Trying to add some Rationale for our Coaching Search

[WilsonHog]

Can we agree that the money is pretty much equal, in terms of what SEC schools can pay? Ole Miss paid Freeze $4.7 million a year, Florida paid McElwain $4.2 million a year, and Tennessee paid Jones $4.1 million a year. Sumlin is making $5 million a year at A&M, and we're paying Bielema around $4.1 million a year. Malzahn is making around $4.7 at Auburn. The point is, one school is really not going to outbid another for a coach's services.

Let's take the three schools with a current opening and two more reasonably expected to have one - Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M - and ask two questions:

(a) Which schools are easier to recruit to?
(b) Which schools are easier to win at?

On the first question, I would rank them this way:

(1) Florida
(2) Texas A&M
(3) Tennessee
(4) Arkansas
(5) Ole Miss (only because of the impending sanctions; Oxford lies in the middle of a much more fertile recruiting area than Fayetteville does).

On the second question, I'd go this way:

(1) Florida
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Arkansas
(5) Ole Miss

So, if you are a guy like Matt Campbell, whose stock has rocketed up the charts this year, what justification is there for coming to Arkansas when the money is relatively equal and there are better jobs available? You could also insert the names of Chip Kelly, Dan Mullen, Lane Kiffin, and Chad Morris and make the same statement. Plus, none of those current coaches are in any kind of trouble at their schools.

That brings to the table the intangibles of Fayetteville, Arkansas just being the place a coach and his family want to be. Money is equal, there are better jobs, but Arkansas is home.

The job isn't going to a current assistant coach, so that leaves Barry Lunney, Jr. and Tim Horton out; I don't see it going to a coach late in his career (time has passed Butch Davis and Tommy Tuberville by, I think). That leaves three men:

(1) Gus Malzahn
(2) Mike Norvell
(3) Charlie Strong 

[Ex-Trumpet]

I'm still not convinced CBB is gone...if he wins out we may be stuck with him another year.

[DoubleReedHawgCaller]

I would add Leach and Mullen to that list.

[WilsonHog]

I would add Leach and Mullen to that list.

Why would either come to Fayetteville over Florida or Tennessee?

[grayhawg]

Mike Norvell
Gus
Strong, because of the job he did at Texas

My opinion FWIW

[Hoggie17]

I would ask one other question:  Which school will allow you the time to get your system in place.   Arkansas would be the school.

[elksnort]

Very good breakdown.

Maybe Hermans or the Catfish hole could be the game changers though?

And all seriousness, your breakdown is very reasonable and accurate, I think.

[007 License To Squeal]

I'm still not convinced CBB is gone...if he wins out we may be stuck with him another year.

He's gone....book it!

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Why would either come to Fayetteville over Florida or Tennessee?

Less stress with more reasonable expectations.

[elksnort]

Why would either come to Fayetteville over Florida or Tennessee?

The only contrary thing I can say to your post, is that maybe because Arkansas is less of a pressure cooker than those above them, create a draw for the same coach.

Of course, coaches at this level surely have egos and are very competitive.

[Karma]

Why would either come to Fayetteville over Florida or Tennessee?

I don't think Leach could get hired at Florida or Tennessee, so Arkansas might be the best job he can get.

Good OP. I know you love a coaching search, and you've brought some good info lately.

[elksnort]

I would ask one other question:  Which school will allow you the time to get your system in place.   Arkansas would be the school.

You said this better than I did. I think we all can agree with this.

[Razorbackers]

Can we agree that the money is pretty much equal, in terms of what SEC schools can pay? Ole Miss paid Freeze $4.7 million a year, Florida paid McElwain $4.2 million a year, and Tennessee paid Jones $4.1 million a year. Sumlin is making $5 million a year at A&M, and we're paying Bielema around $4.1 million a year. Malzahn is making around $4.7 at Auburn. The point is, one school is really not going to outbid another for a coach's services.

Let's take the three schools with a current opening and two more reasonably expected to have one - Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M - and ask two questions:

(a) Which schools are easier to recruit to?
(b) Which schools are easier to win at?

