SOUND OFF: MEDIA PREDICTS AUBURN TO WIN 2015 SEC CHAMPIONSHIP

[Cinco de Hogo]

Dak Prescott = first-team all-SEC quarterback, 3,400 passing yards and 27 TD passes, scored 15 TDs by himself.

Jeremy Johnson = 828 career passing yards. Started one half of one game. Ever. Now a junior.

I know but I'm not talking about the past, I said future NFLer.  Awbarn and Johnson will be better than Dak and MSU this year.  Prescott may statistically have a better year...or not. 

[ballz2thewall]

i've only read the OP.

i'd say AU is the best bet presently.

and facing GA in the east.

[12247]

Who backs up Johnson at Aubbie?  Quite often, its difficult to get through a season with just 1 AB.  We should know.  This coming season, QBs will be green at several locations and the backups should be greener.  We should be better at 1st and 2nd string at QB.  I expect Gus will have his backup QB ready but you can only get so ready in such a short time.  One wrong hit on a starting QB this season could move a possible SEC winner to middle of the pack.  Not a lot of deep experience out there anywhere.

[hawginbigd1]

Dak Prescott = first-team all-SEC quarterback, 3,400 passing yards and 27 TD passes, scored 15 TDs by himself.

Jeremy Johnson = 828 career passing yards. Started one half of one game. Ever. Now a junior.

Dak Prescott is very talented, but he doesn't scream elite QB to me. I said it before last season, Marshall being suspended was a bad thing for us! I saw enough of Johnson when he came in for Marshall for a couple series against us in 2013 to form the opinion that he has elite potential. I have posted here and elsewhere Gus was playing the wrong guy. I believe everybody will reach the same conclusion by mid season!

[HiggiePiggy]

Dak Prescott is very talented, but he doesn't scream elite QB to me. I said it before last season, Marshall being suspended was a bad thing for us! I saw enough of Johnson when he came in for Marshall for a couple series against us in 2013 to form the opinion that he has elite potential. I have posted here and elsewhere Gus was playing the wrong guy. I believe everybody will reach the same conclusion by mid season!

Not many coaches are going to just toss in a new guy after the guy you have at qb took you to the national championship game the year before.   

[AugustaHog]

I'm not sure I'm buying the immediate turnaround from Muschamp for that D.  I figure Gussy will score a bunch because that's what he does.  Johnson is unproven but he has more game than some of the guys GM has done well with in the past.  I don't see anybody with less than 2 losses in the division.  I would have no problem picking the Hogs, but the schedule will be tough.  AU or Bama have had the recent track record so it's easy to see why they are getting the love. 

[duckman]

The problem with Auburn and A&M, their hurry up style puts tremendous pressure on the defense.  Whether they score on a possession or not the D is quickly back on the field.  I don't care who your DC is, if your D is tired and worn out you are beatable.  PERIOD  Muschamp and Chavis will be pulling their collective hair out this season.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The problem with Auburn and A&M, their hurry up style puts tremendous pressure on the defense.  Whether they score on a possession or not the D is quickly back on the field.  I don't care who your DC is, if your D is tired and worn out you are beatable.  PERIOD  Muschamp and Chavis will be pulling their collective hair out this season.

There is always a lot of discussion about this but the truth is that on average, A&M's defense was on the field about 4.4 plays more per game than their offense and the average number of plays per drive were 5.6 for their offense and 5.9 for their defense.

Auburn's situation last year was a little different, but not like you might think. Auburn's offense averaged 72.2 plays per game and 6.0 plays per drive. Their defense was on the field for an average of 70.3 plays per game and 5.5 plays per drive.

So A&M did leave their defense on the field a little longer on average than their offense but Auburn's offense spent more time on the field than did their defense. I'm not sure how a well conditioned defense could be "gassed" by spending 4 or so more plays per game on the field than their offense, let alone being in a situation at Auburn where they were on the field less than their offense.

[lefty08]

I don't think the problem with either defense is being tired, I just don't think they get the reps. We saw the same thing with Petrino here. Hiring a great mind will only marginally help if the players don't get the reps in practice. Ellis was no slouch as a D C.

