from the distributions of the horses in a race. Monte Carlo samples from outcomes and provides a outcome. A different seed to the program would have spun out a slightly different top 3.

[Russ22]

One thing to take into account is that this is more of a mathematical exercise for me rather than a wagering/gambling technique. I am trying out a model rather than trying to make money. The picks are free but I let people leave a tip if they score big.

I wrote a MC program to examine Texas Hold'em starting hands. I can share the results or the program if you send me a private message. I am not ready to share the handicapping program yet.