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Ranking the Games

Started by Oklahawg, July 19, 2015, 09:29:27 pm

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Oklahawg

July 19, 2015, 09:29:27 pm
A fun exercise that allows us to assess the relative strength/weakness of the schedule: ranking the games by difficulty. Typically, you will win any game you deem weaker than the least-likely win. It does not require that you predict wins/losses, just rank the opponents by difficulty.

WEAKEST:
UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
MS State
A&M
Tennessee
Missouri
Ole Miss
LSU
Auburn
Alabama
STRONGEST:
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

Oklahawg

July 19, 2015, 09:31:56 pm #1
I see Missouri and MS State as easier games because they are at home. Similarly, LSU and Ole Miss are tougher as road games. Bama, the road game, thus slots "harder" than Auburn, the home game.

To me, LSU and OM are a "push". We tend to play LSU better but the LSU atmosphere can be more daunting. What is hard to tell is how the season's progress affects those two. A couple of disappointing losses and the game becomes much more winnable. Both teams have imposing potential but noteworthy weaknesses lurking in the depth chart.
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra
 

Demaghog

July 19, 2015, 09:38:38 pm #2
Missouri lost their 2 top DEs, and just lost a starting DT due to a car wreck (Brantley). I think that's too much to replace, so I would move up Missouri just after A&M. And we have that game at home.

sowmonella

July 19, 2015, 09:49:12 pm #3
We will beat Auburn. :razorback:
Not trying to brag or make anyone jealous but I can still fit into the same pair of socks I wore in high school.
Proud member since August 2003

Cinco de Hogo

July 19, 2015, 10:05:02 pm #4
WEAKEST:
UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
MS State
Missouri
A&M
Ole Miss
Tennessee
LSU
Auburn
Alabama
STRONGEST:

MissippHog

July 19, 2015, 11:10:58 pm #5
WEAKEST:
UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
MS State
Missouri
A&M
Tennessee
Auburn
Ole Miss
LSU
Alabama
STRONGEST:

Hawgzinbowlz

July 19, 2015, 11:42:58 pm #6
Ranking with a W/L

WEAKEST:
W : UT-Martin (High Level Scrimmage)
W : UTEP (Dialing it in)
W : Toledo (Another High Level Scrimmage)
W : Texas Tech (Not a Prayer that TT Wins in Fayetteville)
W : MS State (Lost Too Much)
W : Missouri (Payback At DWRRS)
W : Tennessee (We're on a Faster Trajectory)
W : A&M (We'll get a Tough Win)
W : Auburn (At DWRRS/CBB has this one Circled)
?? : Ole Miss (Tough at Home)
?? : LSU (Very Difficult Environment)
L  : Alabama (The 800# Gorilla/Particularly in BD)
STRONGEST

MuskogeeHogFan

July 20, 2015, 07:33:46 am #7
I'll go with this.

Weakest to strongest:

UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
MS State
Tennessee
A&M
Ole Miss
Auburn
Missouri
LSU
Alabama


Go Hogs Go!

Oklahawg

July 20, 2015, 03:45:05 pm #8
Quote from: MuskogeeHogFan on July 20, 2015, 07:33:46 am
I'll go with this.

Weakest to strongest:

UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
MS State
Tennessee
A&M
Ole Miss
Auburn
Missouri
LSU
Alabama




I tried to do wins and losses for the entire conference. Came up with 6-2 for UA, losses at Bama and Ole Miss, but it might be at LSU. I have us winning all home games and Tennessee. Auburn is a mystery (as the other thread indicates better than I am here): media darlings courtesy of Gus taking a knee at media days, or we are missing the talent that wasn't needed last year that is as good or better than what played last year??

I can't see MS State winning many. A&M will struggle away from Kyle Field. Who is equipped to win on the road? Bama, Arkansas. Should Ole Miss or LSU be included or are they too inexperienced where it matters to be a good road team? (Leaving the east alone for a moment...)
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

widespreadsooie

July 20, 2015, 03:48:48 pm #9
WEAKEST:
UT-Martin
UTEP
Texas Tech
Toledo
MS State
Missouri
Tennessee
Ole Miss
A&M
Auburn
LSU
Alabama
STRONGEST

widespreadsooie

July 20, 2015, 03:51:40 pm #10
Main differences in my perception is OM and TN are over rated while A&M is under rated. I'm scared of A&M's offense, they are loaded.

Lake City Hog

July 20, 2015, 05:18:22 pm #11
Here is my take with explanations. TIFWIW

WEAKEST:
UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
MS State
Missouri              Losses on D and us being at home moves them down a bit.
Tennessee
A&M                  Offensive Fire-Power, Chavis & Neutral Site moves them up.
LSU                  Chavis drops them down just below OM.
Ole Miss           OM will have another good defensive team and they have Home Field.
Auburn
Alabama         Til we beat them straight up they will be our hardest game.
STRONGEST:

Biggus Piggus

July 20, 2015, 05:20:23 pm #12
UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
Missouri
Tennessee
MS State
Ole Miss
LSU
Auburn
A&M
Alabama
[CENSORED]!
 

Biggus Piggus

July 20, 2015, 05:26:32 pm #13
Ole Miss opens SEC play at Alabama on Sept. 19, then has Vanderbilt at home and Florida on the road. They will blow off the froth early. Middle of schedule -- mid October -- are New Mexico State and Memphis, one turd and one good game.

