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Look at the numbers..........

Started by razorhead5, December 21, 2017, 10:52:22 am

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Beached

Quote from: Oklahawg on December 23, 2017, 02:56:09 pm
This.

Bielema  was a firm believer in honoring the kids you offer as long as they are giving it effort. Not their fault they (a) didn't have that ability after all or (b) you couldn't "coach 'em up."

Only signed ONE academic casualty in 5 years, Jevon Pruitt. Spent years struggling to develop his coveted redshirt program due to poor depth (inherited, then exacerbated by not redshirting + the obligatory recruiting whiffs). Finally got there! And...lost his job that year.

I don't see anyone blaming players for Bert's bad decisions and inept methods.

MemphisBossHog

Quote from: redeye on December 21, 2017, 04:08:58 pm
Exactly!

And it's a good thing that we're not able to sign many players. Morris is taking over a well stocked cupboard, unlike when Bielema arrived.

Those who think otherwise, just don't understand.  We'd be in the same position, regardless of who we hired for our head coaching position, and we can sincerely thank Bielema for that.

It seems odd that we have fans pulling out their hair, because they don't understand the good position that we're in.  Morris could have arrived with half a team, like I think he did at SMU, and be forced to offer every player with at least 3 limbs.  Instead, he arrived with a well stocked team that only needed a few players.  The recruiting services will punish Arkansas for that, but that's their problem and not ours.
I was wondering about this.  BB made reference to the high percentage of yards and scoring and "production" for this past season's team that came from frosh and sophomores.  Could that mean that CCM is walking into a situation with some decent talent. 

A criticism of BB and his staff was not developing the talent they recruited and maybe CCM can do a better job of that.   ARK does have some nice receivers and players like TJ Hammonds and the like.  If CCM can figure out a good QB to run the scheme, maybe he can buy some time until he can get "his players" in the program.

 

Beached

Reference signing numbers from conference peers:

                          2017    2016   2015   2014   2013
Bama                   29         25      24       26       26
UGA                     26         23      30       21       34
LSU                      24         27      24       26       27
Auburn                 22         24      29       26       26
A&M                      28        21      27        22       32

and for fun a conference foe that cares this much "." about football -
Vandy                   20         21     19        23       27

If you're not recruiting to improve upon the players you already have, you're either a baseball/basketball school, or you don't belong in this conference. 

When you look at the numbers in this fashion taking into account the RESULTS Bert achieved with what he had recruited/developed, then you begin to realize the broader impact of the mess Bert was continuing to make with our program. 

We can hope together that CCM will be able to take what we have and turn in into something better than what Bert made of it.  Because of his pathetic efforts in weeding out under-performing athletes we really have little choice in the matter.

It's possible that CCM somehow pulls out something resembling a full class with what little talent remains on the board for February, and puts the existing players on notice.  Because then the only way numbers will work out is with the chaff exiting the program. 

ricepig

Quote from: Beached on December 23, 2017, 05:49:25 pm
Reference signing numbers from conference peers:

                          2017    2016   2015   2014   2013
Bama                   29         25      24       26       26
UGA                     26         23      30       21       34
LSU                      24         27      24       26       27
Auburn                 22         24      29       26       26
A&M                      28        21      27        22       32

and for fun a conference foe that cares this much "." about football -
Vandy                   20         21     19        23       27

If you're not recruiting to improve upon the players you already have, you're either a baseball/basketball school, or you don't belong in this conference. 

When you look at the numbers in this fashion taking into account the RESULTS Bert achieved with what he had recruited/developed, then you begin to realize the broader impact of the mess Bert was continuing to make with our program. 

We can hope together that CCM will be able to take what we have and turn in into something better than what Bert made of it.  Because of his pathetic efforts in weeding out under-performing athletes we really have little choice in the matter.

It's possible that CCM somehow pulls out something resembling a full class with what little talent remains on the board for February, and puts the existing players on notice.  Because then the only way numbers will work out is with the chaff exiting the program. 

Or, some players respond differently to different coaching, but I'm sure you're more adapt at calling someone a name, than actually knowing how this works.

Beached

Quote from: ricepig on December 23, 2017, 05:54:14 pm
Or, some players respond differently to different coaching, but I'm sure you're more adapt at calling someone a name, than actually knowing how this works.