Also something thatbdoesnt get mentioned much is the fact of what kind of offense the defense sees during practice. Practicing against that offense every day in practice can make you efficient, but it can also make you a bit soft

[duckman]

There is always a lot of discussion about this but the truth is that on average, A&M's defense was on the field about 4.4 plays more per game than their offense and the average number of plays per drive were 5.6 for their offense and 5.9 for their defense.

Auburn's situation last year was a little different, but not like you might think. Auburn's offense averaged 72.2 plays per game and 6.0 plays per drive. Their defense was on the field for an average of 70.3 plays per game and 5.5 plays per drive.

So A&M did leave their defense on the field a little longer on average than their offense but Auburn's offense spent more time on the field than did their defense. I'm not sure how a well conditioned defense could be "gassed" by spending 4 or so more plays per game on the field than their offense, let alone being in a situation at Auburn where they were on the field less than their offense.

Time not number of plays...

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I don't think the problem with either defense is being tired, I just don't think they get the reps. We saw the same thing with Petrino here. Hiring a great mind will only marginally help if the players don't get the reps in practice. Ellis was no slouch as a D C.

Also something thatbdoesnt get mentioned much is the fact of what kind of offense the defense sees during practice. Practicing against that offense every day in practice can make you efficient, but it can also make you a bit soft

Good point. If you look at the 14 teams that ran more than 1,000 offensive plays last season, they had an average total offense ranking of #10.6 but those same teams had an average total defense ranking of #55.9. So there may be something to that theory with the notable exceptions of three teams that were included in those 1,000+ play offenses, who also had top 20 defenses in Ohio State, TCU and Alabama.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Time not number of plays...

You are right that on a per game average it appears that A&M left their defense on the field 7:30 longer than their offense. Auburn wasn't nearly as bad with a difference of 1:46 per game spread across 70.3 defensive plays.

[PonderinHog]

Excuse me, but where in this whole thing do you tie Muschamp to Brent Venables? I missed it somehow.

Vicariously through Gibbs   Didn't they breathe the same air in Norman   Or was it Southern Hills?

[Theolesnort]

Auburn is probably the most complete team on paper. Everyone else in the league has a glaring weakness in one form or another. They are a pretty safe pick this season, IMO

Here is my problem with your assessment. Some people who think they are in the know say Auburn while they do have some great talent on the defensive side of the ball has recruited mainly for the offensive side. So to them while they do now have Muschamp they have a real problem with numbers and depth on the defensive side of the ball much like A&M might have. Conjecture? Yeah but they just might have a point so saying Auburn is the most complete team on paper could be wrong. As for me, I dunno.

[Theolesnort]

The curiosity to me: Last season, Malzahn had every chance to promote Johnson to starting QB, build his offense around this kid for the next three seasons. Johnson played the first half of the Arkansas game and threw for 200 yards, huge number. Then Malzahn felt compelled to rely the rest of the season -- beginning with the second half of the Arkansas game -- on a future rookie free agent NFL defensive back wannabe. Nick Marshall's ability to run the read option was more important, in Malzahn's mind, than Johnson's ability to run and throw.

Auburn fans told us all last offseason that Malzahn was going to TRANSFORM Marshall's ability as a run-pass dual threat. He was going to "Cam" his ass! And Marshall was a very inconsistent passer.

Now we are to believe that Auburn is just fine living without Marshall's mastery of the read option. Johnson is a perfect fit! Maybe Malzahn really can change his stripes after spending a whole offseason working his offense around Johnson. It is going to be interesting to see what he comes up with.

I too was puzzled by Malzahn's choice of Marshall over Johnson last season.

[hogfan14]

Who backs up Johnson at Aubbie?  Quite often, its difficult to get through a season with just 1 AB.  We should know.  This coming season, QBs will be green at several locations and the backups should be greener.  We should be better at 1st and 2nd string at QB.  I expect Gus will have his backup QB ready but you can only get so ready in such a short time.  One wrong hit on a starting QB this season could move a possible SEC winner to middle of the pack.  Not a lot of deep experience out there anywhere.

