Welcome to Hogville!      Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Way Too Early Look at the 2017 Hogs

Started by ucahogfan, May 14, 2016, 04:14:26 pm

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

ucahogfan

So with the season winding down, I figure it was about time to look ahead to the 2017 version of the Diamond Hogs.

DISCLAIMER: I will know much more about the lineup after the MLB Draft in just under a month and will do another look at some point this summer.

For this lineup, I will base it on some guidelines.  The point of this isn't to say that so and so will not be on campus next year because he is for sure going to sign.  The point is to look ahead and talk about potential lineups next year.

So, here are my guidelines:

-  The three main junior pitchers all sign after being drafted.
-  Eagan comes back for his senior season.
-  Shaddy and Bonfield come back for their junior seasons.
-  All signees make it to campus.  This is where a lot of people will disagree with me, but for a dream scenario, let's see how our offense would look if everyone made it to campus.

The Lineup
Catcher - Ben Rortvedt (Freshman) - A stud recruit signed out of Wisconsin who is a 2nd round talent.  He is signed to play summer ball in the Northwoods League so he would be like getting a RS Freshman to campus.  According to his scouting report, he is a brings a lot of pop from the left hand side and has the tools to stick behind the plate defensively, but needs some work on his defense mainly with receiving and blocking.  My optimistic prediction is him triple slashing .320/.390/.530 with 12+ HRs, but my more realistic line is .280/.345/.475 with 5-8 HRs.

I also need to mention Grant Koch who will be a Sophomore.  He is a potential big time hitter for us as he has shown on multiple occasions this year.  No matter if Rortvedt makes it to campus or not, we are set behind the plate next year with Grant Koch coming back.

1st Base - Chad Spanberger (Junior) - He would bring the thunder at the plate as we have seen on numerous occasions this season.  He does have a lot of swing and miss in his game, but we are going to have to live with it in a big time power hitter.  While he has settled in at RF this year, I see him moving to 1B next year.  My optimistic prediction for him is triple slashing .290/.410/.550 with 20+ HRs, but the more realistic prediction is .250/.350/.485 with around 10 HRs.

Clark Eagan could also start at 1B if he does return for his senior year.

2nd Base - Jared Gates (Junior) - He is currently triple slashing .449/.489/.823.  The batting average and slugging percentage are top 20 in the JUCO ranks.  He is 11th in JUCO with 89 hits with 48 of those going for extra bases.  He is second in the JUCO ranks in both 2Bs (30) and 3Bs (10).  He also has hit 8 HRs.  He has a FLD% of .946 which is to be expected out of a MIF.  Optimistically, Gates could come in a triple slash .350/.390/.550 with about 30-35 extra base hits, but realistically, Gates will probably be .290/.330/.430 with 20-25 extra base hits.

Freshman Jaxon Williams could also challenge Gates for the starting job at 2B.

3rd Base - Clark Eagan (Senior) - He has shown so much versatility in his career at Arkansas playing 1B and in the OF, but I think he settles in at 3B as a senior.  He would provide that leadership on the field that every coach loves to have.  Optimistically, Eagan will triple slash .360/.430/.520 with 8-10 HRs, but more realistically, he will triple slash .320/.400/.460 with 5-8 HRs.  With him being a senior, he will have the closest optimistic and realistic expectation.

Freshman Cole Stobbe, Freshman Jaxon Williams, and Sophomore Cody Scroggins could all find their home at the hot corner as well.

Shortstop - Cole Stobbe (Freshman) - Like Rortvedt, he is a top 100 draft prospect and was a PG All-American.  He brings a very solid hit tool to the plate and brings some speed into the field.  He is a more natural hitter than Rortvedt, but does not bring as much power to the plate.  Optimistically, Stobbe can triple slash .350/.400/.500 with 8-10 HRs, but more realistically, he will triple slash .300/.380/.450 with 5 HRs.

Freshman Jaxon Williams or Junior Hunter Wilson could also potentially start at SS.

Left Field - Luke Bonfield (Junior) - He has anchored our lineup this year along with Shaddy and Eagan.  While he is a DE Sophomore, he has not picked up a ton of steam and should return for his junior year.  Optimistically, Bonfield can triple .400/.500/.750 with 15-20 HRs, but more realistically, he will triple slash .350/.450/.580 with 10-12 HRs.

Freshman Jordan McFarland or RS Sophomore Jack Benninghoff could start in LF.

