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Coaching Searches Aren’t Science

Started by Razorfox, October 29, 2017, 03:29:03 pm

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Razorfox

October 29, 2017, 03:29:03 pm Last Edit: October 30, 2017, 12:01:29 pm by Razorfox
I'm convinced that there is a ton of luck to successful football coaching searches. Look at two SEC East examples right now; Jones at UT and McElwain at UF. They fit the mold of almost almost every poster on this board's desires. They have offensive backgrounds, were considered up and comers, and had done great jobs at their previous head coaching jobs. Yet, by all accounts they are failures at two programs that have many built in advantages.

I'm not even sure what my point is on this other than I can't stand the level of sentiment on this board that if you were in charge, things would be so perfect and easy and AR would never lose. Yet, in these two examples, if you were the ADs that had made those decisions people just like you would be calling for your jobs.

I think also this is why I'm not anti-Long for his hiring of CBB. It hasn't worked out, but you can't fault him for what he did because you wouldn't have done any better in most cases.

rhames

Most level headed people would agree with you.


Although McElwain, while may be it was ugly, was somewhat successful. I think that may bite Flordia in the end.
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Quote from: Hamdsome 1 on September 05, 2023, 06:43:26 pmSTHU. I get in more steps per day, at work, than you could possibly fathom.
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Inhogswetrust

Anyone that thinks otherwise has never hired anyone or has gone nuts since then.
If I'm going to cheer players and coaches in victory, I damn sure ought to be man enough to stand with them in defeat.

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Oklahawg

I led a hiring search last spring. Told my team that our finalists presented us an odd choice: a "ready to go" candidate who might cap out at B+, a "green as green can be" who hints at being a rock star, A+ hire, a veteran who was not splashy who was going to go through the motions for a few years and then retire having capped out as a C- candidate, and another finalist who slipped through our vetting process and was really wanting a different position than the one we advertised (a D type candidate in my book, as a result).

We went with the B+ candidate and they've been a home run employee. Amazing productivity and a fantastic fit with the people around them.

Who knows what a coaching hire actually produces, and we have to remember we'll never know about the finalists who don't get the gig.
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

East Clintwood

Quote from: Razorfox on October 29, 2017, 03:29:03 pm
I'm convinced that there is a ton of luck to successful football coaching searches. Look at two SEC East examples right now; Jones at UT and McElwain at UF. They fit the mold of almost almost every poster on this board's desires. They have offensive backgrounds, were considered up and comers, and had done great jobs at their previous head coaching jobs. Yet, by all accounts they are failures at two programs that have many built in advantages.

I'm not even sure what my point is on this other than I can't stand the level of sentiment on this board that if you were in charge, things would be so perfect and easy and AR would never lose. Yet, in these two examples, if you were the ADs that had made those decisions people just like you would be calling for your jobs.

I think also this is why I'm not anti-Long for his hiring of CBB. It hasn't worked out, but you can't fault him for what he did because you wouldn't have done any better in most cases.


I agree there's a lot of luck involved but also some people are better at it than others.

Jeff Long has a long history of hiring failures (or almost hiring failures) dating all the way back to Pitt.  He's demonstrated repeatedly that he sucks at choosing a successful head  coach.
Any dog can be a seeing eye dog if you don't care where you're going.

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Karma

Bama was turned down by RichRod when they ended up hiring Saban. I'd say they lucked out.

Razorfox

Quote from: East Clintwood on October 29, 2017, 09:14:51 pm

I agree there's a lot of luck involved but also some people are better at it than others.

Jeff Long has a long history of hiring failures (or almost hiring failures) dating all the way back to Pitt.  He's demonstrated repeatedly that he sucks at choosing a successful head  coach.

The reality is that there are very few coaches that have consistently won at a high level over a long period of time.  Unless an AD hired Saban, Meyer, Sweeny, Fisher, or Patterson, they have missed completely at worst or have had a coach with a few successful years mixed with unsuccessful at best.   

