Road to the Kentucky Derby

[userpick]

Some thorograph analysis with very minimal handicapping. Keep in mind, this is just for the win spot(pick 4,5,6,etc) and not rounding out the tris and supers.

1) Magnum Moon- debuted in January and ran a 1. Predictable bounce in his second career start against a mediocre field at Tampa. Won the Rebel as he ran a 0.5, which is a pair-up on thorograph. Ran a 1.75 in a weak Arkansas Derby race. The good news is he's lightly raced and hasn't developed a ton yet, and the Ark Derby didn't take a lot out of him. Pletcher seems to have changed his derby program up the past couple of years and it wouldn't surprise me if this one runs big next weekend. He does have that mid stretch drift which is a cause for concern. That's not a distance thing, but very well could be a physical issue, which wouldn't be great. Will have to move forward to win. Contender.

2) Good Magic- a very interesting horse. Ran a career best -0.5 in his Blue Grass win that a lot of people didn't like visually. That new best figure is a slight top from his previous best and that's a great pattern if you're a thorograph believer. Throw in he will be making his 3rd start off the layoff, I believe he will run the best race of his life. He also has the most intelligent trainer in the sport which is a major plus. I'm not sure if he will improve enough to make him my top pick, but he's definitely going to offer the most value in the race IMO at what could be 15-1 odds. Major contender.

3) Audible- A very nice horse indeed. He seems to have developed a ton already, which isn't ideal going into the Derby. He got a great trip in the Florida Derby and that helped him receive a big thorograph figure of -1. He fits on numbers, but I'm going to let him beat me.

4) Noble Indy- one of the few horses in the field that didn't have an ideal trip in their most recent derby prep. He's probably better than people will give him credit for, but he's going to have to make a major jump forward to have a chance to win this race. Toss.

5) Vino Rosso- my early pick for the Belmont. He improved a ton in New York, as a lot of Pletcher horses do. Ran a very big figure (-1) and now will almost certainly have to back up in the Derby. He will sit out the Preakness and then be sitting on a big effort in the Belmont Stakes. Backup tickets only.

6) Bolt D'Oro- When he won his grade 1 back in September, it looked like he was a lock in the derby if he stayed healthy. He ran a -1.5 that day. He had a terrible trip in the BC Juvenile and that race should be a toss IMO. He then missed some time with some soundness issues and hasn't ran nearly as well this year as he did at 2. Losing to Justify doesn't bother me, because Bolt didn't even need that race so you can make a case for him not being fully cranked. The problem is he has an incompetent moron as a trainer. I don't trust him to move this horse forward in the biggest race of the year. For that, he's a toss to me.

7) Enticed- Appears to want a bit shorter distance and would have to improve considerably to have a chance. Toss.

8 Mendelssohn- The most intriguing horse in the race. He finally got on dirt and ran through his skin. Earning a -4.5 thorograph. This type of number has rarely been accomplished by ANY horse, let alone a 3 year old in March. There are reasons to try and beat this one. I don't believe as much in the foreign races figures as I do in America. Also there's no way he can run that race again. If he does, he may be the best horse of all time lol. But he doesn't have to run that race to win it. How much can he bounce and still win? I'm going to try and beat him on several tickets, but am definitely not leaving him off altogether. Major contender.

9) Justify- Lightly raced Baffert horse might be a freak. He earned a -1 in the SA Derby but couldn't have asked for a better trip. I can understand people playing against this one. He's sure to go off at a short price and not one I would bet to win, but one I have to use heavily in multi race wagers. Major contender.

10) Flameaway- hard trying horse that may have a nice career, but seems too slow at this point. Toss.

11) Solimini- goofy horse that seems to have more than what we've seen this year. Another one that could be okay down the road, assuming Baffert doesn't run him into the ground. Toss.

12) Bravazo- no chance, toss.

13) My Boy Jack- seems to be the wise guy horse. Has ran three straight 1.75's in a row, suggesting there may be a new best coming, but not sure that would be enough to get the top spot. Definitely one to use under though. Toss from win consideration.

14) Promises Fulfilled- 1/5 odds to be on the lead. Also a very likely last place finisher in this race. Toss.

15) Free Drop Billy- Another horse that I think could very possibly hit the board at a big price. Was making a decent move in the Blue Grass before that Lukas mule acted like an idiot. Slight new top figure of a 1, with perhaps room to improve. Not good enough to win, but never count out Romans at CD. Definite use underneath, but toss from win consideration.

16) Lone Sailor- With a best figure of 3.25, he's going to need to make a major move forward to have a chance to even hit the board. Toss.

17) Hofburg- another wise guy horse. Has only ran 3 times so definitely eligible to improve. Got a great setup/trip in Florida Derby leading to a 1 thorograph figure. Not for me in the derby. Toss.

18) Firenze Fire- too slow, toss.

19) Combatant- a solid horse who I believe will have a better overall career than Lookin at Lee, but too slow to win this race. Toss.

20) Gronkowski- LOL

[cbhawg03]

Some thorograph analysis with very minimal handicapping. Keep in mind, this is just for the win spot(pick 4,5,6,etc) and not rounding out the tris and supers.