Probably Sean White. I think he played in the same all-star game as Peavey did when they were coming out of high school. RS Freshman

[Biggus Piggus]

I don't understand the "Auburn is the most complete team" conclusion, either. First, the extremes to which Malzahn has gone to throw Ellis Johnson under the bus are surprising. Malzahn has leaked out gobs of details to the media about how disorganized and uncoached the Auburn defense was under Johnson. All that is pretty hard to believe. I think they are spinning like mad for recruiting purposes. In the recent past, Auburn lost head-to-head in recruiting for some top defensive talent, because those players didn't believe Auburn would have an elite defense. In typical Auburn fashion, they went out and made a splash hire, grossly overspending because they can, but it didn't change their roster. Not yet.

Second,  people still assume Malzahn can take any assemblage of offensive players and create a great offense. That has already been disproven. Auburn's offense fell off in Malzahn's last season as OC, and last year it did too. Auburn scored 20 against K-State, 23 against Mississippi State, 7 against Georgia. Somehow, the Tigers couldn't outscore Wisconsin.

Auburn has some interesting backfield talent, but do the Tigers have anybody really exceptional to run the football? Lack of a great run threat was the main reason why Auburn slipped last season.

This year, they are patching together the offensive line. People still remember OT Shon Coleman as a onetime 5-star recruit, great story for being a cancer survivor, but he was not very good last season. The guards and center will be new starters. Depth is very thin. They don't have enough competition at the tackles. They are counting on Alex Kozan, coming off back surgery. Kozan missed the 2014 season and spring practice, too.

At receiver, D'haquille Williams is back, legit threat, but Sammie Coates and Quan Bray are gone. They have young players to move up; not sure they have another Coates. C.J. Uzomah and Brandon Fulse are both gone at tight end. Auburn has always been better when it had a good tight end to work into Malzahn's scheme.

Do you see the picture here? On offense, media guys assume Malzahn can just reshuffle things, replace seven starters, and be better than last year. On defense, they claim Muschamp can take a similar group + healthy Carl Lawson and be much improved.

[hawginbigd1]

Biggus they signed 8 of the top 300 defensive players this year including the #1 overall player, so they are going to have some talent on defense. Cowart and probably a couple more will start or play a ton right away.

[duckman]

Auburn's offense is much like seeing a pitcher for the first time in baseball, once you have seen it a couple of times it becomes easier to figure out.  IMO

[Biggus Piggus]

Biggus they signed 8 of the top 300 defensive players this year including the #1 overall player, so they are going to have some talent on defense. Cowart and probably a couple more will start or play a ton right away.

Yep. Give me opponents that want to start true freshmen on defense.

[hawginbigd1]

Yep. Give me opponents that want to start true freshmen on defense.

I hear ya but not all Freshman are created equally, some are legit starters day one.

[Biggus Piggus]

I hear ya but not all Freshman are created equally, some are legit starters day one.

Go ahead. Name some true freshmen who were feared starters on defense. Even the best frosh, like Myles Garrett, have flaws that can be exploited. He was fine playing against pass-happy opponents, not so good against power teams. Very few ever make as much of an impact as Garrett did, and he wasn't a player to be feared. He probably will be this year, now that he is bigger, stronger and more experienced.

[The Kig]

Many in the media are comprised of people who may be primarily paid to focus on one school or handle national generic coverage.  It is truly difficult to be proficient in the actual strengths and weaknesses of 14 different teams.  So they make a semi-educated (potentially in some cases "homer") guess.  If they haven't done their homework, it is easy to fall into the "buzz" trap of conversation about certain teams.  If everyone else is talking about how good Bama is supposed to be, then they must be good... 

Top to bottom, the SEC West is pretty close to being neck-in-neck.  There aren't likely to be any 52-0 in division games.  An injury here or there, a "bad" call, a "miracle" play, a dropped pass, an alignment mistake, a trip/fall are going to significantly affect the final order. 

I "think" we are much better than some teams that beat us last year... but we won't know until the clock ticks to zero. 

