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What scares you the most of the problems facing the economy?

Started by ADAM_713, December 03, 2011, 05:17:48 pm

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ADAM_713

December 03, 2011, 05:17:48 pm
Taxes for me, and for many reasons. What say the rest of you?
Quote from: kingofdequeen on May 19, 2010, 11:42:38 am
true story...

i paid a stripper $5 to slap me in the face right after i bit down on a lime after a tequila shot.  twas EPIC.

ErieHog

December 03, 2011, 05:19:20 pm #1
Deficit spending in the short term,  government debt in the long term.     It isn't sustainable without inflationary issues, and our obsession with the government teat cannot last.

No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."
 

gunther

December 04, 2011, 08:07:00 pm #2
hyperinflation...

OldPoop

December 04, 2011, 09:23:35 pm #3
A total wipeout of all paper wealth. 

How could it happen?

No one really knows what will happen if the dollar is allowed to collapse, which could be part of the plan to reset the system and clear all debts.

Other possibilities, the coming high solar flair sun cycle in 2012 and 2013, an EMP, banskter/government decree, or one of the really nasty computer viruses that have recently been created in university labs and most likely also in several countries that really hate us.
We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens my act only by permission.   Ayn Rand

You get what you pay for.   You pay for zombies, you get all you want – and then some. 
Milton Friedman
"To say the government is the source of prosperity is like saying that the ticks are keeping the dog alive."  Jeff Tucker
Government attracts sociopaths the way an open bar attracts alcoholics.      Doug Casey
War - the government tells you who the bad guy is . . . . . Revolution - you figure it out for yourself.

snoblind

December 05, 2011, 08:49:14 am #4
Quote from: ErieHog on December 03, 2011, 05:19:20 pm
Deficit spending in the short term,  government debt in the long term.     It isn't sustainable without inflationary issues, and our obsession with the government teat cannot last.

^this^

HawgWild

December 05, 2011, 09:01:30 am #5
Stagflation. Can you say "Hello 1980s"?

Masshog

December 09, 2011, 04:08:01 pm #6
The velocity of money turning higher.... It would be good initially, but I don't think the Fed can withdraw the liquidity quickly enough to keep inflation in check. 6-7% is highly likely.  I think the next few months will show a cyclic turn higher with better news on the employment front and something like 2-3% growth before sinking again in Q3 or 4.

The wild card will be how the recession in Europe transmits to the EM. Given the backdrop domestic strength will likely be tentative and even small setbacks could terminate it. Bigger picture... It will continue to be a slog with the secular overhang of debt and reduced fiscal stimuli's providing stiff headwinds to growth.

After derisking portfolios in the early part of the year, I have been advocating for a slow but sure move to more risky assets again.  For equities...likely a wide but mostly positive trading range.

Of course, I am wrong a lot.
My feets hurt.

Masshog

December 09, 2011, 04:11:00 pm #7
I should also say that the unknowns are huge right now and there is plenty of room for things to go poorly.  Light on your feet is a great idea.
My feets hurt.

Masshog

December 09, 2011, 04:11:26 pm #8
What happened to the politics forum? 
My feets hurt.

irishman

December 09, 2011, 04:12:10 pm #9
Loss of manufacturing. Besides jobs it is also the largest determining factor military strength. It's our industrial economy that made us a world leader more than any other factor.

Ash

December 10, 2011, 09:51:01 am #10
What Mass said. Once velocity starts turning up if we don't pull supply quick we are going to have some very big problems.

I believe we are already experiencing high inflation. It will get a lot worse if the above scenario happens.



Of course I also believe that we are still in a recession since I follow the SGS inflation statistics and those tell me real GDP growth is negative.

SultanofSwine

December 13, 2011, 11:20:13 am #11
I am not scare

Silver Hog

December 13, 2011, 02:34:15 pm #12
That more and more people decide that working and paying taxes is for chumps, and they decide to try and take the lazy way out of going on the dole/benefits/SSDI, early retirement.
 

wilbur

December 15, 2011, 02:58:07 pm #13
Quote from: HawgWild on December 05, 2011, 09:01:30 am
Stagflation. Can you say "Hello 1980s"?