1) Magnum Moon- debuted in January and ran a 1. Predictable bounce in his second career start against a mediocre field at Tampa. Won the Rebel as he ran a 0.5, which is a pair-up on thorograph. Ran a 1.75 in a weak Arkansas Derby race. The good news is he's lightly raced and hasn't developed a ton yet, and the Ark Derby didn't take a lot out of him. Pletcher seems to have changed his derby program up the past couple of years and it wouldn't surprise me if this one runs big next weekend. He does have that mid stretch drift which is a cause for concern. That's not a distance thing, but very well could be a physical issue, which wouldn't be great. Will have to move forward to win. Contender.

2) Good Magic- a very interesting horse. Ran a career best -0.5 in his Blue Grass win that a lot of people didn't like visually. That new best figure is a slight top from his previous best and that's a great pattern if you're a thorograph believer. Throw in he will be making his 3rd start off the layoff, I believe he will run the best race of his life. He also has the most intelligent trainer in the sport which is a major plus. I'm not sure if he will improve enough to make him my top pick, but he's definitely going to offer the most value in the race IMO at what could be 15-1 odds. Major contender.

3) Audible- A very nice horse indeed. He seems to have developed a ton already, which isn't ideal going into the Derby. He got a great trip in the Florida Derby and that helped him receive a big thorograph figure of -1. He fits on numbers, but I'm going to let him beat me.

4) Noble Indy- one of the few horses in the field that didn't have an ideal trip in their most recent derby prep. He's probably better than people will give him credit for, but he's going to have to make a major jump forward to have a chance to win this race. Toss.

5) Vino Rosso- my early pick for the Belmont. He improved a ton in New York, as a lot of Pletcher horses do. Ran a very big figure (-1) and now will almost certainly have to back up in the Derby. He will sit out the Preakness and then be sitting on a big effort in the Belmont Stakes. Backup tickets only.

6) Bolt D'Oro- When he won his grade 1 back in September, it looked like he was a lock in the derby if he stayed healthy. He ran a -1.5 that day. He had a terrible trip in the BC Juvenile and that race should be a toss IMO. He then missed some time with some soundness issues and hasn't ran nearly as well this year as he did at 2. Losing to Justify doesn't bother me, because Bolt didn't even need that race so you can make a case for him not being fully cranked. The problem is he has an incompetent moron as a trainer. I don't trust him to move this horse forward in the biggest race of the year. For that, he's a toss to me.

7) Enticed- Appears to want a bit shorter distance and would have to improve considerably to have a chance. Toss.

8 Mendelssohn- The most intriguing horse in the race. He finally got on dirt and ran through his skin. Earning a -4.5 thorograph. This type of number has rarely been accomplished by ANY horse, let alone a 3 year old in March. There are reasons to try and beat this one. I don't believe as much in the foreign races figures as I do in America. Also there's no way he can run that race again. If he does, he may be the best horse of all time lol. But he doesn't have to run that race to win it. How much can he bounce and still win? I'm going to try and beat him on several tickets, but am definitely not leaving him off altogether. Major contender.

9) Justify- Lightly raced Baffert horse might be a freak. He earned a -1 in the SA Derby but couldn't have asked for a better trip. I can understand people playing against this one. He's sure to go off at a short price and not one I would bet to win, but one I have to use heavily in multi race wagers. Major contender.

10) Flameaway- hard trying horse that may have a nice career, but seems too slow at this point. Toss.

11) Solimini- goofy horse that seems to have more than what we've seen this year. Another one that could be okay down the road, assuming Baffert doesn't run him into the ground. Toss.

12) Bravazo- no chance, toss.

13) My Boy Jack- seems to be the wise guy horse. Has ran three straight 1.75's in a row, suggesting there may be a new best coming, but not sure that would be enough to get the top spot. Definitely one to use under though. Toss from win consideration.

14) Promises Fulfilled- 1/5 odds to be on the lead. Also a very likely last place finisher in this race. Toss.

15) Free Drop Billy- Another horse that I think could very possibly hit the board at a big price. Was making a decent move in the Blue Grass before that Lukas mule acted like an idiot. Slight new top figure of a 1, with perhaps room to improve. Not good enough to win, but never count out Romans at CD. Definite use underneath, but toss from win consideration.

16) Lone Sailor- With a best figure of 3.25, he's going to need to make a major move forward to have a chance to even hit the board. Toss.

17) Hofburg- another wise guy horse. Has only ran 3 times so definitely eligible to improve. Got a great setup/trip in Florida Derby leading to a 1 thorograph figure. Not for me in the derby. Toss.

18) Firenze Fire- too slow, toss.

19) Combatant- a solid horse who I believe will have a better overall career than Lookin at Lee, but too slow to win this race. Toss.

20) Gronkowski- LOL

Can't even trust your analysis when you put LOL next to Gronk.  And claim to be a Pats fan

[userpick]

Can't even trust your analysis when you put LOL next to Gronk.  And claim to be a Pats fan

When they name one Tommy Terrific he will be my top choice, don't worry

[cbhawg03]

When they name one Tommy Terrific he will be my top choice, don't worry

There's the spirit.

When you buy Hogville's share of a horse that Moquett will train, see if you can pay extra to name it. 

[Russ22]

There's the spirit.

When you buy Hogville's share of a horse that Moquett will train, see if you can pay extra to name it. 

UP and I have the horse's name:  Sophie's Karate Stuff

:-)