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The Trey Flowers Dilemma

Started by Steef, June 26, 2016, 03:40:19 pm

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ricepig

Quote from: Oklahawg on June 28, 2016, 11:56:42 am
There are coaches who told me, thinking I approved, that they picked up a kid for a year to "burn him," allowing the coach to save his better pitchers from too many innings. He saw the pickup as "good enough to win." Horrible mentality.
My youngest played on his 8th grade league team. He hadn't played since 10, a couple of major ankle surgeries and prefers golf, anyway, due to injuries and lack of ability, he was our third pitcher. He never started a game, but probably threw as many innings as our top two. So, we come down to the end of year tournament, 3 games in 4 days. #1 goes two innings the first game, mine relieves him goes three as we run rule. Next game we play a better team, #2 goes 4 innings, mine goes 2. So, we come to the final game and #1 and #2's travel team coach tells them to tell our 8th grade coach their arm hurts and they can't pitch, travel tournament the next night. So, guess who pitches all 6 innings in the final, mine. He threw 154 pitches over the span. Of course, mine said he could go another 6 innings after that, that he doesn't throw hard enough for his arm to hurt, lol.

Wildhog

I used to have to take painkillers before and after games that I pitched.  My arm felt like it was going to fall right off.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

 

Deep Shoat

Quote from: Prestworthy on June 28, 2016, 08:01:36 am
anyone?
Tennessee has a big network of alumni from when they were a national player who keep sending their kids to Tennessee AND they are close to a lot of fertile football recruiting grounds.  Ole Miss pays players.  Penn State is in Pennsylvania, still one of the highest per capita recruiting areas in the country.  Michigan State ISN'T doing it.  They are doing the same thing we are.  Texas A&M?  Really?  They are in Texas.  SC?  Just north of Florida and east of Georgia.  Nebraska hasn't done any better than we do for over a decade.

It's either geography or money.  Or Notre Dame.  Everyone else is doing what we do, essentially.
All Gas, No Brakes!

Biggus Piggus

The only thing that has changed - THE ONLY THING:

Arkansas is getting quick commitments from players offered in the spring.

Nothing has changed about recruiting priorities, or effort level on 4-5 stars, or anything.

The surprise is getting so many kids who want to jump at the offer.
[CENSORED]!

ricepig

Quote from: Wildhog on June 28, 2016, 12:26:23 pm
I used to have to take painkillers before and after games that I pitched.  My arm felt like it was going to fall right off.

My oldest was the same, not painkillers, but 3 Tylenol or Aleve.

Deep Shoat

Quote from: Prestworthy on June 28, 2016, 08:06:21 am
The star system has basically predicted the first two rounds of the draft.  See for yourself.
Again, everyone and their dog can spot the elite talent. 

The star system is so fans will subscribe to "insider" recruiting "gurus".
All Gas, No Brakes!

Wildhog

Quote from: ricepig on June 28, 2016, 12:32:18 pm
My oldest was the same, not painkillers, but 3 Tylenol or Aleve.

Tylenol 3 or Aleve was my pre-game meal. 
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: ricepig on June 28, 2016, 12:32:18 pm
My oldest was the same, not painkillers, but 3 Tylenol or Aleve.

Holy hell, nobody should ever take three Tylenol, unless you don't want to have a liver much longer.
[CENSORED]!

ricepig

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on June 28, 2016, 12:49:18 pm
Holy hell, nobody should ever take three Tylenol, unless you don't want to have a liver much longer.

Don't believe everything you read, and since he just finished his MBA, I bet 5 years of college was harder on it, haha.

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: ricepig on June 28, 2016, 01:12:14 pm
Don't believe everything you read, and since he just finished his MBA, I bet 5 years of college was harder on it, haha.

Everything I read? My neurologist told me that. "Never take more than two Tylenol. It is hard on your liver. I've seen someone destroy his liver because he took too many Tylenol." Daniel Lonergan, interventional pain specialist, Vanderbilt Medical Center.

