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Odds, Money Line, BPI What the $$$ says about Hogs v Butler

Started by checkraiser88, March 11, 2018, 07:10:50 pm

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hawg66

I know last year the Big East had a bad tourney. Seton Hall was overrated. Villanova went out early. Butler has a worse record in a weaker conference,IMO. Hogs are the higher seed for a reason. Doesn't mean it'll be easy but Arkansas should win.

010HogFan

Quote from: hawg66 on March 11, 2018, 09:47:48 pm
I know last year the Big East had a bad tourney. Seton Hall was overrated. Villanova went out early. Butler has a worse record in a weaker conference,IMO. Hogs are the higher seed for a reason. Doesn't mean it'll be easy but Arkansas should win.

I didn't think Seton Hall was overrated at all. They were a force on the boards, had gritty guards, and were a tough out for us.

 

OldTimeHawg

Quote from: 010HogFan on March 11, 2018, 10:04:59 pm
I didn't think Seton Hall was overrated at all. They were a force on the boards, had gritty guards, and were a tough out for us.

Seton Hall was a bad matchup for Arkansas.  If I remember most computers and analysts were picking Seton Hall.  Didn't go so for well for them :D
HOGS = LIFE

010HogFan

Quote from: OldTimeHawg on March 11, 2018, 10:06:35 pm
Seton Hall was a bad matchup for Arkansas.  If I remember most computers and analysts were picking Seton Hall.  Didn't go so for well for them :D

If it weren't for that 'questionable' call at the end, we were on the ropes. Again, far from overrated.

WBOBO

Why is everyone so gd mad?   Be happy.  Accept the challenge and go.
Currently I have a broken ankle.  Accept the challenge and GO!
Go HOGS!!!!!!!!!!!!
The difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little extra.

OldTimeHawg

Quote from: 010HogFan on March 11, 2018, 10:08:31 pm
If it weren't for that 'questionable' call at the end, we were on the ropes. Again, far from overrated.

I didn't think it was questionable.  You push someone you get called.  I picked Seton Hall to win that one...and was happy I was wrong.  I'm picking Arkansas because I believe they matchup well with Butler.
HOGS = LIFE

010HogFan

Quote from: OldTimeHawg on March 11, 2018, 10:09:46 pm
I didn't think it was questionable.  You push someone you get called.  I picked Seton Hall to win that one...and was happy I was wrong.  I'm picking Arkansas because I believe they matchup well with Butler.

I don't think it was a bad call, it was just in question and somewhat controversial. I'm sure if you asked their fans you would get a very different interpretation lol. but yes, I think we match up WAY better with Butler than we did Seton Hall. Nothing Butler does has proven to cause us problems like lengthy guards and big guys seem to. I think we win by 6-8 points.

OldTimeHawg

Quote from: 010HogFan on March 11, 2018, 10:11:54 pm
I don't think it was a bad call, it was just in question and somewhat controversial. I'm sure if you asked their fans you would get a very different interpretation lol. but yes, I think we match up WAY better with Butler than we did Seton Hall. Nothing Butler does has proven to cause us problems like lengthy guards seem to. I think we win by 6-8 points.

Don't forget this when thinking about these matchups as well.  No computer model can ever predict the chip on the shoulder a team has, and Arkansas has a MAJOR drive this year.  I think they are the most motivated and focused team coming into the tournament.  I think you are going to see some kind of Arkansas team on Friday.
HOGS = LIFE

010HogFan

Quote from: OldTimeHawg on March 11, 2018, 10:13:34 pm
Don't forget this when thinking about these matchups as well.  No computer model can ever predict the chip on the shoulder a team has, and Arkansas has a MAJOR drive this year.  I think they are the most motivated and focused team coming into the tournament.  I think you are going to see some kind of Arkansas team on Friday.

I think Macon is going to go off. He won't have 3 bad games in a row.