[bigdaddyhawg]

Who backs up Johnson at Aubbie?  Quite often, its difficult to get through a season with just 1 AB.  We should know. 

Whoever it is, every Auburn fan will tell for certain that he's better and more talented than the guy ahead of him.

[Biggus Piggus]

Top to bottom, the SEC West is pretty close to being neck-and-neck.

This was the main takeaway for the smarter people in SEC media. The West has no obvious, prohibitive favorite. Perfect year for a new name to rise up.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Auburn's offense is much like seeing a pitcher for the first time in baseball, once you have seen it a couple of times it becomes easier to figure out.  IMO

Exactly how is that differant from any other offense?  Has Gus became Nutt 2.0 or something.

[lefty08]

May be a little off topic, but I see it fits here. I read an article the other day that quoted several prospects have backed off Auburn in the recruiting game. Their reason was They aren't confident in Malzahn preparing them for the NFL. Malzahn threw Ellis under the bus for sure, but it seems a little early in his tenure to have to save face. Gus didn't do anything to help his expectations by some miracle plays and getting to the title game year 1. I think he realizes he can't sustain that over the long haul and recruits are noticing as well. He felt like he had to make a huge hire and he did that. We all know he wouldn't make a huge hire on the offensive side of the ball. I'll try to find the article, but I read a lot haha

[Theolesnort]

Yeah I was tooting Malzahn's horn this time last year. I was swayed by his first year at Auburn and how as the season unfolded they just got better and better. This past season it seemed to me that they folded later in the year so for me this season I am taking a wait and see attitude as far as Auburn.

[Trottsky]

The "media" had Auburn second and SCarolina third in last year's prepoll. That worked out.

[BPsTheMan]

who cares what the media predicts?

that's my take

[bigdaddyhawg]

Exactly how is that differant from any other offense?  Has Gus became Nutt 2.0 or something.

You must not be old enough to remember the Packers under Vince Lombardi.

Trust me, there are ways to have great offense without high school trickery.

[Theolesnort]

You must not be old enough to remember the Packers under Vince Lombardi.

Trust me, there are ways to have great offense without high school trickery.

What I can remember best from the Packers under Vince was not their being overly talented but their being overly tough and tough minded just like their coach.

[Cinco de Hogo]

You must not be old enough to remember the Packers under Vince Lombardi.

Trust me, there are ways to have great offense without high school trickery.

I'm 58 so no I don't really remember the VL Packer teams but on the other hand I haven't seen any real comparison to the since maybe the days of the Steel Curtain.  The NFL is a mixed bag and I'm not too old right now to recognize that. 

When is the last time a team that could be compared with those Packer teams won a Super Bowl?  The Riggins era Redskins?

What I don't understand is why you care how Atkansas wins if we win a lot and that included a NC and a runner up. 

Geez I would get behind a kindergarten offense if it won.

Now if you wanted to talk about the cheating at Auburn I would say hang em...hang em high!

[bigdaddyhawg]

I'm 58 so no I don't really remember the VL Packer teams but on the other hand I haven't seen any real comparison to the since maybe the days of the Steel Curtain.  The NFL is a mixed bag and I'm not too old right now to recognize that. 

When is the last time a team that could be compared with those Packer teams won a Super Bowl?  The Riggins era Redskins?

What I don't understand is why you care how Atkansas wins if we win a lot and that included a NC and a runner up. 

Geez I would get behind a kindergarten offense if it won.

Now if you wanted to talk about the cheating at Auburn I would say hang em...hang em high!

Wasn't inviting a philosophical discussion, just addressing your point.

But, yes, for me it makes a difference how we win.  I simply don't enjoy watching CFB with no defense.

My first love growing up was basketball, and until the last twenty years or so I loved CBB.  But idiots took over the game and now it's a free throw contest interrupted with brief periods of one-on-one.  I hate it, and I rarely even watch the sport I grew up loving so much.

For me, football without great defense is boring and unwatchable.

[Hoggish1]

Dumbest prediction of the last 115 years. LMAO!