Don't be so quick to dismiss superior knowledge.
[CENSORED]!

ricepig

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on June 28, 2016, 01:47:11 pm
Everything I read? My neurologist told me that. "Never take more than two Tylenol. It is hard on your liver. I've seen someone destroy his liver because he took too many Tylenol." Daniel Lonergan, interventional pain specialist, Vanderbilt Medical Center.

Don't be so quick to dismiss superior knowledge.

My hepatologist said it was ok, but don't do it every time, UAMS.

Razorbackers

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on June 28, 2016, 01:47:11 pm

Don't be so quick to dismiss superior knowledge.

Um, we're on a message board.

Wahls

Quote from: ricepig on June 28, 2016, 12:22:32 pmSo, guess who pitches all 6 innings in the final, mine. He threw 154 pitches over the span. Of course, mine said he could go another 6 innings after that, that he doesn't throw hard enough for his arm to hurt, lol.

Same exact scenario happened to me. Threw in the neighborhood of 160 pitches in 4 days as the #3 on a summer team. I was 19 though, and I got a real good break after that because I haven't picked up a baseball since.
Quote from: A.Ziffle on April 20, 2012, 10:39:01 pm
You have two kinds of tough guys... those that do it from behind a keyboard, and those that juggle soap in prison just to show they're a fearless bastard.

 

ricepig

Quote from: Wahls on June 28, 2016, 02:20:10 pm
Same exact scenario happened to me. Threw in the neighborhood of 160 pitches in 4 days as the #3 on a summer team. I was 19 though, and I got a real good break after that because I haven't picked up a baseball since.

Well, mine said it was more than likely the last time he pitches, haha.

King Kong

June 28, 2016, 02:50:00 pm #114 Last Edit: June 28, 2016, 03:04:39 pm by King Kong
Quote from: Prestworthy on June 28, 2016, 09:13:18 am
I'll add more: UNC, Pitt, Cal, Baylor, Louisville, Texas Tech, Minnesota, Northwestern, UCF....

All near major cities or recruiting hotbeds.  Why didn't they recruit well?

Here's my point: Some schools know how to recruit and do it well.  Others just don't.  You can blame it on location, but that wouldn't explain how coaches can recruit to Columbia, SC or Lincoln, NE.

What? TT is 5 hours from Dallas. It's not really near any hotbeds. Baylor class last year was 17th. UCF isn't a P5 school I dont understand why they are mentioned.

Not sure of the hotbeds within 300 miles of Minnesota or Louisville. Northwestern is in a good recruiting area but there they also the 10 best P5 program in that area with high academic standards.

Großer Kriegschwein

How about we wait and see what their scores and *-rankings are after they play a few snaps of their senior season.
This is my non-signature signature.

GolfnHog

to the OP- we actually played Texas in the Texas Bowl and not the Cotton and after 3 pages of dissenting opinions I'll still stay the course and support the way CBB and his staff is recruiting. #theend
Have you ever listened to someone  or read what they put into thoughts and wondered...."who ties your shoelaces for you?"

Steef

Quote from: GolfnHog on June 28, 2016, 06:27:03 pm
to the OP- we actually played Texas in the Texas Bowl and not the Cotton and after 3 pages of dissenting opinions I'll still stay the course and support the way CBB and his staff is recruiting. #theend

Thanks for the correction.

Ditto.

Prestworthy

Quote from: ricepig on June 28, 2016, 09:49:11 am
Lubbock is near what hotbed, New Mexico? Baylor has just lost 5 4*, they've recruited well at times. SC has a lot more players than us, and is a lot closer to Georgia and Florida talent. The others are programs that aren't producing consistent results, pretty simple, actually.
Lubbock is in Texas, where high school football is king. Plenty of talent to choose from there. Baylor lost recruits because of a scandal. Pretty simple, actually. What's it like looking down on other people? Just curious.

ricepig

Quote from: Prestworthy on June 28, 2016, 07:09:31 pm
Lubbock is in Texas, where high school football is king. Plenty of talent to choose from there. Baylor lost recruits because of a scandal. Pretty simple, actually. What's it like looking down on other people? Just curious.