Center Field - Jordan McFarland (Freshman) - How strange would it be to see some 6-4, 225 playing CF, but he also has plus speed and could play out there with that speed.  He brings a unique combination of power and speed which could make him scary in college.  Optimistically, McFarland could triple slash .290/.375/.550 with 10+ HRs, but more realistically, he hits .250/.330/.400 with 5+ HRs.

RS Sophomore Jack Benninghoff, RS Junior Carson Shaddy, and Senior Jake Arledge could also start in CF.

Right Field - Dominic Fletcher (Freshman) - Like Stobbe and Rortvedt, he is a PG All-American and top 50 prospect in his class according to PG.  He is a stud defensively, but probably meant for a corner.  Like Tyler Spoon, he will cut down runners trying to take the extra base as well as make some terrific catchers.  Offensively, he can hit .320/.400/.480 with 5+ HRs, but more realistically, will hit .280/.350/.400 with 3-5 HRs.

Junior Chad Spanberger could also start out in RF.

Designated Hitter - Carson Shaddy (RS Junior) - Another anchor in our lineup with Bonfield and Eagan.  Being shaky defensively, he is best suited to play DH in this lineup.  Optimistically, Shaddy can triple slash .400/.470/.700 with 15+ HRs, but more realistically, he triple slash .350/.430/.600 with 10+ HRs.

Junior Chad Spanberger or Sophomore Grant Koch could also DH.

The Batting Order
1.  Eagan
2.  Shaddy
3.  Bonfield
4.  Spanberger
5.  Stobbe
6.  Rortvedt
7.  Gates
8.  Fletcher
9.  McFarland

The Rotation
Friday - Keaton McKinney (Junior) - At his best in high school, McKinney was 92-94 with a changeup which was just nasty.  While we have seen the changeup his first two years here, we have yet to see the 92-94 which he showed in high school.  Hopefully he is healthy as a junior and that is what we see all year.  He could be a dominant pitcher in the SEC with those two pitches.

Saturday - Blaine Knight (Sophomore) - In short stretches this year, Knight has hit 93-94 while sitting more 88-91 as a starter.  He has been hittable at times this year, but he has filled up the zone consistently.  Hopefully he adds strength this offseason and is sitting 93-94 as a starter next year while hitting 95-96.  That would be excellent to run out on Saturday in the SEC.

Sunday - Isaiah Campbell (Sophomore) - He has also shown the ability to run it up to 93-94 this year and could hold that in starts as he gets older and add strength.  Like Knight, he has shown the ability to throw strikes this year, but he also needs to learn to keep the ball in the park as he has allowed 4 HRs in less than 30 IP this year.

Closer - Brenden Heiss (Freshman) - He was an Under Armour All-American this past season.  He sits 93-95 with his fastball which runs and causes some swings and misses.

Setup - Channon Chadwick (Senior) - I don't really know what has happened to him this year, but he has been one of the top options out of the pen and that shouldn't change next year.

Another Weekend Starter Option - Barrett Loseke (Sophomore) - Unlike Campbell and Knight, he has struggled with his command some and needs to throw more strikes.  He has sneaky good stuff and can hold offenses down even though he only throws about 88-91.

Midweek Starter 1 - Tyler Benninghoff (Freshman) - He has the frame at 6-4 which can mean he will throw mid 90s at some point on campus as well as brings one of the top breaking balls in high school to campus.

The Freshman LHPs - Matt Cronin, Lucas Krull, Evan Lee - I feel like these three need to be group together as they all can hit around 92 and can see some innings for us next year.

Overall, I am very excited for the 2017 edition of the Diamond Hogs if it turns out like this, but let's be honest, there is like a 1% chance of that happening.

jry04


 

ucahogfan

Quote from: jry04 on May 14, 2016, 05:29:14 pm
Don't think Eagan gets drafted?
I think he does, but I also thinks he comes back for his senior year.

Kevin

Not sure how many of these guys I want back
Submit yourselves therefore to God. Resist the devil and he will flee from you.<br />James 4:7
Reject Every Kind Of Evil 1 Thessalonians 5:22

Maddhog

Thanks for putting that together, uca.   I am still interested in this team but also itching to look ahead.   
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.

Knot2brite

There may be a lot of changes....I would expect this summer to be busy....
Usually in EI where intelligent conversation is required

Dr. Starcs

Given how this year's gone it's never too early to look at next year.

ucahogfan

Quote from: Maddhog on May 14, 2016, 09:14:16 pm
Thanks for putting that together, uca.   I am still interested in this team but also itching to look ahead.
I'm still interested in this team as well, but it is always interesting to look into the future.