On the first question, I would rank them this way:

(1) Florida
(2) Texas A&M
(3) Tennessee
(4) Arkansas
(5) Ole Miss (only because of the impending sanctions; Oxford lies in the middle of a much more fertile recruiting area than Fayetteville does).

On the second question, I'd go this way:

(1) Florida
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Arkansas
(5) Ole Miss

So, if you are a guy like Matt Campbell, whose stock has rocketed up the charts this year, what justification is there for coming to Arkansas when the money is relatively equal and there are better jobs available? You could also insert the names of Chip Kelly, Dan Mullen, Lane Kiffin, and Chad Morris and make the same statement. Plus, none of those current coaches are in any kind of trouble at their schools.

That brings to the table the intangibles of Fayetteville, Arkansas just being the place a coach and his family want to be. Money is equal, there are better jobs, but Arkansas is home.

The job isn't going to a current assistant coach, so that leaves Barry Lunney, Jr. and Tim Horton out; I don't see it going to a coach late in his career (time has passed Butch Davis and Tommy Tuberville by, I think). That leaves three men:

(1) Gus Malzahn
(2) Mike Norvell
(3) Charlie Strong

I agree with pretty much everything you just said. Great post. Personally, I'd rather have Norvell, and I don't think Gus is an option. I'd take Charley in a heartbeat tho.

I will add, I think one of the things that make Arkansas more appealing to potential coaches is Jeff Long and our athletic department.

Florida is a great school and is on the bottom end of the tier 1 football schools. Prime recruiting, top notch facilities, great weather. But they also just fired a coach who won the east twice. And Muschamp is doing way better at a lesser program than he did at Florida. With expectations that high, you could be setting yourself up for a bad time. It's obvious that the problems at Florida (similar to Texas now) run deeper than the current coach.

Tennessee is also a high expectations job, with less of the perks of Florida. Sure, historically, Tenn > Florida imo. But right now? Woof. Tennesee has tier 1 expectations with a currently tier 2 program. Not to mention, if your name isn't Jon Gruden, then you'll be walking into a somewhat hostile situation from the jump. Kiffin, Dooley, Jones, then who? 4 coaches in less than a decade. It's a lot to walk into.

One of the BIGGEST reasons that we haven't fired Bret yet is because we aren't Florida and Tennessee. We don't have all the perks of in state recruiting and location that they have. What we CAN offer, is a place to succeed, with support from the department, a nice paycheck, and less pressure from your bosses. If fans had their way, Bret would have been gone after USC-E this year. What kind of message would that send for our coaching search?

"Hey, come to Arkansas! We will fire you midseason despite being a middle of the pack team in a cutthroat division."

Bret is gone. If he's not, then I'll be as furious as everyone else. And, assuming he is fired, the coaching search has already started. It probably started several weeks ago. These other schools don't have an advantage over us by firing their coach midseason. I think a lot of folks on here (not OP) need to take a breath. This season stinks. Stinks like a butt. But firing Bielema now doesn't get us anywhere closer to a good hire.

[Razorbackers]

Very good breakdown.

Maybe Hermans or the Catfish hole could be the game changers though?

And all seriousness, your breakdown is very reasonable and accurate, I think.

We had Hermans on HC weekend.

Just insanely good steaks and ribs. Sides could use some work. But the meat is perfect every time.

[Dropkick]

I don't know if its a pipe dream but Gruden to Tennessee would probably help our prospects a little.

Gus may be winning himself out of the equation.

Norvell is a gamble but I believe it is worth the risk.

[DLUXHOG]

This is simply irrelevant as $$$ talk.  Everyone had a price....  and to my knowledge, there is no limit to what a coaching staff can be paid...

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Florida just fired a guy after back to back Eastern Division Championships. Why would you want any part of that atmosphere when you can make the same money somewhere else that is closer to reality.

[Razorbackers]

I don't know if its a pipe dream but Gruden to Tennessee would probably help our prospects a little.

Gus may be winning himself out of the equation.

Norvell is a gamble but I believe it is worth the risk.

Gus isn't an option in my mind. They'd be dumb as heck to get rid of him.

[HF#1]

Gus is your proverbial home run and now unrealistic. Norvell is a good hire but I think the jump from AAC to SEC could prove to be too much. I have questions about the defensive side of the football.