So, just being in the state is good enough, then FAU, FIU, UCF, and USF should all be top 10, along with Texas ST, UTEP, and Rice??

HOGINTENNESSEE

Quote from: Prestworthy on June 28, 2016, 07:09:31 pm
Lubbock is in Texas, where high school football is king. Plenty of talent to choose from there. Baylor lost recruits because of a scandal. Pretty simple, actually. What's it like looking down on other people? Just curious.

Lubbock is nowhere near were actual good football is played in Texas

Prestworthy

Quote from: ricepig on June 28, 2016, 07:16:51 pm
So, just being in the state is good enough, then FAU, FIU, UCF, and USF should all be top 10, along with Texas ST, UTEP, and Rice??
Big difference: you didn't list P5 schools in those states. You also didn't answer my question.

Prestworthy

Quote from: HOGINTENNESSEE on June 28, 2016, 08:41:54 pm
Lubbock is nowhere near were actual good football is played in Texas
This is simply not true.  Lubbock has good football, as well and Midland, Odessa, and Abilene not far off.  Also, Texas people love the state of Texas.  They truly believe Texas is inherently superior to every other state.  And with DFW only 4.5 hours away, that's like UT recruiting Nashville (distance-wise). 

ricepig

Quote from: Prestworthy on June 28, 2016, 08:49:21 pm
Big difference: you didn't list P5 schools in those states. You also didn't answer my question.

Lol, you move the goal posts all the time, and I didn't see any question.

 

Hawgar The Horrible

Quote from: Prestworthy on June 28, 2016, 08:53:16 pm
This is simply not true.  Lubbock has good football, as well and Midland, Odessa, and Abilene not far off.  Also, Texas people love the state of Texas.  They truly believe Texas is inherently superior to every other state.  And with DFW only 4.5 hours away, that's like UT recruiting Nashville (distance-wise).

Midland Lee (State Champs) thought they were superior to West Monroe years ago, but they learned differently quick, fast and in a hurry.

Texas HS football is all about money and notoriety. There is bound to be some "good" football played in a State large enough to be a Nation.
There are fans and there are supporters. The latter carries the weight.

Prestworthy

Quote from: Hawgar The Horrible on June 28, 2016, 09:45:46 pm
Midland Lee (State Champs) thought they were superior to West Monroe years ago, but they learned differently quick, fast and in a hurry.

Texas HS football is all about money and notoriety. There is bound to be some "good" football played in a State large enough to be a Nation.
Yeah, West Monroe is a great program.

HognitiveDissonance

Quote from: Hugo Bezdek on June 28, 2016, 08:35:46 am
I don't think anyone will argue that you can win consistently without talent. To me the question about star ratings is what comes first, the winning or the ratings. We've all seen it, Alabama or Texas offers a guy and his star ratings go up. Some guys are obvious talents, but most are a judgement call. Right now I'm willing to believe, based on his record of putting players in the NFL, that Coach B can identify and develop talent. If that's true then the wins will follow and the star givers will know that when Arkansas offers a player he must be high quality recruit. So far we've seen steady improvement in the win column year over year. The proof come with more wins.
While I think it's true that there are some biases there(if a certain school offers a guy his ranking might go up, stuff like that), by and large, I don't think that's prevalent. Humans are involved in these rankings, sure, so some shenanigans will go on, but I don't want to overplay that.

The reason Alabama is so good is not because of that, but because they 'truly' are signing many of the best players. Their players are not great just because their ranking got a bump because 'Bama offered them. Most of them are really that good.

Add to that talent the fact Saban is one of the best coaches around and you see what that perfect storm of talent and coaching produces.