DeltaBoy

Sometimes I believe it more Luck , Many don't know we were bringing the Bear to the Hill right before Japan bombed Pearl Harbor.
If the South should lose, it means that the history of the heroic struggle will be written by the enemy, that our youth will be trained by Northern school teachers, will be impressed by all of the influences of history and education to regard our gallant dead as traitors and our maimed veterans as fit subjects for derision.
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East Clintwood

Quote from: DeltaBoy on October 30, 2017, 11:21:59 am
Sometimes I believe it more Luck , Many don't know we were bringing the Bear to the Hill right before Japan bombed Pearl Harbor.


.
Any dog can be a seeing eye dog if you don't care where you're going.

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Wildhog

I agree on McElwain.  Jones has just followed Brian Kelly around his entire career and maintained what he built at CMU and Cincy.  I've never liked Jones.

Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

hogsanity

BB is proof of this, maybe the best example in the country right now. Everything looked like he was a great hire. 3 BIG10 titles, well liked by recruits and among his peers and media. But no one knows how a coach from school A will translate to school B. Recruiting area is different, competition is different, social and economics are different. School perception is different.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Grag T

Quote from: hogsanity on October 30, 2017, 11:34:52 am
BB is proof of this, maybe the best example in the country right now. Everything looked like he was a great hire. 3 BIG10 titles, well liked by recruits and among his peers and media. But no one knows how a coach from school A will translate to school B. Recruiting area is different, competition is different, social and economics are different. School perception is different.

100% true.
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Wildhog

Quote from: hogsanity on October 30, 2017, 11:34:52 am
BB is proof of this, maybe the best example in the country right now. Everything looked like he was a great hire. 3 BIG10 titles, well liked by recruits and among his peers and media. But no one knows how a coach from school A will translate to school B. Recruiting area is different, competition is different, social and economics are different. School perception is different.

Turns out Wisconsin is just a much better situation than Arkansas.  We need someone that has proven the ability to take over a dumpster fire and win.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

 

ShadowHawg

CBB was a good hire in the sense that he had a strong resume and was from a successful program in a P5 conference.

He was a terrible hire in that his style was 180 degrees from the available talent already in the program. That alone requires a lengthy retooling process.

Furthermore, the college game was already evolving away from the system CBB employees. Even Saban had started moving away from that approach, although not completely.

By the time he retooled here, it was clear that the game had passed his system by. Anyone paying attention to trends of the game should have been able to see it.


Razorfox

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 11:24:06 am
I agree on McElwain.  Jones has just followed Brian Kelly around his entire career and maintained what he built at CMU and Cincy.  I've never liked Jones.



Random thoughts on this:

1) Lots of people on here wanted Jones instead of CBB.

2) Several of the "hot names" today also are one or two years into their current gigs living off the previous guy.  It's too early to tell if they will work out in the long-term or not.

3) Even Petrino followed JLS at Louisville and just built off his unprecedented success there.  (I'm not saying Petrino didn't ultimately make his own success too, but at that time, who could have said for certain).

I think it just goes to show that it's not science and there are too many factors at play for ADs to have "can't misses" or be made to look like idiots when it doesn't work. 

Wildhog

I'm to the point that if you're a successful head coach at a strong P5 program, and you want to make the move to Arkansas, then what the hell is wrong with you?  There must be something we're missing, ha.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Razorfox

Quote from: ShadowHawg on October 30, 2017, 11:43:28 am
CBB was a good hire in the sense that he had a strong resume and was from a successful program in a P5 conference.

He was a terrible hire in that his style was 180 degrees from the available talent already in the program. That alone requires a lengthy retooling process.

Furthermore, the college game was already evolving away from the system CBB employees. Even Saban had started moving away from that approach, although not completely.

By the time he retooled here, it was clear that the game had passed his system by. Anyone paying attention to trends of the game should have been able to see it.


Yet, that outdated system beat Jones (once) and Freeze (several times) head-to-head.  These are some of the names that people here wanted badly simply due to their systems and success at smaller programs.   

hogsanity

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 11:42:14 am
Turns out Wisconsin is just a much better situation than Arkansas.  We need someone that has proven the ability to take over a dumpster fire and win.