Charlie Strong is tough to read. Had success at Louisville but nothing at Texas.

Between the three I'd say Charlie is probably the best candidate. 

[elksnort]

We had Hermans on HC weekend.

Just insanely good steaks and ribs. Sides could use some work. But the meat is perfect every time.

Yeah, I have only been there a few times. I like some green beans or something green with all that meat though.

By the way, you made an excellent post also. You made a great case for why Arkansas should not fire in the middle of the season. Frankly, I wanted his ass gone after USCe. Your reasoning makes sense.

We all just want hope.

[DoubleReedHawgCaller]

Why would either come to Fayetteville over Florida or Tennessee?

Why would Gus? He would be a damn fool to leave auburn for here. If we're going to throw Gus name out there as a possibility why not Mullen or leach? Fayetteville is 10 times the place as Starkville is.

[jgcat4]

Trying to add rationale? To Hogville? It must be the end...

[RazorPiggie]

Florida just fired a guy after back to back Eastern Division Championships. Why would you want any part of that atmosphere when you can make the same money somewhere else that is closer to reality.

I think they fired him because he couldn't field an offense for some weird reason.

[jmark]

then you have the coaches that would take any sec job. 
1.  les miles, jeffs friend.
2.  the dork, would beg like a dog

then you have the coaches trying to get back to a p5 job. 
1.  lane kiffin, sanitation name recognition, and son of franks exp'rt

[WilsonHog]

Why would Gus? He would be a damn fool to leave auburn for here. If we're going to throw Gus name out there as a possibility why not Mullen or leach? Fayetteville is 10 times the place as Starkville is.

Here is the argument I would make.

At Auburn, Gus lives in Saban's shadow 24/7/365. He will never be the man in Alabama as long as Saban is around, and even after Nick retires he still has to deal with a split state. The tradition and history of the Crimson Tide never goes away.

He has been at Auburn five years, and one week ago the word was that he would be fired if he lost to both Georgia and Alabama. Once that talk starts, it rarely goes away. If he loses to Alabama, his seat starts to warm again. By contrast, he could take the Arkansas job and very likely retire here in 10 years. Family nearby, friends nearby, less pressure, less stress, and a state full of high school coaches who think he (and Tim Horton) are the greatest thing since sliced bread.

At this juncture, I don't think the question is "why would he;" I think it's "why wouldn't he?"

[HF#1]

Here is the argument I would make.

At Auburn, Gus lives in Saban's shadow 24/7/365. He will never be the man in Alabama as long as Saban is around, and even after Nick retires he still has to deal with a split state. The tradition and history of the Crimson Tide never goes away.

He has been at Auburn five years, and one week ago the word was that he would be fired if he lost to both Georgia and Alabama. Once that talk starts, it rarely goes away. If he loses to Alabama, his seat starts to warm again. By contrast, he could take the Arkansas job and very likely retire here in 10 years. Family nearby, friends nearby, less pressure, less stress, and a state full of high school coaches who think he (and Tim Horton) are the greatest thing since sliced bread.

At this juncture, I don't think the question is :why would he;" I think it's "why wouldn't he?"

He wouldn't because at Auburn he can be in the conversation for the playoff more often like he is this year. At some point Arkansas fans have to accept that Auburn is, was, and always will be a better job.  You don't leave Auburn for Arkansas when you are having success. If he does, I would question his judgement.

[Razorbackers]

Yeah, I have only been there a few times. I like some green beans or something green with all that meat though.

By the way, you made an excellent post also. You made a great case for why Arkansas should not fire in the middle of the season. Frankly, I wanted his ass gone after USCe. Your reasoning makes sense.

We all just want hope.

I got the salad, a ribeye with potatoes, and a bunch of us went in on a rack of baby backs to split. It is a ribhouse, after all!

And thanks. After TAMU this year I was pretty upset, but the USCE game was the nail in the coffin for me as well. No real excuse to play that poorly. 2 more games and then he's gone (hopefully) and we're bringing in a new coach before the new year (hopefully).

[riccoar]

Malzahn and Norvell should be the first two and only options we make.  No way to Strong.  If you can't win at Texas, you simply are not ready for major D-1 Head Coaching.