HOGINTENNESSEE

Quote from: Prestworthy on June 28, 2016, 08:53:16 pm
This is simply not true.  Lubbock has good football, as well and Midland, Odessa, and Abilene not far off.  Also, Texas people love the state of Texas.  They truly believe Texas is inherently superior to every other state.  And with DFW only 4.5 hours away, that's like UT recruiting Nashville (distance-wise). 

Texas ppl don't consider Lubbock as part of TX. In fact it safe to say they don't consider them at all.


TNRazorbacker

Pointing after the fact to the 3 star example that ended up being a great player completely misses the point in this argument. It's the classic fallacy of finding miracles by looking the wrong way down the telescope.

I agree you can't judge any one player better than another based purely on a star rating. However you can say with a high level of confidence over time that 4 star rated players on the whole will be better than 3 star and yield better results as a consequence. This is a statistical assessment useful for making predictions over time and larger numbers. Again, not an approach for individual assessment.

Human beings have a hard time in general getting their heads around this. We are just bad at making statistical judgements. Evolution has fashioned us to value the anecdotal exception more personal to us over the mountain of examples we don't see first hand. This is especially true when we have a personal interest in the conclusion drawn from the individual example- such as here.

If you really want to see the reality of this proven more scientifically a great experiment would be to pick completely at random 100 4 stars and 100 3 stars prior to being recruited. Do this for 4 years worth of recruits and pick some objective measure(s) of success beforehand. You could do this retrospectively as well but you need to take extra care in using a truly random means of player selection. See which group yields better results.

Biggus Piggus

Quote from: TNRazorbacker on July 04, 2016, 09:19:53 am
If you really want to see the reality of this proven more scientifically a great experiment would be to pick completely at random 100 4 stars and 100 3 stars prior to being recruited. Do this for 4 years worth of recruits and pick some objective measure(s) of success beforehand. You could do this retrospectively as well but you need to take extra care in using a truly random means of player selection. See which group yields better results.

This is kinda nonsense.

The math you are doing is 4* recruit X probability of success > 3* recruit X probability of success.

This says nothing about the probability of any given set of 3* recruits' probability of success. Because each year, the members of each set are not only unique, but also the diligence behind their recruitnik ratings varies dramatically according to geographic area.

And this says nothing about the most important math:

4* recruit X probability of signing him X probability of success

is that greater than

3* recruit X probability of signing him X probability of success?

You can't TAKE 100 4* recruits the way you can take 100 3*'s. If they let you pick diamonds out of a bowl instead of mining them, great. Otherwise, bull.
[CENSORED]!

Steef

Travis Swanson. Detroit Lions. 3 star.
Chris Smith. Jacksonville Jags. 3 star.
Chris Gragg. Buffalo Bills. 3 star.
Martrell Spaight. Washington Redskins. 3 star.

Brandon Burlsworth. Walk on.

Dre Greenlaw. 3 star.
Dominique Reed. 3 star.
Henre' Toliver. 3 star.
Drew Morgan. 2 star.


Not unrelated....Bart Starr was drafted by Green Bay in the 17th round of the NFL draft.


This is not to say 3 stars are preferable to 4 or 5 stars. But 'stars' are not the only criteria.

Arkansas has never enjoyed top ten drafting status and may never. We don't have a wealth of in-State talent like some of our rivals.

But we DO have a coach and staff...NOW...who can pick good talent and COACH. A lot of the Green Bay team were guys nobody else wanted. The difference was Vince Lombardi.

Bret may not be Lombardi. But he's the best we have had in a while, at building up a complete program.

Hugo Bezdek

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on July 05, 2016, 07:57:44 pm
This is kinda nonsense.

The math you are doing is 4* recruit X probability of success > 3* recruit X probability of success.

This says nothing about the probability of any given set of 3* recruits' probability of success. Because each year, the members of each set are not only unique, but also the diligence behind their recruitnik ratings varies dramatically according to geographic area.