Are you saying Bert & Co were coaching differently than other coaching staffs in the SEC? 

I don't know... there were definitely a few other under-performers worthy of their firing to go along with our crew. 

So... how would you say our players responded to their coaching this past season?  Also - how does whatever your answer is factor into the discussion about numbers and retention of players generating losing records? 

Al Boarland

Quote from: Tim Harris on December 21, 2017, 11:42:37 am
Exactly and not sure why several on this board have struggled to grasp this.

You can sign 25 a year and depending on how many redshirt that gives you anywhere from 100-125 kids in a 4/5 year span.  The only thing that is different is Arkansas traditionally has not "processed" as many kids as other programs do.  If you do not do that then you will have spells where you have to sign smaller classes regardless of who the HC is.

False. You can have 85 scholarship players.

jkstock04

Quote from: redeye on December 21, 2017, 04:08:58 pm
Exactly!

And it's a good thing that we're not able to sign many players.  Morris is taking over a well stocked cupboard, unlike when Bielema arrived.

Those who think otherwise, just don't understand.  We'd be in the same position, regardless of who we hired for our head coaching position, and we can sincerely thank Bielema for that.

It seems odd that we have fans pulling out their hair, because they don't understand the good position that we're in.  Morris could have arrived with half a team, like I think he did at SMU, and be forced to offer every player with at least 3 limbs.  Instead, he arrived with a well stocked team that only needed a few players.  The recruiting services will punish Arkansas for that, but that's their problem and not ours.
If this is true, we should easily win 8 plus games next season.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

jkstock04

Quote from: Beached on December 23, 2017, 05:58:00 pm
Are you saying Bert & Co were coaching differently than other coaching staffs in the SEC? 

I don't know... there were definitely a few other under-performers worthy of their firing to go along with our crew. 

So... how would you say our players responded to their coaching this past season?  Also - how does whatever your answer is factor into the discussion about numbers and retention of players generating losing records? 
You bring up a lot of good points in this thread which of course will be met with difference because people fall over themselves to defend Bielema as doing great things here.

I'm not sure the answer is for Morris to push a bunch of players out all at once. My opinion is that'll take care of itself...this spring in particular when these guys start getting worked 100% unlike the Bielema vacation era, you will see a number of defections. We NEED some shake up/something different to start happening...and I think we will get it.

The million dollar question, did Bielemas plan work? Numbers wise it has! This is almost exactly what the narrative was 5 years ago...but with an abysmal win/loss record. Was he just an idiot x's and o's guy who is terrible on gameday sitting on a gold mine? In a nice way that's what the homers are saying.

I believe more so what my eyes tell me...very little SEC talent on this team. I don't forget so easily like most do. Go back and watch the SEC championship game and look at those guys vs our guys. It's literally a men vs boys comparison. But we will see what Chad Morris can do with it...maybe I'm wrong and 100% of the problem was simply nice guy Bielema didn't know what to do with all that talent.
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys

ricepig

Quote from: Al Boarland on December 24, 2017, 07:15:20 am
False. You can have 85 scholarship players.
A little reading comprehension, he said you can sign 25 a year, nothing about how many would still be on scholarship. From his numbers, you have to do a lot of "processing" to get to the 85 limit, something we haven't done in the past.

ricepig

Quote from: Beached on December 23, 2017, 05:58:00 pm
Are you saying Bert & Co were coaching differently than other coaching staffs in the SEC? 

I don't know... there were definitely a few other under-performers worthy of their firing to go along with our crew. 

So... how would you say our players responded to their coaching this past season?  Also - how does whatever your answer is factor into the discussion about numbers and retention of players generating losing records? 

I would imagine each coaching staff does it differently in the SEC, wouldn't you? Look at the success David Williams had here, Kamara at Tennessee, and others at various schools. Not every coach uses every player to their best ability, just a fact of life.

As to our players, I'd say some responded better than others, some not so much. We have a new staff, we'll see how those still on the roster respond.

