Arkansas Baseball resume and RPI

[Kevin]

today on bo's show:

kendall Rogers: I think Arkansas is a lock to host a regional right now. Even if they went 0-2 in Hoover, they'd be comfortable

[Kevin]

Teddy Cahill of baseball America during their afternoon chat:

Chris (Rogers, AR): Have the Hogs locked up a regional host bid with a series win over the weekend at Texas A&M?
Teddy Cahill: I think it's all but locked up for Arkansas. That was a big weekend for the Razorbacks and a lot would have to go wrong for them not to get a hosting spot now.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-baseball-rankings-chat-may-22a/#FMABGMKDkjvS9e9w.99

[dotnet]

today on bo's show:

kendall Rogers: I think Arkansas is a lock to host a regional right now. Even if they went 0-2 in Hoover, they'd be comfortable

I do not feel as confident... but its nice to hear

[JHicks3636]

Florida State moves up 2 spots in the RPI and drops us to 15 for the time being.

[bighog2255]

Down to 16. Losses by LTech, URI, UNO, and Mizz St dropped our SOS down to 42

[rzrbkman]

Missouri St. 2nd loss in a row, both to 8th seed Illinois St. has probably ended their host possibilities. Talk about rain delays, long tournament games, their game started at 11:00 last night and ended at 1:30, a 1-0 loss.

[Kevin]

southern miss just down one after losing to usta.
texas tech does not move after losing to ok state

[CJ HOG]

Still lots of potential for movement in the RPI as only .0068 separates 16th from 10th place. A win today would be huge in setting up a neutral field match-up with #3 Fla., bolstering our SOS and giving us an opportunity for arguably our biggest win of the season thus far. Let's make it happen. Go Hogs!

[CJ HOG]

southern miss just down one after losing to usta.
texas tech does not move after losing to ok state

I was surprised USM didn't fall further myself, not so much regarding TT whose resume is much stronger.

[CJ HOG]

Down to 16. Losses by LTech, URI, UNO, and Mizz St dropped our SOS down to 42

Doesn't help that Missouri, Vandy, UGA, and A&M(teams we went 9-3 against) have all lost while we've yet to play a game this week.

[Supermark101]

Still lots of potential for movement in the RPI as only .0068 separates 16th from 10th place. A win today would be huge in setting up a neutral field match-up with #3 Fla., bolstering our SOS and giving us an opportunity for arguably our biggest win of the season thus far. Let's make it happen. Go Hogs!

This is why I think we have ano outside shot at a national seed, if we win the SEC tournament. It does matter.

[jry04]

Doesn't help that Missouri, Vandy, UGA, and A&M(teams we went 9-3 against) have all lost while we've yet to play a game this week.

All but Vandy lost to teams we have played 3 games against, so they cancel each other out. Only Vandy's loss had a negative impact on our RPI.

[CJ HOG]

This is why I think we have ano outside shot at a national seed, if we win the SEC tournament. It does matter.

If we make a run to Sunday, and both Clemson & Stanford #$&@ the bed things could get interesting for sure. I think the top 6 or 7 seeds are set no matter what happens so the last spot or two has probably 5 or 6 teams vying for it. A tourney championship would go along way for any of them.

[bighog2255]

This is why I think we have ano outside shot at a national seed, if we win the SEC tournament. It does matter.

I really don't think so. I think 6 teams have locked one up (Oregon St, Louisville, Florida, UNC, TT, LSU), and TCU, UK, and Stanford fight for those last 2. Don't see how we could improve our resume that much to jump those teams.

[onebadrubi]

If we make a run to Sunday, and both Clemson & Stanford #$&@ the bed things could get interesting for sure. I think the top 6 or 7 seeds are set no matter what happens so the last spot or two has probably 5 or 6 teams vying for it. A tourney championship would go along way for any of them.

The national scene really likes Kentucky for that last national seed spot, in my opinion.

[CJ HOG]

All but Vandy lost to teams we have played 3 games against, so they cancel each other out. Only Vandy's loss had a negative impact on our RPI.

I agree some were a wash(UGA vs MSU and Mizz vs A&M).  However, team's we beat losing to team's that beat us or that we did not play as well as teams we  lost to losing to teams we haven't played affects our RPI negatively and has occurred 3 times already.

If I'm wrong I may not understand the rpi as well as I thought I did and I apologize.

[jry04]

I agree some were a wash(UGA vs MSU and Mizz vs A&M).  However, team's we beat losing to team's that beat us or that we did not play as well as teams we  lost to losing to teams we haven't played affects our RPI negatively and has occurred 3 times already.