And this says nothing about the most important math:

4* recruit X probability of signing him X probability of success

is that greater than

3* recruit X probability of signing him X probability of success?

You can't TAKE 100 4* recruits the way you can take 100 3*'s. If they let you pick diamonds out of a bowl instead of mining them, great. Otherwise, bull.

There's a big difference between picking 3* at random from the pool of 3* rated athletes, and having a coach with a proven eye for NFL talent picking 3* from the pool. This whole debate is really about who do you trust more to rate talent, writers or coaches. We've had coaches that it might be a toss-up, but right now I'm willing to go with Coach B's evaluations over most. I suspect that after a few more wins at Arkansas, recruits will see star ratings bumped up after an offer from Bielema. And if not, I really don't care, as long as he's getting results.

Prestworthy

Quote from: Biggus Piggus on July 05, 2016, 07:57:44 pm
This is kinda nonsense.

The math you are doing is 4* recruit X probability of success > 3* recruit X probability of success.

This says nothing about the probability of any given set of 3* recruits' probability of success. Because each year, the members of each set are not only unique, but also the diligence behind their recruitnik ratings varies dramatically according to geographic area.

And this says nothing about the most important math:

4* recruit X probability of signing him X probability of success

is that greater than

3* recruit X probability of signing him X probability of success?

You can't TAKE 100 4* recruits the way you can take 100 3*'s. If they let you pick diamonds out of a bowl instead of mining them, great. Otherwise, bull.
Then take the top 100 4* recruits and the top 100 3* recruits and do the math.

lefty08

Quote from: Prestworthy on July 05, 2016, 09:21:58 pm
Then take the top 100 4* recruits and the top 100 3* recruits and do the math.

Would have to take a percentage of the 3*
Re: So far the UC press conference is hilarious   Reply
Losing gracefully isn't taught in second-tier programs. See Arkansas, Cincinnati, et al.
3/21 8:11 PM | IP: Logged

carolinahogger

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize that half of them are stupider than that."

-George Carlin

Pork Twain

Who has wasted more time, the dog that chased his tail for 5 minutes or the guy watching the entire time and thinking to himself how dumb the dog was for wasting five minutes of his life.  I say you all are, because both sides pick and choose what they believe.

Also, any medication taken in excess is bad for you, that is just common sense and you should not need a doctor for that.  Taking a few extra here and there are not going to kill you though, also common sense.

http://www.medicinenet.com/tylenol_liver_damage/article.htm
"It is better to be an optimist and proven wrong, than a pessimist and proven right." ~Pork Twain

https://www.facebook.com/groups/sweetmemes/

Grizzlyfan

When the Razorbacks win a National Championship, or the SEC championship, with their 3 star players, get back to me.  Just as TN said above, stars are an indicator of overall success, not individual success.

PorkSoda

Quote from: Adam Stokes on June 26, 2016, 03:59:39 pm

The stat the article should've mentioned to make it better is this one. Percent of players drafted:

5-stars - 59%
4-stars - 19%
3-stars - 6%
2-stars - 3%


so lets compare this to arkansas over the past 5 years

we have had 21 players drafted and and when compared to the classes they were recruited in it looks like this

5* 0%
4* 31%
3* 9%
2* 3%

we only had 1 5* and that didn't pan out, so that category is moot, but we did perfrom better than average with 3 and 4 stars and right on average with 2*s
"I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity." ― Edgar Allan Poe
"If quantum mechanics hasn't profoundly shocked you, you haven't understood it yet. Everything we call real is made of things that cannot be regarded as real." – Niels Bohr
"A mind stretched to a new idea, never returns to its original dimensions" ~ Oliver Wendell Holmes
Quote from: PonderinHog on August 07, 2023, 06:37:15 pmYeah, we're all here, but we ain't all there.

Steef

Quote from: Surfing8 on July 06, 2016, 08:18:32 pm
Yep

This is backed up by hard data.  Trying to spin like the OP in this thread looks a bit pathetic... especially when it's not in response to something stating otherwise.