OldTimeHawg

Quote from: 010HogFan on March 11, 2018, 10:14:51 pm
I think Macon is going to go off. He won't have 3 bad games in a row.

I'm thinking Barford and Macon are going to be playing out of their minds.  I don't know I just have that feeling.  They know that this is their last chance to have a special season, and I think they are going to be locked in this weekend.  Gafford is the X-Factor.  If he comes to play as well, this team is going to show the country how much they disrespected the Razorbacks.
HOGS = LIFE

WBOBO

Quote from: OldTimeHawg on March 11, 2018, 10:13:34 pm
Don't forget this when thinking about these matchups as well.  No computer model can ever predict the chip on the shoulder a team has, and Arkansas has a MAJOR drive this year.  I think they are the most motivated and focused team coming into the tournament.  I think you are going to see some kind of Arkansas team on Friday.
Ask the computer how many dunks Gafford has in the game.  Because it will
be wrong.

I like being the underdog.  I dare the  oddsmakers to make us a dog.
The difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little extra.

OldTimeHawg

Quote from: WBOBO on March 11, 2018, 10:21:14 pm
Ask the computer how many dunks Gafford has in the game.  Because it will
be wrong.

I like being the underdog.  I dare the  oddsmakers to make us a dog.

They have.  Almost all of them I have seen picked Butler to beat us.  I love it.  They did it last year with Seton Hall.  We won.  They said we couldn't hang with North Carolina.  We made them sweat till there were puddles on the floor.  I'm ready for Friday ;)
HOGS = LIFE

WBOBO

Quote from: OldTimeHawg on March 11, 2018, 10:23:08 pm
They have.  Almost all of them I have seen picked Butler to beat us.  I love it.  They did it last year with Seton Hall.  We won.  They said we couldn't hang with North Carolina.  We made them sweat till there were puddles on the floor.  I'm ready for Friday ;)
Walk daddy let yo momma ride!!!!!!!!!!!!
We should be dancing yeah.  We should be dancing yeah. 
GHG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little extra.

 

ChicoHog

CBS sportsline computer simulation has Butler beating us 62.1% of the time.  They also have Stephen F. Austin beating Texas Tech which would be a big upset.  I hope they are wrong!

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2018-bracket-computer-simulation-predicts-surprising-upsets/

snoblind

Quote from: hawg66 on March 11, 2018, 09:47:48 pm
I know last year the Big East had a bad tourney. Seton Hall was overrated. Villanova went out early. Butler has a worse record in a weaker conference,IMO. Hogs are the higher seed for a reason. Doesn't mean it'll be easy but Arkansas should win.

meh 

Villanova went out early last year because I picked them to win the tournament.  Year before I picked them to lose early and they won the whole thing.

This year my plan is to fill out at least 2 brackets.  I'll pick Butler and Purdue to go all the way.  That should put the Hogs in the sweet 16, 

WBOBO

Quote from: OldTimeHawg on March 11, 2018, 10:23:08 pm
They have.  Almost all of them I have seen picked Butler to beat us.  I love it.  They did it last year with Seton Hall.  We won.  They said we couldn't hang with North Carolina.  We made them sweat till there were puddles on the floor.  I'm ready for Friday ;)
Ya know Old Time  I love that #10 on your avatar.
The difference between ordinary and extraordinary is that little extra.

BannerMountainMan

Quote from: 010HogFan on March 11, 2018, 10:08:31 pm
If it weren't for that 'questionable' call at the end, we were on the ropes. Again, far from overrated.
we were up by 2 and had the ball, we were on the ropes LOL
"Michael Qualls with the dunk at the buzzer, it goes and Arkansas wins, it goes and Arkansas wins"

seasonhog

Quote from: ChicoHog on March 11, 2018, 10:50:22 pm
CBS sportsline computer simulation has Butler beating us 62.1% of the time.  They also have Stephen F. Austin beating Texas Tech which would be a big upset.  I hope they are wrong!