[Razorbackers]

Malzahn and Norvell should be the first two and only options we make.  No way to Strong.  If you can't win at Texas, you simply are not ready for major D-1 Head Coaching.

That's what they said about Muschamp and Florida. Maybe the problems at Texas run deeper than the HC.

[ipigsooie]

That's what they said about Muschamp and Florida. Maybe the problems at Texas run deeper than the HC.

Muschamp went 11-2 his second year at florida. Dont buy him at sc just yet.

[ricepig]

We had Hermans on HC weekend.

Just insanely good steaks and ribs. Sides could use some work. But the meat is perfect every time.

Hmm, last time we ate there after a game the ribs were dry, like Sahara. However, I ordered a full slab and it could have fed a family of 4 for a week. The others had steaks, and they were good.

[Hoggie17]

Here is the argument I would make.

At Auburn, Gus lives in Saban's shadow 24/7/365. He will never be the man in Alabama as long as Saban is around, and even after Nick retires he still has to deal with a split state. The tradition and history of the Crimson Tide never goes away.

He has been at Auburn five years, and one week ago the word was that he would be fired if he lost to both Georgia and Alabama. Once that talk starts, it rarely goes away. If he loses to Alabama, his seat starts to warm again. By contrast, he could take the Arkansas job and very likely retire here in 10 years. Family nearby, friends nearby, less pressure, less stress, and a state full of high school coaches who think he (and Tim Horton) are the greatest thing since sliced bread.

At this juncture, I don't think the question is "why would he;" I think it's "why wouldn't he?"

This

[Mr. Porkleone]

Wilson

I know what I've heard. In your opinion. Scale is of 1-10 on his being head coach.

[riccoar]

That's what they said about Muschamp and Florida. Maybe the problems at Texas run deeper than the HC.

No, they don't.  Strong simply falls into the "meant to be an assistant" mold.  Same as Ogeron at LSU.

[thebignasty]

Why would either come to Fayetteville over Florida or Tennessee?

They are guaranteed to get those jobs?

Case in point,  sounds like Florida is making a run at Kelly.  Don't see why you don't try for a guy like that just because other jobs are open too.

[Razorbackers]

No, they don't.  Strong simply falls into the "meant to be an assistant" mold.  Same as Ogeron at LSU.

Except his time at Louisville was super successful.

[riccoar]

Except his time at Louisville was super successful.

Louisville could never be compared to Texas.  With the recruiting classes brought in prior to Strong, no way Texas should have posted 3 losing seasons.

[Razorbackers]

Louisville could never be compared to Texas.  With the recruiting classes brought in prior to Strong, no way Texas should have posted 3 losing seasons.

Strong also signed great classes at Texas.

https://n.rivals.com/news/rivals-top-50-recruiting-teams-of-the-past-five-years

The problems at Texas were deeper than Strong, is all I'm saying.

[Razorbackers]

Louisville could never be compared to Texas.  With the recruiting classes brought in prior to Strong, no way Texas should have posted 3 losing seasons.

Also, I'd say Louisville shouldn't be compared to Texas, sure...but I feel like it could be compared to Arkansas.

One former Louisville coach already had success here.

[WilsonHog]

Wilson

I know what I've heard. In your opinion. Scale is of 1-10 on his being head coach.

Hard to say, because we have two more weeks to go. Depends almost completely on him, I think.

Keep this in mind, though. The AD who brought Gus in is about to be shown the door.

[HF#1]

Louisville could never be compared to Texas.  With the recruiting classes brought in prior to Strong, no way Texas should have posted 3 losing seasons.

He had to ditch a lot of those guys if you remember.

[rzrbackhogfan]

Can we agree that the money is pretty much equal, in terms of what SEC schools can pay? Ole Miss paid Freeze $4.7 million a year, Florida paid McElwain $4.2 million a year, and Tennessee paid Jones $4.1 million a year. Sumlin is making $5 million a year at A&M, and we're paying Bielema around $4.1 million a year. Malzahn is making around $4.7 at Auburn. The point is, one school is really not going to outbid another for a coach's services.