I think you mean 1970's and Jimmy Carter.  The misery index was created during the Carter administration. 
Last year, Planned Parent was responsible for "terminating" the lives of 90,000 black babies.  How many black babies did the Confederate flag kill?


Ineptocracy:

A system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

ErieHog

December 15, 2011, 02:59:51 pm #14
Quote from: Masshog on December 09, 2011, 04:11:26 pm
What happened to the politics forum? 

It's on vacation.  Steef and I have stolen Shag's credit card, as responsible members of the 99%, and are living it up in Mexico with the senoritas.     We thought we saw Shaggy, but it turns out it was only a donkey show.

No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

HognotinMemphis

December 15, 2011, 06:39:12 pm #15
I don't want you to agree with me because you're weak. I want you to agree with me because you know I'm right.
______________________
President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet. My promise is to help you and your family." - Mitt Romney

Hogger

January 01, 2012, 12:42:57 am #16
Quote from: Ash on December 10, 2011, 09:51:01 am
What Mass said. Once velocity starts turning up if we don't pull supply quick we are going to have some very big problems.

I believe we are already experiencing high inflation. It will get a lot worse if the above scenario happens.



Of course I also believe that we are still in a recession since I follow the SGS inflation statistics and those tell me real GDP growth is negative.

No so fast...

HawgWild

January 02, 2012, 09:16:36 am #17
Quote from: wilbur on December 15, 2011, 02:58:07 pm
I think you mean 1970's and Jimmy Carter.  The misery index was created during the Carter administration.

Nope, for me it was the early 1980s. The "misery index" factors in inflation and unemplyment rate. Unemployment was highest in the early 1980s. Interest rates were also at historic highs. I was a recent college graduate, married and looking for a good job and a home to buy. My banker quoted me a home loan rate of 18%. We ended up buying a home with an assumable loan rate of 12.5%. I can't imagine what rates like this would do to today's economy.

Ash

January 03, 2012, 09:45:50 am #18
Quote from: Hogger on January 01, 2012, 12:42:57 am
No so fast...

He picked a single product that has been pretty price-stable and extrapolated the entire graph from that. The gentleman that wrote that article completely forgot that when you measure inflation you use a basket of goods. All the shadowstats inflation figures do is use the old pre-Alan Greenspan method of measuring inflation (fixed basket; no geometric weighting of goods).

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/aa871

Hogger

January 03, 2012, 10:29:19 am #19
Quote from: Ash on January 03, 2012, 09:45:50 am
He picked a single product that has been pretty price-stable and extrapolated the entire graph from that. The gentleman that wrote that article completely forgot that when you measure inflation you use a basket of goods. All the shadowstats inflation figures do is use the old pre-Alan Greenspan method of measuring inflation (fixed basket; no geometric weighting of goods).

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/aa871

CPI biases

Hog on the Hill

January 04, 2012, 04:33:13 pm #20
If you believe inflation is ~10% and rising, why not go take out a bunch of loans with lower than 10% rates and become rich for free?

Ftsmithmike

January 06, 2012, 09:41:03 pm #21
Quote from: Hog on the Hill on January 04, 2012, 04:33:13 pm
If you believe inflation is ~10% and rising, why not go take out a bunch of loans with lower than 10% rates and become rich for free?

I'm trying.
"Here a question arises: whether it is better to be loved than feared, or the reverse. The answer is, of course, that it would be best to be both loved and feared. But since the two rarely come together, anyone compelled to choose will find greater security in being feared than in being loved."

OldPoop

January 07, 2012, 12:12:06 pm #22
Quote from: Hog on the Hill on January 04, 2012, 04:33:13 pm
If you believe inflation is ~10% and rising, why not go take out a bunch of loans with lower than 10% rates and become rich for free?

From what I've read that is one of the many successful scams run by the banksters.     They get hundreds of millions from the government at .1%, put it in government bonds that pay 2%, then repeat.   A hired lackey punching a few key strokes over and over, pure profit, and taxpayers get to pay for it.  Sweet deal, everyone that matters benefits.