Maddhog

Quote from: ucahogfan on May 14, 2016, 09:18:54 pm
I'm still interested in this team as well, but it is always interesting to look into the future.

Yes it is and I always look forward to your recruiting info. 

A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.

Pig Papi

Quote from: ucahogfan on May 14, 2016, 09:18:54 pm
I'm still interested in this team as well, but it is always interesting to look into the future.

What do you think of freshman Angus Denton coming out of the pen.  He comes from an angle you just don't see much in college?

Razrpig256

Curious about your thoughts on which young pitchers may not be back next year? The three LHPs from NWA, especially Harris, haven't seen too much time, along with Reindl, Dahl, and Hart. Those 3 RHPs showed some potential early this year if I remember correctly.

ricepig

Quote from: Razrpig256 on May 15, 2016, 06:38:21 pm
Curious about your thoughts on which young pitchers may not be back next year? The three LHPs from NWA, especially Harris, haven't seen too much time, along with Reindl, Dahl, and Hart. Those 3 RHPs showed some potential early this year if I remember correctly.

I have no idea, but from DVH's history, there will be 3-5 minimum that will move on, that's pitchers and position players. Also, that's not counting guys drafted who leave.

dwaller

Grant Koch is looking good at catcher now.

 

Kevin

Koch scroggins loeske knight Campbell seem to be the keepers as freshmen
Submit yourselves therefore to God. Resist the devil and he will flee from you.<br />James 4:7
Reject Every Kind Of Evil 1 Thessalonians 5:22

TNhawgfan

Quote from: Kevin on May 16, 2016, 07:31:54 am
Koch scroggins loeske knight Campbell seem to be the keepers as freshmen
Yes, definitely don't want to cut ties with any of them. Knight and Campbell will be studs in the rotation the next two years imo
I'd rather be dead than be a Vol

JackMcQueen

Don't forget that Bonfield is a draft eligible sophomore, so he could be gone after this season.
2 SEC titles, 4 SEC West titles, 28 NCAA Tournaments, 6 NCAA Super Regionals, 8 College World Series
THIS...IS...BASEBALL!

ucahogfan

Quote from: JackMcQueen on May 16, 2016, 10:41:22 am
Don't forget that Bonfield is a draft eligible sophomore, so he could be gone after this season.
I didn't forget about Bonfield being DE.  I have him returning in my guidelines which should imply he is DE and then I mention it in his breakdown.

ucahogfan

Quote from: methog on May 15, 2016, 12:38:05 pm
What do you think of freshman Angus Denton coming out of the pen.  He comes from an angle you just don't see much in college?
His arm angle is unique, but I don't really know much about him like the other recruits since he hasn't participated in a lot of the big events.  He could definitely be an asset out of the pen especially when it comes to RHH.

ucahogfan

Quote from: Kevin on May 16, 2016, 07:31:54 am
Koch scroggins loeske knight Campbell seem to be the keepers as freshmen
What about Cole?  I completely forgot about him in my breakdown, but he could definitely be a starter next year.

ucahogfan

Quote from: dwaller on May 15, 2016, 07:59:22 pm
Grant Koch is looking good at catcher now.
I fully agree with you.  We are set at C the next two years regardless if Rortvedt makes it or not with Koch; however, Rortvedt is a unique talent.

Kevin

Quote from: ucahogfan on May 16, 2016, 07:38:43 pm
What about Cole?  I completely forgot about him in my breakdown, but he could definitely be a starter next year.

I forgot him also. seems like a keeper
Submit yourselves therefore to God. Resist the devil and he will flee from you.<br />James 4:7
Reject Every Kind Of Evil 1 Thessalonians 5:22

PorkRyan

Quote from: methog on May 15, 2016, 12:38:05 pm
What do you think of freshman Angus Denton coming out of the pen.  He comes from an angle you just don't see much in college?

He throws just like David Berg (UCLA) who was one of the best closers in college baseball.  They have an almost identical motion and both rely on the frisbee slider.  I think he can help out of the pen and it wouldn't surprise me if he is our closer one day.       

PorkRyan

Just saw a couple of mocks that both had Rortvedt in the 2nd round and one had Benninghoff in the 2nd and the other in the 3rd.  Not sure how you get a guy to turn down high 6 or low 7 figures. 

hawgcraZ

I would assume it had Stobbe going in the first two rounds too?  If we lose these 3, we absolutely have to hold onto McFarland, Heiss, Fletcher and the 2 high ranked lefties.  We need a HUGE influx of talent.