Everyone wants our guys to be successful because YAY for our team, but why try to spin how ranking systems regard them... especially this early on with the thought police regulating all dissenters?

It's been said our guys will possibly get re-ranked into higher regard as they go through the fall season.  Let's wait and see what we've got before passing judgement. 
Then we can be skeptical or thrilled accordingly.

Actually, I started this thread to get this "star" argument...unique as you seem to think it is every year....out of the threads that are dedicated to recruits, and concentrated in one stinkpile thread.

Worked so far.


TNRazorbacker

Quote from: PorkSoda on July 06, 2016, 06:20:48 pm
so lets compare this to arkansas over the past 5 years

we have had 21 players drafted and and when compared to the classes they were recruited in it looks like this

5* 0%
4* 31%
3* 9%
2* 3%

we only had 1 5* and that didn't pan out, so that category is moot, but we did perfrom better than average with 3 and 4 stars and right on average with 2*s

Bingo

PorkSoda

Quote from: TNRazorbacker on July 06, 2016, 09:37:43 pm
Bingo
its worth noting we 'hit' approximately 50% better than average on both 3 and 4 star players.  that is significant in my mind.

"I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity." ― Edgar Allan Poe
"If quantum mechanics hasn't profoundly shocked you, you haven't understood it yet. Everything we call real is made of things that cannot be regarded as real." – Niels Bohr
"A mind stretched to a new idea, never returns to its original dimensions" ~ Oliver Wendell Holmes
Quote from: PonderinHog on August 07, 2023, 06:37:15 pmYeah, we're all here, but we ain't all there.

31to6

This debate is silly.

Do people really think that Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer can't *evaluate* and *develop*?

The difference is that they are evaluating from a pool of elite talent and then taking that talent and developing it.

All the evaluation and development prowess in the universe can't make up for doing that against a pool of elite athletes.

There is a reason why Bill Snyder is a legendary coach with a losing bowl record, career 65% win and only 2 conference championships in 20 years of coaching--it is because his talent deficit at KSU is so great that *everyone* recognizes that what he does is unique and amazing given the fact that he is lucky to reach the top-30 in recruiting.

CBB is a coach who will outperform his recruiting. He's a +1/+2 wins per year coach. Thats *awesome* and exactly what we need.

But he's not a magical +4 wins coach that is going to turn 8-win talent into 12-win perennial champions. The only way for us to get there is cheating at an epic level--which we don't want to do, probably can't do and will certainly get burned to the ground quickly if we try to do.

There is no Trey Flowers dilemma. He was overlooked by everyone. Misevaluated by everyone. We got lucky. Go us. But for that to work as a sustainable strategy we need to get lucky 10+ times per class, not just 2-3 times. Luck won't get it done.

Recruiting is good. But if it gets better, we will be better. It is really that simple.

PorkSoda

Quote from: 31to6 on July 06, 2016, 10:07:12 pm
This debate is silly.

Do people really think that Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer can't *evaluate* and *develop*?

The difference is that they are evaluating from a pool of elite talent and then taking that talent and developing it.

All the evaluation and development prowess in the universe can't make up for doing that against a pool of elite athletes.

There is a reason why Bill Snyder is a legendary coach with a losing bowl record, career 65% win and only 2 conference championships in 20 years of coaching--it is because his talent deficit at KSU is so great that *everyone* recognizes that what he does is unique and amazing given the fact that he is lucky to reach the top-30 in recruiting.

CBB is a coach who will outperform his recruiting. He's a +1/+2 wins per year coach. Thats *awesome* and exactly what we need.

But he's not a magical +4 wins coach that is going to turn 8-win talent into 12-win perennial champions. The only way for us to get there is cheating at an epic level--which we don't want to do, probably can't do and will certainly get burned to the ground quickly if we try to do.