To me, until a guy is winning WITH ALL HIS OWN PLAYERS no one knows what he is going to do. Campbell seems like he is on the way at ISU, but all of his upperclassmen are another guys recruits.

This happens all the time, coach A spends a few years building a team, signs a good group of players, then is canned when they are Fr or sophs. NEw guy comes in and has the benefit of a core group of upperclassmen with experience.

HDN did that here. Ford had actually built a D, and had taken his lumps playing young guys on offense as Fr and sphs ( Clint, Lucas, Davenport, Hill, Eubanks to name a few ). HDN comes in, these guys are all battle tested and he reaped the rewards.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

hogsanity

Quote from: Razorfox on October 30, 2017, 11:45:55 am
Yet, that outdated system beat Jones (once) and Freeze (several times) head-to-head.  These are some of the names that people here wanted badly simply due to their systems and success at smaller programs.   

They want anyone that they think is going to throw 40+ times a game and run "tempo".

ANY OFFENSE WILL WORK IF YOU HAVE THE PLAYERS.  But not just any offense will excite the fans. Many people think Bama runs a boring offense, because they do. Boring, but highly effective.
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Wildhog

Quote from: hogsanity on October 30, 2017, 11:47:38 am
To me, until a guy is winning WITH ALL HIS OWN PLAYERS no one knows what he is going to do. Campbell seems like he is on the way at ISU, but all of his upperclassmen are another guys recruits.

This happens all the time, coach A spends a few years building a team, signs a good group of players, then is canned when they are Fr or sophs. NEw guy comes in and has the benefit of a core group of upperclassmen with experience.

HDN did that here. Ford had actually built a D, and had taken his lumps playing young guys on offense as Fr and sphs ( Clint, Lucas, Davenport, Hill, Eubanks to name a few ). HDN comes in, these guys are all battle tested and he reaped the rewards.

His upperclassmen all came from some pretty horrid classes.  Like...awful classes.  Rhoads' last two classes both finished last in the Big 12 (behind KANSAS).  Campbell's made huge improvements in recruiting so far, so that should show up on the field in the coming years (if he were to stay.)
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

ShadowHawg

Quote from: Razorfox on October 30, 2017, 11:45:55 am
Yet, that outdated system beat Jones (once) and Freeze (several times) head-to-head.  These are some of the names that people here wanted badly simply due to their systems and success at smaller programs.

No one said it couldn't win ANY games. But it won't win at a high level anymore.

You could throw out that he hasn't beat Sumlin. Is 50/50 with Mizzou. One win against Auburn. .500 with Miss St and had his best success against another dinosaur approach at LSU.

It's not about style. It's about winning.

Wildhog

Quote from: ShadowHawg on October 30, 2017, 11:55:04 am
No one said it couldn't win ANY games. But it won't win at a high level anymore.

You could throw out that he hasn't beat Sumlin. Is 50/50 with Mizzou. One win against Auburn. .500 with Miss St and had his best success against another dinosaur approach at LSU.

It's not about style. It's about winning.

It can absolutely win at a high level if you've got an elite offensive line.  You're going to suck if you don't, though.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Razorfox

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 11:52:15 am
His upperclassmen all came from some pretty horrid classes.  Like...awful classes.  Rhoads' last two classes both finished last in the Big 12 (behind KANSAS).  Campbell's made huge improvements in recruiting so far, so that should show up on the field in the coming years (if he were to stay.)

So are you a recruiting rankings are gospel person or do you lean toward having them re-ranked after they graduate? 

ShadowHawg

Quote from: hogsanity on October 30, 2017, 11:49:49 am
They want anyone that they think is going to throw 40+ times a game and run "tempo".

ANY OFFENSE WILL WORK IF YOU HAVE THE PLAYERS.  But not just any offense will excite the fans. Many people think Bama runs a boring offense, because they do. Boring, but highly effective.