Then they have TAM (home), Auburn (road) and Arkansas -- sixth SEC game, Nov. 7. They might have three losses by then. If the RBBs have 0-1 loss by then, it will be a barnburner.

They talk about how they are shooting for our game, but it's hard to shoot for a November game until you get there.
[CENSORED]!

MuskogeeHogFan

July 20, 2015, 05:45:22 pm #14
Quote from: Oklahawg on July 20, 2015, 03:45:05 pm
I tried to do wins and losses for the entire conference. Came up with 6-2 for UA, losses at Bama and Ole Miss, but it might be at LSU. I have us winning all home games and Tennessee. Auburn is a mystery (as the other thread indicates better than I am here): media darlings courtesy of Gus taking a knee at media days, or we are missing the talent that wasn't needed last year that is as good or better than what played last year??

I can't see MS State winning many. A&M will struggle away from Kyle Field. Who is equipped to win on the road? Bama, Arkansas. Should Ole Miss or LSU be included or are they too inexperienced where it matters to be a good road team? (Leaving the east alone for a moment...)

I like our chances against everyone that we play but some are going to be a more difficult "out" than others, obviously. Have we learned to win on the road at a venue that isn't considered to be "neutral"? Ultimately I think that tells our tale this year.

Ole Miss will be p.o.'d and laying for us this year in Oxford, but I don't think that will matter. We will win, again.

Despite lingering questions about Auburn, by the time we play them they will be a better team, but I still think that we win.

The games that make me nervous are Missouri (even though at RRS) because Pinkel seems to find a way to get the most out of his team and he will have all season to develop them.

In Baton Rouge for LSU (that is usually a tough out).

And at Alabama for their Homecoming. They remember last year and the close call and they don't want to be embarrassed for Homecoming. They have question marks as well, but more overall talent that they can dip into.
Go Hogs Go!

PorcineSublime

July 20, 2015, 06:28:22 pm #15
Weakest:
UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
Missouri
MS State
A&M
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Auburn
LSU
Alabama
Strongest:
I think that Auburn will be tough, but we are at home so I like our chances. I look at our game last year at Missouri and unless they improve, we win. Brandon was practically throwing underhand and we still almost won. LSU will be very tough as they will be looking for a get even kind of game. Although they have no proven QB they are quite talented elsewhere. Bama will be, well, Bama. Until we beat them we will have to assume they still have our number.
Sittin in the morning sun, I'll be sittin here when evening comes.

AugustaHog

July 20, 2015, 08:03:59 pm #16
Weakest:
UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
Miss St
TAMU
Mizzou
Tennessee
Ole Miss
LSU
Auburn
Bama
Strongest:

I have to rate all home games besides Auburn below the road games.  MSU lost a lot so I rate them the weakest.  I think we matchup well with the Ags in Dallas.  Mizzou doesn't scare me, but you can't deny the job Pinkle has done. They will not be as easy as they look right now.  UT and OM will be tough but winnable road games.  LSU gets the nod over them due to Death Valley and the potential for a night game in Cajun country.  Auburn will be a fun game.  I'm not sure how good they are, but there is no denying they have talent.  Bama is our kryptonite.  They will always be #1 until we prove we can beat them. 

ChiTown27

July 20, 2015, 08:12:33 pm #17
WEAKEST:
UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
Missouri
Ole Miss
LSU
MS State
Tennessee
Alabama
A&M
Auburn
STRONGEST:
"A government that robs Peter to pay Paul
can always depend on the support of Paul."

George Bernard Shaw

Oklahawg

July 20, 2015, 10:05:04 pm #18
Good commentary, fellas.

Biggus, interesting where you rate A&M. I presume still concerned about the UA defense?
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

Locutus_of_Boar

July 20, 2015, 10:17:26 pm #19
Weakest to strongest:

UT-Martin

UTEP

Texas Tech - Cliff will make some B12 team a nice OC next year.
Toledo

MS State - it took the worst Arkansas team ever for MSU to get its one win at Arkansas
A&M - Chavis defense isn't really compatible with Sumlin's offense.

Tennessee - schedule makes it difficult for Vols to focus on Arkansas
LSU - this will be Les' last year

Auburn - 2 weeks to get ready for Gus's homecoming
Missouri - plays tougher than expected
Ole Miss - home field & favorable schedule

Alabama - even in Saban's fading years still the measuring stick

Biggus Piggus

July 21, 2015, 06:29:36 am #20
Quote from: Oklahawg on July 20, 2015, 10:05:04 pm
Good commentary, fellas.

Biggus, interesting where you rate A&M. I presume still concerned about the UA defense?

Just expect the Aggies to be better than LSU and Auburn.
[CENSORED]!

Hogarusa

July 21, 2015, 07:03:19 am #21
WEAKEST:
UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
MS State
Missouri
Tennessee
A&M
Ole Miss
Auburn
LSU
Alabama
STRONGEST:
I'll ride the wave where it takes me

jkstock04

July 21, 2015, 07:36:38 am #22


WEAKEST:
UT-Martin
UTEP
Toledo
Texas Tech
MS State
A&M
Mizzou
Tennessee
LSU
Auburn
Alabama
STRONGEST:
Thanks for the F Shack. 

Love,

Dirty Mike and the Boys
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