If I'm wrong I may not understand the rpi as well as I thought I did and I apologize.

It all has to do with winning %. If a team we played plays another team we played, it does not have an impact on our RPI regardless of outcome. Missouri losing to LSU means nothing, because we played them both 3 times. One opponent gets credited for 3 wins on our schedule, and one opponent gets credited for 3 losses on our schedule. Missouri lost and we played them 3 times, so each time we played them counts as an individual opponent so it is like 3 losses is added to our opponents winning %. On the flip side, LSU add 3 wins to our opponent's win % so the 3 losses by Missouri cancel the 3 wins by LSU.

The games that hurt us were Memphis is 1-1 in their tournament, Missouri State lost, Rhode Island lost, Vandy lost, Louisiana Tech lost, and Auburn lost all to teams that are not on our schedule.


Here is the makeup of the formula from the NCAA website.
Division I winning percentage (25 percent of the RPI)
Opponent's Division I winning percentage (50 percent of the RPI)
Opponents' Opponents' Division I winning percentage (25 percent of the RPI)

[CJ HOG]

The national scene really likes Kentucky for that last national seed spot, in my opinion.

I think TCU & UK are both in the driver's seat for the last two spots as well. They are not already locked up yet like the other 6 though imo. With a couple more wins or the right teams losing it will probably sew them on up.

I just want the Hogs to lock down hosting and avoid being paired with OSU, UNC, or TT and I'll be satisfied with this week.

[bighog2255]

Down to 18 after the L this morning. Hopefully back up to about 16 with a win tonight

[jry04]

Louisiana Tech just lost to USM, and Missouri is likely about to lose to USC. That will add 5 losses to our opponent's, likely dropping us a spot or two in the RPI. Then, you throw in the fact that Missouri could potentially fall out of the top 50, that would remove 2 top 50 wins from our total. At the start of the day we have 15 top 50 wins and a RPI at 16. Lose tonight and we are likely sitting at 21 or 22 in the RPI with 13 top 50 wins.


The good news for us is OU is about to go 0-2 in their tournament. We should root for Cal State Fullerton to upset Long Beach State this weekend. We should also root for MSU to not beat UF, WVU to lose to Oklahoma State, and Texas to lose to Kansas. None of those teams may be relevant now, but more cushion we are given the more comfortable I will be if we lose to Auburn. Win and this post is irrelevant, though.

[CJ HOG]

I think LBS is probably hosting regardless. None of the others outside of MSU running the table worry me at all. I'm more concerned with how FSU and Ariz. finish up. FSU's .500 conference record hopefully keeps them from getting in the mix.

[TikiHog]

Louisiana Tech just lost to USM, and Missouri is likely about to lose to USC. That will add 5 losses to our opponent's, likely dropping us a spot or two in the RPI. Then, you throw in the fact that Missouri could potentially fall out of the top 50, that would remove 2 top 50 wins from our total. At the start of the day we have 15 top 50 wins and a RPI at 16. Lose tonight and we are likely sitting at 21 or 22 in the RPI with 13 top 50 wins.


The good news for us is OU is about to go 0-2 in their tournament. We should root for Cal State Fullerton to upset Long Beach State this weekend. We should also root for MSU to not beat UF, WVU to lose to Oklahoma State, and Texas to lose to Kansas. None of those teams may be relevant now, but more cushion we are given the more comfortable I will be if we lose to Auburn. Win and this post is irrelevant, though.

I agree with Texas if they win the Big12 I think they'll get a host spot...that would give them 27 top 100 wins and as we speak they have a 7 SOS

[razCzar]

UPDATE:  After Aubie rout, Hogs slide into 15th spot - up from pre-game #18.

[jry04]

UPDATE:  After Aubie rout, Hogs slide into 15th spot - up from pre-game #18.

Sitting pretty now. LSU winning may move us one more spot. Win tomorrow and we are probably around 12th. Lose and we are no worse than 18.

[razCzar]

After 9-2 win over MSU:
  #13 RPI
  #13 ranked
  12th best D1 record [41-16]

So proud of this team!

[Bogghawg]

Theoretically. as our RPI improves, is the regional we will host paired with  a lower seeded super regional host, like 1-16. 4-13, 7-10, etc.?

[BroyledNutts]

Theoretically. as our RPI improves, is the regional we will host paired with  a lower seeded super regional host, like 1-16. 4-13, 7-10, etc.?