 

PorkRyan

No, neither had Stobbe in the first 3 rounds. It kind of surprised me that he wasn't listed

ucahogfan

Quote from: PorkRyan on May 21, 2016, 07:36:46 am
Just saw a couple of mocks that both had Rortvedt in the 2nd round and one had Benninghoff in the 2nd and the other in the 3rd.  Not sure how you get a guy to turn down high 6 or low 7 figures.
It happens all the time.  How did Vandy get Donnie Everett who hit 100 last year in HS or UCLA get Justin Hooper who was a LHP who hit 97 in HS?  Those are the two biggest examples from last year, but those are two guys who were in line to get 2M plus, but turned it down to go to school.

It all depends on the bonus they want.  Some want in the 500-600K range while others want 2M+ which is what we have to hope for with the class and then for those teams who draft them don't have huge bonus pools where they can be creative with their bonuses they give out.

And mocks rarely take signability into the equation until numbers are floated by the HS players to scouts.  Rortvedt has signed to play in the Northwoods this summer which is rare for a HS player to do while Benninghoff might be set on playing with his brother who was a very good player out of HS as well.

tennesseehogwild

Will be shocked if Bonfield is here next year!

HoopS

If our D doesn't improve it doesn't matter. Whoever runs the defense primarily needs to put extra work. Not acceptable.

Razorbacks#1

"You sleep safely in your beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm.

THUNDER!

ucahogfan

Quote from: tennesseehogwild on May 21, 2016, 07:33:22 pm
Will be shocked if Bonfield is here next year!
That was not the purpose of this thread.  It isn't to talk about who or who not will be here, but looking forward to the different options we have.

And why would you be shocked?  BA has released the top 300 of their annual BA 500 and he hasn't been in there yet.

Scott7703

Quote from: tennesseehogwild on May 21, 2016, 07:33:22 pm
Will be shocked if Bonfield is here next year!



Doesn't sound like DVH will be shocked if he's back.

woodhog14

Quote from: HoopS on May 21, 2016, 08:02:26 pm
If our D pitching doesn't improve it doesn't matter. Whoever runs the defense primarily needs to put extra work. Not acceptable.

Pitching was more of a problem than defense was all year. Yes, the defense had some issues, but pitching was worse.

HoopS

Quote from: woodhog14 on May 29, 2016, 10:31:49 am
Pitching was more of a problem than defense was all year. Yes, the defense had some issues, but pitching was worse.
neither were good. But my point mainly was that even with good pitching and hitting, we still played bad baseball at times. We make one more play against LSU and the rally possum died that night and who knows how things play out afterwards. But overall I agree. Gotta make some serious strides in D overall and that's including Pitching.

dotnet

I always miss sticky threads, I had no idea this was here


dotnet

Is Weston Rogers out of favor?  I had to miss part of this season, first time in a long time, so I don't know if something happened.

From what I saw, he had as much raw potential as anyone

ucahogfan

Quote from: dotnet on May 30, 2016, 02:20:06 pm
Is Weston Rogers out of favor?  I had to miss part of this season, first time in a long time, so I don't know if something happened.

From what I saw, he had as much raw potential as anyone
I didn't get to watch as many games this year as normal, but it seemed like he fell behind Loseke, Campbell, and Knight among the freshmen.

dotnet

I think that is a good breakdown.  A couple of seniors coming back would be really helpful.  A&M has a lineup that is full of seniors, and a SEC POY who is a redshirt jr, that has helped it go to a new level this year.  Sometimes the fourth year is huge.

Another way to look at it for me:

All SEC Players (a  great team needs 2-3 of these):
example: 355/427/509
Shaddy 332/400/521
Bonfield 304/402/509
Eagan 298/370/444


Above average contributors (a great team needs at least 2-3 of these):
example: 315/410/450
Spanberger 225/325/441
Gates JUCO
Cole 265/350/304
Koch 276/382/447


So this clearly indicates that some guys have to improve, but you expect that every year no matter what.  I think it is normal to see big jumps in guys at some point while on campus.  DVH mentioned he thinks Bonfield has another big jump in him to easily get to the caliber of player the team needs him to be. 

The unknown here is the freshmen.  Arkansas hasn't had freshman produce the way you have to if you're going to be good year in and year out in the SEC.  AB and Bonfield both got hurt.  The pitchers weren't good enough out of the gate.  Arkansas is depending on some newcomers to come in and hit like Eagan did as a freshman.  They don't have to be great, but the team needs them to get close to the 300/400/400 slash line. 