LSU had the players but Miles' anitquated approach held them back. So much for any system working if you have the talent.

Bama moved on from whatever you think they used to do a few years back. Not a good example.

 

Wildhog

Quote from: Razorfox on October 30, 2017, 11:56:18 am
So are you a recruiting rankings are gospel person or do you lean toward having them re-ranked after they graduate? 

I don't put a lot of stock into stars.  I look at offers.  The majority of the time, they correspond pretty closely.  There are some exceptions.  However, those last two Paul Rhoads classes were objectively horrible.  Not a lot in offers or stars.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

ShadowHawg

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 11:52:15 am
His upperclassmen all came from some pretty horrid classes.  Like...awful classes.  Rhoads' last two classes both finished last in the Big 12 (behind KANSAS).  Campbell's made huge improvements in recruiting so far, so that should show up on the field in the coming years (if he were to stay.)

Thing is that his upperclassmen are the biproduct of Rhoads and him. When they leave the program there could be a 180 as his own recruits could be missing out an important aspect that Rhoads may have instilled in his. It could be that the combination of perspectives is what is leading to the onfield success. We saw that here with Nutt.

Once Ford's players were out of the system the team lacked toughness. Could be the same at Iowa St.

Letsroll1200

The Arkansas 2019 class has three kids that could be program changers. Henry, Burks and Thomas. We need to get a coach that will come in and get on these kids real soon.

Wildhog

Quote from: ShadowHawg on October 30, 2017, 12:00:37 pm
Thing is that his upperclassmen are the biproduct of Rhoads and him. When they leave the program there could be a 180 as his own recruits could be missing out an important aspect that Rhoads may have instilled in his. It could be that the combination of perspectives is what is leading to the onfield success. We saw that here with Nutt.

Once Ford's players were out of the system the team lacked toughness. Could be the same at Iowa St.

He won at a high level with his own recruits at Toledo. 
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Razorfox

Quote from: ShadowHawg on October 30, 2017, 12:00:37 pm
Thing is that his upperclassmen are the biproduct of Rhoads and him. When they leave the program there could be a 180 as his own recruits could be missing out an important aspect that Rhoads may have instilled in his. It could be that the combination of perspectives is what is leading to the onfield success. We saw that here with Nutt.

Once Ford's players were out of the system the team lacked toughness. Could be the same at Iowa St.

I agree with this.  That's the whole point of my thread is that for anyone who thinks they can just look at some coach(es) and know that they could just pick someone and that it will work out, is kidding themselves. 

For example, you might say, well, the coach at Iowa State is doing really great this year.  And I could answer back, well it's because a) the recruiting class rankings previously were just wrong, or b) the Big 12 is weaker than we think, or c) it doesn't matter because CBB did great in his previous program before coming to Arkansas and still failed. 

Or I could reverse the situation and apply what many on this board look for (great offense, SEC experience, up-and-comer, coached under some other big name coach, killed it in his previous conference, etc.) and show that Saban would never have been hired by LSU from Michigan State with those necessary qualifications.   


Razorfox

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 12:02:31 pm
He won at a high level with his own recruits at Toledo. 

So did CBB at Wisconsin. 

And you'll respond that it was really because of the AD, or because the Big 12 was weak, etc.  And I could probably apply all those (maybe not the AD one) to Toledo as well. 

IT'S NOT SCIENCE!

Wildhog

Quote from: Razorfox on October 30, 2017, 12:09:05 pm
I agree with this.  That's the whole point of my thread is that for anyone who thinks they can just look at some coach(es) and know that they could just pick someone and that it will work out, is kidding themselves. 

For example, you might say, well, the coach at Iowa State is doing really great this year.  And I could answer back, well it's because a) the recruiting class rankings previously were just wrong, or b) the Big 12 is weaker than we think, or c) it doesn't matter because CBB did great in his previous program before coming to Arkansas and still failed. 

Or I could reverse the situation and apply what many on this board look for (great offense, SEC experience, up-and-comer, coached under some other big name coach, killed it in his previous conference, etc.) and show that Saban would never have been hired by LSU from Michigan State with those necessary qualifications.   