Let's take the three schools with a current opening and two more reasonably expected to have one - Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M - and ask two questions:

(a) Which schools are easier to recruit to?
(b) Which schools are easier to win at?

On the first question, I would rank them this way:

(1) Florida
(2) Texas A&M
(3) Tennessee
(4) Arkansas
(5) Ole Miss (only because of the impending sanctions; Oxford lies in the middle of a much more fertile recruiting area than Fayetteville does).

On the second question, I'd go this way:

(1) Florida
(2) Tennessee
(3) Texas A&M
(4) Arkansas
(5) Ole Miss

So, if you are a guy like Matt Campbell, whose stock has rocketed up the charts this year, what justification is there for coming to Arkansas when the money is relatively equal and there are better jobs available? You could also insert the names of Chip Kelly, Dan Mullen, Lane Kiffin, and Chad Morris and make the same statement. Plus, none of those current coaches are in any kind of trouble at their schools.

That brings to the table the intangibles of Fayetteville, Arkansas just being the place a coach and his family want to be. Money is equal, there are better jobs, but Arkansas is home.

The job isn't going to a current assistant coach, so that leaves Barry Lunney, Jr. and Tim Horton out; I don't see it going to a coach late in his career (time has passed Butch Davis and Tommy Tuberville by, I think). That leaves three men:

(1) Gus Malzahn
(2) Mike Norvell
(3) Charlie Strong

Flaw in this is FL hasn't been the easiest to recruit, win, or keep your Job at.  Since Spurrier that have had
Ron Zook (2002 - 2004)
Charlie Strong (2004 interim)
Urban Myer (2005 - 2010)
Will Muscamp (2011 - 2014) SEC coach of the year 2012
DJ Dunkirk (2014 interim)
Jim Mcelwain (2015 - 2017) SEC coach of the year 2015
Randy Shannon (2017 interim)

TN easy to recruit to and win at???  I don't see it.  When was the last time they were nationally relevant?

ATM I agree they have gotten recruits but again easier to win at?  I disagree with this

[ur]

PTB want a HC with P5 experience. Look for them to take a hard look at Leach or another P5 HC over Norvell if Gus declines. I would rather have Norvell.

[rude1]

I guess another factor probably would the stability the job offered. You can win better at those other schools, but 8-4 seasons get you fired from all those jobs but Ar. and Ms. Even aTm believes they are a better school than that, even though there is no historical reference for them to believe this. So with the money being equal, how attractive is Arkansas when you throw in the fact that there will be more patience for you to win, and if you win 7-8 games a season and be competitive, you can stay as long as you like? Now if your goal is NC or bust as a coach, then Arkansas is not the place for said coach.

[Paul]

Except his time at Louisville was super successful.

except for having an affair with a booster's wife

[Razorbackers]

except for having an affair with a booster's wife

All I'm hearing is that he scored.

And I believe it's state law in Kentucky that if you're a HC at Louisville, no matter the sport, you have to cheat on your wife.

[colbs]

No, they don't.  Strong simply falls into the "meant to be an assistant" mold.  Same as Ogeron at LSU.

The guy rebuilt Louisville and had things rolling.  He is not meant to be an assistant.  Herman is a good coach and struggling early at Texas. 

[Ex-Trumpet]

No, they don't.  Strong simply falls into the "meant to be an assistant" mold.  Same as Ogeron at LSU.

You lump Strong in with Orgeron?  Strong's only shortcoming was a t UT--and he was never going to succeed there for a variety of reasons.

Jury is still out on Coach O.  He may turn out pretty good.  Or not.

[Oklahawg]

Wilson, a darkhorse (I'll withhold my others because they are not currently HC, which I think is a prerequisite): Mike Gundy.

Gundy, like Malzahn at Auburn, is always second fiddle to OU. He had a shot this year at OU and fell short. He has struggled with his primary booster, T. Boone Pickens. He looked the last time we had an opening. He has a kiddo at UA.

Checks the boxes - offensive minded, recruits TX well, tends to hire good assistants who coach up the 3-star recruits.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Why would either come to Fayetteville over Florida or Tennessee?

Or, why would Leach come to the SEC when he might be offered at UCLA in talent rich southern California? Less travel time to recruit and more time to explore Pirate history.