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2018-bracket-computer-simulation-predicts-surprising-upsets/




BING..... has Butler winning 55%

mckinneyhog5

Seriously has many of you have watched Butler play this year? I have..are they bad? No. can they beat us? Yes. But I'm pretty confident by watching each tem we should win. Absolutely nothing to be afraid of.
Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.

Razorod

It won't be easy, but we have been presented with a decent opportunity to get to the Sweet 16 and end the drought.
Hoping the Hogs basketball fortunes change for the better this season.

MemphisBossHog

Quote from: Dr. Starcs on March 11, 2018, 07:13:51 pm
Vegas has it as a pick em I believe.
this is a tough draw for an opening game to be sure.  Butler is no joke, but if Hogs can pull this one out, they have a decent shot at making sweet 16.  Thank God we dont have North Carolina sitting there waiting on us if we do win.  LOL.                  jk

GoHogzzGo

Butler opens as 1.5 point favorite. Yup another example how our seeding is a bit screwy. Not some major offense, but not how a 7-10 matchup should be set.

That being said, I hope CMA uses that and we stomp them.
Success isn't permanent and failure isn't fatal.

HogFaninMemphis

March 12, 2018, 08:16:57 am #72 Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 12:52:19 pm by HogFaninMemphis
We got a tough first-round draw for sure, but we can overcome it. Vegas odds are about more than who the better team is, and they apparently see this as a particularly tough matchup for us.
Go Hogs, Go Cardinals, and Go Grizzlies!

The Hogfather

I actually love being the underdog with this team.  They will use it to beat Butler's arse.

 

hogcards

Sorry to say this, but I see them covering.
"You have enemies? Good. It means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."~Winston Churchill

"Racist -- a person who wins an argument with a liberal."~Rush Limbaugh

#lgb
#mediaistheenemy
#stoleninarizona

King Kong

Quote from: HogFaninMemphis on March 12, 2018, 08:16:57 am
We got a tough first-round draw for sure, but we can overcome it. Vegas odds are about more than who the best team is, and they apparently see this as a particularly tough matchup for us.

Vegas is trying to make money and they know come Tournament time people will lay down money on names like Butler, Witcha St and Gonzaga

King Kong

Quote from: GoHogzzGo on March 12, 2018, 07:15:47 am
Butler opens as 1.5 point favorite. Yup another example how our seeding is a bit screwy. Not some major offense, but not how a 7-10 matchup should be set.

7-10 is basically a 50-50 game. Much like the 8-9. Heck much like the 5-12 game

GoHogzzGo

Quote from: King Kong on March 12, 2018, 08:40:35 am
Vegas is trying to make money and they know come Tournament time people will lay down money on names like Butler, Witcha St and Gonzaga

I did wonder this as well. Butler is a well known tournament name now. With public money coming in on them.

Most people don’t know this is the first year there for their coach, who also did not have great first year coaching the year prior at Milkewaukee. Although he did have a big conference tournament run there.
Success isn't permanent and failure isn't fatal.

Hawg Red


txkhog

If Hogs bring it like 2nd half against Florida they can beat Butler and Purdue. But if it's dribble around till shot clock is low and jack a 3 it's one and done. Match up zone and bang the boards is key.

itsonlyagame

Never underestimate an Indiana basketball team that plays its home games in the arena where they filmed the final scene of "Hoosiers".

old_school_hawg

Quote from: txkhog on March 12, 2018, 09:36:05 am
If Hogs bring it like 2nd half against Florida they can beat Butler and Purdue. But if it's dribble around till shot clock is low and jack a 3 it's one and done. Match up zone and bang the boards is key.
^^^^^this.
"I tried being reasonable. I didn't like it."-Clint Eastwood

"Life is hard. It's harder if you're stupid." -John Wayne

steveaustin69

Quote from: OldTimeHawg on March 11, 2018, 10:13:34 pm
Don't forget this when thinking about these matchups as well.  No computer model can ever predict the chip on the shoulder a team has, and Arkansas has a MAJOR drive this year.  I think they are the most motivated and focused team coming into the tournament.  I think you are going to see some kind of Arkansas team on Friday.