[Cinco de Hogo]

Wasn't inviting a philosophical discussion, just addressing your point.

But, yes, for me it makes a difference how we win.  I simply don't enjoy watching CFB with no defense.

My first love growing up was basketball, and until the last twenty years or so I loved CBB.  But idiots took over the game and now it's a free throw contest interrupted with brief periods of one-on-one.  I hate it, and I rarely even watch the sport I grew up loving so much.

For me, football without great defense is boring and unwatchable.

This I don't understand.  How many times in our history have we had great defense?   

[bigdaddyhawg]

This I don't understand.  How many times in our history have we had great defense?   

Great defense has been a Razorback tradition, until the last 15 years or so.

The NC team won on a great defense and kicking game. 

Ever heard of 'the game of the century'?  Arkansas held a great offensive team to two TD's, and Texas was lucky as hell to get that!

Lou Holtz's teams played great defense.  Hatfield's teams played tough, scrappy defense.

Any more time spent educating you on CFB you're going to have to come up with some coin, friend.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Great defense has been a Razorback tradition, until the last 15 years or so.

The NC team won on a great defense and kicking game. 

Ever heard of 'the game of the century'?  Arkansas held a great offensive team to two TD's, and Texas was lucky as hell to get that!

Lou Holtz's teams played great defense.  Hatfield's teams played tough, scrappy defense.

Any more time spent educating you on CFB you're going to have to come up with some coin, friend.

I think you are stuck in the memories of you youth.  Add up all the years we have even had a good defense and that leaves about 75% of all the years you have watched Arkansas Football thst you would have been terribly bored according to you standards.  If your standard is great defense well I've seen games were we played great defense but very very few seasons.  Peso's for your worthless education. 

[Biggus Piggus]

Arkansas's defense was excellent in 1991-94, 1998-99 and 2006. It was close to that quality in 1995, 2000-03 and 2011.

Your spin is off kilter, dude.

[Biggus Piggus]

Going a little further back: Arkansas allowed 159 points in 12 games during the 1984 season. Think that's good? The Hogs allowed 146 points in 12 games during the 1985 season.

In 1982: 139 points allowed, 12 games.

TRADITION OF STRONG DEFENSE. Not the occasional anecdote. STFU.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Going a little further back: Arkansas allowed 159 points in 12 games during the 1984 season. Think that's good? The Hogs allowed 146 points in 12 games during the 1985 season.

In 1982: 139 points allowed, 12 games.

TRADITION OF STRONG DEFENSE. Not the occasional anecdote. STFU.

I think you need to read more and STFU as put in your own words.  Arkansas is NOT known for "great" defense.  Our history is bend but not break defense to go with slightly above avg offenses.  If you are arguing with that your probably not right about much of anything concerning Arkansas football.


If you care to read, my argument with this gentleman is that being a fan of Arkansas Football does not include it being a boring and unwatchable game IF great defense is not played.

Now what the future hold with CBB might be a new beginning in which great defense is played game after game, year after year and the gentleman might be able to enjoy Arkansas Football again, I hope he gets too.

[Biggus Piggus]

I think you need to read more and STFU as put in your own words.  Arkansas is NOT known for "great" defense.  Our history is bend but not break defense to go with slightly above avg offenses.  If you are arguing with that your probably not right about much of anything concerning Arkansas football.


If you care to read, my argument with this gentleman is that being a fan of Arkansas Football does not include it being a boring and unwatchable game IF great defense is not played.

Now what the future hold with CBB might be a new beginning in which great defense is played game after game, year after year and the gentleman might be able to enjoy Arkansas Football again, I hope he gets too.

Wow. "Bend but don't break" was associated with a tiny sliver of Razorback football history. You cast that as a blanket over the whole of it? I've broken down every season of Razorback football 100 different ways. You're working off vague anecdotes. You know nothing, it is clear.

[Cinco de Hogo]

Wow. "Bend but don't break" was associated with a tiny sliver of Razorback football history. You cast that as a blanket over the whole of it? I've broken down every season of Razorback football 100 different ways. You're working off vague anecdotes. You know nothing, it is clear.