You can make these arguments against pretty much anyone.

I honestly don't know what the hell else you want the guy to do.  He's winning at Iowa State for ****'s sake.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Wildhog

Quote from: Razorfox on October 30, 2017, 12:10:24 pm
So did CBB at Wisconsin. 

And you'll respond that it was really because of the AD, or because the Big 12 was weak, etc.  And I could probably apply all those (maybe not the AD one) to Toledo as well. 

IT'S NOT SCIENCE!

Of course it's not science.  You find a guy that makes sense for your situation and hope for the best.  At Arkansas, we need a guy that can do way more with way less.  Campbell has a proven ability to do that.

Out of curiosity, who's on your wish list?
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Razorfox

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 12:11:20 pm
You can make these arguments against pretty much anyone.

I honestly don't know what the hell else you want the guy to do.  He's winning at Iowa State for ****'s sake.

I'm not saying he's not good.  I'm just saying you have no actual idea if it will continue or if it would translate to Arkansas.  To mention nothing of the fact that he might not want to come here.

That's it.   

ShadowHawg

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 12:02:31 pm
He won at a high level with his own recruits at Toledo.

Toledo isn't a P5 conference. Most of his wins came inside the Mac. He only averaged 2 wins a season outside the Mac.

He didn't take the Iowa St job because he was ultra successful. He is a mixed bag at best at this point of his career.

Lady Razorback

Quote from: hogsanity on October 30, 2017, 11:47:38 am
To me, until a guy is winning WITH ALL HIS OWN PLAYERS no one knows what he is going to do. Campbell seems like he is on the way at ISU, but all of his upperclassmen are another guys recruits.

This happens all the time, coach A spends a few years building a team, signs a good group of players, then is canned when they are Fr or sophs. NEw guy comes in and has the benefit of a core group of upperclassmen with experience.

HDN did that here. Ford had actually built a D, and had taken his lumps playing young guys on offense as Fr and sphs ( Clint, Lucas, Davenport, Hill, Eubanks to name a few ). HDN comes in, these guys are all battle tested and he reaped the rewards.

After 5 years however, not having your players is a tired excuse and really doesn't make sense. You have 4 years of your players at a minimum.
I have long said this point about Ford.

Wildhog

Quote from: ShadowHawg on October 30, 2017, 12:14:15 pm
Toledo isn't a P5 conference. Most of his wins came inside the Mac. He only averaged 2 wins a season outside the Mac.

He didn't take the Iowa St job because he was ultra successful. He is a mixed bag at best at this point of his career.

Who do you prefer?
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Razorfox

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 12:12:19 pm
Of course it's not science.  You find a guy that makes sense for your situation and hope for the best.  At Arkansas, we need a guy that can do way more with way less.  Campbell has a proven ability to do that.

Out of curiosity, who's on your wish list?

No clue.  If you go back to my OP, I said part of my reason for writing the post is because I can't stand message board geniuses that call for ADs to be fired (or worse) and assume they themselves are geniuses at every little thing, when if you study their post histories and/or qualifications they wanted to go after, it would have led them to Butch Jones (lost head-to-head to CBB), Jim McElwain (lost head-to-head to CBB), etc.  Maybe they're not so smart after all and could be a little less nasty in tearing others down and building themselves up. 

Wildhog

Quote from: Razorfox on October 30, 2017, 12:20:00 pm
No clue.  If you go back to my OP, I said part of my reason for writing the post is because I can't stand message board geniuses that call for ADs to be fired (or worse) and assume they themselves are geniuses at every little thing, when if you study their post histories and/or qualifications they wanted to go after, it would have led them to Butch Jones (lost head-to-head to CBB), Jim McElwain (lost head-to-head to CBB), etc.  Maybe they're not so smart after all and could be a little less nasty in tearing others down and building themselves up. 