The vaunted chip on shoulder; always makes me laugh.

Hawg Red

March 12, 2018, 09:59:16 am #83 Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 10:14:33 am by Hawg Red
Quote from: itsonlyagame on March 12, 2018, 09:43:53 am
Never underestimate an Indiana basketball team that plays its home games in the arena where they filmed the final scene of "Hoosiers".

They're the betting favorite. They aren't being underestimated. I also wouldn't underestimate a team coached by someone who has never lost in the the first round as the higher seed.

phadedhawg

I agree that our team should benefit with a little adding motivation.  A 7/10 game is not much different than the 8/9.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it move towards Arkansas before Friday.  Maybe even odds by tip off.

jgphillips3

Quote from: King Kong on March 12, 2018, 08:41:55 am
7-10 is basically a 50-50 game. Much like the 8-9. Heck much like the 5-12 game

That 5-12 is often dangerous because that 12 is usually a really good mid-major.

Corkscrew Johnson

Quote from: 010HogFan on March 11, 2018, 10:08:31 pm
If it weren't for that 'questionable' call at the end, we were on the ropes. Again, far from overrated.

On the ropes?  Haha we were holding the ball with a lead with less than 20 seconds left, waiting to be fouled, to shoot free throws to secure the win.  The intentional foul call just made it a done deal. 

GuvHog

Quote from: MemphisBossHog on March 12, 2018, 06:11:39 am
this is a tough draw for an opening game to be sure.  Butler is no joke, but if Hogs can pull this one out, they have a decent shot at making sweet 16.  Thank God we dont have North Carolina sitting there waiting on us if we do win.  LOL.                  jk

Arkansas has:

(A) One of the best back court combinations in college basketball.

(B) A 6'11" NBA big man

(C) a significant height advantage over Butler

(D) A deeper bench than Butler

This Butler team is pretty good but they are not as good as most Butler teams in the past have been. The Hogs should win this one.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

Triple T

They deserve it, I mean they did beat Villanova 3 months ago and are 86-1 in their last 9 first round games. Nevermind the fact that they have only beaten 3 tournament teams since Villanova and all of them are an 8 seed or lower, or that they have a Head Coach who has no postseason experience (as a head coach).

7 out of our last 8 games have been against NCAAT teams, we were a couple of bad calls away from upsetting the eventual National Champion in the tourney last year. Hell we're 3-0 in our last 3 first round games. I don't doubt this will be a tough game, but the people thinking that Butler is going to win just because of name recognition and a fluke upset 3+ months ago are cray cray.

Science Fiction Greg


Man, I hate losing BPI games.  There's always next year I guess.
I spend all my time playing Trackmania, and various board games. You might remember me as Corndog7 or PossibleOatmeal.
Twitter sucks now. I deleted my account. I mostly just use TikTok now.

Science Fiction Greg

Quote from: Corkscrew Johnson on March 12, 2018, 10:59:35 am
On the ropes?  Haha we were holding the ball with a lead with less than 20 seconds left, waiting to be fouled, to shoot free throws to secure the win.  The intentional foul call just made it a done deal.

Not mention, it wasn't even questionable.  A bunch of mouth-breathers that don't know the rule questioning it doesn't mean it is questionable.
I spend all my time playing Trackmania, and various board games. You might remember me as Corndog7 or PossibleOatmeal.
Twitter sucks now. I deleted my account. I mostly just use TikTok now.

hogsanity

Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on March 12, 2018, 12:33:02 am
Seriously has many of you have watched Butler play this year? I have..are they bad? No. can they beat us? Yes. But I'm pretty confident by watching each tem we should win. Absolutely nothing to be afraid of.