Then that information didn't teach you much.  Go ahead, list our defensive ranking from 1964 to present.  If that adds up to great defense I will ask an administrator to cancel my membership.  Are you willing to do the same thing.  I'll even let you pick the judges.

[bigdaddyhawg]

I think you are stuck in the memories of you youth.  Add up all the years we have even had a good defense and that leaves about 75% of all the years you have watched Arkansas Football thst you would have been terribly bored according to you standards.  If your standard is great defense well I've seen games were we played great defense but very very few seasons.  Peso's for your worthless education. 

God bless you brother.

[Cinco de Hogo]

God bless you brother.

Blessings!

[bigdaddyhawg]

Blessings!

Thank you.

[JansterZ71]

The curiosity to me: Last season, Malzahn had every chance to promote Johnson to starting QB, build his offense around this kid for the next three seasons. Johnson played the first half of the Arkansas game and threw for 200 yards, huge number. Then Malzahn felt compelled to rely the rest of the season -- beginning with the second half of the Arkansas game -- on a future rookie free agent NFL defensive back wannabe. Nick Marshall's ability to run the read option was more important, in Malzahn's mind, than Johnson's ability to run and throw.

Auburn fans told us all last offseason that Malzahn was going to TRANSFORM Marshall's ability as a run-pass dual threat. He was going to "Cam" his ass! And Marshall was a very inconsistent passer.

Now we are to believe that Auburn is just fine living without Marshall's mastery of the read option. Johnson is a perfect fit! Maybe Malzahn really can change his stripes after spending a whole offseason working his offense around Johnson. It is going to be interesting to see what he comes up with.

See Auburn offense 2009 and Tulsa offense either 2007 or 2008.   Gus doesn't need a dual threat to put up big numbers.  Auburn will have the best Offense next year in the SEC.  That's not a shocker,  all the wait to see to believe stuff will be on the defensive side for AU.  But with the NFL talent on the front 7 and with Muschamp, they are getting the benifit of the doubt from the media.  Just a safe pick by the media.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

See Auburn offense 2009 and Tulsa offense either 2007 or 2008.   Gus doesn't need a dual threat to put up big numbers.  Auburn will have the best Offense next year in the SEC.  That's not a shocker,  all the wait to see to believe stuff will be on the defensive side for AU.  But with the NFL talent on the front 7 and with Muschamp, they are getting the benifit of the doubt from the media.  Just a safe pick by the media.

I think Gus is a good OC and will make the most of the talent that he has at his disposal, though there are some questions that have to be answered offensively.

Muschamp is a good DC but his biggest impact has come in the second year that he is in a program. So while I expect that Auburn's defense will be improved this year, it won't in any way compare to what he can do after year 1.

Bottom line, Auburn isn't going to be "THERE" just yet. Next year (2016) may be a different story.

[Steef]

I think Gus is a good OC and will make the most of the talent that he has at his disposal, though there are some questions that have to be answered offensively.

Muschamp is a good DC but his biggest impact has come in the second year that he is in a program. So while I expect that Auburn's defense will be improved this year, it won't in any way compare to what he can do after year 1.

Bottom line, Auburn isn't going to be "THERE" just yet. Next year (2016) may be a different story.

What year is their QB in? Seems I remember that he had to ride the bench a couple years and he's about to graduate. Have I got that right?

If so, they may have a newbie QB next year. That could be problematic for them.

Us, too.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

What year is their QB in? Seems I remember that he had to ride the bench a couple years and he's about to graduate. Have I got that right?

If so, they may have a newbie QB next year. That could be problematic for them.

Us, too.

Johnson (6-5, 240 lbs.) is going into this season as a Jr., and unless he has a great season and departs early for the NFL, he will be back. But even if he isn't, I think that their RS/Fr Sean White is the better QB, though he is smaller (6-0, 200 lbs.) which might make him seem like more of a "Read-Option" guy than a pocket passer. As much as I hate to say it, Gus will adapt his scheme to who he has at QB, and he is pretty good at that.