I honestly haven't seen any nastiness regarding coach preferences.
Arkansas Razorbacks Football National Championships:
1909/1964/1965/1977

Cinco de Hogo

Quote from: Oklahawg on October 29, 2017, 09:07:24 pm
I led a hiring search last spring. Told my team that our finalists presented us an odd choice: a "ready to go" candidate who might cap out at B+, a "green as green can be" who hints at being a rock star, A+ hire, a veteran who was not splashy who was going to go through the motions for a few years and then retire having capped out as a C- candidate, and another finalist who slipped through our vetting process and was really wanting a different position than the one we advertised (a D type candidate in my book, as a result).

We went with the B+ candidate and they've been a home run employee. Amazing productivity and a fantastic fit with the people around them.

Who knows what a coaching hire actually produces, and we have to remember we'll never know about the finalists who don't get the gig.

Did you choose the employee based on a careful study or knowledge of what your company needed or did you choose based on best education(sometime the #1 criteria).  I think this was Long's mistake, he got caught up in B's education per se, and didn't at all consider the needs of the position or the expectations of the customer. 

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: ShadowHawg on October 30, 2017, 11:43:28 am

He was a terrible hire in that his style was 180 degrees from the available talent already in the program. That alone requires a lengthy retooling process.

Furthermore, the college game was already evolving away from the system CBB employees. Even Saban had started moving away from that approach, although not completely.

By the time he retooled here, it was clear that the game had passed his system by. Anyone paying attention to trends of the game should have been able to see it.

180 degrees would have been an Air Raid coach or Briles tree.  If recruiting had been done well on the offensive side to what the previous coach wanted - big, powerful RB's, pro style qb's, versatile oline who could pass and run block, TE's who could be effective in the passing game and WR's who could stretch the field - then the transition wouldn't have been much of a difference.  Certainly not a 180.  Problem was the numbers, depth, experience and talent wasn't there at many of these positions.  And had a little exodus over 2012 and 2013 offseason.  If we go Norvell, Gus or his protege Morris or the like, then we are starting to go towards that 180. 

Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

Razorfox

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 12:12:19 pm
Of course it's not science.  You find a guy that makes sense for your situation and hope for the best.  At Arkansas, we need a guy that can do way more with way less.  Campbell has a proven ability to do that.

Out of curiosity, who's on your wish list?

Actually that's not true, I probably have some people on my "wish list".  That being said, I try to balance my desire with reality. 

There is a 99.9999% chance that the sure things will never happen, i.e. Saban or Meyer for us. 

Then there are the slightly less sure things, but they are also successful at their current programs, which we probably have about a 90% chance of never getting.  Names like Patterson, Dantonio, or Sweeny.  This is the reason that CBB was such a big deal because he fit in this group! 

The next group would be the "hot names" list like Matt Campbell, who isn't a sure thing, but shows promise.  The problem there is that if he's a hot name, everybody else is going to be going after him too.  And I'm not convinced that Arkansas can beat out the Floridas or Tennessees of the world (unless there is something else at play like alumni, family connection, etc.) for those guys (25% chance at best). 

Which leads us to "has beens" like Les Miles, a "he's done OK along the way" like Skip Holtz, or a hot coordinator.  And when you get down to these realistic guys, you have NO IDEA what you're going to get as far as success at a school like Arkansas.   

hogsanity

Quote from: Lady Razorback on October 30, 2017, 12:14:23 pm
After 5 years however, not having your players is a tired excuse and really doesn't make sense. You have 4 years of your players at a minimum.
I have long said this point about Ford.

Which is why I said see what a guy does once he gets all his own players and is not riding the recruiting of another coach. Ford went 8-5 his 3rd season then regressed to 4-7 and 4-7. It was time for him to go, BUT HDN did benefit from the work Ford did in recruiting some very good talent. 
People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball.  I will tell you what I do. I stare out the window, and I wait for spring.

"Anything goes wrong, anything at all, your fault, my fault, nobodies fault, I'm going to blow your head off."  John Wayne in BIG JAKE

Razorfox

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 12:21:14 pm
I honestly haven't seen any nastiness regarding coach preferences.