There is no Trey Flowers dilemma. He was overlooked by everyone. Misevaluated by everyone. We got lucky. Go us. But for that to work as a sustainable strategy we need to get lucky 10+ times per class, not just 2-3 times. Luck won't get it done.

Recruiting is good. But if it gets better, we will be better. It is really that simple.
to win a championship you have to be good and lucky.  nobody expects us to out recruit saban.  but if we recruit/develop well enough, then maybe one day we will get lucky and be good enough to capitalize on it.
"I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity." ― Edgar Allan Poe
"If quantum mechanics hasn't profoundly shocked you, you haven't understood it yet. Everything we call real is made of things that cannot be regarded as real." – Niels Bohr
"A mind stretched to a new idea, never returns to its original dimensions" ~ Oliver Wendell Holmes
Quote from: PonderinHog on August 07, 2023, 06:37:15 pmYeah, we're all here, but we ain't all there.

Steef

Quote from: 31to6 on July 06, 2016, 10:07:12 pm
This debate is silly.

Do people really think that Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer can't *evaluate* and *develop*?

The difference is that they are evaluating from a pool of elite talent and then taking that talent and developing it.

All the evaluation and development prowess in the universe can't make up for doing that against a pool of elite athletes.

There is a reason why Bill Snyder is a legendary coach with a losing bowl record, career 65% win and only 2 conference championships in 20 years of coaching--it is because his talent deficit at KSU is so great that *everyone* recognizes that what he does is unique and amazing given the fact that he is lucky to reach the top-30 in recruiting.

CBB is a coach who will outperform his recruiting. He's a +1/+2 wins per year coach. Thats *awesome* and exactly what we need.

But he's not a magical +4 wins coach that is going to turn 8-win talent into 12-win perennial champions. The only way for us to get there is cheating at an epic level--which we don't want to do, probably can't do and will certainly get burned to the ground quickly if we try to do.

There is no Trey Flowers dilemma. He was overlooked by everyone. Misevaluated by everyone. We got lucky. Go us. But for that to work as a sustainable strategy we need to get lucky 10+ times per class, not just 2-3 times. Luck won't get it done.

Recruiting is good. But if it gets better, we will be better. It is really that simple.

All of you "I hate 3 stars" folks seem to think we (well... Bret...right now) WANT to deliberately limit ourselves to recruiting classes filled with kids the rating services pass over.

Somehow (in your mind) Nick and Urban are the only ones who've realized 5 star players are desirable. Bret must be too dumb to see that....right?

Or...perhaps Bret is smart enough to know he (we) really can't compete with Nick and Urban on the recruiting trail, for reasons he had to prove to himself last January.

And proof is what he got.

So maybe, just maybe, Bret decided to look for kids others had missed. That he could build a team from. And that Nick couldn't or wouldn't buy out from under us.

Live with it. There will never....ever...be a time when Arkansas has MORE recruiting prestige than Nick/Bama. Or even EQUAL recruiting prestige. We just dont. And wont.

Bret gets that. And accepts the challenge.

This thread wasn't intended to imply that 3 stars are preferable to 4s or 5s. Just that the sky isn't falling, either.

For the last two years, our 3s &4s have given Nick's 5s....all they wanted. That's coaching. The only real difference was depth.

We've beaten the store bought team from Ole Miss twice. And the loaded team from Louisiana twice. We CAN compete.

Because we have a DAMN fine coach.

Pork Twain

What makes a player/team successful?  In no particular order.

Coaching
Scheme
Recruiting
- Player Evaluation
- Low Miss-rate
Player development
- Physical (in the weight room)
- Mental (on the field and the film room)

Please add more.

Note: nowhere on here is player ranking.  Obviously top players are going to be evaluated and highly recruited, but that does not mean that they are indeed one of the best.  Probability points to that being the case though.  Those stars next their names are often a result of so many top schools showing them a lot of attention and in turn pointing the recruiting service spotlight on them.

http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=567699.msg8991119#msg8991119
"It is better to be an optimist and proven wrong, than a pessimist and proven right." ~Pork Twain

https://www.facebook.com/groups/sweetmemes/

oldhawg

Quote from: Steef on July 07, 2016, 07:17:00 am
All of you "I hate 3 stars" folks seem to think we (well... Bret...right now) WANT to deliberately limit ourselves to recruiting classes filled with kids the rating services pass over.