Pig in the Pokey

Quote from: jkstock04 on December 24, 2017, 10:29:58 am
If this is true, we should easily win 8 plus games next season.
we will win 7+
You must be on one if you think i aint on one! ¥420¥   «roastin da bomb in fayettenam» Purspirit Gang
@Slackaveli

SooieGeneris

Quote from: Freebrd on December 21, 2017, 03:51:19 pm
Listening to Coach Morris' presser, I recall him saying that we got 7 and maybe a couple more thursday or friday.  Then later he hoped to sign 9 or 10 at the february signing date.

He said 1-3 more in the early period possibly. We got 1. He said he hoped to sign 6-8 more in Feb. Since only Fulwider signed after Weds. that may mean 7-10 in Feb. I'm sure it partly depends on who we can get.

I don't think we will sign as many as 10 in Feb. just to sign, it will need to be players who fit his system and are better in his view than some on the current roster. We'll find out how it shakes out by then.
An Old OL coach who's team couldn't block a hat last season... If things aren't MUCH better this fall,  enjoy Hot Springs Sammy!

SooieGeneris

There has been a lot of talk about Cole Kelley, whether he fits CMs system or not. IMO, Kelley can play well in this system, but NOT at 268 lbs or whatever he weighed this year. He was listed at 268.

There are some players who are going to have to shed some lbs and get in MUCH better shape as far as endurance and stamina or they won't play, at least not on offense.

When you look at the discrepancy between our scoring in the 2nd half and our opponents, especially the last 2 seasons, it is GLARING. We were outscored badly in the 4th quarter and a large pct. of the points we did score in the 4th were in two games. OM and Coastal Carolina.

I am going to take a look at what the scoring differential was in 2nd halves vs Power 5s the last 2 years. You can bet CM or someone on the staff has been apprised of this or will be. Those kids' tongues are going to be dragging the ground in conditioning drills and some will have to lose weight.

Imagine a coach with girth like the ex-coach having to press players to lose weight and get in better shape. That could have been part of his problem. Morris doesn't have that problem.

When BBs proposed solution to 2nd half problems was to practice later in the day last spring, I suspected the problem would not be solved. We saw the result.

I also suspect when CM starts the offseason conditioning soon he will partly base the number of signees on how many of the current players buy in and how many resist.
An Old OL coach who's team couldn't block a hat last season... If things aren't MUCH better this fall,  enjoy Hot Springs Sammy!

 

MuskogeeHogFan

December 24, 2017, 03:11:38 pm #63 Last Edit: December 24, 2017, 06:32:58 pm by MuskogeeHogFan
Quote from: jkstock04 on December 24, 2017, 10:50:08 am
You bring up a lot of good points in this thread which of course will be met with difference because people fall over themselves to defend Bielema as doing great things here.

I'm not sure the answer is for Morris to push a bunch of players out all at once. My opinion is that'll take care of itself...this spring in particular when these guys start getting worked 100% unlike the Bielema vacation era, you will see a number of defections. We NEED some shake up/something different to start happening...and I think we will get it.

The million dollar question, did Bielemas plan work? Numbers wise it has! This is almost exactly what the narrative was 5 years ago...but with an abysmal win/loss record. Was he just an idiot x's and o's guy who is terrible on gameday sitting on a gold mine? In a nice way that's what the homers are saying.

I believe more so what my eyes tell me...very little SEC talent on this team. I don't forget so easily like most do. Go back and watch the SEC championship game and look at those guys vs our guys. It's literally a men vs boys comparison.
But we will see what Chad Morris can do with it...maybe I'm wrong and 100% of the problem was simply nice guy Bielema didn't know what to do with all that talent.

Look at this:

2007-2011 Drafted Players
                       ALA                       ARK                        AUB                       GEO                        FLA                       LSU   
             Drafted   Avg Stars   Drafted   Avg Stars   Drafted   Avg Stars   Drafted   Avg Stars   Drafted   Avg Stars   Drafted   Avg Stars
   Off        10            3.3           11          3.2            7          3.4            12           3.3          13          3.7           15           3.7
   Def         9            2.6            4           2.5           12         2.8            14           3.9          14          3.5           15           3.9
   Tot        19           2.9           15          3.0            19         3.0            26           3.6          27          3.6           30           3.8
      