Are you kidding?  Long is called everything but a white man because he hired CBB. 

Ex-Trumpet

Quote from: Razorfox on October 30, 2017, 12:33:11 pm
Are you kidding?  Long is called everything but a white man because he hired CBB. 

Pretty sure carpetbaggers were white!
Do dyslexic, agnostic insomniacs lie awake at night wondering if there really is a dog?

Cinco de Hogo

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on October 30, 2017, 12:29:43 pm
180 degrees would have been an Air Raid coach or Briles tree.  If recruiting had been done well on the offensive side to what the previous coach wanted - big, powerful RB's, pro style qb's, versatile oline who could pass and run block, TE's who could be effective in the passing game and WR's who could stretch the field - then the transition wouldn't have been much of a difference.  Certainly not a 180.  Problem was the numbers, depth, experience and talent wasn't there at many of these positions.  And had a little exodus over 2012 and 2013 offseason.  If we go Norvell, Gus or his protege Morris or the like, then we are starting to go towards that 180.

No because the same things you point out are still true in reverse as it may be.  With Chaney and Enos we have never been a straight Wisky offense.  Other than overall team speed the next coach will walk into a situation pretty close to what a similar coach would have walked into in 2012.  A coach NOT named Smiley of course but one like the ones you mentioned.

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: Cinco de Hogo on October 30, 2017, 12:35:24 pm
No because the same things you point out are still true in reverse as it may be.  With Chaney and Enos we have never been a straight Wisky offense.  Other than overall team speed the next coach will walk into a situation pretty close to what a similar coach would have walked into in 2012.  A coach NOT named Smiley of course but one like the ones you mentioned.

I didn't say we were.  We've passed more than Bielema's Wisconsin teams did and run less. 

What are saying no to?  That Petrino didn't recruit to those type of players for his pro style offense?  The difference in the system was Petrino passed more to setup the run and wanted the big backs to eat clock and finish games in the second half.  It was not a 180  - or shouldn't have been.  The 180 to his system is coming with this next hire. 
Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys. 

Cinco de Hogo

Quote from: Atlhogfan1 on October 30, 2017, 12:38:25 pm
I didn't say we were.  We've passed more than Bielema's Wisconsin teams did and run less. 

What are saying no to?  That Petrino didn't recruit to those type of players for his pro style offense?  The difference in the system was Petrino passed more to setup the run and wanted the big backs to eat clock and finish games in the second half.  It was not a 180  - or shouldn't have been.  The 180 is coming with this next hire.

Your last sentence, the components are there to run a power spread or even more pass heavy offense.  If you don't think so we can disagree and set back and watch what happens if we hire a Mike Leach type.  Gus Malazhn would think he was in heaven...except with our defense.

island hog

Quote from: Wildhog on October 30, 2017, 11:42:14 am
Turns out Wisconsin is just a much better situation than Arkansas.  We need someone that has proven the ability to take over a dumpster fire and win.
You may be right but the fans will need to have thick skin because there will be more downs than ups early on, assuming significant scheme changes, getting into recruiting territories, etc.  That's why it's different at schools where the incoming coach is taking over something that's already built... expectations for those coaches should be higher.  Taking over a 'dumpster fire' requires that the fans and admin give the new coach and staff some rope.

island hog

Quote from: Razorfox on October 30, 2017, 11:56:18 am
So are you a recruiting rankings are gospel person or do you lean toward having them re-ranked after they graduate? 
You raise a very good point... development is the holy grail of success in college ball.

Atlhogfan1

Quote from: Cinco de Hogo on October 30, 2017, 12:42:58 pm
Your last sentence, the components are there to run a power spread or even more pass heavy offense.  If you don't think so we can disagree and set back and watch what happens if we hire a Mike Leach type.

Leach runs a power spread? 

Quote from: MaconBacon on March 22, 2018, 10:30:04 amWe had a good run in the 90's and one NC and now the whole state still laments that we are a top seed program and have kids standing in line to come to good ole Arkansas.  We're just a flash in the pan boys.