Not necessarily ... after the host sites are announced, the pairings generally are made based on locality, and less on bracketology, with the exception being usually the top 2 seeds get two lesser regional hosts...and it's not that after the top 8, 9-16 are actually seeded 9-16 - they are just the selected host sites for at large regionals.

[JHicks3636]

RPI presently sits at 12

[jry04]

RPI presently sits at 12

If USM loses tonight we will jump them. FSU will play the winner of Miami/UNC tomorrow. If they lose that game, then we will be sitting at 10th going into our game with #7 RPI LSU. Our SOS is also up to 35th. It was 39th before the game started. I posted in the game thread, but we have a better SOS than  4 of the top 10 RPI teams, and we have more RPI top 50 wins than 6 of them.

[Hogwild]

Theoretically. as our RPI improves, is the regional we will host paired with  a lower seeded super regional host, like 1-16. 4-13, 7-10, etc.?

No they only seed the top 8.  Paired up geographically, most likely we will be paired up with  TCU or Texas Tech.

[jry04]

No they only seed the top 8.  Paired up geographically, most likely we will be paired up with  TCU or Texas Tech.

I will be shocked if it isn't TCU. There really isn't anyone else that makes sense for TCU. The only way I can see us going to TTU is if Arizona doesn't host. Arizona and TTU are a lock to be paired together AZ hosts.

[TikiHog]

SHSU 3 C Arkansas 0 in the 3rd...if C Arkansas comes back and wins could they be the 4 seed at Baum

[Hogwild]

I will be shocked if it isn't TCU. There really isn't anyone else that makes sense for TCU. The only way I can see us going to TTU is if Arizona doesn't host. Arizona and TTU are a lock to be paired together AZ hosts.

so what team from the Big 12 do you think is coming to Fayetteville, Texas or Baylor?

[jry04]

SHSU 3 C Arkansas 0 in the 3rd...if C Arkansas comes back and wins could they be the 4 seed at Baum

Rooting for it to happen. Would be one of the easier 4 seeds in the tournament. If it doesn't happen then we probably get a pretty tough matchup with Oral Roberts. If Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 tourney, which is very possible, we are probably going to have ORU, OSU, and Missouri State as our regional.

[TikiHog]

If Texas wins the Big 12 they might be a host...I would prefer Baylor

[jry04]

so what team from the Big 12 do you think is coming to Fayetteville, Texas or Baylor?

Oklahoma State if they win the Big 12 tournament.

The problem with sending Texas or Baylor here is they are likely a 2 seed type resume. Missouri State is likely our 2 seed, so if they send Texas here as a 3 we will essentially have two 2 seeds in our regional just to accommodate the geography of the bracket.


Texas is currently 36-21, #19 in RPI, #4 SOS, and 17 top 50 wins. They are up on TCU right now. If they win that, they will be in the top 16 of the RPI. Baylor and Texas should be the 2 seeds in LSU and Arizona, in my opinion. We get Missouri State as our 2, and then Oklahoma or Oklahoma State (if they make it) as our 3 imo. OU went from potential host to potential 3 seed with their last 2-3 weeks. They are now 25th in the RPI, 25 SOS, 11 top 50 wins, and losers of 5 of their last 7. Finished just 1 game above .500 in the Big 12, but is riding a 5 game losing streak into the tournament.

[BroyledNutts]

Hey jry - if you have watched OSU at all recently, how do they match up with us now compared to our matchup in Frisco?

[jry04]

Hey jry - if you have watched OSU at all recently, how do they match up with us now compared to our matchup in Frisco?

I watched both of their games v OU last week and watched a game in the big 12 tourney. Those are the only 3 games I have seen since they played us, but I have followed their season just because we played them and it benefits the RPI some. They really are not very good. They had a lot of injuries all season, so that played a factor. They had lost 6 straight, and 7 of their last 8 entering their final week v OU. They had to take 2 from OU in the final week to even make the Big 12 tournament, and ended up winning both. They hit in the .260s as a team, and not a lot of HRs. Their starters have pretty bad numbers, but have done better in the last 2 weeks. All 3 of their weekend starters have over a 4.00 ERA, with one allowing opponents to hit almost .300 v him. The starter they threw v us, Jensen Elliot, is done for the season. We had opportunities in that game, but couldn't capitalize. If you remember, we also threw Alberius v them. I think we can all agree as good as Alberius has been for us at times, he doesn't have starter stuff this year.