Oh . . . . . you don't matter.
We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens my act only by permission.   Ayn Rand

You get what you pay for.   You pay for zombies, you get all you want – and then some. 
Milton Friedman
"To say the government is the source of prosperity is like saying that the ticks are keeping the dog alive."  Jeff Tucker
Government attracts sociopaths the way an open bar attracts alcoholics.      Doug Casey
War - the government tells you who the bad guy is . . . . . Revolution - you figure it out for yourself.

hawginbigd1

March 02, 2012, 01:10:24 pm #23
Republicans take over the federal government again and destroy our economy again. Like reagan/bush/bush did. Its really the fact that big business and the industrial military machine rule the country when the right is in control. They will kill, poison, deplete whatever they can to make a profit and not pay taxes regardless of the long-term ramifications
 

Masshog

March 02, 2012, 05:17:14 pm #24
Good lord.....
My feets hurt.

OldPoop

March 03, 2012, 06:32:00 pm #25
Quote from: hawginbigd1 on March 02, 2012, 01:10:24 pm
Republicans take over the federal government again and destroy our economy again. Like reagan/bush/bush did. Its really the fact that big business and the industrial military machine rule the country when the right is in control. They will kill, poison, deplete whatever they can to make a profit and not pay taxes regardless of the long-term ramifications

That's why I don't call myself a Republican anymore.

I used to think it was fun to poison the drinking water, poison the air, and poison the food supply.  There were few things more fun than poisoning and throwing old people out of their nursing homes and starving school children.   But after my wife, children, grandchildren and friends all died off from having nothing they could eat or drink or breathe, I started questioning the Official Republican Strategy.   Then after I died I decided enough was enough, and I became a Democrat.

My photo to the left was taken at my first Democrat $30,000 a plate fund raiser shortly after I joined the Party.  I finally felt at home because I was surrounded by people that looked just like me and talked just like you.

Keep up the fight brother.
We are fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where the government is free to do anything it pleases, while the citizens my act only by permission.   Ayn Rand

You get what you pay for.   You pay for zombies, you get all you want – and then some. 
Milton Friedman
"To say the government is the source of prosperity is like saying that the ticks are keeping the dog alive."  Jeff Tucker
Government attracts sociopaths the way an open bar attracts alcoholics.      Doug Casey
War - the government tells you who the bad guy is . . . . . Revolution - you figure it out for yourself.

Bigdavis

March 03, 2012, 10:54:46 pm #26
Hyperinflation. What would we do if a gallon of gas or a loaf of bread was
$30 almost overnight?

Ftsmithmike

March 04, 2012, 02:01:46 pm #27
Quote from: Bigdavis on March 03, 2012, 10:54:46 pm
Hyperinflation. What would we do if a gallon of gas or a loaf of bread was
$30 almost overnight?

As soon as the world goes to a basket currency this is coming.
"Here a question arises: whether it is better to be loved than feared, or the reverse. The answer is, of course, that it would be best to be both loved and feared. But since the two rarely come together, anyone compelled to choose will find greater security in being feared than in being loved."

IronHog

March 04, 2012, 02:05:52 pm #28
Quote from: Hog on the Hill on January 04, 2012, 04:33:13 pm
If you believe inflation is ~10% and rising, why not go take out a bunch of loans with lower than 10% rates and become rich for free?

Because current gov't policy will result in massive stagflation if anything.
Iron sharpens iron, So one man sharpens another.

Masshog

March 04, 2012, 02:54:27 pm #29
Quote from: IronHog on March 04, 2012, 02:05:52 pm
Because current gov't policy will result in massive stagflation if anything.
This....
My feets hurt.

Masshog

March 04, 2012, 02:55:35 pm #30
1-2% growth with a 5-7% inflation is one of my high likelihood outcomes.... 
My feets hurt.

snoblind

March 04, 2012, 06:09:28 pm #31
At least during the stagflation of the 70-80's one could earn a decent return (somewhat) by just keeping money in a bank.  Not so in today's manipulated markets.
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