The pitchers are a different story to me.  You have freshmen potentially coming in who could mimick what USCe and Florida have done this year or in recent years.  There are also guys on campus with raw talent that could easily have a much better 2017 if things developed a little: command, develop a 2nd or 3rd pitch, add some velo, etc. 

When you count the freshmen, the number of people that could fit that mold though are close to ten - with Campbell and McKinney having the best chance of being all SEC types. 




dotnet

Quote from: ucahogfan on May 30, 2016, 02:37:51 pm
I didn't get to watch as many games this year as normal, but it seemed like he fell behind Loseke, Campbell, and Knight among the freshmen.

I noticed that too.  But I thought his raw "stuff" was better than all of those guys except maybe Campbell. Hopefully a new guy can work with him and he can put it together. 

ucahogfan

Quote from: dotnet on May 30, 2016, 02:58:32 pm
I noticed that too.  But I thought his raw "stuff" was better than all of those guys except maybe Campbell. Hopefully a new guy can work with him and he can put it together.
Yeah, it is all going to matter with how the new pitching coach develops our young guys.  Knight does have some good stuff and I can see him sitting in the 93-94 range with more strength.  We know the 93-94 is in there, but more in short stints right now.

bulldog04

So considering Stobbe is gone who is our SS? Jaxon Williams? Is Drew Tyler an option?

ucahogfan

Quote from: bulldog04 on June 11, 2016, 10:35:16 am
So considering Stobbe is gone who is our SS? Jaxon Williams? Is Drew Tyler an option?
I would think Jaxon Williams has to be the favorite coming to campus, but I have completely forgotten about Drew Tyler.  If he is healthy, I could see him starting at either SS or 3B.  He did play at the ACG in high school.

yraciv

June 12, 2016, 12:16:38 pm #41 Last Edit: June 12, 2016, 02:10:56 pm by yraciv
Post Draft Prediction:
C - Grant Koch
1B - Chad Spanberger
2B - Jared Gates
SS - Hunter Wilson
3B - Carson Shaddy
LF - Luke Bonfield
CF - Jordan McFarland
RF - Eric Cole
DH - Austin Catron

I'll go with the same rotation as up top.

ucahogfan

Quote from: yraciv on June 12, 2016, 12:16:38 pm
Post Draft Prediction:
C - Grant Koch
1B - Chad Spanberger
2B - Jared Gates
SS - Hunter Wilson
3B - Austin Catron
LF - Luke Bonfield
CF - Jordan McFarland
RF - Eric Cole
DH - Carson Shaddy

I'll go with the same rotation as up top.
0% chance Catron plays 3B.  And I think Fletcher starts in RF.  He is an elite level defender and can be a very good hitter as well.

yraciv

Quote from: ucahogfan on June 12, 2016, 12:27:52 pm
0% chance Catron plays 3B.  And I think Fletcher starts in RF.  He is an elite level defender and can be a very good hitter as well.

Guys like Catron and Cole, I'm not ready to relegate to the bench.  Maybe Fletcher will be good, but he is too much of an unknown to me. And saying 0% is absurd in college baseball where players constantly switch positions.  Probably the safer prediction is Shaddy at 3rd and Catron at DH, but after seeing Shaddy man the hot corner, I feel Catron would do a better job.

ucahogfan

Quote from: yraciv on June 12, 2016, 02:00:41 pm
Guys like Catron and Cole, I'm not ready to relegate to the bench.  Maybe Fletcher will be good, but he is too much of an unknown to me. And saying 0% is absurd in college baseball where players constantly switch positions.  Probably the safer prediction is Shaddy at 3rd and Catron at DH, but after seeing Shaddy man the hot corner, I feel Catron would do a better job.
Catron is LH.  0% chance he plays 3B.

yraciv


ricepig

Quote from: ucahogfan on June 12, 2016, 02:05:15 pm
Catron is LH.  0% chance he plays 3B.

Just think how he'd guard the line in late innings.....

HoopS

What percent chance does he have to Catch or be a Right Handed Pitcher?

bulldog04

Outfield is crowded more than last year now with the great freshmen coming in and only losing Eagan

dotnet

The issue with the freshmen, is you never know who is going to be ready right away.  The player who is most ready to play as a freshman isn't always the guy who is the best player for the full three years. 

Guys can always improve, but I would be dissapointed if Catron is starting at DH next year.

The pitching was needed more the hitting, and that worked out pretty well.  If Benninghoff can somehow make it to campus, then it would be pretty amazing.