Honestly, I think OSU would be one of the weakest 3 seeds in the NCAAT. ORU, however, would be one of the strongest 4 seeds if they get a 4 seed. They hit in the .290s with 60+ HRs, and their ace has a 1.60 ERA. Their schedule is pretty awful, so it is hard to judge how good their pitchers really are, but they did beat OSU, OU, Missouri State, Dallas Baptist, and Alabama already this year.

[jry04]

Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitt of D1 baseball both just said if we win tomorrow we will be in the discussion for the 8th national seed. They said it will come down to us, Stanford, UK, and Southern Miss for 1 spot.

[rljjr]

Baseball gurus, can anyone explain why Clemson is still 13 in the RPI according to Warren Nolan? They are 5-11 in their last 16 games and 3-7 in their last 10, including an 0 and 2 effort in the ACC tourney, one of which was against #90 RPI Duke.
Yes, I know they've fallen 4 spots, but what is the rationale for them not falling further?

[CJ HOG]

Baseball gurus, can anyone explain why Clemson is still 13 in the RPI according to Warren Nolan? They are 5-11 in their last 16 games and 3-7 in their last 10, including an 0 and 2 effort in the ACC tourney, one of which was against #90 RPI Duke.
Yes, I know they've fallen 4 spots, but what is the rationale for them not falling further?

I'm no guru, but I'd start by saying that the rpi isn't an exact science by any means. Also, late in the year the per game movements (delta) are not as large as the data sets expand. Clemson also had quite a bit of hay in the barn so to speak prior to this stretch run.

A month ago they were as high as #2 before losing 3 @UNC(#2 rpi), 3 vs Louisville(#5 rpi), and 2 @NCST(#30 rpi). None of those losses are necessarily rpi killers especially if you have almost 40 wins.  If it makes you feel any better, they may have blown their chance to host with that late season skid.

[jry04]

Baseball gurus, can anyone explain why Clemson is still 13 in the RPI according to Warren Nolan? They are 5-11 in their last 16 games and 3-7 in their last 10, including an 0 and 2 effort in the ACC tourney, one of which was against #90 RPI Duke.
Yes, I know they've fallen 4 spots, but what is the rationale for them not falling further?

It isn't just about who you lose to. It is how your schedule does, too. They may drop 10 spots in a day for losing to a bad team, but former opponents win games pushing them up 5-6 spots, so they appear to only fall 4 spots because of that loss when in reality they dropped more but gained some back due to a good schedule performance. Also, who they have played weren't bad teams and most were road or neutral site games, except for their home series loss to top 5 Louisville. Winning a game @ Furman and @ NC State cancel out a few of those losses.

[Kevin]

12 right now

[tennesseehogwild]

My take is: the #8 seed  will come down to  Stanford, So Miss, Kentucky. Even with a win today I think Hogs will get a 9-11 range seed. Which is cool.

[WhenPigsFly]

My take is: the #8 seed  will come down to  Stanford, So Miss, Kentucky. Even with a win today I think Hogs will get a 9-11 range seed. Which is cool.

Just to clarify, there are no seeds after the first 8.

[rzrbkman]

If Illinois st. beats Dallas Baptist for the Missouri Valley Championship today and steals a bid will it be Missouri St. that gets left out? Eighth seed Illinois St. has beat top seed Missouri St. 3 times in 9 days.

[WhenPigsFly]

If Illinois st. beats Dallas Baptist for the Missouri Valley Championship today and steals a bid will it be Missouri St. that gets left out? Eighth seed Illinois St. has beat top seed Missouri St. 3 times in 9 days.

I would think they are still in, although rpi has dropped to 30.  Just do not want them sent to our Regional.  Not afraid of them, just rather see some different teams come in.

[rzrbkman]

I would think they are still in, although rip has dropped to 30.  Just do not want them sent to our Regional.  Not afraid of them, just rather see some different teams come in.

Missouri Sts. good senior closer got hurt Friday night and might be out for a while and they lost their solid senior 2nd baseman for the year about a month ago. Their message board fans have been beside themselves over how bad the catching situation is.

Rice just stole a bid by winning their conference championship.

[southarkhog06]

Missouri Sts. good senior closer got hurt Friday night and might be out for a while and they lost their solid senior 2nd baseman for the year about a month ago. Their message board fans have been beside themselves over how bad the catching situation is.

Rice just stole a bid by winning their conference championship.

I wouldn't mind seeing rice as our 4 seed.
Would be much better than ORU.

[CJ HOG]

Okla. St. stole a bid winning the Big 12 tourney and probably ends up as a #3 seed in Fayetteville.