Somehow (in your mind) Nick and Urban are the only ones who've realized 5 star players are desirable. Bret must be too dumb to see that....right?

Or...perhaps Bret is smart enough to know he (we) really can't compete with Nick and Urban on the recruiting trail, for reasons he had to prove to himself last January.

And proof is what he got.

So maybe, just maybe, Bret decided to look for kids others had missed. That he could build a team from. And that Nick couldn't or wouldn't buy out from under us.

Live with it. There will never....ever...be a time when Arkansas has MORE recruiting prestige than Nick/Bama. Or even EQUAL recruiting prestige. We just dont. And wont.

Bret gets that. And accepts the challenge.

This thread wasn't intended to imply that 3 stars are preferable to 4s or 5s. Just that the sky isn't falling, either.

For the last two years, our 3s &4s have given Nick's 5s....all they wanted. That's coaching. The only real difference was depth.

We've beaten the store bought team from Ole Miss twice. And the loaded team from Louisiana twice. We CAN compete.

Because we have a DAMN fine coach.


This sums it up pretty well.

The thing is, the stars will align someday, and Bielema will bring Arkansas a shot at the SEC Championship and subsequently a shot at the national championship.  A little luck is sometimes needed by the best of teams, such as was the case with Alabama last year ( Arkansas beating Ole Miss).  Had that not happened, Alabama would neither have been in the SECC game nor the national championship picture.   

31to6

Quote from: Steef on July 07, 2016, 07:17:00 am
All of you "I hate 3 stars" folks seem to think we (well... Bret...right now) WANT to deliberately limit ourselves to recruiting classes filled with kids the rating services pass over.
Don't characterize me. I love what CBB is doing in recruiting and how the team is improving.

Just don't tell me that we would not be getting where we want to go faster if we were the kind of school that pulls in top-10 classes every year.

Cinco de Hogo

Ok forget the star system!  If CBB is successful with the current system of recruiting and he ups our win total into the 9-10 win avg he will get "some" superior talent to come his way.  If his system continues its success and he ups his win total into the 10-11 range he will get "more" superior talent to come his way.  Now I believe those two tics would be fairly small(not Ole Miss leaps) but if we get into the teens on a consistant bases we can win the SECC and maybe with a miracles worth of luck a NC.  That's what I look forward to in the future.  CBB staying hungry and staying put at Arkansas is the best recipe for success we could possible have.  There might be other coaches that could come in and do wonders but I wouldn't bet on one staying for the long haul.

There is no dilemma just consistant hard work.

Steef

Quote from: 31to6 on July 07, 2016, 10:56:43 am
Don't characterize me. I love what CBB is doing in recruiting and how the team is improving.

Just don't tell me that we would not be getting where we want to go faster if we were the kind of school that pulls in top-10 classes every year.

You characterize yourself with these posts.

"If we were one of these schools that...etc"

Why arent we?

You say you "love" what Bret is doing then complain about what hes doing.

Last January proved the Bret would recruit "stars" ...if he could. Didnt work out.

Why? (We all know why)

So what would YOU do? Recruit kids that can be coached up? Or become Hugh Freeze?

That really is the only question. It has always been the only question.

It is obvious that Bret/Jeff have made their choice. We arent going down that road.  We just arent.

All of these debates already have that answer baked in.

Pork Twain

CBB will be successful here because of his player evaluation, low miss-rate and developmental process.  No coach will ever be successful here because they can out-recruit the SEC powers, because that has never and will never happen.
"It is better to be an optimist and proven wrong, than a pessimist and proven right." ~Pork Twain

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