Butler does not really do the things well that usually cause the Hogs problems. They are not a great 3pt shooting team, they are not killers on the boards, and the couple times I watched them the last two weeks their PG does not seem special.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Corkscrew Johnson

Mike Anderson's system typically struggles with teams who have good guard play and don't get rattled under pressure.  If you are cool, calm, and collected, and you pass the ball well, you are going to get open shots against us.  That's one reason we don't fare as well on the road; people are more comfortable at their own house are less likely to get rattled. 

Throw that all out the window in the tourney, when teams play tight.  We will see more defensive intensity than we've seen all season.  Even if we get down early, this will be a scrap to the finish.  I think they will fold under pressure. 

You saw it last year against UNC, they probably had the best backcourt in the country, and if Adrio Bailey had been .0001 seconds faster on that steal attempt that turned into a foul, he would have had a breakaway dunk and that game would have been over. 

hogcards

Quote from: Oliver on March 11, 2018, 08:33:33 pm
Fivethirtyeight.com has Butler as having a 60% chance of reaching round 2. 

Vegas, Power Rankings, and statistical models not loving us

Yea

Likelihood of Winning in the First Round:

90.75%- Tennessee
79.88%- Auburn
75.74%- Kentucky
65.89%- Florida
58.21%- Texas A&M
40.68%- Alabama
39.62%- Arkansas
38.57%- Missouri

Chances of Winning 1st AND 2nd Round Games:

59.44%- Tennessee
41.76%- Auburn
39.83%- Kentucky
31.76%- Florida
12.88%- Texas A&M
9.17%- Missouri
9.03%- Arkansas
4.96%- Alabama
"You have enemies? Good. It means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."~Winston Churchill

"Racist -- a person who wins an argument with a liberal."~Rush Limbaugh

#lgb
#mediaistheenemy
#stoleninarizona

mckinneyhog5

If BPI was correct then why are the Hogs a 7 seed and butler a 10 seed?
Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on April 07, 2019, 10:29:55 pmGuys, we have hired the BEST coach that we could have hired. Musselman is gonna rock it here like we haven't seen since the early 90's. Just sit back and watch it unfold! We WILL be a nationally recognized program again soon.

RacinRazorback

If the good razorback team shows up we will be good, but if the bad team shows up we get beat. Lets just pray the good team shows up! Go HAWGS!! WPS!!!!

hobhog

Quote from: GuvHog on March 12, 2018, 11:05:00 am
Arkansas has:

(A) One of the best back court combinations in college basketball.

(B) A 6'11" NBA big man

(C) a significant height advantage over Butler

(D) A deeper bench than Butler

This Butler team is pretty good but they are not as good as most Butler teams in the past have been. The Hogs should win this one.

That's why our season is such a head scratcher. After Gafford showed up early I thought we'd be much better with the senior guards. We have been so inconsistent it's hard to pick us.

hogsanity

Quote from: hobhog on March 12, 2018, 01:02:40 pm
That's why our season is such a head scratcher. After Gafford showed up early I thought we'd be much better with the senior guards. We have been so inconsistent it's hard to pick us.

Hogs have SR guards, but they are also SR guards that do not defend particularly well.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

OkieBack

Quote from: mckinneyhog5 on March 12, 2018, 12:33:02 am
Seriously has many of you have watched Butler play this year? I have..are they bad? No. can they beat us? Yes. But I'm pretty confident by watching each tem we should win. Absolutely nothing to be afraid of.

Fear?  No.  Take them lightly?  Better not even think we have an edge somehow.  Every game has to have focus, intense defense, and smart shot selection by everyone.  Don't be timid.  Go do your thang and it will work out.  That said, Hogs by 8.

nwahogfan1

Butler defensive style of play is usually more consistent and usually better in the NCAAT than Arkansas defensive style unless Butler does not shoot the 3 ball well.  Butler will try to force a slower pace.  We will give up open outside shots hoping for quick shots that are misses and up tempo play.  Of course if teams are hitting it is bad strategy.  Tn was hitting and Florida was not.