2012-2017 Drafted Players                                 
                      ALA                         ARK                       AUB                        GEO                        FLA                        LSU   
            Drafted     Avg Stars   Drafted   Avg Stars   Drafted   Avg Stars   Drafted   Avg Stars   Drafted   Avg Stars   Drafted   Avg Stars
   Off        21             4.1          17           3.3            9          3.4            14          4.0           14          3.9           15           4.1
   Def       29             4.1            8           3.3            9          4.0            14          3.9           23          4.1           25           3.6
   Tot       50             4.1           25          3.3           18          3.7            28          4.0           37          4.0           40           3.8

Look at the differences from one time period to another. Obviously we had more talent, at least the NFL thought so. And we did increase the rated talent level from when they were signed, especially on defense. Ordinarily that would seem great for us but the results (W-L) might have been better if all of the other aspects of the game (game planning, scheme, adjustments, coaching decisions) had increased in value as well. Additionally, look at the competition and how they raised the bar in both recruiting value and production.

It's great to improve recruiting and for that to reflect in the number of players that you are sending to the NFL, but we didn't keep pace with everyone else, not even Auburn (though closer to them than others) and they still out-schemed us most of the time.
Go Hogs Go!

searkhogfan


MuskogeeHogFan

Go Hogs Go!

GuvHog

Quote from: jkstock04 on December 24, 2017, 10:29:58 am
If this is true, we should easily win 8 plus games next season.

With the exception of a new HC's  first year, Arkansas should win at least 8 regular season games every year.
Bleeding Razorback Red Since Birth!!!

parallaxpig

Quote from: Pudgepork on December 21, 2017, 01:46:44 pm
Bret recruited players with talent.   I'm many cases, those players have been stuck on fbe sidelines.
The cupboard isn't bare, they need a coaching staff who will teach and actually use them. 

Bret recruited players who behave.   It's time to mix in some fire breathing defensive freaks that loves contact. 
See the ball Bobby, Get me the ball Bobby, go get me the ball

There is enough talent on offensive side to be successful "if" they can coach up the offensive line to block the scheme they need. Now on the defensive side we got a problem. That problem would be called speed. We don't have it. Don't know if Coach Morris was sending a message his first day speaking to team and hog nation but when he said you either have speed or your chasing speed. We definitely have been chasing speed for awhile........
noun: parallax<br />the effect whereby the position or direction of an object appears to differ when viewed from different positions,

RaisinHog

There is some promising players on defense .. Kevin challoway was a top 10 corner , brown was a top 10 saftey , pulley should be back , Harris all sec lb , grenlaw freshmen sec team , agim is a beast .. there is enough tallent there too field a competitive defense

ChicoHog

Quote from: SooieGeneris on December 24, 2017, 12:28:45 pm
There has been a lot of talk about Cole Kelley, whether he fits CMs system or not. IMO, Kelley can play well in this system, but NOT at 268 lbs or whatever he weighed this year. He was listed at 268.

There are some players who are going to have to shed some lbs and get in MUCH better shape as far as endurance and stamina or they won't play, at least not on offense.

When you look at the discrepancy between our scoring in the 2nd half and our opponents, especially the last 2 seasons, it is GLARING. We were outscored badly in the 4th quarter and a large pct. of the points we did score in the 4th were in two games. OM and Coastal Carolina.

I am going to take a look at what the scoring differential was in 2nd halves vs Power 5s the last 2 years. You can bet CM or someone on the staff has been apprised of this or will be. Those kids' tongues are going to be dragging the ground in conditioning drills and some will have to lose weight.

Imagine a coach with girth like the ex-coach having to press players to lose weight and get in better shape. That could have been part of his problem. Morris doesn't have that problem.

When BBs proposed solution to 2nd half problems was to practice later in the day last spring, I suspected the problem would not be solved. We saw the result.

I also suspect when CM starts the offseason conditioning soon he will partly base the number of signees on how many of the current players buy in and how many resist.
I think a big part of our second half issues was not conditioning but failure to make adjustments to match opponents adjustments.  Our offense usually came out and had a good game plan for the first half.  Then our opponent would make adjustments but we never could counter their adjustment and failed miserably in the second half.  Much of it was execution and turnovers but also we just didn't figure out what to do. 

We will find out about our talent level as these guys make or don't make the NFL.  Personally I don't think we have much talent, especially difference maker type talent.  We have a lot of decent players but very few studs.  I'm hoping the new staff can recruit some studs and maybe develop some good players into great players.